Guest post by Rud Istvan,
ctm posted my longish scientific commentary written last Sunday on Monday. The situation is still rapidly evolving. Much more is now known than last Sunday. This updates my previous commentary and the general knowledge about Wuhan, adding new factual information plus additional research. For those interested, the WSJ online (paywalled, but I am a subscriber) has added a new coronavirus section tracking Wuhan daily news because of the importance to China and global supply chains. I rely on it here using today’s WSJ noon update.
A special h/t to previous commenters Robert of Texas and Nicolas McGinley, who added much to my previous post with many erudite comments.
Origins and precedents
Wuhan is the third known transmission of a respiratory tract coronavirus infection from bats via an intermediary mammal to humans:
SARS 2003: The following information is derived from a special WHO report. 916 deaths from 8422 total infections, mortality 10.9%. Not transmissible prior to onset of symptoms (cough, fever); main transmission days 4 and 5 after symptom onset. Mode of transmission mainly contact, with an R0 about 3. Bat corona via live civet intermediate to humans in a Chinese wet market.
MERS 2012: 779 deaths from 2229 total infections, mortality 35.5%. Not transmissible prior to symptom onset. Bat corona via live camel intermediate to humans in a Saudi Arabian camel market.
Wuhan 2020: to today at noon (2/13/20), about 1300 deaths in about 59000 diagnosed cases, with about 5000 full recoveries. The implications are discussed below. Bat corona via live pangolin to humans in Wuhan’s Huanan wet market (since permanently closed) in December 2019.
Wuhan transmission and clinical progression
Many more case reports are now giving a clear clinical picture.
Transmission route is either contact or inhalation (of real concern, because more flu like than cold like—even with annual flu shots influenza R0 remains about 2 because of flu vaccine issues covered in the previous post). Based on SARS and influenza, this means the likely Wuhan R0 is 3ish, so very contagious. The significant inhalation route is now shown by both the Diamond Princess cruise ship experiment (more below) and by the fact that ordinary surgical masks proved ineffective in the Wuhan hospital setting (JAMA, previous post).
Incubation period is 7-10 days from initial infection. The good news is that the 14-day quarantine adopted pretty much universally last week should therefore be effective (with a margin of safety) at Wuhan containment. But in most of Southeast Asia outside China, Japan, and Singapore, or in Africa should Wuhan spread there, 14-day quarantine will be difficult or impossible to maintain so the possibility of a pandemic remains.
The bad news is that Wuhan IS transmissible during some later part of the symptomless incubation period. The definitive clinical proof (there was comment debate about the reliability of previous post evidence from Japan and Germany) is an age 50’s UK male who attended an about 100 person sales conference in Singapore 1/20-1/22 2020. A single individual from Wuhan also attended this conference and was–per Singapore Wuhan containment policies– symptomless on arrival (no fever, no cough). That either symptomless or very early symptomatic individual transmitted Wuhan to the UK citizen in Singapore. The UK individual then flew to France for a 4-day family ski vacation 1/24-1/28 at Le Contamines-Montjoie. During the 4-day vacation the UK male remained symptomless (entire incubation time Singapore plus France at most 8 days) but transmitted Wuhan to 11 other individuals, 5 later diagnosed in UK (family and friends), 5 later diagnosed in France, and 1 later diagnosed in Spain. Clearly this case is NOT family close proximity contact transmission. This case may be a “super spreader” outlier, BUT it means a symptomless R0 as high as 11 cannot be ruled out, with a symptomless transmission period of several days. By comparison, the R0 for measles (absent vaccination) is 12-18, so a horrific Wuhan symptomless R0 of 11 is within the realm of actual possibility.
This is VERY bad news, as the formal CDC guidance on URI’s is that transmission risk is highest with peak symptoms (equating to peak virion shedding)–as was the case with SARS. Not so with Wuhan, reinforcing the public health necessity of strict 14-day quarantine.
Disease progression is standard common cold symptoms for 7-10 days with one exception–used since yesterday for clinical diagnosis in Hubei Province, as both the Chinese and the experimental CDC US test kits are showing significant problems with a high rate of false negatives. Common colds from over 120 distinct serotypes from all three viral families (RNA naked Rhino, RNA enveloped Corona, and DNA enveloped Adeno) all evidence the same three symptoms: runny nose, sore throat, and cough. Influenza adds two: fever and muscle ache. Wuhan clinically shows four: runny nose, sore throat, cough, AND fever—but NOT muscle ache. As of today, Hubei switched to clinical diagnosis and today’s ‘new’ diagnosed Wuhan cases were 14840. Yesterday, using only test kits, it was 1638. This is not a leap in cases; it is a leap in diagnostics.
Unfortunately, this new fact means Wuhan has previously (as suspected but now proven) been severely under diagnosed and reported. And that unfortunately means the 1300 attributed deaths were also severely underreported. More on presently inferable mortality comes in a following section.
Wuhan then makes a now well-established clinical bifurcation. In 75-80% of cases, by symptom day 10 there is a normal ‘corona cold’ recovery lasting a few days. (In my own case last week, 3 recovery days in total, days 9-12 from symptom onset.)
In 20-25% of cases, by symptom day 10 Wuhan progresses to lower respiratory tract pneumonia, where death may occur with or without ICU intervention. The percentage of these deep pneumonias that are viral as opposed to a secondary bacteria infection is not known, but the NEJM clinical case report from Washington State discussed in the following paragraph strongly suggests viral (like SARS), not secondary bacterial treatable with antibiotics.
The new NEJM case report is so important it is summarized here because it leads to a hopeful culminating section below. The Seattle Wuhan case evidenced x-ray diagnosed lower respiratory tract pneumonia from days 9-11 from symptom onset. Supplemental oxygen was started day 9. IV antibiotics were started day 10 to no effect, so discontinued after one day. Importantly (more below), experimental antiviral remdesivir started day 11 by IV under a compassionate use exception, and the deep viral pneumonia fully resolved (per x-ray diagnosis) within 24 hours!
Diamond Princess ‘lab’ experiment
On Sunday, reported cases were 69 out of about 3700 total ship passengers and crew. Japan was removing people from the ship to hospital isolation as soon as symptoms (fever) showed, so the cruise ship became a somewhat artificial (close quarters) symptomless R0 experiment.
As of today, the ship’s website reports that 218 passengers have been positively diagnosed from 713 tested, all removed to hospital isolation. About 3500 passengers and crew remain on board as the ‘experiment’ continues. This suggests symptomless Wuhan R0 is greater than 2 (37 new cases per day for four days among a symptomless about 3500- 3600) and could be, like SARS, 3ish. Except SARS transmission was after symptom onset; this is before.
Per its website, ship offered today to begin removing symptomless passengers to shore quarantine at their expense, or to remain quarantined on the ship at Princess expense. In either event, full cruise refunds have been made.
Inferable Mortality
The news here is not good. We have mostly very poor data; both Hubei incidence and mortality were now provably severely under reported. But we do have one piece of usable comparable information. 1300 mortalities and 5000 recoveries amongst those who tested positive from the false negative test kits used until yesterday (the majority of cases have not yet resolved one way of the other). In the end, when the disease has run its course, there are only two outcomes: recovery or death. On the test kit basis, the mortality could be as high as 26%. That is horrible but not impossible since MERS was almost 36%.
