Symmetry and Balance

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The CERES satellite dataset is a never-ending source of amazement and interest. I got to thinking about how much energy is actually stoking the immense climate engine. Of course, virtually all the energy comes from the sun. (There is a bit of geothermal, but it’s much less than a watt per square metre on average so we can ignore it for this type of analysis).

So let’s start from the start, at the top of the atmosphere. Here’s the downwelling top of atmosphere (TOA) solar energy for the northern and the southern hemisphere:

CERES NH and SH TOA solar radiation.png

Figure 1. Top of atmosphere (TOA) downwelling solar energy. This is averaged on a 24/7 basis over the entire surface of the earth.

However, we don’t get all of that energy. Much of it is reflected back into space. So I took the CERES solar data and I subtracted the reflected solar. The reflected solar is the total upwelling sunshine at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that has been reflected from the clouds, the aerosols, the soil, the plants, the ice, and the ocean. The TOA solar minus the TOA upwelling solar reflections is the amount of energy available to heat the planet. Here’s the amount of available solar energy around the world.

Average Available Solar Energy.png

Figure 2. Map of the global distribution of average available solar energy. This is the solar energy remaining after albedo reflection of part of the incoming sunshine back into space.

Once I had the available energy, I subtracted out the seasonal variations. These are the changes that repeat year after year. Removing these repeating signals leaves only the small variations due to irregular changes in the amount of the reflections. (There is also a very small sunspot-related variation in the incoming solar of about a quarter of a W/m2 on a global 24/7 basis. It is included in these calculations, but makes no practical difference).

So here is the first look at how much energy is available to drive the great planet-wide heat engine that we call the climate, divided by hemispheres:

CERES NH and SH TOA solar & available.png

Figure 3. TOA solar and available solar after albedo reflections. Solar is about 340 W/m2, and about a hundred W/m2 of that are reflected back out to space.

Bear in mind that the amount of energy that enters the climate system after albedo reflections is a function of highly variable ice, snow, and clouds … and despite that, there is only very little variation over either time or space. Year after year, somehow the clouds and the ice and the snow all basically balance out, northern and southern hemispheres … why?

As you can see above, the available solar energy in two hemispheres are so near to each other that I’ve had to make the line representing the southern hemisphere narrower than that for the northern hemisphere so that you can see both. To see the two separately we need to zoom in close, as shown in Figure 4 below.

available energy nh sh.png

Figure 4. Available TOA solar energy after albedo reflections, northern and southern hemispheres.

Now, I noticed a few curiosities about this graph. One is that despite the great difference between the northern hemisphere (more land, lots of mid-and-high-latitude ice and snow) and the southern hemisphere (more ocean, little midlatitude land or ice or snow), the amount of average incoming energy is within a half a watt (NH = 240.6 W/m2, SH = 241.1 W/m2, black and red dashed horizontal lines)

Second, the two hemispheres generally move in parallel. They increased to 2003 – 2004, stayed about level to 2013 – 2014, and then increased again.

Third, there’s about an apparent lag between the northern and southern hemispheres. Now, I thought well, that makes sense … but then I realized that there is no annual signal left in the data. And I checked, there’s no six-month signal left in the data either. Not only that, but up until about 2011 the south moves before the north, but after that, the north is moving first. Again … why?

Gotta love the joys of settled science …

In any case, I then wanted to compare the variations in available energy with the variations in surface temperature. Now the CERES dataset doesn’t contain surface temperature. However, it contains a dataset of surface upwelling radiation, sometimes called “radiation temperature” because it varies as the fourth power of temperature. Figure 5 shows the monthly changes in TOA downwelling available solar radiation, compared to surface upwelling radiation.

CERES scatter surface lw vs available solar.png

Figure 5. Scatterplot, surface radiation temperatures (upwelling longwave radiation) versus TOA average available solar energy. Each dot represents the situation in a 1° latitude x 1° longitude gridcell, covering the entire planet. So there are 64,800 dots in the graph above.

So … what is happening in this scatterplot? Obviously, what’s happening depends on the temperature … and maybe more. To understand it, let me give you the same data, divided by hemisphere and by land versus ocean. To start with, here’s what might be the most revealing graph, that of the land in the southern hemisphere.

CERES land SH scatter surface lw vs available solar.png

Figure 6. Scatterplot, southern hemisphere land-only surface radiation temperatures (upwelling longwave radiation) versus TOA average available solar energy.

On the right we have we have the southern parts of Africa and South America … and on the left, we have Antarctica. You can clearly see the different responses between what happens below and above freezing.

Next, here’s the land in the northern hemisphere.

CERES land NH scatter surface lw vs available solar.png

Figure 7. Scatterplot, northern hemisphere land-only surface radiation temperatures (upwelling longwave radiation) versus TOA average available solar energy.

There isn’t anywhere in the northern hemisphere that the land gets as cold as Antarctica. In part, this is because the South Pole is land and the North Pole is water, and in part because much of Antarctica is a high elevation perpetually frozen plateau.

What all of this shows is that the response of the planetary surface to increasing solar radiation is in part a function of temperature. The colder the average temperature, the more the system responds to increasing solar radiation.

With that in mind, I took Figure 5 and calculated the slope of just the part of the world that on average is not frozen. Figure 8 shows that result.

CERES scatter surface lw vs available solar trended.png

Figure 8. As in Figure 5, and including the trend of the unfrozen parts of the globe.

Now, I found this to be a most curious graph. Here’s the curiosity. The greenhouse effect is the reason that the surface of the planet is warmer than we’d expect from simple calculations of the amount of sunlight hitting the Earth. This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth. As a result, the earth ends up warmer than it would be otherwise.

If the poorly-named “greenhouse effect” were 100% perfect, for every additional watt per square metre (W/m2) of sunlight entering the system, the surface would radiate two W/m2—one W/m2 from the sunlight, and one W/m2 from the downwelling radiation from the atmosphere. Based on the ratio of the incoming radiation and the radiation from the surface, we can say that the overall greenhouse multiplier factor of the perfect greenhouse is 2.0. (See my post The Steel Greenhouse for a discussion of this.)

Of course, in a real world, the multiplier factor will be less. We know what the long-term overall average multiplier factor for the planet is. We can calculate it by dividing the overall average upwelling longwave radiation from the surface by the overall average available solar energy. The average upwelling surface longwave radiation is 398 W/m2, and the average available solar energy is 240 W/m2. This gives a greenhouse multiplier factor of 398 / 240 = 1.66.

And that’s the curiosity because in Figure 8 the average multiplier factor is 0.72, well below 1.0. Because this multiplier is less than one, it would imply that the world should be much colder than it is …

How can we resolve this apparent contradiction? To me, it is evidence of something that I have said for many years. This is that the sensitivity of the surface temperature to the amount of downwelling radiation is not a constant as is assumed by mainstream climate scientists. Instead, it is a function of temperature. At temperatures above freezing, the surface upwelling radiation increases by about three-quarters of a W/m2 for each additional W/m2 of incoming solar radiation.

But when the earth is quite cold, such as is the case in Antarctica, the surface temperature is much more responsive to changes in incoming radiation. Here’s the situation in Antarctica:

CERES antarctic scatter surface lw vs available solar trended.png

Figure 9. As in Figure 8, but showing the situation in Antarctica

Note that this sensitivity is not a result of the land ice on Antarctica melting and changing the albedo. Almost all of Antarctica is frozen year-round.

Now, there is one other way we can look at this situation. We’ve looked above in Figures 5 to 9 at the long-term, basically steady-state situation shown by the average state of the  68,400 one-degree by one-degree gridcells that make up the surface of the planet. However, instead of the steady-state long-term average shown above, we can also look at how things change over time. Figure 10 shows the change in time of the anomaly in temperature over the period of the CERES satellite observations, as compared to the anomaly in average TOA solar energy.

CERES surface lw and available solar.png

Figure 10. Monthly surface longwave and TOA solar radiation.

You can see that other than the jumps in surface radiation due to the warm El Nino events of 2009/10 and 2016/17, there is a close relationship between available sunshine. A cross-correlation analysis (not shown) verifies that there is no lag between the changes in the solar input and the surface response.

We can also determine the nature of the short-term relationship between these two variables by using a scatterplot, as shown in Figure 11 below:

CERES scatter surf lw avail solar monthly.png

Figure 11. Scatterplot, monthly averages of available top-of-atmosphere available solar energy and surface upwelling longwave radiation.

As we would expect, the trend is smaller in the short-term data monthly changes shown in Figure 11 than the trend in the longer-term gridcell average data shown in Figure 8 (0.58 versus 0.72 W/m2 surface change per W/m2 solar input change).

CONCLUSIONS:

Overall, the response of the non-frozen surface to increasing solar radiation is an average increase of about 0.7 W/m2 of upwelling surface radiation for each 1 W/m2 increase in available solar energy.

 Below freezing, this response increases with decreasing temperature, until at typical Antarctic temperatures of -20°C to -60°C the response is about 5 W/m2 for each 1 W/m2 increase in available solar energy.

Per the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, the change in surface temperature corresponding to a 1 W/m2 change in surface longwave radiation ranges from 0.2°C per W/m2 at 0°C, to 0.16°C per W/m2 at about 30°C.

Given a change of 0.7 W/m2 for a 1 W/m2 change in incoming solar energy, this would indicate a temperature change in the unfrozen part of the planet of from 0.11°C per additional W/m2 at 30°C, to 0.16°C per additional W/m2 at 0°C.

The increased downwelling radiation estimated for a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 W/m2. Ceteris paribus, this would indicate that if solar radiation increased by 3.7 W/m2, we would see a temperature increase of 0.4°C to 0.6°C depending on the surface temperature.

Finally, as a side note, the average change in TOA downwelling total solar irradiance (TSI) due to the change in sunspot activity is on the order of 0.26 W/m2 peak to peak (global 24/7 average). However, only 240/340 = 70% of this is available, the rest is reflected back to space. Given the relationship of 0.72 W/m2 surface change per each additional W/m2 of TOA available solar energy, and a maximum temperature change per watt of 0.16 °C per W/m2, this would indicate a maximum effect of 0.26 * 240/340 * 0.72 * 0.16 = 0.02 °C from that change in TOA solar radiation …

It’s a lovely evening here on our hill above the sea, a few clouds, cool air … I wish all of you the joy of this marvelous life.

w.

AS USUAL, I politely ask that when you comment on someone’s words, you QUOTE THEIR WORDS EXACTLY. This is a long and complex post, and misunderstandings are the bane of the intarwebs. The only way for the rest of us to be sure what or who you are talking about is for you to quote their words exactly.

DATA: This is all done with the CERES satellite TOA and Surface datasets, which are available here under the heading:

Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF)

Climate Data Record (CDR) of monthly TOA fluxes and consistent computed surface fluxes and clouds suitable for analysis of variability at the intra-seasonal, inter-annual, and longer time scales.

 

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Nylo
May 5, 2018 10:11 pm

Willis, “If the poorly-named “greenhouse effect” were 100% perfect, for every additional watt per square metre (W/m2) of sunlight entering the system, the surface would radiate two W/m2—one W/m2 from the sunlight, and one W/m2 from the downwelling radiation from the atmosphere”.
That may be true but that is not what you would detect in CERES. CERES shows you what the surface has emitted minus what has been retained by the atmosphere plus what the atmosphere emits. In a perfect greenhouse, you would detect 1W/m2 (atmosphere retains the whole 2W/m2 and then radiates away only half of it outwards). Assuming equilibrium of course.

Hugs
Reply to  Nylo
May 5, 2018 11:14 pm

Absolutelty Willis, I think you were confusing me at least these. Though you don’t need that much to confuse me.

Reply to  Nylo
May 6, 2018 8:02 am

Except that the IPCC requires the next W/m^2 to increase the SB emissions of the surface by 4,3 W/m^2 in order to manifest the 0.8C rise claimed to arise. This requires GHG effects (which are the primary ‘feedback’ effects) to supply 3.3 W/m^2 to the surface for each W/m^2 of forcing.
The obvious absurdity is how can the next W/m^2 of forcing increase surface emissions by 4.3 W/m^2 while the last one only increased surface emissions by 1.6 W/m^2 (i.e. 600mw per W/m^2 of ‘feedback’).

Kurt
Reply to  Nylo
May 6, 2018 12:33 pm

I understood Willis’ chart on upwelling LW radiation to be indirectly ,measured by surface temperatures, not as a direct measurement of the LW radiation at the top of the atmosphere. And since the upwards LW radiation (340+) is much greater than the available incoming solar radiation (240+), it has to be representative of surface radiation and not just what the atmosphere emits to space after it absorbs what the surface emits. Otherwise, where did the extra 100 W/m2 come from?
But I am curious about this:
“. . . the amount of energy that enters the climate system after albedo reflections is a function of highly variable ice, snow, and clouds … and despite that, there is only very little variation over either time or space. Year after year, somehow the clouds and the ice and the snow all basically balance out, northern and southern hemispheres …”
This should not be the case. It makes me wonder whether the CERES satellites are really capturing what the climate scientists think they are.

