Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Another end of snow prediction.
Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common
A wavier jet stream brings cold Arctic air down south. That may be a counterintuitive result of climate change, some scientists say.
BY ALEJANDRA BORUNDA
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 13, 2019This week, temperatures are expected to hit historic lows across much of North America. Already, it has snowed in Texas and frozen in Tennessee, and hundreds of towns and cities are preparing for icy cold weather.
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Scientists are embroiled in an active debate right now about this loopiness. Some think the jet stream is wavier now than it has been in the past, and that its bends and bows will intensify as the planet warms further. That might mean that cold air could come sliding down from the north more often, a counterintuitive result of long-term global warming, explains Zach Zobel, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center.
Others, though, say that cold bouts haven’t gotten worse over the past few decades, and in fact, the long-term trend tilts toward warming. A recent study shows that, overall, the intensity of Northern Hemisphere cold events has weakened over the past 50 years. Compared to the long-term average warming trend since 1901, the coldest day of the year is up to 5 degrees Celsius warmer now. And the likelihood that any place in North America will feel a record cold is decreasing: The coldest day of the year is less cold than it used to be, and that number is increasing about five times faster than the average rate of global warming, the study says.
“Even if the jet stream does become a little wavier, that cold arctic air is less cold than it used to be,” says Russell Blackport, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Exeter. “So even with that same circulation anomaly, those cold events should be becoming less severe.”
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Read more: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/arctic-blast-polar-vortex-cold-weather-climate/
They can fiddle the temperature record, build dodgy reconstructions and they can hide declines all they want, but the one thing they cannot do is conceal evidence of extreme cold weather right in front of people’s eyes.
Let ’em know how stupid and corrupt you think they’ve become.
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It is generally accepted that there has been warming over the past 50 years during which the jets became more zonal, less wavy and more poleward.
However, that all stopped around 2000 and the jets have been getting more meridional, more wavy and more equatorward ever since.
First the warming trend stopped save for a short El Niño disruption and soon we should see a cooling trend. Timing is problematic due to oceanic thermal inertia but if these cold outbreaks continue so as to shorten growing seasons we will already be into it.
It’s quite simple. Temperatures have risen to record lows. It has gotten so much hotterer that it has colded, and it’s precisely what they have been warning us would happen for years. Griff and Loydo will be along shortly to explain the science.
It’s cold, because there is a warming?! #gretanism
Even had snow in the UK in the middle of November.
This year: Final snowfall in my kingdom was April 30, 2019. First snowfall in my kingdom was October 31, 2019, followed quickly by another on Veterans Day. That makes a period of 6 (six, count ’em) months of Spring, which was prolonged and wet, and Summer, which was warm, humid and brief, and when Autumn set in, it lasted much less time than it should have, with barely enough time for grains to dry to the proper level to prevent rot in grain silos.
None of this is taken into account, nor is it understood by the 11,000 self-styled “experts” on Climate This and That. They are desk drivers and chair warmers, and not much else.
If these seasonal variations become regular, then we are heading into a cooling period, and likely a very wet cooling period (humidity counts a lot in this) which will mean icy roads, jammed traffic waiting for accidents to be cleared out, more and more delays in commuter rail transportation while the rails are being thawed out, and – really important, possible rises in food prices owing to shorter growing seasons and more difficulty in transporting food to distant outlets.
All the whining, crying and belly-aching about “gorebull warming” is NOT going to change Mother Nature’s agenda, nor is it going to return the Sun, which lights our days and affects our seasonal changes, to normal solar activity.
If warming of the Arctic makes the northern hemisphere polar front jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the summer than in the winter. I have yet to notice that or hear of that happening. Any positive correlation between Arctic warming and jet stream waviness is only short term and due to the Arctic Oscillation.
If a decrease in Arctic snow and ice cover makes the jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the fall than it is in the spring. I have yet to notice or hear of that happening.
Climate Change is Causing Arctic Blasts to Become Less Severe…except for when it is causing them to become more severe. 11,000 scientists agree.
The shortened growing season and cold wet spring and autumn in the US Midwest mean that farmers need propane gas to dry harvested crops. So much so that there’s not enough to go around:
https://www.iceagenow.info/emergencies-declared-in-5-states-due-to-propane-shortages/
Currently the jet stream patterning over the NE Pacific and N America has got itself stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment. Where a strong jet stream crosses the Pacific and quickly weakens and splits when it reaches the NE Pacific. Thus driving part of the jet stream into the Arctic and then down across the eastern USA and bringing Arctic air with it. l call it the “ice age pattern” has it mirrors what was going on during those times. lt seems like warm water in the NE Pacific plus low sunspot activity increases the risk of this pattern set up. Little to do with CO2 levels.
The question in my mind is how many more cold winters does the northern US have to endure, and at which electoral point, will it become so politically painful for them that the Dems. have to give it up and stop talking about Global Warming. My current thinking is the mid-terms 2022.
Just to inject a note of reality here, restricted in time and place as it is: November here in Mechanicsville, VA, 12 miles NE of Richmond, has been cold. Temps have averaged nearly ten degrees F below the long-term mean from the Richmond airport. RIC is subject to Richmond’s UHI, and Mechanicsville (pop. c. 35,000) has a lesser UHI; but even discounting that, it’s been cold here, with a very early measurable snow (1″, stayed on the ground three days). The first sixteen days of November have been 9.7 degrees below the RIC average. The “normal” high for this time of year is 64, the “normal” low 41; so far this month there has been one “average” day and one above average (by 0.5 degree F); the other fourteen days have been below average. Does this cold snap prove anything? No, but it needs to be recorded and averaged in at the end. In the meantime, no garden work . . .
There will be more snow in the Great Lakes region.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea
Hide the cycles is basically a hallmark of post normal science.
Hmm i thought that the shrinking of the thermosphere is causing the wavy jet stream. But i guess that those scientists are too seriously doing their job