Claim: Climate Change is Causing Arctic Blasts to Become Less Severe

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Another end of snow prediction.

Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common

A wavier jet stream brings cold Arctic air down south. That may be a counterintuitive result of climate change, some scientists say.

BY ALEJANDRA BORUNDA
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 13, 2019

This week, temperatures are expected to hit historic lows across much of North America. Already, it has snowed in Texas and frozen in Tennessee, and hundreds of towns and cities are preparing for icy cold weather.

Scientists are embroiled in an active debate right now about this loopiness. Some think the jet stream is wavier now than it has been in the past, and that its bends and bows will intensify as the planet warms further. That might mean that cold air could come sliding down from the north more often, a counterintuitive result of long-term global warming, explains Zach Zobel, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center.

Others, though, say that cold bouts haven’t gotten worse over the past few decades, and in fact, the long-term trend tilts toward warming. A recent study shows that, overall, the intensity of Northern Hemisphere cold events has weakened over the past 50 years. Compared to the long-term average warming trend since 1901, the coldest day of the year is up to 5 degrees Celsius warmer now. And the likelihood that any place in North America will feel a record cold is decreasing: The coldest day of the year is less cold than it used to be, and that number is increasing about five times faster than the average rate of global warming, the study says.

“Even if the jet stream does become a little wavier, that cold arctic air is less cold than it used to be,” says Russell Blackport, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Exeter. “So even with that same circulation anomaly, those cold events should be becoming less severe.

Read more: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/arctic-blast-polar-vortex-cold-weather-climate/

They can fiddle the temperature record, build dodgy reconstructions and they can hide declines all they want, but the one thing they cannot do is conceal evidence of extreme cold weather right in front of people’s eyes.

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81 thoughts on “Claim: Climate Change is Causing Arctic Blasts to Become Less Severe

      • It’s a warmer cold
        Instead of “Freeze your nads off cold” it will be a much warmer “Mind numbing cold” instead

        • In actual fact due to UHI the cold temps should be slightly warmer.
          So what does that tell us about just how cold it really is?

        • The forecast for today, November 16, 2019 shows Frost and Freeze Conditions in parts of every USA state of the Lower 48 except Florida.

          And don’tja be fergittin that those unexpected, unforecasted “Frost, (snow) and Freeze Conditions” that have been occurring during the past few days ……. will have a direct effect on daily surface temperatures for the next several days …… because a quick “warm-back-up” would require a massive movement of tropical air into the northern latitudes.

          NASA will surely have fun massaging and adjusting these couple of weeks of “low temps” …… back up to “normal” ….. or above, so they can again claim “warmest EVAH”.

          • They certain will do the adjustments, I watch them do that last year on the Grand Forks ND and Fosston MN station. They failed to get records from that when the temps drop below -40. Low and below a few days later they had infilled the data and none of the temps were even close to -40.

        • https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

          U.S. DAILY RECORDS SUMMARY – THOUSANDS OF NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LAST 7 AND 30 DAYS.

          PERIOD HIGH MAX HIGH MIN LOW MAX LOW MIN SNOWFALL
          Last 7 Days 82 61 966 1225 420
          Last 30 Days 884 1005 3424 4201 1258

          In my opinion, the new record highs must be strongly discounted, because they are artifacts due to the UHI effect.

          It’s getting colder out there – some people still attribute this cooling to fossil fuels and global warming – maybe it’s brain freeze.

    • Jeez Louise folks, Hubert Lamb described this “loopy” (meridional) jet-stream pattern back in the 1970s, and clearly showed (with observational data) that it correlated with global cold periods – when there are larger temperature differentials between poles and tropics.

      The tropics never change much in climate history because they get fairly constant solar heating and they have all that water vapor and daily thunderstorm activity to move heat up and away (read your Willis E).

  1. “The odds are that what we can expect from global warming is more extreme examples of these incidents of extreme cold”
    Dr. John Holdren 2014.

  2. Variations in solar radiation, in connection with land/ocean distribution may well affect the the intensity of the Polar Vortex, sometimes with a violent Hi/Low distribution. It powers the Arctic Gyre in the atmosphere and in the Arctic Ocean. The high pressure differentials are sending out – and feeding -meridional pressure systems, known as Rossby waves which in turn interfere with the zonal flow of the Jet stream, making this normally circulating weather system into a garland and to stagnate.

    These “blocking ridges” are known to have descended down the latitudes and to have caused persisting undesired cold or warm periods, in Eastern North America and Western Europe, both during the cold months (breaking up around April) and in mid-summer. I have been assured that a southern provenance also exists, in Argentina.

