Evidence Mounts Against Climate Prediction That Inspired ‘Day After Tomorrow’ Disaster Flick

From The Daily Caller

Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor

  • New evidence suggests climate model predictions are way off when it comes to the Gulf Stream.
  • Scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and plunge temperatures.
  • However, observational data contradicts this alarming prediction and suggests climate models are wrong.

New evidence casts further doubt on model-based predictions that global warming could halt the Gulf Stream currents as part of an alarming scenario that inspired the 2004 disaster film, “The Day After Tomorrow.”

For years, scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and foment extreme weather and raise sea levels from North America to Europe. That prediction is based on climate models that, the new study found, may be analyzing the wrong thing.

“Some of these models are producing five times the amount of Labrador Sea water they should be producing, based on observations,” lead author Susan Lozier, a professor at Duke University, told The Washington Post Friday.

Lozier’s study found that climate models overestimate the role of the Labrador Sea west of Greenland in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The study found the Nordic Sea east of Greenland played a dominant role in the AMOC.

Lozier led an international effort to measure AMOC in the North Atlantic. Scientists from 16 organizations launched the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) in 2014, and now released data collected during the first 21 months of operations. (RELATED: Bizarre Theory Linking Global Warming To ‘Polar Vortexes’ Resurfaces. Scientists Are Pushing Back)


Jake Gyllenhaal (L) and Emmy Rossum, cast members in the motion picture ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ pose during a photocall in Berlin May 5, 2004. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch.

Some researchers cautioned that 21 months of data is too sparse to draw firm conclusions, but that, if these results hold, it would be a dramatic change in our understanding of how the AMOC works.

Observational data is available for the Gulf Stream closer to the U.S., which brings warm water north. A 2014 study examining actual measurements taken off the U.S. coast found “absolutely no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down,” its lead author said.

The AMOC is like a conveyor belt that brings warm, salty water north towards Greenland where it’s mixed with fresher cold water. As the water cools, it sinks and influences the climate and regional weather patterns.

Polar ice melt and enhanced rainfall is putting more cold, fresher water into the Labrador Sea, reducing salinity and disrupting the key current, some scientists say. Climate models generally predict warming will weaken the AMOC, but observational evidence has been scant.

Indeed, a 2018 study claimed of a “tipping point” in the coming decades whereby the AMOC could shutdown completely. That study analyzed sea surface temperatures since the mid-19th Century, but did not collect any field data on the AMOC.

“The specific trend pattern we found in measurements looks exactly like what is predicted by computer simulations as a result of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream System, and I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the 2018 study’s authors, said in a statement last year.

Former U.S. Vice President Gore attends a screening for "An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power" in Los Angeles

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore attends a screening for “An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power” in Los Angeles, California, U.S., July 25, 2017. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni.

A second 2018 study used proxy data, not observational evidence, to claim the AMOC had become “anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so” in comparison to the previous 1,500 years.

Former Vice President Al Gore featured that prediction in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth,” and it also formed the premise of the 2004 blockbuster disaster film “The Day after Tomorrow.”

However, many scientists were skeptical of the studies since neither relied on observational evidence. Lozier’s study provides further evidence that climate models may be wrong on more than just temperature rise.

“I think that’s one big take-home message from our study, is that these previous papers that have discussed that are almost like barking up the wrong tree,” Bob Pickart, an oceanographer and a co-author of the study, told ScienceNews.

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February 2, 2019 6:32 am

This fear has been borrowed from the younger dryas without the evidence of a correspondence between the YD and AGW.


Reply to  Chaamjamal
February 2, 2019 8:16 am

It is tempting to think the world was the same then. In fact, the sea level was around 40 m shallower. link Ocean currents will have been different.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  commieBob
February 2, 2019 12:08 pm

Bering Strait would have been ~15 m deep then (55 m now at lowest point).

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
February 2, 2019 12:21 pm

Make that 15 m plus or minus tectonic activity, post-glacial rebound, erosion, sedimentation, etc.

Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
February 2, 2019 3:36 pm

Psst: AMOC = Atlantic. Last time I looked Bering Str. was in North Pacific, not the Atlantic.

Ocean gyres, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, are a result of the Coriolis Force, that is not going to “slow down” until the Earth stops spinning.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
February 2, 2019 5:20 pm

Greg – Thanks.
Here’s an intersting fact about Bering Strait – flow’s would have been different at -40 m sea level.
“Oceans are interconnected systems. The water flowing through Bering Strait is the only connection between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. “That current is enormous. It’s like having 50 or 100 Missippippi Rivers flowing northward between the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea,” said Danielson.”

Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
February 2, 2019 6:58 pm

Until about 11,000 years ago there was a land called Beringia connecting Asia and North America.

