Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the Australian CSIRO, Australia has already warmed by 1.4 ± 0.22C. But the CSIRO assures us bad things are happening, really. And they’re going to get worse. But they admit tropical cyclones have decreased, and while overall river flow is down, tropical wet season rainfall is up.
Key points
Australia
Australia’s climate has warmed
on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.There has been a decline of around 16 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region May–July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 20 per cent since 1970.
In the southeast of Australia there has been a decline of around
12 per cent in April to October rainfall since the late 1990s.There has been a decrease in streamflow at the majority of streamflow gauges across southern Australia since 1975.
Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.
There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and in the length of the fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s, especially in southern Australia.
Anomalies in annual mean sea surface temperature, and temperature over land, in the Australian region. Anomalies are the departures from the 1961–1990 standard averaging period. Sea surface temperature values (data source: ERSST v5, www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/) are provided for a region around Australia (4–46 °S and 94–174 °E).
Australia’s climate has warmed since national records began in 1910. The oceans surrounding Australia have also warmed.
2 Report at a glance
There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region since 1982.
Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by around 1 °C since 1910, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.
• Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes, that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.
Future
In the coming decades Australia will experience ongoing changes to its climate. Australia is projected to see:
- Continued increases in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.
- Continued decrease in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, likely leading to more time in drought, yet more intense, short duration heavy rainfall events.
• A consequential increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.
• Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.
• Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments, such as kelp forests, and raise the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier and Ningaloo reefs.
• Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion projected to be of high intensity, with large variations from year to year.
Read more: https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/state-of-the-climate
As someone who lives in a warm part of Australia, I’ve got to say 1.4C warming since 1910 does not feel like the end of the world.
There is substantial evidence Australia experienced warm spells in the 1800s comparable to today. 435 people died in a heatwave in 1894, a few years before the starting point of the CSIRO’s warming trend. Even more people died in the early 1900s (see the top of the page). JoNova has some information about extremely warm Australian temperatures recorded in the 1800s which the CSIRO and BOM usually seem to leave out when preparing climate reports.
If the drop in rainfall in the south is a genuine trend rather than just an example of Australia’s multi-decadal climate noise, the CSIRO has a solution on the drawing board which would drastically increase water availability for Australian farmers; a tropical megadam scheme which could capture some of that increased wet season rainfall, instead of continuing to allow it flow out into the sea.
If our politicians stopped frittering cash on renewables and pumped hydro schemes which cannot possibly have a measurable impact on global warming, there might be some money to spare to ensure water security for our farmers, regardless of any changes to Australia’s rainfall patterns.
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COVID-19 scare over, back to climate change.
Mark
At the same time you have to ask how many people can’t afford heating in the winter.
“According to the Australian CSIRO…”
Wake me up when they have something of value to say…
I do find it so interesting that there is a peak in heat deaths during the 1930’s in australia, Exactly at the same time as all the heat records in the US that they are busily trying to erase. A global occurance?
‘As someone who lives in a warm part of Australia, I’ve got to say 1.4C warming since 1910 does not feel like the end of the world.’
but it didn’t just gradually move up so all the temps were just 1.4 degrees… that represents and awful lot of seasonal heatwaves and 40 degree plus temperatures.
WRONG, as always, griffette.
The hottest temperatures measured in Stevenson shields in Australia were all BEFORE 1910 !
The REAL temperatures in Australia are no warmer now than in the late 1800s
And,as the rusty nail has shown everyone, apart from El Nino events there has been no measurable warming over Australia since 1980… thanks rusty 😉
As as you are well aware, the surface stations in Australia cannot be used for any sort of “climate” calculation, too many of them are so totally compromised as to make the totally unfit for purpose.
Not only that, but any real data that was available has been manically “adjusted” to the wazoo.
Hey griff, I know ACTUAL REAL DATA is totally meaningless to you.
But others might like to see it anyway.
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/09/australia-shows-no-warming-since-1876/
It isn’t worth the argument for us in Western Australia 1.4 degree hotter is meaningless both to the humans and nature. We are a dry, hot semi-arid land and neither human nor nature are going to really phased by it … it’s a bit like saying the Sahara desert is going to get 1.4 degree hotter.
The biggest climate issue for Western Australia has and always will be rainfall.
