Fast regrowth in Arctic sea-ice outpaces recent years

Ron Clutz writes at Climate Change Dispatch:

Arctic Sea Ice Surges Back During First Half of October

Consider the refreezing during the first half of October through yesterday, adding an average of 96k km2 per day. On the left side, the Laptev Sea has filled in, and just below it, the East Siberian Sea is also growing fast ice from the shore to meet refreezing drift ice.

Animation of NSIDC’s MASIE extent data via Google Earth by Ron Clutz. See note below for source of data.

At the top Kara, Barents and Greenland’s seas are all growing ice. At the bottom, Canadian Archipelago is now full of ice.

The graph compares extents over the first 15 days of October.

Read more here: https://climatechangedispatch.com/arctic-sea-ice-surges-back-during-first-half-of-october/


NOTES:Data from NSIDC’s MASIE sea ice extent data set. Details here: http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02186_masie/index.html

Google Earth KMZ files of the data are also available here: http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02186_masie/index.html#kmz_format

NSIDC’s interactive sea-ice extent chart comparing the last 5 years of extent to today shows that the current rate of recovery is doing pretty well:

While this fast refreezing growth is interesting, it doesn’t necessary predict the rest of the freeze and melt season, which are highly dependent on the vagaries of wind and weather.

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227 thoughts on “Fast regrowth in Arctic sea-ice outpaces recent years

  1. Why it be too much for them to put the current year in a colour you can actually see? Or the dotted line, maybe?

  2. Historically sea ice has increased and decreased over the centuries. It’s heartening to observe that this continues to be the case further demonstrating that climate variability will undoubtedly always be with us regardless of human impact.

  3. OH NO! the poor polar bears will have too many choices for denning, and the walruses are off for holiday travel!
    Of course as all the concentrations dissipate the warmists will see it as a population decline because numbers are dropping where they are counting them.

  4. The faster than normal recovery of sea ice, all due to man made climate change extreme variability, will cause polar bears to be confused and disorientated. Just as they were getting use to starving to death living on bare ground, they have lost much of their native instinct how to hunt on ice for food or build shelters in snow. /sarc

    • Alas, the polar bears are screwed because their food source needs to breathe air and they will not be able to do so if the ice is too thick to permit them to chew-out a breathing hole.

  5. Great visualization of the ice fields north of Eurasia.

    The 2013 Marcia Wyatt / Judith Curry Stadium Wave paper predicting increasing ice extent north of Eurasia starting around now and continuing for a couple decades continues to stand-up against reality.

    • I forgot to check Svalbard. It had good ice extent for most of the last 8 months. A little below normal currently:

      Hopefully it will participate in having a healthy ice extent year.

      • To Chris Norman at 4:37
        Since the mid-1930, international agreements have specified weather phenomena by 30 year averages with the last year ending in zero, as is the case with 1981-2010.
        The name given to this is “Normal” — much like you use the name “Chris.”
        Personally, I would call you “Kris” but your parents did not ask me.
        Likewise, I was not asked about using the name “Normal.”
        Just as I suggested “Kris”, you can suggest a replacement for “Normal.”
        Good luck with that.

      • But the ignorant equate average with normal. By playing with words, such as equating average with normal, practitioners imprint false information on their targets. Saying “the ice extent is X below normal” imparts a different impression than saying “the ice extent is X below average.”

      • And it should not require me to state that I believe “normal” should be replaced with “average.” But I am forced to state the obvious.

    • 1+++

      Very well seen. The ice north of the Franz Joseph Islands is not only more southerly than in most previous years since 2000 but even thicker (even after ARC and PIOMAS). At the same time the Fram transport fell to almost zero. If the (fictional share) of missing fram ice (which is normally transported to the Atlantic to melt) is still part of this arctic-bassin-ice, the ice is still much better in the whole Arctic basin. Is this the beginning of the stadium wave?

      • The Greenland ice sheet mass balance shows signs of growing the second year:

        Not only the arctic sea ice belongs to the arctic ice mass, also the greenland ice sheet. And this year it seems as is underway a unprecetented growth a second year. A climate-shift?

      • Jaysus, people! Anything less than a 60 to 100 year TREND is noise.

        Its warmed a bit from the Little Ice Age; get over it.

  6. I can’t say I am thrilled by this, since it could mean a trend back to cooler weather like we had in the 1950’s thru mid 1970’s in the northern part of the NH. I remember it well, and it was a lot colder and there was nothing good about it. The LIA was vastly much worse.

    While growing sea ice may assist in deescalating the alarmism about CAWG, it may come at the expense of much more adverse climate and reduced growing seasons. We already have a quasi ice age every year for 4-6 months every late fall, winter thru to early spring in the northern NH, so it may be that if we are in a natural cyclical cooling trend, then that shall not be good news for the entire 7.5 billion people on the planet now. Add to that any significant chaos event like major volcanic cooling, and our food supply could be severely at risk. The more people there is and the more complex that society becomes, the more shock we are in for when things do go sideways towards a cooling world, as the climate and geological records so adequately show.

    We won’t die a quick death or suffer rapid consequences from any global warming, but we most certainly are at grave danger for business as usual in a significant cooling world. Count me in for warming is better than cooling.

    • I too am old enough to remember the 60’s and 70’s (although you seem to have a decade on me remembering the 50’s).
      History repeats for those who don’t learn from it. 1910-1945 both Pacific and Atlantic oscillations were in positive phase. Then the Pacific went negative (interrupted by a decent sized el-nino in the late 50’s) and the Atlantic flat-lined for a decade before going negative. The 60’s and 70’s were very cold and I see a cyclical pattern as the Atlantic is still flat-lined and 2016 was a decent el-nino.

      So are we about to relive the climate of the 60’s and 70’s? Probably but this is a semi-chaotic system so we’ll just have to wait and see.

