Giant Sucking Sound: process claims to be able to suck fuel “straight out of the sky”

How to suck carbon dioxide from the sky for fuels and more

Someday, the gasoline you buy might trace its heritage to carbon dioxide pulled straight out of the sky rather than from oil pumped out of the ground. By removing emitted carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and turning it into fresh fuels, engineers at a Canadian firm have demonstrated a scalable and cost-effective way to make deep cuts in the carbon footprint of transportation with minimal disruption to existing vehicles. Their work appears June 7 in the journal Joule.

“The carbon dioxide generated via direct air capture can be combined with sequestration for carbon removal, or it can enable the production of carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, which is a way to take low-cost carbon-free power sources like solar or wind and channel them into fuels that can be used to decarbonize the transportation sector,” says lead author David Keith, founder and chief scientist of Carbon Engineering, a Canadian CO2-capture and clean fuels enterprise, and a professor of applied physics and public policy at Harvard University.

Direct air capture technology works almost exactly like it sounds. Giant fans draw ambient air into contact with an aqueous solution that picks out and traps carbon dioxide. Through heating and a handful of familiar chemical reactions, that same carbon dioxide is re-extracted and ready for further use–as a carbon source for making valuable chemicals like fuels, or for storage via a sequestration strategy of choice. It’s not just theory–Carbon Engineering’s facility in British Columbia is already achieving both CO2 capture and fuel generation.

This image shows Carbon Engineering’s pilot air contactor, constructed from the same set of cooling tower componentry and design philosophy that will be used at commercial scale. CREDIT Carbon Engineering

The idea of direct air capture is hardly new, but the successful implementation of a scalable and cost-effective working pilot plant is. After conducting a full process analysis and crunching the numbers, Keith and his colleagues claim that realizing direct air capture on an impactful scale will cost roughly $94-$232 per ton of carbon dioxide captured, which is on the low end of estimates that have ranged up to $1,000 per ton in theoretical analyses.

That price-point is low enough to use direct air capture to start tackling the roughly 20% of global carbon emissions that result from driving, flying, trucking, and other ways of getting people and goods around. “Electricity from solar and wind is intermittent; we can take this energy straight from big solar or wind installations at great sites where it’s cheap and apply it to reclaim and recycle carbon dioxide into new fuel,” Keith says, adding that “Making fuels that are easy to store and transport eases the challenge of integrating renewables into the energy system.”

Artist rendering of the machine to remove carbon from the air for conversion to fuel.

The resulting fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, are compatible with existing fuel distribution and transportation infrastructure. Thanks to ultra-low life cycle carbon intensities, they are a promising route for reducing carbon emissions in heavy transportation and other sectors of the energy system that are demanding and difficult to electrify.

Centuries of unchecked human carbon emissions also mean that atmospheric carbon dioxide is a virtually unlimited feedstock for transformation into new fuels.

“We are not going to run out of air anytime soon,” adds Steve Oldham, CEO of Carbon Engineering. “We can keep collecting carbon dioxide with direct air capture, keep adding hydrogen generation and fuel synthesis, and keep reducing emissions through this AIR TO FUELSTM pathway.”

Keith and Oldham are optimistic that they have reduced scale-up risks by implementing direct air capture at reasonable costs using standard industrial equipment. That means that all the pieces are in place to move on to full-size plants capable of manufacturing 2,000 barrels of fuels per day– totaling over 30 million gallons per year across plants.

This image shows Carbon Engineering’s clean fuel, synthesized from carbon dioxide captured from the air and hydrogen split from water. CREDIT Carbon Engineering

Commercialization of such plants would allow direct air capture to make a dent in transportation emissions by connecting low-cost renewable energy to low-carbon transportation fuels using Carbon Engineering’s AIR TO FUELSTM pathway.

“After 100 person-years of practical engineering and cost analysis, we can confidently say that while air capture is not some magical cheap solution, it is a viable and buildable technology for producing carbon-neutral fuels in the immediate future and for removing carbon in the long run,” says Keith.

###

In addition to funds raised by Carbon Engineering, this work was supported by the British Columbia Innovative Clean Energy Fund, Sustainable Development Technologies Canada, the Industrial Research Assistanceship Program, and the U.S. Department of Energy.

The paper:

Joule, Keith et al.: “A process for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere” https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30225-3

 

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ResourceGuy

Okay, hook it directly to the national debt so it can be even more efficient as a perpetual motion machine.

joe

The fuel produced will first have to power the engines which drive the generators that power the fans, pumps and compressors needed for the process. And breaking the O2 from the C is surely not a room temperature process? And if the end product is going to be a hydrocarbon, won’t we have to add hydrogen? Hydrogen could be got by electrolysis of H2O, but it’s usually gotten by “reforming” natural gas – it’s cheaper (more efficient), and the only byproduct is …. CO2.

