Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
The recently released EIA IEO 2019 report forecasts global energy use and emissions growth from year 2018 through year 2050.
The report shows the world’s developing nations CO2 emissions climbing upward by an enormous 8.4 billion metric tons by year 2050 from year 2018 levels.
This huge increase in emissions is driven by increased global energy use with the developing nations accounting for over 87% of world future energy growth as estimated by this forecast.
In sharp contrast the report forecasts the world’s developed nations will decrease CO2 emissions by 651 million metric tons by year 2050.
Thus the huge world increase in global CO2 emissions based on the IEO forecast are accounted for solely by the world’s developing nations.
The developing nations are forecast to significantly increase energy use from both fossil fuels and renewables with fossil fuel growth exceeding the increase in renewables growth.
Conversely the developed nations energy growth as forecast in the report shows decreased use of fossil fuels with significantly increasing renewables.
This developed nation energy use outcome is driven by the assumption of continued government mandated preferred renewable energy policy actions.
Fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy use in year 2050 accounting for over 68% (down from 80% in 2018) of total global energy consumption despite the assumption of mandated government dictated policy actions to support increased renewables during the 32 year long forecast interval.
Globally fossil fuel use in 2050 is forecast to grow by about 25% from year 2018 levels with all of that growth accounted for by the world’s developing nations.
Renewable energy is forecast to provide about 28% of total global energy use in year 2050.
Renewable energy in 2050 is forecast to grow by about 266% from year 2018 levels based upon continued government mandated renewable energy use policy actions.
Wind and solar resources are forecast to account for only about 17% of global energy use in year 2050 clearly establishing that climate alarmist demands pushing 100% zero emission global energy use outcomes are absurdly unrealistic pipe dreams.
Government renewable energy policy actions include continued use of production tax credits, investment tax credits, numerous rebate schemes and government mandated use requirements with none of these policy actions reflected in energy market pricing provisions for renewables.
Given global experience showing that the removal of renewable subsidy provisions dramatically reduces the use of renewables the IEO reports assumptions that such provisions will continue unabated for the next three decades is questionable given the growing recognition by governments of how costly and unaffordable these subsidy provisions have become.
Additionally the significant and negative environmental impacts of renewable wind energy projects on species conservation especially the threat to endangered bird and bats has resulted in legal challenges that have reduced wind projects in Germany this year by 82% from the already weak period of the prior year.
The EIA IEO 2019 report confirms the global reality of unrelenting use and growth of fossil fuels as the dominate energy resource for providing for the world’s existing and future energy consumption needs. The world’s developing nations overwhelming dominance in increased global energy use and resulting emissions dictate this outcome.
Despite decades of government policy dictated mandates requiring renewable energy use along with extensive and costly subsidy actions these resources have been shown to be incapable of meeting the majority of global energy needs in a cost effective and reliable fashion
The EIA IEO 2019 report results clearly demonstrate these global energy use and emissions realities.
Fortunately continued global energy use growth with increasing emissions does not create “a climate emergency” as falsely claimed by climate alarmist propagandists as proven by actual climate data outcomes versus alarmists erroneous claims based on their use and reliance upon unvalidated flawed and failed computer projections.