Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Professor Markus Rex, we have finally crossed the line – though years of well funded research are required to confirm that we have messed up the planet.
Scientists fear global warming has already passed an irreversible ‘tipping point’
The scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warned global warming may have already passed an irreversible tipping point.
The tipping point for irreversible global warming may have already been triggered, the scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warned.
“The disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic is one of the first landmines in this minefield, one of the tipping points that we set off first when we push warming too far,” said Professor Markus Rex.
“And one can essentially ask if we haven’t already stepped on this mine and already set off the beginning of the explosion.”
Professor Rex led the world’s biggest mission to the North Pole, an expedition involving 300 scientists from 20 countries.
…
“Only evaluation in the coming years will allow us to determine if we can still save the year-round Arctic sea ice through forceful climate protection or whether we have already passed this important tipping point in the climate system,” Professor Rex added, urging rapid action to halt warming.
…
Stefanie Arndt, who specialises in sea ice physics, said it was “painful to know that we are possibly the last generation who can experience an Arctic which still has a sea ice cover in the summer”.
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Read more: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scientists-fear-global-warming-has-already-passed-an-irreversible-tipping-point
I’ve experienced arctic ice, I once spent a few days in Bodø. It was cold. The Maelstrom at Saltstraumen was pretty, and the snow capped mountains were glorious. Lots of pretty Scandinavians. There were some odd things for sale in the shops. One of the towns in Bodø municipality would make a great place for a party, if the ice actually melts away, and if you are someone who doesn’t mind if things get a bit weird. But lets just say I’m not exactly rushing to book my ticket.
“The disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic is one of the first landmines in this minefield, one of the tipping points that we set off first when we push warming too far,” said Professor Markus Rex.
Yawn! I’m gonna go take a nap.
Regards,
Bob
This article would be more believable if the summer ice had actually disappeared.
Just wait until Guam capsizes, you’ll see.
Now THAT’s a tipping point!
(Do you reckon ol’ Hank Johnson knows what a LEGEND he is when it comes to tipping points? I’m surprised that Joe Biden hasn’t created a Special Commission for Tipping Points, and installed ol’ Hank as the poobah. Or should that be – the Czar?)
Or should that be – the Czar?
You DO remember what happened to the last Czar??
The marxists/eco-loons are all for ezlectric-czars.
Wait, wait! Guam capsized? I thought we had funded floats for it!
Everything is relative.
Guam tips over once a day, and there is no damage.
Yes, a handmade tale.
How can a so called scientist not understand the meaning of disappeared?
Anyone who knows him, hold his hand and show him how to get to the NSIDC Arctic Ice page:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
It’s really pretty colors and you could also buy him some crayons and have him redraw the data and have his kindergarten teacher grade him on it. Don’t let him click on Antarctica though. He may have the brain of a five-year old, but his heart might have more mileage on it.
Data? That’s like so 20th century. We have models that say otherwise, and as every warmunist knows: Models > Data.
This new breed of scientist that doesn’t get bogged down in silly details such as how much ice is actually in the arctic.
It has disappeared, the UK Wet Office said so back in 2014!!!
How many years have they been predicting the arctic ice death spiral was about to start?
I seem to recall Climate Scientologist Jettin’ Al Gore saying 2013, all over Red Rover!
MarkW: But this time, he SAW the tipping point! I read he spent a year in the arctic, where his cell signal was crap. Upon his return, he got a signal, was able to view the latest ice models, and THAT’S where he saw the tipping point.
Well, I don’t actually know about the cell signal part. But he spent a year around ice and all he saw was a tipping point.
If he tried to use a cell phone out of reach of any tower, all he got was a flat battery. Seems those fancy hand-warmers go into a continuous search mode till they find a tower signal – four to five hours at the most – flat battery.
About a dozen of us visited Swansea, Arizona a couple of years ago. Two of the party didn’t get the message to turn off all phones. Yup, dead batteries. A remote location – very.
https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/arizona/az-abandoned-town-swansea/
This truck driver knows there are “remote locations “, both big and small, all over. Doesn’t matter what service you have, your going to lose service at times. Along certain interstates and other roads I know exactly where I will lose service and where I’ll get it back.
