Hurricanes in 2021 Were Unprecedented — as in U𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗹𝘆 F𝗲𝘄

Originally tweeted by Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) on January 15, 2022.

Hurricanes in 2021 were unprecedented — as in 𝘂𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗲𝘄

Globally, 2021 had the fewest hurricanes 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 in the satellite era (1980-2021)

Did you see that reported anywhere?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

Globally, 2021 had some of the 𝗳𝗲𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 strong hurricanes in the satellite era (1980-2021)

Did you see that reported anywhere?

With 16 strong (Cat 3+) hurricanes, 2021 was the second-lowest strong hurricane year since 1980

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

Globally, 2021 was a weak hurricane year

When measured by total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), 2021 was the 9th weakest year

Did you see that reported anywhere?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

Hurricanes in 2021 were weak and exceptionally few

But we heard lots about North Atlantic hurricanes

Conveniently, North Atlantic is the only basin where hurricanes are stronger

Does this leave us well-informed?

2021 hurricanes weak

But we hear lots about 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘀 (hurricanes + weaker storms)

Ever-easier to detect, so numbers keep climbing

(4 of 2020s 30 named storms wouldn’t have been named in 2000!)

Not as relevant, but hey, scary numbers

Originally tweeted by Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) on January 15, 2022.

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Tom Halla
January 16, 2022 6:11 pm

The green blob operates on the slogan of Nathan Bedford Forrest, “Keep up the scare”. Forrest was also a founder of the KKK.

Dave Fair
January 16, 2022 6:14 pm

Quick! Tell Griff: He will reference it before he understands the implications.

MarkW
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 16, 2022 10:27 pm

Just tell him that the article proves that the number of hurricanes is unprecedented, and he’ll be citing it for years.

Derg
January 16, 2022 6:19 pm

The world has never been better for humanity.

Zig Zag Wanderer
January 16, 2022 6:39 pm

Our children won’t know what hurricanes are!

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 17, 2022 5:43 am

Think of the children!

Mr.
January 16, 2022 6:59 pm

So a warmer atmosphere means we’re less exposed to doom by hurricane?
How good is that?

Joao Martins
Reply to  Mr.
January 17, 2022 3:33 am

Mr., you should ask instead: “How bad is that?”

Matthew Bergin
January 16, 2022 7:01 pm

Some of those named storms were only storms for less than 12 hours. 👎😞

H. D. Hoese
Reply to  Matthew Bergin
January 16, 2022 7:25 pm

Wonder what the ratio of named storms to duration is over time? I watched Atlantic storms closely, sure seemed quickly named.

Joe Gordon
Reply to  H. D. Hoese
January 16, 2022 8:06 pm

Next year, they’ll prepare us for the regular letter set, the Greek letter set, and they have a special Sanskrit letter set ready for the next group of named storms.

That third special set of letter is particularly impressive, as all Sanskrit consonants at the beginning of nouns are pronounced “you will die.”

rah
Reply to  H. D. Hoese
January 17, 2022 12:29 am

A decade ago the average ACE for a named storm was 8. This year it was 2.2.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  rah
January 17, 2022 3:52 am

What about that, Griff? Why isn’t CO2 upping the ACE? More CO2 in the atmosphere, but less ACE. More CO2 in the atmosphere, yet temperatures are currently cooling. How can this be explained, Griff, and be consistent with the claim that CO2 is causing all this weather?

I look forward to your detailed explanation.

Frederick Michael
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 9:00 am

The second law of thermodynamics explains why storms have become weaker, which is one of the main BENEFITS of global warming.

The significant reduction in the strongest US tornadoes fits the theory perfectly. Hurricanes are affected by more variables and so don’t show as strong a trend.

Someone should write this up. Of all the arguments against AGW being bad, this is one of the cleanest.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 3:01 pm

Something that Mankind is doing counteracts CO2. Easy. Just don’t ask about the math.

Ebor
Reply to  rah
January 17, 2022 6:58 am

Cheaters

Fred Hubler
January 16, 2022 7:06 pm

Another miss for the hurricane forecasters at NOAA.

Joe Gordon
January 16, 2022 8:02 pm

This is from August, almost half-way through the season. The NOAA doesn’t even try to be secular these days. They predict goremageddon just as easily as most of us make coffee in the morning.

——
“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”
NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
——

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Joe Gordon
January 16, 2022 8:40 pm

For the second year running we’ve been told here in the south-west pacific that we’re in for an unprecedented cyclone season. What do we get?