February 2, 2019 6:51 am

Unless this evidence is disseminated by the MSM it won’t matter one jot. The AGW scammers will continue to prosper.

Recently the tv news networks have told us both the melting Antarctica and the polar vortex are caused by climate change with the inference that it is man-made. Nobody is allowed or invited to contradict this disinformation.

Reply to  leitmotif
February 2, 2019 8:10 am

This theory is already dead, what killed it was the fact that “The Day After Tomorrow” was so craptastically bad that no one will dare to admit having anything to do with that idea anymore.

It was good proof that you can’t even write a bad movie on the topic of “ohmygod! Last July the high temperature in Norway was 68 degrees, but this year its 70! We’re all going to die!!!!”

Reply to  wws
February 2, 2019 4:13 pm

I remember sitting on the porch of our lake camp here in Maine 20 years ago and listening to a breathless NPR story about the inevitable cessation of the North Atlantic Conveyor. I was concerned because I had yet to question global warming.

Then I spent five minutes on the Internet and found out that global warming is, well, stupid.

So we bought a place on the ocean.

John Endicott
Reply to  MiloCrabtree
February 4, 2019 9:29 am

MiloCrabtree, that’s how many a skeptic was born: hearing the alarmist BS then looking it up for themselves. Having lived through the coming ice age propaganda of the 1970s I was immediately skeptical of global warming when it appeared on the scene in the 1980s. While the temps were in opposite direction the cause (it’s man’s fault) the solution (de-industrializing the modern world) and many of the players (Stephen Schneider for example) were the same.

John Endicott
Reply to  John Endicott
February 4, 2019 9:32 am

So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have….Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. – Stephen Schneider

Bill Powers
Reply to  leitmotif
February 2, 2019 8:14 am

And therein lies the real problem of CAGW. It is because of the media that computer models programmed by agenda driven confirmation bias stand as proof.

The media has given us the inane concepts of “settled science’ beyond debate and voting majorities of unidentified voters as proof of their propaganda. Refused to accept and be banished: branded, vilified and outcast.

So long as propagandists are supported by a socialist education system these falsehoods flourish within the minds of the under-educated populous. So the question becomes who are the masterminds controlling the bureaucracy and the media that are behind this deception to garner more power and control over the masses. Their power is corrupt absolutely.

February 2, 2019 6:55 am

What the 2018 climate assessments say about the Gulf Stream System slowdown As usual, S. Rahmstorf in front, following his personal agenda in AMOC slow down.
Also often refuted as presented 😀

R Shearer
February 2, 2019 6:56 am

One off topic observation, doesn’t Al Gore look more and more like Mao Zedong and Josef Stalin every day?

Snarling Dolphin
Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 7:08 am

Lol. There’s no denying that!

Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 7:12 am

great observation. We have tp photo shop him into a Mao suit.

Joel O’Bryan
Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 7:25 am

We dodged a massive bullet to the head in 2000 with the defeat of Gore.

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
February 2, 2019 7:38 am

Joel: Actually, had Gore won the election, he would have inherited 9/11 and the stock market crash. It would have been impossible for him to avoid responsibility for these events, and he would have become an ignominious one term president.

Reply to  Tom
February 2, 2019 7:42 am

Being nothing if not persistent he achieved ignominy just the same

Reply to  troe
February 2, 2019 3:53 pm

Gore has a vendetta against the oil men for “stealing” HIS presidency. That is what has been driving him in his crusade against fossil fuels for the last 20 years.

The left has been behind him in his seeking vengeance. This is the same failure to accept defeat that re-emerged on steroids when HRC managed loose a pre-arranged shoo-in to the White House.

Reply to  Tom
February 2, 2019 9:00 am

Regarding 9/11 and the market crash, the media would have done what they always do. Find a way to blame it on Republicans, then repeat the lie over and over again until it became common wisdom.

Reply to  MarkW
February 2, 2019 9:22 am

MarkW: If the media are as powerful as you seem to believe, how did Trump get elected?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
February 2, 2019 10:47 am

The Clinton-Gore Recession started in March of 2000. That was a presidential electon year and George W. Bush was running agsinst Al Gore and during the summer, as it got closer to the election in November and it had become apparent to everyone that the economy was heading down, and Clinton and Gore started blaming the economic downturn on Bush because of course, Bush had been pointing out the turndown, so Clinton and Gore said Bush was “Talking Down the Economy” and that was why stocks were taking a beating.

Tom: “If the media are as powerful as you seem to believe, how did Trump get elected?”

