Fast-track scientific study suggests Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan has been controlled

This new science paper suggests  “Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan”. That suggests that similar countermeasures being enacted worldwide might have an effective result.

This paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, but given the speed (or sluggishness) of that process, the authors thought they should do a pre-print first. Sometimes the web can be the harshest peer-review. – Anthony

Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

medRxiv preprint doi: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

The entire paper is available here.


We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.


Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 – February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.


The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from

3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.


Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and intervention

The entire paper is available here.

Unrelated to the paper, but relevant and interesting, this WaPo graph comes from Matt Ridley on Facebook.

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March 13, 2020 10:22 am

Its a shame the news media sticks to inducing mass anxiety and depression, rather then giving the people hope and positive news.

Remdesivir and chloroquine are showing great results, and is being used on americans on the princess ship, the first patient in Lombardy italy has greatly improved after taking remdesivir, same as some other patients in the usa in which the drug was used, chinese doctors say the same… France is testing chloroquine, his is a very old drug and is cheap to buy.

The us military complex has order Remdesivir for all service members, va patients and all other staff..

Chinese doctor on remdesivir and chloroquine

A Pentagon backed company has a vaccine ready and can be tested within weeks. Italy has a vaccine ready for testing as well

Minnesota will be using both drugs as well.

Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 10:24 am

See my latest commentary on some possibly very good news.

A warming light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel?

My conclusion:
We will likely know soon if that light at the end of the tunnel is the welcome warming of spring and summer that will bring on a respite from the contagion or an oncoming train. I don’t think that there is a probable middle ground.

Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 10:59 am


Very interesting report but how accurate it is we don’t know. This was especially heartening;

“strong winter seasonality between Dec and April and are undetectable in summer months in temperate regions’

|Although it does suggest that it is vital that we have an appropriate vaccine in place by next autumn so suitable immunisation can be undertaken before winter.

Lee L
Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 12:37 pm

Is this not what might be expected if you seriously lock down a city?
The virus continues to be transmitted within the containment boundary until the number of potential hosts declines due to immunity. ( This is assuming you are immune after recovering or that you died if you didn’t recover).

Anyone who ‘leaks’ out of the city while infected still has the potential to start a new Wuhan if they go to another densly populated place.

It is best to think of a crowded event hall in the same way as a full airplane. Both are chambers where transmission of the virus is more likely to occur compared to staying ouit of the chamber.

Reply to  Lee L
March 14, 2020 12:59 pm

So why do we see only one Wuhan? When around 5 million residents of Wuhan left before the lock down. This puzzles me to no end.

John in Oz
Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 2:27 pm

This is a very Northern hemisphere view of the possible benefits of the coming Summer.

Will travel bans change to ‘no-one enters from a wintery area’?

Old Ranga from Oz
Reply to  John in Oz
March 13, 2020 4:39 pm

What the woke PC737@ mob would call hemisphobic, perhaps?

Old Ranga from Oz
Reply to  John in Oz
March 13, 2020 4:44 pm

What the woke PC mob would call hemisphobic, perhaps?

J Mac
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 12:45 pm

President Trump address on Wuhan virus right now

J Mac
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 12:55 pm

From President Trump’s live presentation:
Declaring ‘national emergency’ today.
Walmart and Walgreens to support ‘fast track’ drive-through testing for Wuhan virus. Must complete a symptoms quiz before being directed to a drive-through test site. 24-36 hours to test results.
Roche approved to use their new automated test method for ‘fast track’ testing.
Proceed with ‘filling the national strategic oil reserves’ while prices are depressed. Support oil industry.

Reply to  J Mac
March 13, 2020 1:07 pm

filling oil reserves is smart, thank Saudis.

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 5:23 am

Were they ever refilled after the Maobama Administration drawdown?
We need to impose tariffs on Saudi and Russky oil that varies with the delta between actual and breakeven price.
We need to sanction Connecticut’s purchase of Russky LNG.
We need to sanction California’s purchase of Russky oil.

Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
March 16, 2020 10:01 pm

Bigfoot, now that characterization [Maobama]
is very creative!

J Mac
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 1:06 pm

From President Trump’s address:
The website with the ‘symptoms quiz’ will be ‘up’ by Monday. It will direct authorized folks to drive-through test sites.
Guidelines for nursing homes being revised to improve care and reduce transmission of viral ‘bugs’. When to limit visitors, etc.
Next 8 weeks are critical… this too shall pass. Draw on our strengths, learn, and adapt.

J Mac
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 1:24 pm

From President Trump’s address Q&A:
Relying on the best science and experts to revise the existing system to meet the demands of new challenges. “The last administration had a very big failure with the Swine Flu.”
Based on emerging numbers, may add UK to travel ban.
Data sharing with China and others has been very helpful.
Canadian PM Trudeau’s wife has tested positive for Wuhan virus. No change to US/Canada border/travel..
Continuing coordination on stranded cruise ships and returning citizens to their respective countries. Some cruise lines taking 60 day ‘pause’ for cruises.
Dr. Fauci “Travel restrictions and in-country interdiction of transmission vectors will reduce the peak number of infected and percentage of resulting deaths. This is our plan.”
Cutting though bureaucracy and using the full measure of our labs and services.

John Finn
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 1:30 pm

Well – that’s a coincidence. Just over an hour ago I mentioned to my daughter how strange it was that several countries to the South of China had got off relatively lightly. Australia, Thailand, Malaysia & Singapore were all reporting relatively low case numbers. I did idly speculate that the virus might be sensitive to temperature.

I ‘m getting quite good at this stuff.

Reply to  John Finn
March 13, 2020 7:45 pm

You should be a doctor.

Reply to  John Finn
March 14, 2020 3:41 am

You need to normalize for population.

At the moment, Australia has 8.9 cases per million people. The US has 7.0. Canada, 5.3.
This virus started in the Nothern Hemisphere, so it is logical the numbers are higher there.

I don’t think we’ve seen enough spread of this virus to draw any conclusions wrt temperature sensitivity.

J Mac
Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 1:38 pm

From Q&A after President Trump’s address:
A few stupid ‘attack’ questions, deflected and moved on.
Domestic travel should be self-limiting, based on individuals own health risks and/or apparent symptoms.
Prior bureaucracy constrained manual test methods have been inadequate to meet increasing demand. New ‘fast track’ drive-through tests will rapidly improve this situation.

Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 2:07 pm

Gregory, the other half of the planet is going into winter…colder

…the light in the tunnel could be a freight train for them

Reply to  Latitude
March 13, 2020 5:11 pm

88 percent of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere.