    Recent work is by Nurser and Bacon (Ocean Science 10, 2014)

    • Interesting, if only we could show the general public how this is naturally occurring and certainly not unprecedented.

      • Problem One: There is no actual proof for my above suggestion. There seems to be lots of talk by solar physicists about various aspects of the solar dynamo, (surficial sheets, tachocline), but once varying radiation and particles leave the Sun, the talk stops.

        Problem Two: There is far too little talk about how the radiation and particles (either from Sun or Galaxy) actually affect the top of our vulnerable planet and its atmosphere, all the way from Svensmark to the Ozone layer’s signs.

        Problem Three: There seem to be too many “climate” scientists who refuse to step outside the confines of their specialty, reluctant to tackle the integration of the forces in the Solar System, i.e. too scared to step outside the atmosphere on the one hand, or to get mixed up in the somewhat messy politicized science of the atmosphere and that awful subject of climate change.

        In my mind, gravity rules Heaven and Earth. Orbits, conjunctions and oppositions of the major planets cause the Solar Inertial Movement wiggling the Sun (Charvatova) and affecting its dynamo(s) and radiation/particle output, in addition to influencing the oceans and our atmosphere. These are cyclic phenomena, in which several of the cycles geologists already know from observation can be tied to planetary orbital events. Starting with Milankovitch, some cycles can be observed back into the Mesozoic, some to dominate at one period, some in others.

        Where are the great unifiers of the Natural Sciences?
        This superannuated rock-hound has already ventured far enough outside his station.

  3. They lost me at [catastrophic] [anthropogenic]. We’ll always have weather and climate… change over irregular intervals.

  4. Wtf???? Hundreds of cold records broken by multiple degrees and records of the earliest cold by weeks? But don’t worry it’s really sun bathing weather if not fo those pesky deniers.

    • Justin Burch

      Unfortunately, they do. Lies like these are destroying peoples lives, from anxiety to suicide. This climate rubbish is everywhere now, even YouTube adverts.

    • My mother-in-law is a believer. While we never talk climate change (she’s a hard left liberal) she once told me out of the blue that she wouldn’t discuss climate change with me because I could snow her with my physics degree background. I had to respond that I understood. Even her hero, Al Gore, wouldn’t debate the subject. If you didn’t agree with him, he would just scream denier at you.

      But then I did ask her some questions. Why do green houses pump CO2 into their buildings? What’s the highest CO2 percentage seen in our planet’s history? At what percentage do all plants die? I provided no answers. I referred her to Wikipedia. She knows I consider that a poor source, but even they haven’t figured out how to distort the answers to those questions.

  5. I wonder what the lead time is on an article such as this.
    Alejandra might be wishing they could have pulled this and
    waited for a warmer period.

  6. Need we flog this dead horse some more?

    OK… ok… Floggings will continue until the scam collapses…
    Just more desperation fm CO2-AGW crowd when their theory predicts everything, which then it predicts nothing.
    Colder winter — AGW.
    Warmer winter — AGW.
    Wetter, warmer wet snow winter — AGW.
    Dry, cold, no snow winter — AGW.
    Wet, cold heavy snow winter — AGW.

    Junk science, all the way down.

    • So according to those world leading Nobel prized climate scientists :

      A : AGW causes Colder winters
      B : AGW causes NO (Colder winters).

      Taking the contrapositive of B we have :
      C : Colder winters causes NO (AGW)

      By transitivity, from A and C we have then :
      AGW causes NO (AGW).

      The climate science farce is settled !

  7. Here in Australia they leave out the cold minimum and maximum temperature anomalies but still average out the remaining normal or higher temperatures for each month. I’ve seen months where they leave out six days or more of temperatures. I have also seen minimum temperatures altered from one day to the next. The average temperatures put out are absolutely meaningless.

  8. This issue has been my speciality for over ten years now as readers of this site will know.
    The fact is that past cold periods such as the LIA have been associated with loopier jets and stormier middle latitudes.
    Why should it be any different today and where is the poleward extending drier Mediterranean climate type expansion that was previously predicted as a result of the then more poleward and less loopy jets?
    In the face of climate changes precisely the opposite of what we were told to expect they are now starting to produce ever more implausible scenarios.

    • Climategate Email 0476.txt

      It’s true that by comparison with the glacial world, the interglacial climate has been less “angry”. … My sense is that Wally B’s notion that the ‘angry beast’ is a creature of colder eras but not of warmer times has some support.

  9. An important feature is that loopier jets involve longer lines of air mass mixing which creates more clouds, raises global albedo, reduces solar energy into the oceans and eventually leads to cooling until the jets become more zonal again.
    Svensmark’ s cosmic ray supposition becomes unnecessary.