Trump got elected despite the Leftwing Media because people are more aware of the propaganda aspects of the Media now than they were during the Clinton administration. The Silent Majority spoke out in 2016 and elected Trump. But don’t underestimate the Leftwing News Media. They almost managed to get Hillary Clinton elected. They have fooled millions of people into voting against their own interests.

Just think what Trump could accomplish with a fawning news media like Obama had. Or even a neutral media. Instead, Trump has the most politically-motivated news media in history actively seeking to get him removed from Office because Trump represents a threat to the socialist vision of the future.

But their attacks on Trump have awakened a lot of people to what is really going on and who is telling lies and who is not, and I have heard more than one Democrat voter lately tell me they were never going to vote for the Democrats again after watching the partisan political displays against Trump. Trump is exposing the Leftwing press for the partisan liars they really are.

Trump got 63 million votes in 2016. I bet he would get 73 million today. Maybe more when 2020 comes around and that Big Beautiful Border Wall is standing there. Reagan got 49 states his second term. Trump, no doubt, is going for all 50.

In a rational world it would be no contest for Trump. The man is phenomenal, but the haters can’t see through their hate.

I saw where North Carolina’s Democrat governor is in trouble for being in a college picture where two people are shown, one in blackface and one wearing a KKK hat and outfit, and the reporter said there was some confusion as to which person was the governor. And I thought to myself, there can be no doubt, the Democrat governor is the one wearing the Klan outfit. He’s a democrat. I couldn’t help myself saying that.

The Democrat Party: The Party of the Klan and the Party of Death.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  MarkW
February 2, 2019 11:24 am

Tom Abbott,
Not North Carolina’s governor. Virginia’s governor. Given the current state of Ientity Politics in the Democratic Party, their Virginia Democratic Party governor probably will have to resign. A matter of when, not if.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
February 2, 2019 5:49 pm

“Not North Carolina’s governor. Virginia’s governor.”


John Endicott
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2019 8:56 am

Reagan got 49 states his second term. Trump, no doubt, is going for all 50.

Tom, be that as it may, there’s no way Trump can ever win California. The left-wing nuts have take over there. Hillary’s “win of the popular vote” comes entirely from the difference in the Cali vote. Trump’s total for the other 49 states was larger than Hillary’s, it’s only when you add in the total from Cali that Trump loses the popular vote (not that it matters, as he won where it counts: The electoral college). The point is, (as Reagan once observed about the democrat leadership), Cali has gone so far left it’s left the country.

John Endicott
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2019 9:14 am

Democrat governor is in trouble for being in a college picture where two people are shown, one in blackface and one wearing a KKK hat and outfit, and the reporter said there was some confusion as to which person was the governor. And I thought to myself, there can be no doubt, the Democrat governor is the one wearing the Klan outfit. He’s a democrat. I couldn’t help myself saying that.

Indeed, My thoughts exactly Tom. What the young kids today don’t know (and which the leftwing media tries to ignore) is the historical fact that the Klan was started by the Democrat party and it’s not just the blacks that the Klan use to lynch, it was white Republicans as well. An estimated 3,446 blacks and 1,297 whites died at the end of KKK ropes from 1882 to 1964. When assaulted by Klansmen, African Americans would be required to promise not to vote the Republican ticket, and threatened with death if they broke their promises.

1) the first grand wizard of the KKK (Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest) was honored at the 1868 Democratic National Convention

2) no Democrats (either in the House or the Senate) voted for the 14th Amendment to grant citizenship to former slaves.

3) in 1957 President Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, deployed the 82nd Airborne Division to desegregate the Little Rock, Ark., schools over the resistance of Democrat Gov. Orval Faubus.

4) Eisenhower signed the GOP’s 1960 Civil Rights Act after it survived a five-day, five-hour filibuster by 18 Senate Democrats, and in 1964, Democrat President Lyndon Johnson signed the 1964 Civil Rights Act after former Klansman Robert Byrd’s 14-hour filibuster, and the votes of 22 other Senate Democrats, including Tennessee’s Al Gore Sr., failed to scuttle the plan.

5) In 1960, Mississippi Democratic Gov. Hugh White had requested Christian evangelist Billy Graham segregate his crusades, something Graham refused to do. And when South Carolina Democratic Gov. George Timmerman learned Billy Graham had invited African Americans to a Reformation Rally at the state Capitol, he promptly denied use of the facilities to the evangelist

6) Democrat Senator Robert Byrd once wrote that, “The Klan is needed today as never before and I am anxious to see its rebirth here in West Virginia”

7) It was Republicans who appointed the first black Air Force and Army four-star generals, established Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday as a national holiday, and named the first black national-security adviser and secretary of state

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Tom
February 2, 2019 10:58 am

Beyond the probability that 9/11 would still likely have happened, the rest is certainly unknown. The US response into Taliban-held Afghanistan against UBL/AQ would have been different under Al Gore. Iraq War 2003 would never have happened and Saddam would probably still be murdering his people and threatening the region. Who knows then how Iran would have evolved.

