Glacier National Park Quietly Removes Its ‘Gone by 2020’ Signs

Montana Glacier National Park Mountains Cracker Lake

Glaciers Appear to be Growing, not Melting in Recent Years

By Roger I. Roots, J.D., Ph.D.,

Founder, Lysander Spooner University

May 30, 2019. St. Mary, Montana. Officials at Glacier National Park (GNP) have begun quietly removing and altering signs and government literature which told visitors that the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030.
In recent years the National Park Service prominently featured brochures, signs and films which boldly proclaimed that all glaciers at GNP were melting away rapidly. But now officials at GNP seem to be scrambling to hide or replace their previous hysterical claims while avoiding any notice to the public that the claims were inaccurate. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers such as the Grinnell Glacier and the Jackson Glacier appear to have been growing—not shrinking—since about 2010. (The Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade.)

The centerpiece of the visitor center at St. Mary near the east boundary is a large three-dimensional diorama showing lights going out as the glaciers disappear. Visitors press a button to see the diorama lit up like a Christmas tree in 1850, then showing fewer and fewer lights until the diorama goes completely dark. As recently as September 2018 the diorama displayed a sign saying GNP’s glaciers were expected to disappear completely by 2020.

Video of the diorama two years ago.

But at some point during this past winter (as the visitor center was closed to the public), workers replaced the diorama’s ‘gone by 2020’ engraving with a new sign indicating the glaciers will disappear in “future generations.”

Almost everywhere, the Park’s specific claims of impending glacier disappearance have been replaced with more nuanced messaging indicating that everyone agrees that the glaciers are melting. Some signs indicate that glacial melt is “accelerating.”
A common trick used by the National Park Service at GNP is to display old black-and-white photos of glaciers from bygone years (say, “1922”) next to photos of the same glaciers taken in more recent years showing the glaciers much diminished (say, “2006”). Anyone familiar with glaciers in the northern Rockies knows that glaciers tend to grow for nine months each winter and melt for three months each summer. Thus, such photo displays without precise calendar dates may be highly deceptive.

Last year the Park Service quietly removed its two large steel trash cans at the Many Glacier Hotel which depicted “before and after” engravings of the Grinnell Glacier in 1910 and 2009. The steel carvings indicated that the Glacier had shrunk significantly between the two dates. But a viral video published on Wattsupwiththat.com showed that the Grinnell Glacier appears to be slightly larger than in 2009.

The ‘gone by 2020’ claims were repeated in the New York Times, National Geographic, and other international news sources. But no mainstream news outlet has done any meaningful reporting regarding the apparent stabilization and recovery of the glaciers in GNP over the past decade. Even local Montana news sources such as The Missoulian, Billings Gazette and Bozeman Daily Chronicle have remained utterly silent regarding this story.

(Note that since September 2015 the author has offered to bet anyone $5,000 that GNP’s glaciers will still exist in 2030, in contradiction to the reported scientific consensus. To this day no one has taken me up on my offer. –R.R.)

Additional Facebook video from Roger Roots.

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ResourceGuy
June 7, 2019 6:10 am

The funny thing is I witnessed a creationist quizzing park employees about all the fossil displays at the Petrified Forest relative to the biblical great flood. Yet the Park Service engages in global warming religion of its own with these AGW educational (scare) signs in its parks that read like National Geographic editorial writing. I guess humans are just susceptible to telling tales in their own minds and spinning it to others.

We just don’t need to be doing it with taxpayer funded salaries, benefits, contractors, and NatGeo writers.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  ResourceGuy
June 7, 2019 6:25 am

Yes. Some folks just trade one fantasy for another, apparently unable to see reality.

Mark Pawelek
June 7, 2019 6:26 am

Once upon a time in Switzerland, priests did exorcisms to stop glaciers advancing. Today in USA, atheists ‘clean up’ their propaganda to hide their failed tea-leaf readings of retreating glaciers.

