CDC Covid-19 – Possible US Case of Chinese Corona Virus from an Unknown Source

MERS Corona Virus, part of the same family as the Chinese Corona Virus. By Maureen Metcalfe/Cynthia Goldsmith/Azaibi Tamin – https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/photos.html, Public Domain, Link

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

CDC efforts to contain the Chinese Corona Virus in the USA have focussed on identifying chains of infection and isolating everyone who might have come in contact with infected people. But a case of Chinese Corona Virus infection has appeared in California, without an obvious chain of infection, prompting fears the virus may be spreading undetected in the community.

CDC Confirms Possible First Instance of COVID-19 Community Transmission in California 

Date: February 26, 2020
Number: NR20-006
Contact: Corey Egel | 916.440.7259 | CDPHpress@cdph.ca.gov

SACRAMENTO – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today confirmed a possible first case of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 in California in the general public. The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County. The individual had no known exposure to the virus through travel or close contact with a known infected individual. 

California has a strong health care system and public health infrastructure. California has prepared for the potential spread of diseases, such as H1N1, in the past and is prepared and actively responding to the potential community spread of COVID-19. Contact tracing in this case has already begun. 

The health risk from novel coronavirus to the general public remains low at this time. While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate. From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80 percent do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date. California is carefully assessing the situation as it evolves. 

“Keeping Californians safe and healthy is our number one priority,” said Dr. Sonia Angell, Director of the California Department of Public Health and State Public Health Officer. “This has been an evolving situation, which California has been monitoring and responding to since COVID-19 cases first emerged in China last year. This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know. We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California. That’s why California has been working closely with federal and local partners, including health care providers and hospitals, since the outbreak was first reported in China — and we are already responding.” 

As in any public health emergency, the Department of Public Health’s Emergency Operations Center has been actively coordinating response efforts across the state and preparing for possible community transmission. California continues to prepare and respond in coordination with federal and local partners. 

This would be the first known instance of person-to-person transmission in the general public in the United States. Previously known instances of person-to-person transmission in the United States include one instance in Chicago, Illinois, and one in San Benito County, California. Both cases were after close, prolonged interaction with a family member who returned from Wuhan, China and had tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by novel coronavirus. As of today, including this case, California has had 7 travel-related cases, one close contact case, and now one community transmission. 

As with any virus, especially during the flu season, the Health Department reminds you there are a number of steps you can take to protect your health and those around you: 

  •  Washing hands with soap and water. 
  • Avoiding touching eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands. 
  •  Avoiding close contact with people who are sick are all ways to reduce the risk of infection with a number of different viruses. 
  • Staying away from work, school or other people if you become sick with respiratory symptoms like fever and cough. 

The California Department of Public Health will not be providing additional information about this patient due to patient confidentiality. For more information about novel coronavirus, please visit the CDPH website.  

Source: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-006.aspx

How do you prepare for a virus?

The most important thing is not to panic. Panic is useful if you need an extra burst of speed to escape a hungry lion, but it messes up your ability to think clearly. Panic does not help you think your way to safety.

At the same time, don’t ignore this.

My personal response has been to buy a few extra tins of food, stock up with a month worth of non-perishable food. Almost exactly the same precautions I take when my district is threatened by floods and storms.

Make sure that if you have to lock your front door for a few weeks, you won’t go hungry. And don’t run out of toilet paper, like we almost did in 2013 when we were cut off by floods.

What else should we do? Personally I’m continuing to go about my normal life. Because bills still have to be paid, and life goes on.

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February 27, 2020 4:32 pm

COULD it start like this? A pandemic I mean, with a faulty water supply?

“Houston, Texas under boil-water notice”

“Houston residents are asked to boil water for personal use from city taps for the next 24 hours, city officials announced Feb. 27.

The boil-water notice was issued in accordance with Texas Commission on Environmental Quality regulations because of low water pressure throughout much of Houston’s supply, Mayor Sylvester Turner said at a media briefing.”

https://communityimpact.com/houston/heights-river-oaks-montrose/environment/2020/02/27/houston-under-boil-water-notice-after-massive-water-line-break/

niceguy
February 27, 2020 5:35 pm

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate”

15% of people diagnosed in Italy died and that’s “low mortality”???!!!!

A lot less than 0.01 % of those with measles die in any country with average decent health, and most of the ones who die were not a in good health to begin with, and that’s less for countries with an efficient modern medical system, and measles is a major danger for the US according to the VERY SAME BUFFOONS.

