Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
The meteorological community is all abuzz about the forecast this weekend: several of the global models are predicting an extraordinarily unusual heatwave this weekend in the Pacific Northwest.
A heatwave so extreme that many locations might experience their warmest temperature on record.
For any day. For any year. And doing so in late June, which is not the usual time for the great temperature records.
Waves are the reason for this heatwave
But there is something else…there is great uncertainty in this forecast and what happens will depend on weather events over the western Pacific during the next few days.
Let me show you… the forecasts are simply insane.
To start, here are the forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday based on the excellent European Center model. As high as 121F in the northern Central Valley of California, 113 and 115 in the Columbia Basin, and 104-105 in the Willamette Valley. Only around 90F near Seattle.
Monday afternoon, Portland is predicted to get to 109F, and 121F is forecast near the Oregon/WA border.
The U.S. model the GFS is also going for extraordinary warmth in the region. A “plume” forecast plot for Seattle is shown below with the high-resolution prediction (blue line) and an ensemble of many lower-resolution simulations indicated.
For Monday, the high-resolution run gets to 111F in SEATTLE (the highest on record is 103F); it appears to be an outlier: most of the ensemble forecasts (gray lines) are cooler, with their mean (black line} only reaching 90F.
The UW high-resolution forecast system is going for 110F in Seattle and 120F in Portland (see below). Simply mind-boggling
This is so nuts I can’t believe it.
The origin of this potential heatwave is a huge, high amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft (see the forecast for 11 AM Sunday. It would represent the strongest ridge in history for our region.
What is the origin of this ridge? It appears to be forced by a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific that moves northward until it interacts with the jet stream, resulting in a series of downstream waves. Sort of like deflecting a long rope and having all kinds of waves propagating away.
The forecast of upper-level flow (around 30,000 ft) over the Pacific shows the waviness developing (see below). Think of the lines as pressure and the shading telling you how unusual the winds are. Wind barbs are also indicated.
On Tuesday morning, the jet stream is relatively straight over the western Pacific and a weak disturbance is moving northward (indicated by an arrow)
By June 24th, the jet stream has started to buckle, with major waviness over the north Pacific.
And by the 26th, the wave has amplified into a huge ridge over our region
But here is the thing. These kinds of interactions between a tropical disturbance and the jet stream are very finicky. Slight changes in the amplitude of the disturbance and where it hits the jet stream can result in major changes in the creation and motion of the jet stream waves.
This produces a great deal of uncertainty. By Wednesday, it all should settle down and we should have more confidence in the forecast.
My own evaluation from looking at a wide range of forecast guidance is that Seattle northwards will escape the worst of this, with temperatures only rising into the mid-90s, but Portland, the Willamette Valley, and the Columbia Basin will experience historical, extraordinary high temperatures.
Portland going to 109F couldn’t happen to a more deserving city. Will it be too hot for antifa to dress in their trademark black mummy suits? Doubtful because they are afraid to show their face.
Since Mike Schmidt the do nothing about rioters DA won’t slow the violence down maybe heat stroke will.
We can always hope.
Here in Utah we are getting the hot/dry end of the climate this past year. No water. And currently 10+ degrees F hotter than normal ( + 5.5 C ). I am hoping for rain soon. Dry and HOT. BUT this is probably to make up for 2 years ago when it barely hit 90 all summer ( currently pushing 100+ this summer )
Read “Unsettled” by Steven Koonin to have all this factually explained. Very good book.
Checked the local weather … hi 80s, one day may get to 90.
This is my hysterical, OMG, the-Earth-is-DOOMED!!! face.
Good news!
CA bureaucrats have solved the problem of not producing enough power & it’s really simple – don’t charge your electric cars at night. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/06/electric-vehicles-on-collision-course-with-reality.php
Earth is getting colder due to low solar activity, just as we correctly predicted in 2002.The catastrophic global warming fraud is coming to an end. Even the most delusional people will realized they have been duped when they are freezing and their gardens are dead, due to extreme unseasonal cold events. CO2 does NOT drive climate.
Low solar activity at the end of SC24 causes instability in the jet stream, allowing cold arctic air to flow much further south, and sometimes causing warm tropical air to flow north. This happened at the end of strong SC23 and is happening even more so at the end of very-weak SC24.
CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET
A CLIMATE, ENERGY AND COVID PRIMER FOR POLITICIANS AND MEDIA
By Allan M.R. MacRae, May 8, 2021 UPDATE 1e
Download the WORD file
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1e-readonly.docx
[excerpt]
This treatise was originally sent to Canadian and American politicians and the media in March 2021. Most of them won’t understand it, because they have no scientific competence and have been utterly duped – programmed for decades by false climate scares and green energy frauds.
This update was written in May 2021 to report even more global cooling as measured by satellites and new harsh cold events, particularly in Europe and North America that have severely harmed early crops. Harsh cold events have struck all countries in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
SUMMARY
We published in 2002 that there was NO catastrophic human-made global warming /climate change crisis, and green energy schemes were NOT green and produced little useful (dispatchable) energy. Dangerous global warming and climate change have NOT HAPPENED and green energy schemes have proved to be COSTLY, UNRELIABLE AND INEFFECTIVE.
Global warming is NOT a threat, but global cooling IS dangerous to humanity and the environment. In 2002 we predicted that natural global cooling would start circa 2020, based on low solar activity, and that prediction is strongly supported by recent evidence.
Politicians foolishly believed scary global warming falsehoods and brewed the perfect storm, crippling our energy systems with costly and unreliable green energy schemes that utterly fail due to intermittency, at a time when we need more cheap, reliable, dispatchable energy due to increased energy demand and imminent global cooling. The people of Australia, Britain, Germany, California, Texas and elsewhere have all suffered due to GREEN ENERGY FAILURES THAT WERE PREDICTABLE AND WERE PREDICTED.
We published in March 2020 that there was no justification for the Covid-19 lockdown, and that it would cause great and needless harm. The Covid-19 lockdown is now estimated to have caused 10-to-100-times the damage of the Covid-19 illness, in terms of increased harm to individuals, families and the economies they depend on.
The same leftist groups concocted and promoted the global warming fraud and the Covid-19 lockdown scam, for political and financial gain. Then these groups linked the two frauds, stating “to solve Covid-19 we have to solve Climate Change” – utterly false and foolish, not even plausible enough to be specious. Then these same groups proposed their Final Solution, the “Great Reset”, a Chinese Communist Party style dictatorship, a centrally-controlled economy where we live like poor slaves, lorded over by our wealthy political masters.
The tragic reality is that the twin frauds of Climate-and-Covid have been accepted by most politicians. Some have covertly or overtly embraced extreme-left politics, and others are so simple-minded and gullible that they believe any falsehood that is repeated often enough. We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
ADDENDA: THE GRAPE CROPS IN FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE REPORTEDLY GONE – FROZEN OUT. NOT “GLOBAL WARMING”.
MORE COLD EVENTS recorded by Cap Allon at https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/
702 TEXANS DIED IN FEBRUARY’S RECORD-BREAKING FREEZE, FAR HIGHER THAN THE STATE’S OFFICIAL DEATH TOLL OF 151
June 1, 2021
PLUS: STUDY FINDS COLD-WEATHER ACCOUNTS FOR 94% OF TEMPERATURE-RELATED DEATHS.
A 2020 study by researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago reveals that it is the COLD which should concern us, not the heat.
RARE “LEVEL 5” SNOWFALL WARNING ISSUED IN SOUTH AFRICA: “THIS COULD BE LIFE-THREATENING”
June 2, 2021
SAWS: “Danger to life and property due to hypothermia and the collapsing of infrastructure, widespread loss of livestock and crops [are expected].”
DELHI, INDIA SUFFERS ITS COLDEST JUNE TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
June 2, 2021
India has been breaking low temperature records left, right and center this year; in fact, since August, 2020 Delhi has busted at least one major weather record each and every month.
COLDEST “SUMMER” WEEKEND ON RECORD IN ATLANTIC CITY
June 2, 2021
A host of records have been toppled, in books dating back to 1874. Trends change (sorry IPCC). Welcome to the next cooling epoch.
16.4 FEET (5 METERS) OF EARLY-SEASON SNOW BURIES MT HUTT, NEW ZEALAND
June 3, 2021
“There’s a huge amount of ice growing out from any metal structure … That ice is up to half a metre thick, may be more, in some places.”