“griff November 14, 2020 at 1:16 am”
No idea Griff spouting the usual rubbish.
great
Heatwaves, droughts and floods are all just relative terms and have no useful meaning when discussing large areas with different climates.
LdB,
Have you discovered that we have a train of BOM historic temperature versions that cpntains at least, Raw, High Quality, AWAP, gridded, ACORN-SAT version 1, ACORN_SAT version 2 and now ACORN-SAT version 2.1.
What does an author do on discovering that the meticulous paper just written, used an outdated version? What if the newest version affects the conclusions so academically derived? Geoff S
Every time BOM “adjusts” 🔨 the data….
… it make any science papers using previous data, redundant. 🙂
This scare was reported in “The Australian” of Friday 13 November on page 5 as “Climate’s summer of extremes”. A side bar had some “Climate Forecasts”:-
More extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days
A longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days
A continued decrease in cool season rainfall is likely to lead to more time in drought, yet more intense, short duration heavy rainfall events,
ETC
The following URL MAY lead to the article:
On page 9 there is “Healthy Appetite for Innovation”, with the sub title “The CSIRO is pioneering a bold, strong and profitable future after COVID-19”.
The first paragraph starts:
“After years in drought, most grain-growing regions in Australia are about to pull in their first decent crop in a long time. For our livestock farmers the recovery will be slower as they rebuild herds and flocks. If it wasn’t for CSIRO we might be more optimistic about the bumper harvest the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Sciences forecasts. It foresees a 91 per cent increase in wheat production on last year and potentially the biggest crop since the record high of 2016-17. But global economic decline and decreased consumer demand due to the pandemic have lowered prices, and Australia’s export earnings are not predicted to increase. …..”
Not a dickey bird about Climate Disasters! As the Yanks might say “Go figure”!
Precipitation seems reciprocal to amount of Green electricity, according to the “Wet Season Rainfall” map in the post.
Stop Green, it’s causing drought!
The study includes hot wind gusts for several seconds at airports which weren’t used back in 1910. Cut by 50% and it’s in the ballpark.
Since Aussie politicians are so fond of telling us that Carbon Dioxide causes Global Warming/Climate Change, when are they going to stop exporting Millions of Tons of Carbon every year (Coal, Petroleum, and Natural Gas) to China where that Carbon is burned and produces Carbon Dioxide? Or will those politicians continue to hide their cognitive dissonance and hypocrisy behind a screen of virtue signalling?
Maybe we should let The Greens “win” and totally stop exports of thermal coal and natural gas. Then our usage will be relatively insignificant vs the amount no longer consumed overseas.
May as well stop exports of metallurgical coal as well since The Greens can’t distinguish between the different types. And The Greens can also provide detailed plans for all the green, renewable jobs for the displaced mining workers- fully costed, of course.
Shhhh we might smoke dope but we don’t inhale silly.
On that note our dwindling oil refineries have like coal fired power stations been running on sticky tape and string to eke the last of the revenue out of them. To that end and no Gummint wanting to lower the boom on them we still have Euro5 vehicle emissions standards running 91 octane petrol with higher sulphur content because there’s no economic case for upgrading them to cleaner 95 and 98 RON. Introduce higher fuel standard and they’d all close but Covid has brought forward the crunch time for them suddenly and decisions decisions as to whether Federal and State Gummints of different persuasions will kick their can down the road-
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/running-on-empty-oil-refineries-at-breaking-point-as-world-grinds-to-a-halt-20201113-p56ecd.html
Only the impotent are pure in politics particularly at a time of high unemployment and cash splashes with Covid for all sorts of hungry mouths.
From the article: “There is substantial evidence Australia experienced warm spells in the 1800s comparable to today.”
We don’t have to go back to the 1800’s to show it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today.
Australia Tmax temperature chart:
As you can see from the chart, it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century (ETC) in Australia as it is today, so claiming Australia’s temperatures have increased since the ETC is just wrong. Provably wrong. The proof is right in front of everyone’s eyes.
Funny how lots of people seem to ignore this aspect of the temperature record. And I don’t mean alarmists. I expect them to ignore the written temperature records because they invalidate the Human-caused Climate Change claims, so naturally they are going to ignore them and downplay them.