But after all that it’s all free energy, baby. If we just spend enough on research, propaganda and subsidies….

The fact that “scientists” are pushing this is proof positive that “scientists” will lie for money – they couldn’t possibly be stupid enough to think this will produce more energy than it consumes.

Urederra

Keith and his colleagues claim that realizing direct air capture on an impactful scale will cost roughly $94-$232 per ton of carbon dioxide captured …

Or it can be free if you capture CO2 in the form of tettuce and potatoes.

The cleanest fuel is natural gas (methane) which is produced naturally by decomposition in low O2 environments (land fills, sewage treatment plants, swamps, forest floors, hog farm lagoons. ) I’m sure it would be a lot cheaper to use this renewable resource than trying to produce fuel out of thin air (sort of like central banks printing fiat money). Also. the polar oceans are already sucking up CO2 on a scale several magnitudes greater than is possible by their method.

Or, you can compel everyone to wear a CPAP like carbon capture device while they sleep and create a multi-trillion dollar utility infrastructure to pipe all the exhaled CO2 to a processing plant. This sounds just as practical, right?

rocketscientist

You’ll need a connection in your tail pipe as well to capture the generated methane. Not sure you’ll get many who’ll willingly install one of those.

Terry Gednalske

No doubt, the California state legislature is already working on a law to make that mandatory.

John in Oz

It worked for water recovery for the Fremen on Dune, why not CO2?

kokoda

What could possibly go wrong. Once upon a time, citizens of planet earth were worried about Nuclear war destroying the planet. Have no fear, modern ‘scientists’ will outdo the nuclear menace by an order of magnitude.

rocketscientist

The big sucking bird shredder is a laughable image. All to make a quart sized jar of fuel.
It looks to me like they have invented a very expensive way of making Moonshine liquor.

The market for these devices is innumerate consumers.

MarkW

How much ya wanna bet that they have ignored construction and maintenance costs is their calculations?

hunter

….small correction:
The target market is innumerate policy makers and opinion leaders.

Artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is … dumb.comment image

Mike Graebner

can you provide a source for the graph. Thanks

MattS

Right click, copy link address

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Not sure about item #1.. 10k ppm level kills pests on plants via asphyxiation. Not sure how long a human could survive. Going from memory, 10,000 ppm, per docs I have, is deadly to humans within about an hour of exposure.

John P Schneider

Ralph – Not sure where you’re going with that link. I assume you realize O2 storage is also dangerous. https://www.homecaremedical.com/services/training/oxygen-use-home-fire-safety-guidelines-storing-handling-oxygen-equipment/

The claim that 10,000 ppm (1%) was “deadly to humans within about an hour” didn’t look right.

tty

Ever heard of mouth-to-mouth resuscitation? That is done with 40,000 ppm exhaled air. The high CO2 is actually considered beneficial since it stimulates the breathing reflex.

Trevor

Yep ! 10,000ppm will kill white-fly. HUMANS NOT AFFECTED at this level.
You breathe-out 4% to 5% CO2 ( 40,000ppm to 50,000ppm) without harm.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
“Submarine crew are reported to be the major source of CO2 on board submarines (Crawl 2003). Data collected on nine nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 3,500 ppm with a range of 0-10,600 ppm, and data collected on 10 nuclear-powered attack submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 4,100 ppm with a range of 300-11,300 ppm (Hagar 2003).”
WUWT has an article on CO2
“Claim: CO2 makes you stupid? Ask a submariner that question
Anthony Watts / October 17, 2012”
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CO2 is lethal at 100,000 ppm for about 5 to 10 minutes exposure.
That is 10% or about 250 TIMES as much as the present atmospheric concentration !!!
H2S however is lethal at 1000 ppm………ONE BREATH will do it !
Makes CO2 sound positively harmless !

Earl Smith

Boy am I lucky.
On my boat I experienced about 1000 hours of 20,000 PPM CO2 while conducting Polaris patrols in the ’60s. Don’t know how I escaped certain death.

MSO

Don’t know how I escaped certain death

Would you know how had you not experienced such high-levels of CO2?

Bob boder

Earl

maybe you are dead and you just don’t know it

Dennis Kuzara

Wikipedia:
Inhaled air is by volume 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen and small amounts include argon, carbon dioxide, neon, helium, and hydrogen.[16]

The gas exhaled is 4% to 5% by volume of carbon dioxide, about a 100 fold increase over the inhaled amount. The volume of oxygen is reduced by a small amount, 4% to 5%, compared to the oxygen inhaled. The typical composition is:[17]

5.0–6.3% water vapor
74.4% nitrogen
13.6–16.0% oxygen
4.0–5.3% carbon dioxide [40,000PPM – 53,000PPM]

[17] P.S.Dhami; G.Chopra; H.N. Shrivastava (2015). A Textbook of Biology. Jalandhar, Punjab: Pradeep Publications. pp. V/101.

hunter

You are wrong. Perhaps you made a decimal point error?

https://www.nap.edu/read/11170/chapter/5

“Submarine crew are reported to be the major source of CO2 on board submarines (Crawl 2003). Data collected on nine nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 3,500 ppm with a range of 0-10,600 ppm, and data collected on 10 nuclear-powered attack submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 4,100 ppm with a range of 300-11,300 ppm (Hagar 2003).”

