Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
The meteorological community is all abuzz about the forecast this weekend: several of the global models are predicting an extraordinarily unusual heatwave this weekend in the Pacific Northwest.
A heatwave so extreme that many locations might experience their warmest temperature on record.
For any day. For any year. And doing so in late June, which is not the usual time for the great temperature records.
Waves are the reason for this heatwave
But there is something else…there is great uncertainty in this forecast and what happens will depend on weather events over the western Pacific during the next few days.
Let me show you… the forecasts are simply insane.
To start, here are the forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday based on the excellent European Center model. As high as 121F in the northern Central Valley of California, 113 and 115 in the Columbia Basin, and 104-105 in the Willamette Valley. Only around 90F near Seattle.
Monday afternoon, Portland is predicted to get to 109F, and 121F is forecast near the Oregon/WA border.
The U.S. model the GFS is also going for extraordinary warmth in the region. A “plume” forecast plot for Seattle is shown below with the high-resolution prediction (blue line) and an ensemble of many lower-resolution simulations indicated.
For Monday, the high-resolution run gets to 111F in SEATTLE (the highest on record is 103F); it appears to be an outlier: most of the ensemble forecasts (gray lines) are cooler, with their mean (black line} only reaching 90F.
The UW high-resolution forecast system is going for 110F in Seattle and 120F in Portland (see below). Simply mind-boggling
This is so nuts I can’t believe it.
The origin of this potential heatwave is a huge, high amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft (see the forecast for 11 AM Sunday. It would represent the strongest ridge in history for our region.
What is the origin of this ridge? It appears to be forced by a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific that moves northward until it interacts with the jet stream, resulting in a series of downstream waves. Sort of like deflecting a long rope and having all kinds of waves propagating away.
The forecast of upper-level flow (around 30,000 ft) over the Pacific shows the waviness developing (see below). Think of the lines as pressure and the shading telling you how unusual the winds are. Wind barbs are also indicated.
On Tuesday morning, the jet stream is relatively straight over the western Pacific and a weak disturbance is moving northward (indicated by an arrow)
By June 24th, the jet stream has started to buckle, with major waviness over the north Pacific.
And by the 26th, the wave has amplified into a huge ridge over our region
But here is the thing. These kinds of interactions between a tropical disturbance and the jet stream are very finicky. Slight changes in the amplitude of the disturbance and where it hits the jet stream can result in major changes in the creation and motion of the jet stream waves.
This produces a great deal of uncertainty. By Wednesday, it all should settle down and we should have more confidence in the forecast.
My own evaluation from looking at a wide range of forecast guidance is that Seattle northwards will escape the worst of this, with temperatures only rising into the mid-90s, but Portland, the Willamette Valley, and the Columbia Basin will experience historical, extraordinary high temperatures.
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Temperatures all in F, I am not doing a conversion. I have no idea how much hotter 121F is over 109F,
109F in Portland? I forecast thunder storms and rioting, not necessarily in that order
tonyb
It’s great to have these extremist predictions documented on WUWT. Very important to make sure that the actual outcome is recorded and discussed. When this doesn’t remotely come to pass, will there be anybody asking why we’re getting exaggerated predictions?
While it is always possible to get unusual weather, it seems to be a pretty common event lately that the propaganda organs push out wild claims of unprecedented heat that end up being more like a UK heatwave in the upper teens. Nobody calls them on it, and the repetition of the predictions train people to imagine that we had an unusually hot month.
We’re a few days past the summer solstice folks. It’s supposed to be hot. But 49C in Portland Oregon? No, I’m going to go way out on a limb and preemptively call Barbara Streisand on that one.
I live in Portland. I’ll let you know.
Please do.
Three days out, weather.com already has Portland dialed back to a high of 111F/44C on Sunday. Still highly unlikely if you ask me.
It is 12 degrees F hotter.
Thanks for the laugh. Or you could say 6.666666667 C hotter.
A quick conversion is to subtract 30, then divide by 2. (While not entirely accurate, it is close enough for typical temperate temperatures). To convert C to F, double then add 30. (Spot on for 10C, less accurate the further the temperature is from this value (50F)).
Should be C x 1.8 + 32 = F
-40c x 1.8 = -72 + 32 = -40f
40 below C and 40 below F are the same
10c x 1.8 = 18 + 32 = 50f
20c x 1.8 = 36 + 32 = 68f
100c x 1.8 = 180 + 32 = 212f
7c
Search: f to c
121 F = 49.44444 C
109 F = 42.7778 C
Search: F to K
121 = 322.5944 K
109 = 315.9278 K
Highest Air temp ever recorded:
134.1 °F = 329.8722 K
134.1 = 56.722222 C
“The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.” – wiki
To each his own. I find temperatures in C give me no clue how warm or cold it feels. I can understand what a 10F temperature change means but not 10C. C is good for measuring when water boils but ~70 years of Fahrenheit indoctrination is permanent.