On the milk run I’m doing this week there is a stretch of about 40 miles on US 50 through SW Indiana where service breaks are so frequent when driving it’s not worth trying.
G’day Rah,
US 50 – America’s Loneliest Road. Travelled from Ely to Austin back in the 1980’s. Lonely? Every time I pulled over for a pit-stop – here came another vehicle.
A four cylinder Toyota pick-up and a 19 foot travel trailer. Had just committed to the last uphill before Austin – looked in the mirror. A triple tanker. Called on the CB, “Any place I can pull over and let you by?” “The next wide spot is the brake-check area at the top, I’m stopping there anyway.” We chatted all the way up – at 28 mph.
Today – a 27 foot trailer and an F 350 with Banks turbo. Not often that I hold up someone out there making a living.
Memories – need to do a search and look for “Me and Ole CB” – haven’t heard it in years. (It’s available!)
The Earth ‘s very stable climate does not do “tipping points”. The Clime Syndicate even stopped using this quaint term because of the fun sceptics have had with a snow and ice locked UK following Viner’s gem about children not knowing what snow is, Wadhams had the permanent “Wacky” added to his name over 2-3 year projections he made on an ice-free Arctic, and Gore, well he was a comic figure to start with (and some think the term itself was inspired by his former wife’s name Tipper).
To be a proper barrier to movement minefields need to be covered by the side that created them.
If you don’t the enemy just lifts your mines and then, in many situations, re-uses those mines against you. There is a reason specialised mine clearing tanks were developed – because Sappers on foot tended to get shelled or machine gunned.
Mine fields don’t need to be fully swept. You can sweap/clear a path through the field, pass through and then operate with a higher degree of movement freedom on the far side. Yes there are then MAJOR ethics about not going back and completely clearing the area once the conflict is over, but the point is mines are an problem that can be worked around.
(rolls eyes)
If you are going to start using metaphor at least understand the subject.
Eric, if we have already passed the tipping point we might as well party! I’ll jump in my SUV and drive around the neighborhood a few times.
They’ll do anything to distract from a cold North Hemisphere winter.
I suspect the professors will get a social media slap for spreading “doomerism”.
One important step to avoid climate collapse would be to cease all CO2 emissions from sciency things, like an expedition of 300 people to the Arctic, which is definitely something that would impact tremendously the local environment.
Another thing, as the tipping point was already crossed, we can scale back climate research (after all, if we are doomed, let’s not worry about these things, and spend some money on having fun, right), and eliminate this superflous spending. If we can cancel the pension of these sycophants too, that would be a big morale boost to everyone, as they will really show they care.
Yeah, their tire tracks and footprints are changing the albedo and melting all the ice. I do like ice, but in my drink, not on the roads or covering the landscape.
Better still, provide these polar expeditions with rowing boats – zero emissions – to get themselves to their destinations.
I’m guessing, Eric, that the picture of the 5 penguins, in a story about the arctic, are from the archive because the polar bears ate them all some time ago.
So, if polar bears ate all the penguins in the arctic, why didn’t the polar bears move to the Antarctic so they could have more penguins? :))
Polar bear are very good swimmer, but that distance is a bit to long, and the question is, did they pay attention in Geography / Biology at school 😀
Then it wouldn’t be the Antarctic – which means No Bears,
A prerogative of white bear privilege is to feed on seals and walruses. Think of the pups!
Don’t you mean cubs, not pups? Geez, get your pronouns right.
Seals are sea dogs, therefore their babies are pups.
Apparently they can’t swim and won’t survive without the arctic ice.
But the Antarctic has ice, can’t they survive with Antarctic ice?
The bipolar ones did, maybe. Do not judge.
That’s either a very good question, or the start of a really good joke!!! 😉
Actually there used to be penguins in the arctic, but it were not the polar bears that made them go extinct.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_auk
I understand the snark about the penguins, but I don’t see that photo in the original article. Who supplied it?
