India Confirms No Increase in Tropical Cyclones Due to Climate Change

by Vijay Jayaraj

Cyclonic Storm “Fani” as seen on April 30, 2019, as a Category 3 storm approaching India.
Credit: Twitter/@NOAASatellites

One of the chief fears about climate change—or, more specifically, global warming—is that it will generate more frequent and more severe extreme weather events. Observed facts, however, should quiet those fears.

India, one of the key members of the global climate change pact, has reiterated that there is no increase in cyclones due to climate change in the region.

Instead, scientists have found out that there is actually a decrease in cyclone frequency since the year 1950.

This stands in contradiction to the popular mainstream narrative. And with 1.3 billion people in India, and millions in the neighboring countries also heavily affected by the monsoons and regional cyclones, this news brings much relief and exposes the false narrative promoted by the United Nations and many media sources about dangers of increasing cyclones.

In its newly released “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region,” the country has declared that there is no increase in extreme cyclones due to man-made global warming/climate change.

The report read,

“Long-term observations (1891–2018) indicate a significant reduction in annual frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean basin.”

Fig. 1: Annual Frequency of Cyclonic Storm (CS) and Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) between 1891 and 2016. Linear trend lines are indicated by dashed lines—black (1891–2018), blue (1951–2018), red (2000–2018). Also, 10-year running mean is shown by a solid-green line. Source: Extreme Storms, Indian Meteorological Department, Govt. of India.
Published June 13, 2020.

Besides, the report also stated that the mean temperatures in the country in the recent past have not been any different than those during the 1950s.

India represents 1.3 billion people—nearly 18% of world population—not affected by extreme weather events allegedly induced by climate change.

The case of cyclone frequency is no different in the U.S.

Official data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveal that there has been a 50 percent reduction in the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States since the 1930s.

Even the United Nations has explicitly stated that there is no evidence to prove that climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events.

Instead, it says there is a decrease in frequency of cyclones globally.

Fig: 2-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane frequency. Source: climatlas.com

In its special report, the United Nations IPCC states,

“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy.”

For years, climate alarmists have instilled fear of devastation to justify restrictive energy policies.

But the welcome truth is that these claims are false. The fears are baseless. This report from India reaffirms that.

It is time for the mainstream media and the fearmongers to admit that climate change is not driving any increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events.


Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), is a Research Contributor for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.

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34 thoughts on “India Confirms No Increase in Tropical Cyclones Due to Climate Change

  1. I can confirm that with 100%+ accuracy you will lose freedoms and money because of AGW!
    NOBODY knows about the climate, if they tell you they do they are liars.
    Simple, sad, but simple.

  2. The “warming” angle hasn’t worked out very well for Alarmists, so they switched to the “extreme weather” angle.

    • “so they switched to the “extreme weather” angle.”

      And they are LOSING badly on that , as well. !

      • They’re not losing on that.
        Every little localised flooding, can be attributed to “The Climate Emergency”
        Ditto the clucking about the Arctic being ITS HOTTEST EVA!

  3. Questions about temperature and cyclones, hurricanes.
    The article says the mean temperature of India is not much different to the 1950s.
    Surely the mean temperature of India is not the driver of cyclones.
    Q1. What is the critical temperature location for cyclones in India? Land, Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, or is it a vertical thing.
    Q2. Ditto Florida hurricanes

    Thanks in advance

    • Waza, hurricanes.
      It’s not about a critical temperature, it’s about the volume of convection and inability of normal transport mechanisms to be able to move it away. When they are active and rotating they increase in efficiency.

  4. The linear trend lines on figure 1(b) are a perfect illustration of choosing your start points to generate the trend that supports your favoured message.

    Thanks to Mr. Jayaraj, and congratulations for surviving UEA and retaining your objectivity!

  5. But, but but – global warming will increase the severity of cyclones and the lower India graph shows that, if you stand on a chair then lean over at 38.76 degrees holding a mirror above your head you can see a rising trend in the severe cyclonic storms from 2000 onwards.

    The falling trend since 1950 is an anomaly.

    Think of the children

    Send money for more research, chairs and mirrors

    /sarc

  6. ”India Confirms No Increase in Tropical Cyclones Due to Climate Change”

    Probably because there is no real climate change to speak of?

    • “Probably because there is no real climate change to speak of?”

