Time Magazine: Climate Change Will Make Lethal Coronavirus Epidemics More Likely

Nobody cares about Climate Change when there is a Real Crisis. Google Trends Coronavirus vs Climate Change
Nobody cares about Climate Change in the middle of a Real Crisis. US Google Trends Coronavirus vs Climate Change

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Time Magazine, Climate Change makes future Coronavirus epidemics more likely – though Climate probably wasn’t responsible for the current crisis.

The Wuhan Coronavirus, Climate Change, and Future Epidemics


I have no evidence that climate change triggered this particular virus to jump from animals to humans at this particular time, or that a warmer planet has helped it spread. That said, it’s pretty clear that, broadly speaking, climate change is likely to lead to an uptick in future epidemics caused by viruses and other pathogens. Scientists have understood for decades that climate change would change the way diseases spread, but, as the planet warms, those hypotheses are being tested and scientists are learning in real time. There are many links between climate change and infectious diseases, but I’m going to focus on one particularly novel—and concerning—area of knowledge: how rising temperatures are making our natural immune systems less effective.

But, as pathogens are exposed to gradually warmer temperatures in the natural world, they become better equipped to survive the high temperature inside the human body. “Every time we have a very hot day, we have a selection event,” says Arturo Casadevall, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health. The pathogens that survive—and reproduce—are better adapted to higher temperatures, including those in our bodies. And, with that, one of our body’s primary defense mechanisms diminishes in effectiveness.

This is not a theoretical, far-off concern. Last year, Casadevall and colleagues documented in the journal mBio how Candida auris (a fungus that gets into the bloodstream, leading to a range of ailments) emerged simultaneously in patients in three different isolated places—southern Asia, Venezuela and South Africa—between 2012 and 2015. In our globalized world, diseases are often transported by human carriers who hop on planes, but in this case the scientists concluded that similar changing climatic conditions in each of these places likely drove the simultaneous development. It’s hard to say how widespread this effect could be, Casadevall says, but there’s no reason to think that it would be limited to fungi like Candida auris.

Read more: https://time.com/5779156/wuhan-coronavirus-climate-change/

The study quoted suggests that Candida Auris got a foothold in mammals because global warming conditioned a wild fungus to survive temperatures found inside the human body.

The problem with this theory is there are large regions of the world which remain near body temperature all the time, and which did so even in pre-industrial times. At most this region has expanded a hundred miles or so North and South due to global warming.

There were also significant periods of geological history, such as the Eemian Interglacial and the Holocene Optimum, when mammals including hominids experienced extended periods of far warmer temperatures than today.

A more likely explanation for the emergence of a new fungus pathogen is evolution, air travel, and the rise of HIV / AIDS, which provides a large pool of immuno-compromised humans upon whom new pathogens can hone their skills.

0 0 vote
Article Rating
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Curious George
February 6, 2020 2:14 pm

Justin Worland’s most popular stories:
The Wuhan Coronavirus, Climate Change, and Future Epidemics
The Finance Industry Groggily Awakens to Climate Change
How Davos Became a Climate Change Conference
The Global Mental Health Crisis Requires a Worldwide Investment, Advocates Say on TIME Davos Panel
The Australia’s Fires Are Terrifying. Will They Get World Leaders to Act on Climate Change?Reason Fossil Fuel Companies Are Finally Reckoning With Climate Change

Lord Myrt
Reply to  Curious George
February 6, 2020 5:13 pm

That certainly explains it. Justin gets clicks and pats on the head from his editors for every article that mentions climate change. Sheesh, the lede says there’s no evidence and then he goes off to assert it’s climate change. Pure bull pockey.

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  Lord Myrt
February 7, 2020 5:46 am

Time Magazine has not been relevant since the birth of the Internet.

Charles Higley
Reply to  Lord Myrt
February 7, 2020 6:53 am

Since we are not warming, how do they even begin to test this hypothesis?

Actually, more people means more interactions with all kinds of animals and their viruses. It also means more human interactions and then we have air travel as the icing on the cake for spreading disease around the world. Separate the effects of non-existent or even marginal warming from that!

Few people know that you can get malaria used to be quite prevalent in northern regions, even above the Arctic Circle, or anywhere there are mosquitoes and malaria.

Paraguay, in contrast, is poor and hot and is malaria free due to a good program of detection and curing. Global warming is not an issue, it’s what we do that controls disease, not the climate.

Reply to  Curious George
February 7, 2020 4:13 am


The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence. Note that every scary global warming and climate change prediction made by the climate alarmists has failed to materialize. Nobody should believe them – about anything.

MacRae’s Maxim:

D. Boss
February 7, 2020 4:47 am

Food for thought:

Seems Wuhan is location of a bioweapons lab….
Lancet reports 14 of of the original cases, did NOT visit the open air market, including patient 0.

Appears Chinese spies stole a sample from Canadian bio lab, then took it to Wuhan last year…

Some freaking nutbar or nutbar regime is eventually going to wreak havoc with bio weapons…

Climate is not involved…

Reply to  D. Boss
February 7, 2020 5:45 am

Yes, I’ve heard the virus has snipits of the HIV, which indicates it is biologically tooled to be deadly! And biologically tooled to be a weapon!

Reply to  RockyRoad
February 7, 2020 11:46 am

That was from a preliminary paper published in India that has since been debunked. Those very short snipits are found in all CoV’s and probably other viruses.

Reply to  D. Boss
February 7, 2020 9:30 am

Published on February 4, 2020

I am forwarding this link to several medical friends for their comments.

February 7, 2020 11:30 am


Police are investigating “possible policy breaches” at the National Microbiology Laboratory.
Jul 16, 2019

Canada’s national police force is investigating “possible policy breaches” after researchers were escorted from a lab at Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, CBC News reported earlier this week (July 14). Prominent virologist Xiangguo Qiu, her colleague and husband Keding Cheng, and an unknown number of her students from China were removed from the lab on July 5.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) said that it advised the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) about “possible policy breaches” in May, according to Reuters. The University of Manitoba, where Qiu held a non-salaried adjunct faculty position, cut ties with Qiu as a result of the RCMP investigation, according to CBC News.