      • The cyclic history of natural variability will repeat itself whether you had studied it or not. What is unwarranted is the alarm initiated by people who obviously have not studied it.

      • @ TRM
        I hope we aren’t about to see a repeat of those cold spells – even though it would be a dagger in the heart of AGW.

        I well remember the snow and long cold periods that were plentiful in the UK during the late 50s (and later decades) but the 1963 winter was astoundingly cold across the country for a long, long time and set new records.

        We had been ‘up-country’ from Cornwall where we lived to visit cousins in Shropshire and then Hertfordshire over Christmas. The snow began falling across the country on Christmas eve and just carried on falling …..

        We had to wait 4 days past when we were due to head home for the road across Dartmoor to be opened with snow ploughs and what a journey that was. Cars in those days had poor heaters and blankets were a necessity for the 250 mile trip.

        We left for home on the day that a single track was opened on the only main road crossing Dartmoor to the west country . It had a few passing places cut out of the drifts and the snow either side was from 4ft to 7 ft and more deep (unheard of) and traffic crawling along at 15 – 20 mph. We were forced to wait for 40 minutes at one point because the diesel fuel lines on a lorry (truck) had frozen; he was nowhere near a passing place and all the traffic had to wait while he lit a fire under it to thaw the diesel in the tank and the pipes.

        Back in North Cornwall (Watergate Bay) which is warmed by the gulf stream and ‘never’ gets snow or even a frost there were 30 ft icicles hanging from the cliffs and the beginings of sea ice forming on the beach. For 2 days after school started back it was impossible to travel the 3 miles into Newquay and school because of the snow and ice.

        Across the country this lasted, with below freezing temperatures, from Christmas eve until late February or early March. Wildlife and birds were dying in their thousands and my father opened up his study for them so they could come in for food and get some warmth from the central heating. Sometimes there would be 60 or 70 birds of different species in there but having stocked up with dried food during the Cuban missile crisis there was plenty to feed them on.

        That was the worst winter I recall and I hope we don’t get the same again or anything approaching it. We had a bad winter about 25 years ago when snow and ice lasted for around 6 or 7 weeks – and being somewhat unprepared as we are in the south of England for that everything outside froze up – I spent half my time carrying buckets of water from the kitchen out to the fields and barns for the horses, sheep and other livestock. I was very glad when the thaw finally came.

      • I am old enough to remember the 40’s in UK, in particular the 3 months solid freeze up in the Winter of ’47/48 where nothing moved in UK for 3 months. Worst Winter evah… This was in the middle of “end of war” austerity (which lasted almost 10 years) the like of which our current day notion of that condition is tiny by comparison. All essentials were rationed. “Grow your own” was how we survived.
        God help us if we really get a global climate downturn.
        I’m for global warming – roll on. But up ‘ere i’ bloody cowd ‘n damp Yorkshire, we’ve seen nowt on it yet……
        Brian J in UK.

      • I have no desire to return to the colder decades, but one or two really cold years are often beneficial. They reduce pests and parasites in nature, like mosquitos, ticks, fleas, and climatastrophists.

      • “Old England October 17, 2017 at 1:16 pm

        We had to wait 4 days past when we were due to head home for the road across Dartmoor to be opened with snow ploughs and what a journey that was. Cars in those days had poor heaters and blankets were a necessity for the 250 mile trip.

        Colorful and intriguing story, Old England!

        British cars seemed to lack good heaters. American car heaters tended to cook feet.

        I owned a Triumph Herald for a couple of years.
        During winter, I had to cover 75% of the Herald’s radiator or the engine never reached reasonable operating temperature in the winter.
        Nor did that car’s heater work well, in the winter.

        That “in the winter” caveat is necessary, since I would use the heater during traffic jams during the hot summer to prevent frequent radiator boil overs. Which made keeping the top down a necessity on hot summer days.

        My Father’s 54 Chevy was base stock; with a metal dashboard and no radio.
        While the heater itself could half cook a person’s feet; that metal dash conducted freaking cold directly to the passenger compartment, offsetting the heater. Us kids in the back froze while my Dad griped about his shoes melting.

        What I remember of the 1950s was quite cold too. Even though my Mother made me wear every piece of warm clothing I had.
        I remember the 1960’s as much snowier with very cold winter blasts.
        Part of that could be because I dressed myself, without the layers and layers of hand me down heavy wool clothing. It could also be that I spent far more time outside

    • Sceptics are really between a rock and hard place. I would like nothing more than a little Little Ice Age to show the folly of CAGW, but that really would be a horrible time, and probably result in lots of deaths from famine and cold.

      • But, then the warmists will go into overtime making up other junk science to blame the cooling on man …

        It’s not warming that’s the problem, its the false perception that any significant warming is caused by the developed world. If it was cooling instead and the IPCC could tenuously connect it to any action of the developed world, it would be the same thing all over again.

      • “Phoenix44 October 17, 2017 at 10:50 am
        Sceptics are really between a rock and hard place. I would like nothing more than a little Little Ice Age to show the folly of CAGW, but that really would be a horrible time, and probably result in lots of deaths from famine and cold.”

        False claim Phoenix44.

        By and large you’ll find that the majority of skeptics regularly visiting WUWT dread Earth cooling.

        We’re quite happy with pauses. Even with bogus attempts to adjust or homogenize a temperature rise back into the charts.

        Warm periods are termed optimums. Peak periods for all life on Earth.
        Cold periods are disastrous to life.

        Facts warmunists ignore.

    • You are speaking reason and using common sense.

      Both are anethema to Algoreans and the Church of Global Warming.

