From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
It’s so cold, even Norwegians refuse to ski!
On the Finnmark plateau, between Kautokeino and Karasjok, temperatures dropped down to -35°C on Sunday. The forecast for the coming week shows a temperature anomaly for the last days of November of 10°C below the reference period 1961-1990, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute informs.
Coldest out is Nikkaluokta near Gällivare in Norrbotten with -36°C.
In times of climate change, the current freeze comes in sharp contrast to last fall, when meteorologists reported about the hottest October and early November ever measured, with an average of 6,7°C above normal across the Arctic.
Cold weather even sweeps the coast of northernmost Norway where the Arctic waters are kept ice-free by the warm Gulf Stream. In Kirkenes, on the border to Russia, the thermometer read -25°C on Saturday outside the Barents Observer’s office.
On the Kola Peninsula, Sunday November 28 came with temperatures from -18°C to -30°C the news online Severpost reported.
Further east in the Russian Arctic, quickly accumulating sea-ice on the Northern Sea Route has created a critical situation as a number of ships have been trapped in thick sea-ice for several weeks.
At the ski resort Ruka near Kuusamo in northern Finland, this weekend’s opening of FIS Cross-Country World Championship is deeply troubled by the frost. With temperatures below -20°C, the start of the competitions was in jeopardy. Norway’s team withdraw from the race, arguing it was too cold to ski.
Extreme freeze over northern Scandinavia causes energy prices to soar to a record high. The main reason is high consumption combined with ice formation on rivers with hydropower plants in northern Sweden. The northern regions of Norway and Sweden are closely linked together in the same electricity grid.
Low production in Sweden pushes prices up, also in northernmost Noway. On Sunday, a kWh came with a price-tag of 1,92 kroner/kWh (€0,19/kWh) on the spot market, the highest cost for electricity inside the Arctic Circle since 2010. Current prices are up to 10 times higher compared to the average daily over the three first weeks of November.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2021/11/deep-november-freeze-sweeps-across-arctic-europe
And it’s not just the Barents Sea, the situation is now getting critical at the other end of Siberia:
The quickly accumulating sea-ice on the Northern Sea Route is creating a potentially critical situation along Russia’s east Arctic coast. For several weeks, a number of ships have been trapped in thick sea-ice.
Several ships have also been waiting to sail into the area. For many days, the Tiksi, Yamal Ibris, I. Trubin, Polar King and Arshenevsky were located in the Kara Sea awaiting icebreaker assistance to their destinations. On board the ships was thousands of tons of equipment needed by local authorities and companies in the Chukotka region.
However, none of the ships will reach their destinations. In mid-November, they all turned back westwards and are now about to make it to Arkhangelsk where the cargo will be unloaded.
According to regional authorities in Chukotka a replacement will come in early January when nuclear-powered container ship Sevmorput will bring the cargo to destination.
The UK has chosen to panic over Omicron (that’s Moronic – geddit?) and so we’re back to masks and working from home etc.
Although our glorious Met Office has predicted a mild wet winter, things have got off to a rather chilly start. Which means like it or not, the heating is on most of the time. Even the [urban] foxes are howling at a higher pitch at night.
I know in my bones this is going to be one hell of an expensive winter. That’s made even worse when we could be fracking gas for ourselves, but won’t.
Wood, coal, kindling on stand-by.
So, more blaming of COVID and CLIMATE. Perfect political gamesmanship in turning reality on its head.
and yet it IS covid and climate doing the damage.
100 mph winds are yet another climate change storm hitting the UK – the latest in a string of them since 2000
“yet another climate change storm”
Absolutely hilarious. At least as good as the average Guardian headline.
Every piece of bad weather is caused by “climate change”. Utter Climate Delusion®.
When we’re next buried by 6 foot snowdrifts, the climate delusionists will tell us (with very straight faces) that they are all caused by “climate change”.
Griff only reads Guardian headlines.
Last winter they were telling us that cold weather is also caused by CO2.
“the latest in a string of them since 2000″
He forgot to add 2000 BC ! 🙂
Very true. Storms a few centuries ago, during the Little Ice Age, were far worse than today. Our generation is incredibly lucky to have lived in a period of moderate warming as the planet emerged from the LIA.
During the LIA, storms were so extreme that people thought it couldn’t be natural, so they blamed it on witches – hundreds of completely innocent people were judicially murdered after being found guilty of “weather cooking”.
Fortunately we’ve evolved since then – but, judging by Griff, not much. Still, at least we don’t burn climate sceptics at the stake. But give it time….
Chris
Step off Griff
I am willing to nudge .. wink 🙂
You must be very young, green and wet behind the ears if you have never seen winter conditions like these.
North Atlantic oscillation and La Niña ….happens every 60 years or so.
Baby It’s Cold Outside
https://youtu.be/6d-4aOi3AzQ
Oh, I’ve seen them and it’s a pity that griffy won’t even admit to stuff like this ever happening prior to Today. Midwestern winters range all the way from dry, with little to no snow, up to blizzards that start up on what seems to be a whim and weren’t predicted. Case in point: the 1967 Chicago blizzard was NOT predicted, dumped such a volume of snow on the city that everything – and I do mean EVERYTHING – in the way of transportation was unable to move. Down in the center of the state, power lines were covered with layers of sleet, so loaded down that when the wind blew through central Illinois, the power line poles swayed back and forth under the sheer weight of the ice burden on those lines, and snapped off at ground level. The entire county was without power until that was fixed.
