Surface melt and total melt-day area for the Greenland Ice Sheet at the end of the 2021 spring season was below the 1981 to 2010 average. Snowfall and rain (minus runoff) added mass to the ice sheet. As of June 20, total mass gain for the ice sheet since September 2020 was slightly above average. The spike from June 25 to June 27 will be discussed in later a post.
Overview of conditions
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center/T. Mote, University of Georgia
High-resolution image
The total aerial extent of surface melting (total melt-day extent) through June 20 was just over 2.49 million square kilometers (961,000 square miles), 1.5 times below the 1981 to 2010 average of 3.72 million square kilometers (1.44 million square miles). Melting was slightly below average along the west-central ice sheet, and well below average (10 to 12 days behind the average rate) along the southwestern edge of the ice sheet. Limited areas of the north and northwest had slightly above average melting, but the total extent of these areas was low.
Conditions in context
Credit: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis data, National Center for Atmospheric Research
High-resolution image
Average air temperature at 700 millibar (about 10,000 feet) and the average height of the 700 millibar level (a measure of air pressure) summarize springtime weather conditions. Air temperatures above Greenland varied across the ice sheet, with warm conditions in the northwest and cool conditions across the southeast. The region near Thule in the northwest was more than 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average, with conditions near the major Helheim Glacier in the southeast were about 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.
Air pressure patterns, indicated by the height above average of the 700 millibar level (about 10,000 feet above ground, but higher under high pressure conditions, and lower when low air pressure is present) show an area of moderate high pressure in the northwest of the island and low pressure over the Irminger Sea between Greenland and Iceland.
Greenland is snowy
Figure 3a. This graph shows the estimates of surface mass balance (SMB) for the Greenland Ice Sheet for the 2020 autumn to 2021 spring season (red line) through June 30, 2021 (based on forecast and re-analysis), relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. It also includes several recent years for comparison. SMB is the sum of snowfall and rainfall, minus any evaporation or runoff. The estimates come from the MARv3.11 model based on daily weather measurements and projections.
Credit: Amory et al. 2021, MARv3.11, Xavier Fettweis, Université de Liège, Belgium
High-resolution image
Figure 3b. The top left map shows the total surface mass balance (SMB) over Greenland since September 1, 2020 up to June 20, 2021. The top right map shows the difference from the 1981 to 2010 average, in centimeters of water equivalent. At the bottom is a picture of the west-central area of the Greenland Ice Sheet taken on June 21, 2021, showing persistent snow cover over the fractured ice of the ice sheet.
Credit: Amory et al, 2021
Photo credit: Jason Box, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
High-resolution image
As of June 20, total surface mass balance for the ice sheet was slightly above average total input of snow and rain since September 2020, at about 550 billion tons, 41 billion tons more than average (Figure 3a).
Total snowfall was slightly above average for the ice sheet. Areas that received extra snow this year were across the southeast, where some areas saw 50 to 70 centimeters (20 to 28 inches) more snow water equivalent than average, and to a lesser degree along the western coast (Figure 3b). Large areas of the central and northeastern ice sheet were near-average for the year so far.
Surface mass balance over the ice sheet from September 1, 2020, to June 20, 2021, was about 8 percent above the 1981 to 2010 average, with 7 percent above average snowfall and 10 percent below average melt runoff.
Greenland is snowy
Credit: Amory et al. 2021, MARv3.11, Xavier Fettweis, Université de Liège, Belgium
High-resolution image
Credit: Amory et al, 2021
Photo credit: Jason Box, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
High-resolution image
The full post is available here.
HT/Renee H
when it’s snowy it’s “weather”
When it’s sunny, it’s “climate”!
The reason for increased snowfall is obviously climate change : Warmer air temperature will contain more moisture which translates into more precipitation – any child can see that (viz. Greta Tunberg). This frightening development shows clearly the need to fight climate change.
Very sloppy wording from a professional scientific organisation:
“just over 2.49 million square kilometers (961,000 square miles), 1.5 times below the 1981 to 2010 average of 3.72”
Surely “1.5 times below …3.72” is -1.86 IOW a gain of 1.86 million square kilometers 🙂
The increased snowfall is from the increased cooling the whole Northern hemisphere has done. The only climate change has been cooling since 2016. The Grand Solar Minimum is in effect Just ask Europe with the no spring they’ve had. Or the Southern Hemisphere with cooling temps ,snow in South America, Africa, Aus, NZ. No illusions there. No Heat either.