    • What I remember from the 1950s was the beastly cold winds while we were waiting at the end of the driveway for the schoolbus and having to walk home from the last bus stop because the wind blowing across the cornfields had drifted enough snow across the road to block it and make the bus drive dangerous. And we were, of course, the last to be picked up and the last to be dropped off.
      I was very glad when we moved into town and I could take the city bus to school (not in Chicago, further south) but then we moved to a smaller town in the countryside and I still had to walk to school a half mile. And we girls were not allowed to were jeans or slacks to school, which meant no protection on your legs from the wind. I would get to school with my legs beet red from the wind.
      So if this rapid increase in Arctic sea ice is hinting at something, I’d like to be prepared for what ever it is.
      What, for example, was the rate of increase in the fall of 2005 compared to now. Would you like photos of my SUV covered by heaps of snow for an illustration of what we got that winter? I can go back further, commuting by car for two years between Chicago and Milwaukee in lake effect snow from Lake Michigan, which was no fun at all because my idiotic choice of vehicle (a sports car) wasn’t suited for that kind of driving.
      Going back to 2012 and no further doesn’t tell me what kind of trend it really is.

      • We had leggings that we wore under our dresses – an absolute necessity with the winds coming off Lake Erie in the late winter. This was the 50’s. The wind would blow horizontally driving teeny tiny pieces of snow/ice through your coats.

      • Back in the late 1990’s, I made my way into Washington DC in spite of a heavy snowstorm for a security conference.

        Our first speaker was from a Washington DC Agency and one of the organizers for the conference. He apologized for Washington DC’s horrid street conditions. i.e. no snow removal over most of the city.

        A few speakers further was from the Midwest. He announced that even in the Midwest, Washington DC received a lot of snow.

        There were a few more speakers, including one who posted a presentation which said Washington DC was going to use the natural method for snow removal.

        Then up stepped a speaker who called us all a bunch of wussies. Where he came from 20+ inches of snow was normal fare; where the city never shut down, schools didn’t close, public transportation functioned normally, etc.
        After his rant, the speaker admitted he was from Buffalo New York. Massive snow falls from lake effect snow were normal, even when everyone else have blue skies.

        A year later, I was sent to Omaha, Nebraska; where I got lost trying to locate my hotel. I realized I was lost when I crossed a small hila and was suddenly surrounded by expanses of snow filled fields and the road in front of me had a lot of drifts.
        Working in Omaha over the winter also taught me not to rent cars with tiny engines. Those tiny engines lacked sufficient torque near idle to drive transmissions and drive gearing full of congealed heavy oil.

  7. Relative to this, have folks noticed that Antarctica just reached a second ( very late) maximum, after what looked like a very early maximum in September? I’ve scoured the usual ‘concensus’ sites and hear only ‘crickets’, similar to the lack of comments there on rapid Arctic refreeze.

    • Yes I noticed, no political value in loudly correcting the story once the negative news has been disseminated is there! The pre-announcement of bad climate news is a favourite tactic. It’s on course to be the hottest/driest/stormiest [select your period here] ever. Then it doesn’t matter if it happens or not because everyone has absorbed the message. If correct, hammer it home, if wrong, say nothing and no one notices but still thinks it was so.

      • Absolutely so – both the UK Met Office and the religiously warmist BBC are constantly predicting hotter than ever temperatures that don’t materailise. I have no doubt it is deliberate.

        The Met Office got caught out this year by claiming the late August Bank Holiday as a new record but had to admit that this was only after they had changed a much earlier Record by reducing it on the day they announced the new record. They chose to ignore an earlier record for that same date in the 1930s which had been 2 degC hotter.

    • Thanks for showing how stable sea ice has been for over a decade Griff, should start to see the turnaround and the shift to higher levels within the next few years.

    • The data and the piece are about October. Why are you showing dates outside October?

      First fifteen days in October.

      All you have to do is read.

      • In defence of Griff: Yes, the article is about the first 15 days of October, but it’s often a very good idea to look at the whole picture to make sure that the selected date range isn’t misleading in some way. A selected data range is often the means to a cherry-pick.

        Griff’s very good graph is almost the same as the article’s excellent third graph. Apart from the colours used, the main difference is that Griff’s doesn’t show the shaded “normal” range. IOW, Griff’s shows a little bit less of the full picture. The article’s graph shows that sea ice extent is back up to the edge of the “normal” range, a fact that I suspect Griff is unwilling to highlight.

      • Griffie is an alarmist shill, Mike, paid to post sciency nonsense to confuse the unwary. I think he gets all of his stuff from his controllers.

    • What happened to the Arctic sea ice death spiral, Griffie?

      Does your employer feed you all this nonsense? Or do you spend your paid hours scanning alarmist sites?

    • The link shows sea ice extent for September and this article is about the rate -RATE- of sea ice growth for the first half of October. October is not September…not sure if you knew that.

    • Griff

      You didn’t get one thing right all year long with all your blathering over arctic sea ice, but now you think it’s time for you to point out when someone else is wrong. Take the bet or go away you fraud.

    • Unfortunately for Griff we are now into the re-freeze season and there are consequently some real thickness data from Cryosat (note that the data were collected over a month and therefore, on average, shows the ice thickness two weeks ago):

      • That shows Svalbard with connecting sea ice on 2 sides already.
        And Franz Josef Land completely surrounded with the Kara Sea around 90% covered.

        I wonder if the Ice Data from Cryosat is good data, it doesn’t seem to agree with other sources

      • Bryan A October 17, 2017 at 2:19 pm
        That shows Svalbard with connecting sea ice on 2 sides already.

        You must be looking at the wrong map, there is no ice shown connecting Svalbard, check the date.

      • It was connecting in the original image, prior to the image changing to the current version, it even had ice on the Hudson Bay

    • Does look like the Laptev Sea is frozen over compared to 2016 as a good bit of the Siberian coast. Plus it looks a lot thicker in the center this year versus last year.

    • Look at the trend in September growth Griff.

      Amazing isn’t it.

      Looks like the Arctic is heading into a rapid spiral reversal, wouldn’t you say griff.