Alan Tomalty

Why would we ever want to take CO2 out of the air? The atmosphere needs more CO2 NOT less.

Felix

Not all land plants and animals would become extinct below 150 ppm.

There would however be no trees, unless humans genetically modified them with C4 or CAM pathway genes. That would be even easier to do with C3 crop plants, as suggested for rice:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C4_carbon_fixation#Plants_that_use_C4_carbon_fixation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crassulacean_acid_metabolism#Comparison_with_C4_metabolism

Jane Rush

Could this end up being an actual global warming experiment. If they reduce CO2 levels down to pre-industrial times, we will be able to see what happens to temperatures.

If the effect of CO2 is as large as the IPCC needs to justify its existence, the presumed ‘forcing’ will force the planet into a 100 thousand year long ice age.

Mike L.

Since the warmists consider than increasing CO2 has caused global warming, surely they must agree that removing CO2 will cause cooling? And who can I sue as the level drops from 407 towards 150, thus endangering my life? Meanwhile, our NZ Socialist government has announced Green-influenced plans for a zero-carbon economy – no doubt in line with Green extremists’ wish to eliminate human life!

flow in

Jacinta’s hodgepodge of Marxist loons is really upsetting. $50 million given away to offset some bizarre climate guilt. and $80 million to blanket poison our forests, endlessly.
The greens do appear to hate human endeavour. I’m looking forward to the cognitive dissonance when they reveal Franz Josef Glacier grew this year

Bob boder

And since the increase in forcing is logarithmic decreasing the level of CO2 would be a very touchy exercise 30 or 40 PPM could be a disaster that would spiral us into a new ice age.

Louis Hunt

Even if they sequester the CO2 they extract, they won’t be able to put a dent in world-wide levels of CO2. They also won’t be able to make money on the process, so they will likely go broke unless the government funds them. However, if they make fuel out of the extracted CO2, they can sell the fuel and make some money. But then the process would only be carbon-neutral because burning the fuel will release the CO2 back into the air.

Ed Zuiderwijk

Atmospheric CO2 is also a practically unlimited feedstock for things called plants, which are also a bit more effective in converting it into polysaccharides. As CO2 is not a climate driver there is no need for elaborate schemes to do something which nature does perfectly well on its own. A solution for an imaginary problem.

Richard Bell

I am sure that this atmospheric CO2 to fuel scheme would cost less if they made the fuel from trees, instead of directly from the air.

The irony is that this process is no more (and in fact no less) carbon neutral than fossil fuels.

Gordon Jeffrey Giles

Is this from the Onion?

Nope. Real. In my town. The interesting thing was when the enviros realized this was “just a way to perpetuate the fossil fuel economy”. We are all a bit perplexed at this plant – not sure if it is a real project , or just a way to keep the grant money flowing.

hunter

Bet on the latter.

David Dibbell

Scanning through the paper, it appears no actual fuels were produced. Meanwhile, the forests and grasslands and crops in the northern hemisphere are doing the job nicely. When can we finally accept that CO2 is not a pollutant?

Russell Klier

They should call it “Photosynthesis”……

Henry Galt

Financynthesis

oeman50

Cost effective? I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya….

HotScot

We had London Bridge, but someone bought it.

They thought it was Tower Bridge.

Richard of NZ

Sorry Scot but please do not continue to promulgate that old urban myth. The buyers knew exactly what they were buying. They not only examined the bridge but took their time calculating the cost of disassembly and transport before putting in a bid.

Walter Sobchak

Instead of doing this, you could just burn the money and use that fire for heat and energy. I am sure it would be more economical.

J Mac

Indeed. Thermodynamically even more favorable if you add all of the money spent building the ‘big solar and wind farms’ needed to generate the intermittent and unreliable electricity they want to use to power the CO2 suckers!

There is a silver lining here, however…. If you devote all of the intermittent and unreliable solar and wind energy to solely power off-grid monstrosities like this proposal, the national electrical grid becomes immediately more stable, reliable, and the life cycle cost of grid based energy produced drops!

Tom Halla

At least they give a cost estimate, but it is still rather question-begging as to global warming.

Allen

Yes, because we need to steal the food of all the plants on the planet.
I would generally expect to be reading someone making fun of an article like this on WUWT. Instead, WUWT is actually publishing this kind of stuff directly.

JimG1

The US Department of Energy is still funding idiotic studies such as this?

Bruce Cobb

I hear trees are pretty good at capturing “carbon”. Been doing it for eons.