Reply to  Gregory Wrightstone
March 13, 2020 5:57 pm

I noticed this last week. Definitely warmer areas doing better. For example Northern Italy vs Southern Italy. Humidity might play a role. I live in Texas and some cases but not spreading.

March 13, 2020 10:27 am

Further to Matt Ridley’s graph, the good folks at the “information is beautiful” website have a COVID-19 infographic that includes a similar chart “Flattening the Curve” along with other graphics:

John K.
Reply to  PaulH
March 13, 2020 12:56 pm

=> Paul H.
Thanks for the referral & link – a new site for me.
Flattening the Curve is a great visual and ostensibly what all of the current cancellations/closures/postponements are trying to achieve.
The final graphic, “Mentions in Media” tells the story of the insidious nature of current mass media to foment panic, rather than to simply disseminate information.

Reply to  PaulH
March 13, 2020 1:05 pm

Thanks Paul, a good collection of clear and informative graphics.

In particular the fact that 80% of cases are mild and the more people have already recovered than are currently infected. You seem to see that on MSM headlines for some reason.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 2:38 am

Did you mean, “You [seldom] seem to see that on MSM headlines for some reason.”?

Reply to  PaulH
March 14, 2020 9:28 am

Interesting visual, however I will balance the death rate, in fact of those out of the virus more than 7% died! (this is mostly influence by China of course). Also I think I can extrapolate that if you are in critical state, you are most likely to die (if all people who died have been in critical care first).

Also when the first cases are reported in a country the death rate is much higher than 7%. Why I don’t know.

If you look at Italy for all the people where it is over, I either they recover or die, the rate as yesterday is currently 47% who die! Spain at 27%, France at 87%, Germany 15% and UK 54%, USA 51%. Why so high at the beginning (China now at 4.6% and Korea at 9.2% but where above 20% not long ago)

March 13, 2020 10:31 am

Don’t believe word of it, they are either not testing or not disclosing data.

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 10:38 am

And here is why …
UK is abandoning testing and quarantine of all except those who are hospitalised in critical condition.
This will seriously hide extent of pandemic spread in that UK, making numbers look good.
This is case of ‘hide expansion’.
40 millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return year on year”, the government’s chief scientific adviser said.
What happens when virus mutates and immunity is ineffective to a new version?
However, from the economy point of view it makes perfect sense.
Unproductive older and weak people will be eliminated, reducing stress on NHS, social services, dementia homes, state pension finances, council housing and any home-care productive members of families can be otherwise gainfully employed.
Younger, healthier and productive members of population after a week or two of work will gain immunity, go back to work, pay taxes and keep the cunning well paid political class happy.
If China can do it, the UK could do it even better.
BTW which age group are you?
Age mortality rate
0–9 – 0%
10–19 – 0.2%
20–29 – 0.2%
30–39 – 0.2%
40–49 – 0.4%
50–59 – 1.3%
60–69 – 3.6%
70–79 – 8.0%
80+ – 14.8 %

mario lento
Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 11:02 am

The biggest problem with not counting is that we will never know the true universe of people infected. A larger universe means a lower mortality rate for all ranges. A lower mortality rate means, little to nothing to worry about for most people. Perhaps the true mortality rate is 10 to 100 times less than the above rates and somewhat less than the the overall Flu A, B or the least dangerous C. We just won’t know.

Nils Nilsen
Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 11:48 am

Mortality Pr million in China is 2.17. For the normal flu mortality is around 200. Hundred times as deadly, and we don’t blink …

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Nils Nilsen
March 13, 2020 1:14 pm

Yeah, we get it…lots of people die of the flu. But you are basing mortality on total population, not the number of people infected. Also…

(1) We “blink.” Every year, we’ve got new flu vaccines. We even have a “flu season.” Many hospitals have to set-up temporary facilities to handle bad flu seasons.
(2) As for that flu vaccine…well, there’s no vaccine for this coronavirus.
(3) Draconian and unprecedented measures were put into place in China (and still mostly exist) to control the coronavirus. It’s not like they’ve just been going business-as-usual and have only 2.17 per million population dying.
(4) Far more people die of the flu than terrorist attacks. Should we get rid of airport security and intelligence bureaus?
(5) Far more people die of the flu than HIV/AIDS. How do you feel about the money spent on research? Safe sex?
(6) Far more people die of the flu than natural disasters. So building in a floodplain, following building codes and engineering standards for seismic events, etc., is way over-blown?

It goes on and on.

Reply to  Nils Nilsen
March 13, 2020 2:32 pm

“Mortality Pr million in China is 2.17.”

However the paper above gives data that suggests that the total number of infected was about 4-6 times the number of ascertained cases, i. e. a mortality of about 6,000-9,000 per million infected.

Van Doren
Reply to  Nils Nilsen
March 13, 2020 3:55 pm

Stop this BS. Mortality for influenza is on average around 2.

jim hogg
Reply to  Nils Nilsen
March 13, 2020 5:52 pm

It’s amazing where context free thinking can take you. . .

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 12:20 pm

mario lento
March 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
Not quite right.
What maters is severity cases and fatality.
Test applies to such as.
Low severity numbers imply low fatality, regardless of real numbers of infections..

mario lento
Reply to  whiten
March 13, 2020 12:57 pm

Whiten wrote:March 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
Not quite right.
What maters is severity cases and fatality.
Test applies to such as.
Low severity numbers imply low fatality, regardless of real numbers of infections..

Response: Precision matters, and in that sense you seem to misunderstand the term rate. Mortality Rate is purely a function of number of people who died vs number of people infected. If 1 person was infected and 1 person died, that is a mortality rate of 1%. You chose to reframe what I said and then use different terms without defining precisely the context of those words. This your statement does not meaningfully respond to what I wrote. Please re read what I wrote, and if so incline respond again.

Reply to  whiten
March 13, 2020 1:21 pm

mario lento
March 13, 2020 at 12:57 pm

thank you.

simple math.
same number of infected, for the same nation, even when not quantified;
two different outcomes to consider;

one at five million identified severe cases
one at 15 thousand identified severe cases

which do you think will have the higher mortality factor as per the case of the same population on the same condition of a pandemic, and by what deggre of factor variation?


mario lento
Reply to  whiten
March 13, 2020 1:29 pm

Whiten: asks, “which do you think will have the higher mortality factor as per the case of the same population on the same condition of a pandemic, and by what deggre of factor variation?”

response: I would ask that you look up what “rate” means. And then please try to understand what mortality rate means. It is a very specific term. With good data, (which in the case of Covid 19 we do not have) the mortality rate tells you what % of the infected are expected to die. Your question as asked conflates words, which makes your question impossible to answer. For example, what is a mortality factor? I do not speak to that term what-so-ever.