Given the computational capabilities of the world now forcing the switch to a more scientific measurement basis is meaningless. The holier than thou enforcement of the metric system seems a waste of effort now. Just use you C to F or F to C button.
Blasphemy to everyone outside the US, unapologetic.
We just prefer to use a system that wasn’t designed by drunk mathematicians with wonky dice. Even the creators of the imperial measurements, the UK, have given it up as a bad deal.
So, I’m a big fan of Celsius but on the other hand, Fahrenheit isn’t completely crazy. For the most part, in my part of the world, it spans the range of ordinary seasonal temperatures from 0 to 100. If you see a negative number or three digits, you know things are out of the ordinary. Also body temp is a bit under 100.
Why I prefer Celsius is that negative numbers indicate freezing, and thereafter it’s easy to think of 10 is cool, 20 is room temperature, 30 is warm, 40 is hot, 50 is ridiculous. It’s interesting enough that 100 is boiling water, but not particularly useful in a weather report.
The trick for the Fahrenheit-indoctrinated is to stop converting. Just evaluate against those standards.
But, subjectively, it isn’t really alarmingly cold until the moisture on the hairs in your nostrils freeze with your first breath outdoors. That happens at about -20 deg F.
It happens in my part of the world at -15 (C), and that’s a warm winter day*
but we are used to having a few days per winter at -40 (F). ha!
I can confirm +30C is hot, and at +35C most Italians and Spanish shut up shop for the afternoon.
*In Russia +35C is quite normal for summer time, and -35C quite normal for winter.
In cities full of tarmac and concrete, 35C is unbearable, while in far off Nice/Cannes, it’s quite OK thanks to a sea breeze.
There are two kinds of countries…
…those that use the metric system… and those that have put a man on the moon.
lol
You think there’s a causal relationship there?
Truth is we’re so great that we voluntarily burden ourselves with unwieldy measurement systems, just to make it fair to the lesser countries!
Metric is for morons that can’t handle fractions or anything more complicated than 2+2.
What’s half of 7/8? Metrics boys implode.
AF or Whitworth..?
2 + 2 is apparently Raycis, so we must all now use adjustable spanners (or Monkey Wrenches in Fahrenheit)
Imperial is much more easy to divide by various numbers.
I work for a global company so I have to use both. I find that the standard system that I grew up with is completely irrational. You start with the inch, which is divided into quarters, eighths, sixteenths, so on. Then you have the foot, which is divided into 12 instead of 8. Next is the yard, which is divided into 3. The next increment is the mile! 5,280 feet for some reason. To measure things between a yard and a mile we use terms like “a football field”, a “boxcar”, or “a stone’s throw”. Then you have to try converting any of these into the decimal system. What is half a stone’s throw in decimals?
My favorite units for density would be stones per cubic furlong, although grains per gill is also appealing.
“C is good for measuring when water boils…”
Accept water does not boil at 100C where I live. It boils at about 97C. If I went higher into the mountains the boiling point drops even further.
What good is a measurement system if one of the things that defines it isn’t fixed?
How relevant? I suppose you also imagine that body temperature is precisely 98.6? Of course that’s just an overly-precise conversion of a rough estimate 37C.
How does your complaint not apply equally to Fahrenheit?
“Accept water does not boil at 100C where I live.”
Why should I accept that? Oh, you meant “except”?
I have no idea how much hotter 121F is over 109F,
12 deg F
Subjectively, 109 is tolerable. I have discovered that when driving in a car without A/C, keeping the windows down seems to help until it gets to about 110 deg F. After that, it feels better to roll the windows up.
Think of the human body temp, 100 F is about 38 C, anything over that is a fever.
In the meantime it is relatively cold over Colorado/Wyoming in points east and even over the SE US. Where it is hot in one place it will be cold in another, and if someone hasn’t noticed, it is the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. It actually does get hot this time of year.
Cheyenne WY (June 25th: Forecast high: 63F Avg High: 79F -16F)
Portland OR (June 25th: Forecast high: 95F Avg High: 75F +20F)
Seems to me I was just reading about record cold in Antarctica – cold enough to freeze CO2.
Yeah in the southeast this summer has been tremendously cool. Hell its been a little cold from my perspective at night.
A high of 76 today in the Washington DC area. Very much on the low side.