I do have photos of these things from central Illinois. The newspapers in Chicago (Trib and Sun-Times) and the TV stations have photos and video footage of what happened in Chicago.
This storm was NOT predicted, period. Snow and cold, yes, but a blizzard???? No. And yet now, we get irrational predictions of something that peters out to a nothing-burger, and it’s blamed on “glowbull warming”.
You know what power source really isn’t affected much at all by high winds?
Nuclear.
Give up the solar/wind fantasy, and embrace the reality.
Nuke ’em!
griffter, just two days ago you were arguing that the lull in wind experienced by Europe over a whole year last year was just normal variability of the weather. Now you’re claiming that a very short term wind event is caused by “climate change”. You simply can’t have it both ways. Nobody is that stupid, not even you, so you have an agenda. Come clean, what’s your scam? Solar in the rainy and dark UK?
For years now, every winter griff has been proclaiming that each winter storm was just weather, while during the next summer he proclaims with equal fervor that every warm spell, no matter how minor, is proof that CO2 is going to kill us.
Griff has pretty much claimed every possible thing that you could in relation to climate.
If we had a forum, I would have created a thread title Griff’s contradictions
It would have been a long list.
That’s ok, none of us have the time to read all of that.
Griff. It’s a beautiful day here in Virginia with normal temperatures. Is this also caused by climate change? BTW, is the year 2000 the beginning of your record?
David,
For the griffter, and most alarmists, the goalposts are just as movable as the historical data!
Modern data that doesn’t fit the approved narrative gets disappeared!
I’m guessing that there were no such storms during the period 1979 to 2000, because he usually tries to start history in 1979.
Well, there was “The Great Storm of 1987” in the UK, which perhaps he’s forgotten about. It was called a Hurricane at the time and did in fact meet the definition, although it was not a tropical storm.
It killed 18 people and felled about 15 million trees in the UK. It is compared with “The Great Storm of 1703” in the UK, which was even more deadly.
On 25 January 1990, there was another great storm affecting England & Wales – not quite as big as the 1987 storm. However, it killed 39 people, probably as it was a daytime storm, unlike the 1987 one.
Storm Arwen, the 2021 storm, does not really compare with either of these. It has damaged a lot of electric transmission lines, although I don’t think it is anywhere near as bad as the 1987 storm. Some of my relatives have been off power since the storm and will not get it back until Friday (basically 1 week). A damned good reason to ensure that you have alternative sources of heat.
Interestingly, the UK Met Office admit that 1987-strength storms are much more likely over Scotland due to its proximity to the major storm tracks across the North Atlantic. The UK is a place that gets regular winter storms – it’s the result of being downwind of the Atlantic, where they brew up.
There was this bad one. No mention of climate change. BBC ON THIS DAY | 14 | 1979: Freak storm hits yacht race
And about 10 degrees above normal down on the Gulf Coast but headed to normal temperatures next week.
And yet more lies spewed by the li9e spewing liar, as usual.
Takes cold air to create the temperature gradients which give you the 100 mph winds
Yep, thats why i said Griff is correct! it is the climate, unfortunately for him its the cooling climate that cause big storms not warming.
Griff we’re you born yesterday?
It’s truly embarrassing
fretslider,
Don’t twit the poor, beleaguered griffter about his emotional maturity; he’s having enough trouble justifying all the accumulating data of an increase in global cooling!
Just imagine the inner conversation required to explain to oneself that warming causes cold and ice; it makes Sméagol’s arguments with Gollum look like a pillow fight!
I think that the defining characteristics of Progressives are irrationality and detachment from reality. We tease them about believing in magical unicorns, but it isn’t too far off the target.
More comic relief from WUWT’s resident clown.
I remember the storm of 1987, I walked over some of the rotting hulks of the giant beech trees felled in that storm this morning. Was that before climate change? Or just weather. Idiotic anecdotal fearmongering will not cut it here.
Actually it’s a string that goes back forever, but griffie likes to ignore history so that it can pretend that CO2 is causing everything.
And COVID isn’t doing the damage, it’s government over reacting to COVID that is causing the problems. But then socialists never object to damage that is caused by government.
The evidence that storms or any weather extremes globally are in any way anomalous or increasing, is unconvincing to nonexistent. It looks very much like business as usual.
“100 mph winds are yet another
climate changestorm hitting the UK – the latest in a string of them since2000…. time in memorial”Grifter, I think you’ve lost grip of reality, you’ve gone skipping off into the long grass unaware of your delirium and oblivious to the effects that it is having on your cognitive decline.
For now your secret is safe, but if you start howling, we will be obliged to call social services.
Griff, sweetheart, I’ve lived in the UK for half a century. We’ve always had high winds at various points through each year.
That’s a lot like it is here. Although we’ve always had fierce fires in the state, now they are caused by global warming. And this year was the worst ever – not including the period from 1542 to present. Cabrillo discovered California in 1542. Before then, there were no recorded fires. There were no recorded earthquakes either, which many locals believe are caused by global warming.
Just another anecdote. The Braer oil tanker hit rocks in Quendale Bay, just west of Sumburgh Head, on the south tip of Shetland, just before midday on 5 January 1993. Winds were hurricane force. Over 800 miles away, my wife and I were on our one and only trip to the UK that week. In London, the wife had to lock arms with a friend and lean into the wind to keep from falling in the high winds. She and I had to do the same on our subsequent visit to Dover Castle. The winds lasted for days.