My own ‘hunch’ is that Wuhan in the end will come in about 10% mortality; the mechanism is lower respiratory tract viral pneumonia just like 2003 SARS and the 1918 ‘Spanish flu’. There is no reason to think the mortality outcome would differ greatly from a very similar clinical mechanism.
Vaccine possibility
For sure, not any time soon.
The degree of difficulty is explained by the structural nature of Wuhan and its reproduction method. It is an enveloped non-segmented positive sense single strand RNA of about 30kb (the largest of any virus). The genome reads from the 5’ end. It first codes for (along about 20kb) the RNA protease ‘polyprotein’ that hijacks the host cell and causes replication. The remaining ~10kb code for 4 viral proteins separately needed to finally reassemble viable Wuhan virions: S, the pronounced spike from the envelope that gives the corona virus its generic name and enables further cell infection; N, the nucleocapsid (the capsid protein around the RNA core); M, the envelope membrane protein, and E, the envelope protein that protrudes from M but not nearly as far as S.
The obvious vaccine antibody targets are primarily S and secondarily E. That is no different than H and N in influenza. Unfortunately also like influenza, in SARS it has been shown that both S and E undergo RNA transcription error mutation, and at higher rates than one might suspect from the specifics of RNA coronavirus. Thus, like influenza, it may not be possible to develop a general Wuhan vaccine, only one of limited effectiveness against circulating virus that Wuhan will then mutate around.
Drug therapy
Here, the very new news is hopeful. Gilead Science developed remdesivir for enveloped non-segmented negative sense single strand Ebola virus. In emergency human clinical trials in Africa, it proved safe but not effective. It has shown good in vitro efficacy against SARS and MERS. And the single NEJM case report above has a definite positive proof of principle human outcome.
Based on this, China has announced a full-scale random double blind placebo controlled trial in 761 patients. As of this writing China reports successful synthesis of sufficient remdesivir active, so human testing begins today.
Of note for potential future Gilead/China intellectual property conflicts, China announced yesterday that it has applied for a patent to use remdesivir to treat human Wuhan. WUWT?
Updated WUWT conclusions
Is Wuhan a serious public health concern? Yes.
Is Wuhan a serious pandemic threat? Not yet.
If containment mainly to China via travel restrictions and 14-day quarantine can be enforced, it is probably not a pandemic threat ever to North America or Western Europe or Australia. Africa and Southeast Asia outside China, Japan, and Singapore need careful watching. And as with 2009 Swine flu, South America will be hit or miss.
Is 14-day quarantine effective? Yes.
Is a vaccine on the horizon? No.
Is a drug therapy on the horizon? Yes.
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“… today’s ‘new’ diagnosed Wuhan cases were 14840. Yesterday, using only test kits, it was 1638.”
I think there’s something wrong with these figures — either that, or I’m not understanding what’s being said.
You are not understanding, they changed the way the are diagnosing and found that the they were way under diagnosing the cases, the test kit method was not effective.
Application for Patent…DENIED…China shall not profit from potential pandemics caused by their preferred eating styles and shoddy methods of treating their people
I don’t know any details on this case, but in general patent claims are rarely allowed under 1st review and application processes themselves are long and drawn out affairs.
I would also like to know just WHERE they filed for a patent.
I’m not sure I actually believe that. It seems to me that the importance of this “crisis” increases with the number of cases, which means more money for the people ‘fighting’ the crisis.
Christopher Simpson: “I think there’s something wrong with these figures”
WR: There has been an administrative change in the system of reporting the number of cases. Not all patients could/can be tested or showed if tested a false negative result which is possible even while showing clear signs of corona. The tests are not perfect. By including ‘clinically diagnosed but non proven corona patients’ which so far only changed in the province of Hubei (!) the local system can react better on potential patients.
This administrative change caused a high surge in the number of officially reported cases. Later there were some explanations and corrections. See:
“The total number of cases reported by China now includes “clinically diagnosed cases.” These are patients who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have either not been able to get a test or are believed to have falsely tested negative.
Fisman said this was a positive move by the Chinese health authorities. “They should be applauded for that because they’re casting the net wider to try to do a better job of controlling spread from people who may not have a firm diagnosis yet,” he said.”
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/china-numbers-novel-coronavirus-intl/index.html
WR: The corrected numbers for Hubei Province for February 13 for confirmed NEW CASES and for new deaths are:
Report from Hubei province for February 13:
• 4,823 new cases (including 3,095 clinically diagnosed)
• 116 new deaths (including 8 clinically diagnosed).
• 51,986 cumulative total cases (including 15,384 clinically diagnosed)
• 36,719 currently hospitalized, of which:
– 27,081 (73.8%) in mild condition
– 7,953 (21.7%) serious
– 1,685 (4.6%) critical
• 690 new hospital discharges (including 214 clinically diagnosed)
• 166,818 close contacts have been tracked
• 77,685 people are undergoing medical observation
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#feb-14
I understand it to mean that the Chinese doctors have reassessed previous “negative” diagnosed patients with a “positive” diagnosis for the infection based upon the new revised diagnostic assessment protocol.
“The new method of counting is with CT scans (computed tomography scans) of the chest. These scans are used to diagnose standard traditional lung diseases, like pneumonia. And pneumonia is called THE “coronavirus illness.” Deaths from pneumonia in China, appear to be 300,000 per year / 3 million per decade & occurred in time periods before the purported emergence of the new coronavirus. Pneumonia has been around forever. A test for ordinary pneumonia—CT Scan—now becomes a test that delivers a diagnosis of “new epidemic coronavirus.”
Ordinary pneumonia has many causes listed in medical literature—bacteria, fungi, various viruses. You can add in massively polluted air, which hangs over major Chinese cities, such as Wuhan. No “coronavirus” needed. In the rush to diagnose as many people as possible, we have this fake method of counting cases. More grist for the propaganda mill, for inducing fear, obedience to authorities, and more profits for drug and vaccine makers. Remember, many patients diagnosed with SARS and Swine Flu didn’t have any trace of the virus either.”
But air quality is greatly improved during the Chinese New Year because factories shut down and power demand is greatly reduced.
Further, the pneumonia is viral, not bacterial, not fungal. This corona virus is real.
Yes the Corona virus is real and in a certain number of cases proceeds to pneumonia. However not all pneumonia cases in China are Corona cases. So China will go from under reporting to over reporting.
So now a diagnosis of pneumonia without a test qualifies as coronavirus? That’s what they did in Africa for AIDS. Traditional diseases like pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc were diagnosed as AIDS without antibody or PCR tests for HIV being done. It was just assumed that those normal diseases were now AIDS. Why? Money. Increased AIDS cases created more funding from world public health organizations.
So the prudent and intelligent question to ask now is, how many of these pneumonias fall outside of normal pneumonia occurrence? Lot’s of things cause pneumonia.
On average Chinese have a vitamin D deficiency. Vit D moderates immune response, minimizing things like the lungs filling up with fluid when they are under oxidative stress. So what is the genius public health response? Quarantine everyone indoors where they will get no sunlight, and consequently, no Vitamin D from sunlight. People aren’t starving, but there is less access to food, and consequently less good nutrition available. Add to that, I think they’ve lost something like 25% of their pork supply due to the swine flu (or whatever it was). So those folks may not be getting the nutrition they need to maintain optimal health, especially vitamin D.
