From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
JULY 18, 2022
By Paul Homewood
Brendan O’Neill:
The unhinged eco-dread over the heatwave exposes how millenarian environmentalism has become.
If you find yourself wondering over the next few days why it is so swelteringly hot, I have an answer for you. It’s because of rich people. It’s because of those wealthy elites with all their gas-guzzling vehicles and reckless holidaymaking. It’s their fault you’re sweating on the Tube.
This infantile claim really is being made, and by supposedly serious politicians. Labour’s Richard Burgon, over on his Instagram account, is wringing his no doubt sweaty hands over the filthy rich folk who apparently landed us in this weather apocalypse.
‘As we face 40C temperatures and the first ever Red Extreme Heat Warning, remember this climate crisis is driven by the wealthy’, he cries. His stern words are accompanied, naturally, by that Met Office map showing half of Britain coloured dark red – the hellish hue that has been chosen to illustrate how dire our predicament has allegedly become.
Is anyone else tiring of all this green hysteria over the heatwave? There is something medieval about it. There is something creepily pre-modern in the idea that sinful mankind has brought heat and fire and floods upon himself with his wicked, hubristic behaviour. What next – plagues of locusts as a punishment for our failure to recycle?
The unhinged eco-dread over the heatwave exposes how millenarian environmentalism has become. Climate-change activism is less and less about coming up with practical solutions to the problem of pollution and more about demonising mankind as a plague on a planet, a pox on Mother Earth. These people really do view hot weather as an indictment of humanity, and a forewarning of the imminent heat death of our world that we’ve brought about with all our evil pollution and consumption.
They’re all at it. Caroline Lucas says, ‘The climate emergency is right here, right now’. One observer describes Europe as a ‘continent on fire’ – which just isn’t true, is it? – and says the hot weather is proof of ‘the ravages of climate change’. The words ‘heatwave hell’ are appearing everywhere, and many in the opinion-forming set know exactly who’s responsible for this hell: me and you and everyone else who has dared to live modern, technological lives.
This isn’t the first time a weather event has been depicted as a hell of man’s own making. When the latest IPCC report was published last year, hell talk was widespread. ‘If we do not halt our emissions soon, our future climate could well become some kind of hell on Earth’, said an Oxford prof. And of course we brought all this fiery punishment upon ourselves just as surely as Sodom and Gomorrah invited God’s divine retribution by being so perverted. We are ‘guilty as hell’, the Guardian’s environment editor cried, sounding for all the world like one of those crackpot millenarian preachers you’d see on street corners in the old days.
To my mind, there could be no better proof that climate-change activism has become an End of Days cult than the fact that its chief ideologues are now even incapable of enjoying hot weather. They feel the sun’s rays on their faces and all they can think about is the Armageddon that the modern masses have created with their cheap flights and their 4X4s and their addiction to disposable fashion.
When you see everything as a sign, as further proof of your own apocalyptic belief system, you have a problem.
Let’s have some perspective. Propagandistic terms like ‘extreme weather’ and ‘Weather of Mass Destruction’ are meant to whip up fear in the populace every time there’s sunshine or floods. And yet, as Bjorn Lomborg points out, the number of people dying in climate-related disasters has plummeted spectacularly over the past hundred years.
In the 1920s, close to 500,000 people died every year in storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves. In 2020, just 14,000 people died as a result of such natural calamities. That means global annual deaths from climate disasters have fallen by 96 per cent. The modernity that eco-warriors so disdain has actually helped to protect humanity from the violent whims of Mother Nature.
Lomborg also points out that in most parts of the world, cold deaths ‘vastly outweigh’ heat deaths. So while the warming of the planet might increase heatwaves, it will reduce coldwaves. Which will be very good for human life. Are we allowed to look on the bright side anymore?
This isn’t the first time extreme weather events have been blamed on wicked human beings, whether it’s Richard Burgon’s wealthy elites or just people in general driving their diesel cars and taking two easyJet flights a year. No, in the Middle Ages, too, scapegoats were often sought whenever there was a scary climatic event.