A high of 75 in Virginia Beach, a little south of you. A/C is off & the windows are wide open letting in a cool Seabreeze. Loving it!
Currently my “Smart”phone is registering 67 degrees at 11:15 AM. The “Normal” should be in the 90’s this date and time. The weather man will be telling the audience come dinner time that the temperature was “below average” for the day. The Washington Post won’t write about anything unusual with the temps until the WEATHER shifts and they can say “it is unseasonably hot and it is due to man made climate change.”.
I read a headline saying we may break a 120 year old record!! Hey wait, it was that hot back then. So much for man made climate change.
Its 63 degrees f in Central NJ at 9:00 pm
The summer solstice is not the hottest time in the northern hemisphere. There’s a lag of several months.
You mean several weeks.
Here in Ottawa Canada, the temp April to end of June has been 7 to 10C below average
(-13F to -18F). The west end of Ottawa had a frost in late May and in the city lows still go down single digits °C (~45F). This is our year without a summer.
Felix, you are generally correct, but this year there is no serious heat going into the ground in most of Canada and much of the US. (Our city tap water is nice and cold to drink). Here after August 20th there tends to be a noticeable step down in temperatures. I’m forecasting a cool fall and bitter cold winter this year for us.
Not on average, but it’s common to get some very hot days in late June and early July at latitudes above 44N since the sun is right over the top.
same in New England
Flaming June
I’ve been living in the Pacific Northwest for 20 years. Sometimes July 4th is hot and sunny, but most of the time it’s about 60f and drizzly, which isn’t typical for a PNW summer.
Where i live, in the Mid-Atlantic, the summer solstice is “Normally: in the 90’s. We have had an extremely pleasant spring with comparatively low humidity, again unusual since it is typically in the high 80s/90s with high humidity. While July and early August can surpass 100 degrees, for the most part it hovers in the high 90s. Currently it is noon with a temperature outside my door of 68 degrees with an very pleasant 43% humidity. It has been a while since I can remember such a mild and pleasant spring here in the Mid-Atlantic but seasonal weather patterns seem to be affected by the Solar cycle more so than CO2 from fossil fuel consumption. Lets touch base again in late September to see how “dangerously” this Global Warming beats us down.
When the deep state creates a narrative of ever hotter irreversible global warming it really needs to be getting hotter, irreversibly on a global scale. Their hobgoblin skirt is showing.
Bone-dry air extending from the Arctic all the way down into the mid-Atlantic states.
About a month.
But bone dry air carries less energy. CGW is based on more energy in the atmosphere? Not???
The hottest time of the year varies for locations based on humidity. In the AZ desert with low humidity, the hottest temps are typically late June. In the southeast US the sun has to heat the water vapor first so the hottest temps are in August
In large part, that’s because in early July the Mexican monsoon rolls in and the clouds keep the temperature down.
Mr. Felix: Mr. Babcock said “hot” not “hottest”.
It depends on your latitude in the northern hemisphere, but the hottest week is generally around mid-July for most people living there.
I’m reminded every year by our local newspaper that it’s going to be hot this summer. Each year there’s a headline on the front page telling us to prepare for hot weather. Go figure.
My cable company has gotten into the habit, probably thanks to Federal Bureaucrats and our overpaid Lawyers, of breaking into my Television viewing to “Warn” me of our thrice weekly evening thunderstorms as if they are protecting me. Of course those paying attention know that it is nothing more than subliminally implanting fear into our amygdala. One is to be left with the impression that Climate Change has made everything worse when in fact it is bureaucratic use of technology that has made things worse.
It’s all part of the nanny-state culture. We’re to be scared of everything/anything & hoping for the goobermint/our betters to save us.
i call it the matriarchy. Thats how much things have changed. emotion over logic
Easy solution, stop watching television.
We would be much better off without any Social Justice Networks. The best network (for weather too) is the back fence or on a barstool.
They’re too stupid to write about anything else.
Public service announcements. Thank god we have these good Samaritans. Without them I would forget and keep wearing my wooly undergarments.
Strange though how they forget to warn us about winter.
Here on the 45th parallel, shortest night of the year, we had frost. Even by Lake Michigan and Grand Traverse Bay it in dropped into the upper 30’s. Cool yesterday and today, and with repeated waves of showers coming in over the next week. Had to kick the furnace on for a couple minutes the last few mornings just to clear out the chill, but that should help in the long run since in 10 years it should be a good 0.3F warmer.
Down here in the sunny south (US), I had to put on a long sleeve shirt when going for my morning jog. Almost 15F cooler than average for this time of year.
