Italy experiences the coldest September in 50 years – with snowfall

Over the past weekend, temperatures in Italy plunged suddenly by between 10 and 15 degrees, resulting in the country’s coldest September in 50 years  and leading to snowfalls much earlier than usual, Italian media reports.

The cold has been particularly intense in Milan and Turin which recorded 5°C and 4°C degrees respectively on the night of Sunday 27 September.

GFS surface temperature for Sunday 27 September- purple is coldest

Temperatures also dropped steeply elsewhere – to below 10°C degrees in Tuscany – while hill towns in the central Lazio area witnessed snow over the weekend.

Snow fell on the hills and mountains in the greater Rome area and in the Lazio region as temperatures plummeted over the weekend, reports Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

Photo from Corriere della Sera over the weekend

Perched among the Simbruini mountains along the border between the regions of Lazio and Abruzzo, Cervara di Roma is located about 70 km (43.6 miles) from Rome.

At an altitude of 1,050 meters (3,444 ft) above sea level, Cervara is the highest historic center in the province of Rome.

https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/september-snow-falls-near-rome.html

Snowfalls were recorded at Monte Livata (near Subiaco), Cervara di Roma, Ciociaria, Campocatino and Forca d’Acero, in the area of S. Donato Valcomino, where Lazio meets the Abruzzo region.

https://www.wantedinmilan.com/news/italys-coldest-september-in-50-years.html

h/t to Ice Age Now

118 thoughts on “Italy experiences the coldest September in 50 years – with snowfall

    • Global warming if true, took a decade to establish a meaningful trend, so if climate variability is a natural cyclical process driven by various factors including changes in the solar input it may take a decade or so to establish a credible trend.
      As ‘one swallow doesn’t make a summer’ so one cold early autumn may not mean much by itself, but looking at other contributing factors it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
      Sun for many months now has been in a low activity regime and if it continues at the current rate for another 4-5 months we are heading for the longest solar minimum for 200 years, i.e since the Dalton Grand Minimum.
      http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/SSN-3-minima.htm
      Is this going to make any difference?
      I think it will, but as always time will tell.

      • How could it not make a difference is what I contend. The difference is over 1 W/m^2 at the TOA and probably more at the surface, but the biggest change is a lengthening of the wavelength spectrum. I have a feeling that the global temperatures will plunge back to 1990 levels by April and will only recover to 1999-2014 levels by the end of 2021. Basically, thermal inertia from the Modern Maximum is running out and La Ninas will start dominating the global temperature trend over El Ninos.

        • Imo, from reading the tea leaves I would sincerely doubt that temps will rebound by the end of 2021. I think that the cool trend is going to last into the late 2030s before the next natural warm trend sets in once again. The reason for saying that is that I think that negative ENSOs will dominate into the late 2030s. That is the pattern which I see when looking at the MEI, and the complete MEI of 1872 to the present times.

          There will be warm interludes of several years interspersed within the predominantly cool trend. This will be similar to the cool trend of the late 1940s through to the late 1970s with the potential that this cool trend will go deeper than the 1950s/70s cool trend because of this extra special deep solar trend.

  1. which is just weather -and definitely not a sign of a colder climate…

    (you might look at the arctic sea ice, which is still melting along an arc off siberia)

    • Or you might look too arctic sea ice overall, which began refreezing in mid September, as usual. See http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ A broader view is usually employed when studying climate. A narrow view, such as your comment, is usually employed when studying weather. But looking at the broader view of cold weather over nearly all of Europe and parts of Northern Africa, as shown in the surface temperature chart, perhaps there is a climate ingredient.

      Why are you so dogmatic Griff?

      • “Why are you so dogmatic Griff?”

        brain of a Chihuahua….

        His handlers told him to PANIC about Arctic sea ice.. and it all he can do.

        Deliberately DENYING the massive benefits of more normal level of Arctic sea ice.

        Not only is the Arctic land surface greening, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)

        The drop in sea ice, slightly, toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.

        https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

        The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.

        https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola

        Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s. Whales cannot swim on ice. !

        https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/

        Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.

        This is all GREAT NEWS, wouldn’t you agree, griff !

        • It’s not great news to the Marxists who walk among us. The Left consider fossil fuels to be the lifeblood of Capitalism and must be strangled, or as they euphamistically say, ‘phased out’.

          The extinction of whales would be a mere casualty, a sacrifice for the collective good.

          (I used to be a Marxist, this is exactly how they view fossil fuels)

        • Well, see, here’s the problem, Fred250: some people think that “desert” means no snow or cold or much in the way of rain. Quite the opposite is true: the Atacama Desert in Chile, the highest elevation desert anywhere, has regular episodes of snow, and is quite cold during the Chilean winter. There have been several episodes of snow up to 3 feet deep in the inhabited elevations in Chile, requiring aid from the government to get food and heating equipment to those people.

          The Atlas Mountains in Morroco have regular snowfalls in the Morrocan winter, and they do have ski resorts there, too, so snow up there is not unusual. But snow falling and sticking in the Sahara below the mountains is unusual and has been repeatedly happening for several years.