You mentioned the massive air pollution. Folks really should image search “Wuhan air pollution” to get an idea of how much their respiratory health is compromised there. There’s nothing like it in the West. It has at times had the worst air quality in China.
And then there’s the fact that 68% of Chinese men smoke cigarettes; another huge negative load on their respiratory systems. Has anyone seen a breakdown of cases/deaths according to gender (only 3% of women smoke)?
And then there’s the 10,000 node 5G network in Wuhan that was completed in Dec 2019, just when the coronavirus thing began. Lots of health concerns there. How much are their immune systems being compromised by that? Honest question to ask.
So with all of these anomalous environmental and nutritional stressors, I’m putting my money on this thing not going beyond the borders of China to any significant degree.
Excellent summary by – Rud Istvan
The Director of the US Centers of Disease Control stated on CNN that he believes that the Wuhan Virus is no longer stoppable and it will develop into community based transmission.
It is logical that the death rate from the Wuhan Virus would be lower in the US due to less smokers and less people with respirator damage due to pollution….
… that does not stop, however stop the virus from spreading and reaching let say a country in Africa where it cannot be contained.
The problem in the case of the Wuhan Virus is the number of cases (easy to spread), the delay in symptoms (a carry may not know they are a carrier), and the fact there are some people who have a mild cases (in Africa where there are no testing kits and getting fevers is common) that increases the chance of the virus becoming a community based disease ….
….. coupled with the amount of air travel between China the rest of world. For example there are six direct flights a day from China to Ethiopia from four different Chinese cities.
From discussions concerning SARS it was stated when the number of cases reaches over a 100,000 it is not possible to completely stop the disease.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html
Right now we’re in an aggressive containment mode,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.
“We don’t know a lot about this virus,” he said. “This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission.”
The other issue is that an RNA based virus will continue to mutate which means there will never be a perfect
Unfortunately also like influenza, in SARS it has been shown that both S and E undergo RNA transcription error mutation, and at higher rates than one might suspect from the specifics of RNA coronavirus. Thus, like influenza, it may not be possible to develop a general Wuhan vaccine, only one of limited effectiveness against circulating virus that Wuhan will then mutate around.
Oh check this out. 68% of Chinese men smoke. In one study, guess what percentage men comprised early cases of coronavirus (i.e., pneumonia) in Wuhan? 68%
Men could be more vulnerable to coronavirus infection as research finds they made up 68% of early cases in outbreak epicenter of Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7992321/Men-account-68-coronavirus-cases-research-suggests.html
Children are hardly affected by coronavirus. Mostly males between 50-65 are affected. Children haven’t been smoking for 30-45 years like 50-65 year old men who started smoking in their 20s have.
Also, the thymus shrinks with age, reducing T-cell production. T-cells are the immune system agents that destroy virii. So with age comes a potentially weakened immune system. There’s very little zinc in food, and zinc is essential for T-cell production. Build up the thymus with zinc supplementation so that there’s always enough T-cells on call to rip the little virus bastards to shreds when they show up, before they can cause too much damage.
The 1st 68% you mention is 68% of men smoke (32% of men don’t smoke.) The 2nd 68% you mention is 68% of early cases are men (32% of early cases are women) Purely coincidence, no causation or correlation can be implied from this data.
You do know that “virii” is not an actual word?
Viri has been used humorously in the jocular sense WRT computer viruses in some circles.
Virii might be the plural of the word virius if there was such a word.
What are the plurals of campus, or bonus?
Medical Latin generally sticks to correct grammatical Latin.
Just sayin.
a1smith, yes, but those figures do signify 1) more men than women (to a very large degree) engage in behavior that is known to severely damage lung tissue and overall health, and 2) men are twice as likely to get pneumonia from the corona virus that apparently targets lung tissue.
Yet both groups suffer lung tissue damage equally from severe long-term air pollution, excepting children, who haven’t lived long enough to incur the same cumulative damage. So we see twice as many men, the group with greater impaired health from smoking, getting pneumonia, compared to women. and children hardly getting sick at all.
icisil – You state:
“Yet both groups suffer lung tissue damage equally from severe long-term air pollution, excepting children, who haven’t lived long enough to incur the same cumulative damage.”
How do you know that men and women (of the same age) in that area have the same exposure to the air pollution? There multiple confounding factors – how much time they spend outside, what type of job they have, where they are outside, whether they lived there all of their life, etc.
RE: “blockquote>Folks really should image search “Wuhan air pollution” to get an idea of how much their respiratory health is compromised there. There’s nothing like it in the West.
I think it’s every Chinese city. My daughter taught school in Xian, and had to wear a face mask even for her short subway rides with all the other be-masked morning and afternoon commuters. Then she taught in Beijing, where … well, same thing. As far as I know the paper masks were designed and work well for particulates characteristic of so many dusty jobs, not so much for smoke or fumes of any kind, and probably minimally effective against vapors.
“There’s nothing like it in the West “
– Nowadays.
Now, when I were a little chap in London, 1952, we had a smog like that.
The beginning of the end of the Pea Soupers, thanks to the subsequent Clean Air Acts. (The first being pushed through by Cross Party Back Benchers, not the Government.)
Smog was just as bad mid 60’s in Birmingham UK, must have been even worse just up the road in the Black Country where the heavier industry was located.
Those pollution images are frightening.
They’re dystopian. There’s no way we can get a realistic determination of this corona virus’ virulence based on an affected populace that lives immersed in that kind of respiratory toxicity.
“MERS 2012: 779 deaths from 2229 total infections, mortality 35.5%. Not transmissible prior to symptom onset. Bat corona via live camel intermediate to humans in a Saudi Arabian camel market.”
In some societies, MERS is an STD. They must quarantine the camels.
I found the article interesting, but you point out a major glaring mistaken assumption. Having dealt with Chinese officials over the past 20 years, I would not give any credence to their official figures of infections or death. Just look at what happened to the original Chinese officials – they’ve been deep-sixed. Most people are naive at how heavy handed the Communist Party’s political influence is when events like this occur. These officials will hide everything to put on a happy face to the rest of the world. I guess, this is a long winded way of stating these numbers are meaningless and so is this article.
Thank you Rud Istvan
..and more thank yous Rud…..thank you for this update
My fear….Mexico, Central America, Caribben…and even South America
…they have no way to treat this effectively….quarantine
and if it gets there….we have no way of stopping the millions of people that will try to come here
Actually we do. We just don’t have the will to use it….yet.
“China announced yesterday that it has applied for a patent to use remdesivir to treat human Wuhan. WUWT?”
Since remdesivir has already been used to treat Wuhan, and this has been described in the open literature, such a patent would be disallowed under the “existing knowledge” rule.
In the US there is a one year grace period. File before the year is up and you can get the patent, assuming all other requirements are met.
Used to be first to invent, now it’s first to file but public disclosure made before filing can invalidate later applications. All of this is addressed by the Patent Cooperation Treaty.
Public disclosure (by the inventors) in the US can invalidate later application – you have 1 year to file after public disclosure. In other countries, public disclosure ends ability to file.
In ALL countries, public disclosure by someone else ALWAYS ends ability to file because it is prior art and was “invented” by someone else.
Actually it was the America Invents Act for that caused the US to move from a First Invent to a First to File system.
I think most nations also have provisions for ignoring patent restrictions when national security becomes an issue.