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 11:09 am

I saw the Champions League match in Liverpool.
The stadium was full of fans.

Reply to  ren
March 13, 2020 11:41 am

That’s over, football is cancelled in most European countries even Germany today.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 13, 2020 2:20 pm

NCAA just cancelled March Madness.
Major League Baseball has suspended spring training.

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 11:14 am

What if the virus is not nearly as serious as the initial numbers led us all to believe?
What does the testing actually do, after all? If you are asymptomatic, you will not present for testing. If you have a mild case of anything, you don’t seek medical intervention.
The numbers we are seeing are from people sick enough to present to medical intervention, and the death rate is 1%?
And we’re supposed to hibernate?

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 11:21 am

This corona virus, COVID-19, may make small antigenic drifts in its spike as human immune system antibodies driven selection force small changes over time. But cellular immunity of T cells is much more robust to preventing a severe new infection in the same person even with a slightly shifting spike antigen, thus allowing a minor cold-like presentation of symptoms that lasts only a few days.
As hed immunity builds in the human population above 50% the virus epidemic will rapidly begin to contract, and above 80%, the virus runs into immune individuals at such a frequency that community transmission grinds to halt, with only sporadic cases occurring.

But wholesale genomic “antigenic shifts” like we see in type A influenza are unlikely to happen in Corona viruses. Corona viruses genome exists as a single ~30Kb-long nucleotide RNA sequence, unlike the 8 individual segments of the influenza genome that can and do reassort (mixed segments coming together from two different strains) to make a new strain to which the their is little pre-existing immunity.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 13, 2020 12:14 pm

So ‘herd immunity’ is the reason for the delayed response in western countries. Enough people NEED to get resistance in order to have the population as a whole being protected for possible future varieties.

More about ‘herd immunity’:

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 3:34 pm

I heard today that Corona immunity is given only for a few month. After a year or so, you can be infected again.

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 4:45 pm

Krishna, how could that be known?

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 5:08 pm

How would anyone know that?
The first cases were only 3 months ago. Nobody has been recovered for much more than a month, much less a year.

jim hogg
Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 5:59 pm

The herd immunity project is only being pursued in the UK, where the government is (or was until tonight – the pressure is now on) prepared to tolerate several hundred thousand deaths to achieve 60% infection by the SARS_cov_2 virus and thereafter herd immunity. Which of course would be pointless if it doesn’t become seasonal. It’s also a pointless exercise if they don’t achieve the herd immunity threshold. Social darwinism at work, or alternatively simple moral decay. If the US is trying to stop it in its tracks it will need to get a grip very fast, and stopping flights from the UK should be given a high priority.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 13, 2020 12:18 pm

errata: Herd immunity, not “hed immunity”

Roger Knights
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 14, 2020 2:48 am

erratum? (-;

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 11:38 am


Remdesivir and chloroquine are showing great promise, also many companies already have vaccines ready for testing for example, Medicago, who have proven that they can make vaccines within 20days and they work…

Also, I’m from the uk, and no way will 40 million be infected, china was just over 80 thousand out of 1.3 billion. Italy roughly 10 thousand out of 60 million.

Bryan A
Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 12:32 pm

Careful Sunny
The Rubenesque Songstress has yet to vocalize
Italy is now over 15,000 infected with 1016 Deaths and 1046 recoveries

Reply to  Bryan A
March 13, 2020 1:12 pm

Bryan A

I truly do not understand why italy has been hit so hard, could TB be the actual result of a lot of deaths?

Reply to  Bryan A
March 13, 2020 2:43 pm

Sunny, TB takes YEARS to kill, and it doesn’t cause ‘ordinary’ pneumonia.

The explosive development in Italy is probably due to the epidemic spreading for at least 2-3 weeks undetected until people started dying at alarming rates.
A high average age and a large proportion of multi-generation households is probably also factors.

Reply to  Bryan A
March 13, 2020 2:52 pm

Italy is country where lot of families with three and on rare occasions even four generations still live together in their ancestral homes. Italy has oldest population in Europe and second in the world after Japan. Italian diet is very healthy, not much red meat (too expensive), each meal has good content of vegetables and olive oil including moderate but healthy wine drinking accompanying the main meal of the day. Having around younger members of household means that the old are well look after, seldom lonely and most of time happy, all good imprudence for long life.
Many younger people most likely got infected on public transport (Milan is usually full of Chinese tourists mainly there for high fashion purchases), or place of work and habitual endless kissing between both males and females. Often without showing any or very mild symptoms younger people would inadvertently take virus back home infecting their elderly parents or grandparents, hence high rate of infection and mostly among elderly, the high death rate.

Reply to  Bryan A
March 13, 2020 3:40 pm

It’s told, that Italy didn’t find patient 0, trhey know not exactly if the first infected came from Iran or Germany via Munich.

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
March 13, 2020 10:44 pm

10 hours later and Italy is up to 17,660 infected and 1,246 deaths.
+2500 infected and +230 deaths in 10 hours.
Probably issues with reporting timeliness

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 12:25 pm

do not even call the emergency if you not really sick
very good one measure

Reply to  Vuk
March 13, 2020 5:50 pm

I don’t know where you got your age vs. mortality data. The best I’ve seem comes from a Swiss university group:

Their rates are slightly higher than yours.

The problem is that the course of the disease after symptoms appear until either recovery or… not, is long, median of 18 days in the Swiss paper. Even for Korea, which started testing early in very large numbers, more than 90% of known cases are unresolved at the present time. So if you don’t believe the numbers coming out of China, there’s very little real data to go on for the next several weeks. Hang onto your hat….

stephen parker
Reply to  Vuk
March 14, 2020 12:11 am

Yep vuk, seems like the UK govt response is to protect the Economy first, and if you stop testing well no one knows how bad it is. Will Boris get away with it?

March 13, 2020 10:32 am

A chinese paper on chloroquine

Is seems we have the drugs that help people with cov19.

If the paper is wrong, my apologies

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 4:57 pm

It is hard to tell if the paper is wrong when it is all written in Chinese characters!

I was given hydroxychloroquine for arthritis in my hands. My blood pressure immediately started to skyrocket — from 120 to 160 systolic — and apparent neurological damage to leg muscles. I’ve been off the chloroquine for over a year, and while I’m slowly improving, my legs still aren’t back to normal.

Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 8:32 pm

As I understand the way chloroquine works is that it enters human cells creating lingering drops in the pH of certain cellular regions lower than the pH corona-viruses require to perform their ancillary viral processes. The virus then falters despite having gotten into the cell.

March 13, 2020 10:41 am

A variety of sources report the utterly draconian methods used to control the virus in China. Are we seriously saying we want to follow that example?


Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 11:16 am

How is it that the rest of China did not succumb to Covid 19 when around 5 million residents of Wuhan left the area prior to the travel bans?

Bryan A
Reply to  goldminor
March 13, 2020 12:37 pm

Hubei (Wuhan) is 67,000 cases (with 13,000 still active) the remainder of China has an additional 14,000 cases

Reply to  goldminor
March 13, 2020 2:53 pm

They took drastic quarantine measures in every community where Covid 19 showed up. Almost half of China was in quarantine at peak.

But apparently it worked. Though they will have to quarantine everyone coming in from abroad for a while, perhaps a long while. But chinese industry will be up and running almost full-blast again while almost everyone else is closed down….

Bill Parsons
Reply to  tty
March 13, 2020 9:03 pm

How China Dispatched the Corona Virus

Apple helped lay the groundwork for a massive and successful quarantine in China a decade ago. Hunger for information and increasing wealth of the populus did the rest.

Apple phones were status items when they were first introduced to Chinese in 2009. Their phones were purchased by many, but cheaper knock-offs followed in short order and reached into every corner of the three top-tier cities. The multi-purpose messaging and social media app “We Chat” first appeared in January, 2011. By 2013 a 7-dollar-per-month chip implanted in their phones allowed users to make cashless in-store payments by scanning a bar code. The Chinese government likely encouraged this technology which spread in spite of its risks of unfiltered information because the trade-off was a wealth of data they could harvest on users’ location, comments and habits.

81% of Chinese have made at least one “mobile proximity payment” with a smartphone in the past six months, which makes them far and away the highest percentage of touchless smartphone users in the world. By contrast only 27% of U.S. mobile users have made a recent purchase this way.

Corona virus likely has a “residence” time on surfaces of up to a day or two. But even if the virions only remain infectious for a few hours, their presence on a yuan note – or a dollar – moving from hand-to-hand would be a prime vector for its transmission in a community unused to hand-washing. Even sliding a plastic credit card through a well-used store scanner would likely carry enough of the virus to infect someone. We tend to reinforce “proper behavior” of others when we’re frightened enough, and the Chinese society seems to have readapted quickly to this old norm: cash payers there are relegated to separate lines and subject to delays and masked interrogators with thermal scanners and disinfectant.

A lot has changed since Mao’s day in China, but one thing has not: people who stand out get special attention very quickly, and neighborhood committees are vigilant. The digital technologies that the West introduced has made China ripe for social monitoring and soft manipulation. Their fast handling of the Corona virus, in spite of other unsavory health habits, is just proof that their grip on their people has changed from “hands-on” to touchless. They can still move the masses with relative ease.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Bill Parsons
March 13, 2020 11:58 pm

Chinese police now use body and head-cams with facial recognition and infrared monitors. As they walk their beats, they can detect and identify anyone with a slight fever at around 15 meters, download their position and WeChat identification code into a central record. Videos of this are being circulated by the Chinese government, touting its effectiveness. WeChat ID codes are now an accepted alternative to personal identification numbers.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  goldminor
March 13, 2020 4:25 pm

Herd immunity is the best explanation.

Reply to  goldminor
March 13, 2020 6:04 pm

The five million people from Wuhan each had a phone with a Wuhan number in it. For a while there was an app that could tell you where in Beijing (where I live) all the Wuhan mobile phones were. I’m sure a large number if not all of those phone number owners were tested.

Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 11:22 am

Seems South-Korea is on a good way.

Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 11:27 am

South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate

With 140,000 people tested, the country’s mortality rate is just over 0.6 per cent compared to the 3.4 per cent global average reported by the WHO
Various factors can influence this percentage, but scientists agree that all things being equal, it is more accurate when more people are tested

Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 13, 2020 3:00 pm

The paper above suggests a similar fatality rate of 1 per cent or a bit less.

But these numbers apply to countries where the epidemic was contained early, so that medical facilities could cope even at peak (though apparently barely so in China).

Fatality rates in countries where containment is feeble or non-existant, like in most european countries will probably be several times higher. In e. g. Sweden the medical system is already very severely strained with only a few hundred cases.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 13, 2020 5:56 pm

See my post above. Korea has no idea what its ultimate mortality will be. More than 90% of identified cases are “active” (neither recovered nor dead). You can’t divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases *NOW* and have a meaningful result. You need to divide it by the known cases from several weeks ago.

A C Osborn
Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 11:34 am

I agree, I am sure their death rate in Huwan was in the 10s of thousands with people dead in the streets and in their own homes.
I do not believe their “official” numbers at all.

Jay Mock
March 13, 2020 10:58 am

Hyping the cov19 has similarities to hyping climate change. Even though it’s a hot topic of conversation it’s just not that big a deal. Climate Change and cov19 will make lots of money for lots of people to the detriment of an even larger number people.

The Swine Flu ‘Pandemic’ Was Officially a Hoax, Corona Virus Probably is Too. Big Pharma Stands to Profit, Again

And see this graph: comment image

March 13, 2020 11:14 am
William Astley
March 13, 2020 11:27 am

I heard there will be an announcement that the US will be working with all of the developed countries to fast track a vaccine. (Perhaps it will be included in the President’s 3:00 pm Eastern, announcement of the US public emergency).

We need some good news. Partial country shutdowns is not good news.

We need to restart local daily life.

Reply to  William Astley
March 13, 2020 11:59 am

William Astley

A pentagon funded company has a vaccine all ready to go, it was made within 20 days, and the company has a very good record for vaccine production… Along side many other companies, they should have a vaccine ready

Bryan A
Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 12:39 pm

I can hear the Anti-Vaxers right now

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 12:44 pm

It is not a tested and validated method. Far from it.
That certainly doesn’t mean simply making a virus protein using plant genetics then the protein injected with an adjuvant is effective at preventing a productive infection.

Lessons from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine efforts in the 1960’s urge extreme caution to this “protein only” vaccine approach.

What was found in the RSV vaccine after decades of research must noit be forgotten or overlooked. Immunity to a respiratory system infecting virus like RSV or Conrona virus is systems level immunity. Focusing on only one part of immunity (humoral – antibody) is huge mistake waiting to happen.
We could easily end up with a vaccine, like in the case of RSV vaccine in the 1960’s, that enhances Corona virus symptoms and sequelae.