Obama’s run in 2008 would certainly been different if Americans were soured to Democrats after a long Clinton-Gore run. Hillary, Joe Biden, and Heinz Ketchup-Kerry would still have been in play in presidential politics as unknowns factors.
The US real estate market that got overheated with sub-prime loans, and the economy with it, can be directly tied to Democrats taking the House of Representatives in 2002 and Congressman Barney Frank’s (D-MA) role as Banking Committee chairman in loosening mortgage lending standards. Frank unwisely turned FannieMae and FreddieMac loose with the tax payer’s money at stake, while establishment Republican President GW Bush went along with it because he needed their support for his wars.

No, the only thing we can be sure of is: if 2000 had seen GW Bush lose, then a President Al Gore certainly wouldn’t have gotten into foreign wars or let terrorist attacks de-rail his disastrous climate control agenda based on the Cargo Cult of climate models. A President Al Gore would have made Obama’s climate agenda look tame in comparison. You gotta realize the whole IPCC Third AR in 1999-2000 was the set-up that Al was supposed to take the football and run with it.

You further gotta realize that the Democrats and their activist’s pseudoscientists like James Hansen thought they had the plan laid out. They knew from about 1980 onwards they probably had 35 year climate warming window to run the Climate Hustle before the weather turned cold again. (It was the only way the 1920-1945 warming could be explained — internal climate cycles.) Al Gore was supposed to be elected in 2000 and seal western capitalism’s fate to climate regulations and elimination of coal and oil exploration. And remember they all also firmly believed that Peak Oil was going to happen anyday, so it was an easy sell to America as oil prices were supposed to go sky high by the end of 2010 decade. No in the 1990’s foresaw China’s rapid industrialization and ramp-up of coal buring-CO2 emissions.

So from the perspective of someone sitting back in the Fall of 2000 as Gore and Bush were campaigning, there were 3 Black Swans no one could foresee (by definition of what is a Black Swan event).
1. The enormous shock of the 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks. And how that would play out in the Middle East/Persian Gulf power plays.
2. The universally expected Peak Oil of the early 21st Century would never happen, as tight oil and tight gas materialized in the energy markets due to the frack-horizontal drilling revolution by the end of 2010.
3. The rise of China as a global industrial power and the ramp-up of its emissions that would make running the CO2-throttling climate hustle unachievable before the 35 year clock ran out on the warming phase of the climate cycle.

There are certainly Black Swans still to come in the coming decades. My 3 areas for Black Swans to come from:
-Russian military adventurism in the Baltic states under the Imperial Dictator Putin likely one Black Swan card still out there.
– China’s desire to bring Taiwan to heel and then control the South China Sea lanes, thus furthering their long-term goal of bringing the energy and mineral resources of the region (including northwest Australia’s coal, gas, iron, and uranium reserves) into its firm control.
– Iran and Saudi Arabia going into a full-on military confrontation (maybe nuclear, and drags Israel into it via Iran’s proxy the Syrian Hezbollah) that shuts down Persian Gulf oil.

The only thing we can be sure of is the climate is going be okay. And weather will happen.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 2, 2019 6:48 pm

Correction. North-wesr Australia has no known uranium resources worth an invasion effort. It has iron ore diamond and natural gas resources. Geoff

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 2, 2019 7:44 pm

Thanks Geoff.

Where are Australia’s uranium deposits? I’ve read you have them. It’s a big continent I realize.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 3, 2019 8:58 am

Joel, after 9/11 the Democrats were as eager for war as were the Republicans.

John Endicott
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 4, 2019 9:24 am

Even before 9/11 Democrats were beating the hawk drums. Just a few (out of many) examples:

“If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.” President Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998

“[W]e urge you, after consulting with Congress, and consistent with the U.S. Constitution and laws, to take necessary actions (including, if appropriate, air and missile strikes on suspect Iraqi sites) to respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq’s refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs.” Letter to President Clinton, signed by Senators Carl Levin, Tom Daschle, John Kerry, and others Oct. 9, 1998

“Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process.” Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), Dec. 16, 1998

Bill Powers
Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 8:16 am

Funny, I was going to say more like a fat POS but Mao works. tomatoe/tomato.

Curious George
Reply to  Bill Powers
February 2, 2019 9:40 am

He looks rather prosperous.

Reply to  Curious George
February 2, 2019 9:52 am

Yup. Mao never missed a meal or a young actress

John Endicott
Reply to  troe
February 5, 2019 5:43 am

And Al never missed a meal or a masseuse

Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 8:20 am

That’s not a photo of the real Al Gore,
it’s a photo of a wax model in a climate change museum.