What I don’t understand is why more skeptics don’t start pointing at the written temperature record as evidence that CO2 is an insignificant player in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Since it was just as warm in the ETC as it is today, and yet there is much more CO2 in the atmoshere today than in the ETC, this has to mean that CO2 is a minor player in the Earth’s atmosphere. Much more CO2 in today’s atmosphere, but it’s no warmer now than in the ETC, equals CO2 not being a big factor in Earth’s temperatures.
It seems too many people on both sides have been hypnotized by the Bogus, Bastardized Modern-era Hockey Stick Global Surface Temperature chart, which changes the temperature profile from a cyclical pattern (warm, cold, warm again), which is shown by regional temperature charts from all over the world, into a “hotter and hotter” pattern, which is unique and does not represent the real global surface temperature.
No regional surface temperature chart resembles the bogus, bastardized Modern-era Hockey Stick chart. The Hockey Stick is all by itself. It is computer-generated, greed-generated, science fiction used to promote the science fiction of Human-caused Climate Change.
Here’s a comparison of the US surface temperature chart (the REAL temperature profile of the Earth) on the left, and the bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick on the right.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/
All unmodified regional surface temperature charts look like the US surface temperature chart which shows it was just as warm in the ETC as it is today. That’s why I say the US surface temperaute chart represents the real temperature profile of Earth. The real temperature profile of the Earth shows us we have nothing to worry about from CO2.
No unmodified regional surface temperature chart resembles the bogus Hockey Stick chart. That ought to tell you that the Hockey Stick chart does not represent reality in any way, shape or form.
The written temperature record is reality. The computer-generated Hockey Stick record is science fiction. Reality says we don’t have to worry about CO2. Science Fiction says, “It’s worse that we thought!”
” it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century (ETC) in Australia as it is today, so claiming Australia’s temperatures have increased since the ETC is just wrong. Provably wrong. The proof is right in front of everyone’s eyes..”
No it isn’t. Bob’s graph ends in 2012, excluding the warmest years. Even without them, the trend line on his graph looks to be climbing.
The missing 8 warmest years. “Funny how lots of people seem to ignore this aspect of the temperature record.” Mmm.
You mean excluding the years just after the end of the strongest period of solar cycles in many hundreds of years.
The warming caused by a large El Nino event.? That warming ??
An event that had NOTHING to do with any human causation whatsoever. ??
Only warming in the satellite era has come at El Nino events
UAH Australia show 2020 year to date as being below 1998 and 2013, about equal to 2002, 2005
….. so your comment is YET AGAIN, based on ignorance.
Would you like to try to provide some evidence for your continued propaganda parrot droppings?
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
“The missing 8 warmest years”
Only in BOM’s much adjusted and UHI affected fabrication.
Where past data has been stored in the freezer.
…. or in the case of pre-1910 data… given to the dog to bury in the back yard.
“The missing 8 warmest years. “Funny how lots of people seem to ignore this aspect of the temperature record.” Mmm.”
Well, you see, Loydo, Austrailia has its own homegrown Data Manipulators in the form of the BOM, and like their counterparts in other parts of the world, they bastardize the temperature records for political purposes.
Here’s an example of how the Data Manipulators have manipulated the US surface temperature record. The first link is the actual tempratures before the data is manipulated, and shows that it was warmer in the 1930’s than it is today. The second chart is the bastardized one where the Data Manipulators have changed a cyclical temperature profile into a “hotter and hotter” temperature profile that conforms with their Human-caused Climate Change Hoax.
Austrailia’s Data Manipulators have done the same thing to Austrailia’s surface temperature chart.
US Tmax Raw chart compared to bastardized Tmax:
None of the internal US regional surface temperature charts resemble the “hotter and hotter” temperature profile. They all show cyclical movement and they show that the Early Twentieth Century was just as warm as today. I bet Australia’s internal unmodified regional surface temperature charts don’t show a “hotter and hotter” profile either.
Show me an unmodified Austrailian regional temperature chart with a “hotter and hotter” temperature profile.
History shows civilisations collapse from over burdening their surrounding land.
Australia is 7.692 million km2.
Australia has removed 40% forest / woodlands in 200 years predominately east coast, mostly last 50 years.
https://www.serca.org.au/research/2012/Bradshaw.pdf
“Desertification in some form is estimated to have occurred over about 42% of the 5 million km2 of arid and semiarid lands in Australia.”
