Full disclosure: I own an electric car, and I think they are useful for city transportation. However, having owned one for a decade, I can say that it hasn’t been practical or cost-effective. John Hardy believes they are the future, I’ll let you, the reader, decide. – Anthony Watts
The demise of the Western auto industry: Part 2 – the problem
By John Hardy
Part 1 of this series here, expressed the view that regardless of “the environment”, Electric Vehicles (EVs) are poised to inflict a massive disruption on the automotive industry, and outlined the strengths of the technology and some of the reasons that it is happening now.
In Part 2, I outline what I see as the main issues for Western automakers. They need to wake up and smell the coffee: the history of technology is strewn with examples of once-great companies that failed to adapt to a technology advance and went to the wall. Traditional Western automakers may just do the same. They appear to have failed to realise that gearing up for EVs is not just business as usual with a different drivetrain. In particular they have until very recently shown no sign of thinking about fast charge, sourcing the cells that go into batteries, the dealer network or maintenance.
Fast charge
First of all, fast charge*. Most privately owned cars spend most of the time parked, and most of their journeys are short (in the UK private cars average around 21 miles per day)[1], but are occasionally called on to go cross country (think commuting in the week and visiting granny on occasional weekends). The comparable figure in the US is about 30 miles per day [2]. Overnight charging at home handles most driving.
Fast charge capability is however critical to cross-country driving; and most people require this capability, even if they don’t use it much. The fast charge standards supported by the major Western automakers have been inadequate (pitiful power levels), coverage spotty and use cumbersome. By contrast Tesla built their own supercharger network with twice the power levels of most public stations: and the sat nav in the car knows their location. Tesla cars are internet connected and do over-the-air software updates like laptops, so presumably the fast charge locations the car knows about stay up to date. If the major automakers do not take ownership of the fast charge issue they will remain at a disadvantage compared with those who do. Relying on a publically-funded infrastructure won’t do. Generic commercial charging stations after the style of the present auto fuel infrastructure may become viable on busy routes (with profit coming from the cake and coffee sold to drivers sitting for the 20 minutes while their cars charge) but most charging will be at home, and with electricity so cheap it may never be very attractive commercially.
*There is some terminology confusion here. By “fast charge” I mean charging from a DC source at 40Kw upwards. This is also sometimes called “rapid charge”.
Cells
Next, cells (a battery is composed of many cells wired in series like the battery in an electric toy is composed of a few AA cells in series). In 2013, world output of lithium ion cells was said to be a little over 30 Gigawatt-hours (Gw-hr) per year [3]. A Gw-hr is a measure of energy. A high powered household device like an electric kettle or electric fan heater might use 3 Kilowatts (Kw). Leave it on for an hour and you have burned 3 Kilowatt-hours (Kw-hrs). If you do half an hour of vacuuming with a 1 kW vacuum cleaner, you will have used half a Kw-hrs. A Gigawatt is a million kW, so if you do the maths, if you took all the lithium battery output of the entire world for 2013, it would (in theory and neglecting losses) power a million 3Kw electric heaters for ten hours, or ten thousand for 41 days (a thousand hours).
More pertinently, an EV burns 1 Kw-hr every 3 – 4 miles; so a 300 mile range EV would need 75 – 100 Kw-hrs of cells, so world output of lithium ion batteries in 2013 would at best be enough for around 400,000 EVs with a 300 mile range. Worldwide car production in 2016 was probably about 72 million. To electrify all of them to that range would require (again ball-park figures) roughly 200 times the 2013 production of lithium ion batteries.
The majors seem to be waking up (arguably too late and too slowly) to the fact that the supply of cells for battery packs is an issue. In June 2017 Ulrich Eichhorn of VW, went public with a statement that the whole VW group (Audi, Seat etc.) would need 200 Gw-hr of battery cell production by 2025 [4]. They have not announced any definite plans for sourcing these cells. Meanwhile, Tesla have once again thought ahead of the pack. They broke ground on their gigafactory in Nevada in 2014 with the initial target of 35 Gw-hr per year capacity: at the time this was roughly equal to existing global output from all manufacturers (love him or hate him, Elon Musk can’t be accused of timidity). More gigafactories are planned.
The problems for the traditional majors are illustrated by the GM Bolt. The Bolt is a 200+ mile range EV, which is seen by many as competition for Tesla’s new Model 3. However the Bolt uses cells from LG Chem (a Korean company). LG produce cells for the Bolt in a plant in Michigan which has a capacity projected to rise to around 3 Gw-hr in the next year or two [5]. Even if we assume that all these cells go into Chevy Bolts that is going to constrain Bolt sales to a fraction of what Tesla can achieve: 3 Gw-hrs is enough for about 50,000 Bolts. Tesla’s stated intention is to ramp up to ten times as many Model 3s.
For the next few decades at least the traditional majors need to think of cell production the same way they think of engine plants and put serious money ($billions) into it. There are trade-offs in the chemistry and packaging of cells that potentially affect battery management, charging, heating and cooling of the pack etc. This in turn has an impact on the cost and performance of the car.
Sales and maintenance
The standard sales channel for new conventional piston engine cars is via dealers, and the dealers do much of the maintenance, especially on new cars. The profit on the sale of new cars is low; the dealers make much of their money on maintenance [6]. This model probably won’t work with EVs, because they need so much less maintenance; no oil and filter changes, no exhaust replacements, no intake air filters, no spark plugs, no cam belts, even fewer brake pad and disc changes because of regenerative braking. Add to that the preference of the rising generation to do everything on line, plus the move to disintermediation across the commercial world [7], and the dealer model is probably dead.
