HT/Mumbles M
August 4, 2022
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”
NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.
“Communities and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to be an active hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Ensure that you are ready to take action if a hurricane threatens your area by developing an evacuation plan and gathering hurricane supplies now, before a storm is bearing down on your community.”
Learn about NOAA’s hurricane science and forecasting expertise by viewing our Hurricane Season Media Resource Guide and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season—the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait. That’s why everyone should take proactive steps to get ready by downloading the FEMA app and visiting Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips. And most importantly, make sure you understand your local risk and follow directions from your state and local officials.”
So obvious question is what has been their batting average over the years?
That’s easy
They bat 1000
Because they assign weighting to above, below and average, no matter what the prediction they are always right.
That’s how Scientology works, a beautiful thing.
Same way AWG co2 theory states any area can be hotter or cooler, wetter or dryer due to co2, no matter the result it was predicted.
Vegas casinos have nothing on these creatures.
That’s dumb. You’re equating NOAA storms specialists with warmunist ideologues. They’re not.
what are you selling?
You can compare past seasonal forecasts from NOAA, CSU, and TSR here:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
So NOAA has over guessed on named storms 6 out of the 21 guesses from 2000 to 2021. Yep, they are true scientists, running at about 30%
AND many times really over guessing. Apparently even though wrong time and again, they have not corrected their models.
No science there.
“…still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions,”
There is a ‘tell’ here. Their forecast clearly relied too heavily on la Niña conditions (unusual ones at that) which they list first and blab about most. Number one consideration is sea surface temperatures. I was in Dom Republic in June and the temperatures were a degree or two cooler than normal (like they have been Eastern Ontario). Their updated forecast should have had the benefit of seeing if Accumulated Cyclone Energy had increased significantly or not (graph links on WUWT are broken using my cell phone).
Atlantic Year 2022 Hurricane Data from Colorado State University through August 5, 2022 shows that Accumulated Cyclone Energy for year 2022 is now only 25% of the average Accumulated Cyclone Energy for this seasons time period relative to average for the period 1991 to 2020 as well as having only 3.25 days of actual storm activity compared to about 10 days for the average over this 1991 to 2020 period.
Clearly a very slow start regardless of how NOAA is trying to spin this outcome.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
Why no Q U X Y Z names?
Well they managed to get in a Shary? So they are clearly aware there are storms out their beyond Anglo Saxon origination….
Oh, and Gaston is getting a bit risky too.
My question, too.
Names starting with those letters are rare, so they’ve been excluded since name lists were inaugurated in the Atlantic in 1953. In 1979, they switched to using men’s and women’s name alternately. More recently, they included French and Spanish names since those are predominate languages along with English in the areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes.
Shouldn’t they use African names since so many of the storms form off the African coast?
I can guarantee you that there will not be a storm or hurricane named Brandon within the next 2-1/2 years.
Joe Bastardi and the Weatherbell team are still projecting an above average Atlantic hurricane season. In his last Saturday Summary Joe said the switch should be turned on about the middle of this month, which is when the MJO is forecast by some to enter phase 2.
But as far as global ACE goes, and climate change is supposed to be global you know, the gorilla in the room is the Western Pacific and it is still projected to have activity far below normal.
Last I looked every basin except the East Pacific was showing below normal activity.
Above average is climate change
Below average is just weather
Get it right. Richard:
Above average is climate EXTREME!!!!
Below average is just weather EXTREME!!!!
You are both wrong. “Average” is a word that doesn’t convey any urgency. We have to replace it with “normal” now to get it across that something untoward is happening. Watch any Met office broadcast for confirmation.
For anyone like me who can’t remember all TLAs (Three Letter Abbreviations) Google gives this:
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere.
The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is a measure of total wind energy for basin and landfalling tropical cyclone activity
Those two are pretty important ones to remember and try to understand.
Hmm. Perhaps it would be a good idea for WUWT to have an index tab just for such abbreviations.
One one hand, the pros, and we that have been paying attention to the weather and climate arguments for years know this kind of stuff but those that have not and are just becoming interested may not. But on the other hand one could argue that anyone that is really interested would look them up on their own as apparently you just did.
Oh My! Weather has become sentient!
Never mind that Sandy was not a Hurricane or even a Tropical storm when it hit NJ.
Actually, it was classified as an extra-tropical storm at landfall. But that was because it had been forecast 48 hours before landfall to be cold core upon landfall, so TPC couldn’t change horses in midstream, as that would have “confused people.” The reality is that it was still warm core when the eye came onshore, as at least one surface observation site showed an increase in temperature, so it should have been classified as tropical.