Reply to  Kurt
May 7, 2018 3:50 am

Very interesting paper you linked there, Willis. Also a great post.

Timo Soren
May 5, 2018 10:13 pm

If we averaged the reaction to increased solar over the entire surface, (I don’t have a good area decomposiition of the globe wrt to the position of those temps.) but it would be interesting to see if the response worldwide was something like 1.4 wm/m^2 would then give a maximum world wide temp increase at approximately 1.5 degrees increase by weighted average over the and the tempurature it occured at.

Reply to  Timo Soren
May 6, 2018 6:13 am

The data is already a weighted average is it not?

Felix
May 5, 2018 10:19 pm

The solar flux which matters is UV used to make and break ozone in the atmosphere and the UV absorbed into the oceans, which drives the oscillations, such as ENSO. Other wavelengths reinforce this high energy component.

Nylo
May 5, 2018 10:25 pm

And Willis, “The average upwelling surface longwave radiation is 398 W/m2”
I am very, very interested in knowing where this came from. If it were coming from TOA measurements by CERES it would mean that the planet is far from equilibrium, more energy out than in. Thanks a lot!

Nylo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 5, 2018 10:59 pm

Thanks a lot Willis, but this is what I cannot understand. AFAIK CERES measurements are basically done from satellites at the top of the atmosphere. How do they know what happens between the surface and the atmosphere? How do they know what is it that the surface emits but the atmosphere traps?

Nylo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 5, 2018 11:51 pm

Thanks a lot Willis. After reading your links I am left unconvinced about the validity of the 398W/m2 number, too much modelling around the actual measured values. However, 398W/m2 would be the radiation of a black body at a uniform temperature of 289.4K or roughly 16.3ºC. Which I can totally believe to be also true for a planet with the temperatures distriburtion that Earth has and at an average surface temperature of around 2-3 degrees less than those 16.3ºC. So the number totally passes my smell test. There are still some comparisons that I do not understand about your post, but I have to go now, more will come later. Thanks again.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 9:24 pm

“Once they have all of those TOA measurements, they are combined with other measurements to back-calculate the “Surface” datasets.”
It’s worse than that. There’s about a 4 watt bust in the CERES energy balance that is “balanced and filled”, “within the error bars” with ocean uptake.
As Mr. Mosher says, “Its…assumptions all the way down.”

Reply to  Nylo
May 6, 2018 9:49 am

The 398W/m2 figure is not the scope of this article, and yes, it is definitely wrong. Surface emissivity is about 0.92 over all (and 0.94 for water btw.). So it will be about 288^4 * 5.67e-8 * 0.92 = ~360W/m2.
The reason why climatologists prefer an exaggerated 390W/m2, or even 398W/m2 is that this is the only to even argue a GHE. Using the right figures (especially with regard to cloud forcing) will not leave you with any GHE at all. I’ll post the hole story below..

Nylo
Reply to  Leitwolf
May 7, 2018 1:24 am

Leitwolf, maybe you don’t realize that even if you were totally correct about your 360W/m2 this would still prove that there exists a so-called GH effect. Otherwise the planet would be cooling, as the energy heating the planet’s surface only from the sun is lower than that.

Reply to  Nylo
May 7, 2018 4:35 am

Otherwise the planet would be cooling, as the energy heating the planet’s surface only from the sun is lower than that.

First realize the Suns energy comes in much stronger than average, second it cools continuously under clear skies.
Lastly there is a lot of the 1,000 or so W/m^2 at the surface in the tropics that goes into evaporation.
Water vapor in this respect is a very large energy storage system, that envelops much of the planet.
I haven’t calculated a global average forcing(only specific lat values), so I have no opinion on what a global average number would be, just that when dealing with averages, you’re skipping over a lot of processes that exist in reality.

Reply to  Leitwolf
May 7, 2018 8:33 am

Sorry .. I did not find the time to explain it all as I promised. So let as look at where the GHE origninates from. We assume 390W/m2 (sic!) for surface emissions, and about 240W/m2 for solar input (at an albedo of 0.3), which means a difference of 150W/m2 or 33K respectively. For simplicity let us skip the slight variations of these figures.
So we have 150W/m2 of which 30W/m2 come from falsly assuming a surface emissivity = 1. If we except that emissivity = 0.92 we are left with 120W/m2 only.
Another 30W/m2 originate from clouds, according to the IPCC. In their AR5 they state clouds had an albedo effect of 50W/m2, downward emissions of 30W/m2 (=cloud GHE), and a net negative forcing of 20W/m2. That leaves 90W/m2 to be explained by GHGs.
Of course that IPCC statement is complete non sense.
a) they cut the albedo effect from 80W/m2 to 50W/m2
b) they skip the upward emissions, likely in a range of another 30W/m2
c) they claim a net negative forcing of 20/m2, but real weather data show that temperatures are higher with clouds than without.
Here is the evidence provided by the NOAA:comment image
So it is 110W/m2 upward (23% + 9% of 342W/m2), NOT 50W/m2. Even if we held on to a net negative forcing of 20W/m2, we would need to assign 90W/m2 for downward emission/reflection. Correcting this “mistake” costs another 60W/m2 of the GHE (which now we must assign to clouds), and that leaves just 30W/m2 for GHGs.
These 30W/m2 are yet dubious, as they require a 20W/m2 negative net forcing of clouds, as named before. Since clouds definitely have a positive net forcing instead, there is nothing left over. Logically there is no GHE once we get the numbers right.

May 5, 2018 10:37 pm

For me the most interesting information is in Fig.4. There is a great anomaly upwards of the solar radiation from 2016 onward. It happened at the same time; when we experienced the strongest El Nino following a baby El Nino right behind. And we are still waiting La Nina… I think that we have an explanation in Fig. 4. There has been an anomaly in the solar energy at the very same time inreasing the temperature effects of El Nino and delaying La Nina.
I reckon that many climate change scientists are not eager to publish this finding, because it shows that the Sun has a role in the climate change. I have noticed that at least in my country, the mass media do not talk about El NIno 2016 at all – it was simply the hottest year so far thanks to climate change caused by the mankind.

Hugs
Reply to  aveollila
May 5, 2018 11:29 pm

There’s a hockey stick!
But exactly how one ends up saying the Sun is causing an El Niño (‘has a role’)? I thought El Niño has nothing to do with variations of the Sun. If you’re saying the Sun without its variation causes El Niño, you could continue telling that the Sun causes pretty much everything else as well. Because it does. But the AGW is not about that. It is about how CO2 affects given we don’t magic the Sun, which causes all climate, away.
This sounds so elementary, I’m thinking I have a stroke of Dunning-Kruger. But really, I think blablablaically, it is wrong to say the Sun causes anything, unless we talk about the changes in the Sun. It doesn’t make sense to talk about what happens, for example, a pseudocyclical change in cloud coverage causing some temporally limited rush of warming, as something caused by the Sun.

Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 3:34 am

To go with Willis’s comment, remember an El Nino is a charge/discharge oscillation, they should happen faster which more incoming energy.
And of course the clouds are also subject to the effects of temp and pressure on the vapor pressure of water, and we do live on a water planet.

Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 3:35 am

This got me thinking, wonder if there’s surface pressure data you can integrate into the mix, might find some interesting correlations.

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 5:09 am

Willis, your fig 10 shows a decline in available solar at the peak of El Nino episodes.

Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 6:06 am

Hugs the sun is ultimately causing the El Nino via delayed discharge of upwelling solar absorbed energy that is always adding energy back into the air to augment the direct incoming solar effect on the air on a given day.
There are two basic types of El Nino in my book, solar cycle onset Nino under clearer skies high insolation at solar minimum, which is coming up next for us, and the top of solar cycle Nino(s) that are TSI level driven.
The clouds are driven via evaporation by temperature changes as Willis has shown before. The OHC however is responding to incoming solar:
The clouds are an after-effect not the main action, and whatever feedback is temporary.
Fig 17 indicates the effect of climate data record TSI (thick dark red), F10.7cm solar flux (blue), and v2 sunspot number (red) on 18 climate indices across 4 solar cycles, cross correlated in 12 year spans:comment image?dl=0
The incoming solar drives OHC, which drives the others. You can see the cycle onset Nino and the top of cycle TSI Nino(s) in the RSS WV plot. Low WV going into the minimum now is creatinggrowing drought.
‘Symmetry and balance’ will be achieved taking all that into account.

Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 6:14 am

Oh jeez, I should wait until the effects of my first coffee kick in before posting. The figure above is Fig.18; Fig 17 below is the SC24 top cycle TSI impact on OHC that drove the 2015/16 El Nino:comment image?dl=0

ren
Reply to  Hugs
May 6, 2018 1:59 pm

Low solar activity ensures a weak hurricane season in the Atlantic and a weak La Niña.comment image

Gary Pearse
Reply to  aveollila
May 6, 2018 7:26 am

aveollila: yes, and figure 10 showing the same plus the effect of El Nino. I can’t see why there is controversy regarding the substantial effect of increased (and decreased) available solar energy on temperature.
Also, because of the large upwelling response from frozen regions and the modest effect of an increase in solar from the rest of the planet – it’s no wonder that there is so much frustration in the team in trying to convince people of a clear human caused signal and why the general worry is perforce somewhere off into the future.

charles nelson
Reply to  Gary Pearse
May 6, 2018 2:43 pm

Because Leif says that the sun has NO impact.
And I think you should just accept that…because Leif is an ‘expert’.

May 5, 2018 10:43 pm

Another comment. The anomaly in the solar energy is not due to the Sun’s avtivity increase accoring to TSI measurements. If so, then the ony explanation is the albedo change caused by the cloudiness change. Where is by the way the cloudiness data of the Earth since 2010? Is there anybody who knows?

Reply to  aveollila
May 6, 2018 8:48 am

The ISCCP data reports cloud information going back to the early 80’s.

jimmww
May 5, 2018 10:49 pm

Bloody masterful. Willis, I salute you.
And, for all love, ceteris paribus? Lord have mercy! We’re not dead yet.
However… I don’t see acknowledgement of the increase in outgoing LWR at the fourth power of the land temperature. This must moderate drastically any increase in land temperature, since the back-radiation is linear and partial.

Ben Wouters
May 6, 2018 12:06 am

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Of course, virtually all the energy comes from the sun. (There is a bit of geothermal, but it’s much less than a watt per square metre on average so we can ignore it for this type of analysis).

This is only correct for the energy FLUXES. Almost the entire heat content (~temperature) of the earth does not come from the sun but is geothermally caused. The core, mantle and crust are NOT heated by the sun, let alone by the atmosphere. Same for the deep oceans, below the permanent thermocline.
The sun only slightly increases the heat content of the upper 10-20m of the crust and (mostly) the mixed surface layer of the oceans. That solar energy is lost again at the surface, heats the atmosphere and leaves at the TOA to space. At the TOA we have an energy balance, NOT a radiative balance at the surface.
(~20% of the solar energy directly heats the atmosphere, not the surface)
Earth is not a blackbody that warms from 0K to some radiative balance temperature. Earth has a temperature, and the sun slightly increases that temperature at the outer surface to reach our observed temperatures.
Role of the atmosphere is just to reduce the energy loss to space.
At 290K surface temperature without atmosphere we would lose ~400 W/m^2 directly to space.
Thanks to the atmosphere we only lose ~240 W/m^2 to space, and can maintain our surface temperatures.
Once you realize this the whole system makes sense, including the incredible stability of the system you often mention.

May 6, 2018 12:31 am

And what part does CO2 play in this ‘radiative balance’ ?
100% according to AGW theory, ie it swamps any solar effect, let alone the earth’s own internal temperature; so they say.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  petroalbion
May 6, 2018 2:32 am

petroalbion May 6, 2018 at 12:31 am

And what part does CO2 play in this ‘radiative balance’ ?

A neglectable role, as is to be expected of a trace gas (0,04%) in an atmosphere that just slightly reduces energy loss to space.
It may even be a slightly negative role since CO2 absorbs solar IR, thus preventing this energy from reaching the surface.

Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 6, 2018 6:00 am

Ben Wouters
I agree with both of your comments! Good points. I think that we know too little about the elephant in the room. For example, has anyone ever done measurements of T [W/m2] going down into different levels of a mine?
The change in the movement of earth’s inner core explains the cooling I noted here [South Africa} and the arctic melt.
I also agree with you that CO2 absorbs solar. There absorptions in the UV [which is how we can identify it on other planets], in the 1-2 and 4-5 um [ I used to measure CO2 in N2 at 4600A]
On a personal note: I had a class mate at the OLAN college [Holland] whose name was Ben Wouters. You would not happen to be that same person?
Anyway, for those interested, here is a summary of my investigations:
http://breadonthewater.co.za/2018/05/04/which-way-will-the-wind-be-blowing-genesis-41-vs-27/

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 10:27 am

Willis
I agree 100% with your PS statement.
But you have not proven in any way that the net effect of more CO2 is that of warming rather than cooling.
[remember that the closed box experiments do not show the amount of energy being back radiated by CO2]

Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 6, 2018 10:44 am

Willis
to clarify what I said, I hope you caught this comment?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/05/symmetry-and-balance/comment-page-1/#comment-2809000

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 4:53 am

Willis Eschenbach May 6, 2018 at 8:58 am

CO2 and water vapor, the two major greenhouse gases (GHGs), are the reason that the earth’s temperature is well above what would be expected from black-body calculations.

