Fast-track scientific study suggests Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan has been controlled

This new science paper suggests  “Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan”. That suggests that similar countermeasures being enacted worldwide might have an effective result.

This paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, but given the speed (or sluggishness) of that process, the authors thought they should do a pre-print first. Sometimes the web can be the harshest peer-review. – Anthony


Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

The entire paper is available here.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND

We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.

METHODS

Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 – February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.

RESULTS

The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from

3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and intervention

The entire paper is available here.


Unrelated to the paper, but relevant and interesting, this WaPo graph comes from Matt Ridley on Facebook.

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167 thoughts on “Fast-track scientific study suggests Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan has been controlled

  1. Its a shame the news media sticks to inducing mass anxiety and depression, rather then giving the people hope and positive news.

    Remdesivir and chloroquine are showing great results, and is being used on americans on the princess ship, the first patient in Lombardy italy has greatly improved after taking remdesivir, same as some other patients in the usa in which the drug was used, chinese doctors say the same… France is testing chloroquine, his is a very old drug and is cheap to buy.

    The us military complex has order Remdesivir for all service members, va patients and all other staff..

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/10/army-signs-agreement-with-drug-giant-gilead-on-experimental-covid-19-treatment/

    Chinese doctor on remdesivir and chloroquine

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    A Pentagon backed company has a vaccine ready and can be tested within weeks. Italy has a vaccine ready for testing as well

    https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/breaking-weve-got-vaccine-says-pentagon-funded-company/163739/

    Minnesota will be using both drugs as well.

    http://m.startribune.com/university-of-minnesota-to-test-three-drugs-for-covid-patients/568766632/

  2. See my latest commentary on some possibly very good news.

    A warming light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel? https://inconvenientfacts.xyz/blog/f/corona-virus-and-a-warming-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel

    My conclusion:
    We will likely know soon if that light at the end of the tunnel is the welcome warming of spring and summer that will bring on a respite from the contagion or an oncoming train. I don’t think that there is a probable middle ground.

    • Gregory

      Very interesting report but how accurate it is we don’t know. This was especially heartening;

      “strong winter seasonality between Dec and April and are undetectable in summer months in temperate regions’

      |Although it does suggest that it is vital that we have an appropriate vaccine in place by next autumn so suitable immunisation can be undertaken before winter.

      • Is this not what might be expected if you seriously lock down a city?
        The virus continues to be transmitted within the containment boundary until the number of potential hosts declines due to immunity. ( This is assuming you are immune after recovering or that you died if you didn’t recover).

        Anyone who ‘leaks’ out of the city while infected still has the potential to start a new Wuhan if they go to another densly populated place.

        It is best to think of a crowded event hall in the same way as a full airplane. Both are chambers where transmission of the virus is more likely to occur compared to staying ouit of the chamber.

        • So why do we see only one Wuhan? When around 5 million residents of Wuhan left before the lock down. This puzzles me to no end.

      • This is a very Northern hemisphere view of the possible benefits of the coming Summer.

        Will travel bans change to ‘no-one enters from a wintery area’?

    • From President Trump’s live presentation:
      Declaring ‘national emergency’ today.
      Walmart and Walgreens to support ‘fast track’ drive-through testing for Wuhan virus. Must complete a symptoms quiz before being directed to a drive-through test site. 24-36 hours to test results.
      Roche approved to use their new automated test method for ‘fast track’ testing.
      Proceed with ‘filling the national strategic oil reserves’ while prices are depressed. Support oil industry.

        • Were they ever refilled after the Maobama Administration drawdown?
          We need to impose tariffs on Saudi and Russky oil that varies with the delta between actual and breakeven price.
          We need to sanction Connecticut’s purchase of Russky LNG.
          We need to sanction California’s purchase of Russky oil.

    • From President Trump’s address:
      The website with the ‘symptoms quiz’ will be ‘up’ by Monday. It will direct authorized folks to drive-through test sites.
      Guidelines for nursing homes being revised to improve care and reduce transmission of viral ‘bugs’. When to limit visitors, etc.
      Next 8 weeks are critical… this too shall pass. Draw on our strengths, learn, and adapt.

    • From President Trump’s address Q&A:
      Relying on the best science and experts to revise the existing system to meet the demands of new challenges. “The last administration had a very big failure with the Swine Flu.”
      Based on emerging numbers, may add UK to travel ban.
      Data sharing with China and others has been very helpful.
      Canadian PM Trudeau’s wife has tested positive for Wuhan virus. No change to US/Canada border/travel..
      Continuing coordination on stranded cruise ships and returning citizens to their respective countries. Some cruise lines taking 60 day ‘pause’ for cruises.
      Dr. Fauci “Travel restrictions and in-country interdiction of transmission vectors will reduce the peak number of infected and percentage of resulting deaths. This is our plan.”
      Cutting though bureaucracy and using the full measure of our labs and services.

    • Well – that’s a coincidence. Just over an hour ago I mentioned to my daughter how strange it was that several countries to the South of China had got off relatively lightly. Australia, Thailand, Malaysia & Singapore were all reporting relatively low case numbers. I did idly speculate that the virus might be sensitive to temperature.

      I ‘m getting quite good at this stuff.

      • You need to normalize for population.

