By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 January 2020
Summary: The hysterics have already begun to spread misinformation about the latest epidemic. The actual story is that so far we know little about it. The amazing news is the rapid and powerful response of our public health systems. This is evidence that we have built a better world, but it gets less attention than the number of characters allowed in a tweet. I will be posting updates in the comments.
You can read a dozen articles in the major news media and learn less than from reading the CDIC’s summary page about the latest epidemic. For busy people, here is an excerpt with the high points.
About the disease.
“CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (termed “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported hundreds of infections with 2019-nCoV in China, including outside of Hubei Province. Infections with 2019-nCoV also are being reported in a growing number of countries internationally, including the United States, where the first 2019-nCoV infection was detected in a traveler returning from Wuhan on January 21, 2020. …
“Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, some causing illness in people and others that circulate among animals, including camels, cats and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can evolve and infect people and then spread between people such as has been seen with MERS and SARS. …Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.”
Risk Assessment.
“Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.”
Timeline of an epidemic
In the 21st century, epidemics are a race between the disease’s ability to spread and scientists’ efforts to identify and combat it. Modern transportation allows diseases to quickly spread globally. But modern communications and effective government agencies can react even faster, once alerted. This radically changes the nature of epidemics. This fantastic speed plus modern tech makes our response far more effective than in the early 1950s polio epidemic – and beyond anything imaginable during the 1918 influenza pandemic.
See the Wikipedia Timeline page for updates.
8 December 2019 – First case detected, although doctors did not know what it was.
30 December – An “urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause” was issued by the Medical Administration and Medical Administration of Wuhan Municipal Health Committee. Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan tighten their inbound screening.
2 January – The WHO activated its incident management system at all three levels: national, regional, and headquarters.
3 January – Thailand and Singapore began screening inbound passengers.
5 January – Researchers ruled out seasonal flu, SARS, MERS, and bird flu as the cause. The number of suspected cases reached 59 with seven in a critical condition. All were quarantined and 163 contacts commenced monitoring. As yet, there were no reported cases of human-to-human transmission or presentations in healthcare workers.
6 January – The US CDC issued a travel watch at Level 1 (“Practice usual precautions”) for China.
7 January – CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management group.
8 January – The CDC began alerting clinicians to watch for patients with respiratory symptoms and a history of travel to Wuhan.
9 January – Chinese investigators isolated a novel coronavirus from an infected patient. The first death occurred, a 61-year-old man with severe preexisting health problems.
10 January – Four groups of Chinese researchers post genetic sequences of the virus.
13 January – First reported case outside China, a 61 year-old-woman who arrived in Bangkok on January 8.
14 January – First reported case of probable human-to-human transmission of the virus.
15 January – Second death: a 69-year-old man in China.
16 January – Second case outside China: 30-year-old male Chinese national in Japan.
17 January – The CDC issued an updated interim Health Alert Notice (HAN) Advisory to inform state and local health departments and health care providers about this outbreak. It began screening of passengers on flights from Wuhan to five major US airports.
19 January – First two confirmed cases in China outside Wuhan: one in Guangdong province and two in Beijing. Third fatality. The number of laboratory-confirmed cases in China is 201.
20 January – First confirmed cases in South Korea and Shanghai. China’s National Health Commission confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans. CDC releases a specific diagnostic test for the virus that uses a real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). US researchers are growing the virus in cell cultures for further study.
21 January – Taiwan and the US (Washington) report their first cases. The US patient was quickly identified as a possible risk, isolated, and tested (details here). The CDC activates its Emergency Response System to support its response to 2019-nCoV, and deploys a team to Washington.
22 January – The World Health Organization holds an emergency meeting to determine if the virus is a “public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)“. See the result below. The total number of laboratory-confirmed cases in China is 571, with a death toll of 17. China imposes a quarantine on Wuhan, although it is only slowly enforced.
23 January – CDC raises its travel alerts for China.
24 January – Provinces and municipalities and China begin declaring a level 1 public health emergency. More areas in China are quarantined. The first case reported in Europe (in France). A second case was reported in the US. To date, the CDC has investigated 63 people in 22 states: 2 have tested positive and 11 negative. They believe the virus’ incubation period is roughly two weeks. Dr. Nancy Messonnier said it is “premature to conclude that we know whether it is more or less infectious than SARS and more or less severe than SARS.”
