Reposted from the Fabius Maximus website
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 22 February 2020
Summary: I talk to people who worry about the coronavirus epidemic and so read much about it – but know almost nothing, with facts lost amidst the rumors and misinformation. Here is a clear picture of what is known, so far. We learn more each day.
Important: the WHO has not yet declared COVID-19 (aka coronavirus) to be a pandemic – where the epidemic spreads rapidly across multiple regions simultaneously. The label “pandemic” describes a disease’s extent and speed of spread, not its severity. See the WHO website for details (here and here). The COVID-19 epidemic now might be breaking containment to become a pandemic. This is where the preparation during the past two months will prove its worth – or not.
The current status
From the WHO Situation Report of February 22.
So far there are 29 nations affected (5 new nations since February 3, two today). There are 1402 confirmed cases outside China (202 new), with 11 deaths (202 new). That is 768 cases plus the 634 guaranteed or tested from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Reminder: the world’s population outside China is six and one-half billion.
- South Korea is experiencing the most rapid spread of the disease outside of China – so far with small numbers afflicted and an immensely strong response by its government and people. They have 346 confirmed cases: 1 new case reported on Feb. 18, 20 on Feb. 19, 53 on Feb. 20, and 100 on Feb. 21, and 104 on Feb. 22.
- The other nation experiencing a rapid spread is Italy, so far with tiny numbers. Using Italy’s numbers, there 54 confirmed cases (vs. 3 on WHO’s Feb. 21 report). Again, the government and people are responding strongly and proactively to contain the outbreak (details here).
- Iran reported its first two cases on Feb 20. There are now 18 cases and 4 deaths, which implies that there are many more than 18 people infected.
People take for granted this accurate, timely, and detailed data (esp. the “government can’t do anything” and “the UN is evil” folks). It did not exist for epidemics until recently. This information is collected according to the International Health Regulations (2005). All Member States are required to immediately report any new confirmed case of COVID-19 and, within 48 hours, provide information related to clinical, epidemiological, and travel history using the WHO standardized case reporting form.
Cases in the US
As of Feb 21, the CDC reports that 414 people have been tests and 14 cases confirmed – with no tests pending results.
As of February 15, the CDC estimates that so far this season (since September 9) there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations, and 16,000 deaths from flu. See their summary page and detail page for current information. But remember America’s new motto: “What, me worry?”
An overview of the epidemic
Excerpt from a speech by Tedros Adhanom, the Director-General of WHO, on February 21. Full text here.
“It’s hard to believe that only 52 days ago {January 1}, WHO’s country office in China was notified of a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan city. In just seven weeks, this outbreak has captured the world’s attention, and rightly so, because it has the potential to cause severe political, social and economic upheaval.
“As you know, WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern within a month {on January 30} after the first reported cases, as a result of the signs of human-to-human transmission we saw outside China. And because of the major concerns we had that this virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems such as in our continent. China has now reported 75,569 cases to WHO, including 2239 deaths.
“The data from China continue to show a decline in new cases. This is welcome news, but it must be interpreted very cautiously. It’s far too early to make predictions about this outbreak.
“Outside China, there are now 1200 cases in 26 countries, with 8 deaths. As you know, there is one confirmed case on the African continent, in Egypt {reported Feb. 15}. Several African countries have tested suspected cases of COVID-19, but fortunately they have been found negative.
“Although the total number of cases outside China remains relatively small, we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case. We are especially concerned about the increase in cases in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where there are now 18 cases and four deaths in just the past two days.
“With every day that passes, we know a little bit more about this virus, and the disease it causes. We know that more than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover. But the other 20% of patients have severe or critical diseases, ranging from shortness of breath to septic shock and multi-organ failure. These patients require intensive care, using equipment such as respiratory support machines that are, as you know, in short supply in many African countries. And that’s a cause for concern. In 2% of reported cases, the virus is fatal, and the risk of death increases the older a patient is, and with underlying health conditions. We see relatively few cases among children. More research, of course, is needed to understand why.
