Autumn In United Kingdom, Ireland Has Not Warmed Since 1995 …Cooling Tendency

Reposted from NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 27. December 2020

By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Global warming activists like to remind us how so many places on the globe are warming faster than anywhere else. And if every region is warming, then we would expect the spring season to be arriving earlier and fall starting later, meaning an extended summer season.

Today we look at fall (Sept – Nov) mean temperatures at stations across United kingdom and Ireland. We use data from Japan Meteorological Agency at the stations for which there are enough data going back to 1995 or earlier. These data are untampered, unlike the NASA GISS data.

United Kingdom: 8 of 14 stations cooling, no longer warming 

First we start with fall mean temperature data from 14 stations scattered across the United Kingdom:


Data source: JMA

Taken as a whole, above we see no real warming having taken place in the United Kingdom since 1995. Eight of the 14 stations in fact show cooling or no warming trend.  Though the mean fall temperature rose over the course of the 20th century, it hasn’t risen this century. This defies the often heard media claims  of warming by the climate alarmists.

Ireland

Next a plot of the mean fall temperature for Ireland also shows the same story: no real change in over 30 years. Here we have 6 stations for which the JMA has data going back to 1989.

Data source: JMA

Four of Ireland’s 6 stations show cooling temperatures. Two are warming, but not significantly by any measure.

So why have the mean fall temperatures stalled in the United Kingdom and Ireland? Global warming alarmists don’t want you to know this, but there are so called oceanic cycles that dominate regional climates on a decadal scale. For Western Europe especially the AMO has an impact:

No wonder fall temperatures have stalled. The warm phase of the AMO has peaked and has been heading down since 2008. CO2 is not what is driving the climate.

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dh-mtl
December 28, 2020 6:28 am

‘So why have the mean fall temperatures stalled in the United Kingdom and Ireland?’

Because you haven’t adjusted them properly!

Scissor
December 28, 2020 6:28 am

A decade or so of good skating in the canals and the Dutch would be most appreciative.

John Savage
December 28, 2020 6:32 am

Has anyone updated the AMO index since 2015? If so, please post a link. Thanks.

dh-mtl
Reply to  John Savage
December 28, 2020 7:13 am

Here’s the NOAA AMO data set.

http://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/

2hotel9
December 28, 2020 6:35 am

Are the “weather” monitoring stations as strategically placed over there as they are in US? Middle of blacktopped parking lots, roofs of commercial and industrial buildings, bolted to the sides of HVAC units, etc etc? If so then even that ploy has failed. And yet the environistas continue to screech&wail that the planet is on fire and we are all going to die, DIE, because we hate the climate.

Pointing out facts and reality is simply not going to change the leftists continual screeching of lies. It is all they have and they are inordinately proud of each and every lie they tell.

Richard Page
Reply to  2hotel9
December 28, 2020 7:26 am

Almost. The met office has a list of the temperature station locations on its site – 90-95% fail to reach the minimum standard. Some, like Heathrow, are a complete joke now – it’s sandwiched between a busy access road and car park on one side and a runway on the other – it gets hot jet exhaust covering it many times a day. And yet it is still used as a main temperature station in the dataset.

Phil
Reply to  2hotel9
December 28, 2020 7:56 am

Most of the weather stations here are properly placed, none of the US shenanigans with car parks or AV vents to contend with.
Our nearest Met Éireann station is in the middle of a field and my personal station mostly gives near identical readings, despite being not as well placed.

The Gulf stream has an extremely moderating affect on the climate in this part of the world.
Too many other places have been terraformed (built up, deforestation, and other man made changes) such that their local climates have changed significantly.

Local man made climate changes do not make a global change, it just bends the figures as most sensors are in terraformed areas.

The Contempible
Reply to  2hotel9
December 28, 2020 10:49 am

Can’t speak for the Irish weather stations, but the UK ones are either airfields/airports or in rural areas.

Richard Page
Reply to  The Contempible
December 28, 2020 1:14 pm

Several are in parks in the centre of towns and more than a few WERE in rural areas that have been built up round them in the 60-80 years since they were originally sited (or even longer in many cases). Don’t take my word for it and don’t assume they’re fine because no-one’s been screaming about them; go onto the met office site, get the list of co-ordinates of the weather stations and pop them into Google maps to have a look at. I can promise you that you’ll be shocked by the results.