It is an old meme here on any arctic article going back since that photo was originally published. It pokes fun at the idiocy of showing penguins resting on an ice chunk as some sort of post-apocalyptic warning, when penguins have taken a break on any floating ice since the beginning of time.
I love the photograph of Emperor Penguins.
Some people would krill to look that good.
I, an innocent bystander, feel planked on.
Don’t whale on the subject.
Putting down my pen, guin’ drinkin’
The loss of Arctic sea ice is only a tipping point if the result is a positive temperature feedback.
This simpleton version of the science is: sea ice has a higher albedo than open water, therefore warming.
This is of course the opposite of what the data shows. The years with the biggest ice melts (and the most open water) are the years that have the biggest subsequent ice formation seasons.
Speculating– As albedo considers only reflected energy and not radiated heat loss, could it be that “open water” summer seasons enter the winter with lower water temperatures than “ice-covered” seasons?
Yes, that is the most common interpretation for the observed phenomenon.
Ice cover is an insulator to the water. Letting the hot water (35F) radiate out to space (-455F) cools the ocean and therefore the Arctic.
Loss of Arctic ice cover appears to be a NEGATIVE temperature feedback.
I don’t believe this is a certainty, but it appears pretty darn likely!
I know he’s wrong through one simple fact… If this old Earth had any “tipping points”, they would have tipped a long time ago and Life-As-We-Know-It™ wouldn’t exist anyway, so we wouldn’t be here to argue about it. We are so it hasn’t and it won’t.
An excellent common sense point. Shame I can only give you one up vote.
Apparently this is the last and final tipping point. No more curtain calls for this old earth.
Open water may have a lower albedo than sea ice..
But at the angle the sun hits it in winter, it’s not going to even matter.
The sea ice helps store heat energy in the warmer ocean.
When you lose the sea ice, the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere.
Like when you take your beanie off in cold weather, your head loses heat to its surroundings.
So why they think losing the sea ice cover is going to suddenly make the arctic gain heat.. I don’t know.
Were they all Gorebal warming ‘Fanny Kissers’ group, or were there some TRUE scientist?
That Al Gore Rhythm has me in its grip;
That Al Gore Rhythm that wore out old Tip;
Those icy warm-mong’rers straight out of ‘Lost’;;
Those Rachel Carsons of the Permafrost …
Billy Daniels would have enjoyed the altered lines.
“Climate science” is well beyond the tipping point of bullshit. Just see how badly they messed up the “greenhouse effect”, and what a little bit of forensic analysis reveals..
https://greenhousedefect.com/basic-greenhouse-defects/the-beast-under-the-bed-part-2
You really need to quit beating that dead horse. You choose to misunderstand the actual science. Your speculations are not actual science. Dicking around with made-up numbers is not real science.
Sorry, but I am only starting to take on the fake science you love so much 😉
Dave Fair
I am delighted to hear your admission that dicking around with made up numbers is not real Science, because most of the underlying numbers on Climate Change. is dicking around with made up numbers. We can quit wasting money on windmills and solar panels and subsidies for electric cars, and fire over 500,000 bureaucrats currently dicking around with this stuff.
That we are dicking around with made up numbers is indisputable. Mann has yet to share his data for the hockey stick. Jones does not want to share his data because real scientists just want to find something wrong with it. The paleo reconstructions have error bars so big as to make the numbers useless. We have taken data that was supposedly measured and adjusted it. We have huge amounts of data that is inferred from the actual measurements in order to fill out the grids in the computer models. We have almost zero measurements from Africa, yet still pretend to know the temperature of the earth.
We have sea temperature data taken from just a few places in the ocean. The older data is water pulled up by a bucket from a place that cannot be accurately identified. A thermometer is the placed in the bucket, without knowing how long the bucket sat there, nor was the thermometer calibrated to today’s standards. Next we took samples from the engine intakes, again very few samples compared to the size of the ocean. Now we have a handful of buoys floating around and make huge extrapolations from that about ocean temperatures. We put all of these inaccurate, extrapolated, adjusted figures into computers and pretend that we know the temperature of the planet through thousands of yeas within a tenth or sometimes a 1/00 of a degree.