Marcus

Is it powered by 100% solar or wind ??

jorgekafkazar

Unicorn flatus turbines.

Pat Frank

The paper mostly describes a method to capture CO2 and turn it into solid CaCO3. For their CO2 to fuel process, they rely on hydrogen derived from electrolysis.

Hydrogen from electrolysis requires a separate power plant. The idea that the process will ever produce economic fuels is utter BS.

Bob Burban

CaO + CO2 = CaCO3 … so where does the CaO come from?

drew

Bake the CaCO3 at high temp, the CO2 is released. The CO2 in pure form is a sought after bulk commodity so that it can be processed into CO, which can then be converted by Fischer-Tropsch to synthetic methane, propane, gasoline, diesel, and wax.
The CaCO3 is converted back to CaO upon release of the CO2. The CaO is then used in the machine to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere, thus the CaO is used in a loop as a CO2 capture mechanism. The purpose of this machine is an effective CO2 capture mechanism, compared to say liquefaction methods or biomass oxidation.

The Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuels need CO+H2 as feedstock (called syngas). Over a simple iron-oxide catalyst, can make any synthetic liquid and gas fuel (from methane to octane to cetane to waxes). The process makes a very high quality ‘neat’ fuel, i.e. almost entirely paraffins. (Aside: most gasoline and diesel is a complex soup of paraffins, olefins, aromatics, and other complex organics. These other complex carbon compounds reduce the octane & cetane ratings, cause gumming, and other unwanted side effects of combustion performance.)

The CO2 to CO process can be done by ‘reverse water gas shift’, there might be a better method, I don’t know for sure. Anyway, RWGS also requires H2.
The H2 can be made by electrolysis sourced from hydroelectric, solar, wind, or nuclear.

The output is a high quality traditional fuel that can be burned by traditional engines, and can be more efficient if optimized. They would then release the CO2 to the air. This machine would capture the CO2 from the air, and close the carbon cycle. It is not a perpetual motion machine. The actual energy driving everything is nuke, solar, wind, or hydro (for a non-carbon source), the synthetic fuel just repackages that primary energy in a convenient, easy to carry form.

Mihaly Malzenicky

It is a remarkable technology, especially considering that LENR equipment can be manufactured this year.

Hugs

I am about to make a breakthrough, just need a million. Please.

hunter

Bunk. No LENR is coming this year or this decade.
Or ever.

paqyfelyc

this year. or next. We read this claim every year since ~2000.
I don’t know if LENR exist. I do know it isn’t understood, and far from real life application even if it exists. It takes decades to turn a proper science into a technology with real-life application for average Joe. Just look at electricity, nuclear energy, telephone, photoelectric effect, LED device, etc.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cold-fusion-lives-experiments-create-energy-when-none-should-exist1/

Mark from the Midwest

I’m always amused by the terms “scalable and cost-effective” The cost of doing anything, at small scale, in an academic environment is negligible because the overhead and external costs are zero. Move this outside that environment, do the design and engineering work, and then come back to me with the notion of scalability and an objective cost-benefit analysis.

The plants already do that, why reinvent the wheel? Simply let the plants pull the CO2 out of the atmosphere and turn the plants into fuel. That process is called the Fischer-Tropsch Process and has been used for years. My bet it is far cheaper to scoop up lawn clippings and paper garbage than run that machine. Anyway, yes, converting existing CO2 into fuel is a great idea. We should be spending money developing Fischer-Tropsch and related technology refineries instead of wasteful wind and solar.

At about 240 kg of CO2 per barrel of oil, it takes 3.75 barrels of oil to produce 1 ton of CO2. Even at the overly optimistic cost of $200 per ton to extract, you still need to disassociate a lot of water to get the needed hydrogen to make fuel which adds another couple of hundred dollars per ton. The bottom line is that it still looks like it takes more fuel to make the fuel being produced. And of course, it always takes more energy to produce fuel than is released by burning the produced fuel.

Why is it that all these ‘remedies’ for a climate crisis that’s precluded by the laws of physics sound like perpetual motion machines? Perhaps it’s because perpetual motion is precluded by the same laws?

Steve O

It’s too bad that lots of electricity consumers are already maxed out paying for massive windmills. We told you clowns that you have hundreds of years to see if this is really a problem and to come up with ways to address it, but no. You had to go and jump the gun and spend all your money on windmills. This is why we can’t have nice things.

Steven Zell

Carbon dioxide can be removed from the air (if desired) by contacting air with certain chemicals, including caustic solution, which forms dissolved carbonates.

But trying to produce hydrocarbon fuels from carbon dioxide is counterproductive, and downright stupid. The First Law of Thermodyamics tells us that if an exothermic reaction, such as fuel + oxygen –> CO2 + steam, is run backwards, the backward reaction requires as much net energy input as the forward reaction releases.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that in any energy conversion process, some energy is lost to the surroundings as heat.

