Earth Day: Not a Single Environmental Prediction of the Last 50 Years Has Come True

Nicolas Loris, Bangor Daily News

This Earth Day, it almost feels like we should be carving some turkey. Why? Because we have a lot to be thankful for since the first Earth Day event occurred 49 years ago.

We should be thankful that the gloom-and-doom predictions made throughout the past several decades haven’t come true. Fear-mongering about explosive population growth, food crises and the imminent depletion of natural resources have been a staple of Earth Day events since 1970. And the common thread among them is that they’ve stirred up a lot more emotions than facts.

“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate … that there won’t be any more crude oil,” ecologist Kenneth Watt warned around the time of the first Earth Day event. “You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ’er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” Watt also warned of global cooling and nitrogen buildup rendering all of the planet’s land unusable.

The issue, however, is that present trends do not continue. They change dramatically for a number of reasons. Innovation happens. Consumer behavior changes. Importantly, price signals play a huge role in communicating information to energy producers as well as consumers. Higher prices at the pump encourage companies to extract and supply more oil. Expensive gas prices, meanwhile, motivate entrepreneurs to invest in alternatives to oil, whether that’s batteries, natural-gas vehicles or biofuels. Drivers will examine their consumption options as well, whether carpooling, finding alternative modes of transportation or, over time, purchasing a more fuel-efficient vehicle.

Here we are, 19 years past Watt’s arbitrary deadline, and drivers are pulling up to the pump saying, “Fill ’er up, buddy” (figuratively speaking, as Watts also didn’t foresee self-service stations) without any cause for concern. Thanks to human ingenuity and the entrepreneurial drive of energy producers, the United States is now the world’s largest oil producer, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — and continually breaking records.

While global energy poverty and food insecurity remain a pressing challenge, the problems are getting much better, not worse. World Bank and United Nations data show extreme poverty and global hunger has noticeably droppedsince 1970. And according to the International Energy Agency, the number of people without access to electricity fell to below 1 billion people for the first time.

Clearly, there’s work to be done. But signs are pointing in the right direction.

In the United States, the common perception is that the country’s environmental state is deteriorating. On the contrary, through investment in new technologies, and through legislation, environmental trends have improved significantly in the United States. Pollutants known to cause harm to public health and the environment are declining. According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest air quality trends report, the combined emissions of the six common air pollutants have decreased 73 percent between 1970 and 2017.

We should be thankful for economic liberties that provide people with the means to protect the environment. As a country grows economically, it increases the financial ability of its citizens and businesses to care for the environment and reduce pollutants emitted from industrial growth. Countries with greater economic freedoms have cleaner environments and greater environmental sustainability. The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom and Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index show a highly positive correlation between a country’s environmental performance and its economic freedom.

Freer economies have access to more products and technologies that make our lives healthier and the environment cleaner. For instance, the availability of simple products such as soaps, cleaners and detergents makes our homes dramatically cleaner and healthier. The development of sanitation systems and availability of garbage collection greatly reduce many types of diseases and curb toxins in the air and water.

These products and services may not be what immediately come to mind on Earth Day, but they’ve have an enormous impact on cleaning up the planet.

And we should be thankful for clearly defined and protected private property rights. One of the first lessons I learned in economics is that nobody washes a rental car — because you don’t care for what you don’t own.

Property rights are a central hallmark in the United States and around the world for improved environmental stewardship, conservation and health of species, wildlife, habitats, forests and other resources. The absence of enforced private property rights in developing countries remains one of the largest barriers to improved prosperity and environmental well-being.

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troe
April 22, 2019 9:53 am

Most of us here would ascribe to good conservation practices. That we do not care about the natural environment is a classic straw man set up by our detractors who need easy straw men to knock down. What most of us object to are the abuse and ultimate destruction of the scientific method, free discourse, and the establishment of totalitarianism in the name of… well anything actually. Duane if you are on the side of Extinction Rebellion, Al Gore, Naomi Klein, or are getting down with AOC re-consider your choices. The point of this post is the many, many failed predictions of people who were taken seriously in their time. Why would you defend their extreme positions after the fact.