First the black-body calculations:
Willis Eschenbach May 6, 2018 at 7:15 pm

The area of intersected sunlight is πR^2, and the area of the earth is 4πR^2. So we need to divide the TOA perpendicular sunlight (~1360 W/m2) by 4 to give the average flux per unit area of the surface (~340 W/m2).

The sun is only shining on half the sphere at any time, so we need to divide by 2 to get the average flux per m^2. The dark side receives no sunlight so, its radiative balance temperature is 0K
(~3K if you want to consider Cosmic Background Radiation)
This gives ~680 W/m^2 average flux giving an average RADIATIVE balance temperature of ~331K.
Darkside 3k, so average radiative balance temperature for a blackbody receiving 1360 W/m^2 TSI is (331K + 3K)/2 = 162K
Rotation has no effect since no heat storage is specified for a blackbody.
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/15/6044.full
Applying albedo the black-body temperature for earth is ~150K and for the moon ~160K.
The day side temperatures of the moon are close to radiative balance temperatures (with some lag).
The night side is much warmer than radiative balance.
The reason the moon is ~40K warmer is some geothermal flux creating a “base” temperature of ~40K and some heat carried to the night side from the hot day side
The reason the Earth is ~140K warmer than radiative balance is that the deep oceans have a temperature of ~275K, fully created by geothermal energy. The sun only increases the surface temperatures some 15k above this temperature. The oceans also carry a lot of solar energy from the day side to the night side.

PS—your argument that CO2 can be ignored because of its small concentration (0.04%) is not valid.

Every molecule / atom of the atmosphere needs to have a certain energy that matches the height it is at since the atmosphere is in hydrostatic equilibrium against gravity. How it receives this energy is not relevant. (radiation, collisions, convection, evaporation)
CO2 plays a minor role in this distribution.

HenryP
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 5:12 am

Ben
excellent response!

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 7:30 am

henryp May 6, 2018 at 6:00 am

For example, has anyone ever done measurements of T [W/m2] going down into different levels of a mine?

The Geothermal Gradient is pretty well known imo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_gradient
Here is a nice example of different crust temperatures:comment image
A deep South African mine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TauTona_Mine

On a personal note: I had a class mate at the OLAN college [Holland] whose name was Ben Wouters. You would not happen to be that same person?

I’m a Dutchman, but the OLAN college doesn’t mean anything to me. So probably not.

Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 10:17 am

Ben
Many thanks for your all of your insightful answers and information. I figured that a lot of energy from earth must be released by volcanic activity into the water of the atlantic- and pacific oceans. Your comment on this made a lot of sense to me and is like part of a piece in a puzzle.
I figured that you must be Dutch, like me, and I recall now that Ben Wouters was always scoring higher than I did in the tests…so I am pretty sure you must be somehow related – what with the same name and all that. We are talking 1972 here, in Arnhem, so perhaps that shows a light on whether that could be anyone you are related to?

Matt G
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 11:53 am

CO2 and water vapor, the two major greenhouse gases (GHGs), are the reason that the earth’s temperature is well above what would be expected from black-body calculations.

Ben has hit the nail on the head. This myth unfortunately still continues to bubble on in climate science.
The reason why the Earth’s temperature is well above than expected is because of the oceans energy content warming all the planet. If it didn’t, during the night time temperatures would plummet well below zero centigrade on all the planets surface. Just water vapor alone is not enough to keep temperatures high enough and CO2 has no chance. This can easily be compared between a desert and marine climate in the tropics and polar desert with a marine polar climate. The high water vapor in the atmosphere are only because of the oceans.
The Greenhouse effect is really The Ocean effect because without it the planet would be much colder.
Back-radiation also becomes an idea from a set of myths when really it is just energy loss from the planets surface at a much reduced rate slowed down temporary. Clouds slow energy loss to the atmosphere and don’t increase energy like in these wrong back-radiation diagrams. Relative humidity increases at night cooling the air temperature so Back-radiation has nothing to do with it.
Energy content between long-wave and shortwave are hugely different and can’t be compared anywhere near equally.

Matt G
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 7, 2018 12:32 pm

the deep oceans have a temperature of ~275K, fully created by geothermal energy. The sun only increases the surface temperatures some 15k above this temperature.

Where there is some disagreement being geothermal energy only contributes to some of this, but solar energy warming the top 100 m of ocean still sinks down to deep depths warming the deep oceans too. With one example below being the thermohaline Circulation part of the AMOC.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor1.html
http://www.rapid.ac.uk/

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 10, 2018 11:56 am

Ben writes:
“The sun is only shining on half the sphere at any time, so we need to divide by 2 to get the average flux per m^2. The dark side receives no sunlight so, its radiative balance temperature is 0K
(~3K if you want to consider Cosmic Background Radiation)
This gives ~680 W/m^2 average flux giving an average RADIATIVE balance temperature of ~331K.
Darkside 3k, so average radiative balance temperature for a blackbody receiving 1360 W/m^2 TSI is (331K + 3K)/2 = 162K”
I get 331.3K + 3K over 2 is 167.15K
Add the residual subsoil heat on the dark side (/2) and you get the real lunar temperature. So nothing to do with it’s slow rotation, it’s rotation makes it warmer.
“The day side temperatures of the moon are close to radiative balance temperatures (with some lag).”
True, the sunlit side of the Moon is near to being in radiative balance with insolation.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 10, 2018 3:09 pm

Yogi Bear May 10, 2018 at 11:56 am

I get 331.3K + 3K over 2 is 167.15K
Add the residual subsoil heat on the dark side (/2) and you get the real lunar temperature. So nothing to do with it’s slow rotation, it’s rotation makes it warmer.

I assume you used 1366 W/m^2 for TSI, I used 1360.
I think geothermal also plays a role. The Hermite receives no sunshine at all, yet its floor temperature is ~25K. The flux Willis mentions nicely agrees with a 25K surface temperature.
The lat89 winter temperature seems to stabilize at ~40K after ~130 earth days without sunshine.comment image
Agree, the coldest situation is no rotation (or no heat storage)

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 10, 2018 3:18 pm

Matt G May 7, 2018 at 12:32 pm

Where there is some disagreement being geothermal energy only contributes to some of this, but solar energy warming the top 100 m of ocean still sinks down to deep depths warming the deep oceans too. With one example below being the thermohaline Circulation part of the AMOC.

Sorry missed your comment.
Would be very interested in data showing warm(er) water sinking to below the permanent thermocline.
One example is the Mediterranean Outflow Water, but this sinks only to ~800 -1300 meter.
The Thermohaline Circulation is driven by cold dense water sinking to the ocean floor , mostly around Antarctica (AntArctic Bottom Water) and the return flow by the geothermal flux warming this water at the ocean floor.

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 10, 2018 5:27 pm

My bad, the sunlit side also receives the 3K background, so 168.65K.

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Ben Wouters
May 10, 2018 5:33 pm

And I haven’t allowed for albedo on the sunlit side.

Derek Simmons
May 6, 2018 12:34 am

I really like your data analysis. I did have a comment though:
According to one of your link responses to Nylo, the CERES data plots their nested grid:
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/science_information.php?page=CeresGrid as 44,012 sections. I am assuming they are approximating somewhat equal surface areas. You had however mentioned 68,400 grid cells. It changes nothing in your analysis (so probably just a nitpick).

Derek Simmons
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 9:53 pm

I apologize. I missed that section

charles nelson
May 6, 2018 1:09 am

“Here’s the downwelling top of atmosphere (TOA) solar energy for the northern and the southern hemisphere:”
How could this figure be meaningful given the immense difference between the equator and the poles?
So could someone please tell me:
How, and where is this measured?
What form is this energy in, as it travels through the vacuum of space before it encounters the gases at the top of the atmosphere ?
Isn’t heat generated in the ozone layer…does Ceres photograph this too?
Answers on a postcard please….

Bill Treuren
May 6, 2018 1:12 am

Did I get that right the poles radiate much more than they receive and the equatorial regions receive more than they radiate.
Little wonder that open ocean as a substitute for sea ice is a massive energy pump.
We have seen the equatorial iris effect and we now see the polar pump to the greater universe and yet we still hear the words tipping point etc. ITS BUFFERED A LOT.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Bill Treuren
May 6, 2018 4:06 pm

…the poles radiate much more than they receive and the equatorial regions receive more than they radiate.
Little wonder that open ocean as a substitute for sea ice is a massive energy pump.

I’m trying to keep up here. Any surface radiates based on its temperature, regardless of latitude but the insolation is much less at high latitudes, so on balance the poles radiate more than they receive. That much seems right to me. But how do you conclude that the open sea radiates more than sea ice?
The only answer I can come up with is that the surface of the sea ice may be colder than or at least no warmer than 0°C, since that is its melting point, but the open sea surface may be warmer than 0°C due to ocean currents transporting heat into the polar region from warmer seas. The open sea has a much lower albedo than ice, but even with an albedo of zero, it won’t matter much because there is so little insolation at the poles. The extra heat absorbed is still less than the effect of radiation loss from a warmer surface?
Is that correct?
Wiki tells me that when you mention the iris effect, that is probably Richard Lindzen’s theory that warmer ocean temperatures in the tropics lead to less high cirrus cloudiness, allowing more IR to escape to space?
So what I think all this is saying is that earth’s climate is homeostatic. Each perturbation triggers effects that resist the change rather than triggering a runaway positive feedback. Unless anybody doubts that the earth is 4.5 billion years old, I don’t really see how they could believe in the possibility of a tipping point that leads to runaway heating. It would certainly have happened by now. We know that there was much higher CO2 in the ancient atmosphere at both warmer and cooler temperatures than today. If a little extra CO2 today risks runaway heating, how did we avoid becoming Venus’ twin when CO2 was at 2500 ppm?
Does anybody know what the warmist excuses are to explain this away? They must have something since we know that their theories are non-falsifiable.

LdB
Reply to  Rich Davis
May 6, 2018 7:37 pm

What is being left out is radiance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiance
In full summer in the polar regions on earth the sun remains visible for 24 hours but it’s at a low angle on the sky horizon of around 23 degrees however in winter there is no sun it’s permanent dark. The problem isn’t open sea radiates more than sea ice it is that in winter there is no sunlight to reflect because of the axial tilt it is in darkness. The ice wouldn’t be there in the quantities it is if the tilt didn’t exist.
You can’t really use the same simplification for both situations 🙂
For interest what makes this even tricky is that angle varies locally in the discussion above we considered a flat surface. Stick a pole in the ground which is at right angles and the face area of the pole sees a totally different angle. You see this with the moon which has an axial tilt of 88 degrees and craters at the south polar region may be in permanent darkness or light which makes it interesting to study.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_south_pole

May 6, 2018 1:27 am

All this is nice Willis. Really.
But, the science of climate is a lost cause until the political warfare can restore balance back to the Science (big S) and the science (little s) of studying earth’s climate. The charlatans at NOAA, NASA, Science mag, Nature mag have the reins (big S). The NSF under Obama (Holdren) has ensured little s tows the line. Gone are the Judith Curry’s from academia. A few remain, to be sure, at redoubts like UAH. They fight the good fight in a hostile academic world.
Trump and Pruitt have the US govt, but too many career hucksters like Gavin Schmidt, and Ben Santer remain untouched to work the Deep State corruption we see.
First, the US must solve the political problem. Screw up the political system, and nothing else matters, not even scientific truths you try to uncover with satellite data. Stalin and Lysenko showed that science is easily manipulated by political forces of the Left. G Schmidt, Ben Santer, Kevin Trenberth, and a host of academics all corruptly ignore the results you show, because they depend on politicians like Barack Obama to declare, “The science is settled” while they receive their paychecks, ala the taxpayers, and head to their next conference to speak and receive an award. That is how junk science is done… sadly.

May 6, 2018 1:28 am

WordPress once again ate my post.
#shadowbanned

TA
Reply to  joelobryan
May 7, 2018 6:21 am

Something ate three of my posts yesterday.

philsalmon
May 6, 2018 3:08 am
Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  philsalmon
May 6, 2018 5:40 am

As with many of these videos the Sound Engineers have to be heard and thus ruining the soft articulation of facts. How about close caption the words at the base of the picture so se all can appreciate the science. Or is it just me?