      What will you do now that you have no more reason for bed-wetting about Arctic sea-ice?

      Your panic and whimpering was only ever brought on by your wilful ignorance in not accepting the fact that current sea ice levels are in well within the top decile of sea ice extent in the last 10,000 years

    • I must apologize for thinking you are one of those ” useful idiots “. I can’t think who you might be useful to.

      • Please could everyone stop picking on Griffy baby. I find him very funny ! I look forward to reading sensible comments and then Griff’s opinion which usually is more scientifically illiterate than me. The difference between us is that I am a statistician and I like data and I like to look at where it came from and how it is used (or misused !) most often by the Griff’s of this world. It was the misuse of data and heroism of Steve McKitrick that turned me into a serious skeptic.

      • I also forgot to mention the sheer unprofessionalism and dodgy work of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. If they were run by anyone except the Government they would be sued.

    • As from the time that MASIE was rolled out, the trend has been for increasing Arctic Sea Ice. Viz:

      Then, of course, when one looks at Greenland’s unadjusted temperatures, the 1940 was warmest, Viz:

      Interestingly, Greenland’s unadjusted temperatures corresponds closely with the AMO, Viz:

      It may be that the AMO, and not temperature is what determines Arctic Ice extent, after all HadCrut4 covering the Arctic shows that it is today no warmer than it was in the 1930s/1940s, and in fact the past was consistently warmer than today. (I will post the link in due course).

      • Here is the plot for the Arctic temperatures from which you will note that of the 24 years between 1922 to 1946 some 12 years had a positive temperature anomaly of +4 deg C, or more, whereas during the most recent 24 year period between 1992 and 2016, only 6 years had a positive anomaly of +4 degC, or more.

        No recent year has come anywhere close to the +7degC anomaly seen in 1937/38

        See generally:

      • “It may be that the AMO, and not temperature is what determines Arctic Ice extent, ”

        I would bet everything on it…..the Atlantic flows directly into the Arctic

    • When we look at ice we are Being told look at the thickness that is what matters. When we talk about the area, we are told look at the thickness, it is the thickness or the quantity of multi-year ice that matters. Now we are being told “look at the ice (not) thickness” is it the thickness you are saying is important? If so, there is about a 25% increase in 2 meter thick ice and a 40% increase in ice area (what will become (multi-year) second year ice)

    • Yes, Oct so far faster than 2011,2014, 2016 and the average. Faster means greater slope, Griff, not greater amount, although it obviously exceeds a number of years in amount as well, including several in the last 10 years you conveniently left off.

  8. 2012 and 2016 showed clearly that the path from minimum to maximum and from maximum to minimum yearly Arctic sea ice has no predictive power. “The more it melts, the more it refreezes” is the rule. There was lower than average melting from March to September 2017, so we should not expect a much higher refreezing to March 2018.

    March Arctic sea ice varies very little, so we know we should expect ~ 15 million sq. km by next March.

    • “The more it melts, the more it refreezes” This general rule must mean that with every year of refreezing, there is much saltier brine sinking into into the thermocline circulation. Plus more heat loss to space every year that there are open seas before refreezing. As compared to multi year ice where less of the heat loss and salt brine are accumulating. This must have some additional effect on overall weather and climate over longer time frames, globally.

      • I agree. The lower the Arctic sea ice the higher the energy lost to space during the dark Arctic winter. As with most climate phenomena, it has an in-built negative feedback effect that stabilizes the climate and slows down climate change in any direction.

      • I’m not sure about that MarkW. Incoming solar in the late spring, summer and early fall may accumulate more heating than cooling to space on open Arctic ocean waters. Net balance may be warming for those seasons but net cooling when including the dark arctic winter. But I stand to be corrected…

      • We’d better be careful, If that trens continues, we will see the end of the Arctic Sea Ice in 450 years or for you metric folk…450 years

      • During Arctic summer the issue is complicated by ice albedo. So it is not so straightforward to conclude that more heat is being lost.

      • At the low angles found in the arctic, even during the height of summer, the albedo of water is almost identical to the albedo of ice.
        There is no extra heat being absorbed.

      • I don’t think so MarkW. There is sunlight 24/7 for much of the Arctic summer which has a high angle of incidence for at least 12-14 hours a day, shining on darker water that absorbs this heat. It is expressed as watts per m2. To say this has almost the same albedo as ice is not the case. If the ocean were covered in ice, then I would agree with you on that point, but we are talking about open ice free Arctic ocean that is radiating heat to the universe but also accumulating solar energy over the course of the summer. A lot of other variables would matter as well, such as clouds, depth of water etc.

      • mark w is correct.there are around 10 weeks of the year where the air temp averages a few degrees above zero in summer. areas much further south in the northern hemisphere see sea temps dropping with far higher air temps than north of the 80th parallel . are the laws of physics applied differently once we reach the arctic ?

      • Earthling2

        I’m not sure about that MarkW. Incoming solar in the late spring, summer and early fall may accumulate more heating than cooling to space on open Arctic ocean waters. Net balance may be warming for those seasons but net cooling when including the dark arctic winter. But I stand to be corrected…

        So, let us look at Thursday, 12 Oct.
        Julian calendar, Day of Year = 285.
        Average 1979-2009 Arctic sea Ice area (not extents) = 6.246 Mkm^2

        From spherical geometry, this is equal an area from the Pole down to 77.3 North latitude.

        Arctic sea ice albedo this date (from J Curry, SHEBA expidition) = 0.83
        (Arctic sea ice this date is back to its “usual” winter levels from its July low of 0.42)

        Most of the day, the arctic sun is below the horizon.