The real Al Gore has put on some weight
and became a professional wrestler,
going by the moniker Al “The Blimp” Gore.

Reply to  Richard Greene
February 2, 2019 9:01 am

The bane of masseuses everywhere.

February 2, 2019 7:09 am

And yet school children were made to watch Gore’s big baloney show in science indoctrination classes. Riddled with errors, wild speculation, and time debunked predictions this morose sentiment was sold to the kiddies and their parents as fact.

Unfortunately back at the time of it’s release I witnessed an extended family gather around for a screening of this stomach churning slop. They were good folks trying to understand what seemed to be an important issue. When it was over the father looked at me and said “at some point we have to believe the science” Knowing him to be anti all things clerical I reminded him gently that his statement sounded ironically religious.

Of a long list of indiscretions against their fellow citizens committed by the green Moonies of our time one of the worst is taking advantage of good people.

William Astley
February 2, 2019 7:14 am

Urban Legend alert.

Climate science is chock full of urban legends. Urban legend theories are theories (mechanisms) which are repeated when there is obvious data and logic that supports the assertion that the theories in question are completely incorrect, not part of the solution.

0) The Younger Dryas’s melt pulse occurred 1000 years before the YD event. There is no change in climate observed at that time. That fact is on of a dozen observations and analysis results the supports the assertion that the melt pulse mechanism is an urban legend.

1) There is no discrete deep water thermal haline current to interrupt
The global or North Atlantic discrete thermal halone ocean conveyor theory has been proven incorrect by ocean float data. The discrete thermal halone conveyor started with a picture that Wally Broeker drew without proof. Ocean float data shows only 8% of the flow in the North Atlantic fallows the Broeker conveyor path. As there is no discrete flow path to interrupt changes in the fresh water flow into the North Atlantic cannot interrupt the North Atlantic drift current and changes in the North Atlantic drift current do not affect ocean current flow in the Southern Hemisphere.

2) Even if there was a discrete current to interrupt, the magnitude of the temperature change caused by a complete stoppage of the North Atlantic drift current is a factor of 5 two small to explain the Younger Dryas cooling.

Basic analysis shows the heat transferred by the North Atlantic drift current is three times less than the heat that is transfer from summer warming of the North Atlantic ocean. A complete interruption to the North Atlantic drift current therefore cannot cause the cyclic warming and cooling of Europe and Greenland Ice sheet.

3. The warming and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere is simultaneous with the warming and cooling in the North hemisphere. If ocean currents where the cause of the warming there would be roughly a 1000 year lag.


Cold Water Ocean Circulation Doesn’t Work As Expected

The familiar model of Atlantic ocean currents that shows a discrete “conveyor belt” of deep, cold water flowing southward from the Labrador Sea is probably all wet.

A 50-year-old model of ocean currents had shown this southbound subsurface flow of cold water forming a continuous loop with the familiar northbound flow of warm water on the surface, called the Gulf Stream.
“Everybody always thought this deep flow operated like a conveyor belt, but what we are saying is that concept doesn’t hold anymore,” said Duke oceanographer Susan Lozier. “So it’s going to be more difficult to measure these climate change signals in the deep ocean.”

The question is how do these climate change signals get spread further south? Oceanographers long thought all this Labrador seawater moved south along what is called the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), which hugs the eastern North American continental shelf all the way to near Florida and then continues further south.
But studies in the 1990s using submersible floats that followed underwater currents “showed little evidence of southbound export of Labrador sea water within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC),” said the new Nature report.
Scientists challenged those earlier studies, however, in part because the floats had to return to the surface to report their positions and observations to satellite receivers. That meant the floats’ data could have been “biased by upper ocean currents when they periodically ascended,” the report added.
To address those criticisms, Lozier and Bower launched 76 special Range and Fixing of Sound floats into the current south of the Labrador Sea between 2003 and 2006. Those “RAFOS” floats could stay submerged at 700 or 1,500 meters depth and still communicate their data for a range of about 1,000 kilometers using a network of special low frequency and amplitude seismic signals.
But only 8 percent of the RAFOS floats’ followed the conveyor belt of the Deep Western Boundary Current, according to the Nature report. About 75 percent of them “escaped” that coast-hugging deep underwater pathway and instead drifted into the open ocean by the time they rounded the southern tail of the Grand Banks.
Eight percent “is a remarkably low number in light of the expectation that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for Labrador Sea Water,” the researchers wrote.
Studies led by Lozier and other researchers had previously suggested cold northern waters might follow such “interior pathways” rather than the conveyor belt in route to subtropical regions of the North Atlantic. But “these float tracks offer the first evidence of the dominance of this pathway compared to the DWBC.”


