By Paul Homewood
The likelihood of crossing a key global warming threshold has risen significantly, according to a new analysis.
UK Met Office researchers say that there’s now around a fifty-fifty chance that the world will warm by more than 1.5C over the next five years.
Such a rise would be temporary, but researchers are concerned about the overall direction of temperatures.
It’s almost certain that 2022-2026 will see a record warmest year, they say.
The Met Office is the UK’s national meteorological service.
As levels of warming gases in the atmosphere have accrued rapidly over the past three decades, global temperatures have responded by rising in step.
In 2015, the world’s average temperature first went 1C above the pre-industrial levels, which are generally thought of as the temperatures recorded in the middle of the 19th century.
For a start, the world won’t “warm by more than 1.5C over the next five years”, as the absurd Matt McGrath writes. If he really believes that, he should get another job.
Secondly, why the obsession with temperatures during the 19thC, when the Little Ice Age was still in full swing? There is nothing we can do to lower temperatures back to that level, and nobody in their right mind would want to.
We are where we are, and what we should be concentrating on is what happens in future. But if we do that, of course, the numbers look much less scary.
According to the satellites, the most reliable source, global temperature anomalies have fluctuated between around –0.4C and 0.7C in the last forty years. The exception was in the years following the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991), which depressed temperatures.
These fluctuations are driven by mainly by ENSO changes. The record El Nino in 2015/16 led to temperatures about 0.1C higher than in 1998.:
For the Met Office projection to come true, we would need another massive, record breaking El Nino, which is extremely unlikely, given that the oceans lost so much heat in 2015/16. But even then it would maybe only be hundredths of a degree warmer than 2016.
The reality, unlike the BBC’s vision of apocalypse, is that any changes to the Earth’s climate are tiny, and would be unnoticeable if the media was not constantly banging on about it.