The root of exorcism is from the Greek: εξορκισμός, exorkismós “binding by oath”. I don’t see how oath’s, curses, or propaganda will bind a glacier.

ResourceGuy
June 7, 2019 6:43 am

From National Park Service signage on the trail at Sunset Crater National Monument, AZ….

“The harshness of this environment may mimic the effects of global warming and long-term drought. What we learn here may help us predict the impacts of continued warming trends.”

Or recasting the NPS statement: What we project here with our editorializing with “may” statements helps us distort policy in favor of those advocating for the placement of this signage. Unsolicited climate agenda advertising is important to us and real science has been demoted to secondary status in our day jobs. And don’t depart from the path or you may upset the harsh environment.

June 7, 2019 7:00 am

The drive through Glacier National Park shows spectacular alpine views.
As a “Geo” I’ve worked on mountainous properties from near Whitehorse south to WA State.
Even including near the Taku Glacier.
Access via bush plane and/or helicopter.
And the views at GNP are outstanding and one can drive through it.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Bob Hoye
June 7, 2019 8:52 am

Okay, I’m looking forward to going now that the climate scare prediction signage is gone. Let’s hope it does not become a Wall Drug-type series of billboards down the highway.

Vuk
June 7, 2019 9:18 am

on ice and other matters
from Grumpian
The end of the Arctic as we know it
The demise of an entire ocean is almost too enormous to grasp, but as J. Watts writes
“The Arctic as we know it is about to become history.”
this is not only a worser worse, but worsest worse than ever before.

William Astley
June 7, 2019 10:37 am

If the Arctic warming was cause by AGW is should have continued rather than stop warming and now there is evidence of cooling.

The Greenland ice sheet glaciers have started to advance.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48265217
Jakobshavn Isbrae: Mighty Greenland glacier slams on brakes

Mighty Greenland glacier slams on brakes
“It’s a complete reversal in behaviour and it wasn’t predicted,” said Dr Anna Hogg from Leeds University and the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM).

“The question now is: what’s next for Jakobshavn? Is this just a pause, or is it a switch-off of the dynamic thinning we’ve seen previously?”

https://notrickszone.com/2019/05/20/greenland-has-been-cooling-in-recent-years-26-of-its-47-largest-glaciers-now-stable-or-gaining-ice/

In 2018, 26 of Greenland’s 47 largest glaciers were either stable or grew in size.
• Overall, the 47 glaciers advanced by +4.1 km² during 2018. Of the 6 largest glaciers, 4 grew while 2 retreated.

Paradox: Global warming is not global.

It is a fact that we have experienced high latitude warming, not global warming. There has been almost no tropical warming.

As CO2 in the atmosphere is well mixed, there should be little variation in the CO2 forcing with latitude all else being equal.

All else being equal the amount of warming due to the increased in CO2 should be the most in the tropics as the tropics is the region that has the most amount of infrared radiation emitted to space.

Calling the Arctic warming Arctic ‘amplification’ assumes any warming is AGW warming and hides the AGW theory paradox that there is almost no warming in the tropics which is a paradox, as that is the region that emits the most amount of long wave radiation to space

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/rad_balance_ERBE_1987.jpg

As noted in Roy Spencer’s graph there is three times less warming than predicted in the tropics which makes sense as the tropical tropospheric hot spot that CAGW predicts should occur is also not observed.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/TMI-SST-MEI-adj-vs-CMIP5-20N-20S-thru-2015.png

Farmer Ch E retired
June 7, 2019 10:47 am

The park glaciers likely had a growth spurt this year. Record snows & record cold. Flathead Lake just south of GNP froze over completely this winter – first time in 30 years (1989).

Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
June 8, 2019 1:47 am

And it’s less than 3000 ft in altitude !

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Jon P Peterson
June 8, 2019 10:36 am

I am well aware of the low elevation as I learned to fly at the Polson airport on the south end of Flathead Lake (in the early ’70’s).