Stephen Cheesman
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
May 6, 2018 6:58 am

The spoken words are part of the original recording. Text captions worked very poorly on vinyl.

Mike
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
May 6, 2018 1:19 pm

Carbon Bigfoot
…..As with many of these videos the Sound Engineers have to be heard and thus ruining the soft articulation of facts. How about close caption the words at the base of the picture so se all can appreciate the science. Or is it just me?…..
No Sir! Me too.
Regards
Bahamamike

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
May 7, 2018 5:09 pm

Published on May 18, 2011
Maximum distance from the sun: 94 million 537 thousand miles
Minimum distance from the sun: 91 million 377 thousand miles
Mean distance from the sun: 92 million 957 thousand and 200 miles
Mean Orbital velocity: 66000 miles per hour
0rbital eccentricity: 0.017
Obliquity of the ecliptic: 23 degrees 27 minutes 8.26 seconds
Length of the tropical year: equinox equinox 365.24 days
Lenght of the sidereal year: fixed star fixed star 365.26 days
Length of the mean solar day: 24 hours and 3 minutes and 56.5555 seconds at mean solar time
Length of the mean sidereal day: 23 hours and 56 minutes and 4.091 seconds at mean sederial time
Mass: 6600 milion milion milion tons
Equatorial diameter: 7927 miles
Polar diameter: 7900 miles
Oblateness: one 298th
Density: 5.41
Mean surface gravitational acceleration of the rotating earth: 32.174 feet per second per second
Escape velocity: 7 miles per second
Albedo: 0.39

RicDre
Reply to  philsalmon
May 6, 2018 8:02 am

I am a fan of Vangelis but I forgot about this track. Thanks for linking to it. I’ll have to get out my Vangelis albums and sound tracks for Blade Runner and Cosmos and listen to them again.

May 6, 2018 3:26 am

My estimates of CS are under 0.5C/doubling, I’ll accept we got nearly the same answer.
What would be an interesting test is, if you could split the above freezing area into tropics and extratropics and see if there’s a shift between them.
A lot of surface energy in the tropics goes to evaporation, that is returned to space in the extratropics. I wonder if that shows up here as well.

philsalmon
May 6, 2018 3:30 am

If the poorly-named “greenhouse effect” were 100% perfect, for every additional watt per square metre (W/m2) of sunlight entering the system, the surface would radiate two W/m2—one W/m2 from the sunlight, and one W/m2 from the downwelling radiation from the atmosphere. Based on the ratio of the incoming radiation and the radiation from the surface, we can say that the overall greenhouse multiplier factor of the perfect greenhouse is 2.0.
On the face of it this looks like multiplying the sun’s energy by 2. This of course can’t be right. If all the photos coming in at the first pass were reflected, that means that they deliver zero energy to the earth. So it the atmosphere now reflects all these returning (first return) photons back down to earth’s surface (now the second time) – what would be different about the second landfall than the first? Nothing. 100% would be reflected again. And then reflected again – 100% again – by the atmosphere.
And so on ad infinitum. All the incoming light is endlessly reflected between the earth’s surface and the iron sky. With no energy absorbed in either earth or atmosphere. And thus the temperature of both would be absolute zero.
Am I missing something?

Reply to  philsalmon
May 6, 2018 4:23 am

Yes,You described it in the wrong way. The reflected sun insolation reflects back from the air, from the clouds and from the surface. It does not go back and forward for ever. About 30 %of all the insolation is reflected from the Earth ever having any warming effect and travelleng back into space for ever.

A C Osborn
Reply to  aveollila
May 6, 2018 4:29 am

I do not think that can be quite true, even the radiation refelcted from cloud tops has passed through the Atmosphere and must warm some Atmospheric atoms/molecules, similarly those reflected are also impacting on the atmosphere on their way out to space.
Warming the Atmosphere as they do also slows the heat loss to space does it not?

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  aveollila
May 6, 2018 6:17 am

**I do not think that can be quite true, even the radiation refelcted from cloud tops has passed through the Atmosphere and must warm some Atmospheric atoms/molecules, similarly those reflected are also impacting on the atmosphere on their way out to space.**
Very little of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed. Most of th warming occurs when the solar radiation is absorbed by land or water.

philsalmon
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 9:19 am

Thanks!

philsalmon
May 6, 2018 3:30 am

If the poorly-named “greenhouse effect” were 100% perfect, for every additional watt per square metre (W/m2) of sunlight entering the system, the surface would radiate two W/m2—one W/m2 from the sunlight, and one W/m2 from the downwelling radiation from the atmosphere. Based on the ratio of the incoming radiation and the radiation from the surface, we can say that the overall greenhouse multiplier factor of the perfect greenhouse is 2.0.
On the face of it this looks like multiplying the sun’s energy by 2. This of course can’t be right. If all the photos coming in at the first pass were reflected, that means that they deliver zero energy to the earth. So it the atmosphere now reflects all these returning (first return) photons back down to earth’s surface (now the second time) – what would be different about the second landfall than the first? Nothing. 100% would be reflected again. And then reflected again – 100% again – by the atmosphere.
And so on ad infinitum. All the incoming light is endlessly reflected between the earth’s surface and the iron sky. With no energy absorbed in either earth or atmosphere. And thus the temperature of both would be absolute zero.
Am I missing something?

Alan Tomalty
Reply to  philsalmon
May 6, 2018 6:41 pm

~50% of all absorbed photons get reradiated upwards and ~50% go back downward. So eventually all those original photons make it back to outerspace as lost heat . In the meantime the temperature goes up a little to compensate for increased IR that doesnt make it back out immediately. I have calculated that a doubling of CO2 would absorb enough photons to raise the temp by 0.4C hardly anything to worry about

Macha
May 6, 2018 3:59 am

Different sensitvity at South pole is due to ozone being isolated by polar vortex. This is not seen in North. Check how low the tropopause is and warming at 500 hPa. Ozone warming reduces clouds and allows more surface heating bu Uvv etc. All this and more is at. https://reality348.wordpress.com.
But it takes time to read and all too easily dismissed by conventional thinking prejudice. Are you up to it?!!???

A C Osborn
Reply to  Macha
May 6, 2018 4:32 am

Isn’t there also another reason why the Antarctic reacts the way that it does and that is a lack of atmospheric moisture?
The Dry Desert areas should also show a differnt reaction.

Macha
Reply to  A C Osborn
May 6, 2018 5:20 am

Good observation..and the point of raising ozone….what do you think causes moisture to dissapear??

Ron
Reply to  A C Osborn
May 6, 2018 6:13 am

Willis,
Thanks for providing the CERES info in a clear and concise manner. I think your work reinforces the conclusions of Lord Monckton, et al., regarding the basic assumptions adopted by mainstream climate science and offers an explanation regarding the response you have highlighted. Mainstream climate science apportions the entire climate feedback to non-condensing greenhouse gases instead of apportioning them between condensing, primarily water vapor which is by far the most abundant greenhouse gas, and non-condensing gases. In areas above freezing with abundant water, water vapor contributes to the greenhouse effect to a much greater degree than the non-condensing gases. In freezing climates the feedback response due to water vapor would be much less and therefore the relative response to changes in downwelling radiation would much more direct.

Reply to  Ron
May 6, 2018 7:13 am

Correct Ron, where its dry the noncondensing GHG’s help maintain temps, but do a very poor job compared to WV.
For the rest of the world WV sets the tone.
https://micro6500blog.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/observational-evidence-for-a-nonlinear-night-time-cooling-mechanism/

Macha
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 3:38 pm

Reading back I can see why you felt that way. Was not meant as a personal insult, more a challenge to open mindedness.. and link is also not to my idea…its a link to another climate observer. I’ll endeavour to do better.

Sara
May 6, 2018 4:57 am

Not nitpicking, Willis, but when you said this: “On the right we have we have the southern parts of Africa and South America …” – did you mean northern parts instead? Just asking. The southern parts are not as warm as the northern parts, per that heat map, that’s all.
On another note, It seems to me that it’s plain – from everything that is posted on WUWT about this warming cycle – that without the warming, insolation, and heat reflected back to the surface, we’d still be in a glacial maximum. Or maybe I’m misreading it all?
Just as an aside, three years in a row, we’ve had chilly springs. This one has been the latest yet to start trees leafing out. They finally did at the end of April. Please bring back the heat. I had to run the furnace again this morning, because of the chill. My gas company loves me, but I’d prefer to build up a credit on my monthly budget plan payment. Cheers!

Reply to  Sara
May 6, 2018 8:50 am

Sara.
The cold is permanent since it is already globally cooling. Next year it will be worse.
http://breadonthewater.co.za/2018/05/04/which-way-will-the-wind-be-blowing-genesis-41-vs-27/

Sara
Reply to  Henryp
May 6, 2018 1:20 pm

Henryp, no tornadoes in the US southwest (e.g., Oklahoma) and finding them clustered in the southeastern US is a sign of something. Something is definitely stirring.
I just hope it won’t be too hard on the Greenbeans and CAGWers, don’t you? (Snorrtt!)

Felix
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 1:25 pm

During the most extreme Snowball Earth intervals, global average temperature has been estimated at -50 degrees C. At such times, the whole earth would be akin to the polar deserts, with very low water vapor levels in the air. Cold also means dry.

Sara
Reply to  Sara
May 6, 2018 1:14 pm

Water vapor is becoming an issue, isn’t it? If there isn’t a high enough level in the air, there is nothing to reach the dew point, and that means moisture evaporating out of the ground, which is damaging.
I don’t know how it’s measured, but it seems to be rather volatile locally, e.g., high at night and too low (30% or less) during the day. This is NOT a good sign. Your lawn can begin to die in the space of two days, and your garden can fail to grow at all.
Keep putting this info on the blog, Willis. The more we know, the better.

Yogi Bear
May 6, 2018 5:27 am

“Given a change of 0.7 W/m2 for a 1 W/m2 change in incoming solar energy, this would indicate a temperature change in the unfrozen part of the planet of from 0.11°C per additional W/m2 at 30°C, to 0.16°C per additional W/m2 at 0°C.”
Not forgetting that changes in incoming solar energy would not be equal at the poles and the tropics.

May 6, 2018 5:29 am

I get different graphs using CERES data:comment imagecomment image
Are the lower latitudes missing from the Southern hemisphere in the graph above?
These complete graphs cover S 89.5 degrees through N 89.5 degrees at 1 AU.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 1:10 pm

My problem seems to be with linear integration over what is actually a spherical surface. Removed my “CERES” graphs.
This is a CERES graph from the website:comment image

Reply to  jonesingforozone
May 6, 2018 6:17 pm

Fixed the integration problem.
Used ellipsoidal values generated by the military-grade calculator at https://msi.nga.mil/msisitecontent/staticfiles/calculators/degree.html.
The CERES zonal flux values specified by the series -89.9, -88.5, …, 89.5 thus integrated:comment image
This is identical to the global flux values (does not require integration):comment image
Then, the graph for the Northern and Southern zones is:comment image
This is the graph of the longitudinal lengths given latitude:comment image

commieBob
May 6, 2018 6:08 am

The whole post ignores convection. From Judith Curry’s blog we have this:

If an increase in back radiation tried to exceed this temperature gradient near the surface, convection would simply increase until the constant gradient was achieved again. Back radiation exists, and is very large compared to other heat flows, but it does not control the surface temperature. link

“Back radiation … does not control the surface temperature.”
I highly recommend Dr. Curry’s above linked post. It shows how our understanding of the ‘greenhouse’ evolved.
If you read between the lines, Curry’s post also gives a clue about what the satellites are actually measuring. For a thorough examination of how CERES gathers data and how that data is processed, we have this link. The figure at the top of the paper gives an idea of the complexity of the process.
Willis’s Figure 11 gives negative values for “Surface Upwelling Radiation”. It’s based on calculated values and is unphysical. Similarly, the values for Average Surface Radiation and Average Available Solar Energy are already highly processed as well as being based in part on the same measurements. By the time we get to Willis’s calculations the error bars are going to be pretty big.

Reply to  commieBob
May 6, 2018 7:10 am

Dr Curry is wrong about that, Tmin sets the days clear sky temperature, and back radiation from water vapor in the middle of the night regulates Tmin to dew point.
It’s all nonlinear rate control via WV feedback.
https://micro6500blog.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/observational-evidence-for-a-nonlinear-night-time-cooling-mechanism/

commieBob
Reply to  micro6500
May 6, 2018 7:27 am

How do you explain Mars, Venus, Triton, and Titan? The temperature of rocky planets is explained, as a good first approximation, by downwelling solar radiation and surface pressure. link It’s mostly about lapse rates.

