Ron Clutz writes at Climate Change Dispatch:
Arctic Sea Ice Surges Back During First Half of October
Consider the refreezing during the first half of October through yesterday, adding an average of 96k km2 per day. On the left side, the Laptev Sea has filled in, and just below it, the East Siberian Sea is also growing fast ice from the shore to meet refreezing drift ice.
At the top Kara, Barents and Greenland’s seas are all growing ice. At the bottom, Canadian Archipelago is now full of ice.
The graph compares extents over the first 15 days of October.
Read more here: https://climatechangedispatch.com/arctic-sea-ice-surges-back-during-first-half-of-october/
NOTES:Data from NSIDC’s MASIE sea ice extent data set. Details here: http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02186_masie/index.html
Google Earth KMZ files of the data are also available here: http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02186_masie/index.html#kmz_format
NSIDC’s interactive sea-ice extent chart comparing the last 5 years of extent to today shows that the current rate of recovery is doing pretty well:
While this fast refreezing growth is interesting, it doesn’t necessary predict the rest of the freeze and melt season, which are highly dependent on the vagaries of wind and weather.
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“Little darling, it’ll be a long cold lonely winter”.
Get out the Bed Board and go to old fashioned Bundling.
A few comments about how bad and cold it was 50 years ago before the current warming particularly in the NH. Seems to fit in with the warmist scare of we are all going to die if it gets hotter (we are all going to die if it gets cooler). Since real change of significance takes thousands of years on average, with or without CO2 one would suggest taking a chill powder and not making alarming comparisons.
Of course I live in nice hot SH and hence have little need to feel concern.
Except angech, one Super La Nina coinciding with a chaotic cooling event such as volcanic activity, results in less food being grown per acre. Always be terrified of global cooling. It introduces things like the Dark Ages, or the collapse of civilizations as is recorded in history. Halloween was in part, this dread associated with the loss of sunlight and colder temperatures in the NH, along with death. Comparing warming with cooling is a fatal mistake, as anyone knows who lives in the north. I can survive maybe several days or a week without water in a warm climate…I may only last a few hours or less in the freezing cold.
I’m enjoying this . . .
Paris exit.
Steve Bannon.
Kathleen White.
Scott Pruitt.
Arctic ice.
Harvey Weinstein is the icing.
THE LEFT GETTING ITS COMEUPPANCE
climate change science has nothing to do with the left and outside the US things continue as before.
even in the US, 12 coal plant closures have been announced since Trump took office.
arctic ice has in no way recovered… 11 years have passed and we are nowhere near 2006 levels.
says the Warmist who uses The Guardian like a Bible! Good one, Griff!
The “Climate Change is going to kill all the brown people and the West has a moral duty to stop Climate Change by impoverishing itself cutting out CO2 emissions” is ENTIRELY the meme of the political Left.
The political Left has been on this bandwagon since the very, very beginning – because it is self-loathing, and projects that hatred onto the “white” West. Nothing more self-righteous or self-loathing than a Lefty SJW.
Even a cursory, objective glance over almost any Grauniad article (or similar Lefty rags anywhere in the Anglophone world) will demonstrate immediately the degree of antipathy the Left has, and that it entirely supports “WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE” unless the bad, bad West stops burning fossil fuels meme.
Let’s be clear, if you believe in AGW you’re one of the following:
Lazy.
Uneducated.
Opportunistic.
Left wing.
Criminal.
And in the case of “climate scientists”, greedy and careerist.
utter nonsense
You do. Regularly.
That is what you deal in Griff. “Utter nonsense”.
Arctic sea ice is not in a “death spiral”. Greenland SMB continues the climb started last year. Multi-year ice increasing. Fat & healthy Polar bears abound. Over all SLR rate remains steady. There is absolutely nothing unusual occuring with the Arctic weather or climate that should alarm any rational person.
The Greenland SMB isn’t increasing Rah
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-greenland-ice-sheet-2017
“Overall, initial figures suggest that Greenland may have gained a small amount of ice over the 2016-17 year. If confirmed, this would mark a one-year blip in the long-term trend of year-on-year declines over recent decades.
The unusual year is mainly down to heavy snow and rain in winter and a relatively short and intermittent summer melt season. And the source of that bumper winter snowfall was the remnants of a hurricane that wreaked widespread damage 4,500km away in Bermuda.”
The polar bear populations on the Beaufort Sea, Hudson Bay and around Svalbard are under stress (and nobody looks at most of the populations)
The arctic is warming and the sea ice is in trouble
utter nonsense indeed griff.
More open water in the arctic during the fall, winter and spring, means more snow in the land areas bordering the arctic.
Being further south and on land instead of water, this snow does dramatically increase the amount of sunlight reflected back to space.
Additionally, the more snow there is, the longer it takes for the snow to melt during the short summer.
I think the big reveal will be in the trend of multi year ice. Anybody got that?
To see NOAA … animation, you’d think there is no more multiyear ice, defin d as ice that has survived at least one melt season. But their graph is misleading to me. The old ice mostly disappeared in 2007. Most of it appears to have been blown out. Since then, 9 yr old ice pretty much gone, but there is still plenty of multi year ice. After this year, there should be an increase in multi year ice.
There’s a lot of 2 year and ‘this year’ ice, all of it much thinner than in previous years. but 4, 5 year and older? not a lot.
Old over 3m ice is hardly found any more.
since the Beaufort keeps melting right out, the ice which the currents drag into the central arctic where it thickens up just isn’t being supplied any more -yet Fram export continues to take the remaining thicker ice out to melt…
griff, you and the other alarmists really need to get a grip. there are wedges of ice up there 50 metres thick, never mind 50 feet. they may well have originated from glaciers but with increased open water as seen last winter the extra fetch means there are huge slabs of ice that have piled on top of each other, many ten metres plus thick. you only have to look at recent arctic imagery to see this.
overall thickness/ volume is a best guess no matter what anyone says. given the history of the people issuing these best guesses i doubt very much they are erring on the thick side.