The World Health Organization’s verdict, so far
For details about the epidemic see the WHO’s January 23 report.
“Twenty five percent of confirmed cases reported by China have been classified by Chinese health authorities as seriously ill (from Wubei Province: 16% severely ill, 5% critically ill, and 4% having died).”
Their bottom line: “WHO assesses the risk of this event to be very high in China, high at the regional level and moderate at the global level.” The WHO developed a large package of protocols for surveillance, diagnosis, control, and treatment of cases. These embed the world’s accumulated knowledge, so that each nation need not prepare by themselves. They also coordinate the exchange of information.
The International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee met on January 23-24. Here is the press release.
“Research gives a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5. …Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.”
The R0 (a measure of contagiousness) number gets attention but is probably of little use for laypeople. Wikipedia gives a good introduction to it. The CDC often cites a paper saying that it is “easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied.”
The Committee concluded that it is too early to declare a “public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).” They will meet again in ten days, or earlier if warranted by events.
As usual, extreme views get more attention
While agencies (eg, WHO, CDC) make careful statements about the coronavirus, too many experts talk like it’s the Black Death. Wild speculation about worst-case scenarios. For example, see this. This gets them their 15 minutes, but feeds public hysteria. This has begun happening with every epidemic. We could get a “boy who cried wolf” effect, hampering the response to a major pandemic.
As an example, it takes just one paper to get people excited. Such as “Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions” by Jonathan Reed et al., a non-peer-reviewed paper posted at medRxiv. Although speculative and contrary to information from the world’s public health agencies, some take it as gospel and have extreme reactions. This is what America’s liberals see today at Naked Capitalism.
Conclusions
Extreme libertarians tell us that governments can’t do anything right, and that we should “starve the beast.” Conservatives also hate the UN. Here we see an example of strong government agencies – national and international – providing a vital service. These are underfunded, as a horrific pandemic would reveal.
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also see these posts …
- See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
- Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
A great film about epidemics in the 21st century
Contagion (2011).
This shows the progress of a pandemic from patient Zero, through global devastation, to eventual victory by the world’s scientists. From the studio …
“When Beth Emhoff (Gwyneth Paltrow) returns to Minnesota from a Hong Kong business trip, she attributes the malaise she feels to jet lag. However, two days later, Beth is dead, and doctors tell her shocked husband (Matt Damon) that they have no idea what killed her. Soon, many others start to exhibit the same symptoms, and a global pandemic explodes. Doctors try to contain the lethal microbe, but society begins to collapse as a blogger (Jude Law) fans the flames of paranoia.
Updates from comments of original article.
Update from the WHO on Jan 25
Situation update:
A total of 1,320 confirmed cases have been reported for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) globally.
Of the 1,320 cases reported, 1,297 cases were reported from China, including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taipei. A total of 1,965 suspected cases have been reported from 20 Chinese provinces, regions and cities (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taipei).
23 confirmed cases have been reported outside of China in nine countries. Of these 23 confirmed cases, 21 had travel history to Wuhan City, China; one case in Australia had direct contact with a confirmed case from Wuhan while in China; and one confirmed case in Viet Nam had no travel history to any part of China (it is transmission within a family).
Of the 1,287 confirmed cases (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taipei), 237 cases have been reported as severely ill.
41 deaths have been reported to date (39 deaths in Hubei province, one death in Hebei province and one in Heilongjiang province).
On 25 January, the number of reported confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV has increased by 474 cases since the last situation report published on 24 January.
WHO’s assessment of the risk of this event has not changed since the last update (22 Jan): very high in China, high at the regional level and moderate at the global level.
Update from the CDC
Five confirmed cases in four States of the US (AZ, CA, IL, WA). All were travelers from Wuhan. Summary:
“While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.”
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html
I’ve posted several thing on my FB timeline. Here’s a couple:
These blokes are well placed to post real information from doctors in Wuhan. It’s 71 minutes long, but I watched the whole thing (you can skip the comments on the podcast commenters).
What little faith I have in news from China is virtually destroyed. They really have no idea what the toll is, and they’re underreporting what they know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=youtu.be
After that, I fully agree with this from 2013: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/26/the-2019-ncov-virus-shows-that-weve-built-a-better-world/ especially:
Myth #3: Government cover-up is no longer a major concern in the post-SARS era.
