By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The Pause lengthens yet again, and this time by three months. The double-dip la Niña is now manifesting itself in the UAH data, so that there has been no global warming for 7 years 3 months, up from 7 years on the basis of the previous monthly data.

Recently a correspondent who follows these columns and posts climate-skeptical videos on YouTube reported that a new form of invisible censorship has been in place since last summer. YouTube, rather than banning videos or creators outright as it did with Naomi Seibt, has now furtively reprogrammed its internal search engine so that if one enters terms such as “Monckton climate”, which would previously have returned inter alia a small number of YouTube videos by me on the climate question, does not return those videos at all. I have been unpersoned, just as my correspondent has been. I had no idea that this had been done.
At a certain Gothic legislative building on the banks of the Thames yesterday, I discussed this matter in the Committee Corridor with one or two of my Noble Friends, and suggested to them that HM Government should enact legislation requiring all market-dominant internet platforms openly to disclose their censorship regimes, and in particular to give any content creator on their platforms notice when his content is censored (whether visibly or invisibly), and to state the alleged reasons for the censorship, if any.
There would then be a right of appeal before an independent arbiter, and both parties would agree to abide by the arbiter’s decision.
If Google (which owns YouTube, and announced its intention to start censoring its platforms as soon as the electorate in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had given the wrong result) failed to comply with the new provisions, it would be banned from operating at all in the United Kingdom and in all allied countries.
These proposed measures generally found favour with those of Their Lordships to whom I spoke, but it was felt that the present Conservative Government had not sufficiently understood the evolving problem of censorship.
The law of the United Kingdom recognizes only two principles of natural justice: Audiatur et altera pars (hear both sides) and nemo sit iudex in causa sua (let none be the judge in his own cause). The tech minnows currently flout both these principles. By not telling content creators why they are being censored (and now by not even telling them that they are being censored), they flout the first principle. By acting as judge, jury and executioner in relation to their own decisions rather than using an independent arbiter, they flout the second.
The two principles of natural justice are not recognized in totalitarian countries. The tech sprats, by riding roughshod over those principles, tellingly reveal the extent to which they are in thrall to the totalitarian regimes – such as Russia and China – who are the chief beneficiaries of the global-warming scam. Just look at the price charts for gas in Europe or for lithium carbonate for electric buggies worldwide.
Meanwhile, you may like to visit scc.klimarealistene.com, the website of the new peer-reviewed learned journal Science of Climate Change, whose first issue came out last year. Many of you will know of the climate realists of Norway, whose initiative the new journal is. Geir Hasnes and Stein Storlie Bergsmark, the two editors, have taken very great pains to ensure that the journal is of the highest quality.
They kindly invited me to write a thesis-length paper, What is science and what is not?, for the first issue – which is apparently selling out fast. On the strength of that paper, they asked me to write another paper which, like the first, was based on the application of Classical mathematical techniques to present-day theoretical and practical problems.
That paper has now been through the peer-review process and has been published online at the journal’s website. It is available free for all to read for the next few weeks, after which it will be paywalled.
The paper gives an account of the control-theoretic error that has led climatologists to imagine that unabated global warming will necessarily be large enough to be dangerous, when in fact that is merely one (and not a very likely one) of a range of possible outcomes. The paper shows that after correction of the error it becomes impossible to predict global warming accurately at all, since a mere 1% change in the feedback regime compared with 1850 would increase equilibrium doubled-CO2 sensitivity (ECS) by 250%.
If, as seems likely, the feedback regime today is exactly as it was in 1850 (the climate system being essentially thermostatic), then ECS will not much exceed 1.1 K.
There is also a discussion of the simple, probabilistic equation in epidemiology that allows combination of several pre-existing inexpensive, safe and plentiful medical treatments each of which has been shown to cause a statistically-insignificant reduction in ICU transfers and deaths from the Chinese virus.
In combination, these medications cause a reduction in risk of harm from the pathogen that is no less statistically significant than the risk reduction brought about by the vaccines themselves. Combine these treatments with the vaccines and the risk of harm becomes vanishingly small.
I ought to know, because I contracted the Chinese virus recently. It had no more effect than a bad cold, and I had no respiratory symptoms at all. I was in bed for a few days, and somewhat peely-wally for a few days after that, but am now find and walking several miles a day to get fit. I have had three vaccinations, and have for two years been taking four medications which, in combination, have proven more efficacious than the vaccines.