On a related note I’ve been listening to the audiobook of Mao’s Little Red Book. Many thoughts but one really jumped out. Mao warned that failure to establish socialism would result in revisionism/capitalism. The abandonment of socialism that he warned of did come about after his death. That policy change has lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of abject poverty. See Duane. It’s easy to make you a Maoist.

Leon Brozyna
April 22, 2019 1:07 pm

Earth Day?

Horse feathers !

Happy Dyngus Day ! Whip out them pussy willows and let Anderson Cooper giggle again.

Bruce Cobb
April 22, 2019 2:16 pm

Just in time for Earf Day: Breaking news: Stanford scientists see link between global warming and income inequality.
Just when you think they can’t get any dumber, they do.

JamesP
April 22, 2019 2:23 pm

So I’ve lived in the city I was born in for about 50 out of my nearly 60 years on this planet so far. Like a lot of kids in the sixties I spent a lot of my childhood outside. I’m not out as much now but walk my dogs twice a day year round. The thing is, my personal experience is that the climate here has not changed at all. Sometimes it’s hot, sometimes it’s cold, sometimes there are storms or nice days, but overall nothing seems different than 50+ years ago. I know anecdotes aren’t science and weather is not climate, but I think my experience is common. We read about the crisis of climate change, then go outside and see no crisis. Unless and until that basic reality changes, I think the average person will continue to rank climate change at the bottom of their list of concerns as most polls show, no matter how many IPCC reports and politicians and Hollywood stars claim we must fundamentally change our lives now.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  JamesP
April 23, 2019 7:53 am

All you need do is look at the same data graphed in terms of ACTUAL “degrees,” not “tenths” of A degree, to see how UN-threatening “climate change” in “average temperature” terms really is.

THEN, apply reasonable “error bars” to the temperatures, and you’ll lose sight of any threat.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  AGW is not Science
April 23, 2019 8:13 am

Assuming, of course, that “warming temperatures” compared with the horrible cold climate of the LITTLE ICE AGE is a “threat,” which, of course it isn’t.

Buck Wheaton
April 22, 2019 2:38 pm

Earth Day, as fake as Kwanza.

Juliana Leo
Reply to  Buck Wheaton
April 26, 2019 5:01 am

and Christmas, Easter and Thanksgiving. They are all full of lies that prove people would rather believe in FAIRY TALES than the truth.

Scott Drysdale
Reply to  Juliana Leo
April 26, 2019 8:33 am

Why are you trying to drag an alternate topic into this discussion…..RU having trouble convincing yourself that Christianity is a false religion?

I suspect you made up your mind about it without ever opening and reading any part of the Holy Bible…….

Ignorance is less about being educated but more about believing one’s brain is full with no more room to continue learning….

saveenergy
April 22, 2019 4:36 pm

Earth day !!!!
bugger, I missed it, we were going to have all the lights on to celibrate

oh well next year;… we’ll put 50 lights on for 24hrs

Mike H
April 22, 2019 4:41 pm

Ira Einhorn certainly took drastic steps to reduce his girlfriend’s carbon footprint.

Laura Johnson
April 22, 2019 6:41 pm

Amazing how individuals SELECTIVELY choose WHICH scientists they will believe. It seems to me that any one of the above naysayers about climate change are going to be very quick to accept the diagnosis and treatment of their various physical problems…physical problems which have been solved by scientific research by researchers following exacting protocols. The work of these scientists on the various human maladies have made a huge improvement in their ability to “fix” problems that we humans encounter, whether accidents, diseases, genetic inheritances, or war wounds. It is very interesting that when scientific advances and knowledge make a very personal difference to individuals, they have NO problem accepting those advances. But, when scientific advances, such as actual facts about the melting of the ice in the Antarctic, do not agree with their political beliefs, they have no problem ignoring those scientists and their published facts. I suppose this is one aspect of the “human condition.” And I am not a promoter of Earth Day, or environmentalism, just an observer of our human condition and our real world.

Gray Tranquilla
Reply to  Laura Johnson
April 22, 2019 9:43 pm

“Actual facts about ice in Antartica melting!” What is your source of info….? The low lying west peninsula extends far north to a latitude towards equator and melts each summer while the vast continent freezes with snow ice buildup yearrond closer to the pole and much depends on elevation proximity of seamount volcanoes, cold and warm air and water currents….

Not sure what you are really trying to tell us actually….