This means that more energy input is required to convert CO2 back to fuel as could be obtained by burning the fuel. Why should any sane person want to do this?

HotScot

Steven

Wind turbines are a stupid idea. But they still went ahead with them.

Richard Patton

I doubt that any of the authors have heard of, or if they understand any of the laws of thermodynamics. The first and second law of thermodynamics are the two laws before which every other law of physics must bow. Any proposed process which violates those laws just validates the PT Barnum Law (there is a sucker born every minute).

drew

“Why should any sane person want to do this?”

Because electro-chemical batteries suck. Even Li-ion still suck compared to a high quality gasoline or diesel fuel, by an order of magnitude worse energy/volume and energy/mass density. Using this as one step in a syn-fuel process enables converting plentiful nuke (or other) energy to a more convenient, easy to carry form, that is a nearly trivial drop in replacement for the gasoline and diesel infrastructure.

If and when we run out of oil and gas, this could be really useful to perpetuate the ICE.

Ian W

These people need to get out a little more. A visit to a gas station in the US or Brazil shows that capture of CO2 from the atmosphere and creation of fuel is already an industrialized process and motorists are already using ethanol from that process. Plants (not industrial plant – green growing plants) photosynthesize using CO2 from the atmosphere and create sugars which can then be used to create ethanol for fuels.

Tom in Florida

And industrial hemp is best for biofuels. Low moisture, easy to grow, doesn’t need a lot of water or fertilizer, pest resistant. The U.S. is slowly coming around to removing industrial hemp from the drug list, it should happen this year. This will be the next major cash crop for the U.S.

MarkW

The more CO2 there is in the air, the more efficient this thing is going to be. So obviously we need to start boosting CO2 levels as fast as we can.

Paul Johnson

Another green energy fantasy. All it needs is cheap, unlimited, carbon-free energy to be practical. But if we had a cheap, unlimited, carbon-free energy why would we need it?

Given inevitable miniaturization, drivers will soon fuel their rides by blowing into a tube.

NavarreAggie

“This image shows Carbon Engineering’s clean fuel, synthesized from carbon dioxide captured from the air and hydrogen split from water. CREDIT Carbon Engineering”

There’s the gotcha. Where is the power coming from to liberate the hydrogen used in the process? By their own admission, wind and solar are intermittent at best.

Is there anything too silly to get through peer review?

Hugs

IG Nobel. I mean, this is serious science, just ask why it was done.

bonbon

The natural photosynthesis machine, at 90% efficiency, well beyond anything we can build (so far), is still not a perpetum-mobile. There is an exiton quantum process at work which is extremely interesting. We are already making quantum computers, quantum machines are surely next.

I would not rule out a “PhotonSynth Inc” someday. For sure its devices will not look like a pile of crude stone-age ventilators, with its products covering the entire gamut of organics and more…
So yes to real science of photosynthesis, living processes, instead of this diversion…
For serious energy, neutron and proton machines please.
This giant sucking sound is dumbing-down, as if some do not want us to master living machines.

Meanwhile the indefinitely surprising natural machines are busily humming on.

Van Doren

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency
For actual sunlight, where only 45% of the light is in the photosynthetically active wavelength range, the theoretical maximum efficiency of solar energy conversion is approximately 11%. In actuality, however, plants do not absorb all incoming sunlight (due to reflection, respiration requirements of photosynthesis and the need for optimal solar radiation levels) and do not convert all harvested energy into biomass, which results in an overall photosynthetic efficiency of 3 to 6% of total solar radiation.

3-6%. I’m sure we can do better. And maybe we will have to – while we don’t know if e-batteries will ever be good enough, the option to produce an optimal hydrocarbon fuel out of thin air might be possible. Maybe chemically, maybe through GMO bacteria or algae. All of this for the post-oil times of course.

Yirgach

I’m thinking maybe Mars might be a better test bed.
Whaddya say Mr. Musk?

Bitter&twisted

And just how much energy does this magical process take?
Another hare-brained boondoggle from the green scamsters.

J Mac

Why do these megalomaniacs want to CO2 starve all of the plants on planet earth, in a vainglorious attempt to solve a non-problem with monumentally stupid non-solution?

Thomas Englert

I suppose when you burn this superfuel, the CO2 is returned to the atmosphere, not lost.

Mary Brown

Now that we are at the 30th anniversary of Hansen’s famous 1988 climate model forecasts, a few things come to mind.

Remember the Scenario A, B and C? “A” was for “business as usual”, while “C” was with drastic GHG cuts.

Some Hansen apologists claim that Scenario B is what has verified. The reality is that emissions have been far higher than imagined and definitely a Scenario A+. But a funny thing happened. The atmosphere has removed far more of the CO2 than anticipated. So, in 1988, they assumed that concentrations would be much higher than 407ppm given the emissions.

