Claim: By design, Australia will have no winter by 2050

From the David Viner School of preposterous predictions, comes this “children just won’t know what winter is” moment. This is climate science done by art designers, no less.


Academics from the School of Art & Design have teamed up with colleagues from the ANU Climate Change Institute on a design project, which takes existing data and communicates the impacts of climate change in a way that people can engage with and better understand.

The resulting new climate tool visualises data which shows by 2050, Australians will no longer enjoy winter as they know it today and will experience a new season the designers are calling “New Summer”.

New Summer represents a period of the year where temperatures will consistently peak in many cases well above 40ºC for a sustained period.

Using the tool, people can click on thousands of locations across Australia to see how the local weather in their home town will change by 2050.

“We looked at the historical average temperatures of each season and compared them to the projected data and what we find everywhere is that there’s really no period of a sustained or lasting winter,” said Dr Geoff Hinchliffe, Senior Lecturer (SOA&D).

“In 30 years’ time winter as we know it will be non-existent. It ceases to be everywhere apart from a few places in Tasmania,” he said.

The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Scientific Information for Land Owners (SILO)* – shows how many degrees the average temperature will rise by in each location and how many more days over 30 or 40 degrees a place will have in 2050 compared with today.

“As well as the data, we also focused on developing the most effective visual forms for conveying how climate change is going to affect specific locations,” said Dr Hinchliffe.

“That meant using colour, shape and size around a dial composition showing a whole year’s worth of temperature values in a single snapshot.

“It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.

“We concentrate on visualisation and storytelling. We don’t want to misrepresent the data or suggest things that aren’t true so the visualisation was instrumental in conveying the data in a way that can be interrogated. “

“It’s like a graph, but more poetic,” said Associate Professor Mitchell Whitelaw.

“The research and innovation here is in the visualisation and compilation of all this data. Our innovation is in the way this existing data is communicated and presented – hopefully in a memorable, engaging way,” he said.

The visual climate tool was prepared for the Australian Conservation Foundation and can be viewed here: https://myclimate.acf.org.a

About the data:

Data extracted from Queensland Government LongPaddock project, which uses the SILO database (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo)  and is operated by the Science Division of the Queensland Department of Environment and Science (DES) with support from the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (DAF). 

The climate ‘change factors’ used to calculate consistent climate scenarios data have been estimated using: Coupled Model Intercomparison Research Program 3 (CMIP3) patterns of change data (projected changes per degree of 21st Century global warming) supplied by the CSIRO and the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre; and data from AR4 SRES scenario temperature response curves (projected amounts of global warming) supplied by the CSIRO. 

These data sources are available in the following locations:

Data modelling:

  • Perturbation method: Linear Mixed Effect State Space (LMESS) – Q5
  • Global warming sensitivity: High
  • IPCC assessment report: AR5
  • Emission scenario: RCP8.5

Climate model: ACCESS 1.3


So who do you trust more for climate predictions? Art designers who think their work is “more poetic”, or run-of-the-mill climate scientists who produce non-poetic data? Is adjusted data more poetic than raw data? Does raw data look more blue than red?

Of course none of these people will be around to verify their work in 2050, or to take the rap for making people scared if it doesn’t happen. -Anthony

h/t to WUWT reader Bert Krawchuk

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91 thoughts on “Claim: By design, Australia will have no winter by 2050

  1. “We looked at the historical average temperatures of each season and compared them to the projected data….”

    They might have considered using observational data instead.

    Oh!…….Right, in Aus it’s one and the same after the overt fiddling with their own records.

    • “projected data…” WTF!?

      Climate model projections are NOT data! It’s an outright lie to misrepresent them as such!
      Especially since the climate model “projections” of what temperatures should be today are more than two standard deviations from actual temperatures. Climate model projections are fantasies. To quote a frequent commenter on this site, RAH:

      “Climate model projections are fantasies that climatologists wish were happening in the real world. They’re not reality, they’re climate porn.”

      • “Data”. From Latin 2nd dec neuter plural = “ givens”. In this case the givens come from the computer and not from Mother Nature. It’s all clear once one finds out the source is not natural. Next step = Garrett Harden’s recommendations?

  2. This gives me a great new idea to cash in on the climate capers –
    how about a new future climate coloring-in book for kids, where the pencils are only pink, red, maroon and purple?

  3. If these ‘scientist’s’ had to maintain insurance like an engineer who has to to ensure their ‘predictions’ are accurate about building safety, I but there would be a lot more caution by academics making wholesale predictions about the temperature of the climate by mid century. Similar damage can be had by people who might plan for this future, only to find it is nothing of the sort by 2050.

  4. From the David Viner School of preposterous predictions, comes this “children just won’t know what winter is” moment. This is climate science done by art designers, no less.
    I love it, our eternal Dr. David Viner. Such “great minds” are ruining this world.