Reply to  commieBob
May 6, 2018 10:37 am

This doesn’t change that really.
It changes how surface temps are distributed as you go poleward, but doesn’t alter the average.
But if you don’t buy that pressure and solar define surface temps, and it really is a ghg effect, this defines how Tmin is regulated once its warm enough to start the water cycle. So since the water cycle is running, the CS to co2 doubling is a fraction of the Planck response.
What it doesn’t support is high CS values.
And I have looked at CS based on seasonal forcing and that’s what drives my <0.5C/doubling value.
Picture the difference between deserts and the tropics. Deserts represent the noncondensing GHG's only, or pressure/solar vs GHG's with WV.

bitchilly
Reply to  micro6500
May 6, 2018 3:16 pm

“Picture the difference between deserts and the tropics. Deserts represent the noncondensing GHG’s only, or pressure/solar vs GHG’s with WV.”
micro, that is a great concise way to demonstrate your point.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  commieBob
May 6, 2018 11:01 am

commieBob,
A quick read of the link you provided on the CERES processing should dispel anyone’s belief that this is settled science. Notably, there is (or at least was) disagreement on how to even take the measurements.
However, as I have argued previously [ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/12/why-albedo-is-the-wrong-measure-of-reflectivity-for-modeling-climate/ ] I believe that the CERES data only provide a lower bound on the total amount of light reflected from Earth. That is, the “upwelling” is principally surface-normal specular reflections and diffuse reflectance. The oblique (high angle, or near-glancing) specular reflections from water (or wind-swept ice) are not captured. Thus, “The reflected solar is the total upwelling sunshine at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that has been reflected from the clouds, the aerosols, the soil, the plants, the ice, and the ocean.” is essentially only retro-reflections and NOT total reflections!

Felix
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 1:36 pm

By “interpolated”, you mean made up to make alleged warming look “worse” than it really is.

Joseph Murphy
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 6:46 am

Very interesting post Willis, thank you! The above graph (T Avg. by Latitude: CERES/HadCRUT4) is striking. Am I interpreting it wrong or is that good evidence for poor interpolation for HadCRUT4 pole data?

Latitude
May 6, 2018 6:28 am

Now can someone explain why there’s global warming on Mars? There’s no SUVs on Mars, and Mars increased temps too

ossqss
Reply to  Latitude
May 6, 2018 10:16 am

But isn’t there a Tesla on the way? 😉comment image

Latitude
Reply to  ossqss
May 6, 2018 10:43 am

LOL…..that one made me laugh!

Reply to  Latitude
May 6, 2018 10:48 am

Is the CO2 already increasing on Mars, too?

JohnWho
May 6, 2018 6:36 am

“This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation,…”
Just curious – wouldn’t they also absorb down welling radiation?

commieBob
Reply to  JohnWho
May 6, 2018 7:20 am

Some of the Sun’s energy is indeed absorbed before it gets to the ground.
The big deal is that CO2 absorbs energy at specific far infrared (ie. long) wavelengths. Most of the Sun’s radiation is ultraviolet, visible light, and near infrared (ie. shorter) wavelengths. The ultraviolet is largely absorbed by ozone before it reaches the ground. Not much is absorbed by CO2 because most of the Sun’s radiated wavelengths are too short.
When the Earth radiates back to space, it does so at long wavelengths. (longer = colder, shorter = hotter) CO2 absorbs some of the energy at particular long wavelengths. Most of the energy leaving the Earth is unaffected by CO2. Most of the absorption is by water vapor. Here’s a good illustration.
It’s important to understand that the Earth radiates to space pretty much all the energy that it absorbs from the Sun. It doesn’t accumulate or lose a lot of energy long term. Even if atmospheric gasses absorb outgoing radiation, it means that the energy will move up the atmosphere and radiate to space at a greater altitude.
In other words, atmospheric absorption is just a delaying process.

Reply to  commieBob
May 6, 2018 7:30 am

CommieBob
I am sure you donot understand our arguments.
For proof that CO2 is (also) cooling the atmosphere by re-radiating sunshine, see here:
http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0004-637X/644/1/551/64090.web.pdf?request-id=76e1a830-4451-4c80-aa58-4728c1d646ec
They measured the re-radiation from CO2 as it bounced back to earth from the moon. So the direction was sun-earth-moon -earth. Follow the green line in fig. 6, bottom. Note that it already starts at 1.2 um, then one peak at 1.4 um, then various peaks at 1.6 um and 3 big peaks at 2 um. It all comes back in fig. 6 top.
This paper here shows that there is absorption of CO2 at between 0.21 and 0.19 um (close to 202 nm):
http://www.nat.vu.nl/en/sec/atom/Publications/pdf/DUV-CO2.pdf
There are other papers that I can look for again that will show that there are also absorptions of CO2 at between 0.18 and 0.135 um and between 0.125 and 0.12 um.
We already know from the normal IR spectra that CO2 has big absorption between 4 and 5 um.
So, to sum it up, we know that CO2 has absorption in the 14-15 um range causing some warming (by re-radiating earthshine) but as shown and proved above it also has a number of absorptions in the 0-5 um range causing cooling (by back-radiating sunshine). This cooling happens at all levels where the sunshine hits on the carbon dioxide same as the earthshine. The way from the bottom to the top is the same as from top to the bottom. So, my question is: how much cooling and how much warming is caused by the CO2? How was the experiment done to determine this and where are the test results?

May 6, 2018 7:38 am

“The increased downwelling radiation estimated for a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 W/m2.”
It’s not a downwelling radiation. It’s OLR at TOA. Not equivalent
“this would indicate that if solar radiation increased by 3.7 W/m2, we would see a temperature increase of 0.4°C to 0.6°C depending on the surface temperature.”
It’s not TCR or ECS since it’s not TOA fluxes.

Rich Davis
May 6, 2018 7:40 am

The increased downwelling radiation estimated for a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 W/m2. Ceteris paribus, this would indicate that if solar radiation increased by 3.7 W/m2, we would see a temperature increase of 0.4°C to 0.6°C depending on the surface temperature.

Willis,
Let me test my understanding here. Your conclusions are a bit opaque to me, no doubt my flaw.
I think that you are saying that this is evidence that for a doubling of CO2, with all other things being equal, we should expect no more than a 0.6°C increase in surface temperature in the coldest regions, 0.4°C in the warmest. The significance of that would be that the CAGW orthodoxy claims we would see 3°C or at least 1.5°C for a doubling of CO2.
Is that the correct take-away?
If so, it seems that an 8-fold increase in CO2 from the current 410ppm to 3280ppm, or a doubling, then a doubling again, and then a further doubling, would increase surface temperatures by about 1.8°C in the coldest regions, and 1.2°C in the warmest. The penguins would enjoy a heat wave from -30°C up to -28.2°C, melting nary an ice cube. In the tropics, a 30°C day might become a 31.2°C day. And even then, in the tropics a little more cloud cover will form from the increased evaporation, potentially reducing the rise (an example of not all things being equal).

lgl
May 6, 2018 7:50 am

Oh, where to start?
There is not 240 SW available at the surface, only 160 because of the reflection + maybe 40 indirectly as LW, first absorbed by the atmosphere, 200 total. Then the energy transport from the surface is more like 500, evaporation included. So, Gain=500/200=2.5 not 1.66
And this is only the beginning…

lgl
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 1:14 pm

Well, I don’t have your skills, nor your tools, and don’t know where to find the latent heat during CERES period, so I have used another dataset. http://virakkraft.com/Net_SW-vs-Total_Up_surface.pdf

lgl
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 3:27 pm

And because Total_up=Total _absorbed the amplification of the solar input is Total_up over Solar_absorbed OR Total_absorbed over Solar_absorbed. Doesn’t change the fact that the amplification is around 2.5

lgl
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 4:42 am

Doesn’t matter. I have plotted the initial or “raw” input versus the resulting input, and that is the amplification.

May 6, 2018 7:52 am

This is probably over your head, but, the Trenberth cartoon is just fundamentally meaningless. Stefan-Boltzmann applies to direct radiation, not to averaged radiation. Dividing 1366 W/m2 by 24/7 renders any subsequent Stefan-Boltzmann calculation physically MEANINGLESS.
Just because some piker at NASA does it too, don’t drink the Kool-Aid, it is not real. What really happens is far more complex. Averaging radiation by 24/7 is not what the Sun does, and is not what the atmosphere does, not even close.
“This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth. As a result, the earth ends up warmer than it would be otherwise.”
When CO2 absorbs LWIR it immediately thermalizes it, except high in the atmosphere where pressure is much lower.
The logarithmic effect of CO2 is essentially saturated at concentrations far below the 400 ppm we have today. CO2’s significant effect is at the TOA, where it increases the altitude at which the atmosphere can radiate freely to space, thus decreasing the temperature at which the atmosphere radiates freely, thus increasing the heat content of the atmosphere. The magnitude of this effect has never been successfully calculated.
“Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?”

Reply to  Michael Moon
May 6, 2018 8:48 am

Michael Moon: When CO2 absorbs LWIR it immediately thermalizes it, except high in the atmosphere where pressure is much lower.
Surely that could do with some elaboration. The amount thermalized must be a monotonic function of pressure — is that function known? And is it, as I suppose, monotonic? How “high” in the atmosphere must one ascend to find the region where more than 25% is radiated? Though not dense, there is a lot of CO2 from that level upwards. And if that level is not too cold, there is a lot of H2O from that level upwards as well.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 9:57 am

Yeah I started to quote the same words and was going to ask how Mr Moon thinks there could be any hope of discussion after that lead in. But it seemed like a waste of time.

JohnWho
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 2:15 pm

Well, to be fair, most of the atmosphere is over our heads.
Mostly.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 4:14 pm

I have mentioned this flaw in the Trenbeth cartoon once or twice before, but it seems to be the Zombie Graph, unkillable. Anyone on here who uses this flawed concept of averaging the incident radiation on the Earth’s surface and then using this average in a calculation involving Stefan-Boltzmann has demonstrated his or her ignorance of physics. S-B uses the fourth power of temperature, so dividing the flux by 4 and back-calculating a resultant temp is unPhysical.

charles nelson
Reply to  Michael Moon
May 6, 2018 2:04 pm

Well said Michael.
t’s finally dawned on me that Willis is always ‘averaging’ things that cannot be ‘averaged’ and mis-describing things then ‘measuring’ them (like the PLANET Earth as a black body…chortle) then wheeling out a few formulae which don’t much apply and then applying some meaningless ‘derivatives’ and producing a fuzzy looking graphs.
But let me leave you with these fascinating and useful facts….
Did you realise for example that the average height of a male human being is 5′ 9″ and 3/4?
Or that the global average temperature of a cup of coffee is 152˚F?

bitchilly
Reply to  charles nelson
May 6, 2018 3:27 pm

it is hardly fair to level that accusation at willis given he is only using the “data” provided by the “experts”.

May 6, 2018 8:26 am

Scatter plots representing how the planet responds to solar forcing are very revealing. The plots you have shown here are nearly identical to those I’ve produced from the ISCCP data. Most interesting is identifying what is linear to what, specifically that surface BB emissions are far more linear to total solar forcing then the surface temperature is. Many more scatter plots can be found here:
http://www.palisad.com/co2/sens
Each link points to a different scatter plot.

May 6, 2018 8:41 am

Willis Eschenbach, thank you for another enlightening essay.
How well is the reflected light sampled and measured? I am thinking of the light that “glances” off the N and S pole regions and off the oceans right after sunup and right before sundown, and likewise on land when the land is snow-covered. It isn’t reflected back “up” reversing the direction of the rays striking the surface.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 12:50 pm

Thank you for the link.

John Knapp
May 6, 2018 8:52 am

Hi Willis,
In establishing your “perfect greenhouse” number of 2 you state, “This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth.”
It was my understanding that most of the energy absorbed by the greenhouse gasses is transferred to the non-greenhouse gasses by conduction, not re-radiated in any direction. This then results in a physical transport of the energy upward through conduction and convection where at top of atmosphere greenhouse gasses would facilitate the outgoing radiation.
Thus an increase in greenhouse gasses at bottom of atmosphere would increase the transfer of energy to the non-greenhouse gasses and at top of atmosphere it would increase the rate of energy transfer back to the greenhouse gasses for out radiation with an increased conduction/convection component in the middle. It is not obvious to me what the net effect of that process would be but it seems that the number for a “perfect greenhouse” should be substantially less than 2.
Your thermostat theory of tropical storms would tend to say that you also believe that conduction/convection are major players in the greenhouse. Why should they be ignored here?

May 6, 2018 9:00 am

Doesn’t the temperature of Antarctica occasionally dip below the freezing point of carbon dioxide? What happens then? Does it “snow” out of the atmosphere and collect on the surface?

Alan Tomalty
May 6, 2018 9:36 am

My calculations per doubling of CO2 is 0.4C difference. This is based on total energy specific heat content of all the gases in atmosphere. I have submitted paper to Anthony Watts.