Last edited 9 months ago by Richard Page
The Contempible
Reply to  Richard Page
December 29, 2020 8:16 am

Just checked a sample of the weather stations listed above: they are active RAF airfields or civilian airports. That said, any glider pilot will tell you that a runway is often a reliable thermal source at the end of the soaring day.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Richard Page
December 30, 2020 6:23 am

A couple of years back one winter evening I drove the 8 miles from my home to the estates of offices, factories, warehouses, retail parks etc that surround Gatwick Airport. On getting in my car to had home I noticed the temperature was reading 3C. It had been -1C when I left home. So with interest I drove back home and watched as the temperature slowly dropped back to -1C when I got home. I have also driven out from the suburbs of London and seen a drop of 5C. UHI anyone?

donald penman
December 28, 2020 6:54 am
2hotel9
Reply to  donald penman
December 28, 2020 7:04 am

Hope we didn’t break ECMWF’s app,WUWT has been known to have that effect, can’t get the image to load on my laptop.

donald penman
Reply to  2hotel9
December 28, 2020 7:23 am

I am not sure I can get it to load but the link is a funny colour might be not working ?

Ian Johnson.
Reply to  donald penman
December 28, 2020 12:17 pm

It is playing on Win 10 desktop with Microsoft Edge.

bonbon
Reply to  donald penman
December 29, 2020 3:47 am

Not quite.
East Anglia gets the full brunt of the cold North Sea, while Wales, Eire and Scotland get the boiling Gulf Steam at 10C.

griff
December 28, 2020 7:13 am

Maybe you should be looking at the rainfall patterns for the UK… which have decisively changed. Climate change as it affects the UK is mainly more storms and in particular more extreme rainfall events and more flooding. Warming is confined to summer heatwaves.

Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 7:29 am

Not true. Paul Homewood has examined the data in great detail and shown that rainfall patterns in the UK are less extreme and flooding has reduced. See https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/

fred250
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 28, 2020 10:49 am

“Paul Homewood has examined the data in great detail and shown that rainfall patterns in the UK are less extreme and flooding has reduced

I generally regard ANYTHING griff says as a downright LIE or FABRICATION.

Saves time.!

Real data invariably shows us he is WRONG. !

philincalifornia
Reply to  fred250
December 28, 2020 12:21 pm

Yep, when the voices in your head get “scientific data” from the BBC.

In fact, everything the BBC says about climate (and polar bears and walruses) is a downright LIE or FABRICATION.

fred250
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 28, 2020 10:56 am

And of course, even if there are any slight changes, this is TOTALLY NATURAL as climate changes NATURALLY all the time.

griff is TOTALLY ABSENT on any science showing human causation

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 7:35 am

Flooding is down to the change in river management under the EU – the UK used to dredge most major rivers and flooding was under control a lot of the time. As to storms I think you’ll find no trend increase or decrease there – we get roughly the same from year to year. Rainfall is more iffy; I don’t have the figures to hand but I think it’s still roughly the same – the only likely trend might be for it becoming more seasonal and not spread evenly throughout the year, but I’d have to check – CBA on that though!

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 7:59 am

So you’re telling us and yourself that it’s not about warming but just a new kind of touchless, blame game flood control policy? What nerve!

Reply to  ResourceGuy
December 28, 2020 8:36 am

This is what now passes for “severe” flooding of the Great Ouse in Bedford due to Storm Bella (H/T .Paul Homewood).
The Reuters photo was taken from this Google Street View Location.

image-182[1].png
saveenergy
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
December 28, 2020 8:39 am

Nice one Phil

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 8:39 am

Ah, always wrong
All is right with the world

Graemethecat
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
December 28, 2020 10:56 am

Like his favourite newspaper, The Grauniad, Griff is wrong about everything, all the time.

bonbon
Reply to  Graemethecat
December 29, 2020 3:50 am

Even a blunderbuss will hit a barn door.

Climate believer
Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 10:41 am

When you say “rainfall patterns have decisively changed” can you provide examples?

The UK temperate climate rainfall pattern is pretty much Western seaboard wet, moving to dryer on the Eastern seaboard, what’s changed?