Griff, your new strategy of attributing every severe weather event to climate change is deplorable and patently false (derisive laughter). Of course, you are simply following the new CAGW script — weather attribution — after all attempts to convince the world that climate catastrophe is on the way have failed.
By the way, Griff, what is the probability that my wife and I arrived in the UK at the exact time of an extraordinarily rare weather event?
The Day of the Triffids?
Is this “Griff” for real? Or just a troll looking for attention? Some AGW’ers are so confused I can’t tell a troll from just brainwashed.
[Snip] is now claiming a virus that kills 1-2% of its hosts is doing damage, despite the fact in many countries traffic accidents cause more deaths, and meanwhile 1000s of people are now dying of late diagnosed cancer, and of course even more in the tropics MALARIA. (lots of them children).
Winds don’t reach 100mph in the UK, gusts very rarely exceed 70-80mph, which they have been doing in Equinox periods in the UK for centuries.
[Let’s leave the insults and name calling to others and not employ them here. -mod]
“Winds don’t reach 100mph in the UK”
Well, that statement isn’t true – yes, wind speeds of 100mph have occurred in the UK with some regularity over the years. It isn’t very surprising when you look at the great length of coastline exposed to westerlies coming in off the Atlantic.
Stop being a prat, Griffy. The wind speed for the latest ‘storm’ was way below 100mph with a gust measured at 98mph occurring at one point. If you keep exaggerating and lying then we will keep slapping you down. Are you just incapable of ever telling the truth?
Yes.
Was there more to that question?
Go sell your anti-science crazy somewhere else, Griff. We’re all stocked up here.
IT’S NOT JUST GLOBAL WARMING SCIENTISTS BEING STUPID
The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Climate doomsters have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction, of the ~80 they have made since 1970, has FAILED TO HAPPEN.
“Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50:50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid.
These climate doomsters have not been telling the truth – they displayed a dishonest bias in their analyses that caused these extremely improbable falsehoods, these frauds.
The global warming alarmists have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – they have been 100% wrong about every scary climate prediction – so nobody should continue to believe them.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this wrong for this long – they have followed a corrupt agenda – in fact, they knew from the beginning of their catastrophic global warming narrative that they were lying.
The radical greens have NO credibility, make that NEGATIVE credibility – their core competence is propaganda, the fabrication of false alarm.
Excerpted from my latest paper:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
by Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., October 20, 2021, Update Nov. 8, 2021
http://correctpredictions.ca/
Regards, Allan 🙂
Another reliable claim from griff. You can rely on griff not to give data to back up his claims.
Griff for once is correct! the cooling climate is increasing storm strength.
The UK government chose to panic
Most people have other things to worry about
Is it a coincidence that omikron is an anagram of MicroCon (almost)?
But it is for sure no coincidence that the WHO skipped the letter Xi to kiss Chinas presidents ass.
And that they skipped Nu so we don’t refer to the virus as Nu World Order Virus?
So defending Xis Nu world Order virus was more important to them than defending children from experimental drugs.
The Xi variant of the Chinese virus – has a ring to it…
SxyxS,
China is a$$ho…!
rearrange the letters in omikron to get moronik
I’ve seen it spelled omicron and omikron.
Is there an official government office somewhere that assigns proper English spellings of Greek words?
If you are transliterating Greek, it’s “k.” There is no equivalent to “c” in the Greek alphabet – there is “kappa” for the hard sound, and “sigma” for the soft sound.
It doesn’t matter in English, though. The “cr” combination cannot be said with the soft “c” sound.
Omicron is the first strain to side step the vaccines.
Those that have not taken the vaccines appear to have the strongest immunity.
Pfizer refuse to release their test data prior to public use until 2076. The FDA acted on their behalf to secure the embargo in the USA. Therefore there is no evidence of efficacy and suppression of transmission at all. It appears a higher percentage of the vaccinated died than the control group.
All vaccinations should be stopped immediately.
Heavily vaccinated countries such as Ireland are suffering the greatest outbreaks.
Vaccine apartheid is becoming the norm, endorsed by the vaccinated. Locking those with the strongest immunity out of society for political purposes.
Can’t wait for the climate change lock downs.
Please correct me where I am wrong.
Do you have a citation to support that claim?
The sample size from the data is small so far, but there is a doctor in Botswana that is reporting that us unvaccinated plebs don’t show any symptons from omicron.
Hi Clyde
From the text of the Swiss scientists
“Natural immunity against re-infection may also decrease, especially in places that have not yet faced the Brazilian or South African ‘class 2’ escape variants, which is the case in Europe, the US, and Asia. Nevertheless, natural immunity is likely to remain stronger than vaccine-induced immunity, due to a broader antibody response, a stronger T-cell response, and first-line mucosal immunity”.
https://swprs.org/omicron-hits-the-mutation-jackpot/
Regards
” Nevertheless, natural immunity is likely to remain stronger than vaccine-induced immunity, ”
Maybe you tell that to the nurses, doctors and surgeons in Germany’s hospitals, where the COVID patients are filling the ICUs at an unprecedented speed while more and more nurses can’t continue to work under such a stress and give up.
In some of the hospitals, the COVID patients come in with such a tempo that
Currently, 70% of the COVID patients in the intensive care units of German hospitals are not vaccinated.
And the 30% 😉
… are vaccinated. In some hospitals, the ration moves down to 15 vac / 85 unvac; the lowest known to me was 12/88.
People like seem to be interested only in what fits to their narrative. The rest? Waste?