First day of summer, here in the Denver area, I was wearing a sweatshirt all day. In the 40 years of living here I don’t remember doing that ever.
When the headlines start appearing, remember that in today’s usage, “unprecedented” can be defined as any event that has not previously occurred in at least 48 hours.
… 47, 46, 45…
The current forecasted temperatures (107F) occured 40 years ago in August. Even if the all time record falls so what? over the last 50 years PDX winters have gotten a tiny bit colder and wetter, and the summers a tiny bit hotter and drier, it all balances out.
Please send us some of the hot air to Dublin, Ireland. We are in the middle of summer but with temperatures below average for months and the heatwave promised by our Met Eireann weeks overdue the growth of our vegetables are badly stunted.
” … our vegetables are badly stunted”.
This, Michael, is exactly what Dr. Valentina Zharkova has been pounding upon the table as what to expect over the next 20 years as the imminent Grand Solar Minimum continues to manifest.
Indeed, the increasing waviness of the jet stream – the cause of the extreme heat/cold noted in both the article (in the northwest) and throughout much of the rest of the US as several commentators have pointed out – is thought to be a consequence of the diminishing solar magnetic field reaching the earth.
We are way, WAY past the time to continue to give credence to these AGW idiots are start to focus on the demonstrable effects of the sun.
And all of Big Media will tell us this proves CO2 causes Climate Change when it is just weather and a comparison to a relatively brief written temperature record.
OT a bit but the ads on WUWT are just full of Hillary Clinton’s face, Bill’s, Joel Osteen, very annoying, anyone else getting the same ads?
No.
IIRC, WUWT uses Google ads. The ads you see depend upon tracking data. it is customized to whatever the Google algorithm “thinks” you might like to see.
Try clearing your browser cookies. I always block third-party cookies, BTW
“anyone else getting the same ads?”
No, but I use Adblock+ & Ghost, haven’t seen an advert in 3 yrs; trackers, keyloggers & phishing sites are also stopped.
Darn, I’m only seeing the best posters of scantily clad Charlie’s Angels (Farrah Fawcett, etc.) and Linda Ronstadt from their heydays.
Poor you! Think of the “tremendous savings” you’re missing.
Do not happen to be
X rated ones by any chance?
Just asking.
Many ppl may just happen to be very interested… if that the case
🤓
For some reason I seem to get a lot of ads for women’s swim fashions
Me too, up to some point… very tempting!
What do you think we both may be doing wrong… or right… there!
still got to do this, the simple apology to the wify;
love you for ever, please pardon my immaturity…
Still love you…. fingers crossed that you may just believe it …
😛
It is a consequence of your surfing history haha
I had to use my furnace this morning just north of Detroit, MI. too cold.
John:
I’m in the ridge just east of Sleeping Bear, about 450-500 ft higher than Lake Michigan and we had light frost, shortest night of year
The pressure is on; but, can it be sustained for 30 years to set a climate record? To date, it has changed with the daily solar flux, reaching temperatures of 100 one day, and 70 the next.
It is the increasing waviness of the jet stream that is causing these extreme, fluctuating weather patterns.
If, indeed, it is the lessening of the sun’s magnetic waves that is causing this, it will be another 20 years of these types of weather events.
Wow – I just said almost the same thing just now, then saw your reply after I posted it!
Don’t you think the meander will lessen a bit for the next 5 or so years as the sun’s activity increases again (before descending into a deeper low)?
My understanding is that, as we’re just emerging from a solar minimum, the still cooler upper atmosphere compresses and therefore distorts the jet streams so that they meander – forcing hot weather from equatorial regeons to one side of a continent, and polar conditions to the other.
And for a bit of CACC promotion, why not play with a weather machine to spice it up a bit?
In the meantime I’m freezing my butt off on the Oregon coast. Brrr…
Sorry Charlie but there is No relief in sight for you. The heat is supposed to stay east of the Coast Range.
In future years, if someone asks if we remember the summer of 1993, the reply will be; “Remember it well. It was the afternoon of Sunday, July 18!”
Two southern Californians, volunteer Campground Hosts, US Forest Service Diamond Lake campground that year. Oregon Cascade mountains, 5,200 feet elevation.
It’s all weather, and records, high and low, are made to be broken.
At the moment, in an RV park just north of Parker, Arizona. It’s 10PM and I just turned the A/C off.
I hate the use of superlatives with caveats.
I once read a description that read like, ‘the longest bridge, in the state of new york, built before 1940, using this technology’. details may be off, but who cares, with all those exceptions it surely wasn’t the longest bridge.
that is worse than having 1000 year floods every ten years.
even if true, there are enough restrictions in the claim that it should automatically generate a chorus of ‘so what’ responses.