MarkW
Reply to  niceguy
February 27, 2020 7:57 pm

It’s too early to tell what the death rate in Italy is going to be, they are only testing the sickest patients to confirm the presence of CO-19. Testing of everybody who shows symptoms won’t be starting for awhile.

niceguy
Reply to  MarkW
February 27, 2020 9:05 pm

At the end, who cares what the “rate” is?

It’s a useless “metric”. It’s a number. It doesn’t tell anything, at least not alone. And with other numbers, it allows you to go back to the number of serious cases, so…

February 27, 2020 5:41 pm

I have plenty of food for 30 days.
Actually probably enough for 60 days if I count what I have in my RV.
If I just want to eat rice and beans, probably 90 days.

It’s the beer supply that I’m worried about.

Editor
February 27, 2020 5:58 pm
Brandon
Reply to  David Middleton
February 27, 2020 6:49 pm

That chart is dominated by the Chinese figures. China had to shut down a significant portion of their economy to do that. Need to look at infection rate ex-China to get a sense about current spread in ROW. It’s still pretty close to exponential, but I can’t figure out how to include an image like you did above.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 27, 2020 7:29 pm

Oh… I agree. And, y’all “down under” need to be even more vigilant than we do. But, this is the textbook example of how to constrain an infection.

Reply to  David Middleton
February 27, 2020 8:23 pm

Quarantines can only last so long.
The textbook way to constrain an epidemic of a potentially lethal human-to-human transmissible pathogen is via herd immunity delivered though vaccination.

Anything else is living in the Dark Ages.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 28, 2020 3:46 am

Vaccinations won’t work until next flu season, assuming this is seasonal.

niceguy
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 1, 2020 1:54 pm

That textbook way exists ONLY in textbooks.

Vaccines’ “herd immunity” is a scam.

(Vaccination targeted at small communities together with isolation may work.)

Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 28, 2020 12:53 pm

Need error bars, both high and low. Sorta like a hurricane ‘landfall’ projection plot …

Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Supposition: It’s been here for awhile.

Others have noted this too, so, I’m not breaking any new ground …

And, I’ve asked before – what is the false-positive rate on these ‘tests’?

icisil
Reply to  _Jim
February 28, 2020 4:24 am

You’re not likely to get an answer because people would then have to reveal the inordinate amount of faith they place in something they know little to nothing about.

Stevek
Reply to  _Jim
February 28, 2020 5:18 pm

I did some reading on PCR false positive. It can happen from human error. Essentially the lab tech contaminates the test by sloppiness by not cleaning up previous samples. The dna from previous test gets into the new patient test and produces false positive. I’m not sure of the rate or if there are any controls to detect this. I imagine if one lab is producing lots of positives then it would raise suspicion. My understanding is there would be no false positive if the RNA/DNA from the virus was not anywhere in the lab.

Reply to  Stevek
February 28, 2020 5:25 pm

Good observations and thanks for the post.

As always, it looks like the ‘human element’ figures into this sort of thing …

icisil
Reply to  Stevek
February 28, 2020 5:39 pm

The HIV tests were notorious for false positives because they cross reacted with many unrelated things, like TB, pregnancies, etc. It’s amazing how much faith people put in these tests without knowing what is really being measured.

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
March 1, 2020 2:03 pm

One anti pesticide advocacy group in France (and Europe) orchestrated an hyper publicized operation “les pisseurs” to test glyphosate in urine of celebs. They were almost all positives.

Later farmers, the people who really use Roundup (or other brands) did serious tests and most had none (or below sensitivity which was low) glyphosate in urine.

The “pisseurs” probably used crappy tests that detect glyphosate, AMPA, and probably other stuff. (Which a group of farmers on Facebook had denounced early, but they had been condemned by righteous people critical of the “pisseurs”, because the “pisseurs” test was officially for glypho not AMPA. The farmers were right and the righteous people were wrong.)

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
March 1, 2020 3:02 pm

It’s actually “Les pisseurs volontaires”

[like “les faucheurs volontaires”, the thugs that destroyed the advanced agriculture GMO research in France, with the help of the “justice” and with allies in the government – don’t dare you lecture on the so called “rule of law” in the EU, damn “european commission”!]

https://www.ecowatch.com/results-of-glyphosate-pee-test-are-in-and-its-not-good-news-1891129531.html

“”Nevertheless all investigated EU-parliament members were glyphosate contaminated. This will show glyphosate is also in the food chain of members of the EU-parliament,” the report states.”