The Indian States of Goa, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh implemented a similar protocol, by which, long before the vaccines became widely available, they distributed to everyone who reported Chinese-virus symptoms a two-week supply of four medications. The Communist-led World Death Organization tried to stop them, but they carried on regardless and more or less wiped out the adverse effects of the virus in their territories.
My latest paper also provides short but in my submission complete proofs of two of the longest-standing hitherto-unsolved problems in number theory – the Binary Goldbach Conjecture to the effect that every composite is the mean of two primes, and the Twin-Prime Conjecture that there exists an infinitude of pairs of primes {p, p + 2}. If you are like me in having number theory as one of your hobbies, you will enjoy this one, which uses the Sieve of Eratosthenes, the librarian of Alexandria until his death in 194 BC.
Read all about it at scc.klimarealistene.com,
The animation shows in real time how stratospheric intrusion reaches Mexico creating a front that breaks over Texas. The collapse results in intense precipitation as frigid air mixes with moisture from over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream has moved further south than models predicted. The animation should be renewed after one hour.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Perhaps the most powerful snowstorm in years is now developing in the US.
… and it will be blamed on global warming.
With such a thin troposphere, it is impossible to predict winter temperatures.
I searched for “Monckton youtube channel” on Duck Duck Go and found it at the top of the list: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXJGWBgVZegLb_uXTo_X7gw
But you won’t find the Monckton channel by searching for “monckton channel” in the YouTube search engine.
I understand that. Just letting folks know that DuckDuckGo appears to be an honest arbiter.
Morning, Lord Monckton. I”m more interested in the overall volume of ash/particulates being pushed into the atmosphere by volcanism than anything else. It does add substance to how the WEATHER works overall, along with the solar influence over the past 20 or so years. Last CME (2008) that just barely missed Earth also seemed to make the Sun go dormant. And yes, Mt. St. Helens did have a dusty, ashy explosion that chilled the weather just a tad in Chicago when it drifted my way. All the Cascades seem to be restless now.
When the most recent (Tonga) outburst is so full of particulates that geology people wonder what’s next, I pay attention. Mt. Pinatubo was quite dusty, too. There seems to be something stirring on the Atlantic ridge, so I keep on checking things on Volcano Discovery and John Seach’s website. There are several Middle Eastern volcanoes that are quiet now, but sit on rift zones. Toba has been shaking again, and there is a huge volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula that is also shaking.
So I’m just asking for some feedback on this, mostly because I don’t believe in coincidences or happenstances. Something is stirring under the Earth’s crust and I do not think anyone is really prepared to deal with that boiling pot of melted rock goo under the Earth’s crust. It appears to me to be something that goes in cycles, kind of the way a pot of soup boils. And I do NOT think we are really prepared to face it at all.
Thanks for your feedback. Have a nice weekend.
Jumps in geomagnetic activity, with moderately weak solar winds, can trigger increases in seismic activity.
Here’s a prediction.
The most sinister form of censorship is silent censorship which has become possible, because these platforms show a different view of what is being displayed to each different person who goes on.
So, if this were twitter or Disqus or fascist book, then I would post something and it would appear to me, when I view their platform, but it does not appear to anyone else. Indeed, soon, they will be using AI to even suggest that people are commenting on posts, that no real person is seeing.
This is utterly evil, not just because it is a denial of free speech, but it literally theft of our time and effort, which is then totally utterly wasted … and that is their intention.
People who do that should go to jail. There are legitimate reasons to censor such as illegal content, but censoring must be done in a way that we know it is being censored, so we can appeal against it.
PS The link (not text) for the link to the Journal of Climate Science is wrong It should be
Just wait until we start freezing our tushes off as a result of the Tonga volcano. All hail the Tonga volcano 🌋!
The estimate I saw for Tonga SO2 emissions was 0.4 MtSO2 [1]. For a point of comparison Pinatubo was 15 MtSO2 [2]. it would not be unexpected for the UAH TLT temperature to drop some from Tonga but I question whether UAH TLT will be able to detect it given the relatively small ejecta volume and SO2 emissions.