Reply to  Alan Tomalty
May 6, 2018 10:04 am

Alan
provide us with the link to your study?
I know A@ is very strict and your study / paper might not get published.

afonzarelli
May 6, 2018 11:22 am

Upwelling Surface Longwave Radiation
Available Solar Energy After Albedo Reductions

Willis, as the quintessential average joe, i’ve yet to come across the above terminologies. i have heard of the terms Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Absorbed Solar Radiation. Are these terms (OLR & ASR) essentially the same as the terms that you’ve presented? (yes, no, maybe so?)…
Thanx for all your hard work and dedication. i noted your absence in a couple recent solar threads. (i assume that the preparation of this post is the reason why?) It’s quite a piece…

bitchilly
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 3:34 pm

i may be wrong, but i could believe this essay of yours is more than capable of being written up and submitted to a journal willis.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 3:35 am

Willis
Your available solar energy (240 W/m^2) is equal to the absorbed solar radiation. At TOA, available solar energy is 342 W/m^2. At surface, it’s less than 240 W/m^2 due to absorption of the atmosphere

Richard G.
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 12:33 pm

“I get tired of the recurrent abuse I get on solar threads …”
Illegitimi non carborundum est.
P.S. Another great post, keep up the good work.

bit chilly
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 2:03 pm

point taken willis. keep up the great work.

May 6, 2018 12:28 pm

Willis, fig 4 strikes me as perhaps the most significant finding. There is no reason the hemispheres should be in balance. But they are. This points to new science.
This would also be an interesting check to apply to climate models.

Felix
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 6, 2018 9:31 pm

Just one of the many ways in which the GIGO GCMs don’t do clouds. “Parameterization”, ie making stuff up, simply doesn’t cut it.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 7:00 am

WOW!
This N-S symmetry is a Big Deal. As is the fact that climate models do not have this symmetry.
Frankly this symmetry calls the entire calls the entire radiative theory of surface temperatures into question.
For this symmetry to exists there MUST be a higher controlling mechanism over and above the radiative process.
In effect this symmetry is like the wobble in a planets orbit that signals there is an as yet undiscovered body.
This symmetry is not predicted by the climate models. Moreover it should not exist under current theories of climate.
This symmetry is STRONG evidence that CO2 is NOT the climate control knob. Something else is regulating climate and the N-S symmetry is its signature.
WOW. A very big deal!

May 6, 2018 1:15 pm

“This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth. As a result, the earth ends up warmer than it would be otherwise.
If the poorly-named “greenhouse effect” were 100% perfect, for every additional watt per square metre (W/m2) of sunlight entering the system, the surface would radiate two W/m2—one W/m2 from the sunlight, and one W/m2 from the downwelling radiation from the atmosphere. Based on the ratio of the incoming radiation and the radiation from the surface, we can say that the overall greenhouse multiplier factor of the perfect greenhouse is 2.0. (See my post The Steel Greenhouse for a discussion of this.)”
William Happer mentioned how an activated CO2 molecule is extremely slow to re radiate, as compared to giving up its energy to adjacent water vapor, N2, O2, molecules through collisions(thermalization) That means that convection immediately takes over. However, through collisions, and packets of captured radiant energy, the CO2 molecule can again collect enough energy to re radiate. The process repeats. These radiant/thermal energy transfers are buzzing near instantaneously.
I puzzle over how a doubling of CO2 in our mixed gas atmosphere can change the temperature profile to the degree that we can measure it.(As I understand it, a change to the dry lapse rate has not in fact been measured) I currently think the ideal gas law is most informative for thick mixed gas atmospheres, while the steel greenhouse is not.

charles nelson
May 6, 2018 1:49 pm

Willis says…Or consider how much ricin it takes to kill a human being … 0.002% of your body weight.
The fact that something is small does NOT mean that we can safely ignore it.
What a weary and ignorant argument…
If I was safely and happily consuming ….0,0018% of my body weight in Ricin…do you think the extra little bit would kill me?
Really?

Rich Davis
Reply to  charles nelson
May 6, 2018 4:55 pm

Charles,
Weary and ignorant? Why would you say that?
I don’t know if the quoted number 0.002% of body weight is an accurate number for ricin lethal dose in humans, but obviously it refers to the average response by some percentage of humans and not a certain result at an exact dose. If 50% of humans would die after ingesting 0.002% of body weight in ricin, then you would certainly not be happily consuming 0.0018% (or 90% of the dose that kills humans 50% of the time). You would probably recover, but you would be very sick. An extra little bit would increase your probability of dying. At some point there would be an amount that nobody would survive. Unless you have a genetic mutation that allows you to metabolize ricin that is.

Editor
May 6, 2018 2:28 pm

One can see “strange attractor” shapes in many of the scatterplots…..

May 6, 2018 4:33 pm

Poor Mr. Feht is going to accidentally click on Willis’s article, see the dreaded “Eschenbach” name, and BE FORCED to click the back button in revulsion — an utter waste of precious time and energy.
Another day ruined for the man.
Thanks Willis. Thanks a lot.

astonerii
May 6, 2018 6:38 pm

“Now, I found this to be a most curious graph. Here’s the curiosity. The greenhouse effect is the reason that the surface of the planet is warmer than we’d expect from simple calculations of the amount of sunlight hitting the Earth. This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth. As a result, the earth ends up warmer than it would be otherwise.”
How exactly can that even remotely be true? We have an atmosphere. Radiation is not the only way it can absorb energy to be warmed. It warms through conduction when the air passes over the heated ground. It then rises, taking that added energy into the atmosphere. Having that atmosphere all by itself is going to increase the temperature at the ground surface.

John Finn
Reply to  astonerii
May 7, 2018 6:42 am

No. It all boils down to how much energy enters the earth (AND it’s atmosphere) and how much leaves the earth (AND it’s atmosphere). This can only happen through radiation. Conduction and Convection can move energy through the atmosphere so it can make some places warmer than they would otherwise be (e.g. the poles) and vice versa but convection and conduction cannot ADD energy to the earth’s surface and the atmosphere overall.
Like it or not, the most likely explanation for the earth’s average surface temperature of around 15 deg C (rather than -18 deg C) is the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect impedes the flow of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) so that incoming solar radiation is greater than OLR. This means the earth continues to warm until OLR reaches equilibrium with incoming solar radiation.
As Willis notes it is claimed this equilibrium is reached when the earth’s surface is emitting 398 w/m2 compared to about 240 w/m2 solar giving a multiplier effect of 1.66. The effect of doubling CO2 will according to MODTRAN reduce OLR at the top of the atmosphere by 3.7 w/m2. To maintain equilibrium this would require the surface flux to increase by about 6 w/m2 (3.7 x 1.66) which leads to the NO FEEDBACK surface temperature increase of about 1 deg C.

Reply to  John Finn
May 7, 2018 11:43 am

No. Convection and evaporation rule the surface-to-atmosphere heat transfer.comment image

Reply to  John Finn
May 7, 2018 3:54 pm

Willis, I picked that graph from wikipedia and didn’t check the numbers. I kinda liked it because it’s an energy flow diagram, in which the width of the arrows is shown proportionally to the flow quantity (Sankey diagram). Now that you point it out, I see that it indeed shows that the reflected solar is 119 W/m2. Other budgets claim around 100 as you say.
Regarding your second point, it shows the net radiative heat exchange between the surface and the atmosphere – it doesn’t ignore anything. Like this one:comment image
All the references show that convection and evaporation rule the surface-to-atmosphere heat transfer.comment image
Here the radiative surface-to-atmosphere heat transfer is around 18 W/m2 (358.2 – 340.3) and the non-radiative is around 105 W/m2.

Reply to  John Finn
May 7, 2018 5:57 pm

Willis,
It is not junk – it shows the energy (heat) flows. Radiative heat transfer is radiation from the warmer surface minus the radiation from the colder surface.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_radiation#Radiative_heat_transfer
“In your new diagram (the upper of the two) it is 173 W/m2 entering and 173.4 leaving the surface … but if that were true the surface temperature would be -38°C … sorry, amigo, but that one is junk too.”
This is junk. Why would it be – 38 °C? It can be (almost) anything. 173.4 W/m2 is not thermal radiation from the surface according to S-B. It is total heat transfer from the surface to atmosphere and space. The surface still radiates according to S-B (~398 W/m2).
“You can see that in his the atmosphere does NOT radiate the same amount upwards and downwards.”
The atmosphere does not have to radiate the same amount upwards and downwards. Why would it? It has to radiate upwards to space what it gains from the surface (mostly non-radiatively) plus what it absorbs directly from the sun.
The Earth’s surface gets its heat from the sun (around 165 W/m2), it radiates directly to space around 40 W/m2, the rest it transfers to atmosphere, mostly by non-radiative means (around 105 W/m2) and around 20 W/m2 by thermal radiation.
You are confused by the atmospheric radiation to surface (back radiation) – it is NOT a heat input to the surface. Its origin is the surface itself.
Regards.

lgl
Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 12:26 am

John
I think Willis claims the effect of doubling CO2 will be +1 degC all feedbacks included (perhaps without the very slow ice sheet adjustments)

lgl
Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 12:40 am

Willis,
Doesn’t your two-layer atmosphere diagram here contradict this from the head post:
“Of course, in a real world, the multiplier factor will be less” (than 2)?
The atmosphere acts more like a multi-shell steel greenhouse than a single-shell. (except absorption <1 in each shell)

Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 2:44 am

Willis,
“Your claim is that in this diagram the surface is radiating at ~398 W/m2. Since according to the same diagram the surface is receiving only 173 W/m2 total, I fear that dog won’t hunt … it cannot be radiating 398 W/m2 and only receiving 173 W/m2. Not possible.”
Of course it’s possible. It’s radiating according to its temperature (and emissivity). The atmosphere is also radiating according to its temperature and emissivity back at the surface. This back radiation needs to be subtracted from the surface radiation to get the (net) radiative heat transfer at the surface. Add the non-radiative fluxes and it all balances out.
“It has to because of simple physics. The radiation is not directional. It is emitted in all directions, with about half going upwards and half downwards”
I am not sure what you’re claiming. What the atmosphere radiates looking up from the surface and what it radiates looking down from the TOA does NOT have to be the same amount.
“Hang on. Above you correctly said that the surface transfers some 398 W/m2 of energy to the atmosphere by radiation. Now you say it only transfers 20 W/m2 to the atmosphere by radiation. You were right the first time. Again you are confusing energy flows with heat flows.”
It only transfers around 20 W/m2 to the atmosphere beacause it radiates around 40 directly to space and the atmosphere radiates back around 340.
Roughly, 400 – 340 – 40 = 20.

Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 11:00 am

Willis, heat (or energy) fluxes are balanced at the surface. Radiative fluxes are not and do not have to be, because there is convection and evaporation. Roughly:
165 = (400 – 340) + 85 + 20
165 = 60 + 85 + 20
The surface absorbs around 165 W/m2 solar. The cooling fluxes are around:
60 W/m2 radiative heat exchange (400 – 340) and only 20 W/m2 is to atmosphere, the rest (40 W/m2) is radiated directly to space,
85 W/m2 evaporation and
20 W/m2 convection.

John Finn
Reply to  astonerii
May 8, 2018 11:30 am

edimbukvarevic May 7, 2018 at 11:43 am

No. Convection and evaporation rule the surface-to-atmosphere heat transfer. ,

You didn’t read (or understand) my comment. I made the point that convection and conduction move energy through the atmosphere. HOWEVER, convection and conduction cannot ADD energy to the atmosphere.
That can only be achieved by increased solar radiation or a reduction in OLR. Greenhouse gases reduce the flow of OLR to space.

Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 12:44 pm

John, it was your point that convection only move energy through the atmosphere and that it cannot add energy to the atmosphere that made me reply. That statement is wrong. Convective surface-to-atmosphere heat flux adds roughly as much energy to the atmosphere as the radiative one (LWIR). Evaporation from the surface adds roughly five time as much.

John Finn
Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 2:06 pm

Convective surface-to-atmosphere heat flux adds roughly as much energy to the atmosphere

But that’s just moving energy around. You need to think of the climate system as a whole – i.e. oceans, surface, atmosphere …etc. Solar energy enters at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) and leaves at TOA.
Without greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, energy would be radiated directly to space from the surface. Greenhouse gases impede the flow form the surface which means that incoming energy from the sun will be greater than Outgoing radiation (OLR) to space. This means the surface and lower atmosphere will warm (basic thermodynamics) until Incoming = Outgoing.
The fact that energy is also moved around by conduction and convection is not really that relevant to this process. Energy can only be emitted to space by radiation. Greenhouse gases do play a role in the rate at which energy is lost to space.

