by E. Calvin Beisner
Britain’s Prince Charles said it: “the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels.”
There you go. 18 months.
And you thought AOC was shrill!
Why 18 months?
Supposedly because, as Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute, and one Pope Francis’s chief advisors on his 2015 environmental encyclical, put it, “The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can’t be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020.”
Ah. Yes. “The climate math.”
Is that kind of like the old “new math” that drove parents crazy back in the sixties and seventies? Or the “Common Core” math that prizes creativity more than getting the answers right? (Warning: Don’t fly on a jet engineered that way.)
“Climate math.” What a fascinating concept!
According to the average results of computer climate models, we should have seen about 0.27˚ C of global warming per decade since the late 1970s.
But the best data we have show about half that much—0.13˚ C per decade according to the University of Alabama at Huntsville’s satellite data.
Don’t get me wrong. There has been warming. But the models simulate about twice what we’ve observed.
And they simulate that as coming entirely from CO2 we’ve added to the atmosphere. But the world has warmed similarly many times in the past. That makes it pretty likely that at least some of the warming we’ve seen came from natural causes, not our CO2 emissions.
What’s more, the models estimate “climate sensitivity”—how much warmer the atmosphere will be after the whole climate system adjusts to a doubling of atmospheric CO2—at 1.5–4.5˚ C with a 3˚ “best estimate.” But more empirically driven estimates put “climate sensitivity” at about 0.5–1.5˚ C.
So the models are wrong. Almost unanimously wrong. Hopelessly wrong.
(Take a look at that first graph again. The closest to right is a Russian model. Collusion, anyone?)
And if the models are wrong, they provide no rational basis for predicting future temperature. Hence no rational basis for any policy.
But don’t sweat the small stuff. “Climate math,” you know? That solves everything.
So don’t even bother to ask about the math for global temperature if the countries signed onto the 2015 Paris climate treaty meet their targets for CO2 emission reductions—and what it’ll cost.
But let’s ask anyway.
Temperature? It’ll be at most 0.17˚ C cooler in 2100 than otherwise—statistically barely detectable, and utterly inconsequential to ecosystems and human welfare. (By the way, that number’s generously calculated from the Paris treaty’s own assumptions.)
Cost? A mere $70 to $140 Trillion. And that’s just from 2030 onward—doesn’t count 2016–2030. (Again, based on the treaty’s own assumptions.)
That figures to $23.3 to $46.6 Trillion per tenth of a degree Fahrenheit. But don’t worry. “Climate math” makes that a deal you can’t pass up!
And what do the climate warriors insist we commit to, within 18 months, to achieve this magnificent result?
Simple. By 2050, cut annual global CO2 emissions by 90 percent of what they were in 1990.
But there’s a catch. CO2 emissions are forecast to rise to nearly 50 Billion metric tons by 2050, compared with about 20 Billion in 1990. Hitting the target means reducing the 2050 emissions by 96 percent.
And there’s another catch. Most CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels provide over 80 percent of all the world’s energy—and they’ll continue to do so well past 2050.
Meanwhile, energy and economic production march together almost lockstep. More energy means more production. And that means less poverty and less of the troubles it brings, like disease and early death and—ironically—a dirtier environment.
So massive cuts in CO2 emissions will mean massive cuts in energy and thus massive cuts in poverty reduction—i.e., massive increases in poverty.
And poverty’s a greater threat to human welfare than anything related to climate or weather.
But, hey, what’s to worry about? President Trump is pulling the United States out of the Paris treaty. So we’re okay.
Except for AOC’s “Green New Deal.” And such a deal it is!
Economist Benjamin Zycher did the math—the real math, not “climate math”—on the GND’s costs. He shared the results at the 13th International Conference on Climate Change, in Washington, July 25. Take a deep breath.
Just to meet the GND’s renewable electricity mandate would cost, at a very conservative estimate, $491 Billion a year—or $3,845 per household.