So, Hansen was wrong about a lot of things, including the amount of CO2 that would stay in the atmosphere. Apparently, plants are hungry and eat that stuff up leading to global greening.

Anyway, the atmospheric concentration now is apparently slightly less than Scenario A despite the “more than business as usual” emissions.

Instead of acknowledging that Hansen 1988 was wrong on CO2 staying power and climate sensitivity, the apologists instead claim Scenario B verified and then use the wildly adjusted GISS data and then claim that the forecast was “pretty good”

But an honest forecast minus observed verification yields a hot bias of 2 to 1.

hunter

This is definitely worth a column!

Phil.

So, in 1988, they assumed that concentrations would be much higher than 407ppm given the emissions.

Hansen’s Scenario B projected 404 ppm CO2 for this year

Mary Brown

Emissions were far higher than expected and dispersion of CO2 from the atmosphere was higher than expected… two wrongs actually made a right. But hardly a promising forecasting technique going forward.

“So, in 1988, they assumed that concentrations would be much higher than 407ppm given the emissions.”
You need to write the basis for that claim. It isn’t true; as Phil. says, the numerical data from the time gives expected concentrations, and they were almost exactly in line with Scenario B.

The usual error here is interpreting Hansen’s “1.5% increase” in emissions. He didn’t mean 1.5% of the measured emissions; he didn’t have a figure for measured emissions. He meant a 1.5% increase in the observed concentration increment, as you can see from his arithmetic. And that turned out right.

LdB

You will all get a chance to look at more figures CO2 emission is on target to go up 3.7% this year (1st quarter was 4%) and most are forecasting the same next year.

MilwaukeeBob

Perchance, is it April 1st on the planet where these folks come from?
And how much of my tax money was splurged on this stupidity by the US DOE?
AND THIS is a perfect, if but only 1, example of why Trump got elected: Carbon Engineering, a CANADIAN CO2-capture and clean fuels enterprise. Hey, Canadians, if you can’t come up with enough money to funded this kind of stupidity, go put your hand in someone else’s pocket. STAY OUT OF MINE!

Joe Civis

my gosh if this works so well where are all the retrofits for cars to connect this directly to the exhaust and to the gasoline fill tube….. the cars will be able to run forever on one tank of gas!!!! hmmmmm not sure why but I am thinking of 2 words…. Rube Goldberg

Cheers!

Joe

hunter

Lil’ Abner did a spoof on just that sort of perpetual motion scam decades ago.

One acre of Paulownia trees require all the CO2 from 5 cubic kilometers of air per year to grow at current rates. Do the math on that and it becomes apparent that for plant growth, the component of air that’s critical for their survival (0.05% CO2) is not exactly abundant. Of course they *can* survive all stunted and decrepid, but in the carbon cycle we call life, that doesn’t bode well for the other life forms connected to Paulownia sp.

I’ve made an offer to one of these firms before and I stand by it – I’ll pay for a greenhouse set up pre-intake and post-treatment to monitor how well plants do under ‘polluted’ air versus the “clean” stuff they pump out. Of course they never responded..

And wait, how much did they say their fuel will cost?? Good lord no. Let me guess – would part of that cost be to pay for the massive amount of coal powered electricity they’ll be using to run this conversion? Egads – I thought we’d finally left perpetual motion machines behind.

jorgekafkazar

“Giant fans…”

Well, there’s no need to read any further, then.

robinedwards36

Is this all a joke? Have these Canadians ever heard of thermodynamics?
I hope that their paper contains some actual practical numbers including the full energy analysis.

“Have these Canadians ever heard of thermodynamics?”
I’m sure they acknowledge that there is an energy cost. Conversion to fuel is an incidental to their scheme, which is basically air capture. As I understand it, the argument would be that making fuel, using presumably renewable energy, could be economic relative to burying CO₂, and would fill the gap in renewables about powering aircraft etc.

Dr. Bob

Biomass from multiple sources can be produced with a cost of roughly $70/MT. This is about $140/ton of Carbon. Removing CO2 from air costs a minimum of $345/ton carbon or roughly 2.5X the cost of using biomass. If the biomass is from landfills, the cost is only the cost of separation of carbonaceous feeds from non-carbonaceous fees (rock, dirt, metals, etc.).
The next step is to convert CO2 into something useful which is most often syngas (CO + H2 in some ratio). With CO2 as a feed, this requires reduction using some form of energy. Methane reforming of CO2 is probably the most cost effective, but people are also considering electrolysis using fuel cells operated in reverse which consumes huge amounts of electricity. (for example, see: https://www.ems.psu.edu/~elsworth/courses/egee580/2010/Final%20Reports/co2_electrochem.pdf)
Next is conversion into fuel. Fischer-Tropsch technology would make paraffinic hydrocarbons, and copper catalysts can make alcohols of various types, mostly methanol, but ethanol and others are possible. Hydrocarbon fuels are the most energy dense and useable storage vehicle for any energy source, which is why crude oil is the ideal source of low cost transportation energy.
Trying to remove CO2 from the air is only slightly less fanciful than trying to remove CO2 from sea water, which is also under consideration.