*crickets*

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 17, 2022 6:29 am

They will be right one of these years…just by the law of averages…and the climageddonists will get 2 years of smug “we told you so” out of it…

Ozwitch
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 17, 2022 7:11 pm

When I was a kid in primary school in Queensland, we were taught that there were roughly 10 cyclones in each Australian season; and of these about six would make landfall. These days if we get more than one hitting land a season it’s unusual.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joe Gordon
January 17, 2022 3:55 am

“NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.”

Yes, they missed that by a mile. CO2 seems to be clouding their vision.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joe Gordon
January 17, 2022 8:27 am

One of the underlings must have plotted the probability table upside down.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joe Gordon
January 17, 2022 3:03 pm

Where’s the CO2 in their models?

Last edited 4 months ago by Dave Fair
Steve Case
January 16, 2022 8:51 pm

Here’s a good one from NOAA:

U.S. Department of Commerce National Weather 
Service North Atlantic Hurricane Tracking Chart

comment image

If you count up the number of lines in the inset, it sure looks like there were 21 Atlantic hurricanes in 2021 doesn’t it? If you bother to read what it says, yes, I know you can’t read it, it lists all storms most of which are Tropical Storms not Hurricanes. You could count the tracks but that gets a bit dicey. If you search deeper you will find that last year there were 11 hurricanes including 4 major hurricanes not 21..

I’m of the opinion that misleading charts like that are no accident.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Steve Case
January 17, 2022 3:56 am

“I’m of the opinion that misleading charts like that are no accident.”

I’m of the same opinion.

Newminster
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 5:25 am

As I reckon are most of us whose salary does not depend on believing otherwise!

Ebor
Reply to  Steve Case
January 17, 2022 6:59 am

Cheaters

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Steve Case
January 17, 2022 8:30 am

If you search deeper you will find that last year there were 11 hurricanes …

The number “11” looks familiar. Isn’t that what Judith Curry predicted?

January 17, 2022 12:23 am

I guess, then, even a little decarbonization works? Reminds me of, “just think how much sicker you would be if you didn’t get the vax.” I mean, how will we ever know? Sure is great to have a theory that is supported by everything that happens.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Jeffrey C. Briggs
January 17, 2022 3:20 pm

OK, people. I’ve been infected with the ChiCom virus 4 times! Twice since getting the 2 jabs. I’m 73 y/o and do not fear death; it will come to all of us. Living in fear of a statistically small chance of death is not living. If you fear death so much isolate yourself. Leave the rest of us alone.

FJB and the Deep State. My advice is to get on with your life and vote out the Leftist fearmongers. If someone can keep you from traveling, shopping, dining out & etc. based on your vax status, they can limit your activities and job prospects based on your social score. FJB and the Cancel Culture.

griff
January 17, 2022 12:31 am

so no mention of the record temperatures and heatwaves in the last 12 months? No mention of the extreme ran events? No mention of the droughts and fires?

and no mention there were damaging hurricanes (Ida, super typhoon Rai, Kentucky record tornadoes)

There is an increase in extreme weather caused by climate change

Joe Gordon
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 2:46 am

Those who have faith see evidence for their faith in every event.

But, yes, I believe there’s a new record for tornadoes in December in Kentucky, at least in the last 150 years.

No mention from you of all the extreme events that didn’t happen this year. If we played the same game, I bet I could come up with more extreme weather events that didn’t happen in 2021 than you could come up with extreme weather events that did happen.

You and the mainstream media don’t play fair, though. You’d never agree to a rational analysis of the data.

MarkW
Reply to  Joe Gordon
January 17, 2022 3:13 pm

griff goes on and on about record highs, but ignores record lows.

Alba
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 2:52 am

“No mention of the extreme ran (sic) events? No mention of the droughts 
There is an increase in extreme weather caused by climate change”
Yes, folks, the super scientists can prove that any kind of weather is caused by global warming. You got a bit of dry weather? Oh, it must be due to global warming. You got a bit extra rain? Oh, it must be due to global warming. Today I indulged in some extreme walking. I normally walk about a mile. Today I walked a mile and a yard. Followed by some extreme drinking. Normally 125ml of wine. Today 130ml. But I couldn’t help it. It was caused by global warming.

Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 3:38 am

You are mixing causes and effects. “Climate” is an artificial construct: it is an average weather during a certain period. “Weather” is the real thing, “climate” results from weather.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joao Martins
January 17, 2022 8:33 am

Just like Greta can see CO2, griff can see climate in weather.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 4:01 am

“There is an increase in extreme weather caused by climate change”

Only in your mind, Griff. The weather statistics say differently.