“Mainly more storms” ….. you’re parroting model scenarios which don’t reflect reality.

These are the studies by Zappa et al, 2013 and Sansom et al, 2013 which indicate that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the frequency of storms over the UK will increase by 0.3 to 1.2 over the majority of the UK, apart from over southern UK where the number of storms will decrease by up to 0.3 storms per year.

AIR Worldwide wrote a report for the Association of British Insurers who found “that under a global temperature increase of 1.5°C we are indicating a decrease in the number of storms affecting the UK.”

Either way, storms are not increasing in reality, and even models can’t muster more of them.

extreme rainfall events and more flooding” …….

statistic_id584914_monthly-rainfall-in-the-united-kingdom-2014-2020.png
Notanacademic
Reply to  griff
December 28, 2020 4:02 pm

The only reason the British public think we have more storms is because they’ve decided to give them all names they hardly compare to the named storms in America do they. We’ve just had one, Bella I think (not sure cos listening to the weather is now a complete waste of time) it couldn’t of blown the skin off a rice pudding and I live in the Rosendale valley on top of a hill (1000ft above sea level) if the weather’s bad some where in England it’s bad here. Telling people we have more storms and giving every draught a name doesn’t mean the weather is more extreme than it used to be. It might fool a gullible public but….oh hang on a minute that’s the idea isn’t it ?

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  griff
December 29, 2020 6:38 am

As usual – no data. If you make a claim, especially one as easy to support as this one since precipitation data are available, do the work and show us the data. No data – no cookie.

Richard Page
December 28, 2020 7:21 am

And these figures are with 90- 95% of all temperature stations no longer meeting the minimum standard for stations. Heathrow may be good for incoming planes but it’s still a complete joke as a meteorological/temperature station and part of the data. If these so-called scientists were in any way serious about observing the actual temperature record then they would have been shouting for the stations to be moved to uncontaminated sites. As it is there has been silence on the subject.

Steve Taylor
Reply to  Richard Page
December 28, 2020 8:40 am

I do wonder, but aren’t the stations in the original graph all RAF stations ? I wouldn’t have expected massive development around them, like the big civil airports.

Richard Page
Reply to  Steve Taylor
December 28, 2020 1:25 pm

More than a few WERE in public parks on the edge of towns that have become built up and surrounded. A few more were sited outside of towns and urban sprawl over-ran them. Of the old RAF station ones, most have been decommissoned over the years and the ones that are left are pretty useless for temperature data – they have to be sited on or right next to a runway to be relevant to the pilots, which means they get jet exhaust over them on a regular basis. As I’ve mentioned above go to the met office site and pop the coordinates into Google maps to get an idea of what the scale of the problem is like.

RobH
Reply to  Steve Taylor
December 28, 2020 1:46 pm

Most are. Some now even disused (e.g. Manston, though that may have got warmer over Christmas with all those lorries ticking over while waiting to cross to France!).

December 28, 2020 7:22 am

What has happned to the AMO since 2015? The graph shown stops at 2015.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 28, 2020 7:53 am

The not-detrended data series shows the story of the recent turning point in that long run cycle. Unfortunately, a lot of people point to the detrended series without questioning the validity of detrending a long run cycle with few available turning points to work with in the series.

comment image

The tragedy and cost of cycle illiteracy continues.

Mike
Reply to  ResourceGuy
December 28, 2020 7:01 pm

”The tragedy and cost of cycle illiteracy continues”

Yes. All the talk of ECS, radiative balance, net heat flow, thermodynamics, feedbacks, etc etc will sink into the murky depths of insignificance, never to be seen or heard from again, along with Mr. Mann, Greta and and other assorted zombies. It’s a just a matter of time.
Cold has the effect of focusing the mind – just as it’s doing in Scotland and Ireland at the moment.

ResourceGuy
December 28, 2020 7:35 am

And thus explains the climate emergency. It’s a race against reality.

Mike
Reply to  ResourceGuy
December 28, 2020 7:02 pm

A race that will be lost….again.

Steve Case
December 28, 2020 8:06 am

It’s not just Ireland and it’s not just autumn. We really have two seasons in the temperate zones, warm and cold i.e, May – October. Here’s a map of the United States showing that much of the nation is enjoying cooler summer afternoons:
comment image

Quite a few have shown cooling since the 19th century. Our friends on the left will tell us that the U.S. is a small percentage of the globe and isn’t representative.