DOUBLE-THE-AVERAGE AVALANCHE DEATHS IN EUROPE BLAMED ON “ABUNDANT SNOW”
June 3, 2021
Jarring with the MSM narrative, exceptional snowfall has been the crucial factor in this season’s high avalanche death toll — across both Europe AND the United States. #GSM
EARLY-SEASON COLD BLASTS SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA + FAILED WINTER PREDICTIONS
June 4, 2021
Sydney’s recent chill is a mere taster to the powerful Antarctic blast currently winding up, due to hit the majority of the Aussie continent by June 9.
HISTORIC FROSTS AND FREEZES IMPACT FARMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE: UK VEGETABLES SUPPLIES “DESPERATELY LOW,” USDA CROP-RATING SYSTEM LABELLED “A JOKE”
June 5, 2021
“Crops look horrible around here, what’s up isn’t that great, stand problems, yellow from the cold, stunted, lots of acres not up yet, and some replanting being done, what a joke!”
HEAVY SNOWFALL ON COURSE FOR NSW, AS AUSTRALIA’S LATEST ANTARCTIC BLAST TO STRETCH AS FAR NORTH AS SUB-TROPICAL QUEENSLAND
June 7, 2021
Wrap up Australia. This, in my book, will go down as your first Grand Solar Minimum winter (of the modern cooling epoch). Prepare for exceptional lows and snows.
HUNGARY SUFFERS COLDEST SPRING SINCE 1987 (SOLAR MINIMUM OF CYCLE 21), AS JUNE’S MONTHLY SNOWPACK RECORD FALLS IN SLOVENIA
June 7, 2021
Europe experienced a bone-chiller of a spring. To call it a “spring” actually does a disservice to the severity and prolonged nature of the cold — I like to think of March-through-May this year as an “extension of winter.”
POLAR COLD GRIPS SOUTH AFRICA, “LOAD SHEDDING” LIKELY AS THE NATION’S POWER GRID STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH HEATING DEMAND
June 7, 2021
Unprecedented “stage 8” load shedding could be on the cards in the near future, as an aging infrastructure plus low solar activity-induced cooling threatens a disastrous combo in 2021.
CANADA CHILLS: VICTORIA SEES COLDEST JUNE 6 SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1899, AS RARE JUNE SNOW SETTLES IN B.C. AND AB.
June 8, 2021
The majority of Canada is suffering an unusual June chill this week, as the Arctic rides anomalously-far south on the back of an unpredictable ‘meridional’ jet stream flow.
ARCTIC TROUGH TO DESCEND INTO EUROPE, BRINGING HEAVY SUMMER SNOW TO SCANDINAVIA AND ICELAND
June 10, 2021
2021 has already been the year without a spring in Europe — and now, the official start of summer also looks under threat, too. #GrandSolarMinimum
SYDNEY SHIVERS THROUGH COLDEST DAY IN 37 YEARS, AS NSW SEES COLDEST JUNE DAY IN 122 YEARS
June 11, 2021
Record-breaking accumulations of SNOW have also been reported, as a pool of Antarctic air delivers eastern Australia its coldest conditions in decades
NIGHTTIME FROSTS HIT ATLANTIC CANADA, AS JUNE SNOW BUFFETS MULTIPLE PROVINCES
June 11, 2021
According to climate scientists, heavy snowfall was supposed to be a thing of the past by now. According to the IPCC, the Sun plays a little-to-no role in Earth’s climate. This is the entrenched idiocy we’re up against.
.
ARCTIC AIR TO ENGULF MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK
June 15, 2021
The MSM is currently milking the West’s brief burst of heat for all it’s worth, ramping-up their EOTW rhetoric and infecting the gullible masses with yet more baseless fear-mongering and calls to action — but now, a dramatic “flip” is on the cards as descending Arctic air threatens to spoil the AGW summer party, with rare late-June snow forecast on the higher elevations of WY.
RARE MID-JUNE SNOWSTORM BLASTS ICELAND: TOURISTS REQUIRE RESCUING
June 15, 2021
“What makes this Arctic depression so special is how southern it is” — meteorologist Einar Sveinbjörnsson.
EUROPE FORCED TO BURN COAL AFTER HISTORICALLY COLD WINTER AND SPRING DEPLETED GAS SUPPLIES
June 16, 2021
We now live in a perverse reality where failed computer modelling trumps real-world observations, where ‘catastrophic global warming’ makes all the headlines yet behind the scenes entire continents are forced into recommissioning coal-fired plants to keeps their citizens alive during season-spanning freezes.