  5. We concentrate on visualisation and storytelling. We don’t want to misrepresent the data or suggest things that aren’t true…

    Talk about two mutually contradictory ideas…no lack of cognitive dissonance here.

  6. All they can do is FIXATE on how to tell the story in a more convincing way so that someone ELSE “does something” and the little people learn their place (and give up luxuries like energy use) and then the weather will be perfect, but until then keep scaring the masses, except the world has hit a tipping point known as climate fatigue and we stopped listening.

  7. Sigma Xi Annual Meeting and Student Research Conference
    Our Changing Global Environment, Scientists and Engineers Designing Solutions for the Future
    November 14–17, 2019, Monona Terrace Convention Center, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
    · Science Communication Track, including sessions on the science of science communication, engaging, and educating the public on environmental issues

    Petroski, Henry. To Forgive Design-Understanding Failure. Harvard University Press. Interesting book, suggests a roughly 30 year movement to failure, coincides with professional life of engineers. No climate or “if we just explain it right” nonsense. I never had a course in the science of science communication.

  8. I cannot believe this nonsense is able to hang on after the last few winters. There must be lots of flouride in the water.

  9. Its is of course merely lucky chance that by 2050 , none of those making these claims will be around to be asked why they got it so very wrong.

  10. It’s now confirmed, 2050 is the new 2020. Those who previously enriched themselves or got a moment of fame with wild claims about the year 2000 have retired to the beaches or passed on.

  11. I blame the rise of the science fiction/fantasy genre. Dream up and publish your own imaginary world. Just make it entertaining.

    • Gary

      I blame the children.

      They should be seen and not heard.

      Now we must adhere to the children’s wishes, despite them not having a clue what they are talking about.

      My (grown up) children laugh when they see school protest ‘strikes’ and chorus “For God’s sake keep them away from Dad, he’ll send them all home with a thick ear”.

    • What is the difference between a science fiction or fantasy universe and the IPCC?

      Fantasy and Science Fiction authors have more believable world building.

  12. It’s ironic that new pseudoscience of the urbanists is made possible by the prosperity generated by real science, and rural resource extraction industries in the case of Australia.

  13. Wouldn’t it be wonderful, if we didn’t know what winter was.

    I have about a hector of shrubs trees & fruit trees around my house paddock in south east Queensland. This year I lost about a dozen 25 year old local native trees & shrubs to the constant frosts. In 26 years I had only lost 2 shrubs to frosts before this year.

    Where the hell is this global warming, I want some.

    • Hasbeen, you are so right. A country without winter? Lead me to it!
      Perhaps we could organise a world referendum. Hands up if you want to be cold and ill for six months every year, or do you prefer warm, slightly less warm and perhaps a bit of wet but warm the rest of the year.
      That’s why the Europeans never had much problem finding people to go and be colonial administrators in the tropics, even though we know they are now all judged to be beastly oppressors.

      • aww be nice a avg aussie winter with a few weeks of cold and frosts gives us our cherries apples quinces etc
        they dont fruit without the cold

    • I live in Central Queensland, in the tropics. I leave every winter to go to southern Europe if I can, because it’s too cold here.

      I hate winter!

    • Has been, unless you were using irrigation on them, maybe the current drought is the cause of your trees & shrubs dying. Never forget that frosts are enabled by low humidity.

  14. My computer model has predicted with 99.9999% certainty that next year I will win the lottery, so I shall immediately purchase a villa, a Maserati and a private jet, and that’s just for starters.

  15. Let them do self portraits and compare them to a real artist, Rembrandt, or Leonardo. Let them look at the Mona Lisa and tell what’s on her mind.

    Because the real artists portraits are looking at them, just like the real climate is.

  16. Based on RCP 8.5 … ’nuff saad.

    More Junk science from the Climate Cargo Cult.
    To paraphrase Lindzen, they might as well believe in magic too.

  17. “The resulting new climate tool visualises data which shows by 2050”

    A) It is not a “climate tool”. It is a pure alarmist pleasure propaganda machine.

    B) A proper tool would allow ‘comparisons’. i.e. where people could input human appeasements toward ‘combating’ climate change, and have the tool immediately show alleged CO₂ reductions and reduce temperatures.

  18. I’m sure this will turn out as well as California legislating their state into a perpetual drought!! (Has anybody checked out the Snotel Narrative for the Sierras lately?)

  19. “The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)…”
    (plus emphasis)
    Well there’s your problem right there!

  20. I sometimes find myself in two minds about the current climate delusion:

    Should I be pleased that we are now so wealthy that we can afford such waste of resources, human time & labour, and such utterly useless “education”?