Not true. The SARS crisis has forced the Chinese leaders to take steps to be more open and transparent in disease reporting and information sharing. Yet as shown in the 2008 hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak, local government officials found it difficult to adjust their existing behavioral patterns for crisis management, which still value secrecy and inaction. Similar communication problems also bedeviled the government’s response to the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. China’s SARS crusader Zhong Nanshan publicly expressed his distrust in government data on H1N1 fatalities. Political expediency continues to be put before epidemiological reality in sharing disease-related information with the public. The health authorities stopped updating the spread of H1N1 cases between September 30 and October 9, apparently fearing that reporting H1N1 deaths would ruin the celebrations planned for October 1, the National Day that marked the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
None of the deaths have been confirmed. The people lying on the floors of the hospital were tired from waiting to be “treated” – they were there all day. Simple questions like ““How do researchers actually isolate a new virus and identify it?” and, ***“What are the correct standards for proving a particular germ causes a particular disease?” were never answered. A vaccine miraculously appeared, just like with the Swine Flu. Remember the Swine Flu? I see just another fake flag, another psyops. This is about vaccines, not viruses.
So the Chinese government is causing billions of dollars in damage to their GDP, spending hundreds of millions constructing new health facilities, upset the lives of over fifty million citizens, and are killing people, to sell vaccines (which the rest of the world will not buy without extensive research and verification)?
Hope you got a good sale when you bought your tin foil hat.
The same extensive verification that is never done on any flu vaccines?
“““How do researchers actually isolate a new virus and identify it?” and, ***“What are the correct standards for proving a particular germ causes a particular disease?” were never answered. ”
wrong
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1
Don’t count out WHO just yet in dropping the ball.
My background as a scientist included statistical analysis of spread of infection. I have a friend who is a relatively new immigrant from China who had a biomedical background during the SARS epidemic he was involved. He was offered positions higher up in the bureaucracy but declined because he had decided (due to what he saw) that he was getting out of China and as a higher up in their system he would not be able to leave. He has several friends and extended family members in and from Wuhan. His personal assessment is this is a novel virus but it was also a horse long out of the barn and already widespread in the population and probably internationally. One women was sick in hospital for a month with this thing before it was identified and no precautions were being taken. An entire month is a lot of time to spread. Like regular flu and colds, it has a high mortality rate among those who require hospitalization for a secondary pneumonia. That is where the 4% mortality figure comes from. (This also fits the statements from the Canadian government officials which was 10% mortality among those hospitalized with secondary complications such as pneumonia.) Meanwhile the vast majority of individuals get what they think is a nasty cold and get over it. We’ve had a particularly bad cold/flu season here in my home province with more than 25% of students in school out with some really nasty bug that goes right into the chest. We are even speculating this may be the new coronavirus already long gone from China but undetected because it is just a nasty bug that most people get over without being hospitalized. As for the reaction in China, people are terrified. Most of the people packing the hospitals are not really sick, they are frightened out of their minds. They don’t trust the government because of the mess the government made with SARS. The government was hugely embarrassed internationally and their Chinese sense of honour took a really major hit. Their credibility at home also took a huge hit. So this time they are going to make damn sure they get it right. Hence the massive reaction which is likely an overreaction to a bug already out in the population. One other note of interest is the Chinese government had long ago declared the open air wildlife markets illegal but officials in Wuhan are corrupt and turned a blind eye to the markets. He predicts that this time, those markets will be shut down and permanently, cultural pressure and corruption not withstanding. He estimates the mortality rate to be about 0.2%. However he and I both agreed this is a new virus, it can mutate, it is too soon to know anything for certain. Preparing is therefore warranted. Stocking up on surgical masks with eye protection and gloves is a good idea and being prepped to handle being quarantined or self quarantining is also a good idea. This means a minimum of 14 days food, water and medical supplies in your house so you can close your doors and not go outside for any reason at all. Three months is better just in case it gets really bad. Prepping like this is just common sense not alarmism. Meantime, assume the bug is everywhere, wash your hands, no unnecessary travel and stay away from large crowds and places like hospitals and doctor’s offices unless you simply must go until we know better. If you have a preexisting health problem make that double avoidance. In other words, react sensibly just like this is yet another bad flu season.
I love the way liberals think.
WHO worked well this time. Therefore government and the UN are proven to be good things.
Again, the MSM is blowing this coronavirus story wayyyyyyy out of proportion..
