The Great Climate Flood Sting has hooked another big media fish. Recently the Mirror informed its bewildered, if rapidly vanishing, readers that much of London could be gone within 80 years, while large areas along the Humber and the Midlands could also disappear beneath the waves. Mirror reporter Sam Elliott-Gibbs notes the existence of “terrifying new maps” of the U.K. that predict towns and cities “will be vanishing into the sea”. Regular readers of the Daily Sceptic might already be observing the handiwork of Climate Central, a green billionaire-backed activist operation that specialises in custom-made flood catastrophes, usually aimed at local media.
Elliott-Gibbs informs his readers that the situation is bleak for many along the Humber – including Hull – “as the area becomes totally flooded, with a large portion of the Midlands submerged as well”. The Mirror prints a “terrifying” map showing water lapping Peterborough. The current annual rate of sea level rise is estimated by the U.S. weather service NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry to be 3.1 mm, with a 13% margin of error. Hull is four metres above sea level, so at the current rise it would take 1,290 years to be “totally flooded”. At eight metres above sea level, the current rise would leave Peterborough free of water for nearly three millennia.
These ludicrous forecasts, based partly on improbably high temperature increases, assume a sea level rise over 30 times faster than it is now. Elliott-Gibbs presses on: “If the sea level matches current forecasts, then other parts of the country could be in big trouble.” Coastal towns in Hampshire, Essex, Sussex and Kent are all said to be at serious risk. The bigger picture doesn’t escape the Mirror either. Belgium, Germany, Northern France and half of the Netherlands “are expected to be underwater by 2100”.
Climate Central is a well-funded green agitprop operation based in Princeton, New Jersey that provided the material for the Mirror story. Elliott-Gibbs obligingly notes that Climate Central “provides authoritative information to help the public and policymakers make sound decisions about climate and energy”. Meanwhile, the operation claims to work with news outlets, “to produce compelling and scientifically accurate feature stories”. On the flood stories, it supplies a free interactive map and web tools that are often used by local media to produce customised catastrophe copy.
Earlier this year, the Wiltshire Times reported that vast areas of south-west England could be under water by 2050 due to global warming. Among the sites that could be lost is Gloucester Cathedral, sited at an elevation of 19 metres. Last year, the Dorset Echo informed its readers that the waters would soon be lapping around the village of Lytchett Minster, a mere 17 metres above sea level.
Climate Central seems to be heavily backed by the Schmidt Family Foundation – money originally provided by Eric Schmidt, the former CEO and Chairman of Google. Serving on the board is Carl Ferenbach from the High Meadows Foundation and Fund. The flood project is said to be funded by 12 Foundations, including Schmidt and Prince Albert of Monaco. Among the activist academics involved is Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs at Princeton University. Oppenheimer is known for once noting: “We can’t let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialisation we have in the U.S. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are.”
Sea level rises are an easy hit for catastrophe forecasters. It is difficult to get a precise global figure, even with the help of orbiting satellites. As ice melts on large land surfaces such as Greenland, an enormous weight is lifted and surrounding land rises from the Earth’s mantle. This is seen in Oslo, which is currently rising 3mm a year from the sea due to ice melting over thousands of years in the ongoing deglaciation period. It is sometimes said that ice melting in Greenland has recently added 1mm a year to sea level rise. But recent evidence over the last decade suggests this process has slowed, with a possibility that the ice sheet actually increased in size in the year to August 2022.
In his recent 2021 state of the climate report, Professor Ole Humlum noted the difficulties surrounding accurate measurement of sea levels, even with the help of satellites. It is an imprecise science, with land gauges indicating a lower rise between 1-2mm.
Whatever the rise, it is hardly enough even to register on a longer trend going back to the lifting of the ice age around 14,000 years ago. In a detailed 2019 report on sea level and climate change, the American climatologist and writer Judith Curry concluded that recent changes in sea level are “within the range of natural sea level variability over the past several thousand years”.
Mirror, Mirror, on the wall
Who is the least inquiring of us all?
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
“Under Water” is also a term used in Real Estate to describe conditions when Real Estate values are driven down to the point that a mortgage holder owes more to the bank than their home is worth.
Under that definition, many properties in the UK might be “Under Water” well before 2100
Take a look at how the Federal Reserve is also playing into the climate change deception.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/federal-reserve-unveils-climate-risk-proposal-tor-big-banks-public-comment
I predict the bottom of the Thames will be underwater by 2100.