So the extra-tropical storm designation was wrong but they have not corrected it! Why not? Seems that should be done for the sake of correcting the record for future reference.
I’m sure the weather map will show what you say is correct, but still they should make the record correspond to what the map/data showed.
The records have been changed enough.
Though I certainly agree their tampering with the temperature record is revisionist BS. I don’t think there should be a problem when in review it has been found there was a mistake made based on unequivocal data.
I seem to remember classifying it tropical or not had a lot to do with insurance claims. A lot of policies have a clause raising the deductible on damage from “tropical” storms. My boat policies do.
“Sandy” was actually a combination of Sandy and a Nor’easter that came together right over New York. So Sandy at New York was actually two very strong storms in combination. That’ll do some damage. Yes, it will. And it has nothing to do with CO2.
Atlantic Intelligence.
Yes, they imply Sandy was intentionally lying in wait for humanity.
Some people just have to attribute human traits to Mother Nature.
The science of astronomy is real bad about this. It’s irritating as hell to me.
AWG, I’m sorry, but it’s actually your CLIMATE has become sentient. All tropical storms are EXTREME manifestations of Climate Change.
And I mean “tropical storms to include hurricanes and typhoons.
I remember a sci-fi short story I read years ago that had a weather theme. I don’t remember many of the details, but I think a probe returned to Earth from another planet with rock and atmospheric samples. Somehow the atmospheric sample was released into Earth’s air, and long story short, Earth’s atmosphere hunted it down and “killed” it by bringing in all kinds of weather fronts to squash it like a bug.
The protagonist, a meteorologist I think, witnessed the end and described it as storm fronts screaming in from all directions, in violation of all normal atmospheric flow, and when they had the “alien” surrounded he could see it like a bubble of clear air surrounded on all sides by the most violent thunder and rain he’d ever seen.
Finally the “bubble” popped and vanished, and the storms dissipated almost instantly and the atmosphere cleared and returned to its normal behavior.
Pretty imaginative. Wish I could remember the title or author, I’d love to revisit it.
Tony points out that by this date in 1886 the US had been hit by 4 Hurricanes and before the season was done took a total of 7 hits with the first hitting June 13th and the last October 8th.
And then there is that 12-year hiatus after Hurricane Katrina, where no major hurricanes hit the U.S.
Did NOAA predict that? My bet is every year of that 12-year period was predicted by NOAA to be above average in hurricanes.
Yes Ma’am , thank you for the advice. However, I live on the West Coast and in my entire lifetime, which is longer than yours, I have never needed to remain vigilant about hurricanes one time.
What? You weren’t around in the 1930’s when the 1 hurricane hit Los Angeles?
Baseball hitting and Meteorology – the only professions where being succesful 30% of the time will result in a new contract. And 4-6 months year weather forecasting is a lot easier than hitting professional pitching.
You left out Global Doom forecasting.
In that field, you can be accurate 0% of the time and still get your
contractgrant renewed!….”we anticipate that more storms are on the way” That is not correct English…there are zero storms on the way at this time…..a person can anticipate almost anything….can hope for it even…..but that does not mean anything is on the way.
“We anticipate that the oceans will become more acidic.”
They need to update their script.
We anticipate that the sun will come up, but we’re unsure it will set.
We anticipate Griff/Loydo will get it all wrong, again
Special skills indeed
“The
expertsapparatchiks at NOAA will continue to provide thesciencesuperstition, falsified data, andservicesself-serving…”There, fixed it.
Mmm, and that conspiratorial coven over at WeatherBell – who happen to drink from the same false data chalice and model spigot? Joe the superstitious, self-serving appartchik?
I’ve seen Bastardi contradict NOAA many times and be vindicated by events. You seem like a government employee.
He must be using one of those “good” models.
Joe Bastardi relies a lot on the history of weather and how that affects hurricane season.
Anyone paying attention knows Joe Bastardi is a hurricane forecaster extraordinaire. And that Joe has been at odds with NOAA forecasts many times in the past.
Further, Weatherbell makes its money in the commercial market where performance determines if the company survives and prospers and not in government where toting the party line is rewarded. If NOAA was as good at their jobs as they should be, then companies like Weatherbell would not exist!
That is not to say there aren’t many dedicated and very competent people at NOAA. It’s their political bosses that drive that train though.