ResourceGuy
June 7, 2019 11:18 am

2020 is going to be an interesting year for fact checkers in more ways than one.

Phil Nolan
June 7, 2019 12:02 pm

If we could say that the glaciers are not not growing, we would have said so ……

June 7, 2019 12:20 pm

Global Warming, Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, going, going, Gone!

jim heath
June 7, 2019 12:27 pm

I think we need to get back to basics: The question should be “is there intelligent life on Earth?”

Frank
June 7, 2019 2:53 pm

Although I’m willing to believe that the National Park Service has removed overly-alarmist information about the rate at which glaciers are disappearing. We have been presented with no real evidence in this post that the glaciers in the park are growing. For some real evidence, see the pictures at the link below. It is true none of them are dated by month, but a century ago, few people ventured into Glacier National Park when the seasonal snow pack was deep enough to fool us about the extent of a glacier. While some photos are ambiguous, others clearly show that dozens, if not hundreds, of vertical feet of glacier have melted. Look at the Iceberg, Sperry, and Chaney glaciers, for example.

http://www.gettysburgcollegeitt.org/glacierclimate/?page_id=49

Jack Dale
June 7, 2019 3:02 pm

Has anyone bothered to check out Lysander Spooner University which has 4 staff.
http://lysanderspooneruniversity.com/

Frank
Reply to  Jack Dale
June 7, 2019 6:05 pm

Jack: The “university” is a mostly a blog.

Jack Dale
Reply to  Frank
June 7, 2019 9:06 pm

I know.

Jack Dale
June 7, 2019 3:05 pm

From the USGS

In 2017, the USGS published a time series analysis of the glacier margins of the named glaciers of Glacier National Park . The areas measured are from 1966, 1998, 2005 and 2015/2016, marking approximately 50 years of change in glacier area. Scientists used aerial photography and satellite imagery to measure the perimeters of the glaciers in late summer when seasonal snow had melted to reveal the extent of the glacial ice. The data table shows that all glaciers have been reduced in area since 1966 with some glaciers having been reduced by as much as 85% by 2015. The average area reduction over the approximately 50-year period is 39%. Currently, only 26 glaciers are larger than 0.1 square kilometers (25 acres) which is used as a guideline for deciding if bodies of ice are large enough to be considered glaciers.
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock/science/retreat-glaciers-glacier-national-park?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

Jack Dale
June 7, 2019 3:53 pm

For global perspective see the World Glacier Monitoring Service:

Mass balance values for the observation period 2015/16 and 2016/17 will be reported from more than 130 glaciers worldwide. The mass balance statistics (Table 1) are calculated based on all reported values and on available data from the 40 reference glaciers with continued observation series of more than 30 years (Table 2). In addition, preliminary mass balance values are given for 2017/18 for some glaciers.

The average mass balance of the glaciers with available long-term observation series around the world continues to be negative, with tentative figures indicating a further thickness reduction of 1.0 meters water equivalent (m w.e.) during the hydrological year 2016/17. The new data continues the global trend in strong ice loss over the past few decades and brings the cumulative average thickness loss of the reference glaciers since 1980 at almost 20 m w.e.

https://wgms.ch/latest-glacier-mass-balance-data/

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Jack Dale
June 7, 2019 4:39 pm

It will be interesting to see the GNP data for 2018/19 when it becomes available.

Reply to  Jack Dale
June 8, 2019 1:42 am

They don’t include the largest tidewater glaciers that I could see…….

tty
Reply to  Jack Dale
June 9, 2019 1:32 am

In Greenland the large tidewater glaciers are no longer losing mass:

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/polarportal-saesonrapport-2018-EN.pdf

Jack Dale
Reply to  tty
June 9, 2019 6:59 am

From the report.

“During the period 2003-2011 the Ice Sheet
has on average lost 234 Gt every year. This
means that the slight total mass increase
during the last two seasons cannot
compensate for these mass losses.”