        Hour	   Tau Day-Hr	Decl        	HRA         SEA	        SEA	       Air                                          .                                   Angle   Radian     Radian      Deg       Mass
        00.00	4.880	-0.1204	-3.1416	-0.3419	-19.6	0.000
        01.00	4.881	-0.1207	-2.8798	-0.3343	-19.2	0.000
        02.00	4.882	-0.1210	-2.6180	-0.3116	-17.9	0.000
        03.00	4.882	-0.1212	-2.3562	-0.2757	-15.8	0.000
        04.00	4.883	-0.1215	-2.0944	-0.2293	-13.1	0.000
        05.00	4.884	-0.1218	-1.8326	-0.1759	-10.1	0.000
        06.00	4.884	-0.1221	-1.5708	-0.1191	-06.8	0.000
        07.00	4.885	-0.1223	-1.3090	-0.0627	-03.6	0.000
        08.00	4.886	-0.1226	-1.0472	-0.0103	-00.6	0.000
        09.00	4.887	-0.1229	-0.7854	0.0346	002.0	19.527
        10.00	4.887	-0.1232	-0.5236	0.0690	004.0	12.409
        11.00	4.888	-0.1234	-0.2618	0.0906	005.2	  9.991
        12.00	4.889	-0.1237	0.0000	0.0978	005.6	  9.372
        13.00	4.889	-0.1240	0.2618	0.0901	005.2	10.042
        14.00	4.890	-0.1243	0.5236	0.0679	003.9	12.560
        15.00	4.891	-0.1245	0.7854	0.0330	001.9	20.039
        16.00	4.892	-0.1248	1.0472	-0.0125	-00.7	0.000
        17.00	4.892	-0.1251	1.3090	-0.0653	-03.7	0.000
        18.00	4.893	-0.1254	1.5708	-0.1223	-07.0	0.000
        19.00	4.894	-0.1256	1.8326	-0.1796	-10.3	0.000
        20.00	4.894	-0.1259	2.0944	-0.2336	-13.4	0.000
        21.00	4.895	-0.1262	2.3562	-0.2806	-16.1	0.000
        22.00	4.896	-0.1265	2.6180	-0.3171	-18.2	0.000
        23.00	4.897	-0.1267	2.8798	-0.3404	-19.5	0.000
         

        At Top of Atmosphere, the earth receives on this day 1366 watts/m^2. (Fairly close, actually, to its yearly average TOA value. Which is not surprising since this day is close to the equinox a few days before on Sept 22.)
        1366 watts x 24 hours = 32,393 watt-hours at TOA.

        But, of course, there is no Arctic sea ice at the Top of Atmosphere. (This surprises many climate students who have been forced to calculate the equivalent black body temperature for an insulated, isolated, insolated iceberg in space.) Let’s consider atmosphere attenuation for a flat 1 meter surface under clear skies at sea level in the Arctic.

        According to Trenberth’s flat-earth sketch for the bottom of the atmosphere using a nominal Air Mass, 342 watt/hr, averaged over a 24 hour day, and 198 watts landing on that flat surface each, 4752 watt-hours each day. Sounds like a lot of energy to be absorbed into each sq meter of this “missing Arctic sea ice”, doesn’t it?

        But look at the actual Solar Elevation Angle column in the table above. Notice the sun is very low in the sky at 77.3 north latitude, is only only above the horizon 7 hours of the day. The Air Mass at noon is 9.372!

        So, how much energy actually gets down to the Arctic surface on 12 October at 77.3 north latitude?

        Hour	SEA_Deg	AirMass	Perp	Flat
        00.00	-19.6	0.000	0	0
        01.00	-19.2	0.000	0	0
        02.00	-17.9	0.000	0	0
        03.00	-15.8	0.000	0	0
        04.00	-13.1	0.000	0	0
        05.00	-10.1	0.000	0	0
        06.00	-6.8	0.000	0	0
        07.00	-3.6	0.000	0	0
        08.00	-0.6	0.000	0	0
        09.00	2.0	19.527	5	0
        10.00	4.0	12.409	38	3
        11.00	5.2	9.991	77	7
        12.00	5.6	9.372	92	9
        13.00	5.2	10.042	76	7
        14.00	3.9	12.560	37	3
        15.00	1.9	20.039	4	0
        16.00	-0.7	0.000	0	0
        17.00	-3.7	0.000	0	0
        18.00	-7.0	0.000	0	0
        19.00	-10.3	0.000	0	0
        20.00	-13.4	0.000	0	0
        21.00	-16.1	0.000	0	0
        22.00	-18.2	0.000	0	0
        23.00	-19.5	0.000	0	0
        Total = 		330	28
        

        Same table as before, but the last two columns calculate how solar energy is measured at sea level perpendicular to the sun each hour, and how much direct radiation lands on a flat surface at 77.3 north latitude.

        Over the entire 24 hour day, only 28 watt-hours penetrates the earths atmosphere to strike the sea ice.

        Losses from the open sea surface average 2800 watts.

        Now, you have to repeat this calculation for each day of the year. And, yes, you find that – over the course of the entire year, 8 months of the year, there is a net heat loss to space when Arctic sea ice is lost. It is ONLY those few days from mid April to mid August that the sun warms the Arctic ocean sufficiently to overcome the increased losses from the open Arctic Ocean.

      • Thank you RACookPE1978 for the detailed calculations, as per example for Oct 12 at 77.3 north latitude. Very interesting on how the actual calculation is done for every aspect for every hour. I was replying to MarkW that he was wrong about his including summer that “The less the ice, the more heat lost to space all year around, not just winter.” My point was yes, but not for summer or the 120 days of net warming you also say is net warming. Overall, there is net cooling over the course of the year which I was saying as well. “Net balance may be warming for those seasons but net cooling when including the dark arctic winter.”

      • apologies dave fair, my formal education was not the best and my computer skills are near non existent.