Lol it works for all 😉
That is a blunt lie! It is just the other way around. 70 to 80% of those in hospital is fully jabbed. Even The Lancet published this.
NO, IT IS NOT A LIE.
This is official info from the Robert-Koch-Institut, an German institution which very certainly knows better about Germany the the Lancet.
” In Deutschland waren laut Daten des Robert Koch-Instituts zuletzt rund 30 Prozent der Covid-Patienten auf der Intensivstation vollständig geimpft. Dabei ist zu beachten, dass es hierzulande wesentlich mehr Geimpfte als Ungeimpfte gibt. ”
*
” In Germany, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, around 30 percent of Covid patients in the intensive care unit were recently fully vaccinated. It should be noted that there are far more vaccinated people than unvaccinated people in this country. “
Link to the Pfizer non sharing of data
https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/fda-asks-federal-judge-to-grant-it
Link to a recent study on Omicron variant
“Omicron hits the mutation jackpot” – The South African Omicron variant is the first Covid variant to achieve immune escape from all three major antibody classes. Is it finally time to panic? ask Swiss Policy Research.
https://swprs.org/omicron-hits-the-mutation-jackpot/
Moderna statement.
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/11/30/omicron-variant-likely-to-resist-covid-vaccines-warns-moderna-ceo
I interpret “little” as NO protection. the next variant will be on us before they produce vaccines for the Omicron variant. They make huge income just trying to see the cats tail let alone catching it.
There is no discussion on the blocking effect of the natural immune system by the current vaccines. Stopping the jabs can leave some in a negative state of natural protection.
Getting the current version of the booster jabs will give “little” protection to the Omicron variant. So if you live in a country where vaccine apartheid exists, and you refuse the current booster jabs because they are ineffective, you are in the same boat as me – excommunicated from parts of society, ridiculed and treated as a threat to society.
Stay safe, get naturally healthy, get fit, and stay well hydrated with water and reduce all food and beverages with a low ph effect on the body.
Thank you for the links.
I remain hopeful that the current vaccines will offer some protection – even if it’s only 50% it’s as good or better than many Flu vaccines. A vaccine does not need to be 90% effective to be useful.
As for mandated vaccination, I remain strongly against this practice.
These are gene therapies…MMR VACCINES are rolling in their graves
You seriously believe there is a pandemic and those are vaccins?
Check out the latest statements from WHO. They seem to agree that vaccines are likely to remain effective, and that the disease caused is typically mild.
As far as I know (and I stay on top of this pretty well) we do not yet know if the Omicron variant is better at avoiding the vaccine immunity response or not – so to be stating “side steps the vaccines” is just conjecture. The vaccines could also be less effective but still reduce the infection rate and hospitalization – unknown at this point.
The likelihood that the Omicron variant is less severe is good news if confirmed, but with the rate of mutations in the virus it is only a matter of time until a variant gets around the Delta and/or vaccine immunity response.
Luckily, we can continue to develop more effective vaccines that are harder to mutate around.
Robert
Link to a recent study on Omicron variant
“Omicron hits the mutation jackpot” – The South African Omicron variant is the first Covid variant to achieve immune escape from all three major antibody classes. Is it finally time to panic? ask Swiss Policy Research.
https://swprs.org/omicron-hits-the-mutation-jackpot/
There are links withing the document.
Yes we hope they can get ahead of the curve, but that always have been a very difficult thing to achieve, even with Flu jabs. It would be fair to say that this virus is the most studied currently
My purpose is to create awareness because some folks think that they have an invisible protective shield currently.
Regards
The first reports from SA are that “50% of patients presenting with Omicron are unvaccinated.” Nice wording – a very tiny bit of that “racist” math means that 50% of the patients ARE vaccinated.
SA has a vaccination rate that is somewhat below 25%.
writing observer – Robert
If 25% of the population are vaccinated and 75% are non vaccinated, but 50% of presentations with Omicron are vaccinated, (25% of the population make up 50% of the presentations) there is a real problem with the vaccines.
If these values are correct.
Governmental promotion slant is that the non vaccinated are the spreader problem. Regardless of scientific facts, most governments and officials are being guided by the pharmaceutical companies toward a path of total vaccination, and vilification of the non vaccinated so that the vaccinated will act as societal leverage. Divide and conquer.
It is exactly the same with climate change.
“Omicron is the first strain to side step the vaccines.”
There’s no evidence for that yet.
I am not allowed to comment, because of alleged “thread-jacking”, despite my ~3000 hours of research and my excellent predictive track record on this subject – 1-2 years ahead of the pack.
But you are correct, except that omikron is not the first to side-step the “vaccines” – to my knowledge the “vaccines” really only addressed the alpha strain, and did so poorly and short-term – a deadly debacle – Schlachthof 6.
Your finest comment:
All vaccinations should be stopped immediately.
Moderators, do your worst – I regret that only have one life to give to my country…\
[you really are pushing for a ban for non-stop spamming~cr]
I’m taking a break – no more posts until the New Year.
I just updated my latest paper this morning and will continue to do so:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
https://correctpredictions.ca/
I wish everyone a wonderful Holiday Season!
Regards, Allan
If you can, find some bog standard Kerosene (about 60p per litre at the mo) and get yourself a greenhouse heater from B&Q.
Toasty warm, no mess from sparks and ashes and 100% fuel efficient.
Adding 10% of E10 petrol to the paraffin makes it super clean burning and the wicks last longer
This is mine – they make an epic slow cooker for belly-pork and casseroles of all sorts.