It’s already happened
It’s worse than we thought!!!!
Don’t be so sure if son of Beast from the East has its way-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/weather/topstories/met-office-issues-ice-warning-as-troll-of-trondheim-bears-down-on-britain/ar-AA14ZRXp
Children won’t know what water looks like.
There sure was a lot of the white “global warming” stuff in the accompanying pictures! How can that be!? That poor child is clearly being forced out in the cold!
3.1mm is just another lie
The tide gages give a steady ~2.1 since forever
Reference? Never seen anything above 1.8. There is a lot of room how to calculate the number, of course. Therefore, the global tide gauge number doesn’t make any sense, it’s purely a local problem.
Geologically stable tide gauges are mostly in the range 0.7mm – 1.8mm/year
And in the southern hemisphere, where they are probably more stable, sea levels are going nowhere:
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLD.shtml
The latest MSL in October ’22 is 4 inches lower than the first in May 1914 and the average monthly MSL for the last 1300 months is ~ 7 inches lower than the first recording.
Since water is heavy AND it appears to be gathering in the Northern Hemisphere AND that will affect the center of gravity making the Earth Top Heavy, this could be the Ultimate Tipping Point causing the poles to tip and flip … like Guam
Climate phiisics has slaughtered real physics. If earth’s climate ran on parameters, there would be no need for physical processes. Just let the climate models control the real climate change.
Rising northern hemisphere temperatures are the first solid indication of the termination of the modern interglacial.
Making snow is energy intensive. Every 10kg of snow releases the same energy to space as burning 1kg of coal. That energy went into an ocean surface a few months earlier to evaporate the water. Snow making is energy intensive and requires substantial ocean heat.
Northern ocean warming has a long way to go before it achieves the rate of evaporation to get southward migration of the permafrost but there are early indicators. After the migration starts, the ocean surface descent will follow.
Greenland and Iceland are gaining permanent ice. Scotland will follow in due course. Snow fall records will be a feature of climate reporting for the next 8,000 years.
Any location now covered in snow will have thick permanent ice within a few thousand years.
Gloucester Cathedral, like Roman Glevum before it, was built on a slightly higher piece of ground at the south of a lake between Gloucester and Tewkesbury. That lake has now gone and only the River Severn remains, bounded by its banks.
Except once a decade when the floods are bad.
The water level has dropped over the last millenium, mainly because of improved drainage.
It seems unlikely that we will forgt how to drain land and build se defences in the next 1000 years. The River Severn already has to cope with the Severn Bore (a periodic wave) so the banks have some leeway.
Witha ArtStudents™ running river basin conservation, it seems we already have…
And for everything else we have the Environment Agency
Tell me is the Environment Agency meant to prevent rivers from flooding or help areas like the Somerset Levels be flooded? Asking for a friend.
“The current annual rate of sea level rise is estimated by the
U.S. weather service NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry
to be 3.1 mm, with a 13% margin of error.”
____________________________________
No link. This LINK to Colorado University’s Sea Level Research Group
says 3.4 mm per year with acceleration of 0.084 ±0.025 mm/yr² which
has been shown here are WUWT to be manufactured by periodically
correctingrewriting the historical data.Satellite data goes back to 1992 and is not long enough to capture the
long term oscillations in the rate of sea level rise. Tide gauges go back
to 1807 and over thirty year periods show rates of sea level rise varying
from negative to positive.
The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (LINK) has monthly and
annual data for over 1200 tide gauges that can be easily downloaded
for analysis.
The link to the Colorado University graph also includes other graphs. Reference to the NOAA graph shows how the various satellites overlap and hence have to be “stitched” together.
I find it difficult to see how the Sentinel-6 can be shown at this stage as the overlap has only been about 1 year.
The overlap for the various pairs of Jason satellites is very good but that between Topex and Jason 1 shows that there may be a problem with one of them – probably Topex. The CU graph indicates the results for each satellite are plotted from the launch of that satellite but the initial couple of years of readings for Jason 1 look more like the Topex readings.
