Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Sees No Extreme Situation with Arctic Sea Ice

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

The Alfred Wegner Institute does not see an extreme situation with sea ice in the Arctic (June 2022). The institute’s page states:

The Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) is participating again this year with the AWI Consortium Model, a dynamic coupled sea ice ocean model, and calculated a September sea ice extent of 4.75 million square kilometers in its June forecast. This value is about 4% above the median value of all submitted models but in the middle of the predictions given for dynamic models.

Dr. Frank Kauker, a physicist in the Sea Ice Physics Section at AWI, assesses the first prediction as follows: “The first forecast of a year from the beginning of June is usually still characterized by a rather large uncertainty (this year 0.43 million square kilometers). Nevertheless, at the moment there is nothing to indicate an extreme situation in September.

The ice cover in September will be with a great probability in the range of the last years, i.e. between 4 and 5 million square kilometers. The next forecast in early July will reduce the uncertainty somewhat, as it will become clear in June how many melt ponds will have formed, which will then decisively determine the melt rates of the ice during the rest of the year due to their lower solar irradiance return.”


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Gordon A. Dressler
July 31, 2022 6:19 am

This is good. All you AGW/CAGW alarmists out there, listen up!

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
July 31, 2022 6:29 am

And , look at DMI …

Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
July 31, 2022 8:00 am

Nick stokes is too busy shivering under his blanket to hear 😉

Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
August 1, 2022 6:41 am

I don’t know about “good”…
I’d prefer a little less ice and warmer temperatures. I was hoping to raise Mediterranean figs, orange and lemon trees and perhaps a papaya tree. Looks like we have to wait until the next interglacial.

Increasing Arctic ice means we are likely in for colder weather. Perhaps cold enough weather that the alarmists can no longer fraudulently adjust temperatures falsely aligning them with an alleged CO₂ increase.

Maybe the lunatic politicians will be shrewd enough to claim climate success and return to using fossil fuels to during cold weather. Such success is still a false presumption, but at least people will be warm in winter and able to travel easily.

July 31, 2022 6:44 am

Still a bit nippy eh? Don’t forget to buzz me when it’s swimming togs and towel time then.

July 31, 2022 7:19 am

There is more Arctic Ice now than the average of the last 15 years, maybe 20…
click the coloured buttons back to about 2005 here:

Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 8:00 am

Alarmists looking for scary ice loss news in the Arctic is very like citizens of the new Na3i axis (USA-U.K.-Ukraine) looking for news of a Ukraine victory in the proxy war. Wishful thinking at best.

New breakthrough at Kherson? New record September Arctic minimum? Well there’s always next year.

Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 8:15 am

Just like Arctic ice was supposed to be gone years ago, wasn’t Putin supposed to win this thing in just a couple of weeks?

Matt Kiro
Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2022 8:43 am

He would have if Europe and the US werent pumping billions of dollars of military equipment and money into Ukraine. Unlike the billions of tons of CO2 which hasn’t seemed to affected the amount of ice in the artic

Reply to  Matt Kiro
July 31, 2022 10:08 am

How dare Europe and the US help an ally defend itself. Doesn’t everyone know that Putin is entitled to take anything he wants?
Besides which, if the war had been as short as Putin thought it would, there wouldn’t have been any time for Europe and the US to send anything.

Janice Moore
Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2022 12:57 pm

PLUS 1991!

(some pro-Russian invasion person negated my “plus 1,” so…).

Reply to  Janice Moore
July 31, 2022 1:16 pm

If Putin had spent more money training his troops and less on online trolls, perhaps his armies would have been as good as he thought they were.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  MarkW
August 1, 2022 8:57 am

He should have learned a lot about his equipment from Iraq. It didn’t fare too well against the west.

andy in epsom
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
August 2, 2022 10:36 am

I would love to know what war you are talking about. russia against Iraq? When?

Reply to  andy in epsom
August 2, 2022 5:18 pm

The Gulf Wars.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Matt Kiro
July 31, 2022 10:11 am

‘He would have if Europe and the US werent pumping billions of dollars of military equipment and money into Ukraine.’