That’s with “Elisa” garbage “tests”.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 27, 2020 6:28 pm

California should have been quarantined 20 years ago.

icisil
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 27, 2020 7:10 pm

Steven, can you find out if they’re using 60 GHz for at least part of their 5G network in Wuhan?

Reply to  icisil
February 27, 2020 8:26 pm

FFS. Please ICISIL.
Put on your tinfoil hat, and go hide in a bunker.

icisil
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 28, 2020 3:08 am

Really, Joel, Are you really that obtuse and smug in your certainty? Same exact behavior displayed by climate alarmists.

MarkW
Reply to  icisil
February 28, 2020 8:06 am

Some people leave their minds so open, that their brains have fallen out.

Your “theory” is refuted simply by thinking about it.
See my response to you above.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
February 28, 2020 11:18 am

I did see it and it’s not what I was considering at all. See my followup.

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
March 1, 2020 2:53 pm

Yes provax and warmists use the EXACT SAME “scientific” tools.

Replacing real data with proxies.
Switching proxies.
“hide the decline” changes.
Modifying definition (like “polio” which got redefined when a vaccine was made available).
Trusting known fraudsters (even people that would be arrested if they set foot in the US).
Confusing science with math, reproduction with checking math.
Dismissing reproducibility as merely a distraction.

You can’t be a climate skeptic and vaxxer, not honestly. If you claim to be, it can only be that:
– either, you are brainwashed by climate skeptics (one can be brainwashed with anything, even that the Moon landings happened: brainwashing doesn’t imply false, just dumb);
– either, you are a Big Pharma and Big Medicine shill

(Also, you must be a CDC shill. The same “experts” that pretend to know about guns.)

Reply to  niceguy
March 1, 2020 3:08 pm

re: “You can’t be a climate skeptic and vaxxer, not honestly. If you claim to be, it can only be that:”

Again ALL this from somebody who didn’t (maybe still doesn’t) know a DAMN thing about the polio epidemic in the 1950s.

You REALLY demonstrated your ignorance and impermeability to logic, reason and well-documented history THAT day “niceguy” …

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
March 1, 2020 9:31 pm

As all vaxxers, you make up claims, insults, never reply, never show any sign of intelligence…

Can you make a definitive case for at least ONE vaccine, in the context of the American population, as a given time?

Reply to  niceguy
March 1, 2020 9:50 pm

niceguy, the village idiot, wrote: ” As all vaxxers, you make up …”

No one wants to respond to you, moron.

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
March 1, 2020 9:40 pm

“Yes provax and warmists use the EXACT SAME “scientific” tools.”

Well, not exactly.

Warmist “science” is dishonest and often plain fraud (in the strict sense, as would be easy to prove even in a courtroom, as long as the judge is mentally capable, which seems to be exception) but no peer reviewed warmist “science” has the name of a FBI MOST WANTED “scientist” on it.

Supporting vaccine “science” and medical “science” in general is like supporting the idea that the FBI is credible and has merely a few bad apples but doesn’t need to be either split or simply removed.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 28, 2020 6:53 am

5G is the new Chemtrails. Don’t feed the troll.

niceguy
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
March 1, 2020 9:43 pm

And we know these radio waves are safe, because, “studies”? WHO?

J Mac
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 27, 2020 10:03 pm

Steven Mosher
February 27, 2020 at 5:49 pm
“In China and Korea contact testing is being done.
its called survellience, the first step in stopping a spread.
20000 have already been tested in Korea, we will hit 210,000 soon
On the flipside the US has a few cases. No testing, no cases. neat trick

Up post, sneering Steven says ‘no testing’ in the US, “neat trick”. Down post and 28 minutes later, Steven tells us 8400 people in California are being monitored and 33 people have tested positive. Why would anyone trust comments from someone who talks out of both sides of his mouth? ‘Neat trick,’ indeed Steven!

Steven Mosher
Reply to  J Mac
February 27, 2020 10:44 pm

“Up post, sneering Steven says ‘no testing’ in the US, “neat trick”. Down post and 28 minutes later, Steven tells us 8400 people in California are being monitored and 33 people have tested positive. Why would anyone trust comments from someone who talks out of both sides of his mouth? ‘Neat trick,’ indeed Steven!

the official testing number for the US is ~450 People.
I call that NO TESTING when compared to what UK is doing, Korea is doing,
China is doing

effectively NO TESTING..