There is another potential dealer-related issue for traditional automakers where the dealer is selling a mix of EVs and conventional cars. If a savvy dealer has two cars on the lot, one a high maintenance conventional piston engine car, and one a low maintenance EV, which vehicle is that dealer going to push [8]? Tesla have no dealers; they sell direct on the web and have in-house service centres (they also do software upgrades wirelessly and don’t do conventional advertising)
The Chinese aren’t just putting in lots of new coal fired power stations; they are developing EVs and lithium battery capacity. One forecast suggests that Chinese production of lithium ion battery production will increase by a factor of five between 2016 and 2020, making it easily the largest producer worldwide [9]
China’s indigenous auto industry is also flexing its muscles. For a brief period in May the production car lap record at the Nurburgring was held by the Nio EP9 (Figure 1) [10]. It actually held the record for just two weeks and then a McLaren took the record. With a hybrid.
If this doesn’t make the CEOs of the traditional Western automakers wake up screaming at 2:00 a.m. then they lack imagination. Here is a company few in the West have heard of, from a country with almost no previous performance car pedigree, strolling onto one of Europe’s most iconic circuits and beating all-comers with a pure electric car.
Finally consider this statistic: plug in hybrid and pure EV sales in China in 2013 were under 20,000. In the US in the same year sales were about five times greater: close to 100,000. By 2016, US sales had reached about 160,000: a respectable percentage increase, but less than half the sales in China. Over 350,000 EVs were sold there in 2016 (Figure 2).
A lot of the growth in China was a result of subsidies which were reduced in 2017 [11], leading to a slowing of growth in sales in Q1 of 2017, but in one sense that hardly matters: the capacity is being developed. No US or European automaker (apart from Tesla) could get anywhere near 350,000 units even if they wanted to.
In conclusion
Much of Western economic activity relates to cars: apart from the automakers themselves there are all the parts suppliers, and much of Big Oil is focussed on fuel for road vehicles. EVs will have a big impact on all this. It may already be too late for the Western automakers: they should have been breaking ground on cell production and rolling out fast charge years ago. But we are where we are, and maybe some will survive. If they don’t, our children will inherit even more of an industrial wasteland than is coming their way already.
In part 3 of this series I will take a look at several misconceptions about EVs
References
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/632857/nts0901.ods 7,800 miles per year for privately owned cars = 21 m.p.d. Company cars 18,900 = 51 m.p.d. but they are a small percentage of the total number of cars
[2] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2013/ dataset VM1. 11,244 miles per year is about 30 miles per day
[3] https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/gigafactory
[4] http://europe.autonews.com/article/20170710/COPY/307149996/industry-needs-40-gigafactories-vw-says
[5] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lg-racing-beat-tesla-first-gigafactory-us-chris-smedley
[6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2012/02/29/the-surprising-ways-car-dealers-make-the-most-money-off-of-you/#1661b601e6fd
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation
[8] “Chevrolet currently has about 3,000 dealers in the U.S. but aside from some dealers in California and a few other locations, most seem pretty averse to selling plug-in vehicles. Sales people often don’t understand them and try to steer customers to other products that might have higher margins.” From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2017/07/11/living-with-the-chevrolet-bolt-keep-it-in-low-sell-it-hard/#109472a41c5d
[9] http://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-leading-charge-lithium-ion-megafactories/
[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4MRydmz86E
[11] http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-china-ev-market
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There is a good case to be made that “cars” per se will run into a use constraint in the not too distant future. While population growth is trending towards a peak of ~10billion, the growth of large cities will absorb much of that growth. If peoples desires and needs keep cities growing they simply won’t have the room for surface transport by and parking of small vehicles.
That is fortunate in a way because lithium is not an abundant element- iron is ~6.3% of the earth, lithium about .5-^7 %. What lithium exists is found in small deposits, mostly in small amounts- 10-30ppm. And 2/3 of the lithium currently goes into other uses such as ceramics, glass. Lithium batteries currently are cheap, but all the supply constraints(scarcity, limited supply, environmental and social damage, pollution) are going to complicate production and battery supply. In the end, lithium powered electric cars are going to be an even shorter term solution than gas powered cars have been.
I discuss Lithium supply in part 3
Electric cars may one day be practical. At the present they are anything but. Many commuters can find the modern day electric car able to fulfill their daily needs. If their commute is short enough and they have a long enough time to recharge they can find the electric car suitable. However they are not economic. The premium for batteries and the need to change them out makes the economics on the electric car problematic.
For the rural driver or someone that takes their automobile on vacation the electric car makes little sense. The short range and long recharge time makes driving none workable. Moreover, the cost of most recharge stations is more expensive than gasoline.
Only when batteries can give a 500 plus range a day and/or a recharging time of under an hour and a equivalent price equal to a gas powered car will they become anything more than a rich person’s novelty.
Elephant in the room.
17.4 million new vehicles in USA in 2016
Top 20 link
http://www.businessinsider.com/best-selling-cars-trucks-vehicle-america-2016-2017-1
Top seller, Ford F-Series pickups.
#2 Chevy Silverado pickup
#3 Dodge Ram pickups All with increased year over year sales.
There is a hybrid pickup being marketed
https://www.wired.com/2017/05/workhorse-group-w-15-electric-pickup-truck/
which may have some practical applications, but reading the PollyAnna, electric car, musings of the author, . . . I just have to shake my head and laugh.
Imagine a contractor, running around town from job to job bring men and materials to where they are needed and suddenly, he has to stop for a 20 min + recharge, assuming he doesn’t have to wait? Even better, a rancher with a load of haybales pulling a horse trailer, how far will that get on a full battery charge, 50-100 miles, maybe?
Keep dreaming, but don’t put blinders on and think the rest of us will magically adapt to your 20 miles perday commuting, compact, rolling coffin, “see electric cars work if you change your lifestyle to mine”, world view. I like my big truck, don’t ever plan to change.