(Pioneer sprit lives on in he who, at age 8, helped the engineers bring electricity to his farmyard birthplace)
edit to add:
It’ll cost less to run per day, than just one single pack, maybe 7 or 8 chopped logs, of kiln-dried wood would – also from B&Q
How cold was it? It was so cold the squirrels were using hair dryers to thaw out their nuts. h/t Letterman.
Told you so in 2002 and more specifically in 2013 – 8+ years ago.
We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1130954
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, OCTOBER 31, 2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS ABOUT TO WORSEN AS WINTER ARRIVES
By Rachel Morison On 11/28/2021
LONDON (Bloomberg) –Energy prices in Europe are repeatedly breaking records even before winter really kicks in, and one of the most damaging cost crunches in history is about to get worse as the temperature starts to drop.
A super price spike in the UK last month forced some industrial companies to cut production and seek state aid, a harbinger for what could play out widely in Europe just as it contends with a resurgence of the coronavirus. For governments, it could mean tension with neighboring countries by moving to protect supplies. For households, it could mean being asked to use less energy or even plan for rolling blackouts.
___________________________________________
For the record: We also predicted this outcome in more general terms, way back in 2002.
Another excerpt from my latest paper:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
https://correctpredictions.ca/
CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2002
Well, there is the perfect Trifecta – my work here is done:
In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Allan MacRae published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/10/polar-sea-ice-changes-are-having-a-net-cooling-effect-on-the-climate/#comment-63579
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
Allan MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013, or earlier:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/#comment-1147149
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 26, 2019
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming.pdf
See electroverse.net for extreme-cold events and crop losses all over our planet.
This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as I published in 2002 – one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 global cooling prediction.
I cannot afford to keep my heating on so I wear thermal socks underwear and a woollen hat or I would not be able to sleep.
The Not-Xi virus!
Do not worry. NASA GISS will proclaim this to be the warmest year ever. After adjustments.
Here’s a graphic of what those adjustments look like for
NASA’s Land Ocean Temperature Index: 2010 to 2020
Links to data:
December 2010 J-D AnnMean
December 2020 J-D AnnMean
How to create a hockey stick 101
Hardly a hockey stick. Look at the scale on the chart. These are not drastic changes. They make no difference to the full trend out to 2 decimal places (both +0.06 C per decade). Even from 1970, since when all the changes are positive, the difference in trend between the 2010 version and the 2020 version is 0.01C per decade (0.17 vrs 0.18C per decade). Effectively no difference between the two versions.
Funny you should say that. From the graph, some of the “adjustments” look to exceed 0.1 degree C.
Perhaps Griff, nyolci, and bgdwx would care to explain these adjustments.
nyolci would proclaim that only someone funded by the oil companies would question these obviously justifiable adjustments. Then admit that she has never studied the adjustments, but doesn’t need to because everyone she knows agrees with them.
They reflect changes made to GHCN (v4), which is the source data used by GISS. The changes make no meaningful difference to the warming trend.
Steve,
That looks like a completely random distribution to me! I’m sure that there is no basis to the claims that the sections cooled were once warm cycles and vice versa!
Bwah, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!
” That looks like a completely random distribution… ”
Maybe it looks like, but it isn’t.
Here is a more comprehensive representation of the data differences:
The 2010 revision is in blue, the 2020 is in red.
That looks quite a bit less dramatic than Steve Case has shown, we see that when comparing the trends (in °C / decade):
a) for 1880-2010
b) for 1979-2010
Remember: the trends are for the periods until 2010 !!! The trends for 1880-2020 are of course different:
c) for 1880-2020
d) for 1979-2020
Don’t care about so many digits after the decimal point, they are here solely to show how small the differences in reality are.
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You don’t believe me? Do the same job yourself.
Download the data Steve Case posted the links to, load the stuff into a spreadsheet calc, and let it draw the graph and compute the estimates.
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P.S. I have nothing against UAH data: I generate since years time series out of their 2.5 degree grid.
If somebody is interested, I’m ready to show the differences between
You might wonder.
What Steve Case didn’t tell us is that while the 2010 edition of GISS was based on GHCN V3 with 7280 stations worldwide, the 2020 edition is now based on GHCN V4 with over 27,000.
Of course: some might not appreciate that apparently, adding many stations make trends nearly everywhere increase but not decrease.
I personally don’t appreciate the GHCN V4 adjusted variant, but it is very easy to criticize something that you can’t technically contradict.
Clive Best wrote a lot about that on his blog.
Here are the number of changes made to GISTEMP’s Land Ocean Temperature Index so far this year:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
330 468 338 256 497 348 267 217 285 291
Almost 1500 changes to over 1600 monthly entries just in 2021. This goes on as a steady drone every month for years. And the pattern of changes continues as shown in the 2010 vs 2020 graphic continues. What volume it is really doesn’t make any difference. Here’s one for volume 2 from 2005 to 2010
Some time in January 2022 another graph for
December 2011 J-D AnnMean
December 2021 J-D AnnMean
will show up, and the same changes with the same bias will no doubt appear.
Once again, look at the scale here. The effect on any trends will be miniscule. Whatever these changes are made for, it’s not to increase a warming trend.
That, Steve Case, does not change even a bit to what I wrote.
You simply can’t accept it.
And, like TFN wrote, it would be very good if you could manage to scale your representation in a less alarmistic mode.