Scenario to be avoided at all costs with a novel “vaccine”: enhanced COVID-19 disease (ECD) as the result of immunization with antigens not processed in the cytoplasm, resulting in a nonprotective antibody response and CD4+ T helper priming in the absence of cytotoxic T lymphocytes.
Antigens in this case would be the viral proteins then injected with an adjuvant to elicit an immune response. The immune response could then enhance COVID -19 infections unless an effective, robust cytotoxic T cell response is also induced by the vaccine components.

The only vaccine I would take to a human trial would be an attenuated COVID-19 virus with the 3′ RNA coding regions for its accessory proteins completely deleted or filled in with numerous translation “stop” codons.

Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 1:03 pm

That site actually says: “Medicago CEO Bruce Clark said his company could produce as many as 10 million doses a month. If regulatory hurdles can be cleared, he said in a Thursday interview, the vaccine could start to become available in November 2021.” which seems quite a time to wait.

March 13, 2020 11:52 am

The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions

If they are right about the reproductive number, R0 is 3.86 it, is more contagious than initially reported. It is necessary to reduce it to below 1.0 to stop the spread. Seems like drastic measures of social separation is needed.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
March 13, 2020 1:57 pm

Their testing was also seriously under-counting in the initial stages. Later method increased the number of detected cases by a factor of about 2.6 .

Slowing the spread simply delays the peak and delays the tail off, thus making the flux of patients more manageable: see “flattening the curve”.

Joel O'Bryan
March 13, 2020 12:17 pm

This virus is firmly entrenched in those communities and will low level propagate even through the NH summer. Until herd immunity reaches ~80% it will continue to circulate for years.

Human population “Herd immunity” will be built two ways, (1) natural infection with the virus and (hopefully) (2) a vaccine that delivers a host-developed humoral immunity (B-cells/plasma cells making Ig) that also combines a cellular immunity component (T cells) to broader corona virus infections.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 13, 2020 6:28 pm


I’ve been reading about the virus all week and don’t know who to believe. Went to the CDC website and read up on the H1N1 pandemic. In the US :

“From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.”

” Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Many schools were closed but no comparison to the cancellations we see for Covid-19.

What should/could be expect from the world’s actions that we are seeing now?

March 13, 2020 12:19 pm

I don’t believe anything that comes out of China. Everything is controlled by the CCP.

March 13, 2020 12:26 pm

Does anyone have access to a historic global, regional and national dataset of deaths so a ‘big data’ analysis can seek the fingerprint of previous unknown pandemics. Or does such a study already exist?

Reply to  son of mulder
March 13, 2020 12:40 pm

son of mulder

Here it is chapter and Verse

There is a pile of information available from WHO on each country as well as global averages. Causes of death tend to vary somewhat from country to country, although some like heart disease and cancers tend to be top causes of death in most countries.

Flu and associated pneumonia also tends to feature highly and puts Covid 19 into context. It is unlikely to feature as a top 10 cause in any country, flu will outdistance it

Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 1:59 pm

This CSV dataset on the right hand sidepart down of the page is extremely interesting at least back to 1990 from 2017. Analysis is required but certainly when 2020 is over it will be interesting to see if 2020 is anomolous for respiratory deaths compared for the past 30 years.

Reply to  tonyb
March 13, 2020 2:01 pm

Many Thanks Tonyb

Bob Koss
March 13, 2020 12:42 pm

I think all the hype is way overblown.

S. Korea seems to be doing the best job of testing. They issue a daily press release which can be found here. Has charts by region and also by sex and age.

They’ve tested more than 230,000 people as of Mar 13. I presume they have some reason for administering a test. Surely they aren’t doing it randomly. Probably using such things as exhibiting symptoms or close association with a symptomatic person or group.

Out of that 230,000 they have found only 7979 confirmed cases. That indicates a modest transmission rate of about 3.5%. Of those confirmed, the fatality rate for men is 1.28%, for women 0.57%, combine is 0.84%. The fatality rate by age goes from 0.12% at age 30-39 to 8.3% for age 80 and up.

Fatality rate of confirmed cases by age group.
No deaths any younger

I’m in the 70-79 category, but I’m not going to be altering my lifestyle very much until I have a confirmed case.

Keith Rowe
Reply to  Bob Koss
March 13, 2020 1:08 pm

The fatalities were almost entirely on people with other health problems. From heart to respiratory to cancer to diabetes, only 0.9% had a fatality in heathy people in the people tested.

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Wim Röst
Reply to  Bob Koss
March 13, 2020 3:00 pm

Bob Koss: “the fatality rate for men is 1.28%, for women 0.57%, combine is 0.84%.”

WR: OK, that is for South Korea. But in China the numbers for closed cases (most cases are closed right now) are quite different: 64,152 (95%) Recovered / Discharged and 3,177 (5%) Deaths. Cases still active: 13,486.

For Italy present numbers are in no way in line with the Korean numbers:

There are different ‘strains’ of the virus. Perhaps that makes the difference.

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 5:14 pm

Please provide evidence for the claim that there are different strains of this virus.

mario lento
Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 5:17 pm

MarkW: There are several strains. Source CDC.
Common human coronaviruses
229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses
MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 9:34 pm

Those are all corona viruses, they aren’t different strains of this virus which is the COVID-19 virus.

mario lento
Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 11:10 pm

Mark W, Covid 19 is a corona virus. Stands for [Co]rona [Vi]rus [D]isease 20[19]. Look it up. SARS is also caronavirus. It was named to get rid of the Wuhan reference.

Wim Röst
Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 6:09 pm

MarkW: “Please provide evidence for the claim that there are different strains of this virus”

WR: On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 9:36 pm

The notion that there is an ‘L’ and an ‘S’ strain of this virus is controversial, to say the least.

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 10:08 pm

Report cited probably gives us the reason Italian death rate is higher than most other countries beside China. Italy, unlike USA for example [due to President Trump’s early blockage of flights from China, as compared to North Italy Milan’s international airport] had extensive Chinese air linkages when the “Wuhan” corona-virus was blossoming (including pre-quarantine Wuhan).

Report relates that the “L” strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus (the L refers to it’s distinct involvement of a leucine codon) was the more prevalent early strain of the “Wuhan” corona-virus; thus what Italy got more of than countries exposed relatively later. Apparently this is the more aggressive strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus & in time, despite it’s initial predominance, this “L” strain became proportionally less of the later Wuhan cases.