Why are we talking about weather on a climate site? Oh, because that is what alarmists do.
Sci site.
I appreciate the quick lesson in meteorology, Cliff. Any U.S. place can reach highest summer temperatures in any month between May and September. The highest temperatures I recall as a youth in the high plains occurred during June — some of the coldest occurred during June too.
Try laying in a rice paddy on a nighttime ambush during the Southeast Asia monsoon to perceive real cold conditions.
Kachelmann predicts
Temps in °C
It doesn’t matter whether this heat wave happens or not. A record temperature record will happen in some parking lot. But more importantly after a week of hyping on every news outlet around the world for 80% of the population 2021 will be the year of worst heatwave in Californian history
Having a lot of variability here in Colorado Springs. 2 – 4 days of highs in the low/mid 90s, then a few days with highs in the 60s/70s. The big thing I like is that we are getting periods of rain this year, and last winter, we had ample snow. When I had our house built in 2001, we were in an extreme drought. Luckily, I didn’t start putting in grass until 2003. During the winter of 2001/2002, we had no snow at all. We did have a mud storm though. And in the summer of 2002, we had almost no rain. Hopefully we won’t have any severe hail storms this year. BTW, western Colorado is not doing so well.
And yet the global temperature is down considerably from its high. Reading the papers, you would think that the temperatures in Portland are representative of world temperatures.
Just another attempt by the journalists to get their names attached to a headline. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not.
It’s become a distinct trend in the last few years -predicting “unprecedented” high temperatures in advance.
This allows the message to be emplaced solidly in the public mind, in case it doesn’t actually happen as predicted. The message reinforces the story line (“unprecedented heat – anthropogenic – climate crisis – tipping point – etc. etc.”) that needs constant refreshing.
We’re also starting to see “news” telling us (a) 2021 is the hottest year ever (even though we’re not half way through it) and (b) permanent drought is here to stay this time (again?)
weather alert. ok it will be below normal for the majority of the country….
PG&E has scolded me to NOT run my air conditioner and to only use “off peak” electricity (when I don’t need it).
I thought PG&E’s mission was to PROVIDE energy to the people of N.CA? Why is my monopolistic Energy Corp. telling me I can’t have energy? How about PG&E shut the hell up and build more power plants so they can provide CHEAP … PLENTIFUL energy!?
Yes. Of course I know why they don’t
PG&E is a regulated utility and will, therefore, do exactly what the politicians and Deep State operatives tell it; nothing more, nothing less. Been there, done that, got the cheap jacket.
“… on record…”
Hmm. Overnight low here in the US mid-Appalachians last night was 43F. (6C) Near record cold for the date & have had similar cold several times recently.
Heat wave, huh? Over the Midwest? Not particularly unusual. We just had some rain in my AO, and there is plenty more down in the dornfields far to the south of me. so the corn may grow like Topsy and have a higher-than-usual sugar content, which provides MORE high fructose corn syrup for the food products industry. Wheat may grow like Topsy, too.
We’ve had it too chill up here in my AO, and grasses in the forest preserves are a bit behind their normal height and volume BECAUSE IT’S BEEN CHILLY, WILLY!!!!!
Is it too much to ask there people who publish these prognostications to spend some time in the REAL world, instead of at a desk with a computer on it?
Geezo Pete, what my Aunt Vash might say about this stuff. She lived on a farm in what is politely called Niobrara river bottom farmland. Every summer, the corn there was so tall and thick she said her kids could camp out there and catch fireflies all night, and they never went hungry.
Hot weather? BRING IT!!!!!
It isn’t the forecasters who are trying to get people prepared who are the problems, it is the idiots who use unusual weather to further their political agenda, usually meaning less freedom for the rest of us.
But will it make any difference to the long term global average? As far as that is concerned, we are still in a long term Pause of any averaged global increase since the 2015/16 El Nino step. Records are made to be broken, and we haven’t even been keeping accurate track for a 100 years or less, if accuracy is to be believed. So it gets hot in a small location in North America, all the while it is below normal somewhere else, usually on the other side of the continent if the jet stream is ‘wavy’. So what…I have been noticing that for 50 years.
Unusually warm here on the 49th parallel, it usually rains in the last week of June when all the kids have their end of year sports days. No sports days this year due to Covid so it didn’t rain. Did anyone else notice the little lizard face at5N 160E in the last map or is it just my overactive imagination?
As a teenager in southeastern Washington State, I remember temperatures around 115 F during the first week of August in 1961.