POLAR FRONTS BEGIN SWEEPING THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, AS ANTARCTICA PLUNGES TO -81.7C (-115F)
June 17, 2021
Antarctica has endured near record-breaking temperatures of late. And now a meridional jet stream flow (induced by low solar activity) is beginning to funnel some of that bone-chilling cold northwards, into South America, Australia, and New Zealand.
COLD KILLS 20 TIMES MORE PEOPLE THAN HEAT
June 17, 2021
Study: Of 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012, 5.4 million were related to cold, while *only* 311,000 were related to heat.
HISTORIC SNOWFALL HITS ARGENTINA
June 17, 2021
Previous reports of snow in the city of Córdoba occurred in 2007, 1975, 1955, 1920, 1918, and 1912 (all during periods of reduced solar activity) — this is an incredibly rare event.
RECORD LATE-SEASON COLD SWEEPS ICELAND, AS THE MONTH OF MAY IN PARAGUAY AND URUGUAY CLOSES BELOW AVERAGE
June 18, 2021
If you still believe in AGW at this point you are damaging our society — there is no other way to put it…
NORTH AMERICA: RECORD COLD INBOUND
June 18, 2021
The weather models suggested it earlier in the week, and now they have only gained in confidence: record-breaking cold is inbound for much of the North American continent starting Sunday.
ANTARCTICA IS SUFFERING A NEAR-RECORD BREAKING WINTER — 10C COLDER THAN USUAL
June 19, 2021
Antarctica is experiencing an unusually cold start to winter, cold which is threatening to break the icy continent’s lowest temperature ever recorded–the -89.6C (-129.3F) from July 21, 1983.
RARE SUMMER FROSTS SWEEP THE UK AS RECORD JUNE COLD SETS IN
June 22, 2021
Readings of as low as -3.3C (26F) have been registered, which made for the UK’s coldest June 22 in recorded history, and its second coldest-ever temperature this late into the season.
ANTARCTIC AIR ENGULFS WESTERN AUSTRALIA
June 22, 2021 You will not see this data across the propagandizing mainstream media as it is an all-too compelling rebuttal to the anthropogenic global warming narrative…
MSM SIDESTEPS THE HUNDREDS OF COLD RECORDS CURRENTLY FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES
June 23, 2021
The West’s heat continues to be used as “a sign of catastrophic global warming,” whilst the East’s RECORD COLD continues to be completely sidestepped by the propagandizing mainstream media.
RECORD-COLD START TO SUMMER FOR SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA
June 23, 2021
It’s been a historically cold start to summer for central and eastern Canada, with the Saskatchewan towns of Lucky Lake, Rosetown, and Leader among the locales logging record low temps this week.
“Earth is getting colder due to low solar activity…
No it isn’t, it’s not even well correlated. The (precipitous) drop from 1360.1 to 1359.7W/^2 seems to have actually warmed things further.
https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2165/
Yeah, nah definitely warmer. Stop making things up.
The corrupt mainstream media only report the hot anomalies – Central and Eastern North America are unusually cold now – below freezing temperatures in West Virginia.
FREEZING SUMMER LOWS INVADE WEST VIRGINIA, AS “DRAMATIC” COOL-DOWN AND “POLAR CHANGE” LOOMS FOR NEW ZEALAND
June 24, 2021
_________________
Global LT temperatures have cooled 0.5C since Feb2020, In 2002 we correctly predicted this cooling based on low solar activity. In 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains of North America, caused by excessive wet and cold weather. In 2021 the early fruit and grape crop in Germany and France was frozen out. Spring has been late and cold in the Northern Hemisphere and Fall has been unusually cold in the Southern Hemisphere..
The lying warmist scientists and their comrades in the media were able to perpetuate their global warming fraud during a period of natural, solar-driven global warming, but now the Sun has gone quiet and the world is naturally cooling.
Soon even the most obtuse of humanity will understand that there is no global warming crisis – that they have been duped and scammed out of trillions of dollars. Their vital energy systems have been badly compromised, and lives have been lost due to the global warming / green energy scam.
To end 2020, climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 consecutive times – the odds of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in ~281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid – in fact, they knew they were lying from the start.
Global warming alarmism is a fifty-year-old climate-and-green-energy scam – it IS that simple.