Here’s a comprehensive comparison going back to 1997:
Why the changes have been made is a matter of opinion,
That the changes have been made is a matter of fact.
Changes in the various source data sets used to produce the GISS land/ocean data, which are not produced by GISS, are accompanied by peer reviewed publications.
And my opinion is that there’s something fishy going on.
Where is your source for this graph?
Why do you show only data since 1950?
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Apart from these questions, what you seem either not to know about or discard is the fact that you can’t compare a time series made in 1997 with one made over 20 years later.
Simply because
How is it possible to ignore that, after so many discussions in the recent years in that field?
Where is your source for this graph?
My file, the link to the Internet Archives Way Back Machine doesn’t work anymore. Most of the WayBack Machine’s snapshots of NASA GISTEMP files are blocked (I am told) by NASA’s GISTEMP. The question for you is:
What are they trying to hide?
Here’s the header for that May 1997 GISTEMP LOTI File
_____________________________________________
GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in .01 C base period: 1951-1980
sources: NCAR 1752/1988 MCDW-02/1997 NOAA-05/1997 + ocean temperatures 1950-05/1997(Reynolds)
Notes: 1941 DJF = Dec 1940 – Feb 1941 ; ***** = missing
_____________________________________________
Why do you show only data since 1950?
If you read the caption it says:
“The 1997 edition of GISTEMP’s Land Ocean Temperature
Index (LOTI) covered the period 1950 to 1997″
Apart from these questions, what you seem either not to know about or discard is the fact that you can’t compare a time series made in 1997 with one made over 20 years later.
Of course I can make the comparison. You just don’t like it.
“Simply because the data set used for processing was in 2019 incredibly much bigger than it was in 1997; the techniques used for the data processing in 2019 differ considerably from those used in 1997. How is it possible to ignore that, after so many discussions in the recent years in that field?”
Your side of the coin used a single tree in some God forsaken Russian peninsula in the Arctic for your famous “Hockey Stick”
How come when you guys find “new” data it ALWAYS favors your narrative?
Mr Mann,are you a climate scientist?
Hell no, I’m a professional data adjuster.
And how much data are you going to adjust?
Well,how much money are you willing to pay?
This is just weather, not climate. Climate is much more serious and the cold will be out soon, when spring comes (maybe), and then we will see the REAL effects of global warming. It might rain during spring, which is always bad, because too much rain is bad, and too little is bad too, even average rain is bad. /s
even average rain is bad. /s
_______________________
Dunno about rain, but the IPCC tells us:
Temperature Extremes
Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures, leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range.
IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 Page 750 Temperature Extremes
Looks like a recipe for milder weather, so pretty soon
the IPCC will have to warn us about extreme mildness.
By the way, the IPCC removed that wording in their AR5 report:
Projected Changes in Extremes
In most land regions the frequency of warm days and warm
nights will likely increase in the next decades, while that of
cold days and cold nights will decrease.
IPCC AR5 Chapter 11 Page 956 Projected Changes in Extremes
Unlike the oceans, the rain is becoming more acidic.
Good, that’s how caves are formed and I like exploring caves. Now all I need is to live another 250,000 years for them to form.
CO2 is up nearly 140 ppm from the preindustrial revolution estimated atmospheric concentration. So the pH should drop. A short search says the pH of rainwater is between 5.0 and 5.5
Climate stillness crisis
Yeah, but global warming did that. Right, Grifter?
Looks more like the start of the next ice age, to me!
Awesome news. There’s nothing that will make people wake up quicker than to be punished harshly for their stupid beliefs.
I’ve thought for a long time that oil and gas companies should stop selling their products immediately in areas where government is introducing legislation against them. You think the people of Oakland and Bellingham and others will start to think differently when their power goes out and their cars stop moving? I do.
There’s nothing that will make people wake up quicker than to be punished harshly for their stupid beliefs.
Yet how many people still blame gas and not wind/solar for the Texas mess?
What is the media’s propaganda algorithm for reality events like record cold in Northern Europe? The media has the cards are stacked in one direction like running a railroad, so why bother even looking at the deck. For every unit of reality there will be wet blanket of lies. Follow the money and divest. Anyone out there actually look at what your Roth IRA and 401K mutual funds own?
Reality always wins in the end.
Off topic: I just recieved an email from my electric company, to let me know that rates will be going up 20% from January to July 2022 due to the increase in natural gas prices.
Let’s go Brandon.
Regards,
Bob
In Germany we’ll have to pay 30% more for gas by Jan 22.
I have great respect for Navalny’s political opposition to Putin and the NATO process to defend Ukraine, but the fact is that Europe is a little too lightweight to engage in these conflicts.
But Mr Putin needs money, and China no longer is what it was 3 years ago.
So we’ll have to wait and see.
Europe is a lightweight by choice not necessity. The EU has 3x the population and just shy of 5x the GDP of Russia. They could easily resist Russian pressure and put Putin in a bind if they wanted to. Instead key nations like Germany are actively pursuing policies that make them dependent on (nonexistent) Russian good will.
” They could easily resist Russian pressure and put Putin in a bind if they wanted to. ”
Hmmmh. You seem to be very knowledgeable. Well appreciated.
One wonders why you are not busy as a consultant in Europe’s headquarters in Brussels.
Meanwhile, in the uk, heating bills are set to have doubled in 18 months by early next year when it’s coldest there. This could be very serious for those already in energy poverty, willfully enforced by the ecoloons pushing unreliables.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59483411
Whoa, 0.19 Euros per kWh? Why they’re at 90% of the cost of power in California.