        At the moment, Australia has 8.9 cases per million people. The US has 7.0. Canada, 5.3.
        This virus started in the Nothern Hemisphere, so it is logical the numbers are higher there.

        I don’t think we’ve seen enough spread of this virus to draw any conclusions wrt temperature sensitivity.

    • From Q&A after President Trump’s address:
      A few stupid ‘attack’ questions, deflected and moved on.
      Domestic travel should be self-limiting, based on individuals own health risks and/or apparent symptoms.
      Prior bureaucracy constrained manual test methods have been inadequate to meet increasing demand. New ‘fast track’ drive-through tests will rapidly improve this situation.

    • Gregory, the other half of the planet is going into winter…colder

      …the light in the tunnel could be a freight train for them

    • I noticed this last week. Definitely warmer areas doing better. For example Northern Italy vs Southern Italy. Humidity might play a role. I live in Texas and some cases but not spreading.

    • => Paul H.
      Thanks for the referral & link – a new site for me.
      Flattening the Curve is a great visual and ostensibly what all of the current cancellations/closures/postponements are trying to achieve.
      The final graphic, “Mentions in Media” tells the story of the insidious nature of current mass media to foment panic, rather than to simply disseminate information.

    • Thanks Paul, a good collection of clear and informative graphics.

      In particular the fact that 80% of cases are mild and the more people have already recovered than are currently infected. You seem to see that on MSM headlines for some reason.

    • Interesting visual, however I will balance the death rate, in fact of those out of the virus more than 7% died! (this is mostly influence by China of course). Also I think I can extrapolate that if you are in critical state, you are most likely to die (if all people who died have been in critical care first).

      Also when the first cases are reported in a country the death rate is much higher than 7%. Why I don’t know.

      If you look at Italy for all the people where it is over, I either they recover or die, the rate as yesterday is currently 47% who die! Spain at 27%, France at 87%, Germany 15% and UK 54%, USA 51%. Why so high at the beginning (China now at 4.6% and Korea at 9.2% but where above 20% not long ago)

    • And here is why …
      UK is abandoning testing and quarantine of all except those who are hospitalised in critical condition.
      This will seriously hide extent of pandemic spread in that UK, making numbers look good.
      This is case of ‘hide expansion’.
      40 millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return year on year”, the government’s chief scientific adviser said.
      What happens when virus mutates and immunity is ineffective to a new version?
      However, from the economy point of view it makes perfect sense.
      Unproductive older and weak people will be eliminated, reducing stress on NHS, social services, dementia homes, state pension finances, council housing and any home-care productive members of families can be otherwise gainfully employed.
      Younger, healthier and productive members of population after a week or two of work will gain immunity, go back to work, pay taxes and keep the cunning well paid political class happy.
      If China can do it, the UK could do it even better.
      BTW which age group are you?
      Age mortality rate
      0–9 – 0%
      10–19 – 0.2%
      20–29 – 0.2%
      30–39 – 0.2%
      40–49 – 0.4%
      50–59 – 1.3%
      60–69 – 3.6%
      70–79 – 8.0%
      80+ – 14.8 %

      • The biggest problem with not counting is that we will never know the true universe of people infected. A larger universe means a lower mortality rate for all ranges. A lower mortality rate means, little to nothing to worry about for most people. Perhaps the true mortality rate is 10 to 100 times less than the above rates and somewhat less than the the overall Flu A, B or the least dangerous C. We just won’t know.

        • Mortality Pr million in China is 2.17. For the normal flu mortality is around 200. Hundred times as deadly, and we don’t blink …

          • Yeah, we get it…lots of people die of the flu. But you are basing mortality on total population, not the number of people infected. Also…

            (1) We “blink.” Every year, we’ve got new flu vaccines. We even have a “flu season.” Many hospitals have to set-up temporary facilities to handle bad flu seasons.
            (2) As for that flu vaccine…well, there’s no vaccine for this coronavirus.
            (3) Draconian and unprecedented measures were put into place in China (and still mostly exist) to control the coronavirus. It’s not like they’ve just been going business-as-usual and have only 2.17 per million population dying.
            (4) Far more people die of the flu than terrorist attacks. Should we get rid of airport security and intelligence bureaus?
            (5) Far more people die of the flu than HIV/AIDS. How do you feel about the money spent on research? Safe sex?
            (6) Far more people die of the flu than natural disasters. So building in a floodplain, following building codes and engineering standards for seismic events, etc., is way over-blown?

            It goes on and on.

          • “Mortality Pr million in China is 2.17.”

            However the paper above gives data that suggests that the total number of infected was about 4-6 times the number of ascertained cases, i. e. a mortality of about 6,000-9,000 per million infected.

        • mario lento
          March 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
          Not quite right.
          What maters is severity cases and fatality.
          Test applies to such as.
          Low severity numbers imply low fatality, regardless of real numbers of infections..

          • Whiten wrote:March 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
            Not quite right.
            What maters is severity cases and fatality.
            Test applies to such as.
            Low severity numbers imply low fatality, regardless of real numbers of infections..

            Response: Precision matters, and in that sense you seem to misunderstand the term rate. Mortality Rate is purely a function of number of people who died vs number of people infected. If 1 person was infected and 1 person died, that is a mortality rate of 1%. You chose to reframe what I said and then use different terms without defining precisely the context of those words. This your statement does not meaningfully respond to what I wrote. Please re read what I wrote, and if so incline respond again.