445..
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/a-single-coronavirus-case-exposes-a-bigger-problem-the-scope-of-undetected-u-s-spread-is-unknown/

8000 Monitored is not the same as 8000 TESTED

MarkW
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 28, 2020 8:08 am

Steve seems to think that there is something magical about testing people even when you have no evidence that they have been exposed.

Like most leftists, it’s not really that he believes testing is such a big thing, he’s laying down the ground work to blame Trump.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  MarkW
March 3, 2020 3:14 pm

your funny and wrong.

you simply dont get it

oh BTW like I said

https://www.wsj.com/articles/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-outside-china-pass-10-000-11583228968

Steven Mosher
Reply to  J Mac
February 27, 2020 11:14 pm

california
200 test kits

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mt5nAgfMSE

basically no testing.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 28, 2020 1:56 am

re:

california
200 test kits

basically no testing.

Sample ‘lot’ testing; its done ALL the time in industry.

Valid statistical technique; work out the scheme to make it statistically valid, to sample your ‘lot’.

Another side of the coin: Has the question been answered on how many ‘false positives’ occur with this testing?

MarkW
Reply to  _Jim
February 28, 2020 8:09 am

I don’t know if these are the same tests being used elsewhere, but from what I have read, there have been a lot of false negatives.

Reply to  MarkW
February 28, 2020 8:31 am

re: ” there have been a lot of false negatives.”

False negatives are a concern too; It does not appear anyone has any ‘reliability’ numbers for the accuracy of these tests, nor has anyone detailed what the procedure is ‘back at the lab’ where the results are observed, analyzed …

J Mac
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 28, 2020 8:46 am

Like Bernie Sanders trying to defending the absurdity of his calling the Cuban indoctrination system a ‘fine education’, Steven Mosher make statements based on no data, then minimal data from an article on The Hill, and then tries to defend his low data statements with his usual imperiousness “I call that NO TESTING”. Call it any thing you want… Most would call it bloviating alarmism based on little evidence, provided by someone who does not reside in the USA and references minimal data from dubious sources.

Why would anyone trust comments from someone who talks out of both sides of his mouth…. and then defends his foolishness with ‘It is what I SAY IT IS!’ ??? ‘Neat trick,’ indeed Steven!

Let’s get real, for a moment. Is the wuhan virus a problem? Yes. Will it cause problems in the USA, as it has in other countries? Yes. Will Steven Mosher’s flung-from-afar excretions change the eventual results one iota? No.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  J Mac
February 28, 2020 4:51 pm

California has 200 kits. Source? The state government
The US has tested less than 500 people. The source? the CDC

WHY? you ask

https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

dumbasses

J Mac
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 28, 2020 10:48 pm

Another flung from afar excretion from Steven Mosher. As expected….

Len Werner
February 27, 2020 6:26 pm

‘California has a strong health care system and public health infrastructure.’

“Keeping Californians safe and healthy is our number one priority,” said Dr. Sonia Angell, Director of the California Department of Public Health and State Public Health Officer.’

I just have to ask–what reason is there that one should assume that the California Department of Public Health is different in its ability to evaluate health problems than the California Department of Water Resources was capable of evaluating dam spill-way problems?–or that the California Department of Forestry was capable of evaluating forest floor wildfire-fuel buildup?

If you have to, dig up the photos of the Oroville Dam spillways–both normal and overflow, both of which had been declared by the California Department of Water Resources as being just fine until they weren’t, and a photo of Paradise Burned ‘the day after’, to see why the question might be asked.

Is it rational, looking at recent history, to assume that any California government department is fully capable and competent?

(Please–I’m not restricting this analysis to California!–Good Dog, we’ve got ‘Nero’ Trudeau up here.)

Pat
February 27, 2020 7:27 pm

There are a lot of conspiracy Theories floating here. Try this one. Trump is trying to get the Iranians to negotiate. So he releases a biogerm into China to cover an attack on the Iranian Government.

“Iranian Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar has become infected with the coronavirus, state news in Tehran reported Thursday, adding to the already mounting concern in the country as the virus continues to spread.
Ebtekhar, who advises President Hassan Rouhani on family and women’s matters, was placed under quarantine. Iran has struggled to contain the spread of the virus, which causes a disease called COVID-19, and also confirmed Thursday that 26 people in Iran have died from the virus. More than 400 are suspected of carrying it, and Iran has confirmed 245 cases.”

Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 27, 2020 7:51 pm

I don’t even think that you can come up with a bio-weapon conspiracy theory that would make sense to people in their wrong minds… 😉

Len Werner
Reply to  David Middleton
February 27, 2020 9:41 pm

You mean like–‘nobody in their right mind would deliberately fly airliners into buildings, right…?’