And then there are the indirect costs. What are those? The costs of building the political coalition necessary to turn the GND (which AOC introduced as a resolution) into law:
- $3.2 Trillion for a single-payer health care system;
- $680 Billion to guarantee everyone employment;
- $107 Billion for “free” college and family-and-medical leave;
- $200 Billion for high-speed rail (because planes won’t fly on batteries!);
- $4.5 Trillion for the marginal excess burden of the expanded tax system. (It costs a lot to collect all those taxes!)
That totals $9 Trillion a year. A paltry sum. Just slightly over two-fifths of our economy.
So the real math tells us the 18-month deadline, and the 12-year deadline, and all the other deadlines are fantasies.
What’s the real reason why Schellnhuber, Prince Charles, AOC, and others insist we have only a short time to get serious about fighting climate change?
Simple. Don’t by any means give people time to think carefully about what you’re demanding they do—time to do the math to carefully assess your case for rapid CO2-driven warming, your case for catastrophic results from it, your case for being able to prevent catastrophe by your policy, your case that the benefits of your policy will outweigh the harms.
No, no, no! Got to do it NOW!!!
E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.
If the world embraced this lunacy, all work would have to be taken up by the pitifully underperforming renewables, animal power and human slavery. You know that if the totalitarians win, nuclear is off the table. We’re barreling toward serfdom. Welcome to the dark ages.
No problem downloading this article so puzzled by some of the comments.
A good analysis but far too complicated for those of little brain and definitely not destined for publication on the MSM.
For me the bottom line is simple. :- Calculating the costs of GND is irrelevant; as without fossil fuel use there will be no money available to pay for its implementation.
Perfectly reasoned…
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber is an extremely intelligent achiever. He has marketed his view of climate far more effectively than you or me. So, don’t set out to rubbish him, he is the better man by some important criteria.
There is a problem, because his expressed views of future climate and its consequences make most of us uncomfortable, because we do not wish for the dismal future he sells or for the responses to it. We think he is wrong. But, there is even a good chance that he is right overall and I am wrong.
If you wish to achieve something with him, you need to be able to start a discussion about the different views, to isolate the critical points of difference for further research. The path that proper science should take. This is where this narrative falls apart because of the widespread and strong unwillingness of he and his fellows to enter into meaningful debate. That is the sticking point. Until it can be overcome there can be no progress beyond several groups shouting different views to each other. I know my motivation for wanting to make progress (to utilise good scientific principles, including challenges to hypotheses) but I have no idea about his motivation.
Does anyone here have any inside knowledge of what makes Dr Schellnhuber tick? No wild assed guesses, most interested in accounts of personal meetings, performance delivering scientific papers and so on.
This matter of motivation has fascinated me for decades. In that time, I cannot recall ever meeting one of these “alarmists” let alone one of prominence. Yet they are supposed to be numerous enough to be controlling aspects of education, media, law making, social change. Does any blogger here actually know one of the species well enough to derive motivation?
Geoff S
Geoff S wrote:
“This matter of motivation has fascinated me for decades. In that time, I cannot recall ever meeting one of these “alarmists” let alone one of prominence. Yet they are supposed to be numerous enough to be controlling aspects of education, media, law making, social change. Does any blogger here actually know one of the species well enough to derive motivation?”
Geoff – do you think this reality is an accident?
“All over the world, countries that once had a future have fallen into dictatorship, poverty and misery. It is notable that of the ~167 large countries in the world, most are totalitarian states, and all but “the chosen few” citizens of these countries suffer under brutal leftist dictatorships.”
Full article here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/04/the-cost-to-society-of-radical-environmentalism/
Geoff: I haven’t met one, either, but I can observe that (supposed?) they do in fact control education and media, two big drivers of culture(or social change). I observe they do not yet control law making.
I do not find it fascinating. They are plainly motivated by the notion that they are right about something SO important that they must tell others how to live. It’s not a new thing, been there many times in history where the “betters” think they can run things better. I think you are not “fascinated”, you’re over-thinking it and overlooking the obvious- they are selfish humans who think themselves selfless and virtuous.