          • mario lento
            March 13, 2020 at 12:57 pm

            thank you.

            simple math.
            same number of infected, for the same nation, even when not quantified;
            two different outcomes to consider;

            one at five million identified severe cases
            and
            one at 15 thousand identified severe cases

            which do you think will have the higher mortality factor as per the case of the same population on the same condition of a pandemic, and by what deggre of factor variation?

            cheers

          • Whiten: asks, “which do you think will have the higher mortality factor as per the case of the same population on the same condition of a pandemic, and by what deggre of factor variation?”

            response: I would ask that you look up what “rate” means. And then please try to understand what mortality rate means. It is a very specific term. With good data, (which in the case of Covid 19 we do not have) the mortality rate tells you what % of the infected are expected to die. Your question as asked conflates words, which makes your question impossible to answer. For example, what is a mortality factor? I do not speak to that term what-so-ever.

      • Vuk,
        What if the virus is not nearly as serious as the initial numbers led us all to believe?
        What does the testing actually do, after all? If you are asymptomatic, you will not present for testing. If you have a mild case of anything, you don’t seek medical intervention.
        The numbers we are seeing are from people sick enough to present to medical intervention, and the death rate is 1%?
        And we’re supposed to hibernate?

      • This corona virus, COVID-19, may make small antigenic drifts in its spike as human immune system antibodies driven selection force small changes over time. But cellular immunity of T cells is much more robust to preventing a severe new infection in the same person even with a slightly shifting spike antigen, thus allowing a minor cold-like presentation of symptoms that lasts only a few days.
        As hed immunity builds in the human population above 50% the virus epidemic will rapidly begin to contract, and above 80%, the virus runs into immune individuals at such a frequency that community transmission grinds to halt, with only sporadic cases occurring.

        But wholesale genomic “antigenic shifts” like we see in type A influenza are unlikely to happen in Corona viruses. Corona viruses genome exists as a single ~30Kb-long nucleotide RNA sequence, unlike the 8 individual segments of the influenza genome that can and do reassort (mixed segments coming together from two different strains) to make a new strain to which the their is little pre-existing immunity.

      • Vuk

        Remdesivir and chloroquine are showing great promise, also many companies already have vaccines ready for testing for example, Medicago, who have proven that they can make vaccines within 20days and they work…

        https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/breaking-weve-got-vaccine-says-pentagon-funded-company/163739/

        Also, I’m from the uk, and no way will 40 million be infected, china was just over 80 thousand out of 1.3 billion. Italy roughly 10 thousand out of 60 million.

        • Careful Sunny
          The Rubenesque Songstress has yet to vocalize
          Italy is now over 15,000 infected with 1016 Deaths and 1046 recoveries

          • Bryan A

            I truly do not understand why italy has been hit so hard, could TB be the actual result of a lot of deaths?

          • Sunny, TB takes YEARS to kill, and it doesn’t cause ‘ordinary’ pneumonia.

            The explosive development in Italy is probably due to the epidemic spreading for at least 2-3 weeks undetected until people started dying at alarming rates.
            A high average age and a large proportion of multi-generation households is probably also factors.

          • Sunny
            Italy is country where lot of families with three and on rare occasions even four generations still live together in their ancestral homes. Italy has oldest population in Europe and second in the world after Japan. Italian diet is very healthy, not much red meat (too expensive), each meal has good content of vegetables and olive oil including moderate but healthy wine drinking accompanying the main meal of the day. Having around younger members of household means that the old are well look after, seldom lonely and most of time happy, all good imprudence for long life.
            Many younger people most likely got infected on public transport (Milan is usually full of Chinese tourists mainly there for high fashion purchases), or place of work and habitual endless kissing between both males and females. Often without showing any or very mild symptoms younger people would inadvertently take virus back home infecting their elderly parents or grandparents, hence high rate of infection and mostly among elderly, the high death rate.

          • W O W
            10 hours later and Italy is up to 17,660 infected and 1,246 deaths.
            +2500 infected and +230 deaths in 10 hours.
            Probably issues with reporting timeliness

      • I don’t know where you got your age vs. mortality data. The best I’ve seem comes from a Swiss university group: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf

        Their rates are slightly higher than yours.

        The problem is that the course of the disease after symptoms appear until either recovery or… not, is long, median of 18 days in the Swiss paper. Even for Korea, which started testing early in very large numbers, more than 90% of known cases are unresolved at the present time. So if you don’t believe the numbers coming out of China, there’s very little real data to go on for the next several weeks. Hang onto your hat….

      • Yep vuk, seems like the UK govt response is to protect the Economy first, and if you stop testing well no one knows how bad it is. Will Boris get away with it?

    • Sunny
      It is hard to tell if the paper is wrong when it is all written in Chinese characters!

      I was given hydroxychloroquine for arthritis in my hands. My blood pressure immediately started to skyrocket — from 120 to 160 systolic — and apparent neurological damage to leg muscles. I’ve been off the chloroquine for over a year, and while I’m slowly improving, my legs still aren’t back to normal.

