By P Gosselin
Charts produced by Kirye
This October, according to the (untampered) data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the mean temperature in Tokyo came in at 17.2°C, making it it one of the coolest over the past decades:
Data source: JMA.
More significant, however, is the trend over the past 33 years – it’s been downward. As we reported last month, the Tokyo mean temperature trend situation for September is similar – no warming.
Hachijojima island
Tokyo’s rural island of Hachijojima is located some 287 km out in the Pacific, thus making it rather free of massive urban heat island effects. The island saw an October, 2022, mean temperature of 20.9°C:
Data source: JMA.
Going back to 1987, the October mean temperature trend has been slightly downward as well. No sign of warming.
NASA “adjustments”
Yet, when you compare Hachijojima JMA annual temperature data to that from NASA unadjusted and then its homogenized data going all the way back to 1950, readers can get a good idea where all the “warming” is really coming from:
There was no warming, until that is NASA tampered with the data to produce a “warming” trend. NASA’s trend starts to look like forgery and fakery.
The decent into outright fraud was with accepting Michael Mann’s hockey stick. There were indications earlier with altering the conclusions of the IPCC report to find human influences that the evidence did not support, but Mann was blatant.
Does NASA publish the methodology for their corrections?
If not, then they are not engaged in science.
How about some House hearings to produce their methodology and some testimony under oath to justify the obviously bogus methods.
They can then be fired for cause if the methods are provably producing spurious warming.
Forgery and fakery. Is that like safe and effective?
The Climate Apocalypse has ALWAYS been a fraud pushed by those that hate the freedom and prosperity produced by the West. That is why their solutions are ALWAYS to destroy the very systems that have freed so much of humanity from poverty and virtual or actual slavery!
I highly recommend Neil Oliver’s rant from yesterday on GBN about the “Green” agenda.
Tokyo must also have a growing urban heat island effect actually pushing its temperatures up, so its cooling even more strongly
The Dreaded Pause since the 1998 el Niño is obvious too. These will be excellent data points when the time comes to recover the egregiously jiggered data.
What about other temp staions in Japan? I would be interested in a temp record on Pitcairn Island…people have been there for over 2 centuries….too bad they did not maintain a temp record.
I borrowed the third chart from NTZ for my climate science and energy blog. It makes an important point about adjustments. The first two charts are not that useful. Theye are not global average temperatures, of Japan average temperatures or Tokyo average temperatures..
THEY ARE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN ONE MONTH (October) in two locations.
As a result, they are not very useful except for people who ive in those areas, and even then, only for the month of October. HW IMPORTANT IS THAT FOR EVERYONE ELSE?
Most rising temperatures seem to be actually measuring urbanisation and the introduction of heating/cooling equipment which generates excess waste heat.
Tokyo has a sophisticated modern city for many years. So when temperature studies started it was already using all sorts of modern equipment, giving it a higher than natural temperature.
I suspect that Toyko has been at the forefront of installing modern equipment, that such equipment is typically more efficient and less wasteful of excess heat, and that in Toyko we are simply measuring the cooing effect of introducing modern equipment…
balancing out all the places on the planet which are warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet . earth is like the children of lake woebegone – warming everywhere is above average
The UHI effect is not new. The UK’s temperate climate effected family summer holidays for those who chose rural settings with a reminder to pack a jumper or cardigan for the temperature drop as the Sun set something that happens in urban places too but much later in the evening or night in summer. Do meteoroligists mention UHI when declaring their record decimal point high temperature readings? No, they do not, and that is why the despicable Mann started a decline in scientists taking care not to mislead, most of all to misleading themselves about their importance and reputations.
Sadly too many people are making too much money out of this contnued deception but a day will come …
Meanwhile the monthly temperature in Tokyo for March, May, June, July, and August has been warming over the same period, and the annual trend over this period has also been warming:
Picture a major tax preparation software program that always and only rounded all values to the benefit of their end users. Rounding up or down would not be based on whether the change portion of a line item was more or less than fifty cents. Instead every instance of rounding would be to the advantage of the end user.
How long before the maker of that program was hauled into court? Fined? Banned from the marketplace?
It seems like virtually all temp adjustments favor the Warmunists. A reckoning is way overdue, starting with valid audits. That seems like a job for a Republican congress, starting in early 2023.
The Autumn season across the NH seems to be showing little or no warming over recent years unlike the Spring.
lts the Autumn season that’s been having the largest growth in snow extent over the last 50 years. Here in the UK the Autumn season has shown no warming since around 2005. While my first snow data recorded here in N Linc’s,England has shown no warming trend since it started in 1977.
Due to thermal lag, the September solar EMR at 36N will be the main natural driver of land surface temperature in Tokyo. It has been declining at 0.5W/m^2 per century for millennia now. This is the last three hundred years and next 100 year:
-0.300 395.520299
-0.200 395.062350
-0.100 394.604834
0.000 394.148071
0.100 393.690790
There should be a long term downward trend in October temperature as result.
The other interesting aspect of Tokyo is that it has been a modern, energy intensive city for decades now and is making efforts to green the city. The UHI will not be changing as much in Tokyo as other developing Asian cities.
The only useful data is raw data, any data that has been adjusted in any way for any reason is just that adjusted data. The only thing I care about is what my thermometer says in my backyard. Yes I am saying I have more faith in my crappy hardware store thermometer than all the adjusted data in the world.
AlanJ Reply to Pillage Idiot November 7, 2022 10:26 am
AlanJ shows a graph of global temperature estimates with a blue line labelled “Global Raw”.
That blue line includes data supplied by numerous countries, including my Australia.
Colleague Tome berger and I have examined the Australian “Raw” data and reported our findings here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/14/uncertainty-of-measurement-of-routine-temperatures-part-iii/
AlanJ, you should not claim data as “Raw” data unless you have established that it is.
In the Australian case, we show evidence that some “Raw” data has already been “Adjusted”.
So, AlanJ, will you produce some evidence from other countries that you assume to be providing “Raw” data are actually doing so?
If you cannot show that “Raw” is raw, then you have no argument.
Geoff S
Bingo!