In Orwell’s 1984, no one in the book ever meets Big Brother. Similarly, no one in the real world has ever met the ‘climate consensus’! Schellnhuber is real and someone here could have possibly met him personally, but Schellnhuber is not driving the movement, he is just profiting from it. It is the fictitious ‘consensus’ that is driving the movement.
The ‘consensus’ and ‘Big Brother’ have a lot in common. They are both extremely benevolent and all knowing. Their motivation is clearly to protect the people from harm and is just as clearly unquestionable. Most importantly, they are completely fictional. People working for Big Brother or the ‘consensus’ claim the exact same motivation and demand the exact same fealty. But their real motivation is almost certainly money, power and prestige, for that is the motivation of the vast majority of humans who have risen above anonymity, as well as those who have not.
Altruism is an event in the life of a human, not a description of a human life.
Follow the money.
Start with Al Gore and all his political connections and big money donors. Folks like the Rockefellers, Steyer, Soros, etc. We now have literally dozens of political action groups with thousands of people whose income depends on the climate scam.
Add that to University climate departments and the number keeps growing. Within the governments of the world and media there are even more people whose jobs would disappear without climate funding. Finally, the wind, solar, ethanol, etc. industries add in even more money to fund this scam.
Eighteen months, huh? Thanks! I’ll make a note. Set up a reminder to pop up and tell me “The World Has Ended!” or something like that.
I keep saying they need to be sent to an island somewhere and supplies dropped to them. I’d substitute “another planet somewhere” but I would rather not inflict their stupidity and greed on some unsettled world.
On the other hand, they might have to defend themselves against stobor. It IS the season for stobor… and for meganeura, too. Almost forgot that. And giant mantis shrimp.
I love it! We can call it “Island that time Forgot” we can pick out one with an active volcano, or maybe we should call it the “Island of misfit scientists.”
Supply drops will of course exclude fossil fuel. We will supply the parts so they can build their own windmills and solar panels to kill the local wildlife and supply power to the pumping stations to utilize all that geothermal energy.
I personally have no objection to a carbon -reduced or carbon -free economy provided that it does not affect current standard of living or individual freedoms. So, with those reservations, and accepting a carbon free economy (UK or US) sometime in the future why don’t we change the approach to deadlines.
Instead of saying “carbon free ” by 2020, 2030, or whatever is latest action cry , ignore the end and concentrate on the means.
For example : electric cars- wonderful for some, ridiculous to others , but definitely suffering 3 major problems: too expensive compared to ICE cars , limited mileage, and uncertainty about the value in the used car market (due to worries about battery). So my suggestion is that the objective for a deadline is, say, 6 years(by 2025) to make an electric car totally equivalent to a conventional car of similar capacity in price, range and second hand retail value . Then I suspect that the electric cars will dominate much of the family car market , with significant reductions in CO2 without draconian taxes and legislation and general political hysteria. (Of course I am asuming that the required improvements are , in principle , achievable).
Basically I am saying let a market economy achieve your ends , with approriate Govt support for the design and engineering research costs involved.
If you want an example of how this has worked in the past , consider air travel . Once only rich people could afford intercontinental air travel. The rest of us had to go by ship, rail or mule. The UN did not say , in 1950 : for reasons of fairness we will make air transport available to the average working family by 1960 at the latest. No the market , assisted by reseach help to Roll Royce , Pratt andWhitney , etc produced fast , reliable long range mass carriers long befor 1960 and holidays abroad, visits to distant family , etc became available to many more people. It was concentrating on the means , better jet engines , wider bodies improved navigation aids , etc that produced the ends – mass transport and cheaper holidays for more people than just the rich.
Tesla started at the top of the market, producing cars for people willing and able to pay a lot, and used what they learned to reduce the cost and increase market share.
Nissan took almost the opposite tack from the start, a more conventional car-maker strategy to introduce a low end model and move it up market on trade-in.