    • As I understand the way chloroquine works is that it enters human cells creating lingering drops in the pH of certain cellular regions lower than the pH corona-viruses require to perform their ancillary viral processes. The virus then falters despite having gotten into the cell.

  3. A variety of sources report the utterly draconian methods used to control the virus in China. Are we seriously saying we want to follow that example?

    tonyb

    • How is it that the rest of China did not succumb to Covid 19 when around 5 million residents of Wuhan left the area prior to the travel bans?

      • Hubei (Wuhan) is 67,000 cases (with 13,000 still active) the remainder of China has an additional 14,000 cases

      • They took drastic quarantine measures in every community where Covid 19 showed up. Almost half of China was in quarantine at peak.

        But apparently it worked. Though they will have to quarantine everyone coming in from abroad for a while, perhaps a long while. But chinese industry will be up and running almost full-blast again while almost everyone else is closed down….

        • How China Dispatched the Corona Virus

          Apple helped lay the groundwork for a massive and successful quarantine in China a decade ago. Hunger for information and increasing wealth of the populus did the rest.

          Apple phones were status items when they were first introduced to Chinese in 2009. Their phones were purchased by many, but cheaper knock-offs followed in short order and reached into every corner of the three top-tier cities. The multi-purpose messaging and social media app “We Chat” first appeared in January, 2011. By 2013 a 7-dollar-per-month chip implanted in their phones allowed users to make cashless in-store payments by scanning a bar code. The Chinese government likely encouraged this technology which spread in spite of its risks of unfiltered information because the trade-off was a wealth of data they could harvest on users’ location, comments and habits.

          81% of Chinese have made at least one “mobile proximity payment” with a smartphone in the past six months, which makes them far and away the highest percentage of touchless smartphone users in the world. By contrast only 27% of U.S. mobile users have made a recent purchase this way.

          https://www.emarketer.com/content/global-proximity-mobile-payment-users

          Corona virus likely has a “residence” time on surfaces of up to a day or two. But even if the virions only remain infectious for a few hours, their presence on a yuan note – or a dollar – moving from hand-to-hand would be a prime vector for its transmission in a community unused to hand-washing. Even sliding a plastic credit card through a well-used store scanner would likely carry enough of the virus to infect someone. We tend to reinforce “proper behavior” of others when we’re frightened enough, and the Chinese society seems to have readapted quickly to this old norm: cash payers there are relegated to separate lines and subject to delays and masked interrogators with thermal scanners and disinfectant.

          A lot has changed since Mao’s day in China, but one thing has not: people who stand out get special attention very quickly, and neighborhood committees are vigilant. The digital technologies that the West introduced has made China ripe for social monitoring and soft manipulation. Their fast handling of the Corona virus, in spite of other unsavory health habits, is just proof that their grip on their people has changed from “hands-on” to touchless. They can still move the masses with relative ease.

          • Chinese police now use body and head-cams with facial recognition and infrared monitors. As they walk their beats, they can detect and identify anyone with a slight fever at around 15 meters, download their position and WeChat identification code into a central record. Videos of this are being circulated by the Chinese government, touting its effectiveness. WeChat ID codes are now an accepted alternative to personal identification numbers.

      • The five million people from Wuhan each had a phone with a Wuhan number in it. For a while there was an app that could tell you where in Beijing (where I live) all the Wuhan mobile phones were. I’m sure a large number if not all of those phone number owners were tested.

      • The paper above suggests a similar fatality rate of 1 per cent or a bit less.

        But these numbers apply to countries where the epidemic was contained early, so that medical facilities could cope even at peak (though apparently barely so in China).

        Fatality rates in countries where containment is feeble or non-existant, like in most european countries will probably be several times higher. In e. g. Sweden the medical system is already very severely strained with only a few hundred cases.

      • See my post above. Korea has no idea what its ultimate mortality will be. More than 90% of identified cases are “active” (neither recovered nor dead). You can’t divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases *NOW* and have a meaningful result. You need to divide it by the known cases from several weeks ago.

    • I agree, I am sure their death rate in Huwan was in the 10s of thousands with people dead in the streets and in their own homes.
      I do not believe their “official” numbers at all.

  4. Hyping the cov19 has similarities to hyping climate change. Even though it’s a hot topic of conversation it’s just not that big a deal. Climate Change and cov19 will make lots of money for lots of people to the detriment of an even larger number people.

    The Swine Flu ‘Pandemic’ Was Officially a Hoax, Corona Virus Probably is Too. Big Pharma Stands to Profit, Again https://www.sott.net/article/430642-The-Swine-Flu-Pandemic-Was-Officially-a-Hoax-Corona-Virus-Probably-is-Too-Big-Pharma-Stands-to-Profit-Again

    And see this graph: https://www.sott.net/image/s28/560257/full/illnesses.jpg

  5. I heard there will be an announcement that the US will be working with all of the developed countries to fast track a vaccine. (Perhaps it will be included in the President’s 3:00 pm Eastern, announcement of the US public emergency).

    We need some good news. Partial country shutdowns is not good news.

    We need to restart local daily life.

      • It is not a tested and validated method. Far from it.
        That certainly doesn’t mean simply making a virus protein using plant genetics then the protein injected with an adjuvant is effective at preventing a productive infection.