The Source of Europe’s Mild Climate
The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth

If you grow up in England, as I did, a few items of unquestioned wisdom are passed down to you from the preceding generation. Along with stories of a plucky island race with a glorious past and the benefits of drinking unbelievable quantities of milky tea, you will be told that England is blessed with its pleasant climate courtesy of the Gulf Stream, that huge current of warm water that flows northeast across the Atlantic from its source in the Gulf of Mexico. That the Gulf Stream is responsible for Europe’s mild winters is widely known and accepted, but, as I will show, it is nothing more than the earth-science equivalent of an urban legend.


HD Hoese
Reply to  William Astley
February 2, 2019 8:24 am

from Seager, et al., “We are still a long way from knowing the seasonal and latitudinal and longitudinal distribution of ocean heat- flux convergence accurately because our knowledge of the surface fluxes and the seasonal changes in ocean heat storage is incomplete.”

I live in a near dominant maritime climate in Texas which shows up in the vegetation, but significant continental effects come and go. I read the American Scientist article, couldn’t get it now online, and have a copy of Maury which I will check. Always like to see more data because the ocean and atmosphere are so often out of sync. Gulf stream loses lots of heat.

William Astley
Reply to  HD Hoese
February 2, 2019 9:43 am

This is a link to Seager’s article which I would highly recommend.

Wally Broeker started the urban legend with a suggestion in that cyclic Heinrich events might have something to do with than interruption to the North Atlantic Drift current.

As Seager’s analysis shows Wally’s theory is not correct. A complete stoppage of the Gulf Stream which becomes the North Atlantic drift current would only have a minor effect on winter temperatures on the west coast of Europe.

The reason for the west coast of Europe’s mild winter is the heat that is absorbed by the Atlantic ocean in the summer and the Rossby wave that is created by the Rocky Mountains.

The prevailing winds are from the west.

The same phenomena explains why the west coast of the US is some much warmer in the winter than the east coast of the US.


The Source of Europe’s Mild Climate
The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth

Reply to  William Astley
February 2, 2019 8:53 am

Er…The North Atlantic Deep Water is definitely down there together with the Antarctic Bottom Water. It has to come from somewhere. Though I agree that we are woefully ignorant about the details of the circulation in the deep ocean.

Alan Tomalty
Reply to  William Astley
February 2, 2019 9:01 am

This number 8 is turning out to be a lucky number for global warming skeptics. 8% is the amount of upward LWIR that is supposed to be absorbed by CO2. The other 92% is the wrong wavelength for CO2 absorption bands. That inconvenient truth is always ignored by alarmists who would have us believe that 1 molecule of CO2 can heat up 2450 other molecules of N2 and O2 by absorbing and reemitting only 8% of the total upward LWIR.

February 2, 2019 7:21 am

Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns

European readers should be reassured that the Gulf Stream’s existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth’s rotation, or both.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
February 2, 2019 9:04 am

Even if the Gulf Stream were to stop Europe would still benefit greatly from having a downwind ocean, one which gets warm in summer and retains a lot of that heat through winter.

February 2, 2019 7:27 am

and I just came across this

but their slant is…different
its all woe n gloom
theyre also running the great tit -brain eating killers story
and a ripper(not) on how little wilderness is left
if you can stomach reading em

February 2, 2019 7:56 am

Not only bad science. Also bad movie.

The “conveyor-belt shutdown” hypothesis was the brain-child of Wallace Broeker. It is still defended by Richard Alley, supposed expert in abrupt climate change.

The problem is that naughty climate-scientists receive undue attention when they misbehave with their hypotheses. Bad behavior shouldn’t be rewarded or it becomes a bad character trait.

February 2, 2019 8:05 am

Stefan Rahmstorf – THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW – some comments on the movie

The film shows a disastrous and abrupt climate change. Due to man-made global warming, first the Larsen B ice shelf breaks up (this did happen in the real world, see animation of satellite images – allegedly only after the authors had written it into the film). This event is used to introduce the main paleo-climatologist character, Jack Hall, who is drilling out there and narrowly escapes.