We take all of that mess and make wildly inaccurate forecasts 50 years into the future, and pretend that they mean anything. Because each of the 100 or so forecasts has different assumptions, anomalies, algorithms etc, we average all of these inaccurate forecasts and tell ourselves that the average must be the right number. Reality produces numbers as time plods along, and out of over 100 forecasts, only one turns out to be close. Is that skill, or chance? We do not know.
So, yes, you are exactly correct. We are dicking around with made up numbers and pretending it’s Science. So let’s quit doing that and save Trillions in wasted money.
As Richard Feynman, one of the greatest true scientists of all time said,
“I would rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.”
+ 1 million thumbs up, Bill.
Okay, but what are “climate models” if not speculations ?
A discernment of heat, radiation, and temperature is in order. A review of attribution, conversion and transport efficacy would also serve to minimize the chaos forcing analytical defects.
If we’re done, we’re done, so let’s now shut up about it.
Terry how are they going to get paid?
Frazer: “We’re all doomed”
Jones: “Don’t panic”
One and the most disappointing tipping point been triggered is the complete idiocy of the statemants author.
Ja. And they were on the Polarstern. Unfortunately, the author mixed up two words, ‘warming’ and ‘warning’. So it should read:
Scientists fear global warning has already passed an irreversible ‘tipping point’
The scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warmed global warning may have already passed an irreversible tipping point.
The tipping point for irreversible global warning may have already been triggered, the scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warmed.
…and so on.
Eric,
I’m surprised that there was ice on the sea at Bodo. I have been many times to Narvik in the winter which is further north and never saw ice on the sea there, and In Murmansk in January the sea was ice free as well.
But taking the photo of the penguins must have been very expensive, given that transporting them to the Arctic must have cost a fortune.
Penguins in the Arctic? We MUST have passed a tipping point somewhere, or maybe a flipping point! sarc
They flew there on their own for a short holiday.
I miss the flying penguin logo that used to adorn the Non Sequitur cartoon series by Wiley Miller.
No sea ice, though there were still some patches of unthawed snow on the ground when we visited in May. I suspect sea ice in Bodø is rare, they’re famous for their maelstrom, so there are some pretty savage tidal sea currents in the area.
Sea Ice in Bodø is non existent, at least it is not connected with the ice further north. Greetings from Norway.
Oh, my…. Another “cow-tipping point” has been tipped…
“I love the smell of panic in the morning…. it reminds me of….victory…”
These poor Fascist “scientists” will soon be looking for other lines of work after the PDO and AMO ocean cycles reenter their respective 30-year cool cycles and global temps slowly fall, and Arctic Sea Ice Extents begin to slowly increase as they did from 1880~1913 and 1945~1978 during the last PDO/AMO cool cycles…
I hear the food service industry is desperately looking for new employees..
In other words, you want to ruin the food service industry with incompetent employees.
It’s better than them trying to enter the medical profession, at least I think so. The democrat-controlled cities have some pretty big homeless camps too to be shared. I’m sure they’re OK if you don’t mind rats.
Out of habit, the trainees would adjust the mayonnaise to get a trend.
Complete BS! What a joke. There is no way I can take the people seriously. Junk scientists.
The only tipping point professor Rex needs to worry about is when more people finally realize that this is all a scam.
The Arctic was supposed to be ice-free by 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018 or 2020. I wonder what date he is suggesting?
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/
Not “or” but “and”. 😀
” I wonder what date he is suggesting?”
The second Tuesday of next week.
He quite purposely did not provide a date. It’s just inevitable that someone time in the nebulous future, it’s gonna happen.
They’ve learned not to make actual predictions that can be proven wrong.