The United States isn’t the world, but it spans North America with a good variety of geography and topography which makes it a good sub-set of a land mass. World-wide, the US has the best sampling of weather data of any significant land surface. If the US does not show warming, a strong explanation is needed as to why it is an outlier compared to the rest of the world as a whole. Taken from (Richard Verney, WUWT, July 2017)

Graemethecat
Reply to  Steve Case
December 29, 2020 10:18 am

Strangely enough, were the US to show a warming trend, the US would suddenly be representative of the entire Earth and our friends on the Left would be screaming blue murder about it from the rooftops.

December 28, 2020 9:16 am

The “climate shift” of the late 20th century continues to be shamefully exploited for ” … IS warming” headlines. No, there certainly WAS warming, not much in recent decades.

Gerald Ratcliff
December 28, 2020 9:46 am

As you are writing about the weather in the UK, PLEASE use the word Autumn, not the Fall !!!!!

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Gerald Ratcliff
December 28, 2020 11:30 am

I must spring to our defence and state that, here in the States, we Autumn-atically say “Fall.”

Richard Page
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
December 28, 2020 1:26 pm

As a command or a statement?

rleewinters
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
December 28, 2020 5:14 pm

But we spell it defense. Watch an NFL game.

Richard Page
Reply to  rleewinters
December 28, 2020 8:16 pm

NFL? In the UK we spell that RUFC! Heh.

Otteryd
Reply to  Richard Page
December 29, 2020 2:27 pm

NFL = RUFC+Kevlar

Shanghai Dan
December 28, 2020 10:05 am

Such logic fail on display here – I can’t believe this was posted.

How many times have we been told: local cooling trends are NOT indicative of global climate!

However, local heating trends are proof of global warming…

Reply to  Shanghai Dan
December 28, 2020 11:05 am

It’s more cherry picking than logic. Scour the world for a region, look through that for a season that works, and yes, we have cooling in 8 out of 14!

DaveS
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 11:38 am

If you can show that that is what they did, do so. If not, explain the point of your comment.

Loydo
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 11:41 am

And then dust off the AMO graph to suggest, well, anything but CO2.

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
December 28, 2020 11:51 am

Again, PLENTY of things that could have caused the slight but HIGHLY BENEFICIAL warming since the COLDEST period in 10,000 years

Warming in the satellite era has come ONLY at El Nino events, so no human causation there.

Care to make an attempt this time, empty sock-muppet.

1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
December 28, 2020 11:54 am

Poor Loy-satte.

AMO is totally linked to Arctic temperatures.

AMO vs real Reykjavik temperatures

comment image

DENIAL of empirical facts is making you look like a mental abyss.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Loydo
December 28, 2020 12:41 pm

“And then dust off the AMO graph to suggest, well, anything but CO2 …”.
There is a grain of truth in that comment but the fault lies with both sides of the CC™ debate often presented as a false dichotomy.
The global climate is impossibly complex with multiple factors operating sometimes in conjunction sometimes in opposition, increasing CO2 is just one.

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
December 28, 2020 6:09 pm

Like most progressives, Loydo’s mind is not complex enough to handle the concept of more than one thing being responsible for a trend.

Mike
Reply to  Loydo
December 28, 2020 7:25 pm

And then dust off the AMO graph to suggest, well, anything but CO2.”

Loydo seems unaware of just how strong an effect ocean temps have on weather. – long term – short term – ”climate”

Mid summer here and last night was 8C. Most nights are around 10. Usually 15 this time of year. Days have been cool. Only one or two approaching 30. All summer so far has been COOL. Heaters still come on at night. Nights cold. Glasshouse heater normally off this time of year – now still on every night. All that from a mild La Nina.

The coming dip in the AMO will focus your attention sunshine. You won’t be co2ing that much.

fred250
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 11:57 am

Nick has just ADMITTED that warming IS NOT GLOBAL.

Well done, Nick..

Now go back to your rocking chair….