Quite possibly, but personal bias is no substitute for evidence. Joe may well be a better hurricane forecaster, but if he is, that would just mean he has a superior model, because afterall, he is relying on the same observations. But is he? Is there any evidence?
He would probably claim to be more accurate, but then he would, he has a commercial interest in that being the case. Some would argue commercial interests are even more insidious. Best to be sleptical of both.
Like I said “Anyone paying attention”.
Joe looks at various models and being in the business for a long time also has a fantastic store of empirical knowledge so he knows what years weather patterns in the past are similar to the current ones. So knowing what occurred due to certain weather patterns in the past he can develop a forecast that is often superior to what the weather agencies of any government puts out.
For example a couple years ago he forecasted the arctic blast that hit Texas a full 10 days before it happened. I watched and NOAA didn’t catch on until it was 3 days out.
No forecaster ever gets it right all the time. But if I had to bet my life on a forecast, it would be Joes. And a lot of industries, and agricultural concerns and various municipalities apparently value Weatherbells forecasts enough to pay for the service.
Now, if your very life depended on the weather forecast who would you put your trust in?
I’m not disagreeing with any of this I’m just saying in the absence of credible evidence it’s wise to be sleptical.
“in the absence of credible evidence, it’s wise to be skeptical.”
That’s a great motto! I wish climate skeptics had thought of that. /sarc
You should practice what you preach
Climate models are not “credible evidence”
FINALLY something you write that I can 100% agree with! Loydo becomes a skeptic…
Oh, the irony!!
Very little of what appears on this website has even a skerrick of credibility, so not ironic as much as ridiculous. The so-called skeptics here seem to credulously lap up, with out question anything that is posted.
If I suggested CO2 levels were only increasing because of ocean out-gassing, why most would just sagely nod their approval.
Well, the recent Kousoyiannis paper hints at something just like that 🙂 –
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360839267_Revisiting_causality_using_stochastics_2_Applications
Loydo,
But you have never shown where I as a frequent blogger here since the start has been wrong. So why do you persist in writing inaccurately like you just did.
Further, to pick up on your example of warming and CO2 in the air, I would not “take sides”. I would refer you to a recent pair of detailed, careful papers by respected hydrologist and mathematician Demetris KOUTSOYIANNIS of Nile River flow fame. Published May 2022 IIRC, they deal with causality and one concludes with confidence that in the sequence of time, temperature change leads CO2 change in the air and little room is left for speculation that CO2 is a T control knob.
These are important papers, but the math will be beyond most young readers with poor math education. Geoff S
“If I suggested CO2 levels were only increasing because of ocean out-gassing, why most would just sagely nod their approval.”
There’s no evidence for “most” nodding their approval. That’s your opinion. That’s the problem with a lot of alarmists: They present their opinions as facts.
What’s ridiculous is pretending that mainstream climate “science” has even a shred of credibility. It’s dominated by politics and religion. Any science is an afterthought or coincidence.
That could apply to your CAGW beliefs.
The same applies to the theory of mannmade climate change.
One other point. Weatherbell comes out with its initial hurricane season projection weeks before NOAA and as far as I have seen, anyone else does.
“Quite possibly, but personal bias is no substitute for evidence.”
Loydo was that irony?
“Quite possibly, but personal bias is no substitute for evidence. Joe may well be a better hurricane forecaster, but if he is, that would just mean he has a superior model, because afterall, he is relying on the same observations. But is he? Is there any evidence?”
What Joe Bastardi does is study the weather patterns of the past and he looks at how hurricanes behaved during those times and then he looks at the present and sees a similar weather pattern as in the past and he predicts how the hurricane season will unfold based on past evidence and observations of how hurricanes behave in that particular situation in the past.
Joe’s methods seem to work very well. I don’t think he needs a computer model.
This reminds me of the scene in “Twister” where Bill Paxton sneers at rival stormchaser/meteorologist Carey Elwes for “going corporate.”
Good movie.
NOAA hurricane data shows that by this point in August an average season would have about 10 days of tropical storm activity duration versus only about 3.5 days of tropical storm duration actual activity to date. Additionally accumulated tropical storm energy to date is only about 30 percent of an average season. This clearly a very slow start for tropical storms in the 2022 season.
Global ACE is at 80% according to Dr. Maue’s ACE index. Suggest you might save this link.