AGW is not Science
Reply to  Laura Johnson
April 23, 2019 8:10 am

“But, when scientific advances, such as actual facts about the melting of the ice in the Antarctic, do not agree with their political beliefs, they have no problem ignoring those scientists and their published facts.”

Ice has cycled up and down in the Antarctic over various periods, and they don’t have an actual scientific explanation for any of those changes – plenty of hypothesizing and speculation, but nothing concrete. So where exactly is the “scientific advance?!”

Even if Antarctic ice is melting, that doesn’t mean rising CO2 is the CAUSE of it (nor is “human activity” the “cause” of rising CO2 levels, not “scientifically,” since nobody is taking actual MEASUREMENTS of all of the CO2 sources and sinks). Correlation does not equal causation – one of the most basic foundations of ACTUAL “science.” Or are you a “science denier?”

Reply to  Laura Johnson
April 23, 2019 12:54 pm

Melting glaciers and polar bears make good symbolism. The real story is sea level rise as a threat. The result of melt water minus snow accumulation. The result of that has been 3 millimeter or about 1/8 inch per year for a long time. That’s not very threatening so environmentalists sell the sizzle. I’m a retired chemist and research manager so i feel qualified to comment on what is science. Computer modeling of the climate is at best a speculative hypothesis of what might happen. It is not science in itself. Science is about observation and experiment. If observation bears out the hypothesis then and only then is it science. Given the abysmal record of climate modeling we have right to be skeptical.

Jep
Reply to  MIKE MCHENRY
April 26, 2019 11:52 am

The real “real story” is that despite the never-ending hysteria about melting glaciers, sea level has not significantly change. Sea level has been consistent for many centuries. So I’m not worried.

Here’s another reason you should not worry about sea level rise — Do you think people would buy oceanfront property is they really believed it would be underwater in a few years, or even a few decades?

Abolition Man
April 22, 2019 7:32 pm

Earth Day is one of the high holy days of the radical cult; Progressivism. Like Kwanza and other such celebrations, the purpose is to indoctrinate children, morons and other useful idiots into this fundamentalist religion. Government IS God, bureaucrats are saints and all Progressive politicians are angels. All else are sinners and blasphemers; they must be punished or destroyed utterly. No amount of facts or logic can dissuade the true believers from their beliefs; you are evil for even wanting to question their religion!
Why are American children being taught a state-sponsored religion in our school system?

RoHa
April 23, 2019 12:29 am

The cartoon is more informative than the article.

I was expecting a list of predictions (with references) and proof (with references) that they had failed. That would have been useful.

Graemethecat
Reply to  RoHa
April 23, 2019 6:38 am

Perhaps you could give us an example of a prediction from 1970 which has been fulfilled.

Kevin A
April 23, 2019 9:14 am

How many claims has Greenpeace made and how much have they collected in 50 years?
A page dedicated to tracking this organization would be welcome

April 24, 2019 7:03 pm

Oil crisis 1973, the ‘experts’ predicted there was less than 20 years oil left in the world. Oh, and the same experts predicted that in the year 2000 all computers would stop working, planes would fall out of the sky. Yeah right. Over the last 5million years the world has cooled, warmed up, cooled. 3 million years ago humans were not burning coal, using gas or gasoline. Yet the world got warmer.
Humans have polluted the world but not to the degree the ‘experts’ want us to believe.

Juliana Leo
April 26, 2019 4:59 am

By the way – Who knew we would be PAYING MORE FOR WATER…than a gallon of GAS????

And polluting the oceans with all the plastics involved?

Paul
April 26, 2019 8:07 am

Anthony, I pretty sure copying an entire article except for the last paragraph and then adding a “full story here” link goes way beyond fair use and violates the original authors copyright.

Jep
April 26, 2019 11:15 am

Environmental disaster predictions are something that never seems to go away, like socialism. Despite the failures of these predictions, the same people continue making them. Despite the failure of socialism everywhere, in every form, it lives on and will likely continue after all our lifetimes.

Another thing environment disaster prognosticators and propagators have in common with socialism advocates is the belief they are smarter than everyone else who tried and failed.

Ana
May 3, 2019 7:51 pm

No surprise that a day named for the BD of Marxist Vladimir Lenin would produce any truth. Saddest Birthday April 22.

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