“Our biggest concern continues to be the potential for COVID-19 to spread in countries with weaker health systems. …we’re working hard to prepare countries in Africa for the potential arrival of the virus. …We’ve also published a Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, with a call for US$675 million to support countries, especially those which are most vulnerable.
“WHO has identified 13 priority countries in Africa because of their direct links to China or their high volume of travel with China. …an increasing number of African countries are now able to test for COVID-19 with laboratory test kits supplied by WHO, compared with only one just a couple of weeks ago. Some countries in Africa, including DRC, are also leveraging the capacity they have built up to test for Ebola, to test for COVID-19. This is a great example of how investing in health systems can pay dividends for health security.
“We have also shipped more than 30,000 sets of personal protective equipment to several countries in Africa, and we’re ready to ship almost 60,000 more sets to 19 countries in the coming weeks. We’re working with manufacturers of personal protective equipment to address the severe disruption in the market for masks, gloves, gowns and other PPE, to ensure we can protect health workers.
“During the past month about 11,000 African health workers have been trained using WHO’s online courses on COVID-19, which are available free of charge in English, French and other languages at OpenWHO. We’re also providing advice to countries on how to do screening, testing, contact tracing and treatment.
“Last week we brought the international research community together to identify research priorities, especially in the areas of diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. …
“The increasing signs of transmission outside China show that the window of opportunity we have for containing this virus is narrowing. We are calling on all countries to invest urgently in preparedness. We have to take advantage of the window of opportunity we have, to attack the virus outbreak with a sense of urgency.”
The numbers for COVID-19
From WHO’s February 19 Situation Report. Footnotes omitted. See the report for footnotes with links to research. Links and red emphasis added.
“WHO has been working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases who die), infection fatality ratio (IFR, the portion of all of those infected who die), and the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case).
“To calculate these parameters, statisticians and modelers use case-based data from COVID-19 surveillance activities, and data captured from early investigations, such as those studies which evaluate transmission within clusters of cases in households or other closed settings. Preliminary estimates of median incubation period are 5-6 days (ranging from 0-14 days) and estimates for the serial interval range from 4.4 to 7.5 days. …
“The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44,415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February. This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.
“Outside of China, CFR estimates among confirmed cases reported is lower than reported from within China. However, it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether there are real differences in the CFR inside and outside of China, as final outcome data (that is, who will recover and who will die) for the majority of cases reported from outside China are not yet known.”
That last paragraph is important and often ignored. The fatality rate in developed nations is as yet unknown, but probably far lower than China’s due to availablilty of more advanced tools for treatment – especially for respiratory problems.
About transmission of covid-19
From WHO’s February 21 Situation Report.
“Currently, there are investigations conducted to evaluate the viability and survival time of SARS-CoV-2. In general, coronaviruses are very stable in a frozen state according to studies of other coronaviruses, which have shown survival for up to two years at -20°C. Studies conducted on SARS-CoV ad MERS-CoV indicate that these viruses can persist on different surfaces for up to a few days depending on a combination of parameters such as temperature, humidity, and light. For example, at refrigeration temperature (4°C), MERS-CoV can remain viable for up to 72 hours.
“Current evidence on other coronavirus strains shows that while coronaviruses appear to be stable at low and freezing temperatures for a certain period, food hygiene and good food safety practices can prevent their transmission through food. Specifically, coronaviruses are thermolabile, which means that they are susceptible to normal cooking temperatures (70°C). Therefore, as a general rule, the consumption of raw or undercooked animal products should be avoided. Raw meat, raw milk or raw animal organs should be handled with care to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods.
“SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are susceptible to the most common cleaning and disinfection protocols and there is no indication so far that SARS-Cov-2 behaves differently.”
Conclusions
The combination of good global organization by the national public health organizations (coordinated by WHO) and high technology have contained the epidemic for 52 days. This time allowed implementation of screening and quarantine mechanisms, creation of diagnostic tools (based on decoding its genome), development of protocols for treatment, dissemination of equipment, and starting research about the diseases’ nature and cure.