Qiu had made regular trips to Beijing, and recent requests for trips were denied, according to the CBC. Sources also told the outlet that IT specialists entered her office after hours and replaced her computer several months ago.

Qiu was part of the team that developed ZMapp, an experimental treatment for Ebola used during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. Heinz Feldmann, the former head of the National Microbiology Lab’s special pathogens program where Qiu worked, tells the National Post, “I still hope that this is a big misunderstanding. She is a great researcher, she has been a great collaborator, she has been a great interacter in the field.” A conference bio says she joined Cancer Care Manitoba in 1997 and NML in 2003, according to the National Post.
The facility where she worked is the only biosafety level 4 lab in Canada, meaning that it is equipped to work with the most dangerous pathogens.
PHAC and the RCMP refused to comment on Qiu’s removal from NML, according to Reuters. “There is no employee from the NML under arrest or confined to their home,” Eric Morrisette, spokesman for the PHAC, tells Reuters. “We can assure Canadians that there is no risk to the public and that the work of the NML continues in support of the health and safety of all Canadians.”

February 7, 2020 12:21 pm

Then it is a pretty rubbish bioweapon that also kills the users.
That doesn’t preclude some jiggery-pokery but if it is an escape from a lab it is more likely a work in progress so that it behaves pretty much like the source material.
There are theories that the Spanish Flu of 2018 was also man made and a result of unwise vaccination procedures.
Either way the current isolation procedures are the best one can do without shutting down the entire global system which would potentially lead to greater chaos than the virus could cause.
There is a reasonable prospect of the more potent variants dying out through a more rapid kill rate leaving the less potent but more infectious strains to spread across the world. In the end it could become just another cold type virus coming and going with constant minor mutations which our immune systems adapt to at each periodic reinfection.
The next 7 to 14 days should reveal what we are dealing with because the quarantined subjects will have been thoroughly investigated by then.
So, please, no more panicky posts unless you really do have something that shows a more potent threat. Even if you do find something of that nature it would be best to keep quiet while the experts worldwide go at it.

February 7, 2020 11:41 am


At this point it is an interesting hypothesis. It is notable that the primary biological weapons lab in China is located at Wuhan. It is also notable that many of the earliest patients infected with the coronavirus were never close to the animal market.

February 7, 2020 12:25 pm

Published:January 24, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5

27 (66%) of 41 patients had a history of direct exposure to the Huanan seafood market.

February 7, 2020 12:39 pm

So the ones who didn’t get it from the market got it from those who did ?
Doesn’t prove anything either way.

February 8, 2020 3:23 am

Stephen wrote:
“So the ones who didn’t get it from the market got it from those who did ? Doesn’t prove anything either way. ”

That is one possibility – there are others. “Patient Zero” was reportedly not at the animal market.

“So, please, no more panicky posts…”

Seriously Stephen? The panic is already here – the avalanche of government-mandated quarantines has made travel to SE Asia high-risk – the risk of catching the corona virus is still low, but the risk of getting stuck in Asia by a quarantine is probably greater than 90%. That is why one week ago I cancelled my trip there, scheduled to leave Tuesday Feb 4.

The interview with Dr Francis Boyle, who drafted the USA’s 1989 Bioweapons Act, seems a bit over-the-top, but he is an intelligent professional who has devoted his life to this subject, so he knows a lot more than you or I do.

Examining the balance of probabilities based on the above limited evidence, I’d conclude that it is more probable that the corona virus originated from the Wuhan bioweapons lab, not from the animal market.

Stay tuned…

Reply to  Curious George
February 7, 2020 7:50 am


Why Raveendran Narayanan is different from 31,847 Global warming Scientists and Environmental Scientists?


“AIR CONDITIONING THE MOTHER EARTH” (Climate Change Third Group) Raveendran Narayanan USA

The data is with All Climate Research Groups, World Leaders, ipcc & NOBEL PEACE COMMITTEE with 47 pages Attachment mail since 2010. CLIMATE SCAM IS PRIVENTING my Innovation. 2018 Earth Science Conference Committee, Zurich, SWITZERLAND awarded a Certificate of Recognition during September 08, 2018

“Air Conditioning the MOTHER EARTH” is progressing (Climate Change Third Group) by Raveendran Narayanan USA

#unep #unfccc #noaa #epa #ipcc #environmentalprotection #airquality #parisagreement #cop25 #climatestrike #globalwarming #airpollution #renewableenergy #nasa #rewrittingearthscince #pulitzerprize #nobelpeaceprizecommitte #350org #usgcrp #notco2 #1000ppmco2noproblem #cop24 #waterprize #stopsearaisenow #globalcoastalstategies
#airconditioningthemotherearth #earthscieenceconferencecommitty @Raveendrannaray

Zig Zag Wanderer
February 6, 2020 2:15 pm

The problem with this theory is there are large regions of the world which remain near body temperature all the time, and which did so even in pre-industrial times. At most this region has expanded a hundred miles or so North and South due to global warming.

Yet the tropics aren’t supposed to be warming, and indeed are not. This means that this region has not changed.

In any case, proper healthcare and sanitation are the major factors in the spread of disease, not temperature.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
February 6, 2020 3:59 pm

True believers in fundamentalist religions see the hand of god in everything. True believers in CAGW see the hand of rising carbon dioxide in everything. Scientific skepticism be damned for them.

Reply to  kwinterkorn
February 6, 2020 4:26 pm

Secular religions (i.e. moral philosophy, behavioral protocols), yes. Mortal gods, certainly. They normalize a conflation of logical domains to progress minority capital and control.

Ron Long
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
February 6, 2020 5:09 pm

Another major factor appears to be eating raw bats.

Reply to  Ron Long
February 6, 2020 6:07 pm

Ha ha ha ha, yes funny about that.