Very intriguing remark :
“Gilead Science developed remdesivir for enveloped non-segmented negative sense single strand Ebola virus.
Wuhan is an enveloped non-segmented positive sense single strand RNA of about 30kb (the largest of any virus). The genome reads from the 5’ end. ”
Please clarify – are we dealing with some kind of opposite chirality in both cases?
Good question;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus
Doesn’t really matter though in terms of viral targets – e.g. the protease. The amino acid sequence is what it it is, however it gets to be a protease enzyme.
I would write more, but it would only get confusing re coding sequences as you may know.
I’m an industrial molecular biologist. Synthesizing “coding sequences” is my day job and that’s what we call them, even though they are the complement of what the tRNAs read.
Sorry I broke the rule of don’t use Wikipedia as a reference.
Wikipedia is fine for non controversial subject material.
Not even that. One page claimed that some bombs created an implosion by sucking up oxygen. A real negative explosion. LOL
Fuel Air Bombs have been known to suck the air out of buildings.
A chemical reaction that explosively sucks up O2?
For real?
Yup.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon
Same thing happens in grain elevator explosions, when fine wheat chaff dust ignites to create an accidental FAE.
There are something like 48,000,000 articles in Wikipedia.
Some on the controversial topics are known to be written and edited by people with known biases.
Others are regarding subjects that are not at all controversial, although this hardly means that nothing in any particular article is universally agreed upon.
But to cite one detail of one article, by way of dismissing the value as reference material for 48,000,000 articles, without even quoting a sentence, makes it fairly clear to me why you are unable to comprehend something complicated and nuanced like immunology.
Even if the criticism you make had merit, which it seems not to, that is not even a good reason to dismiss the rest of the one single “page” you mention.
Anyone who knows how to interpret what they are reading knows one has to look at the sources off any information, especially one that is crowd sourced. Some passages in some article are not sourced, and are edited by numerous individuals hundreds of times a day.
And of course, no one could find controversy on a subject like fuel air explosions…or anything else to do with warfare or munitions…is that the logic?
Why not give your thoughts, NG, on the subject at hand: Do you have some criticism of the explanations presented regarding the question about chirality and sense vs antisense RNA?
An explosive reaction that causes an implosion by sucking up air?
That’s ridiculous. Does not even pass the smell test.
The fact you can’t see as ridiculous just shows how ignorant you are of chemical and physical science.
Also, I’m not following your link. WP is a swamp and I’m not reading the page.
CS pages also suck pretty badly.
I have not seen anyone but you use the word implosion.
Not that this has anything to do with what was being discussed.
Fuel air explosion:
https://youtu.be/GmRASCHJe2Q
House does not explode, it collapses in on itself, mostly.
Same with this mannikin:
https://youtu.be/j9xCgNdZPKk
As always, you utterly missed the point.
Does the chain chemical reaction sucks up O2?
Nope. Never. Preposterous.
Do FAE consume available oxygen?
Yes.
That was not any part of what was being discussed until you brought it up as a non sequitur reason for believing that Wikipedia could not be trusted for reference even in the case of non controversial subjects.
Of course this is the sort of reasoning you used to dismiss all of medical science.
You make some claim which is made up in your own mind, dismiss it as wrong, then by extension dismiss anything having any relation to that subject.
Just as I knew you were lying when you said you were done replying to my comments, I know it is impossible for you to learn anything, agree with anybody, or demonstrate any understanding of any subject whatsoever.
Here you are, interjecting pointlessly, commenting nonsensically, going off on tangents obtusely, and dodging questions predictably.
And here we all are, either ignoring you, or wondering if you will ever, even once, say one single thing, write one single sentence, that is either intelligent, interesting, or funny.
One can make incorrect arguments intelligently, or spin tall tales of pure malarkey that are at least interesting, or make a fool of oneself in a humorous way.
Just not you.
And incredibly, you now claim that a fuel air explosion does not consume oxygen.
Your case for being elected Dumbest Jackass on the Planet is getting stronger every minute.
NG,
How about looking at the sources cited by Wiki?
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/vacuum+bomb
https://web.archive.org/web/20120620195658/http://www.algeria-isp.com/actualites/politique-libye/201110-A6546/libye-otan-utilise-une-bombe-fae-fuel-air-explosive-surnommee-bombe-atomique-pauvre-bani-walid-octobre-2011.html
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/cbu-72.htm
I’m surprised that anyone alive today with the least interest in current events could have missed FAEs.
Look up BLU-82B bomb, nicknamed “Daisy Cutter” in Vietnam, dropped by C-130.
Its modern replacement is the MOAB:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm
“Do FAE consume available oxygen?”
Does a coal locomotive?
“non sequitur reason for believing that Wikipedia could not be trusted for reference even in the case of non controversial subjects.”
Just because you can’t follow a simplistic argument doesn’t make it wrong. It just makes you look silly.
“Of course this is the sort of reasoning you used to dismiss all of medical science.”
Nope. You lie. You made that up.
“You make some claim which is made up in your own mind, dismiss it as wrong,”
Nope. You lie. You made that up.
“How about looking at the sources cited by Wiki?”
Thanks you for pointing out WP relies on a news article as scientific source…
lol
NG,
Do you really want to deny that FAEs consume oxygen?
What part of “air” don’t you understand?
On your home planet, is seeing believing?
NG,
Clearly you’ve never been to a war thrown since 1970.
John, Nicholas: you are dismissed.
I took the most simple and obvious example of a patent nonsense from WP and you sided with WP. You are incapable of following any science discussion and even of understanding English. Also you are arrogant, dismissive, silly, inept, insufferable.
I give up on you.
GO AWAY NOW
It is not a question of chirality.
At least that term is not used in this context.
Chiral molecules are identical except to the handedness of the assembly.
Two DNA strand are complimentary, with opposite base pairs on the homologous strand section.
The two strands of a DNA molecule are not mirror images of each other.
Negative vs positive sense has to do with whether the viral RNA is in the form of a template for protein synthesis, or if it is the complementary strand. The opposite sense strand is used to make this translation- ready mRNA.
mRNA that is the correct configuration for translating directly into amino acid sequences is used to define positive sense, by convention.
Here are a few pictures that illustrate the genetic code, transcription, and translation.
Three base pairs define one codon, and certain codons correspond to specific amino acids.
To make the mRNA which contains the codons for a protein being synthesized, the opposite sense strand must be used.
In humans though, both strands of DNA have segments that are used for transcription, and sometimes a strand is read in both directions.
https://twitter.com/NickMcGinley1/status/1106122132722016258?s=20
LMAO!!!
LMAO with C₆H₁₂O₆ on it!
What…I amuse you?
:-/
And once again you are avoiding the fact the flu vaccine is considered one of the most inept and useless of all recommended vaccines. There is zero evidence it’s useful for any target group.
Maybe, maybe not. I get a flu shot every year (and currently get the high-potency shots, since I’m over 65). I don’t know if I’ve ever had the flu, since I never experience muscle aches, and don’t get a fever when I have a cold or flu-like illness. But I’m very susceptible to getting colds/coughs. I’m afraid if I contract the coronavirus, I’ll be history. BTW, I take every immunization offered to me, because I think it may make my immune system more effective.
You might have been protected by the vaccine.
You might have had influenza without noticing it and you might have been contaminating others, possibly causing more dangers to others than if you never had a vaccine.
Nobody knows.