PIK seems to be very impressed by the film, offering more stuff about:
Interview with Rahmstorf about
Climate Change à la Hollywood

Reply to  Krishna Gans
February 2, 2019 8:11 am

some comments on the movie:

laughably bad
horribly bad
unbelievably bad
nonsensically bad

Reply to  Krishna Gans
February 2, 2019 8:22 am

Bette way to type the link to Interview with Rahmstorf about “The day after Tomorrow
Sorry, had to translate the link (%2b to “+”)
Unfortunately the scanned paper is in German only 🙁

February 2, 2019 8:11 am

Okay, okay, okay! If you bother looking at REAL geology and REAL tangible evidence, like erratics in the middle of a wheat field, and scouring marks on some of the boulders in New York City’s Central Park, then you know that something happened to make those marks. The Kettle Moraine in Wisconsin is called that because the exposed rocks are full of pockets that look like they’ve been drilled by something, and they have: rocks on the bottoms of moving glaciers do that: scour holes in softer rocks below them. Maybe it’s a survival instinct thing for rocks.

Geology tells you, IF you bother to look at it, that multiple layers of drift are the debris from glaciers AFTER they melt back. This alone tells you that ice fields come and go, as do warming and cooling periods, and we simple humans haven’t been around long enough to cause any of that. In fact, we’re lucky to even have survived the last warm period.

These idiotic modeling episodes aren’t even good guesses, especially if they do NOT use collected data. I have said before that I am tired of seeing money wasted on this nonsense just to grab some public notice and try to scare everyone they see into “joining the hivemind”.

If anyone will NOT survive an ice age, which will happen whether they like it or not, it will be these desk jockey number crunchers living on soy lattes and radish roots. In a real ice age, commercial deliveries of foodstuffs and all that twaddle that they just take for granted will be gone. Period. And they can (bad words here) for all I care.

The rest of us will be out hunting the beef cattle that got loose and have grown woolly coats and gone wild.
Anyone up for a slice of roast beast? I also cook.

February 2, 2019 8:16 am

If there was a dramatic cooling due to the melt water at the end of the last ice age, it can’t be comparable to the small amounts of melt water now. Wasn’t it supposed to be the draining of Lake Agassiz plus massive numbers of icebergs going with it? Followed by the melting of much of the remaining ice caps.

Also, didn’t we hear recently that there was a meteorite impact in Canada? If it took those two events to cool the planet, a little melting now, with or without changes in the AMOC shouldn’t have that much effect. Unless warming, melting, slowing conveyor and cooling is a regular occurence? One might say ‘natural’.

R Shearer
February 2, 2019 8:20 am

Not to worry, Andre Rossi is back with his ECAT SK to save the world. LOL, his system uses a $40 scale from Amazon but his demonstration is so professional, how can one not believe?

Reply to  R Shearer
February 2, 2019 9:50 am

I agree with your comment, also the scribbled calculation helped.
However the man now has 20kW commercial units for sale now.
They have a delivery time or 3months.
I would like to have faith that this is true.
We will see in six moths (July) whether, this is all true ( I do Hope So).

R Shearer
Reply to  Twobob
February 2, 2019 1:43 pm

This particular scam of his has been going on for 8 or 9 years. I think his first scam was 30 some years ago. There is no reason his scamming has to end in some defined time frame as there are still suckers to be fleeced.

Ulric Lyons
February 2, 2019 8:45 am

Increased climate forcing drives a colder AMO, that means less Greenland melt. The AMO is normally warmer during centennial solar minima.
comment image

February 2, 2019 9:18 am

Duh. Anyone w/half a brain would know there’s not enough fresh water available now that could possibly melt and effect the Gulf Stream like there was during the end of the last glacial-age.

February 2, 2019 9:24 am

“Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
The article also noted that Maslowski’s group, frequently cited by Gore, often makes predictions that are more aggressive than their peers:
Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at NASA and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.”

Al Gore who switched majors from Religion to Government making an appeal to authority. Authority based on computer modelling that observation has falsified.

Reply to  troe
February 2, 2019 9:42 am

actual polar ice extend, seems not to disappear

February 2, 2019 9:26 am

Ocean currents are driven by the wind. This can by readily seen by examining Pilot Charts.

If you have never seen a pilot chart, they can be readily found on the web. Unlike nautical charts that show ocean depth, Pilot Charts show the monthly ocean climate.

Pilot charts are used for making ocean passages, to try and maximize favorable winds and currents.

One way to validate climate models would be to compare their output to the Pilot Charts, to see if they match.

I expect most climate models would fail miserably at recreating the pilot charts, which would quickly establish that they are not fit for purpose.

February 2, 2019 9:35 am

Here is a desriotion of what pilot charts include:

Pilot charts depict in some detail the prevailing weather patterns including: wind directions and speeds, wave heights, ocean currents, visibility, barometric pressures, sea surface temperatures, and ice limits to be found in the areas covered for each month of the year.

All information is presented graphically for each 5° section of the chart and describes the averages from meteorological and oceanographic observations made over hundreds of years for each month of the year.


February 2, 2019 9:44 am

The English term “fit for purpose” is one we should incorporate into our American version of the mother tongue. Beautifully succinct.