DrTorch

Locate these in high CO2 environments (like exhaust from coal plants) and you should get an even better ROI.

I’m skeptical of the numbers, but if they’re going to do the testing, do it where the circumstances favor success, so that further analysis can show if it’s widely applicable.

Loren Wilson

All these processes are very energy intensive, further increasing their carbon footprint to fix a non-problem. The electricity they propose to use is also more expensive than traditional power plants. The laws of thermodynamics are still operative and there is no magic way to turn CO2 into fuel besides letting nature take her course. More energy is required to reverse the reaction than you got out of it because the increase in entropy also has to be reversed. Photosynthesis is a win-win-win.

John Mason

Oh my!! I wonder how much fossil fuel generated electricity was sucked up in this test!! It has to be more than any fuel produced!!

We are into perpetual motion machine crap here!!!

Gary Young

The US Navy is working on just such a scheme for the Ford Class Carriers to make jet fuel on board. The easiest way to reduce the effectiveness of carriers is to interrupt their supply chain delivering jet fuel. Key is that the reactors on the Ford class were designed to provide an excess of energy beyond what is needed to propel the ship so are also capable of powering “rail gun” catapults, energy weapons to defend the ship from hypersonic missiles, and still have some capacity to make fuel. Considering the cost of having refueling ships shuttling back and forth to the carriers and the ongoing costs of operating a carrier if air operations cannot be conducted, onboard manufacturing is a small cost to maintain operational status.

That Giant Sucking Sound is actually coming from your Wallet, not from fuel creation.

Dennis Kuzara

They don’t say how much energy they put into the process, but it has to be a lot more than they get out or we would have a perpetual motion machine. So how many pounds of carbon is required to extract each pound of carbon?

The best and cheapest method of carbon capture is to stop cutting your grass and let the weeds grow. Might need to change a few zoning ordinances to make that to happen, though.

I did a back of the envelope calculation for my group on this a few years back, comparing modern petrol to pure electric cars powered directly by nuclear electricity and synthetic fuels created using the same nuclear electric energy source, probably at night to shed load from a nuclear grid. David MacKay helped with insight from his solar paper and a quick sanity check of the numbers. I liked how much that rational solution would annoy green irrationals by fueling gas guzzling SUVs with wholly sustainable and renewable IC fuel made by “decarbonising” the atmosphere using nuclear power. It’s about 7 times the current manufacturing cost of petrol (not price, note), whereas electric cars have an equivalent cost of 50% more than petrol per KWh. Please feel free to check the numbers. Here are some abstracts from the full document. Enjoy and criticise away, with alternative verifiable facts such as I employ.
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Hope this is of interest, and even useful to some as intended. I will publish any corrections based on independently verifiable facts. I have not seen anything that attempts this before, it may be out there.

I have used Prof David MacKay’s Solar energy adequacy work – abstract and reference at the end – to cost the progressive ways we could use abundant nuclear energy to manufacture synthetic chemical fuel to power our personal transport when fossil fuels and oil feedstock become an uneconomic and rationed resource.

Obviously other synthetics can replace plastic feed stock, ethylene C2H4 and Propylene C3H6. Things are chemically sustainable, the required molecules are still all out there, just add energy.

We have the science and some of the technology to put them together as required. It’s really a question of affordable deliverability, the real delivered costs per kWh to the bill payers, that opinionated ideologists and politicians invariably ignore the practical reality of, if they have the formation to understand it, and if they are ever are told the facts by Humphrey as he presents the lobbyist’s legislation to sign and whip through.

So, I offer some answers re petrol, immediately for the hard of time/science/attention. These results are expressed as the directly comparable costs of delivering energy to the vehicle’s transmission using retail prices. The details follow.

1) Powering a Vehicle Directly with Electricity = 30p/kWh (no tax)
2) Powering a vehicle with synthetic petrol manufactured using the same Electricity = 135p/kWh (no tax)
3) Current Petrol Cost = 19p/kWh before tax (45p/kWh after tax @ £1.30/l)

DETAILS:
The Calculations: It’s quite simple.

On enquiring of this group I was guided to a recent paper by Prof David MacKay – who advises the DECC

MacKay DJC. 2013 Solar energy in the context of energy use, energy transportation
and energy storage. Phil Trans R Soc A 371: 20110431.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0431

David has addressed this question as part of research into the supply realities of solar energy that can be applied in this context. I validated his energy intensity figures other ways.. The paper is interesting for its approach to the realities of powering developed economies with real time solar derived energy sources in various latitudes. Roughly all the solar energy incident on the entire UK land surface is about a match with our current energy use, if I read it right. Of course that isn’t always available when required and can’t be collected without covering the entire UK land surface in renewables”

I use his approach on page 23 which is also copied below to scope an answer to the real question for our competitive and still developed economy…

– How much would synthetic petrol cost, and when is its use economically justified versus electric propulsion?