Reply to  John Finn
May 8, 2018 2:33 pm

Greenhouse gases do play a role in the rate at which energy is lost to space

The non-condensing ones, play a very minor part, as Deserts show.
What sets Tmin, is dew point, and that’s independent of the non-condensing GHG’s, and that’s why CS is much lower than estimated by most.

bill hunter
May 6, 2018 6:43 pm

It occurs to me that the curve you perceived in your data. . . .5w/m2 per 1w/m2 in Antarctica and the .72w/m2 per 1w/m2 in the unfrozen areas of the globe is reflecting the effect of convection, particularly the global convective cells transferring heat to the poles thus there is not much of a lapse rate at the poles so convection is severely limited at the poles while the additional 1w/m2 at mid latitudes and the equator are going to convect strongly and move more heat to the poles. Nothing fancy just heat doing what heat does.

bill hunter
May 6, 2018 7:05 pm

seems to maybe an interesting correlation between net available solar energy in figures 4 and 10 and ENSO over the years, which you noted. Would maybe make sense after albedo, but I am a bit puzzled over what that could have to do with TOA incoming. . . .is figure 10 correctly described?

rishrac
May 6, 2018 9:32 pm

I don’t know whether the satellite is picking that number or it is calculated. To get 239.7 w/m^2 you need a TSI of 1370. The NOAA TSI as of 1.22.2018 going back to 1985 as no higher than 1363/1364 with most of the readings between 1360 to 1362. At 1360 the calculated W/M^2 is 238.
Then are you assuming the orbit of the earth makes no difference in the calculation? It does when when I do the numbers.Are you using calculus to obtain an instantaneous value? And where? The S-B is too simple for that. It appears that it requires a static situation. Are you assuming TSI is an average at TOA or is it selected at some point. If it’s 1370 w/m^2 at perihelion then at aphelion it’s 1291 w/m^2. (1291 x (1-a)/4 = 226 w/m^2.
At whatever number you use the difference is about 4 C.

rishrac
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 8, 2018 4:51 pm

You don’t recognize this formula… ( 1370 x (1-a))/4 = 239.7 w/m^2. Which the next formula for black body radiation is (239.7)/(5.67 x 10-8) and the 4th root = 255 K. This is unfamiliar to you?
I have not seen any TSI that varies from 1370 w/m^2 to 1291 w/m^2. And that is the inverse power formula relating to the orbit of the earth. Are you telling me that the 4 C drop at aphelion is averaged? Or that the 1370 is averaged? Of course it’s really about 1360 w/m^2 which brings down the black body radiation to (1360 x (1-a))/4 = 238 w/m^2. So, (238)/(5.67 x 10-8) 4th root = 254.5 K. They’ve cooled the past and warmed the present. It’s a moving wave.
That 4 C drop causes climate changes that can not be averaged. And because of that, co2 responds to temperature.
In fact it was on this site last year or the year before the TSI was being reported monthly. And never ever was there a drop in TSI to reflect the orbit. In fact it has been discounted as the “orbit is nearly perfectly round and is not important “

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 8, 2018 5:35 pm

Otherwise these tiny variations would be swamped by the ~90 W/m2 peak-to-peak annual variation in TSI. Obviously, you didn’t know that. Now you do.

Nope, hadn’t thought of that, thanks.

Reply to  rishrac
May 8, 2018 5:31 pm

This site has daily tsi info, it does vary a reasonable amount, not sure if its 4C worth or not.
https://www.pmodwrc.ch/en/home/
It’s what I use to calculate station insolation. I calculate a unit value based on station lat, and then I can swap in whatever has the best solar, I use this, but since it’s of limited length(all of the space based ones are of course), I also average it, and use that for dates prior to the start of the series. Basically I produce two station insolation sets, one with the average, the other with only the average, no mixing of average and actual.

ren
May 6, 2018 10:11 pm

At the south, the stratosphere is near the Earth’s surface.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zt_sh.gif
At Concordia Station, only -68 C.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica/concordia-station/ext

May 6, 2018 10:34 pm

If anyone here had a FLIR camera I would have some work to be done. I found this sweet video on taken in Austria on youtube. Since date and time are provided, I could even determine surface temperatures at that place (5-10°C). Of course they were not interested in climatology, rather they just wanted to show their product.

Reply to  Leitwolf
May 7, 2018 4:21 am

What I’ve found is that when surface air temps are about 50°F, zenith temps are near -40°F. That lines up with this video. And clouds of any kind increase that temp. High thin ones a little, thick cumulus clouds return temps only 20 or 30°F cooler than surface temps. I routinely see clear sky temps 90° – 100°F colder than the surface.
What I want to see a FLIR video of the sky in the middle of the night when the cooling rate drops to near zero.
I expect to see it go from frigid to lighting up from water vapor latent heat being released.

Reply to  micro6500
May 7, 2018 10:52 am

Well that is the interesting question. We are missing any information on the altitude of these clouds. Probably they are relatively low, but even if they were just 1000m above the soil, they would be warmer than they should be. So is it IR emitted, or IR reflected???
If you have a chance to look at higher level opaque clouds, that cloud answer the question. Their emissions will sink according to their altitude and falling temperatures, but terrestrial IR reflected would stay quite stable. I would bet, that an opaque cloud at altitude will appear warmer in FLIR than it can be.

Reply to  Leitwolf
May 7, 2018 11:20 am

I’ve been “looking” with an 8u-14u ir thermometer for a few years now, and I presumed it was some of each(but good question), but they are always cooler than the surface, and all get cooler the higher/thinner they are.
I’ll have to try and see about looking at some opaque cloud temps. But I think I would have to compare thin vs thick clouds at the same altitude.
But finding any comparable clouds would be a first step.

Nylo
May 7, 2018 2:00 am

Willis,
“This gives a greenhouse multiplier factor of 398 / 240 = 1.66.
And that’s the curiosity because in Figure 8 the average multiplier factor is 0.72, well below 1.0. Because this multiplier is less than one, it would imply that the world should be much colder than it is …
How can we resolve this apparent contradiction? To me, it is evidence of something that I have said for many years. This is that the sensitivity of the surface temperature to the amount of downwelling radiation is not a constant as is assumed by mainstream climate scientists. Instead, it is a function of temperature. At temperatures above freezing, the surface upwelling radiation increases by about three-quarters of a W/m2 for each additional W/m2 of incoming solar radiation”.

This is an interesting finding, but I think that you are reading wrongly into it, or too much into it. While I totally agree that sensitivity is very likely dependent on the temperature, keep in mind the procedence of your data. The “adding of 1 extra W/m2 of available solar”, in your data, means actually moving to an area closer to the ecuator. It is not like if in the same area you suddenly increase the strength of solar energy. We all know that our planet’s radiation balance may or may not be in equilibrium as a whole, but it certainly is NOT in balance regionally. The tropical area is a clear net absorber and the poles are net emitters. This means that there is a great deal of heat being transported from the tropics to the poles, every second of the day. Your 1W/m2 increase of solar energy by moving closer to the ecuator comes together with an increase of how much heat the atmosphere and oceans are removing from the area and taking it further away towards the poles, it is an energy that depends a lot on the latitude. IF, to say something, in the new region with 1 more W/m2 of solar energy the oceans and atmosphere are removing 0.5W/m2 extra energy, then you are left with only 0.5W/m2 actual increase that would trigger the 0.72W/m2 response, meaning that the factor would be greater than one, not smaller. I have no idea what the actual numbers are, but for sure the effect exists and you are kind of ignoring it. It is NOT the same thing than what happens when you increase incoming energy by increasing GHGs in a given place, where you can assume that the ammount of energy taken away by atmosphere and oceans towards the poles stays the same.
I don’t know how to better explain the idea, I hope you understood what I mean. Best regards.

Reply to  Nylo
May 7, 2018 4:46 am

It is NOT the same thing than what happens when you increase incoming energy by increasing GHGs in a given place,

This is where all that stored energy in water vapor comes in, its stored until air temps near dew point, and then its released to replace the energy leaving the surface, as it’s trying to stop air temps from falling anymore than it has.
This is a very nonlinear process, and changes the rate of temp change at night. This process stops the temps from falling a lot more.comment image
At this site, on this night in Australia it stopped ~18°F of additional of cooling.

Nylo
Reply to  micro6500
May 7, 2018 4:58 am

micro6500, I am afraid we are talking about completely different phenomena. You are talking about how much temperatures change due to the radiation of energy or lack of incoming radiation. I am talking about the energy that moves away from some area due to the circulation of atmosphere and oceans and the fact that the air/water entering is hotter/colder than the air/water exiting. Willis’s initial calculation of the 0.72 factor assumed that the only thing that changed as he moves from one area to another in terms of energy are the incoming solar energy vs the outgoing longwave radiation, but this is not true, different areas have different ammount of energy loss/gain due to the movement of water and air into and out of such regions.

Reply to  Nylo
May 7, 2018 5:07 am

Fair enough. Thanks for clarifying.

Nylo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 9:22 pm

Thanks Willis. Now, correct me if I am wrong, but isn’t the 0.58 trend of figure 11 the wrong way to read things? I mean, you are saying that a watt per square meter of solar seems to cause 0.58 watts per square meter of surface radiation, when we know that the causality goes the other way round with El Nino events: changes in surface temperatures trigger changes in available solar energy (by modifying cloud cover). The delay between the two could be the reason why you see a weak positive correlation instead of negative.
In addition, given that we know that El Nino is initiated by a modification of air currents and reduced upwelling of colder waters, we can safely assume that temperature variations in El Nino are mostly caused by changes in how much heat is being transferred from the ecuator to somewhere else, be it the poles, or in this case, to the bottom of the ocean. By inhibiting cold water upwelling it is temporarily reducing the temperature difference between the water that enters the area and the water that leaves the area. The thing is that if the change in available solar energy is not the only thing that is changing in the energy balance, then it is not correct to assume that it is the only thing triggering the change in surface emissions.
Best regards.

May 7, 2018 4:59 am

Have you read this one: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2014RG000449 . Very interesting paper coming to very similiar conclusions and a test of GCM: ” …models fail to produce the same degree of interannual constraint on the albedo variability nor do they reproducethe same degree of hemispheric symmetry.”

Reply to  frankclimate
May 7, 2018 8:18 am

Symmetry is not compatible with the LIA being a northern hemisphere only climate feature.

Reply to  frankclimate
May 7, 2018 8:21 am

Did any climate theory predict hemispheric symmetry? If so it needs to be dusted off and moved ahead of the radiative transfer theory.

Reply to  ferdberple
May 7, 2018 11:15 am

ferdberple
my results of analyses of 54 weather stations shows no warming in the SH.

bitchilly
Reply to  frankclimate
May 7, 2018 3:08 pm

interesting paper frank. thanks for the link. some strong claims in there for a period of monitoring that doesn’t even cover quarter of a pdo or amo.

May 7, 2018 8:26 am

Did any climate theory predict hemispheric symmetry? If so it needs to be dusted off and moved ahead of radiative transfer.

PRDJ
May 7, 2018 9:17 am

Willis or someone else competent and with the time willing to take on this question.
I’ve followed the “greenhouse” series by Willis, beginning with “The Steel Greenhouse”, “Glass Planet”, and finally the current “Symmetry and Balance”. While reading through the excellent debates following the “Symmetry…” discussion and the relationships to ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc., I made the links with present topics I am teaching in my Physical Science and Environmental Science classes ( I am a HS teacher) about heat transfer.
I began thinking about the annual pulses of cold saline waters into the deep oceans during each hemisphere’s alternating winters. What I lack is a firm grasp or even a broad estimate of the volume of water that will be cooled enough during the northern and southern hemispheres winters that sinks to the abyss, flows generally toward the equator and displaces the warmer surface waters poleward.
Is there enough variability involved in this process on an annual timescale to significantly effect the strength of the ENSO cycles by the equatorial upwelling strength?
I eyeballed the 3 to 5 years leading up to the 2015/16 big El Nino, as the thought of the massive expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice occured during those years prior to the rapid reduction in sea ice in more recent years, and noted that there was correlation to the increase in sea ice and the ramp up to the strong El Nino.
There also appears to be some correlative trends around the ’98 El Nino.
What do you see when the actual data is tortured into its confessions?

Richard G.
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 3:22 pm

W., an erratum. I believe the unit of measure is a Sverdrup (Sv)= 1 million cubic meters per second. Sievert is a measure of radiation( which I think you know.) Cheers.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  PRDJ
May 8, 2018 1:18 pm

PRDJ May 7, 2018 at 9:17 am

I began thinking about the annual pulses of cold saline waters into the deep oceans during each hemisphere’s alternating winters. What I lack is a firm grasp or even a broad estimate of the volume of water that will be cooled enough during the northern and southern hemispheres winters that sinks to the abyss, flows generally toward the equator and displaces the warmer surface waters poleward.

Suggest to watch this documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpFryXQbVEA
The whole documentary is fascinating. From ~35 mins on Antarctica is discussed, including the formation of AntArtic Bottom Water.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 3:17 pm

Willis, Your chart reminded me of my now likely infamous 🙂 chart, I was going to repost it in case anyone forgot, but out of kindness and fear of being lynched(mostly the latter) I’ll just include the link upthread.
Earth’s temp profile, and the associated net radiation flow are quite interesting, and insightful.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/05/symmetry-and-balance/#comment-2809726

Matt G
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 4:03 pm

His geothermal heat and moon calculations were wrong, but the conclusion was correct for the wrong reasons. Water vapor and CO2 doesn’t explain any of the planets large surface temperature differences but, the oceans and solar insolence explain all. Nailed on the head as it’s the oceans, not so much water vapor and CO2.
If all the heat could be released from the oceans suddenly went into the atmosphere at once there would be nothing alive left on planet Earth.