Reply to  Ron Long
February 6, 2020 6:42 pm

Sushi will no longer exist because of climate change, but the Chinese will still have bat soup and Snow beer.

Reply to  Ron Long
February 8, 2020 3:30 am

“Another major factor appears to be eating raw bats.”

Tasty, but difficult to eat – the little guys keep flying off the plate.

February 6, 2020 2:16 pm

The Warmistas have made it abundantly clear to the general public that ‘Climate Change – GlobalWarming’ is responsible for absolutely everything that is bad in the World. Increased World greening, crop production and reduced winter deaths and other benefits are a mere bagatelle of side products.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
February 6, 2020 2:47 pm

Nicholas, I suspect climate change was responsible for the flat tire I got today, that pesky climate change.


Reply to  Bob Tisdale
February 6, 2020 5:54 pm

‘Climate Change’ spelled backwards is ANAL RETENTIVE.
If they can talk total nonsense, then so can I.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
February 8, 2020 4:08 am

I hope you didn’t pump it back up with pesky CO2 contaminated air Bob. If so, it is just going to go flat again. Rinse and Repeat.
Come to think of it. Fill all four with helium and you will have a flying car. Rig a sail up and you will have renewable energy to run it on. Shazam you could get massive government grants and get rich quick.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
February 6, 2020 3:47 pm

or just using global warming to deflect…..instead of calling a 3rd world s*** hole…a 3rd world s*** hole

This virus is nothing to take lightly….the vast majority of countries do not have the facilities, medical, etc to fight this
..even Venezuela is in the news about it…if it gets a foot hold there there’s not much anyone can do but let it run it’s course
Imagine India trying to quarantine

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Latitude
February 6, 2020 4:20 pm

I think India did manage a decent quarantine of bubonic plague a few years (20 or 25?} years ago. They brought in the army, surrounded a city, and threatened to shoot anyone trying to leave.

Must have learned something from the British…

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
February 8, 2020 3:57 am

Bubonic plague is still endemic to some areas – including a region in Kazakstan where I ran a project decades ago. We stockpiled suitable antibiotics at our camp, and donated them to the local hospital when they got old – they had no such antibiotics and were very happy to get them. So much for socialism!

Bubonic plague is typically spread by rats that carry a flea infected with the bacterium Yersinia pestis. The rats also die of the disease, and often go mad and come out of hiding and do a hideous dance before falling dead. There reportedly was an old saying at the time of the Great Plague: “Beware the dancing rats!”

As an aside, my home province Alberta is supposed to be the only rat-free region on the planet. We are assured by our government that this is true, and yet there are worrying signs of change. Albertans elected a socialist NDP government, which was recently voted out of office. Also, the federal Trudeau Liberal-Marxists got elected with a minority and insist on forcing their destructive climate change fraud upon us, ruining our once-strong economy. We need to shore up our borders –Alberta is no longer rat-free.

February 11, 2020 1:30 pm

rat•i•fy “răt′ə-fī”
transitive verb
– To approve and give formal sanction to; confirm.
– To confirm; establish; settle conclusively or authoritatively.
– To validate by some formal act of approval; accept and sanction.
– To vote Liberal, NDP or Green in Alberta.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
February 6, 2020 5:01 pm

It used to be capitalism that caused everything bad, now it’s CO2.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  MarkW
February 6, 2020 6:24 pm


CO2 is caused by capitalism, apparently.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
February 7, 2020 3:54 am

exactly, and that’s the link. The people who think capitalism causes every problem have been searching around for a reason to dismantle capitalism since the USSR fell.

February 6, 2020 2:22 pm

I believe that space radiation is more likely to affect epidemics.

February 6, 2020 2:33 pm

Few people have reliable 2020 vision. And Justin Worland clearly isn’t on e of them.

Justin Burch
February 6, 2020 2:36 pm

No surprise. China has not been nice about lowering their carbon emissions. Therefore according to the global alarmists loons they are getting what they deserve. Also if the virus spreads and kills a bunch of people due to some lack of preparedness by governments then they can claim it not their fault for lack of preparations but rather it is climate change.

February 6, 2020 2:45 pm

There’s no need to single out HIV and AIDS.

Modern medicine means that HIV / AIDS sufferers are not the only people who have impaired immunity. There are plenty of other large groups – cancer patients, elderly people etc etc.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 6, 2020 3:43 pm

No Climate Change did it … How dare you

Reply to  Eric Worrall
February 6, 2020 4:12 pm

No doubt untreated HIV patients are at increased risk for many diseases. In most countries in the world, including China, now HIV patients are almost all receiving effective anti-HIV medicine that works quite well, returning their immune systems to near normal. This is one of the great scientific/technical marvels of recent history. I would not pin this epidemic on HIV patients….any more than on climate change.

Such epidemics have occurred sporadically throughout history. They are worsened by the explosion in international travel. But they are lessened by the great alleviation of poverty that modern life and free markets have brought, especially in recent decades, including, again, in China. Starving people used to be by far the greatest locus of weakened immune systems.

Within a few months, maybe sooner, there will be effective diagnostic tests (RDTs) to identify quickly, before symptoms even, who is infected…and in the same time frame there will be vaccines. Additionally there are anti-viral agents that have worked some in other coronaviruses and may help in the Wuhan virus.

Reply to  kwinterkorn
February 7, 2020 3:47 am

the ‘spurts are now saying they expect the incidences will drop as soon as the weather warms up,
ie like the usual cold.flu seasoon tapers off.
dunno, cos by then other he,ispheres winter is happening
I gather usa now has our utterly crappy VicB strain flubug killing people,
pity they didnt manage to sort the vax out after damn new 12mths of people with it downunder
and to get round to naming the A strain that was also causing grief and not in the vax either.
ps it was the pnumonia with/following the flu that was killing most
It took me 2 rounds of antibiotics to throw it off.
the fluvax is pretty useless, the pnumonia vax is prob worth considering before you get crook
the flu is a savage one with neuralgia that will have you crying, and getting a fever going to break it was not so easy(for me anyway)aspirin was better than other meds for the aches btw

Reply to  kwinterkorn
February 7, 2020 11:58 am

The best estimates for a vaccine to be developed is in a year or more.
Testing is via antibody titers which go up as the infection progresses. The antibody titers may not be high enough to test for very early in an infection.
It was a combination of some new antivirals used to treat HIV patients that appears to be moderately successful. This was why the rumors got started in conjunction with the now debunked paper out of India that this was a bio-weapon.