As the German historian Wolfgang Behringer has documented, in the 14th and 15th centuries ‘unnatural climatic phenomena’ were often blamed on ‘a great conspiracy of witches’. During the Little Ice Age in particular, when crops failed in many parts of Europe, there was a frenzy of witch-hunting. Some in society ‘held the witches directly responsible for the high frequency of climatic anomalies’.
Sound familiar? I definitely hear echoes of that old, regressive belief that sinister people are responsible for weird weather in today’s attempt to pin heatwaves on the rich or on coal-mining or on motorists. Environmentalism has rehabilitated in pseudo-scientific form the age-old instinct to find the witch or the sinner who is to blame for society’s misfortunes.
Everyone needs to calm down. We’re safer from weather than we have ever been. It’s sunny. Go outside. Sit in the shade. Have an ice-cream.
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There is no question of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change. We have perturbed the Stable State of the interacting complex energy systems which determine climate. It will now oscillate between greater and greater extremes until if finds a new Stable State. It may not be one conducive to human habitat.
The mathematics of the behavior of complex and interacting systems describes the destabilization of Stable States resulting in dramatic changes through a period of increasingly extreme oscillations, leading to dramatic discontinuity and the establishment of a new Stable State.
So it is called Catastrophe Theory.
George, please show, with graphs if possible, when the Earth’s climate was in a “stable state” as you declared. Go back in time as far as you like to show us this stable climate that existed before man’s interference.
Pick one yourself. How long were dinosaurs around? How long before single cell organisms went to multiple cells? Those were stable periods for millions of years and changes were gradual except for mass extinctions. We are losing species as fast as the last mass extinction now. The changes are too fast for live to keep up.
Name some of the species that went extinct. No computer models.
From memory, the Zoologist Lord Matt Ridley informs us that only one ‘species’, as opposed to a sub species, has gone extinct in over 100 years, other than on islands, including Australia.
Nothing to do with climate though for either of the groups. It’s been largely down to introduced predators like Rat’s, Dog’s and Cats killing off indigenous, vulnerable animals.
6th Great extinction my aunt fanny!
You’re telling us you’re old enough to have been hanging around when the dinosaurs were around, with your thermometer, suitably calibrated, to determine a 1ºC shift (or less) in global temperatures over 150 years?
Go back to sleep Rip.
Here’s a graph. Please point to the stable period George. Thanks in advance.
Hoyt, George is referring to a “Stable State”.
This condition is so important that apparently it now has to be capitalized.
Capitalizing a term means that it is beyond need for explanation.
Any ‘educated’ person under 25 years old will confirm this for you.
This sounds more like religion than science.
Oh, wait..
A sphincter says what?
“…activism is less and less about coming up with practical solutions to the problem of pollution…”
Well, that is because, at least in America, the air is clean, the water is clean, and there is no such thing as human caused climate change.
The pollution problem is already solved; environmental protection should be in maintenance mode, not crusader mode. But maintenance mode doesn’t come with the narcissistic ego high that comes with all out crazy zealot mode.
There is another and even more important aspect of green lunacy:
People who know nothing about the engineering of energy are behind the ruinous drive to “green energy” that has wrecked energy markets, sent energy prices soaring, ravaged the environment, further impoverished the poor and has caused riots around the world
https://www.biznews.com/energy/2022/07/19/electricity-crisis-engineering-basics
Try me. I am a former senior engineer for PG&E in California with a Master of Science in Environmental Management. My entire household and two electric cars are powered by the PV solar system on the roof of our house. It paid back in three years in gasoline savings alone, and would take six years in power savings alone. But now we get free power, do not have to go out to “gas up” and do not need tune-ups, oil changes, transmission worries or emissions tests or any engine maintenance at all. Don’t forget to open your garage door before warming up your polluter.
No wonder PG&E is so messed up. I prefer to use my lights at night so solar doesn’t do much. Plus my heater works the most at night so again solar is useless. I get an oil change once every 9000 miles, tune-up every 100,000 miles. You’ll be looking at new batteries then. They are a little more expensive than the tune-up or oil change. And I can go anywhere I want without returning to home base to charge up.
Good luck with the coming rolling blackouts, George. You should have majored in Electrical Engineering; then you would understand some of the technical discussions.