    Or is it a sign that out current civilization has nearly forgotten the essential principles required for it’s continuation?

  21. Correction.
    “children just won’t know what winter is” should be “children just won’t know what anything is”

  22. “We don’t want to misrepresent the data or suggest things that aren’t true”
    I just ask if modelling of future weather/climate can be concidered true?
    Have they not heard of David Viners prediction. Do they ever learn from history.

  23. ““It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.”

    It is also unbelievable. Given that there will so much “polar amplification” why would anyone believe that somewhere sub-tropical would warm by more than 0.3 or 0.5 degrees if the global temp rises another 0.5?

    I think they should introduce a new math curriculum in Oz just as the Ontario government announced yesterday. The current one, based on unicorns and rainbows, is not working. They can no longer add, it seems.

  24. Looks like they are taking the worst case projections, doubling them, and proclaiming this is the minimum that will happen.

  25. It doesn’t matter what happens in 2050, as the world is supposed to end in 12 years. These forecasters should make their minds up. 😉

  26. The fact that CO2 is a ghg has caused much resistance to the observation that CO2 has little if any effect on climate. It is crucial that the message be made more public that the past warming was contributed to by the rising water vapor which is self-limiting and not CO2. The other contributing factors, solar (SSN are at zero) and ocean cycles are in downtrend.

  27. Art designers using data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) who are famous for heating the present by cooling the past.

  28. It’s as funny as fit! We have a country house in a place called Glen Innes NSW. We routinely get winter lows of -10C.

    These rope-a-dopes are predicting no winter for us!

    The stupid – it burns

  29. Already in Darwin there is no winter. There is a dry season and a wet season. With a growth rate of 2.6 percent per year, Darwin is considered one of the quickest growing regions within Australia. People cannot get enough of this Global Warming Benefit.

  30. “The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)” No doubt that is the BOM’s wonderful fantastic made up fake dopey ACORN 2 “NOT DATA’.

    Garbage in =Garbage out.

    But it seems that artists don’t appreciate this.

    Neither does the ABC here in Oz.

  31. It is sometimes forgotten by the rest of the World just how big Australia really is.
    Its almost as big as the mainland of the USA , and its possible to have snow on the hill of Hobart, capital of the Island State of Tasmania, and to have very hot conditions in the North of the country, such as the cities of Darwin and Cains, both being almost on the Equator.

    This nonsense is known as Artistic license.

    MJE

  32. Canberra?

    If you ever want an example of the detachment from reality the Warmist suffers from this is a good one. They have made their press release about Canberra. Canberra, the city nearly universally agreed that is best viewed via the rearview mirror of a speeding vehicle. They say “Look at future Canberra!” and the rest of Australia sneers back that they don’t even want to look at CURRENT Canberra!

    Not that I criticising the actual project of course. I don’t have a degree in Art Design so clearly would not be qualified to speak on those matters.

  33. I looked at my area, Mount Barker in the Adelaide Hills and compared it to the ‘official’ records at the BOM (subject to change with each iteration of the ACORN adjustments).

    The ‘New Summer’ site claims we will see an increase of 2.7C by 2050 from the current 1960-1990 average of 19.7C.

    The BOM site has mean max records (may not be the same as their average daily maximum) going back to 1871 for Mount Barker. Not all of them are for 30 year periods but I had to take what they offered:
    1871-1887 20.4
    1926-1940 19.6
    1926-1950 19.4
    1931-1960 19.3
    1941-1970 19.3
    1951-1980 19.6
    1961-1990 19.9
    1971-2000 20.1
    1981-2010 20.5 (WOW! We are back to the 1881-1887 mean)

    and Wiki describes Mount Barker thus:

    The Mount Barker district council is the area that experienced the fourth largest growth between 1996 and 2006 in South Australia, with an increase of 3,800 new residents (3% growth per year). Mount Barker is ranked fifth for fastest growth in South Australia.[10] During the last 10 years, many new subdivisions have been developed, such as Martin-Dale and Waterford. During this period, there has also been an economic boom in Mount Barker and a number of additional malls and shopping centres, such as the Adelaide Hills Home-maker Centre, with a Radio Rentals, a Harvey Norman and the new offices for the District Council of Mount Barker. There have also recently been lodged plans for a new shopping centre, which will feature a major department store larger than 4,000 m 2

    Around 10 years ago the state government re-zoned 1,300 hectares (3,200 acres) from farming to residential and there are around a dozen or so new housing developments in progress. The 10,000 population is projected to go to 35,000 and this is well underway.

    UHI much?

    The means from 1871 to 1970 show a cooling trend even though CO2 was increasing. Would we be looking for more CO2 had they run this exercise back then?

    • John I am in Mt Barker as well. The Bureau of Misinformation maintains the actual raw data as well since 1963.