The DMI Greenland and Arctic pages several times a week. Greenland has been very interesting this year. But the temperature north of 80’N has been much closer to “normal” than the last few years. Winter closer to the average than previously, it’s been warmer for the last few years, whereas summer 2021 has been below average so far.
[ignore wrong chart]
It was reported that Iceland’s 4 largest glaciers stopped shrinking in 2019 for the first time in 25 or so years, while Hofsjōkull grew slightly, and Mýrdalsjōkull had significant growth. I had hoped for an update by now on their 2020 status, but it’s been awfully quiet. So it makes me wonder if this is a case of that law of climate science that regulates update fervency as an inverse function of glacial gain?
This has been a very peculiar summer this far for Greenland:
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20210713.png
Yesterday was the <i>first</i> day with a normal melt.
Another fun fact. The summer weather in the US this year with hot and dry in the West but cold east of the Rockies is disturbingly similar to the weather at the end of the “Little Ice Age” around 1850:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/98/4/1520-0493_1970_098_0259_tcotmc_2_3_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf
Yes, there’s an increase in precipitation (snow) – what you’d expect from a warming planet with more moisture in the atmosphere.
Is the ice cap recovering? Is it now a return to ‘normal’? Heading towards an ice age?
Absolutely not! Greenland is still losing mass…
and this year the arctic sea ice isn’t doing any better: at second lowest extent for date.
Tim Flim Flam Flannery wrote a book called “The Weather Makers”. Apparently, man has been inadvertently causing the weather to change ever since he left the jungle and began to farm, thus releasing “dangerous” CO2 into the atmosphere. The Climatastrophists, being more “reasonable” don’t go back that far, claiming that we began destroying climate only when the Industrial Revolution began, which, according to them was around 1860. Of course, at that point, the Industrial Revolution was already about a century old, but Climatastrophists are never ones to let facts get in the way of ideology. Anyway, they really believe this, despite how ridiculous it is. But they came up with “climate change” as a dodge. But they don’t mean the kind of climate change which caused the MWP (which they deny existed). They mean man-caused planet-destroying climate change, which causes everything known to man to happen, or not to happen, depending on which is more convenient. Such clever people those Climatastrophists are.
“(melt) over 2.49 million square kilometers (961,000 square miles), 1.5 times below the 1981 to 2010 average of 3.72 million square kilometers”
A good report, but an awkward freshman metric for comparison. Better to say melt area was only ⅔ of the 1981-2010 avg. Either he entered the figs on his calculator the wrong way or he wanted to obfuscate the unwelcome result. Maybe they are forbidden to use the word only unless it’s to report hype climate change stuff.
‘Specialists’ at NSIDC have been famously predicting rapid decline in Arctic ice for a couple of decades.
Cold air excursions from Greenland have kept northwest Europe’s summer quite cool so far.
“Melt anomaly” — oh my, another way to amplify noise.
What’s also of interest is that over the last 30 days much of northern most Russia has been having well below average temps as Polar air floods down over it. This cooling looks to be linked to the increase in jet stream activity over the mid Indian Ocean. As this seems to put a zonal limit on the jet stream over Asia.
Which limits warmer air pushing from the south of the zonal stream, while north of this zonal jet stream messy jet stream activity allows plenty of Polar air to flood down from the Arctic. Should this patterning last into the Autumn then l would expect a early start to the snow cover extent over Russia this year.
It should also be noted that according to DMI the Arctic summer temperature has been running below the 30 year mean all season.
In summary, what is happening in the Arctic circle is exactly opposite of what the climate models, many politicians, and so called experts projected! PERIOD!
Natural variability trumps the all mighty CO2!
“The first is a low probability event that was aggravated by climate change. This is what I suggested in my blog–and I am not the only one who believes that the best science supports this hypothesis.”
I agree with that:
“To put it succinctly, they have no evidence that global warming played a major role in the event.”
I think it did in the sense of adding couple of C to the extremes – being supercharged by the overriding AGW signal – but I do not rule out a more major circulation role. How did tropical air that warm arrive above the Rockies in order to be drawn down (Isentropic drawn-down).
Did something outside of past decades occur at the source origin of that air?
IMHO: The Media would be unable to differentiate between the two possible events you outline – and it is entirely correct that experts question the models.
Tell me Cliff:
What was the Pot Temp at 700mb for this event.
Was it anomalous?
There must be charts available that give extremes for June.
If it was anomalous then it is reasonable to ask why.
I say it must have been else there was an even more anomalous rising Pot T with height aloft of that.
Status quo
From same people very interesting study: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-131/essd-2021-131.pdf