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue (climatlas.com)
re: “NOAA hurricane data shows that by this point in August an average season would have about 10 days of tropical storm activity duration versus only about 3.5 days of tropical storm duration actual activity to date.”
Thank you. I was about to ask if the Atlantic was under-performing vis-a-vis ‘hurricane production’/tropical activity this year given this (OP’s) post’s title, and it appears so …
Also you can compare current TC activity versus historic at this site:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
Here’s the current chart 2022 is behind the curve but it’s still very early in the season.
What passes for science at NOAA is criminal.
I just read a NOAA article on Colorado precipitation which stated that the Cameron Peak Fire, the East Troublesome Fire, and the Pine Gulch Fire in 2020 verified that the climate is warming.Cameron Peak and East Troublesome we’re human-caused (lit) fires.
Well, they are 50% right, human caused.
That’s pretty good for the Scientologists.
As per my question to Cliff Mass on the other string, La Niña suggests strong hurricane season but also drought in USA west.
This will be 3rd year of La Niña and so far it’s a weak hurricane season and as I noted it seems to be raining continuous all across the west lately.
Something else going on?
It has been an excellent monsoon season into Arizona and New Mexico this year.
I thought that was NOT supposed to be the case in La Nina conditions, but there is clearly lots of variability in the seasonal weather even if our “rules of thumb” level of predictions are generally statistically accurate.
Yea, and the liars that were declaring a mega draught for the area are now painting the monsoon as some kind of abnormal disaster due to the flooding.
It isn’t raining in Southern California.
It never rains in California
But girl, don’t they warn ya?
I generally ignore forecasts and predictions, but those for the next month or two could be accurate. Before trusting such a forecast, I want details on the accuracy of prior forecasts. I didn’t see them in this article, so it is worthless to me. My own prediction is better: 2022 will be an above Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, unless it is a below average hurricane season.
There’s a lot of Sahara heat travelling North for its holidays this year – high temperatures and drought in Europe. So it’s not travelling West to make hurricanes.
Now that is an interesting observation.
Maybe the control knob of hurricanes is the loopiness (is that a word) of the Jet stream?
Another perfect summer day here in central UK. Blue skies and sunshine and a high of 22 deg. C expected. It could even go up to 24 deg. C in UHI affected places.
Perfect.
There is enough travelling west it is carrying Sahara dust with it right now. Plus the SSTs along the MDR have been relatively cool. So it may be awhile yet before we see significant development from the MDR. But the Gulf, Caribbean, and close into the US east coast are another matter.
Watch out for Hurrican Xi.
Oh, Pooh!
I hear that will get one thrown in jail in China. It seems Xi is a little sensitive.
I predict a major storm outbreak in the western Pacific. Call it superstorm Nancy P.
The Chicoms are going to kill a lot of fish, and scare the hell out of a lot of cowardly leftists like Joe Biden. That’s the point of the Chicom exercise.
“The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
How, exactly, does one become “climate-ready”??? Is there some kind of checklist, or special suit people are supposed to wear???
Very, very slowly.
A politician’s statement versus a NOAA Administrator’s statement.
Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
“NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”
Do politicians get paid by the word?
The “read between the lines” issue here is that, if this is an official communication from NOAA, which I understand it is by having the own director speaking, this doesn’t support the still false positive call that “CO2 is driving climate to catastrophes, destruction and extinction” when the season of apparently “more frequent and extreme storms” are in the “predictions”. It says here that the delayed observation of hurricanes is normal, that the probability of being above normal is being lowered, and that the major contributors to hurricane behavior such as La Niña and winds are still the ruling issue, not a “human-made climate change. I have references of years ago of NOAA versus NOAA on the superficial pseudoscience of the “climate change by CO2”. If you want to see them, send email and I’ll share what I have found in the literature. JBVigo, PhD
Sorry I’m making that comment clearer:
The “read between the lines” issue here is that, if this is an official communication from NOAA, which I understand it is by having the own director speaking, this doesn’t support the still false positive call that “CO2 is driving climate to extreme storms, more frequent, catastrophes, destruction and extinction”. This explains that the apparently “more frequent and extreme storms” is not in the “predictions”. It says here that the delayed observation of hurricanes is normal, that the probability of being above normal is being lowered, and that the major contributors to hurricane behavior such as La Niña and winds are still the ruling issue, not a “human-made climate change. I have references of years ago of NOAA versus NOAA on the superficial pseudoscience of the “climate change by CO2”. If you want to see them, send email and I’ll share what I have found in the literature.
JBVigo, PhD