Sure, there is some fear about battery range loss but it’s gradual, minimal, and doesn’t disable the car, as opposed to the more sudden $9,000.00 expense of repairing engine-disabling compression loss from piston skirt melting in a Ford Fusion Turbo.
PHEVs seem to make more sense than pure electrics in a northern climate, especially in rural areas.
Randy , an example of how the market should work (and did 100 years ago) with Tesla and Nissan converging on the same objective : an affordable vehicle , attractive in range, price, resell value. Instead what we have in the UK is a Govt minister banging a puny fist on the table and saying :” no more ICE cars after 2025 , and if you cannot afford a Tesla 3 then tough – walk to work and get some fat off you (not that you will have any fat because by then we will have banned burgers , pizzas and fish and chip shops )”.
18 months because that is the UN timetable!
The UN elitist technocrats and bureaucrats know of no other subject that has caught most national governments attention so well as the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (cAGW), aka Climate Change, Climate Emergency Climate Weirding, Carbon Pollution, Climate Disruption and Climate Catastrophe.
They know that in order to make the all new World Government they must take action while the AGW meme is still working on the majority of the world’s population and the majority of national governments. National governments are still saying they’ll abide by the Paris Accord, they are still enacting legislation to limit CO2 emissions, they are still making promises to lower CO2. It matters not that rarely anybody lifts a finger to actually do anything in reality, or that overall CO2 levels continue to rise, what is important is that national governments agree with the UN about CO2.
So watch out for expansion of UN requirements, or new moves to enable the UN to get closer to it’s big prize …
¯
Each small step takes the UN closer to it’s goal of becoming the World Government. They’re aim appears to achieve it by about 2070.
Mike, Charles being a king , would be at the top of that shit-heap, so no probs for him!
Can we go straight from Madge to Wills and Kate? Charley is a proper Charley.
On the flip side….
in 18 months everyone is off the hook! Think about it. They’ve just killed off their own agenda by saying that in 18 months, game over. And it won’t matter anymore. We had 18 months to “fix the climate” and we failed. (Cue collective sigh of relief). We can all go home now, we failed as a planet to save it, so yea…..there was that…..well, it’s over now. well OK then…life goes on.
I love it when morons shoot themselves in the foot.
Agreed. Everytime I see a deadline like this, I think “Okay, 18 months, nothing changes so we’re all toast now. No reason whatsoever to take action because it won’t help.” I also refuse to allow any changes in the deadline, which I know will be tried. If 18 months is the drop-dead date, then 18 months and one day from now, I see no reason to take any action recommended by the climate change people. Should the market and not the government bless us with some useful new energy solutions, great. If not, it matters not all.
I suspect that the “morons” know that if they don’t accomplish their goal soon, it will be all over for them. Seems as if the natural warming cycle is ending, only to be followed by another natural cooling cycle, this time possibly augmented by the predicted solar minimum. ( can anyone say “little ice age”??). Would love to last another 30 years so I can see the headlines of the late 70’s trotted out again, but since I am already well past my best used by date, I can only imagine, and grin at the foolishness of human hubris.
It is roughly 18 months until the US swears in a new leftist President, or re=elects the current one.The reason for this time table is simple. If we have another 5.5 years of the US refusing to cooperate with the wackos, their case will be increasingly difficult to maintain. They need the major powers to regurgitate the propaganda, and having one that does not, makes it difficult to maintain the illusion of the need to stomp out Liberty.
They want to be able to play both sides of whatever the climate does. If it warms, they can claim they were right. If it stays the same or cools, they can claim it is due to the actions taken, by the climate aristocracy.
This has nothing to do with managing any climate issues, and has everything to do with political posturing to reduce the risk, WHEN it is obvious they are wrong.
Can the monarchy survive 18 months? The potential king sounds like Harold Camping. His mother should tell him to STFU, while figuring out how to bump Prince William to the top of the line of succession over his daddy, without having to go to court to prove he’s a nutcase.