          Snow in the Saudi peninsula is not unusual, but snow in Kuwait fell in 2016 for the first time in recorded history: https://www.middleeasteye.net/fr/news/snow-falls-kuwait-first-time-ever-1565913282

          The point is that things are changing and ignoring those changes, just dismissing them as odd weather, is a bad idea. Once is an event. A couple of times are maybe not just an event. But every year, means something is changing.

      • Grif has either forgotten or never heard of the Roman cold periods, which occurred repeatedly in Europe. That’s on record, y’know. Warming periods are always followed by cold periods.

        Continuing south, Desprat et al. (2003) studied the climatic variability of the last three millennia in northwest Iberia via a high-resolution pollen analysis of a sediment core retrieved from the central axis of the Ria de Vigo in the south of Galicia. There they detected “an alternation of three relatively cold periods with three relatively warm episodes.” In order of their occurrence, these periods are described by them as the “first cold phase of the Subatlantic period (975-250 BC),” which was “followed by the Roman Warm Period (250 BC-450 AD),” which was followed by “a successive cold period (450-950 AD), the Dark Ages,” which “was terminated by the onset of the Medieval Warm Period (950-1400 AD),” which was followed by “the Little Ice Age (1400-1850 AD), including the Maunder Minimum (at around 1700 AD),” which “was succeeded by the recent warming (1850 AD to the present).”

        In light of these findings, Desprat et al. conclude that “a millennial-scale climatic cyclicity over the last 3000 years is detected for the first time in NW Iberia paralleling global climatic changes recorded in North Atlantic marine records (Bond et al., 1997; Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Chapman and Shackleton, 2000).” Considering that the same findings are reported by the other studies described above, the establishment of the Modern Warm Period in Europe over the course of the past century or so is seen to be nothing more than the most recent manifestation of the warming phase of this ever-recurring cycle of climate, which is totally unrelated to the coincidental historical increase in the air’s CO2 content.
        Source: Reference
        Desprat, S., Goñi, M.F.S. and Loutre, M.-F. 2003. Revealing climatic variability of the last three millennia in northwestern Ibera using pollen influx data. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 213: 63-78.

        So we’ve been in a brief, if pleasant warm period, which has had several episodes of really, really cold and brutal weather, and although it may be a bit soon for another prolonged cold period, we’ll get one. .. and no one will really be prepared for it.

        • Grif has either forgotten or never heard of the Roman cold periods

          Neither have I. I thought the Roman Period was supposed to be warm, with all those tunics and togas and no coats. You always see the barbarians much better prepared for the Middle Ages cold. No wonder they prevailed.

        • Rome itself had recurring episodes of the river freezing over. They figured out how to heat their (far too expensive) homes by building the first floor with a space underneath where fires could be started to heat the flooring. “Rome” also refers to the entire expanse of the Empire, which included the British Isles. If it happened during the Imperial Age, it was ROMAN (cough, cough), so no matter what terminology current science uses to label them, they were ROMAN,. PERIOD. And being Romans, they didn’t like having cold feet.
          If you can’t see the silliness in their attitude, you’re not paying attention.

          • No. Rome had not recurring episodes of the Tiber freezing, unless you think that an occasion or two every couple of centuries is recurrence. And that is weather, not climate.

          • That’s incorrect, Javier. I took two years of Latin in high school, and a requirement to pass the class was a report on something concerning Rome as well as the rest of the empire. The Tiber froze more than once. It wasn’t considered unusual, simply reported as an event.

          • I took two years of Latin in high school

            That surely makes you an expert in ancient Rome’s climate.

            The freezing of the river Tiber was such a rare occasion that historians like Titus Livius (Livy) mentioned it. Hubert Lambert gives just four dates for the entire Roman history. I just don’t think you have good data on that.

            “…the last few centuries before Christ register some general rise of temperature, representing a recovery from the coldest conditions of the onset of the Sub-Atlantic climatic period, which had culminated in great glacier advances in the Alps (H EUBERGER 1968) at various times between about 900 and 300 B.C. and apparently a lowered snow line in the high mountains in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Near East and in equatorial Africa. A number of severe winters had been reported in ancient Rome in that time (with mentions of the Tiber being frozen in 398, 396, 271 and 177 B.C.), and the Roman agricultural writers SASERNA (father and son) wrote that in the last century B.C. cultivation of the olive and the vine were spreading farther north in Italy where in the previous century winters had been too cold for transplants to survive (WARNER ALLEN 1961).”
            Climate: Present, Past and Future
            Volume 2 Climatic History and the Future
            H. H. Lamb
            pg. 424. 2011 edition by Routledge.

            Perhaps you have better sources.

          • That surely makes you an expert in ancient Rome’s climate.

            Oh dear, there goes Javier being rude again. And this time to the ladies who post on this blog.

            To those ladies (present and no doubt future), here’s what happened when your offending gillipollas constructed one of THE most ludicrously stupid logical failures the little guy could muster, and then afterward attempted an audaciously addled recovery:

            https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/09/part-of-the-heat-is-coming-from-beneath-our-feet/#comment-3080038

          • Well, no, javier, it means that I know something about events reported in history, which you unfortunately ignore.

            Reported historical events are just as important as science. They do, in fact, frequently contain information about something that might otherwise go unnoticed because no modern scientists were around measuring things and making notes.