The other strain is being called the “S” strain of “Wuhan” corona-virus (the S refers to it’s distinct involvement of a serine codon). Although deemed an more primary (ancestral) strain of the”Wuahn” corona-virus it was not the most prevalent strain found early on in Wuhan (however this “S” strain always was a percentage of the early Wuhan cases).

O.K., so where these 2 strains show relevant variation between each other is in two factors. One of these is “…orflab … [which] … encodes replicase/transcriptase … for viral genome replication … important … pathogenesis ….” The other one is : “…ORF8 promotes … ER … [ endoplasmic reticulum] … unfolded protein response….”

To me this indicates that the relatively earlier predominating “Wuhan” corona-virus strain (“L”) was more aggressively spread & furthermore it’s pathogenesis (ex: orflab encoding) is more severe. This is reflected in the recent Italian mortality rate as compared to farther flung countries.

South Korea’s & Japan’s proximity to “Wuhan” corona-virus epi-center may not be resulting in dramatically high mortality because their exposure was more to the less aggressive strain (“S”) . Their number of reported cases grew before Italy’s, but bear in mind that even though early in Wuhan’s outbreak not all infected got the aggressive strain (“L”).
Presumably “patient zero” in Korea/Japan spread the strain with the more benign “orflab” & “ORF8” profiles.

To round out this paradigm the report also mentions human case(s) where found (find) infection with both the “L” & “S” strains of the “Wuhan” corona-virus. Presumably people with this dual infection have a more complicated prognosis than (say) if just got the less aggressive “S” strain.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 11:07 pm

Explains the “L” mutation from its original “S” ancestry. He’s very good, although the interchangeable use of types, strains, mutations and forms doesn’t add clarity.

Reply to  Bob Koss
March 13, 2020 3:08 pm

“That indicates a modest transmission rate of about 3.5%. ”

No, aninfection rate of more than 3.5% (there are lots of false negatives).

Of the tested sub-population which, as you noted, was not random.

Ed Zuiderwijk
March 13, 2020 12:53 pm

The most interesting result is that they found that only 40% of infections became visible with 60% not being picked up. That makes containment by testing practically a non-starter leaving only a complete lockdown as alternative.

One hopes that the people stop eating bats.

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 15, 2020 12:55 pm

Bats or pangolins?

March 13, 2020 12:56 pm

South Korea and China both used I V vitamin C. Works very well. Last I checked, Italy
did not.

mario lento
March 13, 2020 1:08 pm

I take several forms of vitamin C along with 1 gram 3 x a day of pure ascorbic acid. As well 3 x day Cal Mag Zn, for the balanced Zn, Curcumin formula for inflamation, along with fish oil, some other fats like astazanthin, and some other wellness formula in high dose whenever I am sick. When lungs are affected, I take guaifenesin, which really helps keep moisture in lungs and helps a productive gentle cough. That and lots of water, in small amounts through many servings.

My Covid 19 hit my lungs including with immediate fever lasted together for 5 solid days and then all symptoms were gone. I did not get a bacterial infection, as my phlegm was clear. Cough was not that productive, but lungs sounded rumbly and weazie making sleeping and breathing difficult. I usually get a sinus issues and sore throat before a lung problem. This time, only lungs and it came on strong and fast. I have another week of keeping out of public to make sure I am clear!

I used a rescue inhaler to keep my lungs open.

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 2:51 pm

Thanks for that info, glad you are improving,
Best wishes from all at WUWT

mario lento
Reply to  saveenergy
March 13, 2020 3:50 pm

Thank you WUWT! I feel extremely well in contrast. Something I learned, that I think we can all benefit from. The news from Harvard,

That I am taking, is that after symptoms are gone, it’s “possible” that one could still be contagious for several weeks. Out of an abundance of caution, I am isolating. I can work remotely so no big deal for me.

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 6:51 pm


I took high doses of ascorbic acid 3x/day for a difficult respiratory issue that inhalers of all kinds didn’t help. One thing to remember, if you take too much too soon you poop your pants from the IBS which can attack very quickly!!

mario lento
Reply to  Polski
March 13, 2020 11:02 pm

Yes, Ascorbic acid needs to combine with a mineral before you can absorb it. So it will give you the runs unless you take mineral ascorbates. Think Emergen-C. With that you can probably eat 10 to 12 grams of it. But there is too much sugar and they have vitamin b12 in them which keeps me up at night.

The trick is to find the point where you get the runs and calibrate below that. But I also take it with Ca citrate, magnesium and zinc, which helps replenish minerals.

Stephen W
Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 3:14 pm

Sounds the same as my flu I had two weeks ago.
I didn’t get tested for Covid-19.

mario lento
Reply to  Stephen W
March 13, 2020 3:55 pm

Hi Stephen W: I asked about it and they were not all that concerned, but also there was no ability for them to test. The nasal swab did show negative for FLU A/B and they deduced it was viral. They even offered antibiotics for the prolonged fever, which I am loathe to take. I am certain it was not also bacterial since never was there any discolored phlegm and the symptoms pretty much stopped at the same time the fever broke after 5 days. The recovery from that point on was miraculous… and had I taken the antibiotics, I would have assumed they were the trick. Glad you are over it and better!

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 3:24 pm


Thank god you are better now, I wish you the best and a full speedy recovery.

mario lento
Reply to  Sunny
March 13, 2020 3:57 pm

Sunny: Thank you. I feel 100%! Just being cautious for others sake… which is not that difficult since I am fortunate with a good home setup for business.

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 7:20 pm

Good for you. I can’t handle large doses of ascorbic acid; bothers my digestive system. So I ground it up and mixed it with sodium bicarbonate, and that helped a lot. I’ve since gone to calcium ascorbate.

mario lento
Reply to  icisil
March 13, 2020 11:04 pm

I had not thought of that, baking soda but yes, calcium and sodium… which is OK if you’re sweating out the sodium! Ascorbates will let you tolerate much more and go more quickly into your blood.

March 13, 2020 12:58 pm

Probably many more suicides will develop in the general global population, than any mortality in those of the middle aged demographics from COVID-19 just because they are going to lose their jobs, and maybe their cars/houses because of the cratering of the economy, some of which appears to be engineered by foreign interests intent on either causing general mischief or putting North American production of shale oil and oil sands out of business. Crime will soar, drug abuse will be rampant, and all hope will be lost when the economy falters because of these unfortunate events. Just who might have a grievance against the USA and the West? China, Russia, Iran, and just maybe MBS is an inbred nut job that went along with this, to disrupt the economies of the West thinking that SA will capture some more market share. We should never forget what just happened; revenge is a dish best served cold.

Reply to  Earthling2
March 13, 2020 1:39 pm

You really need to check with your supplier. You seem to have been given some really bad stuff this time.

