Guest post by Paul Dorian,
*Arctic blast has arrived in the eastern US…numerous record low temperatures by early Wednesday*
Overview
The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
Details
Often times the passage of a frontal system signals the end of the precipitation, but that is not the case today as an upper-level jet streak is enhancing upward motion and helping to generate some post-frontal precipitation in the I-95 corridor. As temperatures continue to drop, the rain is changing over to snow in many locations and this changeover threat will extend all the way to the east coast over the next couple of hours. Small snow accumulations are possible and there is the possibility of some “black ice” to form on the roadways later today as temperatures slide towards the freezing mark.
A widespread region of the country experienced daily record or near record lows this morning and, in some cases, the lowest temperature ever recorded for the month of November took place which is particularly impressive since we haven’t even reached the mid-way point of the month. This area of record or near record lows will shift to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US by early tomorrow morning as many low temperature records are well within reach. For example, at Philly Int’l Airport (PHL), the record low for November 13th (Wednesday) is 24 degrees and this is certainly within reach and many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor will drop to the teens in the overnight hours. In addition to the potential for overnight low temperature records, high temperatures on Wednesday will be confined to the low-to-mid 30’s along the I-95 corridor and these may turn out to be the “lowest” high temperatures ever recorded for the date of November 13th.
Some of the very impressive weather observations from this morning include monthly temperature records at Clinton, Oklahoma (12 degrees), Altus AFB, Oklahoma (13 degrees), Mt. Vernon, Illinois (10 degrees), and Fort Worth, Texas (20 degrees). This is especially impressive given the fact that we haven’t even reached mid-month and most monthly records are set near the end of the given month. In addition, the daily record set this morning at Indianapolis, Indiana of 8 degrees shatters the prior record set 108 years ago and Chicago, Illinois dropped to a record of 7 degrees – both of these are the lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season. In Detroit, Michigan, the Arctic blast resulted in nearly 10 inches of snow…the most ever there for the month of November. Finally, and not to be outdone, it dropped all the way down to 7 degrees in Amarillo, Texas earlier today.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Running naked through an airliner… ?
A short story about my one interaction with the National Weather Service:
Years ago, late October, we were sailing west in the Atlantic heading back to our marina near Rock Hall, MD. The wind was 35 – 40 knots NNW, seas 6 -8 ft, temperature in the low 40s with light rain. We were under reduced sail doing 6+ knots. The boat was handling it beautifully. Even in those conditions it was fun.
Then we came to the Delaware Bay and turned north. The tide was against us, with a 3 foot chop, close hauled we were going nowhere. With the motor at 80% throttle we were managing about 2 knots. My wife was at the helm and I was taking constant sightings (this was before good GPS) to navigate through the numerous shoals. In short, we were getting our butts kicked.
Then we hear on channel 16, “This is the National Weather Service, Lewes, Delaware. Can anyone tell us what the weather is like out on the bay?” I thought it better to not reply.
Good thing Earl Hackett didn’t have Greta aboard, who would have turned off the motor (How dare you!), and Earl and his wife would have drifted south for hours waiting for the tide to turn…
Back in the 1980s I worked at an observatory in the Andes pre cordillera. The weather forecast consisted of two telexes, one from Santiago 500 km south, the other from Antofagasta similarly distant to the north. Then we interpolated (!). During the 1982/83 El Nino the weather in the whole of Chili was so bad that one day we got the message on the telex: ‘hoy no tiempo por causa del tiempo’, there is no weather forcast today because of the weather.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50401308,
We are facing a severe winter in the northern hemisphere. This year, unlike in previous years, the Barents Sea freezes very quickly.
You need to get over to Venice, they have the highest water level since 1966 and it’s apparently because of climate change and at he same time that Venice is sinking.
Venice is sinking.
What were they doing in 1966?
Surely England winning the [Soccer] World Cup didn’t cause the waters to rise?
Tho’ England won a Cricket World Cup [well, give or take . . .] earlier this year.
Did Fiat invent the SUV in about 1959? How did we miss that?