Not to mention all the puff pieces in the likes of ‘Vogue’. Btw, I wonder how much of this summer’s ‘warming’ is attributable to the wiring of these billions to offshore accounts?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Matt Kiro
July 31, 2022 12:51 pm

Europe and the US [are] pumping billions of dollars of military equipment and money into Ukraine…

And may God bless them for it!


Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
July 31, 2022 12:52 pm

Ukraine’s glory hasn’t perished,
nor freedom, nor will.

And we too shall rule, [kindred],
in a free land of our own.
We’ll lay down our souls
and bodies to attain our freedom


Sounds familiar.

There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! Our chains are forged! Their clanking may be heard on the plains of Boston! The war is inevitable — and let it come! I repeat it, sir, let it come.

It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace — but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field!

Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!

Patrick Henry
March 23, 1775

Anyone who does not believe Ukraine’s fight is about LIBERTY and the right of “We the People” to exercise “inalienable rights,” has been fooled by Russian propaganda.

Phil Salmon
Reply to  Janice Moore
July 31, 2022 1:13 pm

It’s right to admire Ukraine’s courageous defence. But the more you look into it – and all that happened in Ukraine in the last few years was under a compliant media silence (H Biden’s laptop, etc.) the more it looks like the US and NATO really did deliberately provoke the war. We started a proxy war to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian. As someone who loves both Russia and Ukraine, this I find hard to accept.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 2:53 pm

No “provocation” justifies what Putin has done. The cause of the war in the Ukraine is: Putin.

andy in epsom
Reply to  Janice Moore
August 2, 2022 10:38 am

The cause of the response was the already 8 year war where Ukraine were commiting genocide.

Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 3:20 pm

Provocation? Are you really this desperate to excuse Putin’s attempts to take over his neighbors? Yes, just like Putin, you love the Ukraine so much you want it to be part of Russia.

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 5:38 pm

Putin invaded Crimea while Obama was president. Of course, he was working on getting the band back together for years before that but he especially needed the sea ports that had been lost when the USSR collapsed. You give too much credit to USA and NATO and not enough to Putin. It is becoming a proxy war, but one Biden is very reluctant to get involved in.

Reply to  Loren C. Wilson
August 1, 2022 6:51 am

And the crops that Ukraine grows in quantity.

Putin hates buying the crops at global market prices. He want to pay Central Committee pricing and then sell any excess at global market prices.

Sea ports and croplands and oppressed people to plant and harvest for him.

Reply to  Janice Moore
August 1, 2022 6:48 am

Anyone who does not believe Ukraine’s fight is about LIBERTY and the right of “We the People” to exercise “inalienable rights,”

If you are expecting Zelensky to support “inalienable rights”, it isn’t happening. His actions are near despotic.

andy in epsom
Reply to  Janice Moore
August 2, 2022 10:37 am

So you support the NAZI people?

Reply to  andy in epsom
August 2, 2022 5:19 pm

So you believe that all Ukranians are Nazi’s?
There are Nazi’s in the US, does this mean that Canada is obligated to invade the US in order to get rid of them?

Reply to  Matt Kiro
August 1, 2022 8:26 am

I’d like to thank Mark and Janice for their accurate and principled defence of Ukraine and of freedom, especially on behalf of my relative by marriage, in a top floor apartment in Kyiv, able to watch the Russian cruise missiles fly past her window.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2022 10:41 am

Basically the objective was to take Lugansk and Donetsk and and the Azov Sea area (nazzy stronghold) as a buffer against NATO and to free up the beleaguered Russian speaking Ukrainians who were marked for death by first, Poroshenko and then Zalensky (the area was shelled for 8yrs by US- backed governments installed after a US-backed coup d’etat).

This is why no effort was made to go right into Kiev to take over the gov, TV, etc. (you don’t need to be a military tactician to know this much).