        • Thank you:

          At the museum in Paestum, down the coast from Naples, Italy, the curators have been tracking the retreat of forests during cold periods, where more firewood was needed for long cold winters, and the times of forest advance, less firewood needed during short mild winters. The time periods that the folks at Paestum mention are almost identical to the ones you cite. Climate is indeed cyclical, and seems to have something to do with cyclical changes in total solar emissivity as implied by sunspot numbers.

      • You guys are overlooking the fact that Al Gore is vacationing in Italy.

        I just made that up, but it is possibly true.

        • The Gore effect is not yet fully understood. In this particular case I believe he was on a private jet in the vicinity. There are some reports that Al had had a very large dinner (& breakfast & lunch) the night before and, as is typical for long Gore flights it was necessary to empty the waste storage while in flight (and the prevailing winds could have carried all, or a portion of, the waste into Italy).

          There are other reports that the plane actually refueled in Italy.

          Given the variables involved, it is not possible to determine the exact cause of the snow. Although it is obvious that, as always, Al Gore is involved either directly or peripherally. More study is needed, but in the meantime, to be safe, we should somehow limit, or tax, Gore (think of the children).

    • At what point does “the coldest September for 50 years” stop being weather and become climate, griff? Is this before or after the hottest/driest/wettest/stormiest/calmest January etc for x, y, z years stops being climate and becomes weather.

      OK, so an extreme September in Italy is weather. In exactly the same way that melting arctic sea ice is weather and Californian fires are the result of fuel load+ignition. You can’t pick and choose which events, or non-events, that happen to suit your limited scientific understanding, are weather and which are climate.

      • ‘At what point does “the coldest September for 50 years” stop being weather and become climate, griff? ”

        1. When it covers a large area, say bigger than a continent
        2. When it persists for a few years.

        • Well, it’s persisting where I live, Steven, so I think that it is becoming a trend of some kind.

          That means that we should pay attention to it, don’t you think?

        • Mosh shows us all that the warm blob over Siberia that caused early Arctic sea ice melt, was just weather..

          Better tell griffool. !

        • Logically how
          long should we expect to see snow in southern Italy (and North Africa, as it would appear from the graphic) with galloping global warming, and an Arctic that’s warming 3 times as fast as global average! With Artic enhancement, where did the cold air come from that set new cold temperature records in Illinois and Ohio January 2019? Freeze sharks off Massachusetts and immobile turtles in the Gulf of Mexico?

          Will I be told that a wall of mile high ice approaching Fargo, ND is just weirding weather

          • Okay, Gary, I did a very rough chart backtracking the cold periods and warm periods (in the Wisconsin “ice age”) that led up to the Nebraskan cold period.

            I found that before the Nebraskan period, the warm periods were consistently longer than the cold periods, and then WHAMMO!!!! The Nebraskan cold period started up and lasted 140,000 years (lots of ice sheets, no doubt), and after that, the cold periods were longer than the warming periods, including the current warm period which has lasted about 18,000 +/- years. That has all been combined now into one prolonged squawk – er, history as the Wisconsin period.

            400,000 years ago, in Germany, a tribe of H. Heidelbergensis had set up a campsite near Schoningen to hunt horses and other prey animals, and do the carcass cleanup, and left behind two-ended javelins in both adult and child sizes. Therefore, it is quite probable that the weather was warm and friendly, and the length of time it took to get into a climate of prolonged cold that did not go away. It went from the Waalian warm period to the Nebraskan cold period (all collectivized now into the Wisconsin epoch in the USA, or period or whatsis). H. Heidelbergensis remains have also been found in Spain, in case anyone is wondering. They died out around 125,000 years ago.

            If someone has a problem with that, will, I don’t know what to tell you, other than have a nice day.

    • And the rest of the Arctic sea ice is increasing.

      Poor griffool. !

      SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE . !!!

      Beaufort, Canadian Archipelago, Greenland sea.. strong growth.

    • Ohhh, grief.. so predictable. If it had been 0.001º warmer than average you would be screaming “further evidence of global heating and we’re all gonna die”, but a 10-15 degree drop is just weather. Yet another Ralph Wiggum moment. Keep it up, you reinforce your reputation on this blog with every post.

      • It was just a couple of days ago that griff was proclaiming that an alleged high temperature record (still not confirmed) in Siberia as being proof of global warming.

    • You may also have a look at New Zealand, with unusual felt -20°C and snow in spring there.
      Also you may look at Germany with snow in Black Forest and in the central mountains and often groundfrost since July ’til now in several German regions.
      Not to forget the unusal high snowcover in the Andes up to seven meters.
      Btw., Arctic ice is growing….

      • Krishna, you left out the massive snowfall in Norway in June this year, so deep and so bad that it blocked the entire northbound highway (don’t remember which highway number, sorry) and those big tractors with shovels (which usually dig up dirt and coal), had to be sent to clear the highways so that people could drive safely.

        I always note the first snowfall in my area. It has been on Hallowe’en (Oct. 31) consistently for 5 years now, and I have photos of it. I also get photos of the last snowfall of the winter season, which seems to be consistently April 30 up to now. Sometimes, it’s been light, and sometimes, it’s quite heavy, wet and deep – up to six inches.

        It seems to be a trend now, otherwise I would not bother keeping records of it. But there is early snow up in Wisconsin and west of me over by the area from Rockford to Stockton this year, which is a first.