Reply to  AndyL
February 6, 2020 11:15 pm

For whatever it’s worth, authorities seem to be implementing control measures in regard to coronavirus that were not implemented in regard to AIDS.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Ralph Dave Westfall
February 7, 2020 8:40 pm

Back when AIDS first emerged and was gradually recognized for what it was, it had already been spreading worldwide for many years, decades in fact.
It takes years, often many years, between infection and the total collapse of the immune system in the case of that disease.
Also, back then, there was no means to quickly identify the cause of a new mysterious illness, particularly if it was caused by a virus.
It was only brought to the attention of medical authorities because a certain group of doctors in a few cities had many patients who were gay, and they alertly noticed a cluster of these very unusual illnesses in gay men in a few cities on the East and West Coast.
That was in 1981, and for a long time no one had any idea what was causing it, or why some people seemed to be getting these unusual diseases and symptoms and then dying.

Once the alert was raised, other doctors realized that other distinct groups of people were getting these same type of rare illnesses, but almost no one not in one of these certain groups was getting it…and that it was in a few big cities but almost no where else.

These groups were gay men, intravenous drug users, people with hemophilia, and Haitians.

Much of what is done quickly and easily now was flat out impossible then.

You cannot just look at some blood under a microscope and determine if there was anything not supposed to be there.
There was no such thing as monoclonal antibodies, and the polymerase chain reaction had not been discovered/invented yet, although the sequence of advances that led to them were already in progress.
Without PCR for example, identification of novel viruses is extremely problematic.
Take Hepatitis C.
For many decades it was known there were two types of Hepatitis, A and B, for which the causative
agent was known to be a virus, but that most people with hepatitis did not have either of these. This disease was called Non A Non B Hepatitis until 1988 (I think it was), when a virus was isolated and shown to be causing this disease, and a test could then be developed to diagnose infection with what was at that time named HCV, Hepatitis C Virus.

In any case, by the time AIDS was determined to be caused by a virus which attacked the immune system, and the explanation for the unusual groupings of patients was then worked out, the disease was endemic in the US and was then found to be even more widespread in other places, notably Africa. Homosexual men spread the disease to other man through unprotected sex, and it was spread into the intravenous drug abuse subculture by reusing and sharing syringes. Hemophiliacs got the disease from the pool of donated blood, as at that time donated blood was “pooled” in order to efficiently separate out various components, such as clotting factor used by hemophilia patients, before being separated back into units of various fractions such as packed cells, plasma, etc. Because of pooling, one infected blood donor could pass the infection along to everyone who received any product from that entire pool of blood, as well as from cross contamination to other pools through improperly sanitized equipment used in the processes involved in performing these tasks.
Haitians, it turned out, were particularly averse to being candid with medical researchers trying to find out what risk factors they may have…such as men having sex with men or using intravenous drugs.
It is almost certainly true that HIV (originally called HTLV III IIRC, for Human T Cell Lymphotropic Virus, type III) had been circulating and spreading in the US since the 1960s, no one had an inkling there was any such thing until 1982, and it took years after that to learn much about what was causing it and how it was spreading.
The amazing thing to me is that less than 40 years later, before hardly anyone had even died yet, the cause of what was outwardly a case of flu or pneumonia was found to be caused by a novel virus, and within weeks a test for the virus was available all around the world.

* Such as:
-Kaposi’s sarcoma, a rare form of skin cancer, recognized previously (mostly) as occurring only in specific groups of people such as elderly men that were mostly from a certain ethnic group. It is now know to be caused by a common member of the herpesvirus group, Human herpesvirus 8.

-Pneumocystis pneumonia, caused by a yeast that is normally harmless but was known to cause opportunistic infections in rare circumstances where normal immune function does not occur.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 7, 2020 8:44 pm

Oops, I left out this paragraph:

It was being observed that some people in a few distinct demographics were getting a weird illness characterized by an acquired susceptibility to diseases that were very rare or caused by what are ubiquitous but typically innocuous microorganisms*, and what was an initially perplexing assortment of other symptoms

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 7, 2020 8:53 pm

Before anyone knew what was causing it, the new illness was given the name Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome…AIDS.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 7, 2020 10:14 pm