To put things into perspective, 80,000 Americans died from influenza last year and 56,000 the year before that, while only about 100 Chinese have died from this coronavirus strain…
The current coronavirus strain can only be transmitted by direct contact, and is not airborne.
While its mortality rate is high at around 3%, there other Influenza strains with higher mortality rates and are more easily transmitted.
BTW, the recent surge of flu deaths in the US is contributed to the 1,000,000+ illegal aliens who crossed our Souther border….build the damn wall—-of course the CDC nor the MSM will report this fact as it doesn’t fit with their agenda of open borders..
Did you know that 88,000, Chinese peopke die from the flu each year? No cities quarantined; no travel shut down; schools stay open; no new medical facilities built; business as usual.
It’s not the MSM that is alarming (try as they might). It’s the extreme response of the Chinese government, despite their horrendous record for the health of their people, that is disturbing. They are clearly scared of this.
There is no front line test at point of care for this virus, as opposed to the influenza virus.
Meanwhile over at Zerohedge they have this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-closes-foxconn-johnson-johnson-and-samsung-factories-amid-virus-outbreak
It’s starting to look like the Chinese government is taking this seriously .
Let’s see what the mutations do in the combination of spread and severity.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/01/27/what-are-the-chinese-hiding-in-wuhan/
For Jon Rappoport’s latest articles on the China virus, go to: http://www.blog.nomorefakenews.com They are worth reading.
I am a ‘survivor’ of the Toronto SARS epidemic. Toronto was declared a no-go zone for tourists. Toronto doctors fled the city (brave souls), leaving sick and dying patients to fend for themselves. When a scientist wandered off the reservation and declared to the media that no one had actually been diagnosed with SARS (oops!) the hoax was revealed. Sounds pretty coordinated to me…
WHO Situation Report #6 on Jan 26
They provide updated numbers and this summary: “WHO’s assessment of the risk …has not changed since …22 January: very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level.”
But they report that previous situation reports said in error that the global risk was “moderate.” Whoops.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200126-sitrep-6-2019–ncov.pdf
This virus will not be “contained”. With an incubation period of up to 14 days and during some unknown part of that the patient is contagious, most of the infected people out there have not been discovered. Most will not even realize they have the disease and will recover naturally. U.S. borders are so porous (including airports) that it would require a miracle to keep this virus out.
I have seen numbers (with no idea if they are correct numbers) that about 2% die from an infection. I doubt this is correct – I suspect its 2% of the identified hospital cases and most cases are never identified…so call it 2% of those hospitalized – likely somewhere near .02% (probably less) of those catching the disease. This would make it similar to a bad version of a Flu virus (if even that).
The problem isn’t the virus in it’s current form, the problem is that it will mutate. Most likely it will mutate into a less severe form of the virus and just disappear into “no one notices it much”. There is always a chance it becomes more severe (like the Spanish Flu) and THAT is what keeps scientists up at night. Since it is likely not to be contained, we just have to deal with it. Until a vaccine comes out, the population is vulnerable to a deadly mutation.
So what is the risk? The chances are very high this will be less severe overall than a pandemic Flu season. The chances are not zero but very low this could turn ugly. Other than basic hygiene and common sense (do not travel to infected areas, stay home if you are sick, wash hands a lot) there is nothing the average person can do about it. Worrying about a low risk you cannot control is pointless (like worrying about the next asteroid strike).
There are (likely) thousands of other potentially dangerous viruses floating around out there we do not even know about. We find out about them when people get sick – so this will be a reoccurring theme. It’s like living with tornadoes in Texas – people new to our state will panic when a tornado warning is issued; people familiar with Texas weather get out the popcorn and watch the show, occasionally taking action when required. There is always risk, and you just learn to live with it.
It doesn’t matter at this stage HOW the virus started (from a chicken, a snake, or a secret laboratory, probably Dexter’s) – it’s already spreading. We have time to figure out the genesis but slowing down the spread is more important at the moment. Summer weather will likely slow this virus down and possibly squash it entirely. Most airborne viruses do not like humidity, so cooler/dryer weather is preferred. And yes, I am guessing it will be spreading and making headlines until then.
2019-nCoV is more a case of pollution than the start of some pandemic, fear is always the thing with the fake media, that and the conspiratorial thinking of the losers of the world.