The vaccine may be beneficial for some and harmful for others.
The vaccine may create “herd immunity” and or it may weaken it.
If flu vaccine reduces my chance to getting the flu by 30 percent, it’s worth it to me. I have asthma and do not want complications from flu. Does flu vaccine also reduce severity of flu?
What if the vaccine makes you sick for a week with a “flu”? (extremely common case and shameful event for MD who promote the vaccine)
What if it makes you vulnerable for many months?
What if it wrecks your immune system?
What if it gives a lifelong debilitating illness?
Why are you willing to take such risks for vague potential to decrease a risk from potential exposure?
What other untested and objectively defective drugs are you willing to test?
If you are willing to risk your life, why don’t you get paid for it?
There’s a small chance it could save someone’s life. For sure like the lottery, you won’t win if you don’t play.
The flu vaccine destroyed the lives of many children, so there is that.
The children did not have a word on that. They never chose to “play”.
Guy,
Please state which kids’ lives were ruined by flu vaccine?
Had there been one in 1957, when I was six, my life would have been greatly improved.
The flu vaccine at the worst will give you a sore shoulder an a bit of a fever the next day.
It protects you against the strains in the shot for many months. It doesn’t protect you against strains that aren’t in the shot.
It boosts the immune system.
It gives no illnesses.
I don’t know where you go for your paranoia, but you really should try cutting back.
John, I’m guessing that he’s going to claim that Autism is caused by vaccines.
I have never understood comments like “wrecks your immune system”. It is simply not possible to wreck your immune system by challenging it to function in its usual fashion. In fact it has the opposite effect. You’re scaremongering and spreading false information.
He just makes stuff up.
He is either a troll, or completely uneducated at a level that would allow one to make even a weakly supported opinion.
So far dozens of comments and little but insults and plainly false assertions.
Not one word that has moved any conversation forward or attempted to supply information, or to gather any.
He must be a child.
No one who has any sense of mortality, or has known anyone who ever died of an infectious disease, or who ever had their life saved from any medication whatsoever, could ever make the sort of idiotic and paranoid statements and just plain jackass questions we see here.
I would like to know what sort of person enjoys making a fool of themselves in such a way, in such a place as this forum?
My guess is there are few places in the world where one is less likely to successfully BS anyone.
“The flu vaccine at the worst will give you a sore shoulder an a bit of a fever the next day.”
Not true. Why do you deny the victims of the “pandemic” flu vaccine?
What are your sources? You evidence?
You have none. You also have no qualification in that area.
It’s common knowledge that many people fall sick for a week with “the flu” after vaccination. Even vaxxer accept that fact. You even deny officially recognized SE. My God.
@Mod
Please suppress the insulting messages. This thread is bad.
“It is simply not possible to wreck your immune system by challenging it to function in its usual fashion”
There are hundreds of thousands of victims of the hep B vaccine who would disagree. That vaccine is said to have caused the health catastrophe of the century at least in France.
There is nothing normal or natural in the formulation of these GMO like vaccines. There is nothing natural with injecting dead fetus parts. There is nothing natural with mercury compounds injections. No injection is natural. Fear of injection is natural. The skin is a natural barrier. You deny basic biology.
Do you deny the explosion of MS?
You are gonna find no one gets suppressed here for expressing an opinion.
You ought to know that…few hove been as completely fact free and insulting as you have been, not recently anyway.
Literally every word you write is unsubstantiated, an outright lie, or just plain makes no sense.
Most of the people who contribute to these threads will not say anything to you because they see that you are a miserable fool, and besides most can hardly figure out where to start with refuting the Gish Gallup of utter crap you spew.
The only reason I do is to try to gain some insight into what makes someone like you get the way you are.
I challenge you directly, to provide substantiation for even one of the statements you have made in this sub thread.
Just one.
Anyone who thought they were right would substantiate every word they have said…back it up and stand behind it.
You do not even stick to one point of view for an entire day, or in one conversation thread.
Prove me wrong.
“Had there been one in 1957, when I was six, my life would have been greatly improved.”
Another evidence free statement from the serial evidence free claimer.
What suggests that the vaccine is EVER beneficial?
“You ought to know that…few hove been as completely fact free and insulting as you have been, not recently anyway.”
STOP LYING
Vaxxers are always lying, insulting, making up stuff, denying the fact they rely on a researcher on the FBI MOST WANTED LIST. You are an FBI MOST WANTED enabler.
Yes I deny that any vaccine caused a pandemic.
What you claim to be common knowledge is nothing of the sort.
I get a vaccination every single year and once in awhile I have a sore shoulder, I’ve never had a fever from one. My wife and daughter sometimes get a light fever for half a day or so.
Your paranoia can be treated by some basic knowledge, assuming you have to courage to seek it out.
Those hundreds of thousands of victims exist in your fevered imagination alone.
And while there has been an a slight uptick in MS, it’s mostly from better screening.
This guy is either completely mentally unstable, or he’s a 10 year old who just enjoys pissing in the pool to see how others react.
I’m done with him.
NG,
Please see the numerous studies cited here showing the effectiveness of flu vaccines:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm
Not that I expect any actual evidence to penetrate your fact-free prejudices.
“And while there has been an a slight uptick in MS, it’s mostly from better screening.”
Tripling of a debilitating illness, in France.
What screening? What the hell are you babbling about? Why do you deny accepted facts?
Actually the criteria has been changed at least twice to make it harder to declare MS. Also the MD on Twitter do not even agree what the criteria is and change their tune all the time, because they are in denial. The biggest in medical history.
John, no one expects YOU to produce ONE PIECE of relevant evidence. You are an unqualified brainwashed bigot.
I’m done with you.
“This guy is either completely mentally unstable, or he’s a 10 year old who just enjoys pissing in the pool to see how others react.”
@moderator
PLEASE do something about that deranged ranting.
“John, I’m guessing that he’s going to claim that Autism is caused by vaccines.”
What makes you believe it is not, unqualified bigot, enabler of FBI MOST WANTED felons?
My wife has asthma. Prior to the arrival of flu vaccine she regularly ended up in hospital once or twice a year with pneumonia and severe asthma-like flairs which more than once nearly killed her. Since the flu shots she has not had a single such bout.
Good for her, note that many people have as good testimony for homeopathy.
Millions of people every year find benefit in homeopathy?
More than just “millions” buy homeopathy and claim they get a very visible positive effect, for them, their children, their cows…
I agree with your logic, but good luck persuading the illogical.
Not a correct interpretation of the comment.
He said that there is no vaccine that works against all flu strains. He didn’t say that the vaccine was totally ineffective.
Yes, look at the CDC stats. The problem arises from the H – N configuration of the flu virus such that there are 236 possible combinations – many of which are expressed as being infectious to humans. Mutations occur quite rapidly so that the vaccine developed last year might not be so effective this year. At present the annual seasonal flu vaccine in use in Western countries contains four strains of flu virus. The strains of the virus which circulate in the USA during the Northern Hemisphere winter are identified by CDC and these strains are adopted by the World Health Organisation as the recommended strains for vaccine production world wide. So in Australia we receive vaccines which MIGHT provide protection during the Southern Hemisphere winter six months after the US flu season. The effective protection by vaccines in the US is quite low and very very low in Australia. I am 73 years old and have had one bout of flu during my life. I never have a flu vaccine injection because the chances of the vaccine providing protection are so slight. I am fully aware that the vaccine contains a’killed’ virus and that it is not possible to be infected by the vaccine. But it is a dreadful waste of public money to vaccinate so many people each year. Worse, are the raised raise expectations amongst the population that the vaccine is effective. This encourages vaccinated persons to neglect the use of common sense precautions against flu infection – such as regular hand washing, staying away from school and the office when infection does strike, careful attention to hydration, good nutrition, bed rest etc etc
Mutation, or different selection?