    • In Griffiepoo’s mind, unusually hot weather: strong evidence for GW. Unusually cold weather: merely weather.

    • Now this is funny, griff is often pointing to record high temperatures as being proof of global warming.

    • The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2020 was +0.57 deg. C, up from from the August, 2020 value of +0.43 deg. C. According to Dr. RoySpencer.

      Southern California was very hot this September, but unlike others, I wouldn’t be foolish enough to extrapolate Southern California’s September to the rest of the world.

      Yes, the condition of the sea ice is terrible.

      • No, the condition of Arctic sea ice is that it has recovered somewhat from the extremes of the LIA and late 1970s. It is still in the top 5-10% of the Holocene…… LOTS of Arctic sea ice.

        Noted that UAH has Australia at + 0.92..

        … yes, there is no doubt that it has been an absolutely glorious early spring. 🙂

    • “Unusually cold days are just weather. Unusually hot days are cause by climate change.” Just think how cold the cold days would be without that global climate warming change thingy?

    • DHR, I’m guessing that by now the grapes are safely stored in large barrels, where an exothermic process known as fermentation keeps them warm. I think it will be OK.

    • DHR-san:

      The Italian tomato harvest was ruined this year due to cold/wet September weather, and will be the worst harvest in over 20 years; about 40% below average…

      The tomato crop started out great in July and August, but the cold September weather destroyed it.

      Retail canned tomato prices will soon be increasing.

      It’s cold that kills crops and people—not life-giving warmer temperatures..

      • Yes, and for several years now – not consecutive years, BTW – France has had frosts that destroyed the wine harvest, which is a crime against civilization, for Pete’s sake!

        The fact that “weather” is unstable and can’t be controlled is something that doesn’t jive with griff and others, but the idea that repeated oddball weather events might be a warning to us that a real change is underway is even worse.

        Having to turn the furnace on in October is pretty “normal” timing where I live. Having to do it on September 9th is NOT normal. If it repeats itself next year, it may indicate a trend. I’ll have to redo my household budget, fer Pete’s sakes!

    • Not really, AFAIK this year the grape harvest was done a bit earlier than usual, so well before the drop in temperature.
      So, we Italians hope that all of you who are craving for our wine, can finally get it 😉

    • https://www.catalannews.com/business/item/harvest-losses-of-up-to-80-wine-cellars-struggle-with-fungi-and-climate-change
      He hopes and expects a better year in 2021, so his main long-term concern is not only mildew, which has caused losses of “up to 80%” in his case, but climate change.

      Although he says mildew is only “probably” to do with climate change, one of the main agricultural trade unions in Catalonia, Unió de Pagesos, takes it for granted on the grounds that lately the land is experiencing more heatwaves, long droughts and prolonged rain episodes, leading to wet conditions.

      “In the first six months of the year we had more than the average rainfall for the whole year,” says Albet.

      But

      https://www.catalannews.com/business/item/extraordinarily-late-rice-harvest-begins-in-delta-de-l-ebre
      The crop yield is also expected to be 10% smaller than past years, which could possibly end up increasing prices. Farmers estimate only between 120,000 and 130,000 tons of rice will be collected, down from 2019’s 140,000 tons, due to a number of factors including the effects of Gloria, the week-long storm that battered the country last January, as well as spring rainfall and the pandemic.

      So luckily
      https://www.catalannews.com/society-science/item/catalonia-2050-3-degrees-warmer-and-a-40-decline-in-rainfall

      By the mid-21st century, Catalonia as a whole will be at least an average of 3 degrees Celsius warmer and experience an astounding 40% decline in rainfall.

      These are the main conclusions of a Catalan Meteorological Service report on climate change projections between 2021 and 2050 based on a high-emissions scenario, which also points to the Pyrenees mountains region as the area set to be most affected by these forecasts.

      According to these predictions, summer-like weather will end up extending from late spring to early fall, and maximum highs could increase by 4ºC while lows could rise by 3ºC.

  2. spaceweather.com/

    SUNSPOTS BREAK A SPACE AGE RECORD: Monday, Dec. 16, 2019
    Solar Minimum is becoming very deep indeed. Over the weekend, the sun set a Space Age record for spotlessness. So far in 2019, the sun has been without sunspots for more than 270 days, including the last 33 days in a row. Since the Space Age began, no other year has had this many blank suns.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/16/its-official-we-are-in-a-deep-solar-minimum/#comment-2872470

    “How does that effect climate?”

    Here is how:

    The failed very-scary catastrophic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis, which ASSUMES climate is driven primarily by increasing atmospheric CO2 caused by fossil fuel combustion, will be clearly disproved because fossil fuel combustion and atmospheric CO2 will continue to increase, CO2 albeit at a slower rate, while global temperatures cool significantly.

    This global cooling scenario has already happened from ~1940 to 1977, a period when fossil fuel combustion rapidly accelerated and atmospheric temperature cooled – that observation was sufficient to disprove the global warming hypo many decades ago.

    Contrary to the global warming hypothesis, CO2 is clearly NOT the primary driver of century-scale global climate, the Sun is – the evidence is conclusive and we’ve known this for decades.
    _________________________

    In June 2015 Dr. Nir Shaviv gave an excellent talk in Calgary – his slides are posted here:
    friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Calgary-Solar-Climate_Cp.pdf
    Slides 24-29 show the strong relationship between solar activity and global temperature.