I see that heatwave in the Southwest U.S., that Griff was worrying about, is starting to diminish and return to normal. The area is also going to get some nice rain in the next few days.
Next year the heatwave will probably return to the Southwest and then you can complain again that CO2 is destroying the U.S. Southwest, Griff. You can say that for a few days, and then that heatwave will go away, too, just like this one, leaving you looking foolish for equating CO2 with heatwaves, at least from my perspective.
What is GFS and what is UW and why are they not defined in this article or source blog?
1) all abbreviations except the most common, e.g., UK and NASA, should be written once in full, preferably in ( ) immediately following the first use of the abbreviations.
2) FYI 🙂
GFS = Global Forecast System (90% certain)
UW = University of Washington (99٪ certain).
“This produces a great deal of uncertainty. By Wednesday, it all should settle down and we should have more confidence in the forecast.” – article
Okay, but all that pot-stirring in the West is dragging nice most air down here to my AO and we are finally getting badly needed rain…. so I am quite happy to embrace that.
Are these cranks and crackpots so bereft of something to do that they have to go to all this trouble to tell us that the Earth is going to be like Venus, or something? Just askin’. I like to be informed. 🙂
One of the interweb sites is now predicting 112 for Portland for the highest. The wave is really only about 3-5 days long. “Put a little ice on that.” Meanwhile, central IL weather is absolutely beautiful. Currently.
Cliff teaches meteorology at UW. He leans left, and believes in AGW generally, but he’s pretty good at saying and showing that WEATHER IS NOT CLIMATE! He’s also a honest enough and smart enough to see the decline in basic science and computational literacy our K-12 public schools are causing, and is fighting it tooth and nail (it’s cost him some radio gigs and gotten him yelled at for not being completely on the left-wing train). He sees it’s the curricula and policy not racism that is the problem. He is a serious weather guy.
He’s also updated the forecast. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/an-historical-heat-wave-with-record.html
Cliff Mass looks like a typical global warming alarmist to me – just another climate fraudster.
I published my above comment (url below) on Cliff’s blog. I even deleted the word “lying”.
What are the odds it will pass moderation?
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/an-historical-heat-wave-with-record.html
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/23/the-greatest-heat-wave-in-us-northwest-history/#comment-3276531
Mass’s report here, citing the predictions, seems pretty straight-forward. It should be interesting to see what happens this weekend.
Judging from the 100 degree + spells and half-dozen or so wild fires we’ve got going around Denver I wouldn’t want to be in black-out prone northern Central Valley of California in the next few months.
“Only around 90F near Seattle.”
Seattle Radio and TV stations have been telling us possible triple digits in the Seattle area. I’ll believe it when it happens.
I live in Pierce County, WA; the county south of King (Seattle is in King) and my county has Tacoma in it. I’m around 13km (8mi) inland from Tacoma. The average for this time of year is 71 F (20 C) and partially cloudy at 55% humidity with a standard deviation of 9 F (5 C). We are expecting 100 F (38 C) on Saturday, 106 F (43 C) on Sunday, and 109 F (46 C) on Monday. Essentially, this is a 1 day per 12,700 June months event (if the climate held a constant mean around 71 F), or a 1 day in 1,000 years event. Mind you, only around a third of people here have air conditioning units, and the humidity will remain around 50%. People will die in the next three days; let’s hope it’s not many.
I’m sourcing this from my local AccuWeather.
this is an extreme event; not climate-altering.
A problem with such early high heat is wildfires. Last year Oregon was slammed with intense fire and smoke covered the entire west coast. I live north if San Francisco and we had intense heat for Marin at approximately 110 F for a couple of days. We had plenty of intense fire in CA but Oregon had it worst where the PM count was unbearable. They don’t have as many resources to fight fires – also we had a very dry year 50% of rainfall but they had much more so with this flash heat and present dryness they may get bigger fires. Any case hope for cool and moist weather for the west coast.
All this talk about city temperatures is bull. Look at state temperatures and you will find that record highs go to the 50’s, 30’s, some to the 1880’s. From this perspective current temperatures appear normal.
All this talk about the highest temperature at some location or locations is horsecrap. Too many variables for example: a newly widened highway, a new building or a large parking lot. What is relevant is state high temperatures. Most state hign temperatures were recorded more than 50 years ago, a lot in the 50’s several in the 1880’s. These local temperatures were used as an excuse for non-existent climate change