Re the quoted “accelerations” in case any or new readers missed them may I refer to my 2 contributions on this
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/14/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis-part-2/
Thanks for those two links. It’s difficult to get past the fact that the data for the various CU releases over the years changes. Here’s what that looks like when the the rate of sea level rise since the beginning is plotted out for several of those releases. Each of the lines on that graph should fall on top of each other, they don’t. To an average person that looks like Dr. Nerem’s research group is rewriting the historical data.
From the “Part 2” Link:
“This indicates how short periods can totally distort any “acceleration” estimations”
Yes the period since 1992 is short enough compared to 1807 to distort any trend extrapolated out to 2100.
But that’s what being done and our wonderful one sided media reports it with hysterical headlines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gmW9GEUYvA You can’t measure sea level rise from a satellite.
“The official name of the four-campus system is the University of Colorado, and the acronym is CU.”
I’ll believe the satellite measurements once they stop putting in an adjustment for geostatic rebound from the absence of glaciers.
Satellite Altimetry is nothing but a scam, their measurement error is 1.2 meters.
No, they can reach a much higher precision when a satellite passes directly above a sea surface with no waves.
According to the greenistas wave power is a viable alternative to wind and solar. So by definition it must always be a bit wavy, so the satellite is always dealing with waves
/sarc
What is wave length of the radar used? The should determine everything.
Poseidon-3B is two-frequency altimeter: 13.575 GHz and 5.3 GHz.
It’s not all bad news, then. The Channel will be a lot wider which should reduce the flood of ‘informal’ immigration.
It’s going down at Anchorage! Arrrgh!
Here’s my forecast: When the Loonie Left can’t sell their burning hell/drowning earth scenario, they will smoothly and seamlessly switch to another money-redistribution scam, wonder what it will be?
“When the Loonie Left can’t sell their burning hell/drowning earth scenario…”
We’ll know the BBC etc have rediscovered some sense of impartiality and education teaches science as a non emotional subject; ditching the absurd notions of racism, colonialism etc. But that day is a very long way off. For example, the Twitter Files.
“A political party using a Big Tech platform as its personal censor? A potentially consequential piece of journalism suppressed during an election? What happened to the Hunter Biden laptop story should take its place among the great free-speech and journalistic scandals of the 21st century.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/12/05/the-twitter-files-and-the-silence-of-the-hacks/
The MSM is blanking that.
“The MSM is blanking that.”
That’s their job.
The NEW UK Prime minister is already going to take all our money in tax, that may be the new scam.
And so the fight against physics [logic and common sense] goes on.
Neil Oliver – ‘…the Great Reset power grab…’ – YouTube
Now, no claim is too ludicrous for them
*** Prof Ole Humlum lecture tonight ***
A gentle reminder about our next lecture on Wednesday December 7th at 7pm Dublin time (which is 19.00 GMT/UTC and 8pm CET) which will be given by Prof Ole Humlum .
The title of his lecture will be “The State of the Climate – Based on Real Observations”.
The Zoom link will be: https://ucd-ie.zoom.us/j/66125360783?pwd=eEtkRlZFZVdKUno0UG1oTjZramRYUT09
Meeting ID: 661 2536 0783, Passcode: 960979.
We look forward to your participation in this highly relevant virtual event.
Best wishes, Jim O’Brien, Chair ICSF, http://www.ICSF.ie.
This is your personal Invitation from
The Irish Climate Science Forum (ICSF) & Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL)
I wish for a law that demands the MSM only publish things that can be shown to be true, but then no one would buy them! Obviously written for money not to inform the Public.
They should stop calling it “the news” and instead say “the noise”
“The Noise” is now spending a great amount of effort trying to deny that Twitter Gate is a “bomb shell”.
“as the area becomes totally flooded, with a large portion of the Midlands submerged as well”.
I live in “a large portion of the midlands” and I can assure the Mirror we are not getting flooded any time soon in the next few million years.
There used to a common joke about the “Lighthouse of Northampton” which is 70 miles from the sea, about as far as you can get in the UK.
Furthest point from the sea? You need to include the mean-high-water point, clearly marked on the Ordnance Survey maps, of the rivers Thames, Severn, Dee and Trent in your calculations.
Roger,
High Cross is where the Romans marked the centre of Britannia.
Not much has changed in the last 2,000 years.
So, I guess I should stop holding my breath waiting to reclaim my ancestral property in Doggerland!? Family legends claim that the Storegga Slide was an early Viking war op!
Sounds like a case for reparations.