That’s not a slam at the Scandinavians, that’s a sad fact for those of us living in California…
Yeah, but its December first, I’m in Northern Cali wearing shorts and a T shirt.
At the end of my first winter in Iowa, temperatures were getting just above freezing for the first time in months. There were still huge piles of snow in the parking lot. We saw a young man entering the grocery store wearing a tank top, shorts and flip-flops.
It’s all what you are used to.
I remember those days fondly. Oh to be 50 years younger again!
Well let us hope the reality of what it takes to rescue ships stuck in that global warming ice in Northern Russia won’t be missed by the alarmists out there.
A nuclear powered ice breaker will eventually get to them and save the day. Note it will not be a battery powered ice breaker. It won’t be a wind powered ice breaker either. Just to round out what it won’t be, it won’t be hydrogen powered either.
When are the climate alarmists going to wake up and smell the coffee?
Rod,
The latest Green Peace research and rescue vessel will have three banks of power production, like the triremes of old! Instead of slave driven oars, the space age design has levels for exercise bikes, treadmills, and rowing machines. For greater motive power; instead of hamsters, gerbils or lemmings; they hope to use alarmist muscle power. One’s food and water will be determined by the amount of energy expended; so it will be a great way to lose weight, especially fat deposits between the ears! This is eco-tourism at it’s finest!
I, for one, can’t wait to see the maiden voyage! Right now the betting odds are pretty even as to where it will get stuck in the ice first; if I were a betting man I’d put money on the Arctic!
Colder than they thought, no doubt.
How could those ships possibly not make it to their destinations? There is no ice in the Arctic! AlGore:TheGoreacle said so.
Ahnold has been doing a reprise of his Mr. Freeze character!
Man, he really could have been a great actor if he had only come along before the development of “talkies!”
Amundsen would be shaking his head ruefully at these wussy Norwegians.
Curious. Global warming seems to have caused colder Temps than usual in a few places in the world. Here in Northeastern PA I’ve had light fluffy snow in my yard for about 5 days now. Can’t remember when this was the case this time of year. Shortly I expect the local Pravda news to say this has been the warmest November ever.
It’s so cold, I saw a chicken with a capon.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road?
A: To get to warmer side.
Silly clucker.
With the AMO headed south unaffected by any covid travel ban, the supply of warm water to which the Arctic and Barents Sea has become accustomed, is diminishing.
It’s striking how media heads seem to have abandoned the “global warming” meme and have pivoted to “wierding” and talk only of extremes. So for instance last year’s Texas freeze is prominent in the examples they list of supposedly new catastrophic extreme events.
So we’re left with “global whatever happens” or “global que sera sera” I guess. All our fault though.
“global que sera sera” Love it !
Ha, yes! We’ve all been wondering what comes after ‘Climate Crisis” and ‘Climate Emergency’.
I think Hatter has hit on it. Global Que Sera Sera covers everything everywhere. We’re d-o-o-o-m-ed!
😜
Globally, sea ice area has increased over the last 40 years:
https://notrickszone.com/2021/11/30/nasa-data-on-global-sea-ice-area-shows-a-growth-equal-to-the-size-of-belgium-since-1982/
Drat!
I’ve been looking forward to taking a cruise on the Northern Sea Route some winter soon; to view the walruses, whales, seals and polar bears interacting in their natural environment! It sounds like the availability and pricing on the nice, exterior cabins will make this difficult.
I wonder if Bad Vlad the Russian Poisoner has any spaces available on his nuclear icebreakers? Nah, he probably keeps those reserved for the corrupt politicians he supports in Germany and elsewhere!
“In times of climate change, the current freeze comes in sharp contrast to last fall, when meteorologists reported about the hottest October and early November ever measured, with an average of 6,7°C above normal across the Arctic.”
So, variability, then.
And when ‘the temperature was 6.7 C. above normal during Oct. and Nov. across the arctic’ just what notably unstated “hot” actual level did it then reach to the great distress of say Laplanders?
Is Greta cold enough?
She is frigid!
[Sorry, I couldn’t resist the temptation! To quote Jack Bennie (Or was it George Burns?), “I’m old enough to know better, but too young to resist.”]
I saw a t-shirt the other day that I really need:
“When does this old enough to know better thing supposed to kick in?”
I almost collided with an old man riding an electric wheelchair and I could not help laughing when I noticed his golf cap with “thinking cap” printed in front.
I’m planning on printing my own, with “old enough to know better” in a large font, the rest in a small font.
I thought ice had been banned from discussion in settled political science. Ice debate has ended don’t ya know.
Completely banned. The only possible discussion on the matter now is about ice-cream.
What flavour was that, Brandon?
About a month ago a rose bush near my front door started flowering again, a sure warning of cold winter start. As it turned out it is a forecasting tool that beats the MetOffice supercomputer any day.
I’m afraid our forecasting tool might outperform yours, but it mostly points in the opposite direction.
Up until 10 years ago we would never have seen flowers like rudbeckia or cocard flowers that were still in bloom at the end of November, let alone a lawn that was still growing or black locust trees that had still not dropped their leaves.
And not a single rose blooms in our garden.
Our last winter that would have deserved this name was in … 2010.
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2021 was certainly not a good weather year in Northern Germany, spring was beneath even lowest expectations, summer mitigated, and autumn was not even warm in Spain: wind, wind, wind.
I thought the climate models predicted northern cold areas would be warming up faster than those further to the south?