        Lessons from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine efforts in the 1960’s urge extreme caution to this “protein only” vaccine approach.

        What was found in the RSV vaccine after decades of research must noit be forgotten or overlooked. Immunity to a respiratory system infecting virus like RSV or Conrona virus is systems level immunity. Focusing on only one part of immunity (humoral – antibody) is huge mistake waiting to happen.
        We could easily end up with a vaccine, like in the case of RSV vaccine in the 1960’s, that enhances Corona virus symptoms and sequelae.

        Scenario to be avoided at all costs with a novel “vaccine”: enhanced COVID-19 disease (ECD) as the result of immunization with antigens not processed in the cytoplasm, resulting in a nonprotective antibody response and CD4+ T helper priming in the absence of cytotoxic T lymphocytes.
        Antigens in this case would be the viral proteins then injected with an adjuvant to elicit an immune response. The immune response could then enhance COVID -19 infections unless an effective, robust cytotoxic T cell response is also induced by the vaccine components.

        The only vaccine I would take to a human trial would be an attenuated COVID-19 virus with the 3′ RNA coding regions for its accessory proteins completely deleted or filled in with numerous translation “stop” codons.

      • That site actually says: “Medicago CEO Bruce Clark said his company could produce as many as 10 million doses a month. If regulatory hurdles can be cleared, he said in a Thursday interview, the vaccine could start to become available in November 2021.” which seems quite a time to wait.

  6. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions

    If they are right about the reproductive number, R0 is 3.86 it, is more contagious than initially reported. It is necessary to reduce it to below 1.0 to stop the spread. Seems like drastic measures of social separation is needed.

    • Their testing was also seriously under-counting in the initial stages. Later method increased the number of detected cases by a factor of about 2.6 .

      Slowing the spread simply delays the peak and delays the tail off, thus making the flux of patients more manageable: see “flattening the curve”.

  7. This virus is firmly entrenched in those communities and will low level propagate even through the NH summer. Until herd immunity reaches ~80% it will continue to circulate for years.

    Human population “Herd immunity” will be built two ways, (1) natural infection with the virus and (hopefully) (2) a vaccine that delivers a host-developed humoral immunity (B-cells/plasma cells making Ig) that also combines a cellular immunity component (T cells) to broader corona virus infections.

    • Joel

      I’ve been reading about the virus all week and don’t know who to believe. Went to the CDC website and read up on the H1N1 pandemic. In the US :

      “From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.”

      ” Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

      https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

      Many schools were closed but no comparison to the cancellations we see for Covid-19.

      What should/could be expect from the world’s actions that we are seeing now?

  8. Does anyone have access to a historic global, regional and national dataset of deaths so a ‘big data’ analysis can seek the fingerprint of previous unknown pandemics. Or does such a study already exist?

    • son of mulder

      Here it is chapter and Verse

      https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

      There is a pile of information available from WHO on each country as well as global averages. Causes of death tend to vary somewhat from country to country, although some like heart disease and cancers tend to be top causes of death in most countries.

      Flu and associated pneumonia also tends to feature highly and puts Covid 19 into context. It is unlikely to feature as a top 10 cause in any country, flu will outdistance it

  9. I think all the hype is way overblown.

    S. Korea seems to be doing the best job of testing. They issue a daily press release which can be found here. Has charts by region and also by sex and age.
    https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

    They’ve tested more than 230,000 people as of Mar 13. I presume they have some reason for administering a test. Surely they aren’t doing it randomly. Probably using such things as exhibiting symptoms or close association with a symptomatic person or group.

    Out of that 230,000 they have found only 7979 confirmed cases. That indicates a modest transmission rate of about 3.5%. Of those confirmed, the fatality rate for men is 1.28%, for women 0.57%, combine is 0.84%. The fatality rate by age goes from 0.12% at age 30-39 to 8.3% for age 80 and up.

    Fatality rate of confirmed cases by age group.
    80&up_253/21_8.30%
    70-79_506/24_4.74%
    60-69_985/14_1.42%
    50-59_1523/6_0.39%
    40-49_1117/1_0.09%
    30-39_823/1_0.12%
    No deaths any younger

    I’m in the 70-79 category, but I’m not going to be altering my lifestyle very much until I have a confirmed case.

    • Bob Koss: “the fatality rate for men is 1.28%, for women 0.57%, combine is 0.84%.”

      WR: OK, that is for South Korea. But in China the numbers for closed cases (most cases are closed right now) are quite different: 64,152 (95%) Recovered / Discharged and 3,177 (5%) Deaths. Cases still active: 13,486.

      For Italy present numbers are in no way in line with the Korean numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

      There are different ‘strains’ of the virus. Perhaps that makes the difference.

        • MarkW: There are several strains. Source CDC.
          Common human coronaviruses
          229E (alpha coronavirus)
          NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
          OC43 (beta coronavirus)
          HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
          Other human coronaviruses
          MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
          SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
          SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

          • Those are all corona viruses, they aren’t different strains of this virus which is the COVID-19 virus.

          • Mark W, Covid 19 is a corona virus. Stands for [Co]rona [Vi]rus [D]isease 20[19]. Look it up. SARS is also caronavirus. It was named to get rid of the Wuhan reference.