The current increase is regarded as unusual.

tty
Reply to  tty
June 11, 2019 2:31 am

What part of “no longer” is it you don’t understand?

Jack Dale
Reply to  tty
June 12, 2019 7:23 pm

What part of “cannot compensate for these mass losses” do you not understand?

June 7, 2019 4:08 pm

I don’t understand what all the fuss is about, so glaciers melt, but wait ,
if we get a slight increase in the temperature, then more evaporation, so more
snow, then the glaciers gets bigger,

The front of the glacier will always melt, but its the snow, or a lack of it ,
which is the factor in its size.

Of more concern is the staff at these National Parks,. Are they all Green

“”Useful idiots”” ?

MJE VK5ELL

Frank
June 7, 2019 4:36 pm

The Lysander Spooner University doesn’t really exist. It lists a faculty of four, one of whom is anonymous and two of whom don’t don’t claim to have college degrees. The “university” is simply the website/blog of Dr. Roger Roots (PhD). The “courses” are merely blog posts or field trips. The Lysander Spooner University Press appears to be a single self-published (via Amazon) book written by Dr. Root

http://lysanderspooneruniversity.com

Dr. Root is a disciple Lysander Spooner, an extreme libertarians and borderline anarchist. His interest in glaciers is likely to be political, not scientific.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Frank
June 7, 2019 10:08 pm

So does that disqualify Spooner from discussing the GNP Gone by 2020 sign removal?

Frank
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
June 12, 2019 1:32 am

Farmer: Spooner died in 1887, so he is disqualified from commenting disappearance of glaciers due to AGW. Dr. Root, who named named his blog Lysander Spooner University, is probably correct in saying that some alarmist information at GNP has been removed.

However, he also claimed (in the video) that one glacier is bigger than it was a century ago. And he made that assertion while claiming to be a university president. I generally respect authoritative sources, but posted links to photos showing his evidence was incorrect. After writing my first comment, I looked into Lysander Spooner “University” and posted what I found out, so others could use it to evaluate Root’s credibility.

I’m not telling you WHAT to think. YOU decide for yourself whether my information (provided with links) disqualifies Root from commenting on removal of signs and on whether glaciers are retreating. There is a great deal of false or misleading information on blogs and elsewhere on the Internet. One can accept everything that agrees with our preconceptions, rendering us incapable of correcting propaganda we have assimilated. Or we can spend a few minutes investigating important new information. Andy hosts lots of dubious scientific posts and claims that readers comments serve as “peer review” to correct wrong information. I’m just doing my part.

Not Outraged
June 7, 2019 7:46 pm

Don’t you think Algore and the other gaslighters should be able to be sued?

Negligence and malpractice and fraud.

EJ
June 7, 2019 8:31 pm

Someone should file a FOIA request on the internal emails of the GNP staff, might be interesting to see what the discussion they had on how to go from spin to lessor spin.
Could be some more climate gate info.

Michael S. Kelly, LS BSA, Ret.
June 7, 2019 10:05 pm

I looked at the display in the video, and couldn’t help thinking: “Is this a National Park for ants?!?! It has to be at least…THREE TIMES this size!!”

MICHAEL F ARKO
June 8, 2019 5:45 am

Why does anyone think these decisions are coming from inside GNP or even NPS? These are political decisions and it is likely this one was made in Washington. The current Administration is generally skeptical of the climate armageddon theory and has pressed to lower rhetoric and increase skepticism in all related government literature — online, in displays, etc. Similarly, the preceding Administration was openly hostile to skeptics and pushed the armageddon narrative aggressively. Neither the previous signage nor the present remodeling necessarily portrays the views of the GNP scientists and regular staff. It’s not up to them, regardless of what they may think.