The pause in Arctic sea ice is now 13 years…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/last:156/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/last:156/trend
Bet dollars to doughnuts that if this continues, they’ll blame volcanos.
I’ve been reading the past few months about volcanos and think the reason why is that its a preemptive move to condition the easily triggered snowflakes.
And when some year it gets below 2012, How do we “skeptics” react/act?
That would depend upon whether it interrupted the trend.
There were unusually low ice years during the cooling trend from the 1940s-70s, just as there were higher than usual years during the warming trend from the 1980s to 2010s.
If, not when.
It has to drop a heck of a long way to reach MWP low extents,
and even further to the often zero summer sea ice of the first 7000 or years of the current inter-glacial we are BLESSED to live in.
Until well into August this year it was tracking at ‘third lowest’ on extent.
the ice is thinner than in previous years…
this year was colder than in recent years in the central arctic… that’s not likely to be a permanent change…
Only unusually cold (for present times) weather saved us from a record this year: we will definitely see a new sub-2012 record within 5 years.
and when it happens, how can the skeptic view answer?
Yes Griff …. the ice is thinner, and it is supposed to be thinner. The question going forward is what happens over the next few decades. I’m certain that back in the 1930s minimum, there was less 10 yr old ice just like today. The NOAA animation I referenced earlier starts at the cycles maximum, so one would expect more older ice to be present. It has gradually blown out, melted. We now appear to be at a cyclic low …. and if history serves as any indicator, by 2040, there will be more 10 yr old ice than today. OTOH …. there are those who think over the next 20 or so years, the ice will disappear due to global warming. The evidence for such is to flimsy to mention, and is mostly wrapped up in a belief, and alternative agenda. …… but the question going forward will be answered in the future …… not in a mindcraft game (computer model)
Boring … give it up griff
Truth is never boring Stewart.
Dr D the lowest point in the last cycle was probably 1943… we are way beyond 60 years after that. And much lower extent etc than in 1943.
The arctic is definitely warming… why on earth is it going to change trajectory now?
griff, i am willing to bet my house with a legally signed document with anyone (against their house) that thinks the arctic sea ice extent will drop below 1 million square kilometres anytime in the next 20 years. so far not one single alarmist has been willing to take this bet up, not one. you are all full of s***
“Truth is never boring Stewart.”
Says the biggest liar on this blog.
re griff
**The arctic is definitely warming… why on earth is it going to change trajectory now?**
I call definitely BS on that statement griff. Show us some real MEASUREMENTS.
Say it has happened before and will happen again. It is after all weather. As Joe Bastardi said recently remarking on the hype of hurricane Ophelia. “History counters hysteria”. A concept alien to the snowflake tools, but understood by their handlers thus the efforts to revise the history or to not present it by cherry picking the start and end dates of the data they present.
For the 15% of us males that are color deficient, we would appreciate fewer, more dispersed colors and perhaps symbols to separate the lines of information.
There is a weather website in the UK which has several forums including climate change. There has been for several a thread each year on the Artic sea ice and anyone not claiming the ice would disappear completely each year was basically forced out of any kind of discussion. It has been incredibly quiet this year and a person who compiled stats on the sea ice extent surrender in August and never bothered with any more updates.
a link to this website would be appreciated. it would appear there could be hours of endless fun on there 😉
I’m puzzled. Here in the UK, the BBC has not had a single news item on this rapid refreezing of the Arctic ice….
Maybe their reporter came across some of those starving polar bears.
Perhaps they haven’t reported it because it is simply doing what it does every autumn when the sun goes down, and is entirely within norms.
http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/files/2017/10/nsidc_sie_quartiles_currentyear.png
They sure reported the prognostications that it would set a new minimum this summer though. That didn’t happen and that was news, but did the BBC give that fact coverage? Did they go back to the “experts” that said it would or could happen to find out what they had to say? Have they delved into why the “death spiral” is not spiraling? Have they asked why the SMB of the Greenland ice cap is growing when so many “experts” have said it would continue to decline?
“Have they asked why the SMB of the Greenland ice cap is growing when so many “experts” have said it would continue to decline?
In a warming world there is expected to be snowfall over the icecap, however the glaciers will also carve more mass into the sea.
“Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr.”
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
more snowfall
because it isn’t really happening
“because it isn’t really happening”
Do you never tire of lying on behalf of some of the most unpleasant, exploitative individuals on the planet at present, who can buy and sell the likes of you for the change in their pockets?
You’re entirely without self-respect.
Probably because this october has had the second slowest refreeze of the last ten years (NSIDC).
New ice comparison tool from NSIDC
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/
today vs same day in 2016 and today vs same day in 2012 enlightening (i.e. not much more ice in 2017 than on those 2 prev dates…)
What about the ice free North West Passage, when is that happening Griffter ??
Every year these days.
Griff, according to NOAA 900.000 km² more sea ice in 2017 to 2016/10.17.
That is really “not so many more”/sarc.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v2.1.csv
“(i.e. not much more ice in 2017 than on those 2 prev dates…)”
But it’s supposed to be all gone by now, according to your previous dire prognostications.
Why isn’t it?
Some day all those obsessed with Arctic ice cover will find that they have grown old and weary and only then will they realize they wasted most of their lives on a fool’s errand.
Another lows over the Pacific Ocean migrate to Canada.
?oh=ea5fdae49aca580397fa8374d23ad91e&oe=5A6BF535
It starts with a snowy winter in Canada.
Visible is the rapid decline in sea surface temperatures in Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00941/9x9qulct6z5l.png