          • The notion that there is an ‘L’ and an ‘S’ strain of this virus is controversial, to say the least.

          • Report cited probably gives us the reason Italian death rate is higher than most other countries beside China. Italy, unlike USA for example [due to President Trump’s early blockage of flights from China, as compared to North Italy Milan’s international airport] had extensive Chinese air linkages when the “Wuhan” corona-virus was blossoming (including pre-quarantine Wuhan).

            Report relates that the “L” strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus (the L refers to it’s distinct involvement of a leucine codon) was the more prevalent early strain of the “Wuhan” corona-virus; thus what Italy got more of than countries exposed relatively later. Apparently this is the more aggressive strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus & in time, despite it’s initial predominance, this “L” strain became proportionally less of the later Wuhan cases.

            The other strain is being called the “S” strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus (the S refers to it’s distinct involvement of a serine codon). Although deemed an more primary (ancestral) strain of the”Wuahn” corona-virus it was not the most prevalent strain found early on in Wuhan (however this “S” strain always was a percentage of the early Wuhan cases).

            O.K., so where these 2 strains show relevant variation between each other is in two factors. One of these is “…orflab … [which] … encodes replicase/transcriptase … for viral genome replication … important … pathogenesis ….” The other one is : “…ORF8 promotes … ER … [ endoplasmic reticulum] … unfolded protein response….”

            To me this indicates that the relatively earlier predominating “Wuhan” corona-virus strain (“L”) was more aggressively spread & furthermore it’s pathogenesis (ex: orflab encoding) is more severe. This is reflected in the recent Italian mortality rate as compared to farther flung countries.

            South Korea’s & Japan’s proximity to “Wuhan” corona-virus epi-center may not be resulting in dramatically high mortality because their exposure was more to the less aggressive strain (“S”) . Their number of reported cases grew before Italy’s, but bear in mind that even though early in Wuhan’s outbreak not all infected got the aggressive strain (“L”).
            Presumably “patient zero” in Korea/Japan spread the strain with the more benign “orflab” & “ORF8” profiles.

            To round out this paradigm the report also mentions human case(s) where found (find) infection with both the “L” & “S” strains of the “Wuhan” corona-virus. Presumably people with this dual infection have a more complicated prognosis than (say) if just got the less aggressive “S” strain.

    • “That indicates a modest transmission rate of about 3.5%. ”

      No, aninfection rate of more than 3.5% (there are lots of false negatives).

      Of the tested sub-population which, as you noted, was not random.

  10. The most interesting result is that they found that only 40% of infections became visible with 60% not being picked up. That makes containment by testing practically a non-starter leaving only a complete lockdown as alternative.

    One hopes that the people stop eating bats.

  11. South Korea and China both used I V vitamin C. Works very well. Last I checked, Italy
    did not.

    • I take several forms of vitamin C along with 1 gram 3 x a day of pure ascorbic acid. As well 3 x day Cal Mag Zn, for the balanced Zn, Curcumin formula for inflamation, along with fish oil, some other fats like astazanthin, and some other wellness formula in high dose whenever I am sick. When lungs are affected, I take guaifenesin, which really helps keep moisture in lungs and helps a productive gentle cough. That and lots of water, in small amounts through many servings.

      My Covid 19 hit my lungs including with immediate fever lasted together for 5 solid days and then all symptoms were gone. I did not get a bacterial infection, as my phlegm was clear. Cough was not that productive, but lungs sounded rumbly and weazie making sleeping and breathing difficult. I usually get a sinus issues and sore throat before a lung problem. This time, only lungs and it came on strong and fast. I have another week of keeping out of public to make sure I am clear!

      I used a rescue inhaler to keep my lungs open.

          • Mario

            I took high doses of ascorbic acid 3x/day for a difficult respiratory issue that inhalers of all kinds didn’t help. One thing to remember, if you take too much too soon you poop your pants from the IBS which can attack very quickly!!

          • Yes, Ascorbic acid needs to combine with a mineral before you can absorb it. So it will give you the runs unless you take mineral ascorbates. Think Emergen-C. With that you can probably eat 10 to 12 grams of it. But there is too much sugar and they have vitamin b12 in them which keeps me up at night.

            The trick is to find the point where you get the runs and calibrate below that. But I also take it with Ca citrate, magnesium and zinc, which helps replenish minerals.

        • Hi Stephen W: I asked about it and they were not all that concerned, but also there was no ability for them to test. The nasal swab did show negative for FLU A/B and they deduced it was viral. They even offered antibiotics for the prolonged fever, which I am loathe to take. I am certain it was not also bacterial since never was there any discolored phlegm and the symptoms pretty much stopped at the same time the fever broke after 5 days. The recovery from that point on was miraculous… and had I taken the antibiotics, I would have assumed they were the trick. Glad you are over it and better!

        • Sunny: Thank you. I feel 100%! Just being cautious for others sake… which is not that difficult since I am fortunate with a good home setup for business.

      • Good for you. I can’t handle large doses of ascorbic acid; bothers my digestive system. So I ground it up and mixed it with sodium bicarbonate, and that helped a lot. I’ve since gone to calcium ascorbate.

        • I had not thought of that, baking soda but yes, calcium and sodium… which is OK if you’re sweating out the sodium! Ascorbates will let you tolerate much more and go more quickly into your blood.