Matthew – don’t misunderstand me – I’m not in favour of the government or anyone else forcing you out of your truck. My concern is that this stuff is coming and complacency may result in vehicle manufacturing leaving the West for good
A few weeks ago I was reading an article in a classic car magazine (EV’s will never replace classic ICE cars, fortunately and they will never sound as good as my V8 Mustang). The article was discussing cars built in the late 19th Century,1895 to be precise. There were three types of vehicle: Steam, ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) and Electric. They were all, initially selling in similar numbers, steam fell out of favour, due to the time it took to heat the water in the boiler before the car could be propelled. Electric vehicles were bought by women, because of the difficult task of hand-cranking to start the petrol engine. These early electric vehicles had Lead/Sulphuric Acid batteries and a range of 100 miles, which in those days was probably enough, because social mobility was very limited. Modern ICE vehicles are economical, reliable and cheap to run and the hand-cranking issue is no longer a problem.
Over the years there has been interference by governments and the State of California that have invoked the Law of Unintended Consequences on many occasions. In the 1970’s California banned the sale of leaded petrol for all new vehicles, the result was poorer performance of ICE’s. Customers were not happy about this at all, so the motor manufacturers made their engines more powerful by increasing their displacement (Jensen who built the Interceptor increased the engine capacity from 6.3 litres to 7.2) so fuel consumption and therefore CO2 emissions both increased. This was fine because petrol was cheap and CO2 was not a problem, then the Arab oil crisis happened and petrol was no longer cheap. Our government in its wisdom in 2010 decided to offer subsidies for the purchase of new diesel vehicles because they emit less CO2. Anyone who has been following a badly maintained diesel vehicle would realise that their emissions are far worse and far more toxic than CO2. So, now we have a diesel scrappage scheme (those that bought diesel cars received two payments from the UK taxpayer, one to buy a car and five years later another one to scrap it) and a promise to ban all new ICE car sales after 2040. No-one has thought how this huge amount of electricity is going to be generated, distributed, or supplied. Closing down coal and gas fired power stations is going to make things worse as is relying on renewables. It is economic vandalism, based on scientific ignorance and gross stupidity in believing that an increase in concentration of a gas, vital to life on our planet, that an increase in concentration by 0.0012% has changed our climate..
The fast charge issue is the ultimate Achilles heel of the EV. Consider that an average house has 200 amp service at 240 volts…a rough absolute maximum power capacity of about 48,000 watts. No house will ever use this capacity. It is there for “dark” start capacity (ie everything on, power cycles, transient in seconds).
Now, fast forward to fast charge…I am seeing values of 40,000-over 100,000 watts. Ok, a local arbitrary grid system can undoubtedly handle a few of these at the same time. Now, lets go to the real world…a highway charging station on Friday….hmmm….thousands of EVs….40kw plus….sun is setting, wind dying down.
Sorry, I have not seen any plausible mechanism for fast charging more than a relative handful of EVs at any given location. 20 Minutes apiece…take a look at a busy highway gas station…now replace the 5 minute fill up for 300-500 mile range with 20 minute fill-ups for less than 300 mile range. Lines anyone? And what exactly is providing that massive power capacity?
Power outage anyone? Maine just endured a storm which took out over half the states power for nearly a week. ICE vehicles kept right on going….either because of their inherent long range, or a lowly generator (to run the gas pump) at the filling station on some back woods road.
EVs in the winter? Sorry…they will be parked, and the ICE Ford F150 will be doing what it has been doing for decades…providing reliable transportation in almost any circumstance with almost no infrastructure.
Towing….LOL.
EVs will be used for 2nd and 3rd commuter cars…with slow charge overnight or at urban work locations. And as wealthy play things. The rest of the world (the vast majority) will continue to enjoy the convenience of long range and convenient and truly “fast” recharge (ie filling the gas tank) of the ICE.
Let’s try a “social” experiment….let’s offer a $7500 tax credit on a Ford F150 (for example), and none on an EV. Now switch the credit and see want sales do. Oh wait…we already did this…:)
Ethan Brand
You are right. 200 amp at 240 V are 48 kW. I very much doubt that average home has so much. None of those i know has. Rather 3 to 10 kW, that is, ~10x less. Basically, a single EV needs about as much energy and power (at low charge speed, i.e., a full night to fill her up) than an entire home.
Moreover, the local grid may be not the “smart grid” talked about, but it isn’t completely dumb either. At night, electricity is charged lower price, but not at the same hour for every one, so that peak power is not concentrated and the grid can cope. Obviously, having everyone in the neighborhood charging up cars every night would change much the distribution equation, more than doubling the demanded power.
An electric demand such as the EV charging at night would sure change the spot market pricing for surplus electricity in the middle of the night. Definitely be some low hanging fruit there for the early adopters. But then the cheap price on the spot market in the middle of the night will disappear. Plus the neighbourhood electrical infrastructure will only charge so many cars at once. Perhaps the Smart Meter can help coordinate charging times, but ultimately whole neighbourhoods would have to vastly upgrade the distribution capability. All the more reason for starting with a Plug In Hybrid EV (PHEV.)
Apologies – didn’t explain well. Fast charge would not happen at home but on long distance routes at locations with an industrial power supply
“Sorry, I have not seen any plausible mechanism for fast charging more than a relative handful of EVs at any given location. 20 Minutes apiece…take a look at a busy highway gas station…now replace the 5 minute fill up for 300-500 mile range with 20 minute fill-ups for less than 300 mile range. Lines anyone?”