Ludwig, J.A., Tongway, D.J. Desertification in Australia: An eye to grass roots and landscapes. Environ Monit Assess 37, 231–237 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00546891
Broadscale deforestation / grass woodland removal has huge impact on regional and localised rainfall and temperatures. The changes seen in Australia coincide with land use change acceleration, ie past 50 years or so.
Why is this not part of the conversation from either side?
It’s inconvenient and can’t be taxed.
Breaking news……
“Perth has recorded its wettest November on record — and we’re only halfway through.
As of 5pm today, heavy showers had dumped 76mm of rainfall in the first two weeks of the month.
The downpour has trumped the 1984 November rainfall record of 73.2mm.
More than three times the November rainfall average of 23mm has been recorded so far, and four times the 2019 November average of 18.4mm.
Perth has also recorded its coldest start to November in eight years, with three days where the temperature didn’t get above 19C.”
The problem with the BoM’s State of the Climate claim of increasing extreme heat events and annual hot days (see http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/timeseries.cgi?graph=HD35&ave_yr=0) since 1910 is that they’re based on homogenised ACORN rather than original RAW temperature observations.
ACORN reduces the number of 35.0C+ hot days in the first half of the 1900s as it does the average temperatures.
A comparison of hot days in RAW and ACORN can be viewed at http://www.waclimate.net/very-hot-days.html
I’ve added a couple of graphics today plus some text, including …
Two examples are Boulia in Queensland and Marble Bar in Western Australia, which provide many of the hot and very hot days within the total for all 112 ACORN weather stations. In 1910-1963, the 60 ACORN stations with maximum observations available since 1910 had 131,519 days above 35.0C in original RAW, and 115,202 in homogenised ACORN (-12.4%). Among these, 21,500 were at Boulia and Marble Bar in RAW (16.4% of Australian total), and 13,587 in ACORN (11.8% of Australian total).
Throw into this mix:
1. Relocation of stations from Post Offices to regional Airports.
2. Increasing size of aircraft using regional airports.
3. Replacing LIG thermometers with faster response electronic temperature gauges.
All contribute to measured temperature rise.
Warming is all rubbish. If there is a recorded temperature change as a long term trend, look for the inconsistencies in the actual measurement system rather than them being an accurate representation.
The temperature of tropical ocean cannot increase; cloud coverer over tropical oceans increases asymptotically as SST approaches 32C. The sun never shines on the surface below under these conditions. It is impossible for the SST in open water to exceed 32C. The only place on Earth where SST exceeds 32C is the Persian Gulf. The hot, dry desert winds prevent dense cloud formation despite very high rates of evaporation at ground level as well as high humidity in the near surface layer. But very low cloud cover and only sub-tropical sea surface above 27C that has not experienced cyclone.
So the CSIRO puts out a report to support itself. That’s actually what’s going on here.
It’s quite plain to see….
Quote from the report…..
“Our role at CSIRO is to accelerate this decarbonisation of electricity, industry and transport sectors by delivering transformational science, technologies and solutions”.
You see? That is their ”role”. Therefore, would you expect anything but the third rate garbage they have submitted?
FOLLOW THE MONEY.
Conflict of interest much??
The problem with the BoM’s State of the Climate claim of increasing extreme heat events and annual hot days (see http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/timeseries.cgi?graph=HD35&ave_yr=0) since 1910 is that they’re based on homogenised ACORN rather than original RAW temperature observations.
ACORN reduces the number of 35.0C+ hot days in the first half of the 1900s as it does the average temperatures.
A comparison of hot days in RAW and ACORN can be viewed at http://www.waclimate.net/very-hot-days.html
I’ve added a couple of graphic today plus some text, including …
Two examples are Boulia in Queensland and Marble Bar in Western Australia, which provide many of the hot and very hot days within the total for all 112 ACORN weather stations. In 1910-1963, the 60 ACORN stations with maximum observations available since 1910 had 131,519 days above 35.0C in original RAW, and 115,202 in homogenised ACORN (-12.4%). Among these, 21,500 were at Boulia and Marble Bar in RAW (16.4% of Australian total), and 13,587 in ACORN (11.8% of Australian total).
Well, congratulations to CSIRO (and BOM) for getting it up!
We all know that a lot of hard work and effort went into this.
Remember, climate statistics don’t just happen.