February 2, 2019 9:52 am

“The specific trend pattern we found in measurements looks exactly like what is predicted by computer simulations as a result of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream System, and I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the 2018 study’s authors, said in a statement last year.”

The hubris of ‘scientists’ who are so blinded by their expertise that they believe they know every contributing factor to a natural phenemena, despite hard observational evidence to the contrary, is the root cause of our wasting billions of dollars on a non-existent crisis.

ferd berple
Reply to  jtom
February 2, 2019 10:07 am

I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf
Reminds me of Sgt. Schultz


Reply to  ferd berple
February 2, 2019 10:37 am

I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf

I’m sure, he wasn’t even lookin’ for.

John Endicott
Reply to  jtom
February 5, 2019 5:45 am

“…and I see no other plausible explanation for it,” scientist Stefan Rahmstorf

It’s hard to see what you are not looking for, particularly when your salary depends on not seeing it.

Michael S. Kelly, LS, BSA, Ret.
Reply to  ferd berple
February 2, 2019 7:01 pm

These don’t link to anything.

Reply to  Michael S. Kelly, LS, BSA, Ret.
February 2, 2019 7:09 pm

https certificate of the site is invalid, you need to add an exception to download them.

February 2, 2019 11:03 am

Charles, I think, I really do, you really really wasting your time in this one…

Hopefully me wrong with this one.

Should not even have!


February 2, 2019 11:17 am

Who in God’s name ever took this POS movie seriously? C’mon now….good grief.

February 2, 2019 11:21 am

Just looking at the pic of the pompass gore makes my blood boil. I would spit on his shoes if I ever saw him in public face to face. Pure scum.

Reply to  cosmic
February 2, 2019 12:41 pm

Oh, come on! If he had a magic flying carpet, his shoes would never touch the ground! You’d never have a chance to spit on them!

February 2, 2019 4:41 pm

Greg is quite right, its the Coroulis force operating n the North Atlantic. So there has to be a equivalent current in the Pacific , all of that war water has to go both North and South.

In fact such movement of the currants is what drives the weather system, not a tiny trace gas. How silly can you be that so called scientists still think otherwise, or do they. Perhaps its all about receiving a steady income.


Jim Whelan
February 2, 2019 5:14 pm

The Day after Tomorrow is fiction that relies on a pseudo-scientific “hook” that has as much validity as the 1950’s “atomic testing creates huge monsters” trope. Even as a grade school kid back then I liked seeing monsters destroy Tokyo but knew the “science” was nonsense.

Reply to  Jim Whelan
February 2, 2019 6:22 pm

“atomic testing creates hug monsters” – Obviously, you have never seen “The Attack of the 50 Ft Woman”. She was amazing! Her clothes were amazing, too! They stretched to stay with her amazing growth! Amazing stuff!!!

February 3, 2019 7:45 am

Ok, let see if possible to save some time here.

Is not quite efficient to be drawn into a mud fight…not efficient at all.
It will take the aim off the priority, in this case the precautionary principle.

According to precautionary principle, as “bright” “leaders” like Trudeau, Climate Barbie and company can not ignore, deny or reject scientific research and papers about man-made climate,,, these “leaders” are subject to seriously consider cold and very cold freezing climate condition prospect.

As in the very basic point of precautionary, “first come first served” even when the whole have to be considered, these guys have to be very careful and responsible how they decide to depart off with taxpayers contribution and the wealth means of their own countries in context of climate change , in such a given condition,
especially if these guys clearly notified by their own good and concerned citizens about the current and respective scientific research and scientific finds shown and presented by such scientific papers, as mentioned in this blog post and other ones before it and the comments.

Why be lullaby and drawn into a mud-fight, when very well by considering the priority of the condition,
the precautionary principle, could actually have these guys, all of their kinds, political leaders, activists and the scientistas sort this among themselves, according to their duty accountability and responsibility.

That could actually be a more interesting mud-fight.

These days is quite effortless to subject and notify officially leaders like Trudeau almost allover, about some of the latest scientific research on climate change.
And with the “Day After Tomorrow” connotation to it, ain’t going to be too hard for any of these political and otherwise leaders to get the picture…and it’s projections.

Oh well, another way to look at it..


February 3, 2019 5:36 pm

I saw The Day After Tommorrow in the early sixties, it was a semi-documentary based on the events of WWII and contained footage of the Dresden firebombing and its aftermarth. It was banned in some countries because of its horrific footage.
It was a warning of what a nuclear holocaust would look like.
No Hollywood BS involved.

John Endicott
Reply to  Ve2
February 5, 2019 5:47 am

Different movie to the one being discusses here.

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