The vast majority of people who have EVs will charge them at home. So 90% of the “fill ups” that you can’t do at home with an ICE, you CAN do at home with EVs. For long trips,people will charge during meals. And if the economics don’t work out for long distance travel, that’s fine. Then EVs will be limited to roughly 1/2 the market, since most families have 2 cars. The EV will be the commuter car, and the ICE for weekends and longer trips. This is no different than families who have a big SUV which they mainly use on weekends, and a small, fuel efficient car they use for commuting and errands.
How many people eat every three hours?
Most families have 2 cars, both for commuting. You want them to have three.
How many people drive more than 600 miles per day? 1%? Good grief, you are looking for any reason to trash EVs, even to the point of saying it would be a massive inconvenience for you to stop one time for 20-30 minutes on a day when you are driving 500-600 miles. Oh, and the EV mfrs are constantly working on extending the range, so the idea that we’ve hit a wall at 300 miles max range is preposterous. A 2011 Nissan Bolt had a range of 75 miles, a 2017 Chevy Bolt has a range of 238 miles.
WHen on vacation, lots of people do.
“When on vacation, lots of people do.”
Links to support that statement? 600 miles is 10 hours of driving. So in a worst case scenario, you would need to stop twice for around 20-30 minutes to do a fast charge. That would get you 700-800 miles, or 12-14 hours of driving time. And if doing that for the few days per year that you’re driving more than 600 miles per day is a massive inconvenience, fine, don’t buy an EV. Most people buy vehicles based on what they’ll use it for 95% of the time, not what they’ll use it for 5% of the time. Clearly you’re different.
“The rest of the world (the vast majority) will continue to enjoy the convenience of long range and convenient and truly “fast” recharge (ie filling the gas tank) of the ICE.”
Wrong. China is pushing EVs in a big way, in part due to terrible air quality in their cities. That’s 25% of the world market right there. Europe is too, also in part due to urban pollution, as well as reducing CO2 emissions. That’s 20% – and remember, Europe has expensive gas, so car owners will save a lot of money this way.
You completely ignore the emissions and pollution reasons that are causing many urban areas to push to restrict gas and diesel vehicles.
Another troll falls for the propaganda.
China’s pollution isn’t coming from cars or coal plants.
Europe has expensive gasoline ONLY because of taxes. Do you really think their socialist governments will just smile and do without that revenue to “save the planet” with EV’s? The poor suckers will have limited range transportation AND ridiculously high taxes.
Another MarkW post with zero supporting links or data. That’s what, 15,000 posts without including a link to supporting data?
I bring data, you bring claims backed by nothing. “The common sources in almost all cities are coalburning emissions and vehicle exhaust emissions, among them: coal-burning emissions contribute more in the northern cities in winter. Since the motor vehicle exhaust is one of the largest pollution sources, severe technical and manage measures should be taken to decrease its emission. Finally, policies and technical advices are put forward in order to provide a theoretical basis for PM2.5 pollution control in China.”
PM2.5 pollution in major cities in China: Pollution status, emission sources and control measures (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282696670_PM25_pollution_in_major_cities_in_China_Pollution_status_emission_sources_and_control_measures [accessed Nov 07 2017].
“China’s pollution isn’t coming from cars or coal plants.” Really MarkW, do you really think that cars and coal fired ‘plants’ don’t cause pollution? Then what is causing pollution in China..tell us? Do you even read what you write before posting comment? And why is Chris a troll, and you are not?
A couple of good points Chris. I note that you were insulted rather than having your points answered…
E2, did I say that cars and trucks don’t pollute?
Regardless, the pollution that China is suffering isn’t do to cars and trucks.
No markie boy, you said “China’s pollution isn’t coming from cars or coal plants.” And then you said “E2, did I say that cars and trucks don’t pollute?” You can’t even remember what you just said in the same thread, and then you try and refute it. What an idiot. You should get a sign and put it around your neck that says ‘I’m an Idiot.’ Just read above what you wrote, and then try and tell all of us here you are not an idiot. Geesh…get of the pot.
Still waiting for links from Mark2 on proof that cars, trucks and coal plants are not a major factor in China’s urban pollution.
Great points, Ethan!
The EV folks must be concentrating upon local emissions of evil gases while ignoring basic thermodynamics and electrical engineering and then mechanical/civil engineering to get all that electricity to a charging station at home or on the highway.
The infrastructure required to have zillions of charging points is the long pole in the tent, best I can see. Oh yeah, where is all that electricity coming from? So without nukes or hydro or millions of square miles of panels and millions of bird-slicers, we have to get the volts and amps from someplace!!!
So I see the EV vehicles as great for high population cities and such, and mainly moving the polution from the city to the desert or forest. The doggone things are great if you drive 5 or 6 miles to work and then stop at the pub or grocery on the way home. ‘course, your 200 amp x 240 volt electric service could be a problem, especially if you live in Phoenix or Miami and want air conditioning. Suckers are great for the golf course and around a large wharehouse or factory as lifts and basic movement of personnel.
I live in a subdivision with maybe 3 or 4 dozen homes in a 1 square mile area. So right now we could not charge the batteries if only half of us had EV’s. The electric cables are just not big enough. And think about high density abodes such as apartment houses and the cramped housing we see in our older cities. The electric cables would have to be 3 or 4 inches thick. I simply don’t get it. I don’t think the greenies and others understand basic engineering – electrical, mechanical and civil engineering.
And lastly, even with a ten minute “quick charge”, look at pictures of the Florida highways in early September hen many folks tried to leave south Florida!!!
Gums sends…
Well said. Sounds like an engineer! +10
Pat: I address the power supply issues in part 3
The range of an EV in the winter will be greatly reduced, due to the need for lights, de-misting heating/aircon. Plus of course a battery uses a chemical reaction to produce the electricity and most chemical reactions slow down when it is cold, so recharging will also take longer.