The next few weeks might show what difference all that has made. Future historians might see COVID-19 as a new age of public health, with the first effective response to a pandemic. Time will tell.
It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.
- There is their daily situation report, with detailed numbers.
- The Director-General of WHO gives frequent briefings, which are quite insightful.
- Their daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
Posts about the coronavirus pandemic.
- The 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.
- Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – How fake news drives out good news.
- Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus – Update about the epidemic, and why so few know the good news.
- Lessons from the coronavirus about climate change.
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also, see these posts about epidemics…
- See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
- Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
Films about scientists responding to global threats
In these films, we see scientists behaving according to their and our highest ideals.
When Worlds Collide
Contagion (2011).
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Bear with me …
What happened?
1) Chinese scientists from the Wuhan lab reads about the theory that the ’Black Death’ in mid 14. century could have been a virus originated from Wuhan.
2) They take a field trip to collect mammals – and suddenly find themselves a killer virus
3) First thought let’s make a vaccine.
4) Second thought let’s test this vaccine.
5) Third thought – damn this thing is still infectious – and very much so. Should we tell anyone?
History:
In the mid 14. Century the real virus spread via the Silk route, Afghanistan, Persia, Syria to Italy and from here to the rest of Europe and North Africa. But not in tropical countries like India.
A scientist from that time could differentiate the disease from what is now know as the bacterial bubonic plague.
”It is said that the plague takes three forms. In the first people suffer an infection of the lungs, which leads to breathing difficulties. Whoever has this corruption or contamination to any extent cannot escape but will die within two days. Another form … in which boils erupt under the armpits, … a third form in which people of both sexes are attacked in the groin.”
… and later studies has also confirmed that in London in 1350 the disease got mere severe the older the patients was – not as with the plaque where children was hid hard. But the rate of death 40-50% – not like todays virus/vaccine 4-5%
I think this explanation covers both facts and the most common speculations.
But I could be wrong ☺
Any new virus associated with the airway epithelium can cause a healthy person a cytokine storm and acute respiratory failure.
It is a reaction analogous to acute allergy.
It is certain that this virus cannot be eradicated and will accompany us, just like flu virus mutations.
It will take about two years to create an effective vaccine. There is now no cure for this particular virus.
No guarantee for that.
So far no corona viruses have an effective vaccine.
Every virus has a cure – a healthy immune system.
CRS occurs when large numbers of white blood cells, including B cells, T cells, and natural killer cells, macrophages, dendritic cells, and monocytes are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells.
This can occur when the immune system is fighting pathogens, as cytokines signal immune cells such as T-cells and macrophages to travel to the site of infection. In addition, cytokines activate those cells, stimulating them to produce more cytokines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
Sounds like a vitamin D deficiency. Vit D reduces the production of proinflammatory cytokines and moderates immune response.
Uh…that would be nice if true.
There would be no chronic infectious diseases.
How did that work out for those folks who contracted HIV?
Or HSV Type 1 or 2… Any type of Herpes for that matter. Think Chicken Pox -> Shingles.
I’m going to make an observation that will give me the appearance of monster to some, but I invite everyone to look at the 2nd order effects (I hope I’m using that term properly) instead of the Covid-19 virus and its immediate effect on health. Using HIV as an analysis, the infection itself is not the direct killer, it is the secondary infections that exploit the weakened immune system.
In this case, infections and deaths from those deaths will have far less impact than the financial fallout from the quarantine. From a purely statistical standpoint, a million deaths in a population of over 7 billion is essentially unnoticeable. On an individual scale, when it is your friend, or your relative, the impact is huge. But globally, it is insignificant.