One rarely hears about the disease called hemophilia anymore, at least not in the US, although when I was younger it was a disease that got a lot of mentions and attention in the press and medical and scientific literature.
The reason is that the recessive gene that causes hemophilia was very effectively removed from the gene pool by the HIV virus.
Because in the US, a treatment that was highly effective at letting these people have a mostly normal life had become available: Clotting factor was removed from donated blood, and given as an injection to people who had this genetic disease that prevents a person from making their own clotting factor. It had to be given often. And the way it was available and affordable was because it could be done to large batches of blood in a relatively efficient way.
Someone might have well imagined that when a unit of blood was donated, it was stored until it was needed by someone, and that unit was then transfused into the patient in need.
But that method did not allow for things like clotting factor, immunoglobulins, and other substances that are in blood in small amounts, to be removed in a cost effective manner.
Or at least so it was deemed at the time.
It never occurred to the people overseeing this process that there were diseases lurking in certain individuals, and that by taking a large number of units of blood, each from a different person, and dumping it into a vat so various things could be cheaply separated out, that one person who was harboring a viral illness could thereby spread it to a large number of people…thousands and thousands of people…including nearly every single person with the gene for hemophilia in the USA.
And since the progression of a viral illness, or indeed many types of infectious organism, is very often directly related to the number of particles of the organism a person is exposed to, particularly in the case of the initial dose, someone getting a dose of a concentrated fraction of a centrifuged blood product, and getting it over and over again on a regular basis, the people who were infected by HIV in this way had an unusually rapid and severe disease progression. When someone gets only a few virions of a virus into their system, their innate immune system will be able to eliminate them all before they can reproduce in sufficient numbers to overwhelm the innate immunity. Since acquired immunity will occur and become stronger in the days and especially weeks after an initial exposure, getting only a small dosage of the infective agent can lead to a situation where a person does not even get sick, or if they do it will be a much more mild and short lived case than someone who gets a large infective dose.
The threshold for causing infection and illness is called the minimum infective dose.
This is why washing hands and other sorts of attention to hygiene can be so effective at preventing illness: If someone has the flu and you are in the same room or building for even a little while, or if you have incidental contact with a sick person…it is a virtual mathematical certainty that some particles of the disease causing organism will enter your body. But if you can keep the number of these particle to a minimum, you may get just enough to allow your body to make some antibodies before you get the next batch into your system…at which point it will strengthen your immune response still further.
This strengthening of immune response by repeated exposure when a person already has some immunity also explains another phenomenon we have seen in recent years: Back when everyone got chicken pox and measles, after one got the infection for the first time and eventually overcame it via an acquired immune response (i.e. production of protective antibodies), we would also typically be re-exposed from time to time when the disease went around again and someone you were in contact with had it. So the assumption everyone made at the time was that once someone got one of these diseases, they could not get it again, was false, as is the notion that a vaccine produces lifelong immunity as a matter of fact.
Immunity to re-infection was abetted by frequent, or at least occasional, re-exposure, giving the immune response an occasional kick or boost.
Also, at the time someone got chicken pox or measles, it is possible, perhaps likely, that they had a sub-infective dose at some point prior to getting an infective dose, leading to a less severe case of the illnesses due to having at least some antibodies to it.
And in fact it is well known that one dose of a vaccine is very often not able to provide complete immunity, which is why several doses of some vaccines are requires to provide and effective antibody titer to build up in the blood stream, lymph system, and tissues.
And most people, if they think about it, know this very well in the case of, for example, tetanus vaccine or immune booster shot (an injection of immunoglobulin antibodies). If you get a deep puncture wound and have not had a tetanus shot in many years…most people know they best get to the emergency room and get a shot of it right away, or risk a (not so very) nice little case of lockjaw from the ubiquitous soil borne organism that causes it.

embutler butler
February 6, 2020 2:46 pm

the new virus in china is thriving in winter conditions , much like the flu…
the last hot air bug was called polio..

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  embutler butler
February 6, 2020 5:02 pm

Yes, it is common knowledge that viral diseases like the flu, and bacterial diseases like pneumonia, are most common during the Winter. I think that the most common malady people suffer in the Summer is sunburn. 🙂

Mike Mitchell
February 6, 2020 2:52 pm

Global warming causes people to not believe in CAGW.

February 6, 2020 2:58 pm

Nothing to do with “global warming”. Everything to do with human stupidity.


I don’t know if Dr Boyle is correct but he was correct about stuff in the past.

February 6, 2020 2:59 pm

Coronoviruses are winter viruses. Any warming will slow their growth. They do not spread as well in warm, humid climates.


Reply to  Stevek
February 7, 2020 12:02 pm

Outside weather doesn’t play much of a role in human viruses. During the infection the virus hijacks your genetic system to reproduce themselves.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  chemman
February 8, 2020 5:20 pm

“Outside weather doesn’t play much of a role in human viruses.”

This is not correct, as a general statement.
There is far more going on than the mechanism by which a virus makes new copies of itself.
The infection has to spread.
The infection is being fought by the host.
Various factors effect how easily and quickly the virus can cause new copies of itself to be made.

A look a the stats on flu epidemics shows right away that there is a strong seasonal component.

Several reasons exist for this particular fact and this particular set of diseeases , among which are the amount of time people spend in confined spaces with other people, how humidity (or lack thereof) affects how the virus spreads via droplets and aerosols, as well as the effect of humidity (or lack thereof) on the membranes of the respiratory tract, and how long virions can survive on surfaces outside of a host, etc.

Other factors likely relate to the general state of health of people in different places and times of years, how nutrition can vary as the seasons change and the effect that can have on immune system function, etc.

And during times of year and in places that the weather is very cold, many people may have a core temperature that is lower than at times of year and in places that it is very hot outside (or inside), and this can certainly affect exactly how well the virus is able to reproduce, etc.

Fever is a response to certain infections for a very good reason. Although dangerous to the host, elevated temperature can remove the pathogen from the temperature range in which it survives and reproduces most effectively and efficiently.

So the weather and climate conditions can affect viruses and disease outbreaks in numerous ways.

February 6, 2020 3:05 pm

There had to be somebody who would gave the Corona gig a CC angle, as many posters here predicted.

Time Magazine, was that not the organ the printed Hillary’s mug on the cover with the caption Madam President back in 2016 ?

Joel Snider
February 6, 2020 3:07 pm

Hey, look! Time Magazine is trying to exploit the latest crisis to push their messaging.

Someone should do a study comparing the speed of light to the speed of progressive exploitation.

John Robertson
February 6, 2020 3:09 pm

Time magazine is still around?

Gary Pearse
February 6, 2020 3:11 pm

My doctor tells me that the reason China is the incubator of so many cross-over infections from animals is that they live too close to their animals raising them for food product. They include rats, snakes, birds, reptiles, dogs, cats, wildlife … Apparently Vietnam passed laws that you had to have separate quarters for your animals because of this risk.