    Here is Shaviv’s 22 minute talk from 2019 summarizing his views on global warming:
    Science Bits, Aug 4, 2019
    sciencebits.com/22-minute-talk-summarizing-my-views-global-warming

    At 2:48 in his talk, Shaviv says:
    “In all cores where you have a high-enough resolution, you see that the CO2 follows the temperature and not vice-versa. Namely, we know that the CO2 is affected by the temperature, but it doesn’t tell you anything about the opposite relation. In fact, there is no time scale whatsoever where you see CO2 variations cause a large temperature variation.”

    At 5:30 Shaviv shows a diagram that shows the close correlation of a proxy of solar activity with a proxy for Earth’s climate. More similar close solar-climate relationships follow.

    Shaviv concludes that the sensitivity of climate to increasing atmospheric CO2 is 1.0C to 1.5C/(doubling of CO2), much lower than the assumptions used in the computer climate models cited by the IPCC, which greatly exaggerate future global warming.

    At this low level of climate sensitivity, there is NO dangerous human-made global warming or climate change crisis.
    __________________________

    Willie Soon’s 2019 video reaches similar conclusions – that the Sun is the primary driver of global climate, and not atmospheric CO2.
    wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/15/global-warming-fact-or-fiction-featuring-physicists-willie-soon-and-elliott-bloom/

    Willie Soon’s best points start at 54:51, where he shows the Sun-Climate relationship and provides his conclusions.

    There is a strong correlation between the Daily High Temperatures and the Solar Total Irradiance (54:51 of the video):

    … in the USA (55:02),

    Canada (55:16),

    and Mexico (55:20).
    _________________________

    woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/offset:-1360

    Solar Total Irradiance is now close to 1360 W/m2, close to the estimated lows of the very-cold Dalton and Maunder Minimums. Atmospheric temperatures should be cooling in the near future – maybe they already are.

    We know that the Sun is at the end Solar Cycle 24 (SC24), the weakest since the Dalton Minimum (circa 1800), and SC25 is also expected to be weak. We also know that both the Dalton Minimum and the Maunder Minimum (circa 1650-1700) were very cold periods that caused great human suffering.

    I wrote in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald that stated:

    “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

    That prediction was based of the end of the Gleissberg Cycle of ~80-90 years, dated from 1940, the beginning of the previous global cooling period from ~1940 to 1977.

    Since about 2013, I have published that global cooling will start by 2020 or earlier. Cooling will start sporadically, in different locations.

    Planting of grains in the Great Plains of North America was one month late in both 2018 and 2019. Summer was warm in 2018 and the grain crop was successful. However spring was late and wet in 2019, and much of the huge USA corn crop was never planted due to wet ground; then the summer was cool and winter snow came early, resulting in huge crop failures.

    Thousands of record cold temperatures were experienced in North America in October 2019, and temperatures in Britain and parts of northern Europe were also extremely cold.

    Recent analysis of the 2019 harvest failure is here:

    THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
    By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
    wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/

    GROWING SEASON CHALLENGES FROM START TO FINISH
    By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, Co–‐chief Meteorologist at Weatherbell.com, Nov 18, 2019
    thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/growing-season-challenges-from-start-to-finish.pdf

    Bundle up – it’s getting colder out there.

    • @Allan MacRae

      In June 2015 Dr. Nir Shaviv gave an excellent talk in Calgary – his slides are posted here:
      friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Calgary-Solar-Climate_Cp.pdf
      Slides 24-29 show the strong relationship between solar activity and global temperature.

      Interesting presentation. But which slide presents compelling proof for “global temperature” correlation? I did not see it. Perhaps I missed it. Slide 24? That is labelled “winter severity in London and Paris”. Hardly global.

    • I wonder aloud – is this probable global cooling due to solar minima… do those at the helm of the Climate Cult scare realize their scare tactic is about to blow up in their collective faces – and have thus transferred the scam to doing plandemics?

      The scare you can induce with deadly disease fears is far more tangible and powerful than global warming nonsense – if your ultimate goal is authoritarian, marxist domination and also depopulation….

      interesting compilation of all earth ground stations shows last 4-5 years lower than average:

      http://temperature.global/?fbclid=IwAR1mhZfsFG7WnZYOjTznx_Yvy-_MguXETmvV-cioDlJGGsEqNoWppwAMrUo

    • Since about 2013, I have published that global cooling will start by 2020 or earlier.

      Sure, it started in 2016. That’s why 2020 is on its way to be “only” second warmest year in our lives.

      • Which realistically is only 41 years, the only period of time in which we’ve had worldwide temperature data of consistent quality. Most of the data before 1979 is extrapolated, low quality data and therefore not fit for purpose.

        • That is your opinion. We have plenty of records and proxies so we can be pretty sure the second half of the second decade of the twenty first century has the warmest years on average of any half decade for the past 600 years at least.

          The planet has been warming for centuries. It naturally follows that we are at the warmest in centuries. Perhaps long-term cooling will start this decade but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. Being scared from cooling at this point is silly.