Reply to  Len Werner
February 28, 2020 3:45 am

Definitely people in their wrong minds.

J Mac
Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 27, 2020 10:08 pm

How about those in their left mind, Eric? };>)

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  J Mac
February 28, 2020 1:42 pm

Good point.

MarkW
Reply to  Pat
February 28, 2020 8:11 am

Some people will believe anything, so long as you paint the US as the bad guy.

niceguy
Reply to  Pat
February 28, 2020 3:37 pm

Trump is a germophe, so…

Phil
February 27, 2020 7:31 pm

In this study, we confirmed the higher sensitivity of the enveloped respiratory influenza A virus than of the nonenveloped enteric viruses to disinfection (56), and the complete removal of infectious influenza virus after a single wipe with a 1,000-ppm chlorine solution confirms a recent study that showed complete inactivation of human influenza A viruses by wipes containing1% bleach (sodium hypochlorite and sodium hydroxide) (27). The two-step procedure consisting of a single wipe with liquid soap followed by a disinfection step using 250-ppm chlorine solution is likely to be a good intervention strategy in cases of viral respiratory disease outbreaks since it reduced the infectivity of both respiratory viruses tested to well below the target level.

Residual Viral and Bacterial Contamination of Surfaces after Cleaning and Disinfection, Tuladhar, et. al. 2012

Phil
February 27, 2020 7:42 pm

When tested as directed, common household disinfectants or antiseptics, containing either 0.050% of triclosan, 0.12% of PCMX, 0.21% of sodium hypochlorite, 0.23% of pine oil, or 0.10% of a quaternary compound with 79% of ethanol, demonstrated a 3-log reduction or better against MHV without any virus recovered in a 30-second contact time.

The antiviral action of common household disinfectants and antiseptics againstmurine hepatitis virus, a potential surrogate for SARS coronavirus, Dellanno, et. al. 2009

Phil
February 27, 2020 7:59 pm

The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute.

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents, Kampf, et. al. 2020 in press

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Phil
February 28, 2020 1:41 pm

What about citric acid?

Phil
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
February 28, 2020 6:56 pm

Apply 3% citric acid solution on pre-cleaned porous and nonporous food and non-food contact surfaces. Contact time on porous surfaces is 30 minutes. Contact time on nonporous is 15 minutes.


FIFRA SECTION 18 EMERGENCY EXEMPTION LABEL (Rev. 2/11/19)
This label is for use only when no suitable EPA-registered products are
available for use against (Foot-and-mouth disease virus), (African swine fever virus), or (avian influenza virus)

Citric acid is classified by the EPA as a “low level disinfectant,” hence the very long contact times. Citric acid is usually used in a blend. Very strong concentrations (21% to 50%) are used to sanitize dialysis machines, but usually in combination with heat and partly because it helps to descale the machines.

Phil
February 27, 2020 8:09 pm

This protocol has been developed based on current practices for cleaning and disinfection of enveloped viruses.

Enveloped viruses are viruses that possess an envelope or outer coating that is composed of a lipid layer (fat-like substance that is water insoluble). The envelope is needed to aid in attachment of the virus to the host cell. Loss of the envelope results in loss of infectivity. The mode of transmission for enveloped viruses is characterized by the specific virus; however, the most common routes are via indirect or direct contact of infectious virus particles, contact with or inhalation of respiratory droplets. Some enveloped viruses may also be transmitted by airborne transmission.

Enveloped viruses are easily inactivated by routine surface cleaning and disinfection.

Coronaviruses are a type of enveloped virus.

Cleaning and Disinfection Protocol for Enveloped Viruses – Canada

Michael Carter
February 27, 2020 8:11 pm

It does no harm to sit down and think one’s way through a “what If” exercise. There are many

What if a government discourages travel, gatherings and closes schools. What is the reaction from the general public? The situation would be perceived to be serious. If I find myself in this situation I would seriously consider delaying my monthly bill payments to better secure the future. So would many other self employed, especially if they suffered a downturn in business or were on a labour-only contract e.g. taxi drivers

Around 40% of salary earners in developed economies are reliant on their salary to buy the next weeks/months supplies. They too would consider delay paying their monthlies. A government is not going to allow a energy supply company to cut off supply to 25 % of the population

This is just one example. Depending on the impact of the outbreak and the reaction of the public this event may turn our western economies on their heads

Forget the markets. This about microeconomics controlling macroeconomics. Who cares if the market crashes? It needs an adjustment anyway, as do house prices. Who cares if the rich lose some dosh?