Editor
June 8, 2019 11:24 am

Logging for posterity:

http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/programs_9.htm is from 2010 and announces the publication of the report “Glacier in Peril” by th Rocky Mountain Climate Organization (not familiar with them) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (yep, the NRDC, not fond of them). The page links to the full report, which includes:

In 2003, Myrna H. P. Hall of the State University of New York, Syracuse, and Daniel B. Fagre of USGS’s Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center projected that human-caused climate change could lead to the elimination of all 45 glaciers in the park’s Blackfoot-Jackson basin. That basin contains 5 of the park’s 37 named glaciers. The glaciers in that basin had been the subject of earlier studies, providing a baseline of historic information to support projections of future changes. Using then-current climate assumptions and models, Hall and Fagre projected that basin temperatures in July and August could be 1.9°F hotter by 2030, compared to 1990. Even that relatively modest temperature increase, they estimated, would overwhelm the effects of a projected slight increase in precipitation, leading by 2030 to the elimination of all remaining glaciers in the basin.

Since Hall and Fagre’s 2003 projection, GNP’s glaciers have melted faster than expected. In October 2007, based on the melting of Blackfoot Glacier, Fagre said, “[W]e’re about eight and a half years ahead of schedule … Our initial projection has proved too conservative. They’re going faster than we thought.” Fagre now says the glaciers in this basin could be gone “perhaps as early as 2020.”

Editor
June 8, 2019 11:44 am

Good old Huffington Post or Huff Post or whatever they call themselves also refer to the impending demise of GNP glaciers.

In 2009 (updated in 2017), https://www.huffpost.com/entry/glacier-less-national-par_b_288762 , Ginna Kelly says (excerpts):

This August I visited Glacier National Park in Montana. The experience was life changing. I am still stunned to have learned the following fact: by 2020, no glaciers will exist in Glacier National Park.

During my stay, I talked with Park Ranger Jim Muhlhausen about why the glaciers are disappearing. The reason is climate change. Jim talked about what he sees on a daily basis. “Its disturbing. You can directly see the effects. The change in vegetation, the reduction in habitat, and the melting of the glaciers.”

The evidence that the glaciers are melting speaks for itself. When the park was founded in 1910, there were 150 glaciers. Today, 25 exist. By 2020, none will exist.

Jim stated that we all have “to go the extra mile” if we are going to slow down the rate of climate change. This includes “recycling, refusing to use bottled water, bringing a bag to the grocery store, and using flourescent lightbulbs.” In the aggregate, these seemingly little choices can make a difference.

I bet it was my switch to LED lighting that saved the glaciers!

Editor
June 8, 2019 12:02 pm

Logging for posterity:

[Note: WordPress may have lost this comment. Or it might show up as a duplicate.]

http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/programs_9.htm is from 2010 and announces the publication of the report “Glacier in Peril” by th Rocky Mountain Climate Organization (not familiar with them) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (yep, the NRDC, not fond of them). The page links to the full report, which includes:

In 2003, Myrna H. P. Hall of the State University of New York, Syracuse, and Daniel B. Fagre of USGS’s Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center projected that human-caused climate change could lead to the elimination of all 45 glaciers in the park’s Blackfoot-Jackson basin. That basin contains 5 of the park’s 37 named glaciers. The glaciers in that basin had been the subject of earlier studies, providing a baseline of historic information to support projections of future changes. Using then-current climate assumptions and models, Hall and Fagre projected that basin temperatures in July and August could be 1.9°F hotter by 2030, compared to 1990. Even that relatively modest temperature increase, they estimated, would overwhelm the effects of a projected slight increase in precipitation, leading by 2030 to the elimination of all remaining glaciers in the basin.

Since Hall and Fagre’s 2003 projection, GNP’s glaciers have melted faster than expected. In October 2007, based on the melting of Blackfoot Glacier, Fagre said, “[W]e’re about eight and a half years ahead of schedule … Our initial projection has proved too conservative. They’re going faster than we thought.” Fagre now says the glaciers in this basin could be gone “perhaps as early as 2020.”