Note, about 5 minutes after publication, the “maybe” was added. See statement from Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. below.
By Michael Bastasch
Hurricane Michael strengthened to a Category 4 storm on Wednesday morning as it barrels towards the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend areas. When it strikes, it will be the most powerful storm on record to hit the region, according to officials.
“This is an unprecedented event as there are no Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said in its latest storm warning.
Michael wields maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and threatens to bring heavy rainfall and a massive storm surge — up to 12 feet in parts of northwestern Florida. (RELATED: Rick Scott Issues Dire Warning Ahead Of Hurricane Michael)
Nine major hurricanes have made landfall on the Florida Panhandle since 1851, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach. However, none of them were at Category 4 strength when hitting land.
Only 7 hurricanes to hit Florida have had a lower central pressure reading than Michael, according to Klotzbach. After landfall, Michael is expected to weaken and head northeast, dumping rain as it goes.
Florida Gov. Rick Scott urged residents to be prepared for catastrophic, life-threatening storm damages.
“This is your last chance to get prepared for this monstrous and deadly storm. Hurricane Michael has already taken lives in Central America. Let me be clear,” Scott warned during a Tuesday press conference.
“Hurricane Michael is going to hit very near to where we are in Franklin County as a dangerous and life-threatening major hurricane, and if you don’t follow the warnings from these officials, the storm could kill you,” the Republican added.
Likewise, the NWS officials warned there “is an increasing threat for tornadoes this morning as rain bands are already moving onshore.”
“Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, widespread power outages that will last days to even more than a week in some areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and endanger individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes,” NWS said in its latest report.
“Trees falling on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation,” NWS warned. “The time for preparations is quickly ending.”
Out in the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies evacuated personnel from dozens of offshore rigs. About 40 percent of offshore oil production and nearly one-third of natural gas production has been shut in as the storm moves past.
Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. says this on Twitter this morning:
"A History of Hurricanes in the Western Florida Panhandle 1559-1999' https://t.co/9sDFS8tJQo Since 1886 "6 were Category 4 (131-155 MPH)" @RyanMaue @DrShepherd2013 @BigJoeBastardi @USWeatherExpert @WeatherTalk @NHC_Atlantic
— Roger A. Pielke Sr (@RogerAPielkeSr) October 10, 2018
Following the link http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1473774/posts we get this from Elgin AFB:
A History of Hurricanes in the Western Florida Panhandle 1559-1999
46th Weather Squadron, Eglin AFB, FL
This summary of hurricanes and tropical storms that have impacted the Panhandle focuses mainly on the area near Eglin AFB (coastal Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Walton Counties). It includes some storms for which the eye did not actually make landfall in this immediate area, but the local effects were significant. It also includes many storms which had a greater impact on Pensacola or the Panama City/Big Bend region than on the immediate Ft. Walton Beach area. It uses tracks and historical records compiled by Chris Landsea and others at NOAA maintained at the Unisys Hurricane Archive at Purdue University, as well as records maintained at Eglin AFB, and the National Hurricane Center. Finally, it also was derived from accounts listed in Hurricane Effects: Choctawhatchee Bay Area, produced in 1972 by Brent Walker, Staff Meteorologist, ADTC (now the Air Armament Center) Eglin AFB, Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, by John M. Williams, and Iver W. Duedall, 1997, published by the University Press of Florida, and Hurricanes of the Mississippi Gulf Coast, 1717 to Present, by Charles L. Sullivan, 1987, published by Gulf Publishing Co. Special thanks also to Mr. Edward Keppel and to Gary Padgett, hurricane historian “extraordinaire” for their inputs and review.
A plot of the 52 hurricanes and tropical storms that have passed within 60 miles of Eglin AFB since 1886. 27 were hurricanes. Of these, 10 were Category 1 storms (winds 74-95 MPH), 5 were Category 2 (96-110 MPH), 6 were Category 3 (111-130 MPH), 6 were Category 4 (131-155 MPH). Since 1886, no Category 5 (156 MPH or more) hurricanes have passed within 60 miles of the base.