Check out photo number #7…
https://pulptastic.com/35-unbelievable-photos-extreme-pollution-china/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718353440
The influence of urban planning factors on PM2.5 pollution exposure and implications: A case study in China based on remote sensing, LBS, and GIS data
“This study uses satellite remote sensing and location service data to measure PM2.5 pollution exposure in Wuhan metropolitan area and explores the effects of urban spatial structure, land use, spatial form, transportation, and green space on pollution exposure.”
And then of course…more studies…
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-china-wuhan-pollution/
Optical Properties of Aerosols and Chemical Composition Apportionment under Different Pollution Levels in Wuhan during January 2018
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/1/17
The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep40482
…there is more saying that the Wuhan, Hubei situation is pollution driven. Rather than an epidemic. Compromised immunity in highly oppressed people.
The great thing about this novelCorona virus outbreak is that, for anyone who has the stomach to pay attention, it shows the utter helplessness of the public health community to control such a virus.
I spent several hours yesterday and today listening to public health bigwigs from Ontario, Canada brag about how wonderfully prepared they are. But then a doctor from a suburban Toronto hospital mentioned that his hospital has been waiting for days for such simple supplies as masks and gloves.
A few days ago, a specialist was crowing about having a positive 24 hour test for the virus available the next day. But it took 4 days for the national lab in Winnipeg to confirm the first suspected case in Canada. More concerning yet is the fact that the one confirmed infected person in Canada walked through all the thermometer gauntlets in China, was not flagged by the airline crew on the long flight from Guangzhou to Toronto, and was again passed through on arrival in Canada.
Meanwhile, Canadian “experts” have lightly dismissed the Chinese report that this infection (unlike SARS) can be contagious during the incubation period of one to 14 days, a feat of incredible arrogance, given that the Chinese have thousands of confirmed cases to study, while the Canadians have barely one.
With several thousand cases to investigate, the original source of the virus still hasn’t been identified. Does anyone really believe that all, or even most, of the Chinese cases are primary infections? Yet this is the only weak argument Canadian “experts” offer the public as reassurance that they’re not at risk.
If we take all of the above factors together, there is nothing to stop the disease from spreading as explosively everywhere else in the world, especially since it’s happening during the regular flu season. If anything, the Chinese have a better chance of stopping it than the Western democracies. Lock down measures like those being used in China now are simply impossible to implement in North America or Europe.
If we’re lucky enough to survive this situation, the first order of business has to be to remove the “what me worry?” medical bureaucrats that currently infest public health and civil defense agencies. I hoped the Fukushima and the fenugeek E.Coli contamination of 2011 would be a wake up call in this respect. But evidently not. I wonder how many more chances we’ll get.
Canada had a significant number of SARS deaths but the US had not a one for about the same number of case per capita. Draw your own conclusions about the effectiveness of single payer vs the imperfect US mixed system.
Lock down is impossible “because democracy” you say.
Yet people (notably the pretend “conservative people” here) don’t object to mandatory STD vaccination for a child or baby.
Or mandatory measles vaccination (measles is almost never deadly is advanced countries).
So, lol. Huge lol.
And how well does this mandatory vaccination policy work?
Officially it works very well in France, the country known in the world for having the higher rate of vaccine skepticism and having almost as little respect for the laws as Italy (which is reasonable given the ineptness of “laws” and their ambiguities).
Since it’s mandatory, you can’t know if people are vaccinated, because then they might (reasonably) lie to you. Hence you can claim success.
But it might lead to a health catastrophe want parents who did not vaccinate their children don’t bring them to a doctor when they are ill, for (reasonable) fear of the vaccinestapo. The new generation of doctor is terrifying: people whose ancestors probably wrote letters to some germans and who also want to write letters. The culture of denunciation is still alive in France, and widely encouraged by the gov and its Trotskyist agencies.
How many people have to die because of fear of doctors?
“If we’re lucky enough to survive this situation, […]”
lol, so I take you you think we are goners…it a matter of pollution of one of the most polluted places on the planet rather than purported.
Nearly all the cases of death are in the elderly, and elderly breathing in Wuhan smog on a day to day basis makes for a perfect opportunity for any virus.
BTW, E coli? Many of its strains are harmless, in fact, a majority is and lives right now in your lower intestine.