It’s just like all the other “tipping points”. The part that amazes me, they can run around proclaiming “We have less than 10 years to save the World!” for 8, 9, sometimes even 10 years or more, and never realize their own irony, and I guess never have a reporter question them on it!!!
That’s probably because said reporters are all “on message” &/or don’t have the ability to ask awkward questions!!!
Native Americans adapted. The evidence is in.
At underwater site, research team finds 9,000-year-old stone artifacts: Underwater archaeology team finds ancient obsidian flakes 2,000 miles from quarry — ScienceDaily
Dragon glass.. did in the white walkers
So, just how much Arctic ice was there 4-6Kya when the oceans were 2 meters deeper?
Woke and wobbly. They reached a viability tripping point three trimesters (i.e. 3 decades) ago.
That said, with the progress of polar bears and carnivorous appetites in service to unPlanned cubs, there is unprecedented risk to seal lives. Donate to World Walrus Foundation (WWF, not that one), a project between walruses, seals, and other victims of white bear privilege.
Think of the pups! Don’t let Planned Puphood progress in darkness. #HateLovesAbortion
Donations should be mandatory. I guess I mean there otter be a law.
This is good, with a tipping point passed, there is no longer any need to worry about CARBON CARBON CARBON.
I’ll predict that the statement was probably written in draft before the expedition started. They had plenty of time to fill in the details. While listing many first-time accomplishments in instrumentation and sampling, abd brought back “15 terabytes of data,” they compared their modern findings to those readings taken in an 1893-96 expedition.
from NSIDC
My first question, if faced with measurements taken 130 years apart, did the old measurements and the contemporary measurements even measure the same thing? What method was used to make that measurement 130 years ago? What do we get now if we use the exact same method? What was that? They didn’t record their method? We know not what instrument(s) they used? Time of day and/or season of the readings? Well, then how can you even compare the 2?
If they’d actually compared anything, there’d be no headline — Arctic sea ice has been greater and lesser many times since the 1890s. The first research operation to really reliably measure sea ice thickness was USS Nautilus (SSN-571) in 1958. Being as it was nuclear, military, and quite thourough and precise in compiling data, I don’t expect them to ever acknowledge that, and on past performance to hide that data if it is inconvenient.
The Fram expedition was first time data had been compiled. The scientists gathering data were as thorough and precise as allowed by the times and circumstances — but it was mercury thermometer and line-and-weight work, recorded in a handwritten log: just the kind of thing that is discarded or adjusted today if it shows data that doesn’t fit the narrative.
But via the magic of averaging, all of these issues just POOF! and disappear in a puff of greasy green smoke.
Great! Can we stop hearing about it now?
Why send 300 scientists from 20 countries when one competent one would be enough?
On the off chance that the cruise ship sinks.
Because you can’t find a competent “Climate Scientist”.
Ah, a misunderstanding of the way in which these papers are written. There was a team of 4 that actually did the research and wrote the paper, then 296 others were there to add their names to it before it could get published!
Stefanie Arndt, who specialises in sea ice physics, said it was “painful to know that we are possibly the last generation who can experience an Arctic which still has a sea ice cover in the summer”.
Poor Stefanie! I guess your sea ice physics superpowers won’t be needed anymore. At least now you’ll have time to properly raise your children.
may have already passed
may have already been triggered
And one can essentially ask
Only evaluation in the coming years
we are possibly
Don’t all these highly-qualified and eminent scientists KNOW, for goodness sake? Haven’t they heard: the science is settled.
The word “may” means exactly the same as “may not.” “Possibly” means the same as “possibly not.”
Future evaluation means “we will wait and see”
He has said essentially nothing which appears to be what is in the space between his ears.
First of all, *if* the sea ice all disappeared would that be a natural change or something we caused? They can’t even answer that question using science.
Secondly, I could care less if all the sea ice disappears – no change to sea level and fewer icebergs to take out ships.
Thirdly, what do they suppose happens to the sea ice when they use ice breakers to cut through it constantly to *study* it?