Reply to  Gary Pearse
July 31, 2022 12:08 pm

There was no effort to go into Kiev? Is that what they are calling their failed attacks on Kiev now?
As to their desire to take parts of other countries in order to provide Liebenstraum, we’ve heard that claim before.
As to the prosecution of those Ukrainians who wanted split from Ukraine, look at what the US did to the south when it tried to split from the US.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2022 4:49 pm

This is no civil war. The US backed a coup in 2014 installing Poroshenko and ultimately Zelensky to harrass shell, and kill Ukrainians of Russian descent who were even born there. Even Kruschev was born there and had headed up Ukraine. BTW, he gave Crimea to the Ukrainians in 1957. It had belonged to Russia since Katherine the Great who took it from the Turks.

Re the invasion, how about this. Suppose Russia were to go to Cuba and pack the place with missiles and 100B worth of ammo and other offensive weapons. What do you think the US would do? Kennedy knew what to do! Ukraine is an area of interest!!!

Reply to  Gary Pearse
July 31, 2022 5:47 pm

Man, you will believe whatever Putin tells you to believe.
US led a coup? And you believe that????

Ah yes, anything that was ever controlled by Russia must always belong to Russia, regardless of what the people there want.
And anyone who disagrees is just provoking pure Putin.

As far as nuclear missiles go, the Ukraine had those and surrendered them to Russia in exchange for Russian guarantees of non-aggression. Guarantees which Putin ab abandoned as soon as he had the military means to do so.

andy in epsom
Reply to  MarkW
August 2, 2022 10:41 am

So you ignored John Bolton admittig on live television that the US has arranged coups all around the world and the take a lot of planning. Everyone outside the US know it was a coup just like Pakistan last year and the attempted coup in Belarus two years ago. THe USA are the biggest murderers on the planet.

Reply to  andy in epsom
August 2, 2022 5:20 pm

Everybody knows. That’s the standard response of someone who knows he can’t support his claims.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Gary Pearse
July 31, 2022 6:39 pm

Mark, you are a smart guy and I always enjoy your cogent comments. I would only ask that you be sceptical of the media if it is lying to you about climate or the war or everything else. There is info out there that you can find, perhaps not easily because as you know the first casualty is the truth in war. There is a lot of history stuff that predates the conflict and stretches back to WW2 and before.

Few people know for example, that (scroll down to Part)

“One of the most notable features of the Ukraine is a distinction between the East and the West. The Eastern portion, has been under Russian and/or Soviet rule since the 1600’s, while the Western portion was under the control of Poland-Lithuania, Austria, and later under Poland, and Romania until its integration into the Soviet Union in 1944.[ii]”

How’s that for area of influence? In an other reference, the region around Kiev was known as Kievan-Rus as early as early AD862!

Kiev was also the capital of the Russian Empire in the 1600s.

I worked on a project for a German investor 20yrs ago in Ukraine looking at potential mineral deposits from near the Hungarian border to the Russian border and north to south. Hence my interest and hopefully better than average knowledge of the country, politics etc. I liked the people wherever I went but I flagged the corruption that might make for risky investment as bad as any I’ve seen in Africa where I have worked in several countries over many years.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 2, 2022 5:22 pm

So if something once belonged to Russia, it must always belong to Russia?
I guess Mexico would be justified in invading the US to take back everything it once controlled. Of course Britain would be justified in invading the US to take back it’s colonies.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  MarkW
August 4, 2022 8:42 am

Since it was the Soviets that put the whole country together for the first time in 1922 and the former Russia had named it, making it ‘Ukraine’ and they already possessed the eastern part, (ending Polish and Baltic states adventures to the west), my only point is that it is in their sphere of interest when foreign countries with unfriendly designs move in. BTW, ‘Украине’ (У Краине) in Russian means ‘the edge’ or ‘ the fringe’ (of the empire). This is why it is known as ‘The Ukraine’ in English. ‘Just sayin’.

Emily Daniels
Reply to  MarkW
August 1, 2022 4:44 am

Er, the term is Lebensraum. Liebenstraum would be a “dream of love”.

Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2022 12:08 pm

No idea, but US media told us Putin’s price hikes. Propaganda is a bitch that way.

Johne Morton
Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 9:33 am

Who knows what to think anymore…At the outset of this war, it was thought that Kiev would fall in 72 hours. On the other end of the spectrum, British Intel has been saying that the Russians would become exhausted by May, June, July, and I believe that now it’s been pushed to October.

As for sea ice, I’ve never felt that it was such a big deal one way or another. Mult-year pack ice eventually gets dirty and will eventually become too dark and melt. The Arctic has always had polynias and has been at the whim of wind patterns and ocean currents.

Phil Salmon
Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 1:22 pm

It’s natural to assume that Russia calling Ukraine “Na3is” is just a rhetorical device. Can’t be true surely? Zhelensky’s grandfather etc? The crazy thing is, as the world are all now discovering, Ukraine is full of the real thing

Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 1:32 pm

Ukraine is one of the most corrupt nations on Earth. What was Obama doing there 🤔

Reply to  Derg
July 31, 2022 1:51 pm

Removing some of the corruption. i,e Victor Shokin. Actually he asked Biden to do it, but same thing.

Reply to  Simon
July 31, 2022 5:38 pm

Hahahaaha. The colluuuusion clown has arrived. Are you using Griffs brain today?

Reply to  Derg
July 31, 2022 8:06 pm

Ah look it is Derg the man who never deals with an issue. Just humiliates himself by using childish putdowns.

Reply to  Simon
August 1, 2022 12:31 am

How’s your pal Hunter and his dad?

Reply to  Graemethecat
August 1, 2022 8:18 am

Let me know when they find anything illegal. Want to make nepotism by government officials illegal? Line forms behind me.

But to answer your ?, not nearly as well off as the Orange SIL. $2B loaned by Ginzu Steak Knife MbS, over the objections of the Saudi money managers. Bu bye to those $…

Reply to  bigoilbob
August 1, 2022 10:19 am

Nepotism is illegal, and has been for several generations.

Reply to  Simon
August 1, 2022 4:00 am

Lol…my job on this site is to help new readers know the idiots before they read too many posts.

Since you still think there was Russia colluuuusion…you become the dumbest in the room….Griff is in that room too.

Reply to  Derg
August 1, 2022 10:20 am

It is second only to Russia under Putin.

Reply to  Phil Salmon
July 31, 2022 3:21 pm

Pure propaganda.

July 31, 2022 8:27 am

Minimum value has been fairly constant over the last decade after a significant decline.

Citizen Smith
July 31, 2022 8:30 am

There should be an honorary Algore bar showing 0 just above the University of Washington’s worst guess. FTFH

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Citizen Smith
July 31, 2022 10:56 am

Richard Page
Reply to  Citizen Smith
August 1, 2022 8:04 am

If there was an Algore bar, I wouldn’t want to drink there.

July 31, 2022 9:09 am

Here in England the recent warming of our Springs is also been linked to CO2 climate change.
But when you dig deeper interesting facts start turning up.Between 1970 and 2020 there has been noticeable warming during the Spring. But also between the years 1970 to 2020 there has also been noticeable increase in the amount of sunshine hours been recorded during the Spring. On average by around a 100 hours over this time. So is it little bloody wonder there has been a warming trend during over the last 50 years.

When you dig a little deeper you can really see through some of there crap claims.