Auto
Yesterday, on one US major national network TV show (begins with N and ends with C) there was a segment about 5 minutes long discussing the chance that up to 100 records for cold temperatures could be set between today and tomorrow for the cold spell hitting the Mississippi valley region up to Northeastern states. But there was not one mention of “climate change” at any point in said segment.
In contrast, a few cities set a few record hot temperatures for a few particular days of last summer, and the MSM was overflowing with reports that this was clear evidence of “climate change”.
. . . something about hidden agenda therein.
The current situation is compatible with the Wolf Minimum.
https://urbancoldspots.blogspot.com/2019/11/il-nord-america-entra-nella-little-ice.html?m=1
Al
“The current situation is compatible with the Wolf Minimum.”
Certainly it isn’t. As far as I recall, a Wolf Minimum is a global event.
What North America has been experiencing for some years is very local, and has imho more to do with distorted tropospheric polar vortexes over that (small) part of the Earth than with the Sun.
Some think the tropopause is leaky above that place, and lets more and more cold streams pass down to the lower troposphere and from there to the surface.
Wait and see.
Extremely low magnetic activity of the Sun.
?time=1573668063000
If you think winter will be warm in the northern hemisphere, this is a big mistake.
For my little spot on the globe, the 12th and the 13th of November did actually set new record lows for those dates.
Both of the previous record lows were set in 1911.
Now both new low records have been set in 2019, at the height of Global Warming.
(Tiljander?)
This morning (the 14th) I tuned into the The Storm Channel (on mute) before going to work.
The seemed ecstatic that the could finally report on a large number of new records (I’m sure they would have preferred new record highs to new record lows).
They flashed up a bunch of old records and the years they set but now broken.
1911 showed up quite a bit. Even for old record lows in the deep South.
My take away?
This cold wave in November has happened before.
It is NOT a sign of “Climate Change”.
Concord NH set a record for lowest high temperature for the date. Winds overnight prevented radiational cooling from breaking the low temperature record. (OTOH, that was some pretty impressive cold air advection.) Clouds are expected tonight, so we likely won’t break a low temperature record. Other places in NH with shorter records broke low temp records though.
Old: 30°F in 1894 (data goes back to 1868)
New: 25°F. Breaking a 125 year old record by five degrees is stunning!
Is there anything global warming cannot do?
Ric Werme
Are you serious? You are talking about a record break at -3 °C as if that had been -30!
What about these below?
-USS0010D24S MT_Placer_Basin_______________ 2014 11 12 -38.2
-USS0010D24S MT_Placer_Basin_______________ 2014 11 11 -36.9
-USC00488884 WY_THERMOPOLIS_9NE____________ 2014 11 14 -36.7
Wyoming and Montana are hundreds of miles away from the nearest ocean, and have multiple mountain ranges between them and the Pacific.
Concord is less than 100 km to the Atlantic, and is about 100 meters above sea level.
Your data seems to be the all-time coldest, that’s not what impresses me. Were all those records broken this week, and by how much? We very rarely see 125 year-old records set by nearly 3°C
I think you’re comparing apples with hockey pucks.
The Atlantic front shows that the jet stream is moving far south. That is why it is snowing in Spain and France. High pressure over Scandinavia.
Winter began on November 13, 2019 in the northeast US.
16F (-9C) overnight lows here in US mid-Appalachians several times this past week (and attendant show-showers). A bit unusual, not not that much — there was a fairly big snowstorm this time last year. Doesn’t mean I like it……
North America and Scandinavia are the two places where glacial growth nucleated the massive NH glaciation of the last glacial maximum. About 20-25,000 years ago. So exceptional cold and ice in those places now is of special interest.
The solar minimum starts to stretch out its fangs. And that’s just the beginning. Vienna is pretty cold as well. Next year the Minimum will develop its effect for the first time and from there it will get worse every year. A new mini ice age looms and we will freeze. Many will wish that the Alarmists would have been right. Let’s see how long it takes for people to go to the streets when they find out that their energy security is bye-bye.