You’ve seen the numbers many times, as others rebut your claims, but I don’t expect you to change your tune now. You are not an unbiased observer of the situation. You stubbornly refuse to accept the real world. This is how religious fanatics behave.

Mike Edwards
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 4:54 am

There is an increase in extreme weather caused by climate change”

You keep on saying this when even the IPCC says differently. What data are you looking at?

It seems to me that you simply have a faith and that scientific data plays no part.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 5:46 am

I DO believe in spooks. I do, I do, I DO!

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 17, 2022 8:35 am

But, “007” died!

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 5:59 am

Record tornados! LMAO. Maybe record breaking tornado tracking devices. They can track and catalogue a tornado in a few seconds now even ten years ago there would be a six month argument before something got classified as a tornado. Tornado activity has been way down for over a decade.

MarkW
Reply to  Bob boder
January 17, 2022 3:15 pm

You don’t understand. No tornado had ever hit that building in December before.
That proves that CO2 is making tornadoes worse.

Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 6:18 am

In the early 80s I had a tornado rip right through my neighborhood, tore up a cornfield, rip the roof off a barn and plucked the tops off about 2000 yards by of trees in a small wooded are near the farm. This was all with in 2 blocks of my house. Today that tornado would be counted then no one would even stop to think about what it was or who to report it to. The only people that would have cared was the farm and the insurer.

as for unprecedent weather, I have said it a million times there are many once in 1000 year events happening every day in the world, why because its a really big place (most so called once in a thousand year events are really once in 50 year events anyway).

I saw somewhere that the eruption in Tonga was classified as a once in a thousand year event. LOL, Tambora, Krakatoa, Pinatubo and the list goes on and on. were they caused by global warming, how about the 2 greatest disasters in the last 200 years? The tsunamis in Indonesia and Japan, these 2 are true unprecedent events were they cause by AGW?

The answer is no and also you have no clue what is and isn’t unprecedented.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  bob boder
January 18, 2022 11:21 am

The way the Climate Fascists come up with all their claims that [fill in the blank] is “unprecedented” is to limit the scope of what they are looking at to be small enough to exclude all the…precedents.

The 2021 European flooding was a classic example of clamoring about something that has happened many times before, and well before human industrialization so they can’t even attempt to blame it on that, as if it was new/worse than ever/caused by “climate change.”

DMacKenzie
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 6:41 am

Feb 11, 2021, Western Canada broke 15 low temp records, 23 for the previous 2 days, 53 low temp records for the previous month….didn’t even make the CBC national news….a few days heat wave in Litton BC went worldwide media in the summer.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7634414/another-12-new-record-lows-set-in-alberta-amid-prolonged-cold-snap/

Last edited 4 months ago by DMacKenzie
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  DMacKenzie
January 17, 2022 8:38 am

Certainly you aren’t suggesting that the Media have an agenda!

Sunsettommy(@sunsetmpoutlookcom)
Editor
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 6:47 am

More lying from Griff who seems to forget to look up the data from the NOAA showing over the last few decades of a DECLINE in extreme weather events fewer landfalling Hurricanes fewer Tornadoes, here again from the post YOU ignored completely:

Where Is The “Climate Emergency”?

Hot days are down, Hurricanes numbers are down, Strong Tornadoes are down, Wildfires are down, and more in the link you are ignoring.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 3:12 pm

The claim that there were extreme events is easily refuted by looking at history.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  MarkW
January 18, 2022 11:27 am

Yes, but you have to look at all of it.

The Climate Fascists and the Climate Deluded are capable of only selective vision when looking at “history.” The whole “climate change” bullshit story is a “cherry pick,” beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age and ending in the most recent Climate Optimum.

Or they cynically use meaningless metrics that have nothing to do with the weather getting worse, like the amount of “damage” caused, which speaks more to stupid development practices than to anything about the weather.

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 3:28 pm

Griff, without data comparing the weather statistics of the last 12 month with every 12-month period from about 1900 your comment is without substance. If you would but look at, for example, Roger Pielke, Jr.’s work you would see there is no upward trend in weather disasters. Your fearmongering is like the boy who cried wolf, people will stop listening to you. On WUWT, however, you will receive ridicule from people who have the facts.

rah
Reply to  griff
January 17, 2022 5:22 pm

LOL! Nothing that hasn’t happened before really. Over all the adjusted tornado count for 2021 was below the mean. And it was below average in 2020.

To be a Griff you must have no knowledge of weather history. You must think that all bad weather is unique to your time. And above all NEVER EVER actually look at data that conflicts with your views.

comment image

Mark Broderick
January 17, 2022 1:32 am

The “Weak Year” graph is shown twice !

Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 3:46 am

From the article: “Globally, 2021 had the fewest hurricanes 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 in the satellite era (1980-2021)

Did you see that reported anywhere?”

No, I did not see it reported anywhere. It smells a little like self-censorship, to me.

Alarmists were so eager for hurricanse season to come around so they could claim that CO2 was causing all the trouble, but 2021 threw them a curve ball, and didn’t give them hardly anything to use as a climate change talking point.

Griff didn’t get to add many hurricanes to his list of CO2-caused weather events this last year. He did work hard to make the most of Hurricane Ida, but there wasn’t much for him to report after that.

Ebor
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 7:03 am

You just wait, next year will be worse! /s

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Ebor
January 17, 2022 8:41 am

Or not. Que sera sera.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 8:05 am

“Did you see that reported…”

Instead of paying a legit journalist a buck a word, most media outlets, even local news media, get free articles, photos, charts, interview contacts, and videos, by being members of
“Covering Climate Now”, which would never have an article opposite to their agenda.
Be repulsed here:
https://coveringclimatenow.org/

Last edited 4 months ago by DMacKenzie
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  DMacKenzie
January 18, 2022 11:30 am

I wouldn’t give propagandizingclimatenow a single view that they could monetize through advertising.

Bob Hunter
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 17, 2022 11:05 am

What I did see from NOAA, Nov 30, 2021
“This year was the third most active year on record in terms of named storms, it marks the sixth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and this was the first time on record that two consecutive hurricane seasons exhausted the list of 21 storm names.”

“Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Reportoffsite link, released in August 2021, projects with high confidence that the global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (category 4-5) levels, along with their peak winds and rainfall rates, are expected to increase with climate warming at the global scale.”

I just couldn’t bring myself to include their stmt about working hard. ie Working hard at …

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/active-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-officially-ends

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bob Hunter
January 17, 2022 3:59 pm

Anyone claiming that “named storms” is a climate statistic one may rely upon is a fool or a liar. If you don’t understand why that is true, go back and take a logic course.

If you believe the UN IPCC CliSciFi CMIP6 models in AR6 can accurately predict an increase in tropical cyclone strength then you have read nothing of the science behind climate models. “High confidence” is beyond parody.

Western governmental political policy drives the UN IPCC’s reports and the U.S. National Climate Assessments’ obvious political biases. If you don’t understand those facts by now there is not much hope for you to function in society.

Bob Hunter
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 17, 2022 6:04 pm

I was trying to be humorous with their stmts and their claim they WORK HARD

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Bob Hunter
January 18, 2022 11:37 am

I don’t think he was criticizing your post, just emphasizing a point…

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Bob Hunter
January 18, 2022 11:35 am

in terms of named storms

Nothing like using a completely meaningless metric that has been altered over time in order to be artificially inflated in order to get your propaganda across!

I guess the next natural step will be to come up with a metric that is completely disconnected from any actual weather, like “This year was the third most active year on record in terms of media headlines.”

Last edited 4 months ago by AGW is Not Science
Bruce Cobb
January 17, 2022 5:59 am

Meanwhile, here in New Hampshire, we are getting another “climate event”, aka weather, with a combination of snow changing to rain and high winds. The changeover to rain, mostly in the southern and eastern parts is due to the track dragging in relatively warm air in from the ocean. Had it been some 50 miles further east, it would have been all snow. But, the Climate Caterwaulers of course will scream “It’s Climate Change”!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 18, 2022 11:40 am

Yeah but, didn’t you hear? The children aren’t going to know what snow is because of climate change…AND heavier snowfall is “consistent with” global warming.

So clearly “climate change/global warming” *predicts* ALL outcomes, usually as they are occurring outside your windows.

Clyde Spencer
January 17, 2022 8:23 am

Hurricanes in 2021 were weak and exceptionally few

Well, 2021 was the coolest year in the last six years!

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
January 17, 2022 9:54 am

And according to AGW that should make hurricanes worse, increasing the temperature differential equator to poles.
Not many parts of this theory seem to work out in practice it seems

Lindsay Gatward
January 19, 2022 5:32 am

‘Solar Minimum’ started summer 2020 and since then a massive reduction in tornadoes in the USA and a similar reduction in Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. Seems the Sun controls our weather and climate and likely through more than just heat energy. The violent ‘weather’ and massive magnetic fields of other Solar System planets need an external energy source to explain their ferocity and Birkeland electric currents coming via the Sun are very likely the explanation.

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