Economies run the gamut from the individual, to the family, the community, the nation and finally to the whole world. At every level, the economy works because there is a cyclical flow between production and consumption. You can’t consume (food, gasoline, clothes, etc.) unless there is production (fast food worker, miner, factory production, transportation, etc.). And production eventually stumbles and stops when the consumption stumbles and stops. China is starting to see it now with the internal restrictions on movement, and external quarantines as well. Businesses borrow money from the banks with the expectation those loans will finance construction, production, etc. The sales finance the repayment of the loans and the cycle continues. When people don’t buy anything but the necessities, when people don’t go to work because the factories are closed, essential assemblies aren’t manufactured, so they aren’t shipped to the factories that need those parts to complete their product, which they can’t ship and sell anyway, the economic engine is grinding to a halt. I read an article this morning about car dealerships (among many other businesses) that can’t pay their loans back to the bank. They may be large enough to escape foreclosure, but the smaller businesses will be out of business. A port in Alabama hasn’t been affected yet, the Chinese ships take about a month to complete the journey, but pretty soon those ships will stop. And the goods that would ordinarily ship to China, may not go. So then the port doesn’t have the business they need, workers are laid off, they can’t make their payments, buy the stuff they normally did, etc. And the ripple spreads outward.
Corvid-19 doesn’t look to have the health impact that the flu does every year. But the economic effects of trying to contain it look very likely to precipitate the severe recession or depression.
A lot of people here are not doing a good job of looking at the bright side.
This is the best opportunity in a long time for everyone to compose a list of people you wish were dead, and have a decent chance of getting your wish on some of them.
After the Black Death, the people left were all far more wealthy in general, and it is regarded as the beginning of the end of the surf class.
Wealthy people had to give money to peasants if they wanted anything done.
Right now, old folks have a low of the money.
So in addition to that wish list, give a nice phone call to anyone who might leave you an inheritance and make sure you are not on their sh!t list.
Dont’t worry…be happy.
There’s always a bright side. You like Monty Python don’t you?
What about false positives in the test ? Does the test have high false positives ? If they test thousands and thousands of people even a small chance of false positive will skew numbers quite a bit. What if they test same person again that gets a false positive, is that person more likely to show another false positive ?
It will be impossible to create ANY “effective” vaccine for this virus because an RNA coronavirus constantly mutates. What CAN be done is create a vaccine that is close enough to give at least partial immunity and potentially reduce the severity of the illness it produces. What is known without any question is:
1: This virus has an incubation period of up to 24 days therefore 14 day quarantines are too short. They should be extended by at least a week to 21 days.
2: Majority of cases of this illness are relatively mild. People do not become ill enough to seek medical attention. What has been happening is that the virus circulates until someone dies and then many additional cases are discovered. It can also take weeks for the illness to develop to the point of pneumonia.
3: There is really no way for an individual to distinguish this from seasonal flu, particularly if they have mild symptoms. It might appear to be a regular bronchitis, severe cold, or mild flu.
4: Majority of deaths, and mean the vast majority (though not all) have been people over the age of 60. Most of them have had some other underlying condition but a 60+ smoker with COPD should be worried about this as should anyone with cystic fibrosis, pulmonary fibrosis, chronic asthma, and other chronic pulmonary problems. The average normal healthy adult will most likely survive this just fine.
5: The virus spreads most readily in areas with cool, dry air. It does not do as well in warm humid areas. It will become less of a problem as temperatures warm in the northern hemisphere.
It’s pretty humid in Wuhan. It may be cool this time of year there, and perhaps indoor humidity is lower. It’s going to rain there often in the next week or so. Would there be an expectation that weather in Wuhan will be less favorable to spread of the virus?
It is important to note that all these cases in Italy and Iran and South Korea didn’t just suddenly appear. The virus has likely been circulating already for weeks. Finally someone dies. They test, find the virus, then they check people associated with the deceased and discover more cases and working out from those people, discover a bunch more. So while it LOOKS from the reported number that a lot of people are suddenly becoming ill, that isn’t the case. They have been circulating the virus for weeks in most cases and were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms consistent with a regular seasonal cold. Lombardy is worrisome because it is a major European ski resort area. Lake Como is sort of like Europe’s Lake Tahoe or Lake Placid. There have been a lot of tourists from a lot of countries of Europe who have been through the Lombardy region of Italy in the past several weeks so it would not be a stretch to assume that the virus is now circulating more generally in Europe.