The arctic has lost 4 million square kilometers since February, currently 10.23 million square kilometer. Antarctic has gained over 10 million square km. Currently 13.47 million square km. Global sea ice is at 23 million square kilometers. Why focused on one pole where land heat contributes to melt. Noticed sea surface temperature normal are similar to Antarctic sea surface temperatures (ignoring environment differences). Antarctic sea has winds of an ice sheet (up to -30°), while arctic sea has winds off hot land (up to 30°C). Reason we see red sea surface anomalies.
Sea Ice extent is tracked on SunShineHours blog
https://sunshinehours.net/category/global-sea-ice-extent/
The Bowhead whales seem to like the Arctic this side of the tipping point. I thought whales were supposed to be intelligent do they not realise we and them are doomed.
Again?
Kinda loses its impact after the first 3 times
Woulda, shoulda, coulda! I which these “scientists” would get get some help for their phobias and neurosis. The constant raving of lunatics gets tiresome for the sane.
“may have” . . . .
“Stefanie Arndt, who specialises in sea ice physics, said it was “painful to know that we are possibly the last generation who can experience an Arctic which still has a sea ice cover in the summer”.
Well I, for one, will spend my life savings to experience Stefanie Arndt go swimming in the last bit of the Arctic Ocean with sea ice cover.
I never experienced Arctic sea ice cover, and I certainly never will, independent if there is ice or not. I swear to have no pain at all.
At first, like Stefanie, I was very concerned too.
But then I realized that I could just take my grand kids up there in the spring to experience the sea ice cover; and their lives would not be deficient and sad ….
Then I painfully realized that I don’t have the resources to take the kids there anyway.
Then I realized that experiencing sea ice in the summer is pretty low on most kids lists, and even if I offered, they would have something better to do and wouldn’t want to go (so then some of the my pain dissipated)
Then I realized that if Stefanie really got her way, only the likes of Bill Gates and his friends would have the resources to go experience the arctic sea ice the summer.
Then I realized that Stefanie Arndt (who specializes in sea ice physics) is a selfish manipulative (& likely lying) piece of crap.
“The abundance of information will feed into the development of models”
Can’t wait…
Does he mean the tipping point where temperatures stop going higher (-:
https://neomvisions.com/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2021-0-08-deg-c/
Maybe he means the GREENING tipping point. We are greening the planet to death (-:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
the only greening is the greening of his institutional grant account.
The money statement from this rent seeker:
“Only evaluation in the coming years will allow us to determine if we can still save the year-round Arctic sea ice…”
This animated giff should be an embedded image in Professor Rex’s online paper:
Once a champ in Rex thingy, always a Rex champ… forevah… and evah.
No one evah has come back from ugly.
Call his bluff. If he’s certain that a ‘tipping point’ has been passed then there is no need for anymore grants and research. In fact all Climate Science has been settled for some time so what are they studying?
Was this one of the Arctic expeditions that was trapped in the ice and had to be rescued by an icebreaker?
Maybe we can now get about living, now that we know we are dying.
Wasn’t that the research they needed several extra ice breaker to free the ship and an ice breaker because of to much to thick ice ?
The thing that scares me is an Aussie saying things can get weird and party in the same sentence. That would be an 11 on my weird scale.
You didn’t see the shops. None of them looked like they were struggling for business.
“MAY”. nOT REALLY CERTAIN.
I guess when it really happens , “science” will know about. Until then, it’s just another ugly rumor.
“…may have already passed an irreversible tipping point.”
“MAY have”. Weasel word. He knows it’s BS.
Yes real science uses words like “may” or “indicates” or “suggests” because real science is never 100% certain. But this is intended to scare us that the end is nigh, and he doesn’t want his own words coming back to haunt him.
“we have finally crossed the line”.
Thank God for that, I thought we’d never get there.
This being the case can we now just carry on as we are then since it’s too late?
““painful to know that we are possibly the last generation who can experience an Arctic which still has a sea ice cover in the summer”.
Add this to the Viner, Wadhams, Gore collection. “When will they ever learn….
David Attenborough’s latest science fiction, “Breaking Boundaries”, is loaded with tipping points.