Reply to  Matt G
May 7, 2018 4:23 pm

WV couples the ocean SSTS changes to the land masses.

Nylo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 7, 2018 9:58 pm

+1000, almost perfect reply. I may have added a few things extra but this is more than enough. So many bad assumptions by Ben!

Reply to  Nylo
May 8, 2018 12:47 am

Nylo
If you can just fill us in on how you measured the amount of energy being added to the oceans due to volcanic avtivity? What we now see happening in Iceland and Hawaii is only a small area….
The atlantic- and pacific rims are enormous areas where there is continous volcanic activity at the bottom.
Ben is right and I agree with him. But I dont think we can prove much because there simply is no credible data.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 8, 2018 12:50 pm

Willis Eschenbach May 7, 2018 at 2:15 pm

Rotation has no effect? I’m sorry, but unless you are going to average the sun over the entire surface, rotation absolutely has an effect.

An ideal blackbody has NO heat storage / conductivity. So rotation indeed has no effect in this case.
Acording dr. Brown:

Now make the non-rotating sphere perfectly non-conducting, so that every part of the surface has to be in radiative balance. What’s the average temperature now? This is a better model for the moon than the former, surely, although still not good enough. Let’s improve it.

Not. Things are nowhere near that simple. See the link at the end of this comment.

Dr. Brown seems to agree with my ideas about ideal black-bodies.
Measured moon temperatures (Diviner project):comment image
https://www.diviner.ucla.edu/science

And the night-time temperature per Ben should be -113°C, but in fact it is about -190°C.

3K is ~-270C. Where did you read -113C?

This is total nonsense. The geothermal heat flux of the moon was measured during the Apollo mission, viz:
Anyone who believes that a heat flow of 14 – 21 milliwatts per square metre (0.041 to 0.025 W/m2) will heat the surface by forty degrees as Ben claims shouldn’t quit their day job …

A blackbody at 24,7K radiates away the GF of 21mW/m^2. I used 40K since the nighttime temperature at lat89 seems to cool to ~40K after ~130 earth days without sunshine……
A BB at 40K radiates some 145mW/m^2, so possibly after a much longer time without sunshine the moons surface would cool to ~25K. The Hermite crater near the pole has a temperature of ~25K.

IF the temperature of the oceans were ~ 275K maintained by geothermal heat, it would also have to be losing the same amount of heat. Per the S-B equation and assuming an emissivity of 0.96, that means it would be losing through radiation/sensible heat/latent heat a total of 310 W/m2.

I’m not sure how you envision the deep oceans losing any energy to the solar heated surface layer.
The GF of ~100 mW/m^2 is transferred to water that is directly in contact with the ocean floor. To lose this energy that water has to be transferred to the surface, this is done by the Thermohaline Circulation that resurfaces at very high latitudes. Conduction from cold, deep water to warm surface water is NOT happening.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL036078

And for Ben’s theory about how the ocean is heated to be valid, the heat flow would have to be no less than 310 watts per square metre …

Seems you do not understand what it takes to MAINTAIN the temperature of an object.
The oceans where (close to) boiling when they came into existence, simply because Earths surface was mostly bare magma. Since that time all it takes to maintain their temperature is supplying the energy they lose. The 100 mW/m^2 is almost enough to do that (we have seen cooling deep oceans the last ~90 million years).

It points out that you can’t calculate the blackbody temperature it with a couple of simplistic assumptions as Ben has done.

Suggest to re-read dr. Browns post, since he mentions simple black body calculations as a starting point. Real world has nothing to do with blackbody / radiative balance calculations. Earth is (very) close to a balanced ENERGY budget, nowhere near RADIATIVE balance.
Around noon in the tropics we may say ~1000 W/m^2 solar reaching the surface. Temperatures of ~364K that would be the radiative balance temperature are not found on Earths surface.

Chic Bowdrie
May 7, 2018 4:31 pm

Willis,
This post has provided some great data. Lot’s of food for thought.
My interpretation of the warmer temperatures increasing only 0.7 W/m2 of upwelling surface radiation for every 1 W/m2 of available solar energy is that the IR-active gases are cooling the surface and moving the heat upward and poleward. In contrast, the upper latitudes are warmer than they would otherwise be and able to radiate away more W/m2 than received by direct sunlight.
Other than that, I don’t think the data can be used to explain anything about the role of CO2 or water vapor. Without them the atmosphere wouldn’t be as warm as it is now, but also not as cold as a black body. The reason is that solar insolation would still warm an inert atmosphere and without the IR-active gases, there would be no way for the atmosphere to cool, other than “back” conduction at night. The temperature fluctuations would be large and, because of Holder’s inequality, the average temperature would be lower than our current atmosphere, although not as low as predicted by S-B calculations.
I also think you haven’t interpreted Ben Wouter’s calculations correctly regarding black bodies and geothermal heat. As an example, I think he was saying that some heat is carried to the night side from the day side, because the ground has absorbed energy during the day and it is gradually released during the night. You seem to attribute all of Ben’s “40K warmer” to geothermal as opposed to geothermal plus carryover from the day side.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 9, 2018 1:56 am

Willis Eschenbach May 7, 2018 at 6:35 pm

Chic, if you believe anything Ben said about blackbodies or the moon after reading Dr. Brown’s post, you are beyond my poor power to add or detract.

Let me remind you of your request in the main post:

AS USUAL, I politely ask that when you comment on someone’s words, you QUOTE THEIR WORDS EXACTLY.

Darkside radiative balance is 3K, or -270°C … and in fact it is about -190°C, a difference of 80°C.
He hand-waves this away with a fatuous claim of a non-existent 40 W/m2 from geothermal and “some heat carried from the nightside from the hot day side.

What I actually wrote:

The night side is much warmer than radiative balance.
The reason the moon is ~40K warmer is some geothermal flux creating a “base” temperature of ~40K and some heat carried to the night side from the hot day side

40 W/m^2 refers to an energy FLUX. 40K refers to a temperature. Very different things.
see eg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_flux
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature
The average lunar temperature as measured by the Diviner project is ~197K.
Night time average temperature seems around 80K.
This means the actual average temperature for the day side must be 314K (= 41C)
According your own calculation my numbers result in 46C, a whopping 5C difference, which can be easily explained by the fact that the dayside is not evenly heated (Holders inequality).

But remember, his calcs for the dayside only show 45°C, while the real temperature is 90°C. So there is no spare heat in his calculation to carry to the night side …

Where does your 90K average dayside temperature come from??
Again I suggest to actually read and understand dr. Browns post. It should clear up at least some of your misunderstandings.

Nylo
Reply to  Chic Bowdrie
May 7, 2018 10:06 pm

Chic, regarding the part of your post already cited by Willis, Ben especifically mentioned the opposite of what you attribute to him: “Rotation has no effect since no heat storage is specified for a blackbody”.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Nylo
May 8, 2018 5:34 am

I can’t speak for him, but I think he was initially referring to a black body which has no heat storage. Then he explains why actual moon temperatures are different because it does have heat storage:

Applying albedo the black-body temperature for earth is ~150K and for the moon ~160K.
The day side temperatures of the moon are close to radiative balance temperatures (with some lag).
The night side is much warmer than radiative balance.
The reason the moon is ~40K warmer is some geothermal flux creating a “base” temperature of ~40K and some heat carried to the night side from the hot day side

That is what prompted my original comment. I was attempting to smooth some common ground that seemed disturbed by misunderstandings.

Nylo
Reply to  Nylo
May 8, 2018 10:07 am

Willis, “This is 590 W/m2, which corresponds to 46°C. In fact the moon has a daytime temperature of about 90°C. So his daytime claim is not true”.
Are you sure about that? I know it does reach 90ºC, and even more, but that is not its average day side temperature, AFAIK. Not all of the day side of the moon is at or near 90ºC. I bet it is far less near the poles where incident light comes at a very low angle, and also less “early in the morning” for the same reason.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Nylo
May 8, 2018 3:20 pm

Willis,
You’re doing a great job with these creative and instructive posts and answering so many comments. However, I did read Dr. Brown’s post again and I find no serious discrepancies between the points he makes there and Ben Wouters’ comments. They both flip back an forth between black body and real planets. He has since responded to some of your criticisms and I’ll be interested to see how that plays out.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 8, 2018 5:21 pm

“This disease is beyond my practice”

That’s why they call it a practice. 😉

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
May 9, 2018 6:42 am

Willis, I was thinking about the surface radiation rate referenced multiple times here, as well as the various down welling sources, When I do all of my energy calculations, I do a 2 body equation, and use my measured temp from my IR thermometer, which is the BB temp over 8u-14u. My thermometer’s pyrometer integrates this energy, and then looks up that value in a table to report a temp.
Even in the optical window it’s over 200k, so even there, the surface never see the 3K of space, and the main contributor in the window is TPW, and with a calibration that temp can directly map to TPW.
Obviously the moon is nothing like this.
I also recall someone mentioning that the correct approach to the calculations is to use the schwarzschild equation, indeed it is not an easy problem to solve.
One of the reasons I like to take measurements of stuff. Including the temp straight overhead.

Reply to  micro6500
May 9, 2018 8:01 am

Yes. Always remember that you cannot calculate that which has never been measured.
Nobody has actually measured even if there is a + GH effect. My actual results show that it has been cooling
http://breadonthewater.co.za/2018/05/04/which-way-will-the-wind-be-blowing-genesis-41-vs-27/
So. There is no man made warming. We cannot have a calculation or election that says anything else.

Reply to  Henryp
May 9, 2018 10:08 am

In quantum mechanics all possibilities exist that have a probability, even if that probability is very slight, it’s only when a measurement is taken that it is actualized.
I haven’t gotten to no effect, but I am at the point that it’s so small that even if we burned the entire known reserves of fossil fuels, we couldn’t damage the planet.

Reply to  micro6500
May 9, 2018 10:35 am

Micro.
That is exactly what my result is saying…. any AGW is too small to measure compared to the natural forces at work
Bless you.
H.

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Nylo
May 10, 2018 12:17 pm

Willis writes:
“But remember, his calcs for the dayside only show 45°C, while the real temperature is 90°C. So there is no spare heat in his calculation to carry to the night side …”
You got that backwards, with a warmer day side, the night side would have to be colder for an average of 197K. You are confusing peak daytime temperature with average daytime temperature.

Ben Wouters
Reply to  Nylo
May 10, 2018 3:26 pm

Yogi Bear May 10, 2018 at 12:17 pm

You got that backwards, with a warmer day side, the night side would have to be colder for an average of 197K. You are confusing peak daytime temperature with average daytime temperature.

Seems Eschenbach is confused on just about anything on this topic.
Only reason for his outrageous reaction against me I can come with is that he began to realize that his beloved Greenhouse Effect does not exist.
He doesn’t seem to have the decency to react on my comments or to apologize for his villain remarks.

May 7, 2018 9:49 pm

Willis,
This downward radiation thing.
Suppose that some upward radiation is intercepted by mechanisms like CO2 ones, that cause isotropic re-radiation. Half goes off to space, half goes back to earth.
Earth then emits the next phase of radiation. Some is intercepted by mechanisms like the CO2 ones, that cause isotropic re-radiation. Half goes off to space, half goes back to earth.
Rinse and repeat.
Here we have a series where the return to earth each phase is 1/2, then 1/4, then 1/8 … of the original. This series sums to 1, meaning that although the mechanisms might exist, they result in all of the radiation, the sum to 1, getting back to space. If this is correct, why is there a need to invoke the mechanism in the first place?
P.S. This topic sends my mind into a block every time I try to analyse it. Hope you do not think I am ignorant, I just can’t seem to find explanations that satisfy. Geoff.

Nylo
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
May 7, 2018 10:22 pm

Geoff, of course in the end the energy that leaces the Earth is equal to the Energy entering from the sun. What changes is that the surface needs to radiate a lot more because not all that it radiates manages to escape. And to radiate more it needs to be at a higher temperature. In the end you will have the same ~240W/m2 escaping the Earth that enter the surface from the sun. But to get that energy out, the surface must radiate away 398W/m2, meaning it must be considebly hotter than without GHGs. The surface remains in equilibrium despite radiating that much, because the surface does not receive energy only from the sun, it also receives it from the atmosphere due to GHGs. There are ~160W/m2 being received by the surface that do not come directly from the sun. Of the ~400W/m2 radiated by the surface, 160 are coming back and the remaining ~240 escape to effectively counter the incoming solar energy.