I do not know about the US, but in the UK, our motorways (freeways) are very heavily trafficked and there are service stations approximately every 20 to 35 miles. The fuel at these service stations is at least 10% more than at a garage off the motorway, and yet these service stations do not go out of business. There is plenty of demand for their fuel, and this is with cars that have a range of about 300 to 500 miles per tank. This suggests that cars driving on motorways need fuel, not simply that fuel is a convenience. This suggests that every day there are tens of thousands of people driving hundreds of miles per day.
Richard, just take your local Tesco station, there is a queue at any time of day.
To get the same throughput they will need 4 times as many Chargers as Pumps, therefore they would have to expand the forecourt by 400%.
Of course they could put some in the Car parking spaces.
But you can’t do the same thing in a corner Garage.
The demonstration in Florida, on the 24th of November at 4pm Florida time,
Might make a difference to how EV are powered.
Stirling powered generator’s, maybe?
There is a possibly relevant essay on the history , present developments and future prospects of Li batteries by consultant George Blomgren in a recent issue of Interface , published by the Electrochemical Society (ECS) :
The abstract reads :
-“This year, the battery industry celebrates the 25th anniversary of the introduction of the lithium ion rechargeable battery by Sony Corporation. The discovery of the system dates back to earlier work by Asahi Kasei in Japan, which used a combination of lower temperature carbons for the negative electrode to prevent solvent degradation and lithium cobalt dioxide modified somewhat from Goodenough’s earlier work. The development by Sony was carried out within a few years by bringing together technology in film coating from their magnetic tape division and electrochemical technology from their battery division. The past 25 years has shown rapid growth in the sales and in the benefits of lithium ion in comparison to all the earlier rechargeable battery systems. Recent work on new materials shows that there is a good likelihood that the lithium ion battery will continue to improve in cost, energy, safety and power capability and will be a formidable competitor for some years to come. “-
This is an open access article so you do not have to be a member of the Electrochemical Society to read the full text , but a college knowledge of inorganic crystal chemistry would be useful. (It is not confined to automotive batteries , there are other articles in other ECS journals for that , but you may be asked for a membership or institution password).
The link below is to the abstract but you can click on the full text from that page :
http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/164/1/A5019.abstract
There is a tesla store (dealership) in a mall in Toronto, so it is not only sales by internet.
Probably owned by Tesla.
Yes there ars Tesla stores; owned and operated by Tesla. Not dealerships
The EV crowd loves to keep using the “30 miles” a day…as the “coup de gras” as to why the EV can replace the ICE.
Consider this: I live in northern Michigan. Retired. I usually us my 2003 Chevy Avalanche to drive about 3-5 miles a day. Awful mileage, no doubt about it. I’d love to have a nice cheap electric motor which could be trickle charging away…..
Now, tomorrow, I need to move some logs for my Saw Mill. I’ll hook that old Avalanche up to an 8000 lb trailer loaded with logs and drive to the mill…a couple miles away.
The next day I might drive up to the UP to enjoy some winter sporting activity. Snow, cold, 200 miles, towing a trailer.
What world, exactly, has a EV doing this?
Don’t get me wrong…I love battery powered things…my weed wacker…my leaf blower, my electric deer fence…my flashlight….my Avalanche starter battery….
🙂
Ethan Brand
So if you only own 1 vehicle, then an EV is not for you. No big deal. No different than someone who has a pickup truck because they need to haul stuff. A pickup truck is impractical and expensive for someone who lives in a city and has to navigate tight traffic and small parking spots, but great for someone outside the city who needs to haul stuff. Horses for courses.
It’s amazing the lengths to which EV skeptics will go to criticize EVs.
So why do you EV lovers keep talking about banning ICE cars?
It’s amazing how tone deaf EV fanatics are to taxpayers’ complaints about being forced to pay for said EVs.
Hi Chris
The difference is that I am not expecting you in any way to subsidize my PU. If you want to buy a EV…go for it. Just leave my pocketbook out of the equation.
OBTW, being in small town, I’d happily give you a tow after your battery goes kaput…..will you be able to do the same when the gas guzzler empties the tank?…nope, didn’t think so…no towing capacity.
I have no issues with EV. Just EV preachers.
Regards,
Ethan Brand
Why didn’t you call us “EV deniers?”
Hi Ethan,
I am subsidizing your PU through increased health care costs, which my taxes in part go for.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/29/gasoline-health-environment-costs/
I keep on hearing that “if you own 1 vehicle, then an EV is not for you. No big deal.” This isn’t flying any more. Either there HAS to be an electric vehicle solution for everybody, every situation, every time, every use condition or we cannot outlaw the ICE.
My former boss owns a Volt and his wife loves it. But he drives a Jeep everyday, has a motor home and he would drive the 23 mile one trip to work in his beloved diesel Jetta if he would ever get the brake pump fixed. But he hasn’t went out and bought 2 more Volts for his family.
Point is, EV’s are a niche market. Until the range issues, battery supply issues, heavy hauling, electrical supply issues are figured out, we will see the ICE in use in huge numbers for a long time (>20-30 years). Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Come back when you have an electric solution for the mining dump trucks that run 24/7/365 mining all those minerals to make the batteries for all those Telsas.
There goes Chis with yet more lies.
This time trying to invent non-existent health issues.
MarkW said: “There goes Chis with yet more lies.
This time trying to invent non-existent health issues.”
Lol, there goes MarkW claiming there is no link between automobile pollution and health issues with zero supporting evidence. According to MarkW, the researchers in all the countries that have done studies on this – the UK, China, France, the US, etc – are all wrong. Nope, MarkW is correct. No proof provided or required, he just knows there is no correlation.