      • RACookPE1978 October 18, 2017 at 2:20 pm

        Same table as before, but the last two columns calculate how solar energy is measured at sea level perpendicular to the sun each hour, and how much direct radiation lands on a flat surface at 77.3 north latitude.

        Over the entire 24 hour day, only 28 watt-hours penetrates the earths atmosphere to strike the sea ice.

        Yes but there’s about 250- 300W continuous IR striking the ice at that time.
        https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/np2008/gallery_np_weatherdata.html

    • And lets not forget,

      That slight decline is nothing but a natural RECOVERY from the most EXTREME HIGH levels of Arctic sea ice since the Little Ice Age

  9. Just when Warmists were fixated on thick old growth ice. They can’t handle the concept of new thick ice–it doesn’t fit the script. All new ice is hereby ordered to be thin and inconspicuous or risk becoming demonized ice.

  10. I don’t see anything special about this ice growth season.

    Arctic sea ice growth indistinguishable from previous years other than 2016.

    Greenland surface mass balance on the high side thanks to a couple of September storms.

    Let’s not fall into the trap of seeing climate in weather, like alarmists and newspapers.

    • Agreed, Javier. But the lack of an ongoing “death spiral” of the Arctic sea ice belies CAGW.

      The Alarmist Spokesmodels Supreme (ASSes) keep on predicting the death of Arctic sea ice. Given that, their “science” is severely flawed.

    • Javier

      I agree, this is an idiotic article.
      Now I will have to see a bunch of BS from Griff and actually have to agree with him and nothing makes me sicker than agreeing with anything that fraud/slander says.

    • Actually , Javier, looking at changes over September gives an interesting trend.

      October, it is freezing at similar rates to most of the last several years, interweaving the spaghetti.

      • Last years, summers have already been colder in the Arctic (above 80N). Click on the different years in the bar of the left side of this graph: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

        Because of a lower extent of covering sea ice, lower than fourty years ago, there is more ‘mixing’ of the upper layers of the Arctic Ocean. BELOW the Arctic Ocean surface layer, temperatures are some degrees HIGHER than in the fresher (floating on saltier) layer at the surface (because warmer saltier Atlantic ocean waters flowed in below that surface layer)

        More low pressure areas are visible in the Arctic area, Caleb wrote about that, calling the unusual low pressure areas ‘Ralph’: https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/?s=Ralph&submit=Search

        Different weather patterns bring more warm moist air to the Arctic region and are expelling colder Arctic air southwards. To have a look at what happens now (2017) in October: move the image slider in this forecast model:

        http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.T2_anom

        The cloudy moist air in summertime reflects the sun, cooling the Arctic. The imported relatively warm air in winter time diminished ice extent, if compared with the sixties and seventies. And warmer open seas ventilate energy. A stabilising mechanism.

        Low pressure areas that are moving southward bring more moist air to already cooling areas. Earlier snow has been registered over Siberia. If (!) this pattern is persistent in the coming years, a further cooling could result, both by energy ventilating iceless seas and earlier snow southwards cooling the atmosphere.

        To watch the role of low pressure areas in the growing extent of snow in Siberia and elsewhere: move the image slider here:
        http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.SNOWD-MSLP

    • Agreed javier,
      Recent warming has been greatest in the coldest places at the coldest times of year……..especially in the Arctic as one would expect. The Arctic Winter is still ahead and the pattern recently has been to have warmer Winters…… but it’s just October. Whatever is happening now probably doesn’t mean much at all. Even if this Winter is warm again or is colder than average, it still will be 1 Winter of weather too.

      However,

      Recent Summers/melt seasons have actually been on the cool side. This, despite going into them with less ice than in previous decades from mild Winters. Less ice and a bit more soot on old ice means a lower albedo but this has apparently not resulted in a measured positive feedback in the Summer from the additional solar radiation that should be getting absorbed vs reflected.

      I suppose that this could be warming the Arctic Ocean, which has more stored heat as a result. I am not closely familiar with the vagarities of Arctic weather, with it’s storms, wind and interaction between the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean circulations.

      If Arctic sea ice is actually in a “death spiral” then some of the positive feedback mechanisms expected have been under performing over the last decade. There is also alot of inertia, when making a turn from one phase/cycle to another with our oceans and the cryosphere…….at least with the Arctic. If the low in Arctic sea ice extent is in, this is what it would look like………..but so would a pause.

      One thing that is blatantly obvious now vs a decade ago or even 5 years ago, is that the ice is not going to melt as fast as predicted by all alarmists and many mainstream (human caused) climate change prognosticators.

      This is October 2017 and we are talking about climate here. Everyone wants to hang their hat on the latest month or latest year of data. In October 2027, we will have 10 more years of data. Will there be more ice or less ice then?

      If it’s just a bit less ice or the same or more ice………then it’s no problem. It’s only a problem if there’s MUCH less ice.

      Actually, that is only with regards to increasing CO2 being a problem. If there is much MORE ice because of global cooling, that would be a more serious problem for life and especially world food production for humans.
      In a decade, the world population will probably exceed 8 billion. That growing number of people need more food, more energy, more everything.
      A colder world means lower crop yields(vs a warmer one) increased drought and more extreme weather(sorry but that’s meteorology 101) and higher energy requirements for heating.

      As a Lukewarmer, this is not something I expect but the one thing that puzzles me most is folks, some of them way smarter than me, that are so confident in X amount of warming, especially when the numbers are greater than 2. Even more so in folks that are sure that greenhouse gas warming is not significant.

      Maybe its human nature that makes us think its dumb to not know something.
      I think its dumber to claim to know something, especially with certainty that you can’t possibly know.

  11. Arctic ice amounts can vary enormously each year and when at its thinnest in august And september is very susceptible to storm damage which can substantially reduce the final tally.

    It is far too early to say if there is an change in the general climate. Mind you it would be wise if we had at least a semblance of a plan ‘b’ that catered for the possibility of a cooler climate and all that implies. At present we ate entirely fixated on plan ‘a’ for a constantly warming climate.