  12. Probably many more suicides will develop in the general global population, than any mortality in those of the middle aged demographics from COVID-19 just because they are going to lose their jobs, and maybe their cars/houses because of the cratering of the economy, some of which appears to be engineered by foreign interests intent on either causing general mischief or putting North American production of shale oil and oil sands out of business. Crime will soar, drug abuse will be rampant, and all hope will be lost when the economy falters because of these unfortunate events. Just who might have a grievance against the USA and the West? China, Russia, Iran, and just maybe MBS is an inbred nut job that went along with this, to disrupt the economies of the West thinking that SA will capture some more market share. We should never forget what just happened; revenge is a dish best served cold.

    • You really need to check with your supplier. You seem to have been given some really bad stuff this time.

  13. CONCLUSIONS

    Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and intervention
    ——————–

    Very silly dumb conclusion.
    The countermeasures in question, were taken simply because Wuhan happened to be the first place,
    the first stage.
    Data at that point was too little for a proper assessment, showing also a high severity and high fatality.
    China did the best it could responsibly at that time, for the best of it’s people and world, and because it could do it.
    How effective that was, not quite easy to claim.

    In consideration of this happening, it is mathematically impossible for any other nation there to claim the same.

    Now, that more and better data have come in, China is dropping the ball in consideration of such measures, simply because not need it,
    also too expensive and even non effective, not any more.

    They did a good brave thing with the countermeasures.
    The rest of the world shall be thankful to such an act, and really consider it for what it was,
    and stop exploiting it in silly dumb ways, that cause more confusion, caos and unjustifiable extra burden and losses.

    cheers

  14. This thing has been ridiculously over-hyped by a media culture that profits from panic, by a corporate culture that spends every hour quaking in (justifiable) fear of lawyers and rogue courts should they make a misstep, and by a government that never lets a crisis go to waste.

    Relax people. Life has risks. Go live it anyway. In the end, no matter how sharp you are, nobody gets out of here alive.

  15. China did the best it could responsibly at that time, for the best of it’s people and world,

    China does not do things for “the rest of the world”.

  16. “Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan has been controlled”

    I hope so, but given uneasy relationship between the current Chinese leadership and the truth, I need some other form of confirmation.

    • “I hope so, but given uneasy relationship between the current Chinese leadership and the truth, I need some other form of confirmation.”
      Same could be said for the “it’ll be gone soon, and we have plenty of testing kits, and numbers are falling in the US, and it’s all Obama’s fault” US government.

      • You just can’t get over the fact that your candidate lost.

        BTW, I just love the way socialists can’t deal with reality or proportionality.

        • I think it is time for you to move on Mark. There is an election this year and what is happening now is relevant, not what happened four years ago.

  17. It is my understanding that many older people in China live with their children. This is cultural and also due to the children having much higher living standards and income than previous generation. Could this have caused the deaths and infections in Wuhan ?

  18. At the time of writing the 12 European countries with most infections (with a total population slightly larger than that of the USA) puts matters into perspective:
    The cases in the USA make up a little more than 6% of those in the European countries
    The fatalities in the USA make up a little more than 3% of those in the European countries

    An honest person will admit that Trump’s team is working very hard. The alarmism of politicians and journalists appears to be an attempt to discredit him for their purely selfish political reasons. The fact is that many of the elderly who die because of the virus would even without it not live for many more years.

  19. According to the Johns Hopkins site, there have been 33 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. to date. This is strange because there were 40 yesterday. I guess some of the causes of death were reclassified, some people came back to life or the severity of the illness really is exaggerated.

    • Various sites with statistics do not agree with one another.

      22 Deaths are from “Life Care Center” – a nursing home in Kirkland Washington. (King County)

      Hope that adds some perspective.

  20. I heard a radio report that medication used for inflammation for another medical problem was successfully used in patients with the virus in two countries. Sorry, I cannot remember further details. It may we worth looking into. Perhaps someone can give a link to a written report?

  21. I wondered why had Italy 5 or 6x the cases as Spain or France had. A report I saw, stated that all the leather goods companies in N. Italy had been sold to the Chinese, They ,as is their manner, had brought in 100,000 Chinese workers. Q.E.D

    • Interesting, I had read that it is thought that a likely explanation for the Spanish flu was that the UK brought in several hundred thousand Chinese workers to help in the war effort die to a shortage of manpower. The UK did have one of the first deaths associated with that pandemic.

    • Poor steve, he just can’t let go of his irrational prejudices.
      That and his need to take large group of people and stuff all of them into unflattering boxes of his own design.

      • Biden and his team will take full control. I think he might have said that he would follow China’s model and harvest plasma from infected prisoners and stem cells from babies to be aborted.

    • “good to see you folks here are finally listening.”