  10. The National geographic has degenerated into an embarrassing self-parody of alarmist self-deception and denial. Now it’s no more than a fantasy fanzine for warmist believers decorated by expensive photographs.

    This is an example of stream-of-consciousness blather posturing as expert analysis:

    But the question—what does that Arctic amplification do to the jet stream, and what does it mean for winter weather—is at the leading edge of atmospheric science research right now. It’s a hard question to answer because weather is so inherently flighty; it’s hard to pick out long-term patterns from a wildly variable system.
    The overall message, though, is clear: the planet is heating up, and the weather patterns to which humans have become accustomed will continue to shift and change.

    This is direct self contradiction. Climate is “inherently flighty” and “it’s hard to pick out long-term patterns from a wildly variable system”. But still we know that it’s warming. Yeah right.

    “the planet is heating up, and the weather patterns to which humans have become accustomed will continue to shift and change.”

    This statement reinforces the belief that is inseparable from the climate change narrative and warming alarm, despite pathetic denials – that their null hypothesis is Edenic stasis. That without humans, climate never changes and never changed before. That’s the quality of science, logic and reasoning that we’re dealing with.

  11. Does anyone know when they, (climate alarmists) advise is the best time for throwing virgins down the volcanoes to pacify the fire gods?
    Perhaps we have to wait for things to get even loopier, before we get to that real climate science action?
    Maybe someone in the USA close enough to those snowed in, frozen solid citizens trying to survive the latest arctic blast of “Autumn” would like to call the people in UTAH and let them know, the warmists don’t think it is so cold up there…..

    • Pointy, Good link great fun. There is such a field of candidates this year it is almost impossible, I feel a slight disappointment that only one prat of the year is awarded.
      Here in the UK it has been a particularly good pratfest year. All thanks to the ongoing farce called “Westminster”, an every day story of cant and troughers. The ubiquitous Bercow would have to be a contender, his “Bollocks to Brexit” bumper sticker on the car he drove around, belonged to his wife he assured us, thus his impartiality was not in any way compromised, yes John we all believed that…
      Then we have the ultimate BBC public face of misinformation and false alarmism. Step forward one Sir David Attenborough! His achievements this year were many. The stand out or perhaps slide off moments were spectacular. Who could forget his flying walrus voice over. “These Walrus don’t just launch themselves off the cliff without reason, it is all due to climate change” we were told. The editing out of those pesky Polar Bears entering stage left, was necessary to avoid any confusion as to what spooked the Walrus, it was man made climate change….obviously.
      The ultimate accolade has, however, already been awarded to Sir David. This year an arctic research vessel was named by popular poll in the UK. The name chosen by the ever respectful Brits, was “Boaty McBoatface” This gave the ministry a bit of an issue, it didn’t quite match up with their sense of Naval decorum and fair play. They thus declared, Boaty McBoatface would actually be called “Sir David Attenborough” – and god bless all who sail in her/him/it/zee. The irony of calling Boaty, Sir David Attenborough has not yet sunk in. Suffice to say, Sir David is now referred to colloquially, as Boaty McBoatface for obvious reason. I nominate Boaty for prat of the year.

      • Good choice as Attenbolloxs preaches globally whereas the world has been spared the poison dwarf Bercow.

      • I’ve just been over to Pointman’s place and nominated Attenborough before reading your post here. I was aware that he had had a boat named after him but I hadn’t realised that it was that boat. That is absolutely priceless.

  12. “Others, though, say that cold bouts haven’t gotten worse over the past few decades, and in fact, the long-term trend tilts toward warming. A recent study shows that, overall, the intensity of Northern Hemisphere cold events has weakened over the past 50 years.”

    This makes sense in terms of trends in station data that show (for both hemispheres, incidentally) that the warming is seen mostly as a weakening of colding rather than a strengthening of warming. Both in the USA and in Australia, we find that warming is seen mostly in nighttime daily TMIN and not in daytime daily TMAX and mostly in the seasonal TMIN of winter and not in the seasonal TMAX of summer. Here are the data

    USA: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/04/05/agw-trends-in-daily-station-data/
    Australia: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/12/australia-climate-change-daily-station-data/

    • chaamjamal ,

      ” the warming is seen mostly as a weakening of colding rather than a strengthening of warming”

      This is exactly what my 5 minute data over the past seventeen years shows here in the central US.

      Reason? Not sure. Someday I need to find the time to extract rainfall and relative humidity data and see if there is any tracking between that data and the temp.

      • It is probable the inability new measurement equipment failing and getting non linear in extreme cold. I what it happen in real time last winter. After the failure at about 11:00 PM that night not data through the next day. Later in the week the infilled data replaced all the data even the number recorded before the failure all the number did not reflect how truely cold it was. Add in now over 60 of the US day is not reported daily so it gets infilled, one should take the recently publish numbers for what they are, worthless.

  13. “Even if the jet stream does become a little wavier, that cold arctic air is less cold than it used to be,” says Russell Blackport, ” – article

    What are these guys smoking? It must be REALLY good stuff if they’re this far out of touch with reality. Having sloppy, bitter cold weather this early is NOT unusual, but it IS annoying, just like the idiots who style themselves “scientists” but are actually propaganda mongers for The State of Decay.

    I still think rounding them up and dumping them off on an island they can’t escape for about 18 months is a good idea, just to see how long that “Lord of the Flies” bit takes to reduce their idiot numbers. But that’s just me and my cat agreeing that these guys need a cold (very, very cold) hard dose of reality.

    Here’s some reality: heavy rains have the river levels up WAY too high, ditto small lakes. Now they’re mostly frozen. I’m going out with a camera this next week to get more photos of them. More precipitation in ANY form will add to this water level and come Spring, we won’t just be having flooding unless we have a very, very warm and friendly winter, with only a few days of the Frozen Kingdom interfering. Anything is possible in this wacko weather shift that we’re having.

    However, this insistence on refusing to acknowledge any possibility other than CATASTROPHIC GLOBAL WARMING (so that they can get more cash out of it) is a denial of reality, and denial of reality is – what – ? just plain NUTS!!!!

  14. Judith Curry makes a good point. She says the climate debate is a lot less ‘science-y’ than it used to be. (probably because the science doesn’t favor the cause) From my reading of the popular press good leftists always believe the warmists just as good leftist always believe the woman in a sex assault or harassment dispute. Its not about the facts it’s about whose side you are on.

  15. Let ’em know how stupid and corrupt you think they’ve become.

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  16. It is generally accepted that there has been warming over the past 50 years during which the jets became more zonal, less wavy and more poleward.
    However, that all stopped around 2000 and the jets have been getting more meridional, more wavy and more equatorward ever since.
    First the warming trend stopped save for a short El Niño disruption and soon we should see a cooling trend. Timing is problematic due to oceanic thermal inertia but if these cold outbreaks continue so as to shorten growing seasons we will already be into it.

    • Hi Stephen,

      Long time advocate of your pressure-gravity theory – makes complete sense to me. I have one question though that you might be best placed to answer. (or if anyone else wants to chip in)

      If the temp of the Earth surface is determined by the mass of the atmosphere and the resultant pressure, does the addition of extra Co2 molecules in the atmosphere increase its mass/pressure and cause a rise in temps?

      With my limited understanding of the idea gas laws, I’m assuming the volume of the atmosphere would change and keep the temp the same in response to an increase in pressure from the existence of ‘extra’ mass from Co2. Or would the mass of the atmosphere change e.g. more water vapour absorption back to the ocean to keep the optical thickness the same?

      I’d love to hear you opinion on this – as I’m just going through my understanding of it and I’m curious about this aspect.

      Ta

      • Hello pompeydano
        Any increase in atmospheric mass will increase surface pressure which forces molecules closer together which improves the efficiency of conduction between surface and air at the expense of radiation to space. Convection then stores that extra conducted energy for one convective overturning cycle during which that extra energy is hidden as potential energy within the atmosphere.
        To the extent that an increase in CO2 increases atmospheric mass then it would increase any greenhouse effect but it is such a tiny amount that we would never be able to measure it.
        The reason for an increase in surface temperature being necessary would be that one would need a bit more kinetic energy at the surface to keep the slightly increased weight of the atmosphere’s mass off the surface and balanced against the downward force of gravity whilst at the same time still allowing enough radiation out to space to match radiation in from space.
        Due to the opposing forces between gas molecules the volume of the atmosphere does change with any increase in mass but a volume increase only causes a temperature drop under the gas laws if you increase volume whilst the mass of the gas stays the same.
        I am glad that the basic message is gaining some traction.

  17. It’s quite simple. Temperatures have risen to record lows. It has gotten so much hotterer that it has colded, and it’s precisely what they have been warning us would happen for years. Griff and Loydo will be along shortly to explain the science.

    • Stephen Foster was way ahead of his time as he predicted this effect of Anthropomorphic Global Warming in 1848:

      It rained all night the day I left
      The weather it was dry
      The sun so hot I froze to death
      Susanna don’t you cry

  18. This year: Final snowfall in my kingdom was April 30, 2019. First snowfall in my kingdom was October 31, 2019, followed quickly by another on Veterans Day. That makes a period of 6 (six, count ’em) months of Spring, which was prolonged and wet, and Summer, which was warm, humid and brief, and when Autumn set in, it lasted much less time than it should have, with barely enough time for grains to dry to the proper level to prevent rot in grain silos.

    None of this is taken into account, nor is it understood by the 11,000 self-styled “experts” on Climate This and That. They are desk drivers and chair warmers, and not much else.

    If these seasonal variations become regular, then we are heading into a cooling period, and likely a very wet cooling period (humidity counts a lot in this) which will mean icy roads, jammed traffic waiting for accidents to be cleared out, more and more delays in commuter rail transportation while the rails are being thawed out, and – really important, possible rises in food prices owing to shorter growing seasons and more difficulty in transporting food to distant outlets.

    All the whining, crying and belly-aching about “gorebull warming” is NOT going to change Mother Nature’s agenda, nor is it going to return the Sun, which lights our days and affects our seasonal changes, to normal solar activity.

    • ren
      I changed to winter tyres last week.
      Fortunately paid for by my company car rental policy.
      Here in Belgium where I live, changing tyres spring and autumn is not mandatory but very widespread.
      In Germany and Switzerland it’s illegal not to have winter tyres in winter, worth knowing if you travel there.
      In the UK (where I’m from) most people are unaware of the existence of different winter and summer tyres.

      • That’s because in most of the country is we get 10cms of snow, everything stops because it almost never happens. We don’t get much snow, and freezing weather usually comes out of the East and is dry, so frozen roads are usually have no snow. The gritters chase it all away.

        OK, up in the hills it is different, but laws are not based around what happens up in the hills.

      • If you follow Formula One car racing you’ll know there are soft and hard tyres.
        Winter tyres are simply softs.
        They grip better, but also wear out faster.
        Winter tyres are not only useful for snow. They also give better grip with ice on the road, as well as wet and leaf covered road surface.

        Tyre companies such as Continental and Pirelli are among our company’s customers. A Continental engineer once explained to me that soft winter tyres are actually better and safer all year round. But fitting hard summer tyres is just economics, it is more durable and lasts longer. And it’s safety is acceptable in summer.

  19. If warming of the Arctic makes the northern hemisphere polar front jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the summer than in the winter. I have yet to notice that or hear of that happening. Any positive correlation between Arctic warming and jet stream waviness is only short term and due to the Arctic Oscillation.

    If a decrease in Arctic snow and ice cover makes the jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the fall than it is in the spring. I have yet to notice or hear of that happening.

  20. Climate Change is Causing Arctic Blasts to Become Less Severe…except for when it is causing them to become more severe. 11,000 scientists agree.

  21. Currently the jet stream patterning over the NE Pacific and N America has got itself stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment. Where a strong jet stream crosses the Pacific and quickly weakens and splits when it reaches the NE Pacific. Thus driving part of the jet stream into the Arctic and then down across the eastern USA and bringing Arctic air with it. l call it the “ice age pattern” has it mirrors what was going on during those times. lt seems like warm water in the NE Pacific plus low sunspot activity increases the risk of this pattern set up. Little to do with CO2 levels.

  22. The question in my mind is how many more cold winters does the northern US have to endure, and at which electoral point, will it become so politically painful for them that the Dems. have to give it up and stop talking about Global Warming. My current thinking is the mid-terms 2022.

    • Wrong, never, the left will never accept the truth, they rather murder you than admit they were wrong. If you think I am exaggerating just look at what happen in Russia, China and any other communist country during the twenty century. The death toll was around 200,000,000.

  23. Just to inject a note of reality here, restricted in time and place as it is: November here in Mechanicsville, VA, 12 miles NE of Richmond, has been cold. Temps have averaged nearly ten degrees F below the long-term mean from the Richmond airport. RIC is subject to Richmond’s UHI, and Mechanicsville (pop. c. 35,000) has a lesser UHI; but even discounting that, it’s been cold here, with a very early measurable snow (1″, stayed on the ground three days). The first sixteen days of November have been 9.7 degrees below the RIC average. The “normal” high for this time of year is 64, the “normal” low 41; so far this month there has been one “average” day and one above average (by 0.5 degree F); the other fourteen days have been below average. Does this cold snap prove anything? No, but it needs to be recorded and averaged in at the end. In the meantime, no garden work . . .

  24. Hmm i thought that the shrinking of the thermosphere is causing the wavy jet stream. But i guess that those scientists are too seriously doing their job

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