    Tonyb

    • Tony, you hit the nail on the head. It is the same problem that securities analysts had for the subprime mortgage valuations: all the valuation models assumed that housing prices would never fall.

  12. It’s actually on the low side for yesterday’s date during the past 11 years. But that means little for either March high or September low next year.

    According to NSIDC for October 16:

    2013: 7.329 million sq km
    2008: 7.097
    2014: 6.871
    2010: 6.840
    2009: 6.681
    2015: 6.596

    2017: 6.450

    2011: 5.994
    2016: 5.652
    2007: 5.422
    2012: 5.422

    Yup, the two record low years of 2007 and 2012 were tied. Yet 2008 summer low was about average for this period and 2013 high.

    • gabro, those numbers are from Sea Ice Index (SII) which in the past gave higher reports of ice extents in October, sometimes unreasonably so. In January of 2017, SII went from version 2 to version 2.1, which should bring it closer to MASIE most months. Presently SII and MASIE are tracking each other in October, but for SII that will be lower than previous years.

      • I know that nothing from NOAA can be trusted, yet for year to year comparisons, they aren’t worthless, at least until the methodology changes again.

      • What is the phrase? Trust but verify? Unfortunately, it is another climatology database in which the past has changed, albeit not a lot and in the direction of operational observations that have not been adjusted.

    • Okay, well, 2010 was the autumn before that dreadful blizzard in February 2011, so in regard to WEATHER, does this mean that we’ll have a repeat of the Feb.2011 blizzard, or is there something else that can be gleaned from this?
      You aren’t telling me how hard the wind will blow from Siberia across the polar ice fields and hit Alaska/Canada, and subsequently, whack us poor souls in the upper Midwest, or not whack us.
      We had a very mild winter after December 2016’s beastly, foul, bitter winds and snow. So, what’s gonna happen?

      • The MJO is almost off the graph in zone 5. New October record. For this Hoosier trucker that goes E and NE quite a lot that means a lot of winter driving is probable. The La Nina conditions point to the same. What it means for others depends on where the are.

    • Given the highly inaccurate predictions coming out of climate “science,” that is about the best thing one could say about Arctic sea ice, Hokey.

    • The Laptev Sea is extremely shallow, probably the shallowest major sea area anywhere in the World. It loses heat and freezes rapidly. It also melts rapidly in spring when water from the Lena river hastens the process.

      • The Chukchi sea is considerably deeper than the Laptev sea. And in the Beaufort sea the shelf is actually narrower than anywhere else in the Arctic, about 100 km

    • Also, North Atlantic Drift brings more warm water past Norway and the Kola Peninsula than enters from the Pacific through the Bering Strait.

  13. Maybe somebody here will have a good answer. It appears that all the year long data 1979-2006 are grouped together and have a reasonable distribution. All the 2007-2017 are similarly grouped with a reasonable distribution.
    What happened in 2007 that would shift the ice coverage down by 1MM sqmi every year forward?

    • What actually happened is that the minimum autumn sea-ice decreased more or less uninterruptedly from 1979 to 2007. From 2007 on it has been stable though with some inter-year variability (2012 was lower due to an extrem storm in August)

    • The record low years all had at least one late season cyclone, which piled up the ice.

      The important fact to observe is that Arctic sea ice has quit declining, as it did from 1979-2012 in the dedicated satellite record. It has stayed flat for 11 years since 2007, but is now growing. The average five year interval 2013-17 was higher than for 2008-12.

    • If you look at the AMO you will see that 1979 was the very trough… the height of the “Global Cooling” scare .

      It then started climbing and has just about completed the flattish top it generally has.

      Heading downwards… Look for Arctic sea ice to increase of the next couple of decades.

      hmmm.. I thought I had a clean graph of the AMO, but instead, here is one with the Reykjavik temperatures overlaid..

      • You know, Andy, what is scary is the fact that climate “scientists” have this data also and continue to predict the death of Arctic sea ice. And no caveats ever!

      • Actually Dave, NOAA et al. have DESTROYED the Reykjavik temperature data to a stage where most of the 1940’s peak is now gone.

        So it is not surprising that pseudo-scientists that look at NOAA data are not going to see the obvious correlation.

        That is one of the BIG issues with all this data tampering, it stops people from seeing reality, and understanding what is actually happening.

      • Still, Andy, the lack of curiosity by supposed scientists is amazing. Just accepting someone’s word about things outside their narrow specialty and ignoring contrary information is intellectual dishonesty.

        Given all the money wastage, there will be Truth and Reconciliation commissions.

      • Just eyeballing that graph, it looks suspiciously like about 20 yrs up, 20 yrs down: decade starting ca 1880 to the decade ending ca 1919 – down; decade starting ca 1920 to decade ending ca 1940 – up; decade starting ca 1941 to decade ending ca 1980 – down; decade starting ca 1981 to decade ending ca 2010 – up; decade starting ca 2011 to…well heck, it’s too early to say, but it certainly looks like the beginning of a down trend.

        Now what else is moving in a similar if slightly staggered/phased (either ahead or behind) cycle? It’s not a snarky question – I don’t know whether there is anything in cycles (though I have my views). But it surely ought to be a question real scientists ask.

        Cycles don’t explain “causation”, but understanding whether cycles really are “in play” (and whether they are must to some extent be based on empirical results) might go some way to focusing research into “causation”.

        One thing for sure, this graph doesn’t “fit” CO2’s “WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE” rise since 1880 or 1950, or any other arbitrarily picked date, does it?