Reply to  taxed
July 31, 2022 9:39 am

More sunlight reaching the ground=warmer temperatures. Less London Killer Fog = more sunlight reaching the ground.
Whatever used to be assumed for Urban Heat Island effect actually gets larger every decade with more taller buildings reducing the view factor from warm ground to cold sky.
It is very predictable that records would be broken by about .5 C due to one or the other of these effects, not to mention the 1 degree of average warming since the Little Ice Age, which we should be grateful for.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
July 31, 2022 9:46 am

Like these buildings all “back radiating” to the ground blocking the cold sky from being an IR sink, that weren’t there 2 decades ago…UHI growth…

Old Man Winter
July 31, 2022 9:38 am

When it comes to Arctic/Antarctic/Greenland/glacier hype, it may be best to
step back a bit & look at global temps for the past 22My. It started turning
cold 14Mya, when both Antarctic & Greenland glaciation began. The temps
leveled off before eventually starting their final larger drop ~3Mya, the same
glaciation period we’ve been in since then. We probably had warmer temps
during the Holocene Optimum & the Eemian, which polar bears obviously
survived. So all the hype is “Much Ado About Nothing”, which I disdain!

July 31, 2022 10:32 am

So will a submarine be able to rise through the ice like the USS Skate did in 1959?

Reply to  Brad-DXT
July 31, 2022 12:23 pm

Quite easily I would say based on this photograph taken a couple of weeks ago.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Phil.
July 31, 2022 1:02 pm

Mr. Dot. That ship is an ICE BREAKER.

Richard Page
Reply to  Janice Moore
July 31, 2022 8:00 pm

A luxury cruise liner of an ice breaker as well. $29,100 per person for a 15 day cruise around the Arctic, Antarctic and other locations with plenty of ice.

Reply to  Phil.
August 1, 2022 7:19 am

Submarines do not have indestructible towers.
Looks like they were at the magnetic pole, not actually at the North pole.

“France-based cruise operator Ponant this week proved it was possible by taking dozens of paying passengers to the ice-bound destination on its new luxury icebreaker, Le Commandant Charcot.

Named after a famous French explorer, the super-hardy, 245-passenger vessel is the first upscale cruise ship to make it all the way to the North Pole with paying passengers.

The 31,757-ton vessel reached the North Pole on Wednesday after breaking its way north through hundreds of miles of polar ice for several days. The vessel set off for the North Pole from the small town of Longyearbyen in Svalbard — a glacier-covered archipelago located far above the Arctic Circle. Longyearbyen is the world’s northernmost settlement.”

31,757-ton vessel, without passengers, food and fuel.
That image was without cruise passengers during a test run to the Arctic. The could have posed that picture anywhere.

Submarines can take severe conning damage busting through thick ice, that is thin ice for a 32,000 ton ship.

France based cruise operator, Ponant, also states this:

There is a very small window during the summers when North Pole trips are practical. Ponant has three more voyages to the North Pole on Le Commandant Charcot scheduled this summer and four departures set for the summer 2023. Fares start at $35,960 per person, including flights between Paris and Longyearbyen.”

Passengers willing to pay $35,960, base fare, to ride a ship to the North Pole, maybe. I rather doubt passengers can positively identify the North Pole exactly. Anywhere with ice can be passed off as the pole.
Our tax dollars at work…

Four trips a year… Seems like high odds that one of those trips will entertain passengers with a severe Arctic storm.
One of these years, an Arctic storm will block that ship in thick ice.
They should pack lots of peanut butter and bananas, just in case.

Richard Page
Reply to  ATheoK
August 1, 2022 8:10 am

There is a very good reason that Le Cmdt Charcot does trips into the Antarctic region as well: otherwise it’d be laid up for half the year – it’s a good way of maximising profits if you can only do those trips for a couple of months a year. Let’s see them do the same publicity stunt at the South Pole! Heh!

Dave K
Reply to  ATheoK
August 1, 2022 11:26 am

You can tell you are there when you see a bunch of submariners playing cricket.

Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 1, 2022 5:21 am

The Russian Typhoon class can easily break through the artic ice at will.

Richard Page
August 1, 2022 8:22 am

No it can’t. The Russian Akula class (NATO name Typhoon or Tayfun) can probably break through 2-3m eventually but simply can’t break through the multi-year ice of about 4-5m or thicker. Icebreakers employ a different mechanism to break thick ice but even they have their limits. I imagine Le Cmdt Charcot can only break through younger ice – it’s not rated to deal with thicker multi-year ice.

Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 1, 2022 8:23 am

It could right now: the ice round the Pole is heavily broken up. Many gaps (polynia)

The Skate had to search hard for a then rare polynia in the ice with only a few feet of ice to break through… there is absolutely no comparing the solid, old, thick, continuous ice of 1959 with that of the present day

It doesn't add up...
July 31, 2022 10:58 am

Another nonsense forecast from the Met Office. Doubtless they won’t discuss it when it shows up as badly wrong.

Richard M
July 31, 2022 11:07 am

It’s a bit surprising the Arctic ice is doing as well as it is given the AMO remains in its positive phase. This may mean it will quickly return once the AMO flips. We could now be just below an attractor state which led to the ice loss.

I haven’t seen any indicator that hints an AMO flip is imminent. Could still be several years.

Coeur de Lion
July 31, 2022 11:28 am

One notices that the UK Met Office is among the most pessimistic- vainly struggling to give Al Gore, Professor Wadhams and the BBC some credibility. How sad.

Reply to  Coeur de Lion
July 31, 2022 1:27 pm

Indeed, you’re right.
But whilst their prognostications – “We’re Doomed! We’re ALL doomed!” – are for the ‘sacred scare effect’, they still have a day job.
Predicting the weather in the UK.
Now, that’s not easy [Geography, near oceans and continents, with a prevailing wind from the west, plus ocean currents.]. Goodness.
And they have upped their output – I reckon they’re mostly right out to about 24 hours or so – more often than not.
Which they weren’t sixty years ago, when, as primary school kid, I and three others forecast weather for W London on a daily basis, and we beat the Met Office by three days right to two.
Over two weeks . . . . .
It was Spring, I think.
Turbulent, and changeable.

But I ignore anything from the Met. O. beyond about four days.
I have a two-sided, cupro-nickel forecaster in my pocket, for that. A penny.


July 31, 2022 8:34 pm

What did the sea ice do before there were satellites measuring it? What a trivial debate, could have been lots more, could have been lots less, measurements began either in 1972 or 1979. Who cares?

Reply to  Michael Moon
August 1, 2022 12:05 am

With most scientists saying an iceage was coming in the 70’s likely it was getting cooler and seaice was growing. If it was growing and the iceage narrative was ending with warming, 1979 was likely a peak. Despite satellites since the early 60’s there is no satellite data available we need to use newspaper articles prior to 1979 for sea ice cover but likely growing, so 1979 likely the high water(ice) mark.

Reply to  Scott
August 1, 2022 8:20 am

no, but there is plenty of non satellite data…

Richard Page
Reply to  Scott
August 1, 2022 8:27 am

If you could get the US and Soviet navy submarine research declassified I’m quite sure there’d be some answers in there. Both countries were conducting extensive research in the Arctic, either for launching missiles from or hunting missile submarines under the ice.

Reply to  Michael Moon
August 1, 2022 8:20 am

We have data reconstructed from national records, ships logs, etc going back into the 1860s in considerable detail.

that shows that the ice is currently lower than at any point from 1860 to 2007 (that includes the 20s and 30s last century).

The ice is now lower than it has been since the Eemian, when the axial tilt produced higher summer insolation and melted the ice.

Phil Salmon
August 1, 2022 3:04 am

Length of day has decreased sharply since 2020. This might indicate growing ice mass at both poles:

Reply to  Phil Salmon
August 1, 2022 7:28 am

On June 29, 2022, Earth completed one spin in 1.59 milliseconds less than 24 hours. This is the latest in a series of speed records for Earth since 2020.”

Be still, my beating heart.

1.59 milliseconds, 0.00159 of a second. Looks like the next glacial maximum is still far into the future.
Though it is sweet to see more signs the alarmists are wrong.

August 1, 2022 8:17 am

Of course if you compare it to dates from 1979 to 2006, or to reconstructed data we now have going back into the 19th century, there is massively less ice this year.

and that ice is thinner, lower by volume, there is less old ice.

The next time we het weather like 2007, 2012 then there’s a new low record coming

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