I think you meant Fenegreek…its a herb and used as a sprout and microgreen. Very nutritious and good for you…
Fenugreek is a good thing for you, preferably as a living sprout or microgreen in your baloney sandwich. Much more nutrition than the baloney and the bread.
“In a 100 g amount, fenugreek seeds provide 1,350 kilojoules (323 kcal) of food energy and contain 9% water, 58% carbohydrates, 23% protein and 6% fat, with calcium at 40% of the Daily Value (DV, table). Fenugreek seeds (per 100 g) are a rich source of protein (46% DV), dietary fiber, B vitamins, and dietary minerals, particularly manganese (59% DV) and iron (262% DV) (table).” -Wiki
Sounds to me like its basically just a bad cold. But jumping hard on it early could slow it down enuf to prevent it from ever becoming a lot worse.
Panic is counter-productive. Storing water, and storing foods you do eat are cheap insurance policies. Also have plenty of vitamin C–AND vitamin D. My fave vit D is Carlson’s brand lemon-flavored cod liver oil, which makes a great salad oil. I get a bottle every winter to reduce my susceptibility to whatever is “going around.” Gets me to eat my salads, too.
The latest mortality rate figure I’ve seen for novelCorona Virus (last night) is 3%, that’s a much higher death rate than the flu, never mind a cold.
Wuhan Coronovirus Exponential Growth Continues – now 4,474 cases, 107 deaths
https://twitter.com/whistle_posse/status/1221964216040509440/photo/1
See Wuhan Coronovirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (Johns Hopkins) as of Jan 27, 2020, 8:30 pm EDT
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
8100 people were infected with SARS in 4- 5 months. This will be there in 5 weeks at the current rate.
Seems we are focusing on the percentage of deaths. I seems so far that a large majority survive the infection and it is also possible that an even larger percentage have been infected and did not even realize it because symptoms were mild or non-existent.
That is the classic profile of most viral respiratory infections. Most people just go about their business and get over it especially in third world countries like the PRC. People don’t go to doctors unless they are deathly ill. After the last pandemic panic of a decade or so ago –remember the “deadly” bird flu scare?– virologists went back and reexamined the evidence from the 1919 pandemic. There conclusion was that the death rate was vastly overstated because the number of cases was understated. Virtually the entire population came down with flu. My father anecdotally confirmed this many years ago when I asked him how his family got through it all. He told me they all got sick but went to work and school because it wasn’t very bad for them. This virus will be pretty much like any respiratory virus. Only those with a compromised immune system will be a serious risk. Large numbers of people die in their homes in short order when a disease is truly deadly. I wouldn’t worry until you see that happening.
Another myth recklessly propagated by Canadian public health authorities has been debunked by reports from Germany and Japan of cofirmed human to human transmission. The Japanese patient is a tourist bus driver who carried Chinese passengers from Wuhan.
Another interesting about face is that today the Canadian Broadcast Network is reporting that there are 170 Canadians in the quaranteened Wuhan region (yesterday they reported only 68), and that they are “desperate to leave”.
Yesterday the CBC reported that one Canadian was getting a lift out with American evacuees from the area, and that “no other Canadians have expressed any interest” in being evacuated.
One has to wonder whether the CBC is allowing the Chinese government to edit its broadcasts prior to airing.
The change in numbers can easily be explained by the Chinese government’s refusal to recognize dual citizenship for ANYONE. Thus, in its view, Chinese nationals who are naturalized Canadians are simply Chinese.
What’s interesting in this case is the reversal of priority compared to the previous situation with the downed Ukrainian airliner in Iran. There, the CBC immediately reported that 63 Canadians had died, later reducing the number to 57, IIRC. Tehran reported only 7 Canadians on board, since they also fail to recognize dual citizenship.
It appears that when Beijing says “jump”, the Government of Canada and its public new service say “how high”?
What to do?
Avoid crowds!
Maintain six feet distance from anyone coughing/sneezing
Standard surgical mask, some help
N95 respirator, no beard, 95%, goggles,
Wash hands, face
Nasal spray, neti pot, saltwater solution
Rest, fluids
The Science?
Vaccine recommended 6 mo. and up
Three months away…end of April
Antigenic drift may occur
Frey, et al, 2010…6% got flu; 9% unvaxed got it
Less effective for elderly
Zinc…lozenges, tablets, syrup may help
Vitamin C…small improvement
Probiotics…weak
Echinacea…not proven
Antiviral meds…decrease time/symptoms
zanamivir (Relenza)
oseltamivir (Tamiflu)
peramivir (Rapivab)
baloxavir marboxil (Xofluza)
Alternatives, on your own
Oregano oil, Oreganol
Lomatium
Silver hydrosol
WHO, Worse Than We Thought! Who has walked back their statement that the global risk was only “moderate,” admiting Sunday that this was in error. Instead, they say the Wuhan Corona virus risk to the globe is “high.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-tries-to-correct-wuhan-coronavirus-risk-level?fbclid=IwAR1g7I6gsLbRUjyatVRGMKWA6Xn3FyYj87ApJOHi-eTi98LdRPcW8alBBSk
Yesterday’s French news services reported that 5 million people left Wuhan at the beginning of January (“au debut”) , probably a third to half of the work force. Particularly remarkable is the timing, given that government only allows a 7 day work absence for New Year, and that for the period Jan.24-30. Unless this is fake news, several million Chinese took a week or two of unauthorized absence from work without pay just before the quarantine was declared.
The spread of the virus was caused by someone eating wild bats in Wuhan. This virus does not cause much harm to bats. The virus is mainly parasitic in cells. The heart of a bat can reach 1,000 times a minute when flying beat The body temperature also rises to 40 ° when it is active, but when it stops, the heart can quickly fall to a very slow rhythm, and a body that can lower the body temperature to 8 ° will cause the life of the cells to be very short. But the opposite bat’s cell regeneration ability is very powerful, the virus parasitizes in the cells and replicates the cells that have not been saturated before being killed and regenerating new cells. So this virus will reach a state of harmony and symbiosis in bats,
But some people eat these wild bats and cause the virus to invade the human body. Since the virus itself is parasitic on the bat, it does not adapt to the human body. Then the body ’s immune system sends them to the surface of the lungs in order to kill the virus-infected cells, and it will increase the blood flow rate to enter a large number of white blood cells like the lungs to kill these virus-infected cells. Later, through CT photos, the lungs will turn white. The fever is only because your body’s immune system is fighting these viruses. But if you do n’t survive, you may be burned to death, but if you survive, Alright, and your body also has antibodies to the virus and won’t get infected again. Most of the deaths were elderly people who were physically weak, and there were more young people in the cured group because they were more resistant and could survive. I can’t speak English. This is a translator, so there may be some problems with the grammar.
Thanks for this update. The translation seems surprisingly coherent. Except for the words “consumed by someone”. I assume you meant consumed by “several people”.
However, I don’t find your news reassuring. If the effect of the virus is as you seem to suggest, ie. illness and death is caused by the infected person’s immune system, as was the case with the Spanish Flu and is still the case with Hantavirus, then we should expect persons with strong immune systems to have the greatest mortality rate, in other words, primarly young, healthy adults. That would be the most devastating outcome.
The fact that the Chinese reports available to date show that several patients died without ever having a fever, suggests that detection of the disease is a serious problem. The infection rate could be several times higher that shown by the proven cases, and stopping the spread may be impossible.
Today’s report of one person infecting 15 others in Jiangxi Province is ominous.
This article won’t age well for you
“Nearly all the cases of death are in the elderly”.
Naturally – the elderly tend to have pre-existing illnesses, lower immunity, etc. so it makes sense that they will die ealier. Also that their illness will be detected earlier.
Have just searched on ages of the dead, and it appears the Chinese authorities have throttled the flow of information in the last week or so, as the number of proven infections and deaths have increased dramatically.
The only up to date site on this subject I’ve found is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
which also provides links for news and medical reports on this aspect of the epidemic.
One thing that strikes me is the number of official and news posts that emphasize the difference in this early death rate for novelCorona by using totally inappropriate comparisons (apples and oranges), particularly the “worldwide” or non-Chinese death rate for it compared to the worldwide death rate for SARS or MERS.
The falseness of this comparison is quickly seen by comparing the death rate in Wuhan City (5.6%), to that elsewhere in China. Obviously, death rates in developed countries with highly developed health care facilities, and much lower population densities and much fewer cases to deal with can be expected to have lower death rates.
The early death age statistics released by China are also deceptive, the youngest being 48, the oldest 89, and the median 75. Given the possibility that these early deaths were caused by consumption of the animal vector (more likely with older patients), that alone could explain the disproportionately elderly death range.