Political Correctness and an admiration of China by the neo-left means studies done by Western sycophants will be worthless.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 6, 2020 4:58 pm

I had a similar conversation with a specialist physician who is an infectious diseases consultant. He said this virus just like swine flu which originated in Mexico and bird flu which came out of S.E. Asia is the result of poor animal husbandry practices. We keep seeing activism working to compromise our farming operations in Australia, the U.K., Canada and the USA but never in places like China, Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh and so on. Strangely ironic that these terrible diseases aren’t coming from the places where the activists are focussed on.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 6, 2020 5:32 pm

Gary– this is why when I see reports like this my spidey senses tingle. When trying to ascertain something at a global level– like 3 people getting the same fungal infection in different places in the world– there are a multitude of factors to assess. That’s like finding a wrecked vehicle with a dead man inside who smells of alcohol, is holding alcohol, has a case of beer on the passenger seat, has a blood alcohol limit way over the legal limit but blaming the accident entirely on a light evening rain.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 6, 2020 5:41 pm

..eat more bat soup

Reply to  Latitude
February 7, 2020 7:48 am

How does Robin feel about that?

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 6, 2020 6:55 pm

The classical Chinese character for family is a house with a pig inside.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 7, 2020 3:57 am

But it’s also a numbers game – the most likely place for a new virus to emerge is the place with the most people.

M__ S__
February 6, 2020 3:14 pm

Yes, yes—it’s all (no doubt) caused by a witch in league with the devil.

Climate change is the new form of Flagellantism—needed to justify the confiscation of power and wealth.

February 6, 2020 3:18 pm

Climate change does EVERYTHING. Next irrelevant posting, please.

February 6, 2020 3:22 pm

Do I wonder, no, but, but, yes, I wonder: at the time passed that these “news” found the way into the media

Ed Zuiderwijk
February 6, 2020 3:22 pm

The learned professor Casadevall is talking through his hat.

February 6, 2020 3:34 pm

Cold viruses are around us all the time. Why are we feeling symptoms in winter? Some medical journals (mostly outside US) are honest enough to admit vitamin D plays an important role in fighting off viral infections and minimizing tissue damage. Vit D is reported to be at least as effective as a flu shot. However, you have to take enough units to make a difference.

The body naturally produces vitamin D efficiently from exposure to sunlight. Natural selection seems to reflect the importance of vitamin D production since skin is lighter as populations reside in more polar latitudes. Everyone understands immediately the critical role of melanin to reduce the incidence of skin cancer in populations exposed to more sunlight, especially near the equator. Skin lightness may not be accidental, but selected at higher latitudes.

How can vitamin D have a role in a process of natural selection? A reaction to viral infection that typically leads to death is the “cytokine storm”. This reaction was the killer in the Spanish Flu pandemic after World War I. In deep lung infections, tissue damage can produce large amounts of interferons and other cytokines. Vitamin D moderates the production of interferons and reduces the risk of a cytokine storm event. It is essential to proper immune response function.

The lethality of the Wuhan coronavirus could be partly due to the epidemic occurring in winter after months of darkness. Even if there is no vaccine for Wuhan corona virus, you may be protected by ensuring you have enough vitamin D in your system. RDA values are typically too low. You won’t need to supplement vitamin D in summer / fall unless you work all day in a dim room (yeah, like you programmers who prefer the dark).

Reply to  Hoser
February 7, 2020 3:51 am

well locking everyone inside for a month wont be improving matters sun through a window is nearly useless really.
why so many old folks are depressed and ill in what should be top care nurisng homes etc recycled air and no sunshine

Craig from Oz
February 6, 2020 3:43 pm

Who cares what Justin claims.

Until I have heard it from Greta’s father then I refuse to believe anything Time says.


February 6, 2020 3:51 pm

I had no idea that insecure class 4 virology labs were caused by global warming

George Daddis
February 6, 2020 3:52 pm

OK, I’ll be the one to show my scientific ignorance by asking the obvious question:
If this were a function of temperature, why are there not more epidemics in Florida than in Maine?

If a minor change in a very narrow band of temperature makes it more hospitable for some pathogens, are there any studies to determine if some find that same increase in-hospitable?

(Actually just askin’ for a friend.)

February 6, 2020 3:56 pm

Eric ==> The Climate connection is bogus — Candida auris is a disease found ONLY in healthcare facilities and it is nearly certain that it has been passed from hospital to hospital by traveling healthcare professionals and transfer of equipment.

Healthcare facilities in several countries have reported that a type of yeast called Candida auris has been causing severe illness in hospitalized patients.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
February 6, 2020 8:01 pm

Yes, it really ticks me off to see hospital workers lining up in Starbucks wearing their hospital scrubs! To my mind the scrubs should only be worn in the hospitals.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
February 7, 2020 4:00 am

Same with MRSA – the greatest amount of natural selection of diseases occurs in hospitals.

David S
February 6, 2020 4:01 pm

He said: “I have no evidence that climate change triggered this particular virus to jump from animals to humans at this particular time, or that a warmer planet has helped it spread. ” Then he goes on to say that warmer weather will cause more disease. So even though he has no proof whatsoever he goes on to claim that it does.

Does that explain why flu season is in the winter?

February 6, 2020 4:06 pm

“Climate Change makes future Coronavirus epidemics more likely”
I guess they couldn’t find a way to attribute wuhan to agw so they did the best that they could. This obsession with knee jerk attribution alone disqualifies agw climate change as a science. In this bizarre discipline it is a given that all bad things are agw impacts and that all agw impacts are bad and there are no good impacts of agw. They used to taunt deniers about their claim to agw causing a greening of the earth until they found a way to blame the australian bushfires on agw greening so now greening is indeed an agw impact but that too is a horror as explained here where it is shown that wildfire intensity and destruction has increased due to agw greening. In the science of climate science Agw is bad by definition.


High Treason
February 6, 2020 4:21 pm

The Emperor’s New Clothes describes the desperate and insane propaganda that stems from would-be totalitarian regimes. They use fear and intimidation to deceive people in to swallowing the bovine excrement like they were dung beetles. Only a dung beetle should be swallowing every bit of bovine excrement. Most adult dung beetles don’t actually swallow and digest the dung-they process it to feed their young the BS.
How much BS can people swallow?