“At [present] the annual seasonal flu vaccine in use in Western countries contains four strains of flu virus. ”
And yet the 2019-nCoV virus is the cause of pneumonia in China — correct me if I am wrong but are not 90 Bacterium responsible for Pneumonia, how many versions of fungi?
Hoe many late-life heavy smokers get pneumonia?
It is good to have such an effective medicine BEFORE the virus strikes.
According to Science magazine, Wuhan was unleashed at least in November, may be even as early as October 1st. The wet market was certainly NOT the place of first contact.
Where it came from?
Chinese eat raw meat since ages.
But the Wuhan biolab level 4 stays there since 2018 only and is lead by military.
Please
You’re welcome.
Steven,
I agree with your sentiment.
A result of the collapse of American’s confidence in institutions – esp. the press (well-deserved collapse) – American’s have become prey to misinformation vendors. That has become a fast track to success on the Internet, from the Right (eg, Zerohedge) to the Left (eg, Naked Capitalism).**
The scarier the story, the less accurate the stories. That’s true from Climate Change to Coronavirus. Institutions trying to keep us informed about these complex and poorly understood issues (eg, IPCC and NOAA) are attacked by both sides. People often express the most confidence in the most bogus sources.
** These are not equivalent. Naked Capitalism is like the Britannica compared to ZeroHedge.
I do wish people would stop with the Wuhan Lab nonsense. First, whether or not it came from the lab does not in any way change what it is doing and how we should respond. Second, those live animal markets are far better places to create such a virus than any lab because humans simply aren’t that good compared to Nature. Third and most important, we have the sequence, therefore we would know if it was a bioweapon. (Granted the governments might choose not to tell us but see my first comment.)
Giant viruses and maybe some other types have genomes ten to 100 times larger than Wuhan’s:
https://www.giantvirus.org/top.html
True. I meant human viruses and should have been clearer.
The giant Mimivirus causes pneumonia in humans. Its genome is 1.2 million bp long. It’s a DNA virus, but even a single strand is 20 times the size of Wuhan’s RNA. Megavirus (1.3 Mbp) also infects people:
http://www.virology.ws/2013/07/10/the-largest-viral-genome-from-a-human/
John, come on. Rather than picking fact nits based on obviously irrelevant internet virus queries, how about you contributing here to the epidemiology knowledge of this increasingly serious Wuhan killer, newly renamed by WHO CoViD-19. The renaming itself is an indicator of seriousness.
Your troll like efforts to discredit my admittedly (previous post) only informed laymen’s effort to add value are exactly why my previous post was explicitly motivated by climate change analogies.
As for the relevance of genome size to this epidemic, perhaps you meant to say that CoVs have the largest genomes among RNA viruses.
This paper on bat CoVs came out just as the Wuhan epidemic was taking off.
https://msphere.asm.org/content/5/1/e00807-19
Coronaviruses (CoVs) have the largest nonsegmented genomes among all RNA viruses, reaching up to 30 kb in length. The large genomes enhance plasticity, thereby allowing modification by mutations and recombination, which in turn leads to greater genetic diversity and high chances of cross-species transmission (1, 2). The major reason for this phenomenon may be the numerous subgenomic RNAs generated during viral replication, which increase the chance of homologous recombination among closely related genes from different lineages of CoVs or other viruses (3, 4). As a result, CoV taxonomy is constantly changing.
Rud,
My point is that the Wuhan virus doesn’t have the largest genome of any human virus. It doesn’t. Not even close.
IMO, that fact is hardly irrelevant.
I appreciate the effort you’ve put into this project. How is correcting an error trolling?
I also don’t think it’s a fact that the Spanish flu began at Fort Riley. That’s an hypothesis.
Is it verified that the virus originated in a pangolin at a wet market in Wuhan and not from one of the Wuhan chemical/biological warfare labs. Is there scientific proof that the latter is not the case?
Yes. See my Sunday post. 99% match between pangolin corona and human Wuhan corona. And about half the early cases had the wet market contact.
No way to disprove the Wuhan BL4 lab internet rumor vehemently denied by the lab director.
https://www.who.int/csr/don/16-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-japan-ex-china/en/
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/135/htm
Pangolin or another animal is a cover story, verified by the head of WIV (Wuhan Institute of Virology).
Why have they stopped testing and confirm cases by x-ray?
Why so many sick that were not at that market, or involved with anyone at that market, it was closed for renovations (sic) Jan 1/2020?
Why is it not something else, pneumonia kills hundreds of thousands in polluted Chinese cities?
Staphylococcus aureus: an opportunistic microbiota of all humans is famous under stressed bodily weakness as in a stressed immunity, not the culprit here. Under normal body conditions, its presence is a benefit for both organisms. But its immunomodulating in weaker immunities like the ones found in highly polluted Chinese cities. is all a cytokine storm from the inflammation that will flood the inner lining of the lungs and viral pneumonia is eventual. There is much to support this as Chinese are dying in the 100’s of thousands of pneumonia.
Why is it not a case of Wuhan being an open sore, an open laboratory of the stressed lung subjects that are ideal for a study of this new wonder pro-drug, a new and improved pro-drug using nanotechnology, might this make it onto the world stage and make everyone forget how it gets there?
Remdesivir was a failed Ebola drug looking for a disease?
The placebo effect is highly possible and can easily be used as the out of China’s reason for those international illnesses.
Why did the Washington case where the new drug was used not show a viral load in blood serum and kept coming up negative — and this is also the case in the German patients who were asymptomatic?
Why did the new pro-drug work so dam quick in Washington? It was used on compassionate grounds they say, could it have been a test on a more healthy human, as compared to Wuhan victims? And why is it not being used in China, and why was it released to the press that tests on the drug in China were ongoing?
Why did Shi Zhengli, from her dark hideaway in WIV say it was a “The novel 2019 corona-virus is nature punishing the human race for keeping uncivilized living habits.” Why did she verify an animal when she works with bats and verified she they had the most extensive bat virus database?
That is an unusual thing to let slip?
Why/what is the connection with the Harvard professor who was working for the WUT (Wuhan Institute of Technology) and the WIV — and was paid huge amounts of money — connected stolen vials purported to be cancer research?
What was the connection to the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) officer on the same U.S. government docket? Was this PLA officer, Yanqing Ye a sheepdog of Dr. Charles Lieber and also doing some clandestine corporate tech pillaging while here?
You said…
“Scientists last week also traced the source. There are two clues. Wuhan is now known to be 96% genetically similar to an endemic Asian bat corona. Like SARS and ‘Spanish flu’, it jumped to humans via an intermediate mammal species. No bats were sold in the Huanan wet market in Wuhan. But pangolins were, and as of Friday, there is a 99% genetic match between pangolin corona and Wuhan human corona. Trade in wild pangolins is illegal, but the meat is considered a delicacy in China and Vietnam and pangolins WERE sold in the Wuhan wet market. This is is similar to SARS in 2003. A bat corona jumped to humans via live civets in another Chinese wet market. Xi’s ‘simple’ permanent SARS/Wuhan coronavirus solution is to ban Chinese wet markets.”
