Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I see that there is some confusion over terminology in the climate field. In response, I’ve put together a list of common terms, along with what far too often they mean in climate science. So without further ado, here’s my climate dictionary.
TERM DEFINITION
an expected result of global warming — “We predicted warming and got a heavy snowfall instead”.
anthropogenic — see “human fingerprint”.
anthropogenic change — “It’s warmer than usual”.
anthropogenic climate change — “Weather we don’t like”.
autocorrelation — “Say what? We don’t have to deal with that”.
Bonferroni correction — see “autocorrelation”
carbon dioxide — “The secret knob that controls the climate”.
cause — “Greenhouse gases”
climate — “It’s warmer than usual”.
climate change — “What ‘global warming’ became after we repeatedly predicted warming and got heavy snowfalls instead”.
climate feedback — see “natural variability”.
confounding factors — “Things that we choose to ignore.”
coupled non-linear chaotic system — ” y = ax + b “
effect — “dangerous anthropogenic global warming”
ever — “qualifier of superlatives to indicate things that haven’t happened since the Earth was first formed in 1970”.
external forces — see “other factors”
human fingerprint — “We can’t explain what caused it, so it must be from people acting badly”.
hundred-year flood — “Any flood recurring more than one news cycle apart”.
Industrial Revolution — “The time of the climate Eden when the temperature was exactly right”.
IPCC Conference of the Parties — “A recurring party attended by only the wokest of the woke”.
it is well known — “I believe this”.
it’s a boundary value problem — “This depends on future boundaries we can’t predict but we’ll act like we can.”
multiproxy study — “We left out the proxies that don’t agree with our theory”.
natural climate fluctuation — “We don’t know why it goes up and down”.
natural variability — “We have no idea what the cause was”.
naturally occurring dynamics — “Something happened that we can’t explain”.
other factors — “Deus ex machina”.
phase reversal — “Cause and effect just went 180° out of phase for no reason”.
predicted sea level rise — “Run for the hills! We’ll all be drowned!”
projections — “It’s a forecast but we don’t stand behind it”.
proxies show — “One tree in Yamal had this to say”.
regime change — “Cause and effect just went 180° out of phase for no reason”.
renewable energy — “This solution requires extensive subsidies”.
requires further study — “Give us more taxpayer money”.
social cost of carbon — “Our analyses will completely ignore the benefits of fossil fuels and the greening of the planet”.
the effect of various lag times — “Things that don’t line up can be made to line up”.
weather — “It’s colder than usual”.
well within expectations – “It’s colder than usual”.
Finally, we have the IPCC Likelihood Scale:
Virtually certain – “All my cool scientist friends agree”.
Very likely – “We really hope this is true”.
Likely – “Two climate models out of three agree”.
About as likely as not – “Nobody has a clue”.
Unlikely – “This outcome offends us”.
Very unlikely – “We really don’t want you going down that path”.
Exceptionally unlikely – “Stephen McIntyre said it first so it can’t possibly be true.”
Best to all,
w.
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🙂 but true.
Off Topic:
Well maybe not.
There’s a new “Sea Level Report Card” study that is making the rounds in media outlets:
Sea-Level Report Cards
Tide gauge data is being extrapolated from 1969 (not 1968 and not 1970 but 1969) out to 2050 for 32 tide gauges Maine to Alaska.
Apparently extrapolation of time lines shorter than the existing data is in vogue.
ECS = Exceptionally Conflated Secrets
I presume you admire Ambrose Bierce, Willis.
Hey, you gotta admire “The Devil’s Dictionary” …
w.
Yankee: no such term. see Damnyankee.
Richard G.,
As a born and bred southerner, I respectfully disagree. The difference between a Yankee and a Damn Yankee is that Yankees go home.
Peace (n.): A period of cheating occurring between two periods of fighting.
Off topic but amusing, “The Godling’s glossary”
http://www.davekrieger.net/Glossary/A.shtml
There’s another one in an adjacent wuwt post: Climate Justice—–ie——-“give us money”.
Thanks, Jim. I’m adding that one, or something like that, to the head post …
w.
How about adding “paramaterization” or “paramaters”. These are the infamous fudge factors used to force the climate model equations to line up with historical data.
PDO = Painfully Damaging Observations
I will stop. Nice job Willis!
I always try to reduce things down. Weather can be reduced down to Precipitation, wind and temp. Climate is the range of these three factors in a given region. simple.
Humidity and sky conditions (i.e. cloudy, sunny, etc) are not included?
I consider relative humidity and clouds as precipitation. Helps to simplify things.
h
Duke,
Keep your day job.
My father used to live up north. He used bucket of water as thermometer.
……And ‘normal’ is a range for each whereas ‘average’ is a specific number for each. And don’t forget humidity. Without humidity the so-called ‘greenhouse’ effect is virtually zero.
ROFL but it’s all true!
guide to strawmanning is a better title.
Straw Manning? He looks more like the Cowardly Lion.
“StrawMANNing”
Mikey likes it!
You missed one: “Climate Denier” = “Someone who knows the scientific method and can think logically.”
coupled non-linear chaotic system — ” y = ax + b “
Moved to the head post …
w.