      Yes, the author should probably have qualified that by saying something like “alledged” {Human-caused] climate change, seeing as how there is no evidence demonstrating that humans are causing the climate to change with regard to cyclones and hurricanes or any other weather phenomenon.

      If we give the Alarmists an inch, they will take a mile. Besides, it is unscientific to assume something not in evidence, such as Human-caused climate change.

  7. I am astonished this came out of East Anglia. When will we see the headlines, “It’s much better than we previously thought.” Or am I asking too much of the press?
    You will never hear this science on the ABC for sure, unless they come up with a way to spin it 180″. A month or so back (didn’t make a mental note of the date) I heard them blathering on with their usual lies re the Antarctic and how super warm waters around the Islands leading out to Tierra Del Fuego were further evidence of the impending disaster of global warming….the piece ended in a radio version of small print where they quickly qualified their remarks by saying that the story was of conditions observed in January.
    I got on-line and looked up current SST anomalies and saw exactly what I expected to see…nothing. The whole of the Antarctic was and is below average SSTs or to a lesser degree average. No above average at all. This Jan. heat anomaly was a tiny little spot I had seen it around one Island which lasted about a week and then moved on, as is completely normal and was replaced by below average temp water.
    Now that might seem bad, but here is where it gets dangerously bad, and if I were the minister they would be gone, every one involved in that report would most definitely be looking for a job outside the public services….on the very day of that report the Vostok Antarctic station recorded the coldest Temps ever recorded on planet Earth. It might be difficult to sack em, but imagine the publicity you would get to show their verministic ways and when they fought back you would have an excellent excuse to have wholesale reform of the disgusting sociopathic ABC.
    I say we must get involved in an organized letter writing campaign…this insanity cannot continue, will the people who present this excellent forum consider putting links to various ministers, and news outlets for us to bombard and demand answers from? And what about petitions for us to sign and present to the parliament when we have enough signatures to have it read in Parliament?
    We are not winning because we have done nothing but preach to the converted. We need to proselytize and hold ministers up to ridicule when they lie and speak bullshit like brain-dead mindless children.

    • Nah, Vijay is no longer into science, he’s on a mission from God, along with the other creationists at the Cornwall Alliance, who also believe “that God directly created Adam and Eve, the historical parents of the entire human race”.
      https://cornwallalliance.org/about/cornwall-alliance-statement-of-faith/

      If he was into science, instead of framing this as a “false narrative promoted by the United Nations”, he might have asked: given the oceans are warming, why aren’t more cyclones forming? then attempted to answer it. But as I say he’s no longer into science.

      • Now THAT’S how you do good progressive logic people! This right here is Master Class stuff friends:

        Nah, Vijay is no longer into science, he’s on a mission from God, along with the other creationists at the Cornwall Alliance . . .

        And there you have it, an absolutely spectacularly spurious specimen of the (un)tantalizingly textbook, voraciously vicious, ad hominem attack.

        Well done Loydo . . . well done I say!

        • I wouldn’t call it vicious and I’m glad to see your eagle eye has picked out the one ad hominem out in so many thousasnds of polite, objective, well argued posts. Congrats to you.

          • I’m glad to see your eagle eye has picked out the one ad hominem . . . in so many thousasnds [sic] of polite . . . posts.

            Well there’s nothing like the emanation of Beautiful People justifying their hypocrisy in the evening.

            Tangy . . .

      • Yet more evidence that even Loydo knows that she can’t defend climate science anymore.
        All they can manage are pathetic logical fallacies.

  8. Come along now India, what message are you sending here? Are you trying to lose your developing nation status? Do you WANT to pay carbon taxes? Unless you get back on message you may have to start paying for your space program yourselves.

  9. “India, one of the key members of the global climate change pact, has reiterated that there is no increase in cyclones due to climate change in the region.”

    The North Indian Basin is one of six cyclone basins in the world and not a big source of global cyclone energy. The part of AGW climate change theory that addresses tropical cyclones is found in Knutson 2010 where the large group of co-authors write that “Model projections and the data for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins. It is necessary that empirical studies have a global geographical span”.

    This means that research findings of tropical cyclone trends in a single cyclone basin has no implication for the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones.