@all the whiners
If you don’t like what the gov’t spends revenue on — elect other officials — period
You seem to have missed that this has happened last year. Fortunately, the Hilarious C. didn’t make it.
How about this?
http://www.topmobility.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/m/e/merits_silverado_tm.jpg
🙂
Towing capacity?
Oooh – but it sells as a “Silverado” , so I thought there ought to be towing capacity galore…I should have read the manual beforehand…
Ethan Brand on November 7, 2017 at 9:55 am
🙂
Towing capacity?
Judging by the size of people riding these things at Wal-mart they can pull quite a bit. Just don’t get in a hurry.
Or this from England in the 1950’s
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These vehicles are just having some sort of revival: “Deutsche Post”, the equivalent of US Mail, has just decided to put some 20.000 battery-propelled delivery vehicles into action.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRqjLHTxev8eT2gshXREzS2XG3WNTvMEF8AVgG5sC2zjq98JhmZGg
The postmen and -women hate it. It’s got no heating, and when you get in with damp clothes, which is not uncommon in German weather, all windows get fogged. The postmen are sorry, but not safe.
I remember the milk floats from my childhood in the late fifties and sixties. The wheels were so small they used to get stuck in the snow and because they were so quiet when we played in the street getting knocked down by one was a real hazard.
They do love averages (I guess you need a starting point for discussion), but gloss over the mass of people doing well over the average that make up that number. Cities are getting larger, commutes longer (often now inter city/inter region/inter State) and public transport stays rooted in the 1990s. I dont see EVs as a grand transition, just another vehicle choice that will fill a niche.
I made this comment for part 1, and will repeat it here: no DEFENSE is necessary for a well designed, well built, useful product. If a Tesla (or other electric car) or hybrid fits your needs and you can afford it, you will buy one. If it doesn’t, you won’t. Ford Motor Company launched one of its most expensive ad campaigns attempting to convince consumers to buy an Edsel – it didn’t work.
Currently, government mandates and/or subsidies are needed for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric cars. These need to be stopped as they represent massive wastes of money. The market should be allowed to determine winners and losers for consumer dollars.
Electric cars might sell if….
The cost is equivalent to similar gas powered cars
One can recharge the battery 80% within 15 minutes
The cost to charge a battery is not more than the cost to fuel a car with gasoline (this includes infrastructure and taxes)
Range is at least 300 miles
CO2 emissions are significantly less than a gasoline powered car
Electric cars pay a similar tax as gasoline cars for roadway maintenance…..
I don’t think it is possible that all these can be met.
All but the last are well onto their way of being met in the next 5 years if not sooner, with the last one likely once EV volumes increase.
90% of the benefit of mass production has already been achieved for EVs.
You bet?
Easy : in 5 years or later, i will buy an EV, and you pay the difference between its price and the same with ICE.
If the EV cheaper, you win the difference.
If it is the same, you neither win nor lose.
If it is more expensive, you lose.
Ready to bet?
“90% of the benefit of mass production has already been achieved for EVs.”
Proof of that?
We may have to use 20 minutes to charge, but the others will happen quite soon and with good margin. Five out of six is not that bad?
Electric cars use less than a third of the energy of a combustion car per mile and we can expect the fuel cost to reflect that.
Electric engines have far fewer moving parts and maintenance points compared to combustion engines and we can expect that this will have an impact on both the production price and the total cost of ownership.
/Jan
“Electric engines have far fewer moving parts and maintenance points compared to combustion engines and we can expect that this will have an impact on both the production price and the total cost of ownership.”
Keeps getting thrown out there. We “expect” why is this not the case now? ICE is mature techology and most users dont look under the bonnet from one month to the next, the roads are not littered with broekn down cars. When will renewable benefits be here and now, not just forever coming, expected , just over the horizon? Wind power has been around for decades with these sorts of statements and is a costly, destablising disaster
The cost off batteries are dropping quickly and the drop is expected to continue for several years.
One example is the use of the expensive cobalt. The battery in the 2008 Tesla Roadster contained eight times as much cobalt per KWH as a modern Tesla model S. Batteries without any cobalt at all is expected to take over soon.
Another factor is that we have not seen the full effect of mass production in the same scale as for the combustion engines. Production prices per unit becomes lower when millions of engines are produced than some ten thousands.
The claims of energy efficiency are only true if you only look at energy from the output of the battery to the motor.
When you factor in getting the energy from the power plant to the battery and back out of the battery, EV’s turn out to be the real losers in the efficiency game.
@ur momisugly yarpos
Denmark gets 40% of it’s electricity from WIND — and frequently has to sell it’s excess production to Germany and Scandinavia. (that’s how interconnected grids are supposed to work) —
You happen to forget to mention that Denmark has the highest electricity prices in the world. If that’s the effect of wind turbines and PV, then it is the end of the line
Non Nomen, you are a lttle out of date, South Australia now has the highest prices and yes you guessed it, due to Wind & Solar.
Geoffrey – why is CO2 an issue?
Lets not kid ourselves. In mind of the general public, c02 reduction is the rationale for switching to EVs. At least that’s what they have been told by the MSM. Now I know, and you probably know, that there is no real need to mitigate c02, and that EVs won’t make much of difference even there was.
So why indeed?
Many people also see the benefit in the absence of exhaust pollution from the tailpipe and non existing engine noise.
With most new ICE cars there is very very little polution from the exhaust and the Tyre Noise is louder than the engines.
one thing I am not reading on any of the comments is how well Tesla’s drive; fast, low to the ground feeling, quiet, safe. This is a big advantage, granted in the lower end EV’s, it may not be as much.
It would be highly astonishing if a Tesla would not have all these features, especially when you look at it’s exorbitant price.
But the more gadgetry and electrickery they integrate, the more error- prone these EVs are.