The British Isles is still recovering from the retreat of the ice sheets of the last ice age whereby it is tilting on an axis somewhere in the Midlands. Scotland is rising and the south is sinking. The same thing is happening elsewhere such that Finland is rising causing the Baltic Sea to retreat at its northern extremity.
The more their projections fail the more they double down.
Things really aren’t looking good for the alarmists claims these days.
SMB of the Greenland ice sheet increasing.
Hurricane ACE below average and global ACE only 74% of the 30 year mean.
Tornado incidence in the US around the 20th percentile of average.
Australia experiencing it’s coldest spring in some time after having a cold and snowy winter. And the great barrier reef has been found to be healthy.
NH snow extent above the long term average.
Polar air poised to push deep down into the temperate zone in multiple places.
None of their disastrous projections for catastrophic SLR have occurred and there are not indications they are about to occur according to observations. Every single one of the1,000 plus islands of the Maldives is still above water.
The evidence continues to grow that Polar bears are doing just fine.
Satellite Altimetry can’t measure anything. NASA says the error of a Jason-3 satellite is 3.3 cm for 1000 pings, but the actual error of a single ping is 1.2 meters. The instrumental error cannot be reduced through multiple measurements, only random error can be reduced in this way!
It’s close enough for government work.
Have they tried to calibrate the satellites with the tide guages? I would really like to see their explanation for why their sea level rise is so much higher than what the tide guages and historical records clearly and unequivocally show.
how much glacial / ice cap melt would have to happen for this scenario to be plausible?
If the Climate Alarmists are so concerned about sea level rise of a few inches/century risking flooding vast tracts of the UK and Europe. Maybe they should consider an alternative strategy, to just banning fossil fuel to ease their sea level concerns.
Have they considered back filling the Caspian sea for example? There is a body of water greater than the area of Japan and it is 90 ft or 27 meters below sea level. Just pumping into the Caspian would solve the Alarmists anxiety for a few hundred years. When that period of pointless activity has elapsed, if they still feel the need to control sea level and are anxious to save Gloucester Cathedral of the Fens in Norfolk, they could start pumping into the Dead Sea and low depressions in North Africa.
These Climate Alarmists are just plain dumb. Maybe we should beat them at their own silly dumb games. They like doing pointless things, I am sure we could come up with plenty of ideas they could adopt to keep them pointlessly busy. 🙂
Get them to do the Dead Sea and north Africa depressions first since they are easier (siphon from the ocean to depths below sea level) and more beneficial (would replenish the Dead Sea and actually make it LESS salty) (filling in the Qattara Depression would bring much needed moisture to the area and the water rushing in could be used for hydro power though it would require a long transmission line to reach Cairo or Alexandria, say. A huge lake and mangrove plantation would change the climate of the area.)
The Mirror is on an intellectual par with the Dandy or Beano – they don’t do science, like most disreputable MSM, there’s no money or fear, hence sales, in it – it is a place, where the truth goes to die
USGS says that sea level would rise 70 meters if all ice on Earth melted. Since that hasn’t happened in 45 million years and glaciation started when atmospheric CO2 was 760 ppm, it’s safe to assume that it will not happen anytime soon. The next glacial cycle is far more likely than complete thawing.
Half of the Netherlands under water by 2100??
Since most of it is and has been under water for quite a long time. I guess that means they’re expecting sea level to decline…
So what else is new? As far back as the late 1960s, didn’t Paul Ehrlich claim that the oncoming climate crisis would cause such widespread famine tha Britain, among others, would cease to exist? So where have all these 67 million Brits come from over the last half-century? These doomsday predictions have to be taken with not merely a grain of salt but with a heaping tablespoon.
Ah 8.5 rears its ugly head again……..
When are “journalists” ever going to question someone who uses “could” in a sentence about the impacts of changing any variable.
It could be -10 degrees tomorrow in Sydney. It also could be 50 degrees tomorrow in Sydney.
All indications are that it’s a ridiculous, fearmongering prediction, but at least it is a quantifiable, falsifiable prediction. The failure rate on these has gotten so high that it seems most alarmists won’t provide numbers at all.
The source of this should be pressed for when and how this will unfold. Obviously things will not continue as they are now until someday in 2100 when there’s a 4-8 meter step change in sea level. When will sea level rise become 30x today’s observation? When will the first coastal towns be abandoned? Even refusal to answer questions like this is informative.