Free batteries and food from PG&E, right?
Pretty soon the cheapest EV will be around 300k, ideal for the millions of California homeless.
No heatwave in Western Washington (at least not my part of it). Mid July and and it’s barely gotten out of the 60s. We had two days of about 80 in June, other than that, zilch.
“It’s because of rich people.”
OK, if that’s the case, then move the World Economic Conference to Zoom instead of Davos, incarcerate Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, John Kerry, Al Gore, Larry Fink of Blackrock Financial, and others of their ilk until they sell their limousines, private jets, ginormous yachts and estates that require the equivalent of the hot breath of Godzilla to heat in winter and similar energy to cool.
When that happens I might pay a tiny bit of attention to you. And no, I will not sit quietly and eat my nutritional paste derived from insects, even if it is jalapeno flavored.
The millennials have just come of age and have no life experience to gauge history. So the genX participatory award parents have to make up more fantasy to tell them, because their whole lives were video fantasy and they are used to that. Lord help them if they ever had to read a history book.
As a Dutch professor recently observed that the very leaders who cannot control illegals pouring into their countries or produce balanced budgets and the most confident in being able to engineer climate across the globe.
Exactly, their incompetence is legendary, and their ideas always include an incremental loss of freedom for their citizens.
The fact that this is so widespread, and covers many different cultures leads me to believe that it is a seemingly inevitable evolution of western style governance to end up in this politically correct, mega-bureaucratic guagmire.
I’d like a reset……… but not the one they’re thinking of.
So the met office finally admit to urban heat, well they should now correct the 0.2 C
allowance for urban heat which was started in 1974. Especially as Heathrow and Kew gardens show temperatures of 2 – 3 deg C warmer compared to surrounding areas.
Another question for griff How many hot summers have there been in the UK
above the mean Temperature of 16.5C and when were they.
Well to save you looking it up. Since 1650 there have been just 32 in total
Two in the 1600s – Eleven in the 1700s – 6 in the 1800s – Ten in the 1900s
and only three so far in the 2000s
I understand that in Eastern parts of Europe and Western Russia, they are actually having near record cold temperatures.
Why are others so consumed with making sure others are not happy and pushing scary at every turn. Facts don’t matter, truth is silly and doesn’t help and we are in the way to this utopia where all people are fanned by wild animals and eat only grapes and drink wine. As close to death as I want to get right now is to say I am at the end of my rope and the stupidity ruling over us. I say separate already and start over as I have already picked my side
On the CBC website, the state-funded broadcaster in Canada, the first 10 links yesterday were hysterical stories about catastrophic global warming. Scary stories all over the place because europe is going through a heat wave right now.
Guess what the 11th link was? Story about the feds cutting carbon emissions in the oil and gas sector 40% by 2030. You can’t make this shit up!!
Wanna see death and destruction? Watch what happens if any govt enforces 40% emission reductions in oil and gas. It will be a disaster.
Go check out front page of CBC.
Obviously the climate hype is reaching a crescendo. The SCOTUS ruling threw a monkey wrench in the whole plan and the greens are reacting on a global scale. Now Brandon is talking about proclaiming a “Climate Emergency”. Whatever the hell that is?
But it should be obvious that this is a contingency to try and keep the master plan for the “great reset”, where by the middle/working classes will be destroyed on track.
Speaking from the southern U.S., I don’t feel your pain. I do worry about the U.S. having to bail you out with the new land war in Europe and exported climate clap trap with clear cutting for wood pellets over here.
A turn of the coin….
“Over hyped, over compensated, and over here”
What heatwave?
There hasn’t been one in the UK, as it has been a few days of hot/very hot weather.
Two many in the media and reports don’t even know what a heatwave is.
What defines a heatwave?
A heatwave is an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity.
The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more. Some countries have adopted their own standards.
How long did the incorrectly named 2022 heatwave last?
Two and half days (the first night didn’t reach the definition)
How long did the proper 1976 heatwave last?
Two months
The heatwave of 1976 started in June and lasted for two months. There was a lack of rainfall and a significant drought, with the government enforcing water rationing. The heatwave was rare for that decade.