Here’s the summary:

HOW? We can use all you can eat affordable zero carbon electrical energy from nuclear power to manufacture relatively light liquid or gaseous synthetic fuel to combust to liberate energy at the time of use, as we mainly do now. WE have the technology to replace natural feedstocks with synthetics, given plentiful nuclear eenrgy.

This process captures CO2 from the atmosphere plus water as feed stock, and effectively recycles the CO2 emissions of its own product, so is operationally carbon neutral. This is as sustainable as our Sun. Only nuclear binding energy is used, to restore chemical molecular binding energy. We could also make Methane, Methanol and Ethylene (Plastics feed stock)

HOW MUCH? I have simply compared the direct costs of an electric vehicle with one powered by liquid fuel manufactured using the same electricity.

Start off by assuming the monstrously fraudulent one bidder deal with EDF @ 9p/kWh strike price for wholesale nuclear electricity on the grid (i), plus the current 6p/kWh paid in retail charges for all the other distribution and service provision costs, say 15p/kWh retail. This applies to both applications so affects the absolute value but does not affect the relative comparison

(i) should be 6p/kWh as it is elsewhere for new nuclear deals not done between French and British Civil servants for their lobbyists (EDF is owned by the French government).

1) Powering a Vehicle Directly with (nuclear) Electricity = 30p/kWh (no tax) :

To charge a battery is roughly 50% efficient, so in energy available to the vehicle transmission that works out at 2 x 15p/kWh = 30p/kWh.

Plus the additional costs of battery supply and management. I have not included grid losses.

2) Powering the same vehicle with synthetic petrol Manufactured Using Nuclear Electricity = 135p/kWh (no tax) :

Per the referenced paper to energise the chemical process takes 13kWh of energy per Kg and is around 38% efficient, so requires 35kWh of energy to produce 1 Kg of petrol.

This gives back 13 kWh of energy on combustion, which is converted with c.30% energy efficiency in modern IC engines for delivery to the transmission.

So 35kWh input costs 525p and delivers 3.9kWh at the transmission = 135p/kWh

3) Current Petrol Cost = 19p/kWh before tax (45p/kWh after tax):

For comparison fossil derived petrol is currently £1.30/L, which is £1.75/Kg at a density of 0.74Kg/L.

This petrol delivers 13kWh of energy, converted to 3.9kWh of motive energy at 30% efficiency, so the cost per kWh at the transmission is

175p/kg / (13 x 0.3) kWh/kg = 45p/kWh

This is after tax, before tax it is 55p/litre delivered to the forecourt, so true cost is 45p/kWh x (55/130) = 19p/kWh before tax.

NOTES:

(i) Whoever takes the lead in the inevitable mass build of nuclear power to replace fossil fuel generation could mop up some of the third world’s CO2 emissions (in net storage, as we re emit the atmospheric CO2 we use to create the fuel when burning the fuel.

This is entirely sustainable apart from the nuclear binding energy consumed.

(ii) Using a liquid, solid, or even gaseous form of intense chemical energy which can be easily transported and conveniently replenished when and where required, is a proven and much more practical way to energise transportation. Lugging pure electrical energy around in heavy chemical storage containers of limited capacity that have a high transport cost of their own, are inconvenient to swop out, and slow to charge is not. Unfortunately the economics of synthetic fuel appear to put this option at a price premium to batteries.

(iii) There are Some Progressive Ways Solar Energy could be harvested far away to make synthetic fuels where it is cheapest in terms of solar energy and land use costs and availability (Saudi/Libya when theoil runs out!) As with the ice ships of old transporting ice from cold parts of the world to cool the larders of landowner aristos, but in reverse, f as fuel made from stored chemical enrgy ..

That’s what I think. Solve the end of fossil and energy supply problems progressively with real science that can work, versus legislating green beliefs that cannot on the science fact.

You?

Marc Sparks

Surely there’s a tax credit to be had for taking all that carbon out the air?

Wallaby Geoff

Are these people serious that this is in any way a practical solution? Try to get investors. Oh hold on, the government will like it, so the taxpayers can invest without their permission.

Peter Morris

Uh huh. Keep pushing that rock up that hill…

Amber

A Co2 sucker , just like a scary global warming sucker .
Let’s kid ourselves this contraption , plus millions of others like it , would regulate the exact amount of Co2 in the atmosphere . Who sets the desired amount ? Who would ever guess we will have world wars over who controls the Co2 knob ?

Thomas Englert

It may tend to dampen unreasonable fear of the potential future CO2 menace, possibly, according to my ad hoc models.