      It would be worthwhile seeing if yu can get your comment published in the local Courier. I have tried & failed.
      Bill

      • My local rag, the Sydney Morning Herald, seems to allow only pro-alarmist posts. Try getting a factual post like the one by John above, won’t pass the gatekeepers.

  34. Have they published their lawyers’s number? I might need to talk a few things over with them when my projected sugar cane crop in the Derwent Valley fails in 2051

  35. The rainbow/unicorn set is at it again. These people get paid to play kids games on the computer and what’s more they can vote in like minded people into power! I think what we are seeing here is a society (the west basically) which is over mature and does not have enough real problems to keep them occupied. Doesn’t history tell us that such societies inevitably go loopy with an anything goes attitude as they inevitably fall? We are becoming the Eloi…from ”The Time Machine” with the Morlocks waiting in the wings.

  36. I predict that in thirty years it will snow in Colorado and they will grow fruit in Florida. In other words, it will be just like it is now.

  37. I this this curious. The prediction is for no Winters by 2050.

    But this morning, on the 14th f March, in this droughty climate, the minimum outside my backdoor was just 7 degrees C. And yesterday it was 6 degrees. Bloody cold for March !

    It feels to me that we are sliding into a long dry cold frosty Winter.

    Why do I say this ?

    Well when its droughty there is far less cloud cover at night. And the surface of the earth rapidly cools making the surface more frost prone.

    By contrast in wet years there is more cloud cover in Winter and the minimum temperatures at night are higher and we get far fewer frosts..

    I suspect our artistic friends in need of a busk or two from publicity, are completely unaware of these basic facts.

    • in Vic wimmera last few nights down to the 6 or slightly higer also
      less hardy locals are already lighting fires;-)
      another warmer spell is expected with nights up to 15 or so and days around 30
      rain would be rather nice about now but not looking hopeful;-(

      what ALL the above inc the idiot ABC one i posted waaaay up higher is?
      ELECTIONS!!!!!! are coming soon and the warmist clusterfks are out in full force

      GETUP are running campaigns to Influence voters yet they? dont get mentioned as iinterfering with politics/elections in spits of very biased goal to do just that

      along with greenpeas and avaaz
      ALL using foriegn money as well
      tsk tsk

  38. “It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.”

    “Visions” can have that effect on people. Reality and fact less so.

  39. In a year with (again) record temperatures in Australia, many days over 40C, continued droughts, an extraordinary new development in terms of fires in Tasmania, capped by a 1 in 300 year monsoon flooding dumped on drought stricken territory, it would be a rash person indeed who would conclude this proposal is completely impossible.

    • Also, 1-in-300 year monsoon floods often fall on 5 & 10-year drought-affected areas. This is just normal weather happening in Australia.

    • What on earth are you talking about with 1 in 300 year monsoon flooding Griff? Can I remind you the First Fleet only rolled up in Botany Bay to settle in 1788 (that’s in NSW Griff) and the locals weren’t exactly forthcoming with their meteorological database of rainfall. They didn’t read or write mate because they had no pens pencils or paper

      It took some time for intrepid types to get up to Queensland with their rain gauges tucked under their arms knowing the current doomsdayers would be hanging out for their results. No Griff they weren’t driving EVs at the time so it took quite a while just like we only had a reasonable Stevenson Screen rollout to measure temperature and the like for the whole continent around 1910. No recess or lunchtime for you while you stay in and tackle your long overdue history assignment.

    • Sport, if you lived through 60 odd Aussie summers, in various parts of this vast continent, you would understand the very concept of weather variability. Temp in Melbourne can drop from. 40c to 25c inside 30 minutes. Alice Springs can record a fail max over 45c with a min below 0 same day. Let the BoM destroy inconvenient 100 year records, they are only represent a pimple on a pumpkin. Let them fiddle with the “averages” This is a land of burning droughts and flooding rains. True Aussies just roll up the sleeves and get on with it whatever the weather throws at us.

  40. I just noticed that they’ve shrunk the zero point. It doesn’t start at 0 degrees at the innermost point of the circle, but is substantially higher than that. Yet another little piece of scientific fraud being perpetrated by the proponents of CAGW.

  41. this is snipped from a greepeas email i just got for the kids climate protest
    (i get their mails to see what theyre up to)
    [All of NSW is suffering from complete (yes – that’s 100%!) drought, and it is devastating farming communities. Flash flooding is creating absolute chaos in Northern QLD. Catastrophic bushfires are threatening people’s homes in Tasmania. Heatwaves are sweeping the nation from all over. And half of the Great Barrier Reef – our country’s pride and joy – is dead.]

    nsw is copping terrific storms flash flooding etc as i read tonights news
    note the utter bullshit about the reef?

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