I’m betting that a run on basic supplies has already started. Efficient the modern supply systems may be, but resilient – not. Likewise, the human race. We are more vulnerable now than at any time throughout our history

Just philosophys’n 🙂

M

Reply to  Michael Carter
February 27, 2020 8:33 pm

Michael,

The parallel you’ve touched on includes the Climate Scam.

I’m not worried about Corona Virus. Not for me. Not for Humanity. Viral epidemics come and go. Probably since not long after the Cambrian Explosion 520 mya.
But I do worry about the human emotional over-reaction to Corona Virus though.
Over-reaction is the real threat.

Same with Climate Change.
Climate Change is gradual, and not a worry to any rational thinking. Human and ecosystems are quite adept at adjusting to change.
But the over-reaction to climate change has morphed into a Climate Scam. A scam where unscrupulous political actors are seizing on it for their own power and wealth.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 28, 2020 4:05 am

The main threat of COVID-19 isn’t the disease itself (at least not here in the West) or panic, but rather its disruption of the global supply chain, precipitating a recession. Lots of domino effects possible.

Bindidon
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 28, 2020 7:22 am

Joel O’Bryan

“I’m not worried about Corona Virus. Not for me. Not for Humanity. Viral epidemics come and go.”

Wow!

You very probably will have a completely different discourse when you go on vacation somewhere, and will suddenly be quarantined, as has been done here in Europe a few times.

And that only a week after the virus reached our little corner.

See you in two weeks, Sir…

I have nothing to do with what you call ‘human emotional over-reaction’.
I’m interested in numbers and how they change.

J.-P. Dehottay

Fanakapan
Reply to  Michael Carter
February 27, 2020 8:42 pm

If the rest of the world goes China with the virus, and dealing with it, there will have to be a debt moratorium.

If you think the PTB have made a cock of things so far, just wait for when they have to stem world financial collapse.

Al Jolson, ‘You aint seen nothing yet”

February 27, 2020 8:46 pm

Here are some nearly facts:

Hubei Province has over 60,000,000 residents, nearly twice the population of California (our most populous state) and about equal to Great Britain or Italy.

Many if not most Hubei residents live in the cities of Wuhan (11 mil), Huangshi (2.5 mil), Yichang (4.1 mil), Ezhou (1.1 mil), Xiaogan (4.8 mil), Jingzhou (5.7 mil), Huanggang (6.1 mil), Xianning (2.4 mil), Xiantao (1.2 mil), and Qianjiang (0.9 mil), all clustered along or near the Yangtze River. It’s one big megaplex; Wuhan is not isolated.

In this industrial megaplex the average death rate (pre-Corona) was over 1,000 per day. The death rate has increased by a bare 50 per day, peaking two weeks ago and declining since. Allegedly ~100,000 people in Hubei Province have the crud, which amounts to two-tenths of one percent of the populace.

The Chinese Communist slave workers who make all your cool stuff are now returning to work. The “supply chain” is linking up again.

Even so, the Rest of the World is having a major freak out. Alarmists are popping up with dire reports that make CAGW paranoids look like pikers. Everybody is an epidemiologist with Greta-like expertise in virology.

Sorry Chicken Littles, but I don’t believe you. I think you don’t know jack and you refuse to look at the facts. If Hubei-ers aren’t dying en-mass like flies, then it is unlikely that your neighborhood or mine is doomed. Crow all you want. Call me a denier, threaten to Nuremberg me, but I’m not drinking your Koolaid. So there.

PS – My pre-retort to your moaning over my diatribe is, “So said another typical alarmist.”

Fanakapan
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
February 27, 2020 11:31 pm

Good Man Mike !

I wish you well in your stand against the waves of alarmism. Even if it does seem to take no account of the Madness of Crowds. 🙂

Bindidon
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
February 28, 2020 1:38 am

Mike Dubrasich

No I won’t call you a denier. I call you an ignorant.

You just need to have a look at how the disease extends (I even don’t call it an epidemy yet) :
– by increasing cases (500 per day in South Korea);
– by unbacktrackable cases (Italy, France, Spain).

As do most ignorants, you behave quite a bit arrogant too, Sah.

Let us wait for a couple of weeks. We will see if you then manage to show some more humility.