After speaking to her handlers, it turns out what she meant to say is: “Well, actually we probably haven’t yet reached the tipping point, we still have maybe 3…nah, let’s say 5 years to act. Send money.”
Climate averages for Barrow, Alaska:
Month Temp(max/min, F) Precip, in Snow, in
January -7/-19 0.13 3
February -8/-20 0.14 3
March -6/-19 0.09 2
April +8/-5 0.16 3
May 26/17 0.18 3
June 40/31 0.32 1
July 47/35 0.98 0
August 44/34 1.05 1
September 36/29 0.72 4
October 22/13 0.41 9
November 6/-5 0.21 6
December -2/-14 0.24 4
This is the northernmost point in the United States, on the shore of the Arctic Ocean.
Air temperatures remain below freezing from October through most of May, so that Arctic sea ice near Barrow will likely start to melt in June, after which total precipitation (water equivalent) skyrockets in July through September, as the open water promotes evaporation, formation of clouds, and rain or snow along the coast.
It should be noted that snowfall reaches a maximum in October, when temperatures are generally below freezing, but some of the coastal water has not yet re-frozen, where cold winds blowing across the open water can pick up moisture and drop it on nearby land as snow (similar to the lake-effect snow south and east of the Great Lakes in late November and December). In Barrow, once the Arctic re-freezes, there is less evaporation and less snowfall in winter than in autumn.
It should be noted that summer temperatures in Barrow don’t rise much above freezing, with a “sea breeze” off the Arctic limiting the temperature rise on sunny days. This does not occur in inland Fairbanks, Alaska (a few hundred miles to the south) where daily maximum temperatures are above 60 F in May through August, and above 70 F in June and July, despite much higher precipitation in Fairbanks than in Barrow.
So what would happen if the Arctic ice melted earlier in spring and/or froze later in autumn? The additional open water would result in higher evaporation and precipitation rates over a longer period during summer, and the period of high snowfall (due to open water) would be shifted later into the autumn. But the higher evaporation rates would also result in more cloud formation, which would limit any warming from the summer sun.
Yes, open water has a lower albedo than ice, but it tends to increase evaporation and cloud formation, and clouds have a higher albedo than open water under a sunny sky!
Wait just a minute . . . there are these quotes given in the article (my underlining emphasis added):
“The scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warned global warming may have already passed an irreversible tipping point.
The tipping point for irreversible global warming may have already been triggered, the scientist who led the biggest-ever expedition to the Arctic has warned.
. . .
“Only evaluation in the coming years will allow us to determine if we can still save the year-round Arctic sea ice through forceful climate protection or whether we have already passed this important tipping point in the climate system,” Professor Rex added, urging rapid action to halt warming.
…
Stefanie Arndt, who specialises in sea ice physics, said it was ‘painful to know that we are possibly the last generation who can experience an Arctic which still has a sea ice cover in the summer’ “.
My objective (I hope) reading of these quotes DOES NOT lead me to the conclusion Eric states in both the title of his above article and its very first sentence.
Please, WUWT, let’s not resort to the same tactics that are frequently used by the “dark side” in the ongoing debate over “climate change”.
Giant gas-driven ice-making machines in the Arctic is the obvious answer.
Works for ski areas.
Wrong perfessor! We’ve simply entered the Green Vortex and we’re all saved-
The ‘Green Vortex’ Is Saving America’s Climate Future (msn.com)
I am so glad. Now, just as “modern” monetary “theory” obviates any taxation, so Global Whining irreversibility obviates any Cool Kid tyranny.
I myself have been waiting forever to burn truck tires with impunity. Whoo hoo …
”“Only evaluation in the coming years will allow us to determine if we can still save the year-round Arctic sea ice through forceful climate protection”
Hmmm.. A common concern. Just the other day there was another ”scientist” on the BBC commenting on the Pine Island glacier. She said it was reversible. While lying in bed I thought to myself, I wonder if we are we still able to get superman on the line? Maybe he could fly around the Earth really really fast, reverse it’s spin and get us back to the good old days!