March 13, 2020 1:02 pm


Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and intervention

Very silly dumb conclusion.
The countermeasures in question, were taken simply because Wuhan happened to be the first place,
the first stage.
Data at that point was too little for a proper assessment, showing also a high severity and high fatality.
China did the best it could responsibly at that time, for the best of it’s people and world, and because it could do it.
How effective that was, not quite easy to claim.

In consideration of this happening, it is mathematically impossible for any other nation there to claim the same.

Now, that more and better data have come in, China is dropping the ball in consideration of such measures, simply because not need it,
also too expensive and even non effective, not any more.

They did a good brave thing with the countermeasures.
The rest of the world shall be thankful to such an act, and really consider it for what it was,
and stop exploiting it in silly dumb ways, that cause more confusion, caos and unjustifiable extra burden and losses.


Bro. Steve
March 13, 2020 1:07 pm

This thing has been ridiculously over-hyped by a media culture that profits from panic, by a corporate culture that spends every hour quaking in (justifiable) fear of lawyers and rogue courts should they make a misstep, and by a government that never lets a crisis go to waste.

Relax people. Life has risks. Go live it anyway. In the end, no matter how sharp you are, nobody gets out of here alive.

March 13, 2020 2:10 pm

China did the best it could responsibly at that time, for the best of it’s people and world,

China does not do things for “the rest of the world”.

March 13, 2020 2:18 pm

China has seen a big drop in new cases, and only one I Beijing which was from somebody who came back from the usa. Maybe that’s why Trump said 8 weeks, and his advisors said it will pass over like it has in china.

March 13, 2020 2:18 pm

“Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan has been controlled”

I hope so, but given uneasy relationship between the current Chinese leadership and the truth, I need some other form of confirmation.

Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 9:07 pm

“I hope so, but given uneasy relationship between the current Chinese leadership and the truth, I need some other form of confirmation.”
Same could be said for the “it’ll be gone soon, and we have plenty of testing kits, and numbers are falling in the US, and it’s all Obama’s fault” US government.

Reply to  Simon
March 13, 2020 9:38 pm

You just can’t get over the fact that your candidate lost.

BTW, I just love the way socialists can’t deal with reality or proportionality.

Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 10:37 pm

I think it is time for you to move on Mark. There is an election this year and what is happening now is relevant, not what happened four years ago.

March 13, 2020 2:35 pm

The Chinese are not subtle but, by God, they are effective.

March 13, 2020 3:33 pm

It is my understanding that many older people in China live with their children. This is cultural and also due to the children having much higher living standards and income than previous generation. Could this have caused the deaths and infections in Wuhan ?

Michael in Dublin
March 13, 2020 4:14 pm

At the time of writing the 12 European countries with most infections (with a total population slightly larger than that of the USA) puts matters into perspective:
The cases in the USA make up a little more than 6% of those in the European countries
The fatalities in the USA make up a little more than 3% of those in the European countries

An honest person will admit that Trump’s team is working very hard. The alarmism of politicians and journalists appears to be an attempt to discredit him for their purely selfish political reasons. The fact is that many of the elderly who die because of the virus would even without it not live for many more years.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
March 13, 2020 9:39 pm

First cases in Europe were a week or two ahead of the US.

March 13, 2020 4:17 pm

According to the Johns Hopkins site, there have been 33 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. to date. This is strange because there were 40 yesterday. I guess some of the causes of death were reclassified, some people came back to life or the severity of the illness really is exaggerated.

Reply to  Scissor
March 13, 2020 6:13 pm

Various sites with statistics do not agree with one another.

22 Deaths are from “Life Care Center” – a nursing home in Kirkland Washington. (King County)

Hope that adds some perspective.

Reply to  Scissor
March 13, 2020 6:36 pm

Seems like they found those dead people and a couple of more.

Michael in Dublin
March 13, 2020 4:22 pm

I heard a radio report that medication used for inflammation for another medical problem was successfully used in patients with the virus in two countries. Sorry, I cannot remember further details. It may we worth looking into. Perhaps someone can give a link to a written report?

mario lento
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
March 13, 2020 4:38 pm

Dan Bongino and guest, Stem cells… I take 3 doses a day of curcumin / black pepper, fish oil and some other foods that really quell overactive inflammatory response.

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 6:38 pm


The healthier you are the better. People with any respiratory ailments, diabetes, heart conditions even high blood pressure apparently are at risk. Fever is a way your immune system tries to fight infections. I guess the reason why older people are at risk.

mario lento
Reply to  Polski
March 13, 2020 7:26 pm

Yes I agree. I’ve grown up with asthma and allergies and did not eat well (too much candy since I worked at the age of 12 and could buy what I wanted). My doctor at 12 years old, told me not to exert myself. Stubbornly, my dad told me to job from telephone poll to poll, and then walk and so on. I sneaked at the drug drop and bought primatene tablets which made it possible and then I weened myself off. The gym teacher drafted me to the track team in Jr High and then I had no more asthma… Unless I got sick, then my lungs were attacked. Anyway as an adult, I’ve learned to eat certain nutrients and exercise – hoping that I can keep it up so that is not what gets me when I am in my 80s.

Reply to  mario lento
March 13, 2020 7:24 pm

Don’t neglect vitamin D (with vit K) for modulating immune response.

March 13, 2020 4:29 pm

I wondered why had Italy 5 or 6x the cases as Spain or France had. A report I saw, stated that all the leather goods companies in N. Italy had been sold to the Chinese, They ,as is their manner, had brought in 100,000 Chinese workers. Q.E.D

Reply to  epworth
March 14, 2020 1:32 pm

Interesting, I had read that it is thought that a likely explanation for the Spanish flu was that the UK brought in several hundred thousand Chinese workers to help in the war effort die to a shortage of manpower. The UK did have one of the first deaths associated with that pandemic.

Steven Mosher
March 13, 2020 4:49 pm

good to see you folks here are finally listening.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 13, 2020 5:17 pm

Poor steve, he just can’t let go of his irrational prejudices.
That and his need to take large group of people and stuff all of them into unflattering boxes of his own design.

Reply to  MarkW
March 13, 2020 7:24 pm

Biden and his team will take full control. I think he might have said that he would follow China’s model and harvest plasma from infected prisoners and stem cells from babies to be aborted.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 14, 2020 3:15 am

“good to see you folks here are finally listening.”

Well, the next-most-popular (?) climate contrarian website, JoNova’s, has not only been listening but sounding the alarm (responsibly and with good links and data) from January.