          • 600 years. Wow.
            Glaciers retreat… people hike up and look around… find remains of forest – and human hunters.
            Also, cooling doesn’t have to be a dominant feature of a climate to be scary. Untimely cold WEATHER can kill – immediately or through starvation.
            The internet called, it asked if you could please try harder or stop trying. Thanks!

          • Yes it is my opinion, but it’s based on more accurate and better quality data than your opinion is. Proxies and extrapolations are not as accurate, or as good quality, as measured data is. So in reality it’s better science. Many times good science is acknowledging that we don’t have enough good information to be able to make an accurate determination with good confidence. But modern science frequently deviates from that path.

          • Yes it is my opinion, but it’s based on more accurate and better quality data than your opinion is.

            But I didn’t say it was my opinion.
            The Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years of the National Research Council convened and thoroughly researched the evidence in 2006.
            They made a 161-pages report titled: Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
            Their conclusion is:
            “It can be said with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries. This statement is justified by the consistency of the evidence from a wide variety of geographically diverse proxies.”

            As much as I value your opinion, I value the opinion of the Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years of the National Research Council a lot more, as I know they truly reviewed the issue in detail.

            I also think, and this is my opinion, that their finding can be extended a couple of centuries more, as we know the LIA was taking place already in the 14th century. It is hard to think we would call the Little Ice Age a period warmer than the present.

            I also tend to disconnect when people start talking about good science and bad science. There’s good and bad scientists. Science is just knowledge. The product of the scientific activity. There’s no bad or good science as there is no bad or good knowledge, just ignorance as opposed to knowledge.

      • Patience, grasshopper! I prefer predictions that look forward in time. Much more difficult. 🙂
        Cooling will initially be sporadic, as I have written many times over the years.

        According to NOAA and today’s GWPF, La Nina has arrived.
        thegwpf.com/la-nina-is-here-what-will-it-do-to-global-temperatures/

        Told you in August 2020, earlier as well (Published 2002, updated 2013 and 2019 paper and … ):

        wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
        Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold. [now minus 0.8C]
        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
        https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

        THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
        By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
        wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/

  3. I saw this first on Electroverse from Cap Allon. It’s a site I look at frequently, substantially because of the beautiful photos that Cap finds. This one is no exception. Whatever Electroverse is, or isn’t, it has a feeling for art.

  4. At the same time, Scandinavia enjoys some unusually mild temperatures and it appears to stay that way for at least another week.

    • One day late you can see which places are warmer than usual or colder than usual here:
      https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/
      Scroll down to the first large map.

      Southwestern Europe has been colder than usual these last days, Northeastern Europe has been warmer, as are the Western US. The alternation between colder and warmer areas is typical of mid-latitudes due to the Jet Stream.

      This is just weather, but La Niña will probably bring a colder than average early winter to Western Europe, dry in the North and wet in the South.

  5. Off topic- sorry- but this item is worth reading on the Yale Climate Connections site.

    The title of the article is: “The evidence is compelling on human activity as the principal cause of global warming ”

    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/the-evidence-is-compelling-on-human-activity-as-the-principal-cause-of-global-warming/

    “….the global scientific community has confirmed, by detailed analyses using computer models of how our planet works, that the only plausible explanation for the warming is the emissions of greenhouse gases by humans.”

    Detailed analysis of models? Isn’t this a form of Platonism? That is, if you have a good model- then you have no need of REALITY- just analyze the model- which is the ultimate reality in their minds.

    • Joseph,
      I see that the article is by Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, and Richard Richels | Friday, September 25, 2020

      Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. He served as convening lead author for multiple chapters and the Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through 2014 and was vice-chair of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment.

      Henry Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management, Emeritus, in the MIT Sloan School of Management and former co-director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is focused on the integration of the natural and social sciences and policy analysis in application to the threat of global climate.

      Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). He served as lead author for multiple chapters of the IPCC in the areas of mitigation, impacts and adaptation from 1992 through 2014. He also served on the National Assessment Synthesis Team for the first U.S. National Climate Assessment.

    • “It is no longer controversial that warming has been established: It’s been proven using a long time-series of high-quality scientific data collected through well-understood measurement techniques.”

      Scientific data? Established? So, it’s “settled”? Techniques like those awesome tree ring thermometers?

      “the only plausible explanation for the warming is the emissions of greenhouse gases by humans”

      Ergo, it’s settled and established?

      “Those who might wish that warming were caused by something other than humanity’s use of fossil fuels have never proven another possible cause of that warming: If not fossil fuels, then what? No response to that question can be authoritatively answered and proven.”

      So, if it’s not proven that there’s another cause- then that’s proof that it’s human caused from CO2 emissions? I can envision a murder trial. If the defense attorney can’t prove that somebody other than his client is guilty- then his client is guilty?

      “a climate projection must consider accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that are “forcing” a change in that relationship.”

      Sure, we’ll just assume that to be true- and by now, it’s virtually scripture so who’d dare to deny it? how dare you?

      “climate models can provide estimates of what the global temperature would have been with and without the actual human activities and emissions”

      Wow, awesome- with such estimates we can plan to spend tens of trillions to change everything about our civilization.