February 6, 2020 4:29 pm

” At most this region has expanded a hundred miles or so North and South due to global warming.” coupled with the fact that future warming is only going to make a change of another hundred miles sums up reality.

Steve Z
February 6, 2020 4:33 pm

Even if a warming climate may help the spread of some viruses, it would hinder the spread of other viruses. People are always encouraged to receive influenza vaccines in autumn, at the start of the cold season in the United States, when influenza tends to spread. If “global warming” led to warmer winters, wouldn’t that hinder the spread of influenza?

There are many problems with blaming global warming on the spread of viruses or bacteria. Most mammals and birds have body temperatures similar to that of human beings–wouldn’t such viruses also affect non-human mammals and birds over reptiles, fish, and other cold-blooded animals?

Unlike most mammals, human beings do not have fur to protect themselves against cold weather, and must wear clothing and live in heated dwellings to survive winters in temperate areas. Viruses can be dormant in cold weather, but can also live in heated dwellings during the winter. Viruses can also replicate in warm weather, such as spring and summer in temperate areas, which can last six months or more. A slight increase in temperature may lengthen the warm period slightly, but this should not affect the spread of viruses very much.

The Corona virus was first discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Wuhan, China is about 30 degrees North latitude, and can experience freezing weather in December through February, and there are many lakes in the city, where mosquitos can breed, and the city has a very humid climate in summer. If “global warming” contributes to the spread of viruses, why did the Corona virus appear in winter?

Reply to  Steve Z
February 6, 2020 7:09 pm

I haven’t been to Wuhan in 3 years but I was there in every season at one time or another. It’s very humid most of the time and summers are unpleasant with the heat and humidity. Winter is made cooler because of the humidity also. I saw lots of bugs but don’t recall mosquitoes being a problem; I think they are widely sprayed for, probably with DDT.

In summer at night I marveled at all of the bats flying about, big ones. In my childhood, I used to tie a string to something heavy like a nut and sling them up in the air, whereupon the bats would chase them. I didn’t get around to doing that in China, but I want to.

Chris Hanley
February 6, 2020 4:40 pm

“A new study suggests that long periods of cold, dry weather helped drive epidemics in ancient and pre-modern China “:
The Black Death pandemic of the 14th century correlated with a marked decrease in the NH temperature, or at least that was the prevailing view before Mr Mann got to work.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
February 7, 2020 3:48 am

Perhaps a spurious correlation though. The Black Death came to Europe as a consequence of ships and travelers going eastwards.

February 6, 2020 4:59 pm

“how rising temperatures are making our natural immune systems less effective”

If this were true, people would be dropping dead in the tropics.

February 6, 2020 5:12 pm

Thanks for the likely science

February 6, 2020 5:23 pm

Most hanging out on the site would know about the increase in Europe’s population during the Medieval Optimum. As it used to be called.
More consistently good harvests with the long warming trend was very good for people in England and Europe.
Then in the early 1300s it abruptly changed to cold and rain. Particularly in 1315 to 1317.
That forced a 10 percent die off.
And later conditions got worse.
A recently published book is worth reading.
“The Time Traveller’s Guide To Medieval England”–by Ian Mortimer.
The idea that warming will make contagious diseases worse seems contrary to history.

February 6, 2020 5:36 pm

This is NOT natural
“‘The only problem with this hockey stick representation, however, is that it will not convince anyone of those who really need to be convinced.”
“The message isn’t “It’s real,” the message is “Be afraid. Be very afraid.”

A problem with combined maps like these is that you risk conflating two different sets of statistics and time periods and measuring devices.
Proxy records are not actual temperatures, rather they are averages of temperatures over usually year [200 years ago] to decadal or longer [2000 years ago] time frames rather than daily or hourly frames as used in producing the spike.
A spike in temperatures such as in the current short series could occur and hardly be recognised in the past as it would be averaged out of existence as merely a slightly higher part of the graph.

I doubt this argument will have any weight if the purpose is alarming people but it should have some weight scientifically.

Corona virus deaths lag behind the twin factors of contact causing incubation and demonstration of actual disease.
Some alarmists claim a doubling of the disease every 5 days.
Deaths do not represent the proportion of the actual death rate. One would have to compare the number of infections two or three doublings back to get the real death rate per infection.
It looks and sounds nasty.
Blood from survivors might provide Immunoglobulin to save some current victims.

February 6, 2020 5:42 pm

An example of how stupid science/technology writers for MSM was put out today.

So you can check the numbers but the increase in reported infection rate has been going at around a constant 20-25% per day.

So what would any good MSM writer do … project that rate forward and work out how many days until the entire world population is infected at that compound rate 🙂

February 6, 2020 5:47 pm

And now we know why Pelosi, Schiff, Nadler and Schumer have become totally nuts…it was obvious all along!

February 6, 2020 7:16 pm

After reading the TIME linked mBio report it seems to me there is another explanation for C.auris pathogenesis that the weather. Authors say before 1996 this fungus was not known to be in humans & it got it’s name from being 1st found in human ears.

The authors mention “… prior to … human pathogen … [it] was an environmental fungus. And humanly found “… mostly in … debilitated …[&] intensive care.

I posit the appearance is linked to medical apparatus’ biofilms in situations with less rigorous biofilm control; thus Venezuela, SouthAfrica & South Asia are where arises, rather than (say) Florida. In support of my contention is author’s statement that “… short transition period … inhabited human surfaces… before being associated with disease ….”

As for the progression of C.aureus now exhibiting a diseased nature, author’s state it’s virulence seems to come from “… plasmid DNA transfer….” Biofilms are capable of thriving on hospital/medical surfaces & interior channels; microbes are notoriously capable of horizontal gene transfer & this occurs in biofilms.