    Please see item# 20 here: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/17/abs-temp/

    Also these may be of some interest to those studying tropical cyclones in the AGW context (two links below)

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/

  10. never mind, entire world media is on to this one, with none of the nuances (or celebrations) of The Siberian Times:

    PICS: 22 Jun: Siberian Times: June snow in Siberia’s south as highest-ever Arctic heat is recorded in Russia’s coldest region
    Yakutia, the planet’s coldest permanently inhabited region is under a heatwave with wildfires raging in the Arctic and an all-time record high air temperature spiking at one of two rivals to be the Pole of Cold, in Verkhoyansk.
    This village in the north of Yakutia region (Sakha Republic) – its rival is Oymyakon – set a record for the highest temperature above the Arctic Circle on Saturday 20 June.
    Summer 2020 follows unusually hot and dry spring in swinging between the extremes…

    The hottest ever Arctic weekend had air heating up to 38C, beating the previous record of 37.3C set more than thirty years ago in 1988.
    Last time similarly Saudi temperatures of 38.3C in Yakutia were recorded was in 2010, but this was significantly further south in regional capital Yakutsk.
    Verkhoyansk does hold the Guinness World Record for the greatest temperature range of Earth, from -67.8C in winter and – since this June – to the new record of 38C in summer…
    Daily temperatures in the north of Siberia will exceed the norm by 10 to 12 degrees Celsius this week, chief of whole-Russian weather service Roman Vilfand told RIA Novosti news agency…

    Some 5,000 miles southwest of Yakutia, residents of Khakassia and the Altai mountains woke up with a start as midsummer arrived.
    They had enough snow to build snowmen.
    Many people the world over associate Siberia with cold. But such snowfalls are, in their way, as unusual as the extreme heat in our polar regions.
    Snowfalls were reported at the village of Iogach and by Kokuya mountain next to majestic Lake Teletskoye, at Seminsky mountain pass and on the border between Khakassia and Tuva.
    Leaving Siberia in the oven and the freezer at the same time on the summer solstice.
    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/unexpected-june-snow-in-siberias-south-as-highest-ever-arctic-heat-is-recorded-in-russias-coldest-region/

    AUDIO: 11m15s: 23 Jun: ABC Australia: Temperatures in Siberia hit record high amid heat wave
    On RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly
    Siberia is typically one of the coldest places on earth but a prolonged heatwave in the northern Russian region is alarming scientists…
    Guest: Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director, Copernicus Climate Change Service
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/temperatures-in-siberia-hit-record-high-amid-heat-wave/12382920

    LinkedIn: Samantha Burgess
    https://uk.linkedin.com/in/samantha-burgess-phd-a32b7214

    BBC 9h ago: Arctic Circle sees ‘highest-ever’ recorded temperatures
    The record still needs to be verified…
    Hottest year ever?
    Analysis by Justin Rowlatt, Chief environment correspondent
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53140069

  11. Title should be:

    “India Confirms No Increase in Tropical Cyclones Due to Carbon Dioxide”

  12. If this report were written in 1980 it would probably be claiming that there was a large upward trend in the frequency of cyclones, severe cyclones, and both post-monsoon and pre-monsoon very severe cyclones, because that what the data shows up to 1980. That is the problem with data analysis – it requires a certain objectivity and long term perspective. Sadly most climate scientists, their supporters and many sceptics have neither.

    What this means is the following with regard to climate science (and any other temporal statistical discipline):
    1) If you change your point of reference you can change the result.
    2) You need at least 100 years of good data before you can draw any significant conclusions in climate science.
    3) A trend line is only truly valid for linear trends, not trends that contain broad peaks or troughs in their middle.
    4) If data does have a significant peak or trough in it, a trend line is only valid if its midpoint is set at the location of that largest maximum or minimum of the data, and its range is set so that equal amounts of data are included in the fit on both sides of that turning point. And even that is debatable. The reason is, as I pointed out in my blog (https://climatescienceinvestigations.blogspot.com/2020/05/data-analysis-at-south-pole.html), that even the best fit to a sine wave will have a positive or negative slope unless the data is symmetric over the fitting range. So someone looking at data that is oscillating over time but not increasing overall, will be tricked into thinking they are seeing an upward (or downward) trend if the data is not symmetric within their timeframe, when actually there is no trend at all.

    As for this data, if it shows anything it shows that there is no discernible trend in any of the data that I can see. So, no need to panic.

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