Absolutely
For all the people who frequent this site – including, natuarally, the moderators- I strongly recommend watching the Dr. John Campbell videos that he puts up (one or more per day).
Just as this website – and this article – can contain numerous supplementary bits of information (credible or not, agreeable to you or not), the comments accompanying the Campbell videos are exceptionally intriguing, particulary the data posted from a claimed, informed Iranian.
I’ll not repeat some of the claims here as they are completely ‘unverified’ and coming from anonymous sources.
However, the info – if accurate- is nothing short of alarming.
For the folks who continue to rely upon preposterous sources such as the WHO (after today’s presser, they should return to the Clown Kar), do not be surprised when, say, March 1st presents you with an entirely new world view.
This thing is only scary when you see an increase in new cases from one day to the next (or if you live near an outbreak). This is happening in South Korea and Italy, but just the opposite in China (if their numbers are to be believed):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For some perspective, imagine if 10,000 new cases were reported each day, but that rate remained steady? Horrible, yes, but it would take 274 years to infect a billion people. Over 2000 years to infect 7.8 billion people (current global population).
These are not really “new” cases. These are cases that have been there for weeks that they are only now discovering after someone dies and they start testing for it. It is likely that dozens have come down with it, had mild symptoms and already recovered from it before they even start testing for it.
Agreed.
At some point there needs to be a study of how many cases go unreported for every case that is reported. At this point it’s just speculation.
Snape/crosspatch
Excellent observations about a very critical point … number of ‘known’ cases and their complete, precise status (how long infected, source of infection, etc).
This is why early reports out of Italy may provide important info, specifically, there are claims thst the – relatively – high Italian cases stem from vigorous testing.
This was enabled by government’s efforts combined with sufficient, effective testing material.
However, online comments suggest that these kits are being rapidly depleted and, as a consequence, several cases – generally more moderate – are simply not tested.
Not tested seems to equate with Not Infected, amongst our more naive peers.
As test kits supposedly just arrived in several African countries last week, we may yet see an ongoing – presently unrecognized/unacknowledged – scourge erupt into the wider consciousness in the near future.
Interesting and lively comment section on this article. Its a good sign that WUWT readers are using their heads to ponder what could become a problem.
Bottom line, if nCoV comes to a place near you, it’ll be a crapshoot. 🙂
The Updates at the bottom of this article provide an interesting read
http://themillenniumreport.com/2020/01/wuhan-coronavirus-pandemic-bioengineered-whos-behind-it-why-now-and-why-china/
Spamdemic.
The penny is dropping that this is not containable/quarantiable and will likely overwhelm our medical systems as it has in China-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/youre-likely-to-get-the-coronavirus/ar-BB10l5Bt
Without a swift clear plan to deal with it that everyone understands such a pandemic could easily lead to panic and social breakdown. Our young people will have to continue to go to work and be productive while the active retirees volunteer to have their backs and necessarily die in numbers to shield them and ensure the future generations get all the scarce resources and care. If you have any other alternative plan this grandparent is all ears but I’m not about to get in the masks and baked beans as it’s counterproductive.
When you think about what’s required it clearly needs all retired medical expertise skills on call and some crash courses from them attending to drips and medication but special hospitals need a lot more than that. Orderlies cooks cleaners maintenance trades etc right down to bulldozer/excavator drivers to note and bury the aged dead in mass graves as there’ll only be time to mark and pay due respect to them when the vaccines have finally ended it. This is a civilian war and our young people and their dependants need YOU to answer the call OK Boomer?
OK, Doomer. It’s early and the penny is still being flipped.
I guess reports out of China will show Chinese government and hospitals is much better than at any other country.