Authors explain how C. auris expresses a lot of heat shock protein (HSP 90) making it cope with human temperature – which, due to how biofilm consortia are adaptive among themselves (ex: horizontal gene transfer) need not come about from changes in the outdoor climate. Current research claims the average human body temperature has gone down from the 1890s to the 1990s in women by about 0.58*F; while men’s average body temperature from the early 1800s (men’s military records extend timeline farther back) to the 1990s has reportedly gone down about 1.06*F . So C.auris would now seem to have human cooling to take advantage of (ex: data from 25,000 British patients’ body temperature shows the average body temperature is now 97.9*F, & thus no longer 98.6*F/37*C.)

Joel O'Bryan
February 6, 2020 7:24 pm

JUSTIN WORLAND and his belief that warming palnet makes human-to-human transmission viral outbreaks more likely is just the product of the fevered imagination of socialist journalists. It is wanting something to be true to satisfy their bias.

February 6, 2020 9:27 pm

I think this is rather obvious, as all the resources the Climate Change Money Grabbing Meme is consuming will naturally mean fewer resources to be spent on doing something useful, like fighting a viral outbreak!

February 6, 2020 10:08 pm

Oh I just thought of it.
It was quite a while ago that it was determined that when your nose was cold you were susceptible to, well. catching a “cold”.
The writer’s thesis suggests something different.
When temperatures are elevated you could catch a “warm”.
I can see mothers warning their children about ” catching your death if warm”.

February 7, 2020 3:52 am

This is pure nonsense. The hottest days are fractions of a degree hotter than in the 1930s or other years. And those temperatures last for a very brief period of time – sometimes only minutes. And usually only in one small area.

Once again this displays a total lack of understanding of what Climate Science is saying is happening.

February 7, 2020 7:50 am

The climate Malthusians have a double win going on–50,000 flight cancellations and more deaths from a virus.

Greta would be proud.

February 7, 2020 8:08 am

Strange. One of the leading US geologists said Greta should go back to school instead of telling lies. According to him, warming periods were times of high civilizations and cooling periods were times of hunger and diseases.
So, shouldn’t we be happy if temperatures rise?

February 7, 2020 9:29 am

Viruses don’t live long enough to reproduce in open air so they cannot adapt to the temperature of open air.
Instead they are adapted to the body temperature of the host organism.
That organism will find it easier to raise its temperature via a fever if the open air is warmer.
So, this article is untrue. Warmer open air makes it easier for the host to defeat the virus.

February 7, 2020 9:34 am

Published on February 4, 2020

I am forwarding this link to several medical doctors for their comments.

February 7, 2020 9:58 am


Candida auris. Genus name. Species name.

Genus name is always capitalized. Species name is never capitalized. Both are either underlined (old typewriter days) or italicized. Always. This is standard scientific nomenclature. Plants, animals, anything with a Genus and species.

This software for replying prevents me from doing so, I expect you’re working on better so is possible for you. Always strive to get the small details correct.

February 7, 2020 10:38 am

You mean Time magazine still exists. Who in their right mind would subscribe?

February 7, 2020 2:17 pm

Batman has to be the primary suspect. Need to quarantine him.

Looks to me that this is just a bad cold virus. Wuhan has a higher fatality rate than cases outside Hubei province. Something makes them more susceptible. Pollution, 5G, a vaccine experiment gone wrong? Who knows. Like SARS this also attacks Asians and older people more seriously, everyone else gets off with mostly mild symptoms. The biggest problem seems government overreaction, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc.

China provides much of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) needed for drug and vaccines manufacture. Supply disruptions will lead to drug shortages. The US makes no antibiotics domestically for example and rely on countries like India which gets much of its API’s from China. So stock up.

Reply to  Pft
February 7, 2020 5:06 pm

China is known as a rogue state from the POV of pharma safety.

The world relies on China for pharma sourcing.

The world is batsh*t crazy. Moon landing refuters are sane in comparison.

Andy Pattullo
February 8, 2020 6:18 am

History and even recent experience show us the theory that global warming will cause increasing novel epidemics is unfounded. Throughout the history of human society the worst epidemics occurred during the coldest periods. The likely link is poor agricultural production, poor nutrition with reduced immunity and increased human congestion as people huddle together to battle cold. Claims that malaria would increase with warming are countered by the fact malaria incidence is falling during the supposed warming (largely because countries most at risk readopted DDT for mosquito control). Similarly claims that Lyme disease was increasing (it is) due to warming are countered but the temperature record where Lyme is most prevalent show a 30 year cooling trend. Lyme is increasing because its home range was initially logged and farmed and the deer population (intermediate host of Lyme disease) nearly wiped out by hunting in the early 20th century, but in recent decades that land has been ceded back to forrest and the deer population has exploded. Along with that is the increasing tendency for people to seek recreation in the very environment where Lyme is present.

The progressive development and urbanization of human society is a far more important determinant of human infectious disease outbreaks. On the one hand the increasing prevalence of reliable sanitation, safe potable water and safer methods of industrial food production work along with immunization programs to reduce the most frequent and deadly diseases down to bare shadows of their former selves. But the high densities and mobility of human populations and those same large scale systems of industrial food production and distribution mean that when novel infectious agents emerge their ability to spread widely through the human population is greatly enhanced.

The more decision-makers focus on the mythical malevolence of global warming and neglect the true determinants of wellbeing in human society and the environment the more unnecessary suffering and environmental degradation we will experience that could otherwise be avoided by more sober analysis and adherence to the scientific method.

Johann Wundersamer
February 20, 2020 4:58 am

“This is not a theoretical, far-off concern. Last year, Casadevall and colleagues documented in the journal mBio how Candida auris (a fungus that gets into the bloodstream, leading to a range of ailments) emerged simultaneously in patients in three different isolated places—southern Asia, Venezuela and South Africa—between 2012 and 2015.”


Interestingly, there’s a strong correlation in —southern Asia, Venezuela and South Africa— too:


Something JUSTIN WORLAND 10:52 AM EST ought to consider.

%d bloggers like this: