Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Another end of snow prediction.
Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common
A wavier jet stream brings cold Arctic air down south. That may be a counterintuitive result of climate change, some scientists say.
BY ALEJANDRA BORUNDA
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 13, 2019This week, temperatures are expected to hit historic lows across much of North America. Already, it has snowed in Texas and frozen in Tennessee, and hundreds of towns and cities are preparing for icy cold weather.
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Scientists are embroiled in an active debate right now about this loopiness. Some think the jet stream is wavier now than it has been in the past, and that its bends and bows will intensify as the planet warms further. That might mean that cold air could come sliding down from the north more often, a counterintuitive result of long-term global warming, explains Zach Zobel, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center.
Others, though, say that cold bouts haven’t gotten worse over the past few decades, and in fact, the long-term trend tilts toward warming. A recent study shows that, overall, the intensity of Northern Hemisphere cold events has weakened over the past 50 years. Compared to the long-term average warming trend since 1901, the coldest day of the year is up to 5 degrees Celsius warmer now. And the likelihood that any place in North America will feel a record cold is decreasing: The coldest day of the year is less cold than it used to be, and that number is increasing about five times faster than the average rate of global warming, the study says.
“Even if the jet stream does become a little wavier, that cold arctic air is less cold than it used to be,” says Russell Blackport, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Exeter. “So even with that same circulation anomaly, those cold events should be becoming less severe.”
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Read more: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/arctic-blast-polar-vortex-cold-weather-climate/
They can fiddle the temperature record, build dodgy reconstructions and they can hide declines all they want, but the one thing they cannot do is conceal evidence of extreme cold weather right in front of people’s eyes.
Let ’em know how stupid and corrupt you think they’ve become.
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It is generally accepted that there has been warming over the past 50 years during which the jets became more zonal, less wavy and more poleward.
However, that all stopped around 2000 and the jets have been getting more meridional, more wavy and more equatorward ever since.
First the warming trend stopped save for a short El Niño disruption and soon we should see a cooling trend. Timing is problematic due to oceanic thermal inertia but if these cold outbreaks continue so as to shorten growing seasons we will already be into it.
Hi Stephen,
Long time advocate of your pressure-gravity theory – makes complete sense to me. I have one question though that you might be best placed to answer. (or if anyone else wants to chip in)
If the temp of the Earth surface is determined by the mass of the atmosphere and the resultant pressure, does the addition of extra Co2 molecules in the atmosphere increase its mass/pressure and cause a rise in temps?
With my limited understanding of the idea gas laws, I’m assuming the volume of the atmosphere would change and keep the temp the same in response to an increase in pressure from the existence of ‘extra’ mass from Co2. Or would the mass of the atmosphere change e.g. more water vapour absorption back to the ocean to keep the optical thickness the same?
I’d love to hear you opinion on this – as I’m just going through my understanding of it and I’m curious about this aspect.
Ta
Hello pompeydano
Any increase in atmospheric mass will increase surface pressure which forces molecules closer together which improves the efficiency of conduction between surface and air at the expense of radiation to space. Convection then stores that extra conducted energy for one convective overturning cycle during which that extra energy is hidden as potential energy within the atmosphere.
To the extent that an increase in CO2 increases atmospheric mass then it would increase any greenhouse effect but it is such a tiny amount that we would never be able to measure it.
The reason for an increase in surface temperature being necessary would be that one would need a bit more kinetic energy at the surface to keep the slightly increased weight of the atmosphere’s mass off the surface and balanced against the downward force of gravity whilst at the same time still allowing enough radiation out to space to match radiation in from space.
Due to the opposing forces between gas molecules the volume of the atmosphere does change with any increase in mass but a volume increase only causes a temperature drop under the gas laws if you increase volume whilst the mass of the gas stays the same.
I am glad that the basic message is gaining some traction.
It’s quite simple. Temperatures have risen to record lows. It has gotten so much hotterer that it has colded, and it’s precisely what they have been warning us would happen for years. Griff and Loydo will be along shortly to explain the science.
Stephen Foster was way ahead of his time as he predicted this effect of Anthropomorphic Global Warming in 1848:
It rained all night the day I left
The weather it was dry
The sun so hot I froze to death
Susanna don’t you cry
It’s cold, because there is a warming?! #gretanism
Even had snow in the UK in the middle of November.
This year: Final snowfall in my kingdom was April 30, 2019. First snowfall in my kingdom was October 31, 2019, followed quickly by another on Veterans Day. That makes a period of 6 (six, count ’em) months of Spring, which was prolonged and wet, and Summer, which was warm, humid and brief, and when Autumn set in, it lasted much less time than it should have, with barely enough time for grains to dry to the proper level to prevent rot in grain silos.
None of this is taken into account, nor is it understood by the 11,000 self-styled “experts” on Climate This and That. They are desk drivers and chair warmers, and not much else.
If these seasonal variations become regular, then we are heading into a cooling period, and likely a very wet cooling period (humidity counts a lot in this) which will mean icy roads, jammed traffic waiting for accidents to be cleared out, more and more delays in commuter rail transportation while the rails are being thawed out, and – really important, possible rises in food prices owing to shorter growing seasons and more difficulty in transporting food to distant outlets.
All the whining, crying and belly-aching about “gorebull warming” is NOT going to change Mother Nature’s agenda, nor is it going to return the Sun, which lights our days and affects our seasonal changes, to normal solar activity.
I suggest replacing summer tires with winter tires.
ren
I changed to winter tyres last week.
Fortunately paid for by my company car rental policy.
Here in Belgium where I live, changing tyres spring and autumn is not mandatory but very widespread.
In Germany and Switzerland it’s illegal not to have winter tyres in winter, worth knowing if you travel there.
In the UK (where I’m from) most people are unaware of the existence of different winter and summer tyres.
That’s because in most of the country is we get 10cms of snow, everything stops because it almost never happens. We don’t get much snow, and freezing weather usually comes out of the East and is dry, so frozen roads are usually have no snow. The gritters chase it all away.
OK, up in the hills it is different, but laws are not based around what happens up in the hills.
If you follow Formula One car racing you’ll know there are soft and hard tyres.
Winter tyres are simply softs.
They grip better, but also wear out faster.
Winter tyres are not only useful for snow. They also give better grip with ice on the road, as well as wet and leaf covered road surface.
Tyre companies such as Continental and Pirelli are among our company’s customers. A Continental engineer once explained to me that soft winter tyres are actually better and safer all year round. But fitting hard summer tyres is just economics, it is more durable and lasts longer. And it’s safety is acceptable in summer.
If warming of the Arctic makes the northern hemisphere polar front jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the summer than in the winter. I have yet to notice that or hear of that happening. Any positive correlation between Arctic warming and jet stream waviness is only short term and due to the Arctic Oscillation.
If a decrease in Arctic snow and ice cover makes the jet stream wavier, then it would be wavier in the fall than it is in the spring. I have yet to notice or hear of that happening.
Climate Change is Causing Arctic Blasts to Become Less Severe…except for when it is causing them to become more severe. 11,000 scientists agree.
The shortened growing season and cold wet spring and autumn in the US Midwest mean that farmers need propane gas to dry harvested crops. So much so that there’s not enough to go around:
https://www.iceagenow.info/emergencies-declared-in-5-states-due-to-propane-shortages/
Currently the jet stream patterning over the NE Pacific and N America has got itself stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment. Where a strong jet stream crosses the Pacific and quickly weakens and splits when it reaches the NE Pacific. Thus driving part of the jet stream into the Arctic and then down across the eastern USA and bringing Arctic air with it. l call it the “ice age pattern” has it mirrors what was going on during those times. lt seems like warm water in the NE Pacific plus low sunspot activity increases the risk of this pattern set up. Little to do with CO2 levels.
The question in my mind is how many more cold winters does the northern US have to endure, and at which electoral point, will it become so politically painful for them that the Dems. have to give it up and stop talking about Global Warming. My current thinking is the mid-terms 2022.
Wrong, never, the left will never accept the truth, they rather murder you than admit they were wrong. If you think I am exaggerating just look at what happen in Russia, China and any other communist country during the twenty century. The death toll was around 200,000,000.
Just to inject a note of reality here, restricted in time and place as it is: November here in Mechanicsville, VA, 12 miles NE of Richmond, has been cold. Temps have averaged nearly ten degrees F below the long-term mean from the Richmond airport. RIC is subject to Richmond’s UHI, and Mechanicsville (pop. c. 35,000) has a lesser UHI; but even discounting that, it’s been cold here, with a very early measurable snow (1″, stayed on the ground three days). The first sixteen days of November have been 9.7 degrees below the RIC average. The “normal” high for this time of year is 64, the “normal” low 41; so far this month there has been one “average” day and one above average (by 0.5 degree F); the other fourteen days have been below average. Does this cold snap prove anything? No, but it needs to be recorded and averaged in at the end. In the meantime, no garden work . . .
There will be more snow in the Great Lakes region.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea
Hide the cycles is basically a hallmark of post normal science.
Hmm i thought that the shrinking of the thermosphere is causing the wavy jet stream. But i guess that those scientists are too seriously doing their job