A friend of mine just three days ago spent more than half an hour on a rainy and windy late saturday evening trying to unlock her Tesla, where the door handles showed extremely erratic behaviour. She finally managed it when another friend gave her a helping third and fourth hand.
If the numbers of EVs on the road increase significantly, then the price of electricity will increase with greater demand, probably significantly as well. (and a greater % of wind and solar will significantly increase the cost of electricity all on their own) The relative inflation adjusted price of gasoline and diesel will also probably decrease a bit further if demand slacks off a bit. A point of equilibrium between ICE being less expensive, and more practical, and EVs being not too expensive, will probably be reached, that will put a ceiling on EV numbers. The EV market will likely be a limited market assuming it survives the pulling of subsidies which is probably just around the corner.
There are more ICEs globally now than 10 years ago. So why has the price of gas gone down and not up?
Because like the climate, there are many things that impact the price of gas most of them much more important than the one you fixate on.
“There are more ICEs globally now than 10 years ago. So why has the price of gas gone down and not up?”
Increased inventory/capacity coupled with decreased demand. Economics 101. More cars doesn’t equate to more driving (ie, fuel consumption).
MarkW on November 7, 2017 at 8:25 am
Because like the climate, there are many things that impact the price of gas most of them much more important than the one you fixate on.
You mean the law of “supply and demand”? If you want to accuse us of “fixating” on facts I’m okay with that.
Because average fuel economy has increased in the last 10 years, keeping demand from surging. Also, increased production of oil has kept the price of gasoline down.
squiggy, If you think that only one thing impacts both supply and demand, then you aren’t thinking.
“Because average fuel economy has increased in the last 10 years, keeping demand from surging. Also, increased production of oil has kept the price of gasoline down.”
Yes, and if EV increases power demands, why can’t additional electricity production be the answer?
In terms of supply and demand, greens are pursuing policies that reduce the supply of stable grid electricity, while at the same time pushing policies that increase demand of the same energy supply. And at the same time pursuing policies to restrict accessible ICE personal transport or make it a too expensive alternative for most.
I didn’t see much about how the electric utility infrastructure will have to adapt. Residential homes, apartment complexes, businesses will have to add capacity, modify existing services, etc. Time of day metering? More power plant capacity? I figure the typical response will be to scoff and dismiss these concerns (like the auto industry) based on little understanding of the complexity of power generation, transmission and distribution. “They only “use” 70% of the capacity anyway.” Don’t bother finding out why.
‘Tesla’s stated intention is to ramp up to ten times as many Model 3s.’ given that any stated intention ‘ from Tesla needs the application of 10 years of production from the worlds biggest salt mine. On its own this is hardly proof of anything .
Who is best placed to mass manufacturer EV cars , those who already mass manufacturer cars and have disruption, marketing and supply networks etc already set up for a range of cars they sell , of which EV could and for some already is one part. Or some one with none this network manufacturing base of knowledge of managing a supplier network on a large scale ?
It is mythology that current car makers are opposed to EV, what they are for is making money and if that can be done selling EV cars or ones powered by Hamster sweat then that is what they will do.
Every year thousand of people put the wrong type of fuel in their car , which indicates that generally most people care little what what fuels their cars.
Range
Charging time
Cost
are the three killer elements involved.
No ‘conspiracy’ is holding EV sells back , the current large scale manufactures will be the future large scale manufactures, and the idea that they cannot or not want to invention is BS . Remember Tesla himself is a user of others ideas not a maker of new ones .
While EV cost savings are merely a product of low tax due to low numbers, once the numbers stop being low then the low tax is ‘gone ‘ has was seen with LPG.
Is now the opportunity to rebuild Puerto Rico as an all EV Island? The range limitation of EV’s would be less problematic.
Too expensive
Check out photos of what hurricane Maria did to solar farms in PR. That should answer your question.
Mine was a rhetorical question, but since Electric Vehicles don’t need to be powered by solar panels, your comment does not answer my question.
The intent of my comment was to prod the EV proponents to confront the expense and pursue an all Electric Vehicle Island to showcase how functional it would be. They could generate the electricity from diesel initially to power this island wide change.
Oh I’m sorry. I saw EV and read PV. My mistake.
There are also solar farms on Domenica and Antigua built to hurricane proof standards which survived just fine and were working right after…
http://www.pveurope.eu/Company-News/Antigua-s-well-built-PV-systems-sustain-impact-of-hurricane-Irma
Plus Sonnen and Tesla are replacing PR’s power grid with solar and batteries right now
“The problems for the traditional majors are illustrated by the GM Bolt. The Bolt is a 200+ mile range EV, which is seen by many as competition for Tesla’s new Model 3. However the Bolt uses cells from LG Chem (a Korean company). LG produce cells for the Bolt in a plant in Michigan which has a capacity projected to rise to around 3 Gw-hr in the next year or two [5]. Even if we assume that all these cells go into Chevy Bolts that is going to constrain Bolt sales to a fraction of what Tesla can achieve: 3 Gw-hrs is enough for about 50,000 Bolts. Tesla’s stated intention is to ramp up to ten times as many Model 3s.”
Lost me here. Do we like GM’s chances to scale up to 50K or Tesla’s. Call me when Tesla gets to 5. They need to spend a few more billion for the tooling to get to 10K. GM probably actually pays their suppliers occasionally too, so there’s that.
akak: what Im saying is that the Bolt is severely limited by the capacity of the cell supplier
by the capacity of their current cell supplier, should demans increase GM is probably capable of making arrangements dont you think?
LG just added 150 jobs and a 4th production line at the Holland Michigan plant in Feb. 2017
As demand continues to grow for the BOLT Jan 2017 –1200 sold
Sept 2017 2600 sold
14,000 sold JAN-SEP 2017
LG will build another Factory
EV are inevitable
Wrong. Just don’t buy them.