J.-P. Dehottay

Reply to  Bindidon
February 28, 2020 6:17 pm

Dear Mr. Dehottay,

What matters is not the number of cases but the number of DEATHS. And more specifically, the death rate as it changes over time within a population. Using California as an example:

CA population (est. 2019) = 40.1383 million.

CA death rate (est. 2017) = 6.1868 per thousand per year (not counting abortion), or 248,328 deaths per year, or 680 deaths per day.

Corona virus daily death rate, based on Chinese Commie figures from Hubei Province on the most deadly day (125 deaths on Feb 15) = 2.083 e-6.

So if CA follows suit and becomes infected with Covid-19, the most deadly day will be 84 deaths. That day will likely occur ~1 month after infection. Thereafter the death rate will drop to ~30 deaths/day after 2 weeks and decline steadily.

Worst case scenario: in one year as many as 9,000 Californians will die of Covid-19. That’s one chance in 4,460 or 0.00224%. But 248,328 will die of other causes (not counting abortion, est. 85,000/yr). This will increase the death rate in CA from 6.1868 per thousand per year to 6.4110.

Worst Case! I’ll bet you $10,000 right now that in one year you will NOT have died of Covid-19. If you do, I’ll pay your heirs. If you don’t, you pay me.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
March 2, 2020 7:22 am

“What matters is not the number of cases but the number of DEATHS. And more specifically, the death rate as it changes over time within a population. Using California as an example:”

categorically wrong.

forgetting the high rate of severe cases and overwhelming the medical system.
and economic damage

icisil
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
February 28, 2020 4:01 am

“Alarmists are popping up with dire reports that make CAGW paranoids look like pikers”

It’s astonishing to behold. Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah! The facts don’t matter group that attributes any warming to CO2. In this group any illness is caused by a bug. Facts about environmental toxins, lifestyle behaviors, nutrition, iatrogenisis, etc are simply ignored because they don’t fit the paradigm. Same disastrous results

MarkW
Reply to  icisil
February 28, 2020 8:22 am

This from the guy who goes apoplectic over barely measurable increases in radiation.

icisil
Reply to  MarkW
February 28, 2020 11:16 am

You need to be more honest and qualify your charge that my concern is over hot particle ingestion, rather than external radiation. I’m not at all concerned about slight increases in the latter.

Stevek
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
February 28, 2020 5:22 pm

I agree. For all we know 90 pct of residents were infected. 2000 out of millions is very low mortality rate.

goldminor
February 27, 2020 9:00 pm

Can’t help but notice how this news has been slowly played out. First was the community infection, the unknown from yesterday, and today Gavin Newsom declares that 8.400 people are being checked out for the virus. One would think that California would have kept their residents better informed versus dumping such a statement on the markets in mid day, today.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  goldminor
February 28, 2020 1:36 pm

That’s a feature, not a bug, for the governor of Calizuela, Mr. Noisome.

sid
February 27, 2020 9:40 pm

This person was a resident of of Solana County. Solana County is where Travis AFB is located. Travis is where the first evqcuees from Wuhan were brought. Doubt that is a coincidence…

Alex
February 27, 2020 10:34 pm

There is already a first dead American from the Virus.
In Honduras though.
The virus is not to contain.

ren
February 27, 2020 11:27 pm

I believe that garlic can protect against complications, although it is not an antiviral drug. If your doctor prescribes an antibiotic, use it with your probiotic. Antiviral activity is demonstrated by organic zinc available in pharmacies. Antiviral drugs can help if used at the first symptoms.
However, it should be remembered that this will not protect us against infection in the event of contact with the virus.

Roger Knights
Reply to  ren
February 28, 2020 4:11 am

“I believe that garlic can protect against complications”

Wear it on a string around your neck, as they did in the Middle Ages, and it’ll keep the infected (and others) at a distance! (From the odor, supposedly.)

ren
Reply to  ren
February 28, 2020 5:31 am
Reply to  ren
February 28, 2020 6:59 am

Garlic can protect against bland food.

MarkW
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 28, 2020 8:24 am

It can also protect you from people with overly sensitive noses.

February 28, 2020 12:47 am

In a week’s prior corona-virus post I recommended Osha root, based on very long personal experience, for a home virus intervention. Sorry, but it’s expensive & maybe only bought on-line from USA sellers.

Osha root (L. porteri) in peripheral blood lymphocytes increases interferon gamma (& interleukin-2, among other things).

See Kang, et al. (2018) :” Direct anti-viral mechanism of interferon-gamma”; available on-line as free full text.