All time records were broken today after regional records broken yesterday.
Was the hot weather caused by climate change?
NO
The hot weather was caused by a weather pattern causing very hot air to move northwards towards the UK with perfect precision from North Africa giving around 24c/25c 850mb temperatures. This air at this temperature has not been recorded over the UK before so minmum high and record high temperatures over the areas were broken. (25.9c/40.3c)
A warmer planet may have increased temperature by a little, but because of such extreme source it is difficult to know if this was the case. For example 35c/36c was widely recorded in England over the 1st and 2nd of September 1906. July is around 3c higher than September so 38c/39c could had been easily expected even back in 1906.
Was this source extreme like from North Africa?
NO
The source was from Spain so even though still very hot not quite as hot as North Africa. This means that if the source was from North Africa back in 1906 then temperatures would had been higher still. One or two degrees higher than the possible July temperatures back in 1906 of 38c/39c would lead to the current 40c recorded today. That provides the scientific evidence that the hot weather was not caused by climate change, but via the extreme source of air by the temporary pressure pattern.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1906&maand=9&dag=1&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa
The media are saying this will happen a lot more and become the normal?
Only how this could become the normal is if the source of air is often from North Africa. A warmer planet would likely cause slightly higher temperatures but there is no science that supports a change in regular direction. Atlantic westerly winds will still dominate the UK climate.
What about grass fires breaking out in some regions?
This year England especially has been very dry with only one month above average all year so far. The land is tinder dry in many places and the recent very hot WEATHER has made matters worse.
Fires don’t start without a source and naturally that is lightning. There has been no lighning strikes over the areas where the fires have started so the cause has unfortunately been careless humans. They are a few major incidents going on burning property, so hopefully these will be put out soon.
The BBC is reporting record temperatures at Heathrow Airport; 40.2 degC (and also RAF Conningsby; 40.3 DegC) today (19th July 2022). I’ve emailed both Heathrow Press Office and the UK Met Office for the location of the Stevenson screen since I was unable to geolocate it myself from the one photo I could find on line. I’ve heard anecdotal reports of a temperature of 40.6 DegC on the Strand in London in 1808.
Anecdotally this temperature reading is ignored because the precision/calibration in 1808 was not up to modern standards but metrologists knew how to build precision thermometers back then. Also the Strand is right next to the Thames so there is likely to be a cooling bias in the reading.
I await a reply from one or both of those organisations.
The Stevenson screen wasn’t invented until later in the 19th century so it would have failed reliable observsation readings. The activists against science are not going to let that spoil their agenda like especially the one mentioned below.
There was a 39c recorded I think in London about 100 years ago and that was erased from records that did have Stevenson screen.
The MET can erase their records but they can’t erase the contemporary reporting.
100 Degrees In London | Real Climate Science
Thanks, that looks like it might be the one.
I posted google map links to both stations yesterday in this thread.
“It saddens me to see that the party of my youth, the Democrats, have embraced global warming as fervently as Massachusetts Puritans embraced the belief in witches.”
Dr. William Happer
It saddens many people to see that Will Happer came to this end. His legacy will be forever tarnished. His own fault.
Lol…democrats love the fraud Mann. Do you?
This is the 850 temperature anomaly map from the NCEP Ensemble mean that I like to use to see large scale blobs of heat/cold and track them globally thru 360 hours.
People familiar with this product, will note that in the Winter, these anomalies are much more impressive but this one over Europe is pretty impressive for the hottest time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, when heat anomaly extremes are tougher to generate because of the increasing negative feedbacks inherent in the system the hotter that it gets.
Cold anomalies in the Winter are also much MORE extreme because they’re experiencing ZERO solar radiation to low angled weak solar radiation in the high latitudes. This maximizes net heat loss for months during that time of year. When cold air pools under that environment…..it’s REALLY cold air.
In the Summer, at the high latitudes you have solar radiation most of the day to offset heat loss to minimize the magnitude of the cold(cool) air pooling.
So let’s actually discuss the impressive positive anomaly feature on this map.