Death Rate in China
19.01%
18.70%
18.43%
17.36%
15.68%
14.76%
13.45%
12.87%
12.05%
11.46%
10.79%
10.12%
9.57%
9.47%
8.92%
Compare to rate outside :
2.86%
3.14%
3.85%
4.85%
5.98%
7.43%
9.51%
13.19%
Calculated as : Rate = 100 * deaths / (deaths + recovered)
Yesterday the numbers were almost identical. Should wait until it stabilizes in Asia and Europe. Then we know better what we have ahead.
Jerome Ravetz should be on this.
We face a situation that he would call “post normal science”
1. facts are uncertain
2. Stakes are high.
3. Values are in conflict
4. stakes are high
5. decisions are urgent
In the spirit of looking on the bright side. The virus may end up doing what Liberals have been pining for but unable to do: driving the cost of medical care down.
Big up-front cost, but whacking the bulk of the end-of-life consumers will eventually pay dividends. That I’m barely but in that group kind of sucks but doing the greatest good for the most is what I intend to keep in mind.
Hi Steven
I hope you are on way out. Get checked as soon as you lend to the USA.
land
The penny is dropping that this virus is not containable or quarantinable economically-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/youre-likely-to-get-the-coronavirus/ar-BB10l5Bt
In that sense we have to prepare quickly for a pandemic spike that overruns our medical facilities capacity to cope even though the death rate is relatively low. In that sense I’d argue we have to think quickly about the tradeoffs that will require to see productive young parents and their dependants get priority over those of us who are aged retirees on a spectrum of vulnerability of course. If I’m approaching 70 with a massive queue for treatment then forget me and concentrate on my children and grandchildren. Most of my peers would feel the same and we’ve got your backs young’uns. However don’t leave that planning and social understanding until a crisis is fully evident with panic and social disorder. Let’s get that out in the open and the rules sorted now as I fear there’ll be a tendency for our authorities to downplay a pandemic and not to want to frighten the horses worried about stampedes.
Having said that and planning for the worst we should all be optimistic that any run of such virus will see it ultimately knocked on the head fairly quickly before massive social and economic disruption-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/drugmaker-ships-first-experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-tests/ar-BB10loFe
Each new virus is dangerous because it can cause a cytokine storm. A cytokine storm (own lymphocytes) destroy lung cells and in a short time respiratory failure occurs (holes in the lungs).
Coronavirus species-jumped bat-pangolin-human.
Sweet revenge for Pangolins!
Pangolins are close to being driven to extinction in their native Africa due to Asians eating them and using their scales for folk magic.
They are the most hunted wild animal in Africa.
https://images.app.goo.gl/AJvXsMNGG9pKVtJz9
Stick it to the man, Pangolins!
In total, 80,148 cases of infection were reported worldwide. 2,699 deaths from coronavirus were also confirmed. 27,683 people were cured of the infection.
How is it possible that China managed to test thousands of suspected infected people, before the commercial test was available? How many labs can do that and what kind of precautions were used?
Are the lab workers tested themselves?
The Oz Govt pulls the trigger on the obvious now-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/virus-emergency-blueprint-australia-pulls-trigger-on-pandemic-plan/ar-BB10mXpV
but with a public and private health system we get ambulance ramping at public hospitals already with flu season and there are variable waiting lists for certain services-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/canberra-patients-health-at-risk-as-some-wait-more-than-four-years-to-see-a-specialist-doctor/ar-BB10nLOP
That’s where I’m coming from with the call to arms for all the retired oldies as the economic productivity must go on but our young have to know they’ll get priority care to do that or there’ll be mayhem with serious infection rates.
The remark about wealthy early self-evacuees from Wuhan makes me think of India. Maybe it’s lucky the Indians and Chinese haven’t been getting along that well lately, and maybe that explains why the virus hasn’t made an impact there. But I wonder…
I certainly wouldn’t want to be in India with a COVID-19 epidemic. Even being in China might be preferable.
In any case, lovable as Italy might be to the Chinese, I think the stats show they love Paris much more. So where did all those 5 million go? Have they all gone to their ancestral homes and are quitely sitting out the epidemic there. And the other mystery – how are quarantined or exiled Chines e in or from Wuhan making do without work etc.?