14000 sales in 9 months.
Ah Ah Ah.
2017 New car sales in the UK, 1.8% EVs, what a massive market intrusion.
An electric vehicle makes a fine second car.
If you have the money for a second car.
indeed.
second car can be cheap old ICE stuff, with over 100.000 miles but still running fine. No EV like that already exist nowadays.
Batteries usually don’t do well when it’s -20Fº.
That’s why they make block heaters.
I think the fast/rapid charge argument needs some reality/practicality testing. Assuming, as suggested in the article and in some of the comments, that rapid charging minimally requires a charging capacity per vehicle in the 50KW range, then at 240 VDC, the current flowing in the charging cable will peak (for 10s of minutes) at ~ 200 A. For comparison, single-family houses built in the US since the 1980s typically are equipped with 200 A at 220-240 VAC service from the street.
To handle current that high requires a cable made of wire of (at least) 2-0 AWG copper wire (70 mm2). The insulated diameter of one such wire is ~ ½”, it weighs ~ 0.45 lb/ft., and a cable of 2 such wires (minimally) is needed. So, roughly, a cable weighing 1 lb./foot that is 1” inch in diameter is needed. Using typical gasoline fuel hose lengths as a guide, 15 feet of cable would be needed.
And such cable is very, very stiff. These are the kind of cables that run from utility poles (or underground) to single-family houses.
For reference, Amazon offers a Ford EV charging station supplying 32 A at 240 VDC with rated capacity of 7.2 KW.
So, aside from what the figures mean for capital investment and real estate needed for delivering widely available public/private rapid EV charging, humping the charging cable and connecting it to the vehicle could be a problem.
In today’s WSJ …
One Laker’s Antidote for L.A. Traffic: His Tesla
… I decided to buy a Tesla because it is an electric car, so I could go in the HOV lane when I am by myself, and because it has an autopilot function, so the car is supposed to basically drive itself.
[ … ]
The process of buying the car was unlike anything I have experienced. You go online and pick out what you want—the color, the color of the rims, how many seats you want. [The car can come with five, six or seven.] A few weeks later, the car is ready.
[ … ]
Also, the Model X is really comfortable for tall people.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-lakers-antidote-for-l-a-traffic-his-tesla-1510065109
He has a charger at home and the Lakers have a charger at work. And he can afford the $115,000 price.
It’s not just the car, it’s the whole package.
Every dealership I have ever been to, if you don’t mind waiting you can pick out the features of the car that you want. Nothing new or revolutionary about that.
MarkW wrote, “Nothing new or revolutionary about that.”
I think you missed the part where he said, “You go online … “
Many dealers permit you to select your car online as well.
I doubt electric cars will not be cheaper than traditional ICE cars, on the west side of North America.
I have pointed out on WUWT before, that California Oregon Washington, and British Columbia are planning a mileage taxes / road use fees for electric cars, to make up for the loss of gasoline taxes not collected at the gas pump.
There is no way to get around such fees: these cars are traceable on the internet. You’ll have to pay for every darned yard, which is just fair, taken into account the taxes on petrol and Diesel.
Basically means you no longer have any privacy of movement. Big Brother dream come true.
How are old, unfit EV batteries dealt with??? Are the components recyclable or is it just toxic waste?
There’s this
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602469/bmw-built-a-power-plant-from-old-electric-car-batteries/
but I guess those are not ‘unfit’
Non Nomen: I address this in part 3
Bottom line: the market for EVs is a niche one, despite the hype, hoopla, cheerleading and spin. What China may or may not be doing is pure misdirection. We are not China, so don’t care. If people want to buy an EV, for whatever reason (and I suspect feeling pious and virtue signalling are tantamount), then fine, go ahead. Just don’t expect taxpayers to help with the tab, and that includes the infrastructure needed for them.
Let us compare an electric car to an elevator.
Huh, what, you ask? Well, consider standing in the elevator listening to the piped in muzak. Consider standing in that elevator for the same amount of time as a commute or a trip. Torture, eh?
Now, consider, for that same amount of time whooping it up at the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival. Or, if your tastes run different consider being at a stadium listening to Aerosmith, ZZ Top, or Springsteen. Or maybe Lady Gaga. Or being at the Opera.
Real music. True Music. Passion. Life.
Or … muzak.
That folks is the difference between an ICE powered car and an electric car.
Picture rowing that shifter lever: snapping it down from 5th to 4th to execute that passing maneuver. Imagine double clutching that transmission to synchronize the gears as you snick it down from 5th to 4th to 3rd gear in preparation for that upcoming ‘S’ turn. And, all the while listening to the melodious sounds of that free breathing engine as it changes its notes to match its speed: the soft metallic clapping of the tappets; the burbling intake; the staccato exhaust; all blended together in a symphonic ripping noise.
An ICE engine can also be called a motor. But, an electric motor can never be called an engine. The ICE engine is a symphony, a concert, the real thing. An electric motor is muzak.
You will tear that shift knob out of my cold dead hand.
I de-snorkeled my 2003 Boxster just to get the throatier sound. So yeah my gas mileage went down because I love driving it at between 4000 and 5000 rpm now going down the highway. 😉
Tom: no reason why anyone should tear any controls out of your hands. ICE probably won’t disappear. People still race warbirds and I love the sound of a Merlin. No one uses them for serious transport though
complete mastery of false equivalence there
And what planet do you live on?
EV sales will only surpass ICE sales when they can compete price-wise without subsidies, and also deliver comparative convenience and performance. As yet, that’s just a pipe dream.
Art I agree with what you are saying apart from the. last sentence