If you live in that region right now, it’s huge but looking at the big picture, it’s isolated/over a small area of the planet and tells us…….
that its clearly not global in nature. Instead, it’s the result of unique, regional weather dynamics that all came together in one spot at one point in time………..and since its the hottest time of year climatologically in the Northern Hemisphere………..wherever this type of thing happens, it will result in record highs, potentially all time highs.
This is part of the very expected weather/climate on the planet.
If not, then do you expect us to never get hotter or colder than the temperatures of the last century+(since records have been kept)?
You would have to assume that extreme temperatures from 1850-2022 should never be broken because that was the most extreme time in that last 10,000 years.
Who really thinks that? OK, probably almost nobody here.
When is the most likely time to break all time records for extreme heat…..anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere?
Right now.
So unless you actually think no heat records from 1850-2022 should ever be broken(which is silly) this is normal extreme weather. It’s high end extreme but still normal extreme weather.
If this was happening over a low population area……………it wouldn’t get that noticed/attention. But it’s over a high population area in the developed world……..so it gets extreme/maximum exposure…….and twisted like a pretzel to mean something much more than the basic meteorology/climate 101 explained above.
Did global warming contribute to this?
Very likely. The average temperature in the UK has been around +1 degree C warmer vs 100 years ago.
So places hitting 40 deg. C today, would likely have been just 39 deg. C a century ago.
One extreme side NEEDS events like this to feed the fake climate crisis narratives and junk science rhetoric.
However, if we took an authentic poll of all the worlds creatures and biosphere, dialing in the key metric to measure it………greenness of the planet, we see conclusively that most life prefers the slight, mostly beneficial warming and greatly prefers the higher but still not optimal CO2 level.
The minor approximately 1 ℃ warming we’ve experienced is primarily in the winter nights, not the daytime maximums. Just looking at the U.S.’s 4th National Climate Assessment Report, the maximum temperatures peaked around the 1930s, declined rapidly and have stayed the same for decades. Peak heatwave temperatures cannot be caused by climate change.
A nice day today. Put on my kapok breeches and sawed up a tonne of birch logs for winters net zero cold blast. Took britches off and split some of them. Sod the neighbours in suburban Surrey. Watered garden , lounged in sun , went down to river to paddle a kayak for a couple of hours . Excellent day to practice rolling. Had a beer and went back home for a late lunch. about 5 had the urge for more Thames paddling to cool down then came home and watered garden just as a thunderstorm happened. Had a G and T and blethered on blogs. Well it probably was the hottest day in England since 1767 when the first started recording temperatures. I really hope that we did not have many hyperthermia deaths, and have not yet heard the media bleating so maybe it did not happen. The hypothermia to come in winter for those without my logs, now, that will come by vritue of govemental sins of omission , not extreme weather
“the first ever Red Extreme Heat Warning”. Well of course. They have only just invented it. And they changed their map colours too:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/met-office-forecaster-debunks-doctored-183259235.html
“Left – old school weather forecast, happy and sunshiny. Right – new style weather forecast, Designed to look like fear and destruction. It’s called summer.”
[Open the link and scroll down to the pic, or try:
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/F0wdP72X2gpy_8cx2NBPpg–/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ4MQ–/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/IlTJw3eV4zY67BEwVcwLhA–~B/aD05MDE7dz0xMjAwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_independent_577/ad0a28d99be9e216b921a0c2cf8f2960 ]
For all the cricket fans, the heat in England has favoured the South African cricketers. In their first ODI they beat England by 62 runs. No one on either team died of the heat despite the Met office alarmist warning.
Did the Met Office predict that cricket team members would die because of the heat?
If not, what are you talking about?
According to the Daily Mail 18 July (Britain goes meltdown):
Met Office warns that ‘thousands will die.’
Those out in the sun and exerting themselves must surely be most at risk.
Drawing the logical conclusion from the alarmism of the Met
we could expect a death or two at the match.
Having often played cricket nearly 60 years ago in temperatures up to 40C
I found the alarmism ludicrous. That is why I mocked their logic.
The Daily Mail?
Oh dear.
Is it like CNN. ABC, MSNBC….
I would have given a direct link to the Met warning but could not access it. I had to depend on the third rate DM report. I would be quite happy if you found and attached the link. Then the readers would know if the Met actually issued this wording or if the DM made it up. I am inclined to believe it is genuine because the Met regularly goes down the alarmist path as does the DM.