Reply to  fred250
December 28, 2020 12:15 pm

I post maps of local trends around the world 
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_9.html
You can select your decades. Over any period most of the world shows a warming trend. Some parts do not.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 1:29 pm

And some parts are better measured than others but with longer cycles involved and potential greater importance for interpretation….
comment image
comment image

fred250
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 8:24 pm

I don’t take any notice of Moyhu graphs or visit that rabid alarmist site.

Good try.

MANY parts do not show warming.

MANY parts show UHI and its smeared/homogenised effect

MANY parts show temperature now similar to the 1930s, 40s

Warming in the satellite era has come only at big El nino events..

ALL parts show COOLER temperatures now than for most of the last 10,000 years.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 28, 2020 1:07 pm

That’s after warmunists practically shot down the satellites as a global record, short as that record is. They prefer biased surface station data for the best chart scares and hide from UHI trends.

Reply to  ResourceGuy
December 28, 2020 5:28 pm

“That’s after warmunists practically shot down the satellites as a global record,”
Pretty good shooters.

Lrp
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 29, 2020 12:10 am

Champion cherry pickers

Richard Page
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 29, 2020 4:41 am

It isn’t cherry picking. The UK will be hosting the next COP junket at the same time that the data shows significant cooling. This is going to be highly embarrassing not to mention that it’ll undermine the propaganda message with all of the climate activists and the biased MSM watching around the world. It’s a bit of an ‘own goal’ quite frankly which won’t help ‘the cause’.

ren
December 28, 2020 11:38 am

What will this winter bring to Britain? Snow and frost.comment image

Leo Smith
Reply to  ren
December 28, 2020 12:13 pm

White tigers!

wtiger.png
taxed
Reply to  ren
December 28, 2020 12:46 pm

l have kept a record of the date of the first snow of the winter in my local area in North Lincs, England since 1977 and this also has shown no warming trend during that time

taxed
Reply to  taxed
December 28, 2020 1:01 pm

Here is the data since 1995.
95/96 17th Nov
96/97 19th Nov
97/98 2nd Dec
98/99 5th Dec
99/00 18th Nov
00/01 30th Oct
01/02 8th Nov
02/03 4th Jan
03/04 22nd Dec
04/05 18th Jan
05/06 28th Nov
06/07 23rd Jan
07/08 23rd Nov
08/09 23rd Nov
09/10 17th Dec
10/11 25th Nov
11/12 5th Dec
12/13 27th Oct (earliest first snow since 1977)
13/14 27th Jan
14/15 26th Dec
15/16 21st Nov
16/17 18th Nov
17/18 29th Nov
18/19 27th Oct
19/20 11th Feb ( latest first snow since 1977)
20/21 4th Dec

ren
Reply to  taxed
December 28, 2020 1:21 pm

The polar vortex will ensure a decent winter in the northern hemisphere.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/12/29/0000Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-339.22,76.16,469

taxed
Reply to  ren
December 28, 2020 1:40 pm

Certain parts of the UK along with my local area enjoyed a “white Christmas” this year

n.n
December 28, 2020 12:46 pm

Climate variability is not so narrow to fit through the eye of the predicted [catastrophic] [anthropogenic] climate cooling… warming… change anomaly.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  n.n
December 28, 2020 1:19 pm

It’s mainly about trolling such magic tricks and not actually doing it.

Brian251
December 28, 2020 1:26 pm

Strange collection of sites: 10 coastal, 4 inland; 6 in remote areas of Scotland, only 5 in England.

Bellman
December 28, 2020 6:15 pm

Any particular reason to start in 1995 and only look at Autumn temperatures?

Using Met Office data for the UK, there is a slight decline in temperatures over Autumn since 1995, but rises in all other seasons.

Autumn: -0.3°C / century
Winter: +2.1°C / century
Spring: +2.2°C / century
Summer: +0.8°C / century

But none of these trends are statistically significant as it’s only a short time over quite noisy data.

Bob Hunter
December 29, 2020 1:38 pm

This climate change skeptic would like to know what the 14 stations indicated in the last 25 years for the winter, spring and summer.
Or did I miss something?

Ulric Lyons
January 5, 2021 5:41 am

UK Autumn sunshine hours have been declining:

comment image

but the AMO has warmed since 2008:

https://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/esrl-amo/from:1990/plot/esrl-amo/from:2008/trend

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