The reason why the PhDs can get away with that equation for a non linear system is that they give the coefficient of x (which is “a” ( in the equation above )) magical qualities. In some of their equations a can even be negative. The standard model basic equation for global warming is
Heat anomaly = @ur momisuglyT + Heat forcing
The Heat anomaly is a fictitious number and is only non zero if not in equilibrium so they set it to ZERO to have an equilibrium
That means that -@ur momisuglyT = Heat forcing
Since T is in K and Heat forcing is in watts/m2 they assign the units of @ur momisugly to be (watts/m2*K)
Okay so the 2 terms are now in the same units but at equilibrium it means as Heat forcing goes up the left side will always be negative. Doesnt make sense so to make it work in the climate models they had to put the coefficent positive. Voodoo math
That should be y = a.log(x) + b….
BUT there it is,
Real Sums’n’stuff are too hard, that’s why I became a Climb-it Sine-tits.
http://vps.templar.co.uk/Cartoons%20and%20Politics/NoWindTurbines_3.jpg
You left out “tipping point.” = The point of no return that occurs when nobody alive now will ever see it.
Mmm … close, but it’s lacking something. I do like your idea of defining “tipping point”, I’d missed that one … how about
climate tipping point — “An invisible cliff we’re going to march over to our deaths any day soon. Trust me.”.
Better, I think, but probably that’s just me …
The crazy thing about “tipping points” to me is that the only way we see the cliff is after we’ve gone over it. We look back at something that has a huge swing in some climate variable and we say “Yep. Sure ‘nuf. That was clearly a tipping point.”
However, that explains nothing. It’s just calling a particular cliff a “tipping point”. That’s naming, not explaining
So we name certain past events “tipping points”. But looking into the future is an entirely different matter. I know of no one who can even begin to define what the signs of an approaching “tipping point” might be. What will be the visible evidence of the impending tipping? How will we know the end is near? Will our old men dream dreams, and our young men see visions? What are the forerunners of impending doom? Nobody seems to know what such an approaching cliff might look like, they just say the magic incantation “tipping point”.
w.
Tipping point – “NOAA adjusting the record”
Willis, your comment is spot on – “The crazy thing about “tipping points” to me is that the only way we see the cliff is after we’ve gone over it” as it captures the essence of the use of the term – it is a point we have already passed, probably.
Tipping point – any numerical value on an undefined scale that has already been reached, or will be reached momentarily, about which nothing can be done because it is already too late.
Tipping point – the time last year where we all died
We can make the invisible cliff disappear if you give us enough money.
“Tipping Point” – scary sounding name given to imminently likely thresholds which were exceeded many times in the past without any of the supposedly awful consequences.”
Tipping Point = (past tense) “It’s still not too late to send us money.” (present tense) “Our projection says send us money now or else!” (future tense) The point where the projection trips over reality.
Tipping Point – the Point at which luxury liners flip upside down when hit by a tidal wave caused by global warming.
Tipping point – when you hand over your cash.
Tipping point – suspension of democracy and free speech to save the planet.
You can’t see a tipping point just by looking at the history. Example: A tipping point determines whether you catch your train. Your history either records you sitting in the train, or sitting in a waiting room. To determine that there was a tipping point, you need a time table.
You forgot:
Robust — “Good enough to get some headlines and another grant.”
Wrong:
Robust – “Gossamer is more solid”
Nor’easter — “New England can expect up to three feet of fresh anecdotes.”
LOL!
Post hoc ergo propter hoc — “huh?”
“Ante hoc ergo propter hoc” = “the relationship between CO2 and warming is complicated” (see “complicated”)
“complicated” = “Al Gore just finished using Mike’s Nature trick to hide the lag”
Climate sensitivity — “Your nipples are showing.”
*turns computer camera off*
“Climate Change is no laughing matter”
said no one ever with a straight face.
/grin
Great article on climate definition sarcasm, but I was hoping for some actual definitions of some of the common/recent acronyms bantered about. BTW (by the way) I hate acronyms…there are just too many – just spell it out each time and forget the abbreviations CAGW: example:
CAGW Citizens Against Government Waste
CAGW Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (climate change)
CAGW Cultural Alliance of Greater Washington (Washington, DC)
Steven Mosher March 16, 2018 at 7:20 pm
Thanks for your comment, Mosh. Are these definitions “strawmen”? Let’s consider this one:
I hear this one over and over from both sides of the aisle. Both alarmists and skeptics use it as a hand-waving way to explain that their favorite theory just ran aground on a reef of solid facts.
So no, not a strawman in any way, shape or form.
As to the others, if you laughed when you read any particular one of them, that’s clear evidence that that one is NOT a strawman … it’s gotta be close to reality to make you laugh.
Now, if you want to add some definitions aimed at skeptics, I’m totally down with that. Some of the ones in the other comments have been quite good, I plan to add some of them to the head post, glad to add yours as well …
Best regards,
w.
I offer a video of the ultimate fact-based ‘denier’…. and how the climate justice warriors would deal with them/us, if they could get away with it.
Monty Python – Bring Out Your Dead!
https://youtu.be/Sh8mNjeuyV4
Niiiiiiiice!
Mann-splaining — “Climate modeling is easy as one, two, tree …”
Another one to add. Alarmists are confused. Acidic/acidification/more acidic
Oreskes — “Anthony Weiner / Howard Stern Venn diagram.”
97% of scientists — “Argumentum ad verecundium? Never heard of it. Is that a homeopathy thing?”
Ad verecundiam. Latin for ‘argument from shaming.’
Error bars — “Moral outrage and righteous indignation attenuators.”
I thought an “Error Bar” was a bar where they always served the wrong drinks.
Kelvin scale — “A magic device that makes +0.6 degrees invisible.”