March 13, 2020 6:06 pm

Re this Coronavirus BS. Einstein said something like “I dont know if the universe is infinite but I do know for certain that humans are infinitely stupid” Humans have just wasted billions on a nothing burger just like climate change

Wim Röst
March 13, 2020 6:20 pm

This analysis (and explanation) is a MUST READ for everyone:

From the article:
This is what you can conclude:
• Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

Reply to  Wim Röst
March 14, 2020 1:28 pm

I have been watching the daily numbers for the last several weeks using this site, …

An observation is that the death rate is initially high for a nation, then is reduced as more cases are found. Iran had an initial death ration of 10% to 12%. Now it is down to 5% which is still a high rate. Italy has the worst numbers at 7%. The new cases today are at 3,500, still growing daily. They have jumped into second place for having the highest case load over the last 5 days. Those are the two worst hit nations outside of China.

Then there are a number of nations with very low death rates. Makes me wonder if Italy/Iran were hit with a more deadly variation of the virus.

March 13, 2020 6:37 pm

Re this Coronavirus BS. Einstein said something like “I dont know if the universe is infinite but I do know for certain that humans are infinitely stupid” Humans have just wasted billions on a nothing burger virus just like climate change. It seems to me that Australians, English and Irish (and USA democrats) have become notoriously stupid and backward from being before great countries with great people. They seems to thrive on misery and bad news nothing is positive for them. Glad I left and live in South America a looong loong time ago where people are actually happy and have a life. BTW my 2 cents worth cheers

March 13, 2020 6:38 pm

I have posted on Wuhanvirus several times here previously.

To push aside racist naysayers, it did begin in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, in late 2019. The mechanism was bats to pangolins to humans in a Wuhan wet market. The PC virus name is now SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting fatal respiratory disease is CoViD-19. AKA Wuhan virus.

Latest mortality data (several previous posts) based on the ‘experimental’ Diamond Princess ‘experiment as reported from Japan. The data ‘corrects’ mortality/ recovered outcomes number from for the undiagnosed as yet uncertain case denominator.

So, when Japan published the final Diamond Princess report last week, there were 705 total PCR diagnosed, 392 symptomatic (fever >100F) and 313 ‘asymptomatic’. That last value is skewed high, so alarm maybe also high. Elderly cruisers are more susceptible, and some ‘negatives’ presented symptoms later in Nebraska. But is the best actual ‘experimental’ data we have now. Based on that ‘fact’ denomination correction, we have the following CFR (case mortality outcomes, deaths/ recovered):
Last Thursday and each day following:
3.4 same as WHO the day before, perhaps coincidentally.

Notice this consistent and fact based albeit negatively biased method is NOT a good trend, and NOT media reported.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 13, 2020 8:10 pm


What are you using for the fatality numbers for the Diamond Princess?

The WHO numbers as of today are 696 infected and 7 dead. That gives a fatality rate similar to China outside Hubei Province, which the survey report estimated as 0.7%. As you note, fatality rates vary by demographics of the group infected and other factors.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 14, 2020 3:22 am

“AKA Wuhan virus.”

AKA Wu-Flu.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 15, 2020 12:50 pm

How do you KNOW the “mechanism”?

March 13, 2020 7:33 pm

For a look at the 1918-1920 Flu Pandemic, see 100 Years Later: The Flu.

March 13, 2020 8:03 pm

Note that WHO reported this in mid-February. I posted their reports here on Feb 23 and Feb 25, to very loud comments of denial.

Just more examples here of similar behavior as that of climate extremists – which is condemned here. Not much self-awareness. Sad, really.

Paul Redfern
March 13, 2020 9:02 pm

A doctor on Lou Dobbs the other day had been in China studying what they did. Blood plasma from a person recovering from the coronavirus can be used to treat 3 other people who are sick. This is what we used to do before we had antibiotics and it has proven effective in China. A Chinese colleague of the doctor sent him the paper. We can do this now.

Reply to  Paul Redfern
March 13, 2020 11:54 pm

Hi P. Redfern, – This viral treatment using a plasma tactic is not new; probably not a panacea for this Wuhan coronavirus. If want to see some of the limitations (& improvements) there is relevant data for 80 corona-virus patients reported in (2005) free full text on-line of : “Use of convalescent plasma therapy in SARS patients in Hong Kong”.

This “convalescent plasma” tactic has had research published for use with other viruses (ex: influenza). And there are other reports related to it’s use in SARS besides the above cited study.

Michael Carter
March 14, 2020 12:09 am

Who collects and issues the data in China?

With the inevitable leakage from the lock-downs and vast semi-rural areas with poor medical facilities China’s Fat Lady ain’t singing yet

Wake up chaps

Roger Knights
March 14, 2020 2:33 am

Here’s an excellent article, deeper and wider in parts than much else I’ve read:

“What Will You Do If You Start Coughing? “Stay home” is not a sufficient plan”
The Atlantic Mar 11 · 12 min read

March 14, 2020 10:31 am

Where there is no social distancing – “This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people”

“A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus
March 9, 2020 by Robert
Data from the Diamond Princess cruise suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people and not as deadly as we think.

Here are excerpts from an article by Jeremy Samuel Faust entitled COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think.

“The most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise…

“A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus.

“In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases.

“During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke.

“This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low).

“On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent…. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died.

“(In other words) The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

“In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic.

“… another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients (on the Diamond Princess) were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that … many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises.

“This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported.”

March 14, 2020 12:52 pm

problem with relying on data from a source known to fudge data is….you got a real good chance of having a fudged outcome.
stay calm, practice good hygiene, avoid risky situations.
IOW act like you should always be acting anyways.

March 14, 2020 4:39 pm

I think that, yes this disease is very serious, but I believe that the so called cure is much worse than the virus. Hysteria , paranoia, misinformation and on and on. Have you noticed as well, that the hardest hit parts of the globe are mostly the most affluent? In part, I think that we in the most sanitized regions have compromised immune systems that do not enable to fight off new strains like the corona virus.

March 15, 2020 12:09 pm

It was well known in Soviet Union and other dirty and poor countries that the tourists most often ill where the Americans; far later, the West Europeans. The ones from poor countries were the strongest ones.

The Americans (those who travel) had very weak immunity.

Joe Ebeni
March 15, 2020 5:57 am

In case folks haven’t seen. Queueing theory and epidemics

Gompertz Curve
Queuing theory and epidemiology

A lot of public comment has been about “flattening the curve” which is really an effort to control arrival rate. I wonder if just as much effort has been taken to manage dwell times/ service times etc.

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