…99% match? That is fairly finite and assured, but you are not even close.
You said…There were two clues: It is [96% connected to bat virus] and since no bats were sold at the market, but pangolins were sold. Viola’! Then the pangolin is the suspect here. There is a similarity to the 2003 SARS outbreak, and that was a jump from a bat to a civet in another Chinese wet market? All these questions?
So, therefore “these two things are not like the others, but quite the same…”, so is it the same thing in Wuhan. Besides producing some extravagantly priced coffee beans. Civets are not bat eaters. Is it because Pholidota shares the same family tree as Chiroptera or did the pangolin eat the fucking bat. Because pangolins are insect eaters. Because this is hypotheses, rather scientific fact. Your reaching here Rud…
You are using one assumption to verify another assumption, but no physical evidence, no dead civet or dead pangolin seething putrid with coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
“Indeed, to this day, I think if you blame everything on the government, you’re not just wrong, you’re being reckless. It’s as silly as blaming everything on the Freemasons, or the Illuminati, or insert-bad-guy-here. But I do believe that someone must ask the hard questions, especially of our elected officials as well as powerful men who become members of so-called secret societies. Remember: Governments don’t lie. People lie. And if you want the real story, you need to find out more about those people.”–Brad Meltzer
And the above quote is more of an explanation that you realize. Too much fun stuff going on here: Professors, Chinese agents, stolen vials, a new wonder drug, fudged numbers and a whole lot more, But two innocents Scrotifera caught in a rice-bowl is not going to stick.
There are more questions than answers Rud. I interested really and playing the tenth man here…my argument has substanc
there have been accidental escapes prior from bio4 labs in usa canada and the uk, sterilizing machinery faults material not burnt filters in hoods faulty etc
I did read they ARE looking into the lab and tightening procedures up.
all it takes is a leaky pipe.. a spill wiped up and a mop or paper towel incorrectly disposed of
Excuse me, I lived in Winnipeg from before the lab was constructed and I know of no incident where any virus escaped the Winnipeg lab. Therefore I simply don’t believe you when you say “there have been accidental escapes prior from bio4 labs in usa canada and the uk”
I agree, there have not been accidental escapes!.
The cultural propensity to misdirect does not instill any confidence in reported stats .
Time will tell .
GILD shot up from under $63 on Jan 31 to over $71 earlier this month, but is now trading around $68, with a P/E below 16.
The clinical trial in COVID19 patients is due to wrap up in April, but if other patients respond like the one in Washington, expect them to discontinue the study and give real drug to everyone.
After all, if everyone getting the drug improves, but placebo patients do not, it is unethical to continue in the case of life threatening illness.
Even if China gets a special use patent, or if they ignore IP rights, they will pay a royalty or face sanctions.
GILD April or May call options is one way to play it.
Of course, there are two other drugs/drug combos reported to be showing some efficacy. In the case of remdesivir, it was not reported to be completely useless, just that it was not the best drug for the purpose. IOW it showed no clear advantage over alternate treatments.
But the data was sufficient to establish safety…meaning it is unlikely to kill someone who takes it.
Safety means something different when a drug is treating a fatal illness.
The multiple stages of clinical trials are for the purpose of establishing in stepwise fashion safety and efficacy in progressively larger numbers of people.
But even then, it happens occasionally that safety issues only emerge once a drug is approved and far larger numbers of people take something under conditions that are not stringently monitored and controlled.
Since that’s the case, how can we possibly avoid a pandemic in the USA, given our porous southern border? Maybe we need a vastly accelerated border wall completion schedule.
It would have to be a “wall” of people and technology, not steel beams or concrete.
Sure, a wall of people and technology.
No virus can penetrate that.
Physical barriers are in addition to people and technology.
No one thinks a wall by itself is all that is needed.
Barriers slow people down, and prevent unfettered access.
Which makes people and technology far more effective.
I have a number of concerns with this article from the trivial to the more concerning.
First: While there have been a number of names proposed for this new virus, “Wuhan” is not one of them. It has been officially given the name COVID-19 by the WHO.
Second: The mortality of the infection has not been and cannot currently be determined, but using the ratio deaths/recovered is a completely misleading and inaccurate method. It is simply not the way mortality rates are calculated.
I don’t know about the rest of the visitors to this site, but I prefer to get information from appropriate sources. Lay reports re-posted from business magazines are not the best sources for accurate medical information. Perhaps readers here might want to check out the following: https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 for an informed understanding of the mortality rate situation.
“How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak”
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
Yes, Wim, it is from that site that I got the one I mentioned in my post.
Thank you Wim, very informative.
I agree with Chris. Journalists with little or no medical knowledge listen to briefings, then write articles, read by people with little or no medical knowledge – producing the current chaotic stew of misinformation.
For an easy and clear daily update, I recommend the WHO website. Most of what’s discussed here and in the general news comes from the WHO briefings. They are clear, designed for journalists and the general public.
For example, they gave a clear example of why China changed their reporting system. Amateur alarmists went hysterical about this. Readers of WUWT would, I hope, be skeptical of their rants. Begins on the bottom of page 9:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-full-press-conference-12feb2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=ef1ba2bf_2
There is the daily situation report:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
The daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings#
The Director-General of WHO has given frequent briefings, which are imo quite insightful:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail
I agree with Chris.
Dr Michael J Ryan at the Feb 13 WHO press briefing:
Sad but true since the US public prefers exciting misinformation. Climate science isn’t an exception, it’s typical.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-full-press-conference-13feb2020-final.pdf
Just because some people might want that, is no excuse for responsible news organizations to give it to them.
Unfortunately, the days of prudent and responsible reporting by the msm seems like a happy memory at best.
If it bleeds, it leads has always been a news editors mantra, but there were some organizations that did not let that dictate how ALL news was covered.
Agree.
Also if COVID-19 is like SARSCoV, then it encodes 4 additional non-structural proteins in the 3’ end of the genome.
Deletion of each of those SARS unique accessory proteins had no effect on cell culture growth of the virus. So the only way to test the theory they involve intact immune system suppression would be an experimental animal. The function of those accessory proteins where never determined but likely involved intact host immune system suppression since they were conserved in the human SARSCoV isolates. Unfortunately only the cynomolgus macaques monkeys were found to replicate most of the SARSCoV human symptoms of severe respiratory involvement. To my knowledge those live animal experiments were never carried out as they involved very significant expense and risk to lab personnel. After SARS was successfully eradicated from human circulation, most lab work on fully virulent SARS isolates was shutdown outside all but CDC BSL4 facilities.
What is really scary now is the likely epidemic of CVID-19 in North Korea. They porous smuggling between between China and North Koreas borders means it is certainly in the North Korean population. That closed society does not have the medical resources to contain the spread by identification and isolation. How that turns out remains to be seen. COVID-19 potentially could bring an end to the North Korean regime and many of its people.
Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) is a BSL4 constructed in 2015.
Who in the West can really be sure of what was going on at that Wuhan Lab with Chinese military personnel working there.
My reference was to the US research.
Joel O’Bryan: What is really scary now is the likely epidemic of CVID-19 in North Korea.””