      “Why use so many models? Because each model on its own replicates the workings of such a complex climate system, as illustrated in Figure 1. Each model attempts to characterize and quantify as many connections across as many climate variables as possible, thereby mimicking how the planet’s climate actually works. Ensembles of model studies capture the implications of different methods used by the analysis teams, thereby exploiting the power of that diversity.”

      So, why just have just dozens of models- have hundreds, have thousands- the more models, the closer to the truth, right?

      “The bottom line is that scientists cannot explain the historical record without including human influences.”

      So, they see correlations and draw conclusions. Not much of a convincing SCIENTIFIC argument.

    • Using models that assume humans drive climate change to prove that humans cause climate change. The old UN IPCC trick.

  6. Well, as long as I wear my trusty mask, which I have named “George”, I will be protected from cooling.
    Or, at least my face will be. I have had George, a simple mask, the type often given out and meant to be thrown away after one use ever since the maskdemic© began. He has become like a trusty, long-time friend.

  7. THIS IS NOT THE COLDEST SEPTEMBER IN 50 YEARS IN ITALY. The local cold shot this week may be a record for the month, coldest so early, similar to what happened in the northern plains, but this certainly isnt the coldest September on record there. It may be the coldest for the period since its at the end of the month means it is, but that is a cherry pick.
    Here is what Italy had for the month most of the land of my forefathers was above normal
    https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/analysis/cdas-all?d=europe_wide&p=tmp2m_anom_mtd_back_c

    IT IS CERTAINLY NOT THE COLDEST SEPTEMBER IN 50 YEARS, Coldest end in some places, perhaps. In fact you choose. 1 day and if its that cold, and the month as a whole is above normal, can you imagine how warm it was much of the month ( which it was.. Alarmist could have been using the Euro warmth if they chose but they were too focused on hurricane name games). Peace

    • “but they were too focused on hurricane name games”
      Joe,
      I agree. To include short lived mid-ocean storms such as Tropical Storm Vicky is bad enough but when cold cored cyclones forming off the NE coast such as Kyle get included as “Tropical Storms” just because of geography and with no regard for basic meteorology then this is very clear evidence of padding the naming system.

    • At last, some sanity! This article is not true and yet everyone seems to accept and believe it because they want to.
      I was in that region the week before and it was very hot – in fact, I think September will be warmer than average because there were very many hot days in September this year.
      Believe what you want but the facts will then confound you. Or do you prefer to believe?

    • According to Polar Portal DK the SMB of Greenland this season ranks #23 out of 40 years. So I would say yes. Pretty normal SMB.

  8. The Alps have had some early snow, catching off guard some 6000 French sheep and cows who were enjoying the last of what the high Alpages had to offer.

    https://www.saintsorlindarves.com/fr/il4-office,hiver_p180-webcams.aspx

    Not unprecedented, but rare enough for it to be unexpected. 2015, 16, and 17 all had some September snow somewhere in France, the difference being this year the quantity of snow in some places has been substantial, and you would have to go back 20 years to find the same weather phenomenon.

    In other “wacky weather” factoids, the town of Nancy in eastern France recorded, in a short 11 day period 2020, it’s most hottest September day (34.5°c 94°f), and it’s coldest (9.5°c 49°f). (nearly 100 years of records)

    Here you can see the inhabitants of Nancy (Nancéiens) suffering under the strain of a 25°c temperature shift.

    https://pv.viewsurf.com/1614/Nancy-Place-Stanislas-Hotel-de-ville?i=NjI3Njp1bmRlZmluZWQ

    • Similar to the huge temp variations that happened in the US Northern Rockies earlier this month. It’s my semi-educated understanding that La Ninas tend to have larger amplitude, “sticky” weather patterns (i.e., more extremes with less “zonal” or progressive weather patterns) – that seems to be true so far this year here in Oregon.

    • Hey, Nancy!
      Nice spires on your cathedral; how about helping a poor boy out with your Catholic catechism!
      Seriously, though, it looks idyllic and as long as few if any grapes are harmed enjoy the hint of winter!

    • July 15th 1981 was a pretty amazing weather event in the Alps. Thousands of sheep were on the high pastures and huge numbers were lost when it snowed right down to the Alpine valleys below 1000m.

      I think we can all agree that that extreme event did not trigger a little Ice Age in the past 40 years.

      So why should this weather event be any different?

  9. This cold needs to be concentrated over Paris and London to make my day, week, month, year, decade. They deserve it most, ,……..after Ed Markey’s state.

  10. Bring forth the cycles from the 4th dimension, i.e. not in the 2 dimensional playbook of Global Warming Inc. or the 3 dimensional world of most of the rest.

    1) La Nina (short cycle)
    2) Solar minimum as part of multicycle decline (medium to long run cycles)
    3) PDO temperature anomaly (medium cycle)
    4) North Atlantic temperature anomaly (long cycle)
    5) Weather, for the exclamation point on top

  11. We’re going to see a lot of cold weather records being broken for the next 2 years during the current strong La Niña cycle, and also over the next 30 years as the PDO and AMO both reenter their respective 30-year cool cycles.

    Global oceans are already rapidly cooling as can be seen in NOAA’s global SST anomaly map (btw, almost all they gray areas should actually be blue but NOAA is just trying to hide the extent of the cooling)

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

    • This depiction of the world greatly exaggerates the areas as they approach the poles. Visually, the areas of ocean warmth exceed the areas of ocean cooling. In reality, more ocean volume is cooling rather than warming.