I’d call it a reversible anti-tipping point, the AMO and Arctic are normally warmer during a centennial solar minimum.
Did George Orwell leave a list of things future idiots were supposed to do?
“Professor Rex led the world’s biggest mission to the North Pole, an expedition involving 300 scientists from 20 countries.”
Wow, 300 scientists!! 20 countries! Who could deny that much science all concentrated into one mission? Surely this tipping point has indeed been reached!
““Only evaluation in the coming years will allow us to determine if we can still save the year-round Arctic sea ice …”
Oh, wait, the highly concentrated science is going to need years of “evaluation” to determine if this tipping point has been reached . . So, I suppose they need some highly concentrated funding over the coming years. At least till that “forceful climate protection” money gets flowing . .
Hey Griff was right we are doomed …. party time till end of world.
Only in the next few years can we determine whether we can still save the Arctic sea ice through strong climate protection, or whether we have passed the critical point of the climate system. But I know for sure, carmakers like Volvo have been aware of their social responsibilities in recent years.
Oh well, if it’s irreversible then I might as well drive my Escalade to the McDonald’s drive thru and order a methane belching cow burger – 🍔 Make that a double.
This statement is self contradictory. Rapid action need not be taken at all, because the professor already told us that only evaluation in the coming years will work.
So who are you going to believe? The professor or the professor?
There is a dutch “educational” website to scare children with alarmism
https://www.tippingpointahead.nl/
Mosaic expedition was public and nice to follow on the internet.
They predicted to follow with the ice and made a predicted time table.
The actual flow was twice as fast.
My take home on this is that the ice is moving faster and the melting takes place more southerly.
The models overcalculated icemelt in Arctic and underestimate ice melt due to lover latitudes.
It is NOT worse than the thought!
Icebreakers had a hard time to replace the crew. Russia had to send more fuel and one more breaker to reach them.
My takehom on this is that the icecover was more hard to break due to more and thicker ice than anticipated.
It is not less ice!
Submarines surfaced at the North Pole in 1950’s. Light to zero summer ice is unprecedented.
On SBS evening news last night in Australia (16 June),Professor Will Steffen spruiked the result of the Arctic expedition mentioned here.
As Professor Steffen is the principal author of Steffen et al (2018),”Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene”,PNAS,August 14,2018, his excitable commentary was predictable.
Here are the opening sentences of the Abstract of this paper which give one an idea of its calibre-
“We explore the risk that self re-inforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that,if crossed,could prevent stabilisation at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even if human emissions are reduced.
Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene…”
If I may quote former Australian PM Billy Hughes from a century ago,spoken about a political opponent-
“If they paved the road from Brisbane to Birdsville with Bibles and he swore an oath on every one of them,I wouldn’t believe a b….y word he said!”
If we have reached the point of no return, great! There’s no reason to worry about fixing the climate any more. And since it is “irreversible,” there’s absolutely nothing we can do about it now, anyway. Think of the money we’ll save by cancelling research grants and clean energy subsidies.
Science fiction: “The zombie apocalypse has begun”.
Science: “The zombie apocalypse may have already begun”.
Nuance is everything.
“the biggest expedition to the Arctic” lasted less than a year. It tells us NOTHING about long term change. All press coverage of this is a total lie.
There is NOTHING new here, just some activist scientist making yet more vague, may-be, could-be possibly claims about what “may” happen at some unspecified time in the future.
In the service industry the “tipping point” is when someone hands you some extra cash because they like what you do. Apparently some “scientists” are hoping for a similar outcome but without actually providing any useful service.
Wait, I’ve heard this one before. Doesn’t it start “A penguin and a naked lady walk into a bar”? But the punch line is always the same.
Caption competition.
What are the penguins saying?
Whilst you were in Bodø I hope you got to visit the wonderful Norwegian Aviation Museum.
Oh, you skeptics! Don’t you realize that this was the biggest-ever expedition – not just big, but biggest-ever. Surely that put the issue beyond doubt.