Source cited about Osha root interferon gamma finding is (2016) “Investigation of the cytotoxicity, antioxidative and immune-modulatory effects of Lingusticum porteri ….”

There is also published research on interleukin-2 as regards immunological details. It was co-administered for HIV virus, so anyone interested can get more specifics about it’s potential & limitations (at least regarding HIV) for viruses.

February 28, 2020 1:30 am

wrt to 5G, the people who sell bandwidth to phone companies use internationally agreed bands:

“Sub 1GHz, dubbed the ‘coverage layer’, will provide wide area and deep indoor coverage, and in Europe encompasses the 700MHz band. These frequencies will combine with the next band to enable operators to roll out 5G quickly and more cost-effectively.
1GHz-6GHz, aka the ‘coverage and capacity layer’, relies on C-band spectrum around the 3.5GHz mark to deliver the best compromise between capacity and coverage. European regulators have identified the 3.4-3.8GHz band and plan to harmonise it to make it suitable for 5G. It will be the main frequency band for the launch of 5G.
Above 6GHz, aka the ‘super data layer’, uses higher frequency millimetre-wave (mmWave) spectrum to deliver high data rates for specific use cases. Europe has agreed to harmonise frequencies in the 24.25-27.5GHz band, although it’s commonly referred to the 26GHz band. It will be the key enabler of future 5G services and be critical to 5G networks”

60 GHz is a world away technically speaking from lower frequencies, very difficult to use and near impossible in hand portable equipment.

Vuk
February 28, 2020 2:55 am

Global economy is cyclical, as it happens the cycle is currently at or near its peak, and even minor economic event may turn cycle downward, even recession, the corona virus just has arrived at the such critical time.
We are entering the stage where the official figures in large industrial countries with largest number of infections, China, S. Korea, Italy and Japan can not be taken for granted. China and S. Korea are concerned with the industrial production downturn while Italy’s concern is tourism and for Japan it is the Olympic games.
For time being for the USA, Germany, UK and France the severe fall in the stock markets values and possible effects on the investments and domestic fall in consumption directly related to the perceived individual wealth downgrading may have more effect.
Suddenly this decade (2020’s) has taken direction of travel that no one expected at its start barely two months ago.

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
February 28, 2020 3:10 am

To avoid unnecessary global recession:
– the USA and Chine need to abandon trade sanctions skirmishes
– the UK and EU need to sign ‘pronto’ free trade and services agreement

J Mac
Reply to  Vuk
February 28, 2020 9:36 am

The ChiComs need to ‘abandon’ intellectual property theft, if they want the rest of the free world to remove punitive economic measures against them.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Vuk
February 28, 2020 4:13 am

“even minor economic event may turn cycle downward, even recession”

If you’re up on stilts, a little stumble can trigger a big tumble.

Vuk
February 28, 2020 3:11 am

To avoid unnecessary global recession:
– the USA and Chine need to abandon trade sanctions skirmishes
– the UK and EU need to sign ‘pronto’ free trade and services agreement

Roger Knights
February 28, 2020 4:50 am

In China, 200,000,000 children are being taught over the Internet, because of quarntines. If those happen here, perhaps we could abandon “schools” entirely, especially colleges. Écrasez l’infâme!

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Roger Knights
February 28, 2020 1:29 pm

Amen!!

February 28, 2020 6:40 am

It has been proven that sound waves kill pathogens.
https://youtu.be/1w0_kazbb_U

Royal Rife anyone?

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  John Williams
February 28, 2020 1:28 pm

Altogether now! ♪WOOOOOOOO! ♪WOOOOOOOO!

DR
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
February 28, 2020 7:44 pm

Think it is nonsense?
http://www.histosonics.com/

Alex
February 28, 2020 9:32 am

For those who claimed “we know a lot about the virus”.
Here comes a new study.

Corona is 100 to 1000 times more infectious than SARS and uses the same mechanismus as HIV and Ebola to infiltrate the cell.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8055401/Coronavirus-1-000-times-infectious-SARS-scientists-warn.html

icisil
Reply to  Alex
February 28, 2020 11:28 am

Oh dear God, not this stuff again. An accomplished virologist once said that there is no such thing as a “slow virus”, but there are slow virologists.

Paul Penrose
February 28, 2020 10:05 am

Don’t bother stocking up on or wearing those cheap masks you see all the time on TV. A virus will go right though them (although it may help stop you from touching your nose an/or mouth which could limit infection). Besides, most infections are probably from contact. Washing your hands more often, especially after you have been out in public, is much more useful.