  12. Don’t you love the way that climate scimediatitians now refer to a cooling region as a “warming hole”.
    We’ll here’s another one in the eastern Pacific ocean.
    (But no – not really significant to global climate at all)

    https://i0.wp.com/www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDYOC001.gif

    https://i1.wp.com/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/heat-last-year.gif

    https://i1.wp.com/www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_jsd.gif

  13. Purely coincidentally Academia have sent me a link to a 2015 AGU published paper , now out of paywall, on sea surface conditions during the medieval climate anomaly ;
    https://www.academia.edu/24009416/Exceptional_ocean_surface_conditions_on_the_SE_Greenland_shelf_during_the_Medieval_Climate_Anomaly?email_work_card=view-paper
    The title is in the link and it is a Norwegian- U of Colorado collaboration .
    Given some of the comments above I thought that the Abstract might be of interest and of some relevance :
    -“Abstract
    Diatom inferred 2900 year long records of August sea surface temperature (aSST) and April sea ice concentration (aSIC) are generated from a marine sediment core from the SE Greenland shelf with a special focus on the interval ca. 870 -1910 Common Era (C.E.) reconstructed in subdecadal temporalresolution. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1000 and 1200 C.E. represents the warmest ocean surface conditions of the SE Greenland shelf over the late Holocene (880 B.C.E. (before the Common Era) to1910 C.E.). It was characterized by abrupt, decadal to multidecadal changes, such as an abrupt warming of ~2.4°C in 55years around 1000 C.E. Temperature changes of these magnitudes are rare on the North Atlantic proxy data.Compared to regional air temperature reconstructions, our results indicate a lag of about 50years in ocean surface warming either due to increased freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet or intensified sea ice export from the Arctic as a response to atmosphericwarming at the beginning of the MCA. A cool phase, from 1200–1890 C.E., associated with the Little Ice Age, ends with the rapid warming of aSST and diminished aSIC in the early twentieth century. The results show that the periods of warm aSST and aSIC minima are coupled with solar minima suggesting that solar forcing possibly amplified by atmospheric forcing have been behind the variability of surface conditions on the SE Greenland over the last millennium.The results indicate that the SE Greenland shelf is a climatologically sensitive area where extremely rapid changes are possible and highlights the importance of the area under the present warming conditions.”-
    So in the academic sphere the possibility of solar coupling is , or at least has been, not discounted .

  14. Are you sure it’s been the coldest September, rather than the coldest September day?

    Globally, according to UAH, this was the second warmest September in over 40 years, beaten only buy September 2019.

  15. I live in Germany, and don’t understand this surreal alarmism. Italy NEVER AND NEVER did experience its coldest September in 50 years.

    This is, with all due respect, absolutely ridiculous. You just need to compare the September month im Milan for 2020:

    https://www.wetteronline.de/?pcid=pc_rueckblick_data&pid=p_rueckblick_diagram&sid=StationHistory&diagram=true&iid=16080&gid=16080&month=11&year=2020&metparaid=TXLD&period=4&ireq=true

    with its 2010 edition:

    https://www.wetteronline.de/?pcid=pc_rueckblick_data&pid=p_rueckblick_diagram&sid=StationHistory&diagram=true&iid=16080&gid=16080&month=11&year=2010&metparaid=TXLD&period=4&ireq=true

    and you quickly understand the difference between a cool year and a few snowflakes during a warm year.

    *
    By the way, Spain experienced during June 2019 a REAL cooling, with places in some June days at 30 °C below the usual temperature. Moron de la Frontera near Sevilla in Andalucia is a very good example.

    *
    Exactly in the same vein, it is pure nonsense to elevate some little frosty nights in the German Black Forrest to a big cooling in Germany’s September, as is propagated here since days by the strange German Coolista nicknamed ‘Krishna Gans’.

    Germany’s September has shown in several places at least 2 °C over mean. I wrote about that in a previous thread already.

    *
    New Zealand experienced the warmest winter since decades.

    *
    And is the Arctic currently gaining ice: yes of course, what a luck! But this happens every year at the end of September. The question rather is: how much does it gain compared with the years before?

    Here is a comparison of the means for 1981-2010, 2015-2019 and various single years, using absolute values:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-rIi_Ml6yinPkUWPDFPz4VEy9BUX4fZL/view

    If the Arctic really was gaining ice as pretended: why then did 2019 and 2020 not pass at least above the 2015-2019 mean (1981-2010 is far far away from being reached)?

    Even Arctic AND Antarctic together have difficulties to get over that 2015-2019 mean:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YiaEnD5ywRCU4nY9x-OZh1ThLNaC2VNe/view

    (source: SIDADS at colorado.edu)

    *
    Where the heck is there a problem to simply say: yes, it’s warming, OK, but how much?

    Is it really necessary to focus on small snowfall happening a few times per century in Europe here and there?

    Northern CONUS is cooling since years, especially during the winter months. But Europe IS NOT.

    *
    Warming alarmism isn’t good, but… Cooling alarmism is even worse.

    J.-P. D.

  16. Better fly all the kids down to Italy pronto.

    With Global Warming(tm) they may otherwise never know what snow is.

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