Yup, I just confirmed that. OK, so this is weather. Climate is what happens when it supports the models. Got it.
The increasing prices for energy in Germany have nothing to do with any ‘deep freeze in the Arctic’.
They have to do with the permanent conflicts between
Putin is a dictator who dreams of bringing Russia back to the good old USSR, and that is the major problem we face in Europe.
Putin is no dictator, he doesn’t actually have much power and has a complex about being rather short, hence using corrupt old East German methods to get his way, then trying to force the entire (large) country into databases overseen by CCTV.
This second rate, ex-DDR KGB hack managed to stage a coup with his old KGB mates then a cowards always do, try to bully everyone into submission, much as they did in with Mielke and Honnecker’s nasty Stasi.
There is one golden rule with that generation from the early 50s, they will all die quite soon, and it’s not nice to have to admit they can’t take any of the wealth and power with them.
Rising power prices in Germany have a lot to do with German plans to close nuclear capacity and speed up coal closures. Rising gas prices are the result of being caught out by declining supply from the Netherlands and at least temporarily from Norway, coupled to their Russian woes which have been amplified by letting Gazprom control significant amounts of gas storage in Germany. They have chosen to fill storage rather than supply the market, and the storage they control limits the amount of gas that can be redelivered by others. In order to minimise gas drawdown they have been running coal and lignite power stations, but gas is required to heat German homes and to fuel some of its industry.
” Rising power prices in Germany have a lot to do with German plans to close nuclear capacity and speed up coal closures. ”
Wrong.
The rising prices have to do since two decades with a very unlucky decision a majority of people suffer from.
Not only to allow private producers of wind and solar electricity to feed into the grid what they don’t need, but to obtain absurdly high prices for that.
Closing nuclear capacity was in Germany a must due to the lack of storage places able to pick up medium to high level radioactive waste.
And the prices will go up and up because switching to 80 % renews for the 2030 horizon will mean to install huge electricity storage capacities (probably 1G€ per TWh).
The rest is fever in stock markets..
Wrong. The Germans simply got paranoid about nuclear after Fukushima: that had nothing to do with storage of spent fuel for which there is ample capacity across Europe. The Green party is now part of the government, and demanded the shutdowns. The Germans have in fact just cut the bill charges for renewables subsidies – but they have also jacked up carbon taxes by setting a high floor price. There is no sign of any real investment in storage: indeed, existing pumped storage schemes have found life tough financially.
True, almost 70 per cent of home solar PV in Germany comes with battery energy storage attached and the country’s residential storage market representing around 2.3 gigawatt-hours of installed capacity by the end of 2020. But that is puny when measured at grid scale. Large scale storage is simply uneconomic. It’s cheaper to over-generate and curtail, and provide backup.
This is funny, given how much we’ve all been hearing for years now about how the northern sea route and the northwest passage were going to be ice free most if not all of the year, with ship’s crews outfitted in swimsuits and needing sun screen instead of survival suits.
Reality is never kind to True Believers.
Checked the two week weather forecast for my area…it is going to drop into the deep frigid cold of 64 F for two nights! I love most DFW Texas winters (well, most of them)
The cold weather in DFW Texas is usually in January and February, but you occasionally get an outlier year. For reasons I don’t really understand I am expecting a bad cold winter come late January – I hope I am wrong.
It’s so cold, the cows produced ice cream!
Hey, Brandon just woke up when you said that!
This does seem like a self-imposed humanitarian disaster.
Here’s a chart of Nordpool day ahead prices covering Scandinavia and the main EU connected markets.
It shows that Northern Scandinavia was living in splendid isolation from the chaos in Europe until the weather got cold and they were no longer self-sufficient from local hydro, and had to pay EU mainland prices to keep the heating on. Notable is that France is consistently the most expensive market as its nuclear shutdowns leave it short of power. The futures markets are expecting France to remain a big net importer through until the end of February. That almost certainly means they will struggle to find anything to export to the UK when the weather gets cold and the wind isn’t blowing. National Grid’s assumptions about winter margins are likely to prove hopelessly optimistic.
Humans are incredibly arrogant to think they will control the climate rather than cause problems trying.
Can anyone imagine how COLD it would be in Norway if the Earth was not already at its tipping point with Global Warming.
I continue to wonder how long this absolute farce can continue.
Whoever dreamt up the “greenhouse effect” nonsense needs to be tried for crimes against humanity. No knowledgable person could possibly believe this tripe. Some delicate global energy balance upset by a trace atmospheric gas.
Water is not much more than a trace gas in the atmosphere at 10,000Gt, give or take, that will be turned over to land at least once in the month of December. But water has 3 times more mass than CO2 in the atmosphere. On average, the mass of water turned over from net ocean evaporation to precipitation over land in 8 hours is equivalent to the ANNUAL increase in CO2.
Heavy Arctic air attack in Europe.
It is looking cold around the UK and Iceland in the run up to Christmas according to the ecmwf
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/w_sst?area=North%20West%20Europe&base_time=202112020000&level=sst%20anomaly&valid_time=202112170000
I wonder if Greta is back home enjoying all that global warming.
I think this is an all-time griff Number (Ng, the ratio of responses to griff to griff posts) record: Ng = 46. I wonder if that means that it’s worse or better than we thought. Hmmmmm….
It’s no picnic to bicycle in really cold weather either.
Build a sweat, then freeze during less strenuous stretches.
So their biggest concern right now is global warming caused by CO2 emissions.