      Well, the next-most-popular (?) climate contrarian website, JoNova’s, has not only been listening but sounding the alarm (responsibly and with good links and data) from January.
      https://jonova.com.au

  22. Re this Coronavirus BS. Einstein said something like “I dont know if the universe is infinite but I do know for certain that humans are infinitely stupid” Humans have just wasted billions on a nothing burger just like climate change

  23. This analysis (and explanation) is a MUST READ for everyone: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    From the article:
    This is what you can conclude:
    • Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
    • Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

    Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

    • I have been watching the daily numbers for the last several weeks using this site, … https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

      An observation is that the death rate is initially high for a nation, then is reduced as more cases are found. Iran had an initial death ration of 10% to 12%. Now it is down to 5% which is still a high rate. Italy has the worst numbers at 7%. The new cases today are at 3,500, still growing daily. They have jumped into second place for having the highest case load over the last 5 days. Those are the two worst hit nations outside of China.

      Then there are a number of nations with very low death rates. Makes me wonder if Italy/Iran were hit with a more deadly variation of the virus.

  24. Re this Coronavirus BS. Einstein said something like “I dont know if the universe is infinite but I do know for certain that humans are infinitely stupid” Humans have just wasted billions on a nothing burger virus just like climate change. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/13/evolving-epidemiology-and-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-the-outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-in-wuhan-china/#comment-2936929. It seems to me that Australians, English and Irish (and USA democrats) have become notoriously stupid and backward from being before great countries with great people. They seems to thrive on misery and bad news nothing is positive for them. Glad I left and live in South America a looong loong time ago where people are actually happy and have a life. BTW my 2 cents worth cheers

  25. I have posted on Wuhanvirus several times here previously.

    To push aside racist naysayers, it did begin in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, in late 2019. The mechanism was bats to pangolins to humans in a Wuhan wet market. The PC virus name is now SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting fatal respiratory disease is CoViD-19. AKA Wuhan virus.

    Latest mortality data (several previous posts) based on the ‘experimental’ Diamond Princess ‘experiment as reported from Japan. The data ‘corrects’ mortality/ recovered outcomes number from JHU.CSSE.edu for the undiagnosed as yet uncertain case denominator.

    So, when Japan published the final Diamond Princess report last week, there were 705 total PCR diagnosed, 392 symptomatic (fever >100F) and 313 ‘asymptomatic’. That last value is skewed high, so alarm maybe also high. Elderly cruisers are more susceptible, and some ‘negatives’ presented symptoms later in Nebraska. But is the best actual ‘experimental’ data we have now. Based on that ‘fact’ denomination correction, we have the following CFR (case mortality outcomes, deaths/ recovered):
    Last Thursday and each day following:
    3.4 same as WHO the day before, perhaps coincidentally.
    3.5
    3.5
    3.6
    3.6
    3.7
    3.8
    3.8
    4.1.

    Notice this consistent and fact based albeit negatively biased method is NOT a good trend, and NOT media reported.

  26. A doctor on Lou Dobbs the other day had been in China studying what they did. Blood plasma from a person recovering from the coronavirus can be used to treat 3 other people who are sick. This is what we used to do before we had antibiotics and it has proven effective in China. A Chinese colleague of the doctor sent him the paper. We can do this now.

    • Hi P. Redfern, – This viral treatment using a plasma tactic is not new; probably not a panacea for this Wuhan coronavirus. If want to see some of the limitations (& improvements) there is relevant data for 80 corona-virus patients reported in (2005) free full text on-line of : “Use of convalescent plasma therapy in SARS patients in Hong Kong”.

      This “convalescent plasma” tactic has had research published for use with other viruses (ex: influenza). And there are other reports related to it’s use in SARS besides the above cited study.

  27. Who collects and issues the data in China?

    With the inevitable leakage from the lock-downs and vast semi-rural areas with poor medical facilities China’s Fat Lady ain’t singing yet

    Wake up chaps

  28. Where there is no social distancing – “This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people”

    “A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus
    March 9, 2020 by Robert
    Data from the Diamond Princess cruise suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people and not as deadly as we think.

    Here are excerpts from an article by Jeremy Samuel Faust entitled COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think.

    “The most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise…

    “A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus.

    “In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases.

    “During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke.

    “This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low).

    “On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent…. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died.

    “(In other words) The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    “In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic.

    “… another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients (on the Diamond Princess) were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that … many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises.

    “This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported.”

  29. problem with relying on data from a source known to fudge data is….you got a real good chance of having a fudged outcome.
    stay calm, practice good hygiene, avoid risky situations.
    IOW act like you should always be acting anyways.

  30. I think that, yes this disease is very serious, but I believe that the so called cure is much worse than the virus. Hysteria , paranoia, misinformation and on and on. Have you noticed as well, that the hardest hit parts of the globe are mostly the most affluent? In part, I think that we in the most sanitized regions have compromised immune systems that do not enable to fight off new strains like the corona virus.

    • It was well known in Soviet Union and other dirty and poor countries that the tourists most often ill where the Americans; far later, the West Europeans. The ones from poor countries were the strongest ones.

      The Americans (those who travel) had very weak immunity.

  31. In case folks haven’t seen. Queueing theory and epidemics

    Gompertz Curve
    https://www.apsnet.org/publications/phytopathology/backissues/Documents/1981Articles/Phyto71n07_716.PDF
    Queuing theory and epidemiology
    http://www.few.vu.nl/~rplanque/resources/PapersForProject/trapman.pdf

    A lot of public comment has been about “flattening the curve” which is really an effort to control arrival rate. I wonder if just as much effort has been taken to manage dwell times/ service times etc.

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