There was a message on Twitter about sickness cases in North Korea some days ago: https://twitter.com/The_Daily_NK/status/1225737983497822208?s=20
Thank you Rud Istvan!
I’ve read that the current test kits can only test for upper respiratory infection and since COVID-19 is a lower respiratory illness on onset, many negative tests will occur until the virus migrates/spreads to other parts of the respiratory tract. Hence a perso initially tests negative then positive a few days later. This is why they switched protocols to include more lung scans in the diagnosis. Unfortunately for the City of Wuhan, the shear number of cases overwhelmed the ability to test more robustly so suspected infected were sent home in favor of those showing severe symptoms and testing positive.
Officials decided to then go door to door and the numbers of infected and deaths are now ramping up. It will take time since infected persons were sent home to potentially infect others.
We have family and friends in Wuhan including healthcare workers.
The early Lancet and NEJM articles suggested the primary area of preference for nCoV was indeed the Lower Respiratory Tract, leading to the idea that the virus is tailored for gaining cell entry via ACE2 receptors.
So probably the reason for the tests being somewhat unreliable unless repeated, as is becoming more widely known and accepted.
For persons interested
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Rgds
J.-P. D.
This looks interesting…thank you
I just saw Willis’s list on the previous thread of actions to take, and, while it is a good list of preventative steps, it does not address the side of the equation related to strengthening one’s immune system. For those of us with an overall health and longevity focus, maximizing immune function is usually step number one so I will add a brief starter list here. As with everything I would encourage people to do their own research and expand on each of these accordingly. A quick list would be:
1. Get plenty of high-quality sleep: Being sleep-deprived is one of the surest ways to suppress immunity.
2. Avoid unnecessary stress: Stress is also a strong immune suppressor. For example, if there is a flu outbreak near you, that is not the time to embark on a new program at the gym that could lead to overtraining, or to add discretionary job stress.
3. Correct potential nutrient deficiencies: Err on the high side for (at a minimum) Magnesium, Zinc and Vitamins C, A D and K2. A multi-vitamin is nowhere near enough and may not have quality forms of these. Additionally taking extra (as in multiple rams per day) Vitamin C, preferably liposomal Vitamin C may have benefit and is one of my mainstays when I feel something coming on. Getting brief mid-day sun exposure if you are where the sun is above an angle of 50 degrees is also likely to be helpful.
4. Fasting: Fasting for several days has apparently been shown to have strong immune system benefits, as well as numerous other benefits. This is obviously something to work up to but it is worth investigating if you are serious about optimal health.
5. Correct any signs of digestive disorders, especially SIBO: The gut ecosystem is an important component of the immune system and resolving any signs of SIBO, mid-section bloat or other digestive issues is critical for immune health. This is much easier said than done and is a much longer topic, but many people are not aware that it is even an issue.
There are lots of other things that can be done as well but the important thing is to make maximizing your resistance to disease a priority. How much this will help against the coronavirus is unknown at this point, but it is unlikely to hurt. It is interesting that early on in the spread of the virus it was reported that (presumably Type II) diabetics were at higher risk, and while that could be due to many things, it is a reminder that one of the key tenets of overall health is to avoid chronically elevated insulin, so that is another variable to address.
And most importantly, thanks to Rud for his summary!
This is important and especially important to me who has had whipple surgery. I didn’t know about fasting helping, although I do time restricted eating right now. Thank you.
There might be some good news. The number of reported cases probably just reflects a minority of all infections. By consequence the ratio of the number of deaths might be much lower. It also means that much more people are getting antibodies which will stop the epidemic much earlier.
Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense:
“George told lawmakers that students at public health schools are often taught to “multiply by seven or eight times what you’ve been told” to account for cases that they can’t see.
“For every one case you see, there are seven or eight out there that you don’t,” she said.”
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/china-numbers-novel-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Someone needs to go back to primary school maths classes. If there are 7 or 8 hidden cases for every visible one, then you need to multiply by 8 or 9.
That may seem trivial, but if there are 1 or 2 hidden cases for every visible one, you multiply by 2 or 3, not 1 or 2.
What if there are between 7.66+/- 2.5 and 8.45+/- 3.1 cases unseen for every one seen?
This may seem trivial, but…how does one multiply by an uncertain range of values?
Saying “7 or 8” implicitly says that one does not know how much one might need to adjust the known number.
The admonition is not a math instruction, but a reminder to be cautious when interpreting or assessing what is predictably incomplete or incorrect data.
Just sayin’.
“Monday” link [to first article 4 days ago] in first line broken. The word “scientific” is missing. Correct link is as follows.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/10/wuhan-coronavirus-a-wuwt-scientific-commentary/
Rud Istvan
Thanks, very informative.
Rgds
J.-P. D.
A Los Alamos research paper published yesterday, using known data and mathematical modelling, have estimated that Ro is between 4.7 and 6.6. Much higher than the 2.5 previous estimate. However, they pointed out that it may be 2.5 in China because of the extremely robust measures taken, because Ro is not an intrinsic property of a virus, but a composite of the virus and isolation measures taken together.
Assuming mortality statistics have not also been amended, THAT number goes down — the “good news”.
referring to “rate” or ratio.
Thank you WUWT!
Thanks for this. The NEJM case report was very interesting and informative. An example of the value of our ability today to disseminate information quickly and broadly.
“…family ski vacation 1/24-1/28 at Le Contamines-Montjoie…” seems a rather inauspicious name.
Wiki says, “The name of the village originates from ancient local dialect. The word “Contamines” once meant ploughable land on the squires estate.”
Another French “false friend.”
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus
Interestingly, bat was not on the menu at the Wuhan live market.
The Huanan Market is known as a seafood market but, media reports say these items are for sale:
Badgers, Bats, Beavers, Camel, Chickens Civets, Crab, Crocodiles, Dogs, Donkeys, Emmental cheese, Fish, Foxes, Giant salamanders, Hedgehog, Herbs, Koalas, Marmots, Ostrich, Otters, Peacocks, Pheasants, Pig, Porcupines, Rabbit organs, Rats, Sheep, Shrimp, Spices, Spotted deer, Striped bass, Turtles, Vegetables, Venomous snakes (including Bungarus multicinctus), Wolf puppies.
And yet a report was published (https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/135/htm) on January 20th, 2020 that no virus was found at the market.
Mmmm, bungarusssss multicinctussssssssss!
Apparently, the kangaroo is a little too hoppy for that market.
Hoppyness belongs in Beer
Don’t laugh. Corona.
https://twitter.com/PlungeMeClunge/status/1228025988015108097
Given the breadth of rare species sold in the Wuhan wet market, ruling out bats is not possible.
Not that coronavirus found in bats is identical to the current infectious coronavirus.
A 4% genetic difference is greater than the 2% difference between chimps and humans.
Pangolins are not listed as meat for sale in Wuhan wet market, but were recently photographed as being up for sale in the Wuhan wet market… Before the wet market was closed.
What would be interesting is an in depth analysis of the families, friends and acquaintances of the people who sold rare meats at the Wuhan wet market.
I believe China is a little too busy dealing with the quarantines and sterilizations though.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/california-lab-coronavirus-vaccine-3-hours
A company whose stock traded at $200 in 2001 and is now trading a dollar higher in a week at $4.30, says they discovered a vaccine for novel corona virus. Skepticism is in order.