Anything to keep the Rise Alive.
I’ll take your word for it but I thought Tonga was much bigger than pinatubo
I think that, for a massive and long-term climate temps drop, you need a volcano bigger than Tonga, which is why I brought up those questions. The enormous Russian volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula has a caldera as big as Toba’s lake and it quivers now and then. IN actuality, you’d likely need a bunch of gassy, particle-blowing volcanoes to really shut things down, and that includes a lot of machinery like airplane engines, e.g.
It’s most likely it won’t happen in our lifetimes, but — well, we can warn the KIDS, can’t we? 🙂
Temperature drops in the stratosphere above the 60th parallel.

Is a La Niña in November 2022 possible? It seems likely.
North Dakota, you did it again! The lowest temperature in the lower 48 this morning.
If you control for the urban heat island effect, water vapor and albedo, you don’t get warming for over 100 years.
https://youtu.be/9gqpD5QZm60
https://imgur.com/a/CDasqHH
Australia’s wealthiest man, Twiggy Forrest, has filed legal proceedings against Meta/Facebook for allowing his image to be used repeatedly in an internet scam.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-03/andrew-twiggy-forrest-launches-criminal-proceedings-facebook/100800630
The “free” platforms have become messy and corrupt information sources; best avoided. The big platforms no longer permit free speech. If it is not woke then it is censored.
This is a video search for “Monckton Climate” on DDG:
monckton climate
An impressive number.
Not much about the latest pause.
Was hoping for more.
Some comments to spark it along.
Staircase or real?
Only time will tell.
Only one side will be right.
If it takes 30 years a lot of us will not live to find out.
Chances of a Wadhams in reverse?
The standard deviation for temperatures seems badly underestimated. In itself this is a good thing.
Temperature like ENSO seems to vacillate around a fairly predictable range with a quite lax amount of room to operate in but not go outside of.
This means we could get lucky if it is natural variation with a couple of compensating La Nina’s restoring sense to the world within as short a range as 5 years.
A good remperature drop of 0.18 C in a month is worth 3 months short tem [1 month] and 3 months medium term [4 moths ] if it is maintained giving a year’s increasse in the pause in 4 months.
But it would take a new drop of 0.2C , sustained to really get a wriggle on.
Extremly unlikely if the La Nina has truly finished.
[Will cross all toes and fingers] .
Impressively handsome fellow, too!
Posted this on fb, who added : Missing context
%3Fitok%3Db4HJXJ8w&cfs=1&ext=emg0&_nc_oe=6f846&_nc_sid=06c271&ccb=3-5>=1&_nc_hash=AQEk3Q2dP7RMGzaNAFP United States
From independent fact-checkers
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Video misleads on data on CO2-driven warming
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IOW, FB oppose the free exchange of information and ideas which was the basis for promoting the internet to the public over 2 decades ago.
Farcebook has recently been forced to admit that its soi-disant “fact checks” are in reality merely the opinion of its [largely Communist] contributors. There has indeed been no global warming for more than 7 years (almost 8 years according to HadCRUT4). The effect of such long Pauses is to reduce the overall rate of warming to little more than a third of the midrange rate originally predicted by IPCC in 1990.
I’m curious what you are looking at. I’m looking at the IPCC FAR for scenario B (the one most like the current emissions trajectory) and I see about 0.6-0.7 C of warming from 1990 to 2021. This compares to 0.65 C of warming via HadCRUT over the same period. I don’t know. It looks pretty close to me. I’m using the FAR SPM figures 5 and 6 to assess the scenarios and figures 8 and 9 to assess the predictions of those scenarios.
This has been a long running discussion I’ve had with him. According to Monckton in 2016 the FAR predicted
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/25/introducing-the-global-warming-speedometer/
But since then he’s found creative ways of reinterpreting the report to produce warming rates of around 3.4°C / century, which I’ll him to explain.
I’m still not sure how that amounts to three times as much warming as observed.
Interesting. I do see page xxiv in the FAR SPM pdf file here. Not only is that section for the Business-as-Usual scenario only I do not even see the figures he is citing. I got my figures from that same file using pixel measurements mainly from figure 9 one page up at xxiii so I think I’m pretty close. CMoB, if you could clarify what you are looking at that would be great.