What’s up with counting a cost twice? The new taxes, and what they’ll be spent on?
I too experienced teaching of “new maths in the UK for a couple of years, before reversion to “trad maths” at high school.
It was a lucky escape I am still grateful for.
Great article!! Thanks.
Charles as King is a disaster for the reputation of the Royal Family and for the operation of the constitution of Great Britain.
I’ve got some bad news. Climate change deniers are an endangered species and soon to be extinct.
http://inthesetimes.com/article/21980/i-went-to-a-climate-change-denial-conference-heartland-institute-trump
Yes Andy, and let’s not forget what Max Planck said, “science advances one funeral at a time”
Too fracking funny…
http://inthesetimes.com/about/
I seriously doubt that any science conference would make sense to Christine MacDonald, 1998 BS in journalism. https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-macdonald-45552430
“the next 18 months will determine our ability to keep {the} climate change {scam} to survivable levels.” There, fixed.
Funnily enough, I was reading a thread on a political debate forum last night. A couple years back in the thread, one of the CAGW true believers was defending the fatally flawed computer climate models by stating that the newest Boeing jet had been designed based wholly upon a computer model.
That was the Boeing 737 Max, grounded because the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) was faulty, causing the planes to go into fatal nosedives, with the pilots pulling as hard as they could on the sticks to right the plane, and with the “computer modeled” control system diving the plane even steeper.
If engineers cannot even get the model of a comparatively small airplane to accurately mimic the processes of flight, the climate alarmist ‘scientists’ (propagandists in all but title) stand no chance of accurately modeling the atmosphere with their curve-fitted nonsense models. The engineers designing the plane understand the processes, the implementation of the computer model was flawed. The climate alarmist ‘scientists’ don’t even have the first faint clue about how the complex coupled non-linear multivariate and chaotic system which is the atmosphere works… if they did, they’d model it, not curve-fit it. Their curve-fits on in-series data invariably fail for out-of-series data, leading to ridiculous projections that likewise invariably fail.
In other words, it’s time to fire the so-called climate ‘scientists’ and get some actual scientists doing the job of modeling the atmosphere. Because the current crop are utterly incapable of doing the job. I recommend particle physicists and quantum mechanics. They have a deep understanding of the hard sciences.
Crashes from Airbus software are legend.
The 18 months thing reeks of desperation.
Desperate is all they have. They’ll still have it in 18 months, so what’s there to be desperate about?
GET SERIOUS, PEOPLE !!! WE’RE DOWN TO 17.5 MONTHS !!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The reason: They are running out of other people’s money. At least here in the States direct subsides for solar ans wind have a time limit. Then Congress has to renew them.
Climate change is the eco-fascist foundation of the New World Order – everything else is bulls*it and subterfuge. It’s the stark-raving mad, butt-naked emperor and everyone”s yammering about fabrics.
Climate alarmist want to act now so that they can get their polocies started before the temperature starts to cool down. Then it makes it look like what they have put in place actually lowered temperature when actually it is just good old Mother Nature at work. If they don’t get their polocies in place before it cools down their all going to be looking like fools. (And fools they are!)
Written by a man who’s running a front for big oil through “The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow”. Believe the oil industry or 99% of climate scientists
(Does this mean you have no argument to post? writing an useless fallacy doesn’t help you here, do better next time!) SUNMOD
Judas Priest
How many qualified ‘climate scientists’ are there on the planet.
Nor do I mean those that study climate from the perspective of physics, chemistry, mathematics, engineering, or any of the other innumerable other valuable sciences.
I mean how many people designated ‘Climate Scientists’ are there?
Don’t know?
Thought not.
As usual lots and lots of words. I understood that C2’s effects were
logerthmitic. So by now the effect of first absorbing heat energy, then
re-radiating it to other gases has decreased .
At what figure will it cease to have any effect on the temperature ?
CO2 an its so called effects are still the key to this nonsense.
MJE VK5ELL