Maybe they dies from the “vaccine?” 😉
We wouldn’t have a cricket season in Australia or Sub Continent if we didn’t play cricket in 40 degree heat.
On a somewhat more serious note: Is it possible that the UK heatwave is due to La Nina? The current heatwave in the UK is less severe so far than their 1976 heatwave, as it is at similar overall temperature but so far it appears likely to be of much shorter duration. The headline temperatures in 2022 are from a few airport / urban sites. One feature of 1976 was that it was the third of three consecutive La Ninas (1973/4, 74/5, 75/6). La Nina causes floods in some places but droughts in others, and low rainfall causes higher daytime temperatures. We are in a 2-year La Nina now. Maybe the 1976 UK heatwave was caused by La Nina, and maybe it is now repeating in 2022.
Another very interesting feature is that the 1976 heatwave came at the end of a ~30-year global cooling period with global temperatures lower than today’s. Maybe the UK’s Met Office should put more effort into analysing than into scare-mongering.
“Have an ice-cream.”
Better yet would be a wet T-shirt contest.
(It’s been known for some time now that evaporating water has a cooling effect.)
That cooling effect has wonderful effect on nipples.
OK, I’m game.
Here’s my entry –
G’Day Mr,
“Here’s my entry –”
Much as I hate to admit it, I don’t have an entry, ‘good’ or ‘bad’. A further admission, I’ve never attended a party where such a ‘contest’ was conducted.
Good one, except I don’t like to waste potable water. A dunk in a pool should be enough to get the desired effect.
According to BBC Newsnight today saw the hottest temperatures EVER in the UK. What an absolutely stupid and ridiculous claim. No mention of the word ‘recorded’.
Still, it suits the BBC narrative. Forget the truth, just stick to the propaganda.
Just remembering Paul Homewood’s comments from a month ago, about temperatures in 2050.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/forecast-for-22nd-june-2050/
Doncaster reported to have reached close to 40°C today.
On the 18th maximum CET was 34.8°C. Today’s maximum is going to be hotter, possibly close to 37°C.
No doubt Homewood will now correct his blog and apologise to his readers.
Or was I thinking of a different Paul?
We just need one more model 😉
Maximum for the 19th was 37.3°C. Homewood’s chart (using the newer version of CET) now looks like this:
Mmm! 40.3C allegedly as reported today. I wonder, what do they think the temperatures might have been, if there was a few PPM less CO2 in the atmosphere?
It’s a good question. If you look at the monthly data for July in the UK since 1951, then there has been (up to 2021) a warming trend of about +0.2C per decade; or about 1.7C overall warming.
Assuming (as the vast majority of climate scientists do) that this is attributable to human influences, then you might say that temperatures, in the absence of this human influence, might have been perhaps a degree or two C cooler than they were today.
But this ignores the potential influence of human activity on the jetstream; how the distribution of Arctic sea ice, etc, affects climate.
No kidding. Crazy how we hurricanes numbers are not increasing nor are they getting stronger.
Warming primarily in nighttime lows, not daytime highs. UHI, anyone?
I wonder, what do they think the temperatures might have been, if there was a few sq m less asphalt and concrete?
Well, you can look at sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content too, and they are also rising. Do parking lots in cities increse ocean heat?
Okay you convinced me …. now what?
All I am seeing is you are going to have to learn to live with changed conditions.
Although clearly not its intent, doesn’t this article on the BBC website imply that the UHI adjustments are inadequate. “Her neighbourhood is particularly susceptible to heat. According to 4 Earth Intelligence’s heat hazard scale that goes from one to five, Jorda’s postcode area is a five. On one day last July, the area where she lives was a full 5C hotter than in a nearby park.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62126463
It’s instructive to consider what Prof Cliff Mass from Washington State University concluded about last June’s heatwave in NW Pacific area.
Even factoring in general warming for the region of ~ 1 to 2 F since the year 1900, the temps experienced there last June would still have exceeded what was recorded without any warming influence.
Such was the confluence of dominant natural variation influences.