  14. I just noticed the ENSO ‘meter’ on the right hand side of the page has dropped from neutral to -.4 C. Meaning after 3 months or so, we are officially in La Nina territory. While this isn’t recent news, I recall just last spring the meter was leaning towards a weak El Nino. No significant sunspots except for some dramatic events, a slow rebound in Arctic ice cover, and a pause that is now going on 18-19 years in any statistical warming plus many other longer term trends turning towards the cooling ledger, it is abundantly apparent that the planet is in a natural oscillation that doesn’t explain climate sensitivity being all due to CO2. This alone upends that entire philosophy/religion.

    It is time that the political, academic and journalistic forces that are so hell bent on a linear warming of the planet are persuaded that there must be a fact based assessment of reality based observation that is free of any kind of manipulation. I sense the general population is already heading in that direction, although there is plenty of money at stake in keeping the status quo, and alarmism sells more than boring variability. In 30 more years, this will all be so much more abundantly clear, and facts and truth always tend to bubble up to surface.

  15. chad, it is a short time frame so no explanation can be for certain. In the background is a quasi-60 year arctic cycle which peaked around 1977, which puts 2007 30 years later. The satellite data from 1979 shows something like this:

    https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/x-ray-ice-mirror5.png?w=1000&h=376

    It is not what happened in 2007, but what stopped happening. For one thing we know a lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007.

    Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux:

    The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994.

    http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~klinck/Reprints/PDF/kwokJGR99.pdf

    Then too in 1999 there was a major eruption in the sea floor underneath the north pole.

  16. Never in the history on mankind has so much brain power been wasted on so much rubbish. There! That’s my Churchillian statement.

  17. More ice in the Arctic is not a good news, it might herald return of colder climate in the N. Hemisphere where most of population lives. Cold means shorter growing season, less rain less food production; population of China has doubled (0.66 to 1.4 *GP)and India nearly trebled (0.45 to 1.3 GP) since the last cool period in the 960s. According to my ‘recreational’ research there is a notable correlation between Arctic temperature and strength of South Asia monsoons.
    For the more advanced North nations lot more energy will be required, while on the geopolitical stage only Russians have enough icebreaker facility to ‘lord’ over not only their large section but the international waters too. All in all, not a time to rejoice when the Arctic is getting colder .
    (*GP = GigaPeople)

    • PRECISELY !!

      The so-called Arctic spiral was nothing but a RECOVERY from the coldest peak since the Little Ice Age

      The late 1970’s shows up very clearly in Icelandic sea ice data.

    • I still ceases to amaze me that climate alarmists seem to think COLD and LESS CO2 is better.

      ITS NOT !!

      The world THRIVES on warmth and FLOURISHES with higher CO2 levels.

      The whole CO2-HATRED mantra is a some sort of cognitive madness. !

      • Heat waves and droughts and more violent storms and sea level rise and reduction in nutrition from staple food plants and ocean acidification are just some of the accompanying disbenefits to a CO2 increase you are ignoring.

      • The IPCC has a hard time finding My increase in extreme weather, Griff. Including droughts. So why are you hanging onto that so tightly? And your claim about reduction in food nutrition seems very dubious at best.

      • “Griff October 18, 2017 at 4:38 am

        Heat waves and droughts and more violent storms and sea level rise and reduction in nutrition from staple food plants and ocean acidification are just some of the accompanying disbenefits to a CO2 increase you are ignoring.”

        Approx 40% CO2 increase since the start of the industrial revolution there have been no…

        …more heat waves than before.
        …more droughts than before.
        …more violent storms than before.
        …more sea level rise than after the little ice age.
        …ocean acidification at all.

        Since the increase in CO2 plant life has increased dramatically including the stuff we eat. So your entire post is pure, unadulterated, uninformed and ingnorant, drivel.

  18. Ice melt. Ice freeze.
    Ice melt. Ice freeze.
    Swiftly, swiftly flow the years!
    Brief seasons of warmth and happiness,
    mocked by bone chilling death and bitter tears.
    Ice melt. Ice freeze.
    Ice melt…… Ice freeze.

  19. Well, looks like no one but the Old Farmers Almanac and the Farmers Almanac can answer my question about what winter weather will be like. They both are saying snowy and mild in the upper Midwest (my AO), so since none of youse guys with all yer charts ‘n’ graphs and griffs ( :) ) can gmme a weather forecast, I’ll stick with the Almanacs.
    White bean soup is quite good when it’s fresh. I added left over smoked sausage to it. And my gas bill says I have three months’ credit toward winter because of the budget plan.
    When you get that forecast, let me know, okay?
    Griff, don’t hurt yourself with those charts, now.

    • Sara
      The Old Farmers Almanac missed it badly last winter. Ever check out Joe Bastard’s free videos at Weatherbell.com?

    • Assuming you live in state of Illinois or nearby
      probably 2+ degrees cooler than in the last two years but not as cold as in 2014

      It has a bit of the AMO built in and the USA is affected by elNino hence 5 & 9 year LPF.
      You can estimate probabilities from the years past.

      • Yeah, see, right in the middle of that chart is 1967. Big dip there. That was the year of the unexpected January 1967 that shut down Chicago, when the forecast was two inches of snow. 2017 was the 50th anniversary of that blizzard. I was still down in central Illinois then. Two months later, I was on my way to RTC(W) Bainbridge, MD for WAVES boot camp. Took forever for spring to really show up.

  20. A few comments about how bad and cold it was 50 years ago before the current warming particularly in the NH. Seems to fit in with the warmist scare of we are all going to die if it gets hotter (we are all going to die if it gets cooler). Since real change of significance takes thousands of years on average, with or without CO2 one would suggest taking a chill powder and not making alarming comparisons.
    Of course I live in nice hot SH and hence have little need to feel concern.

    • Except angech, one Super La Nina coinciding with a chaotic cooling event such as volcanic activity, results in less food being grown per acre. Always be terrified of global cooling. It introduces things like the Dark Ages, or the collapse of civilizations as is recorded in history. Halloween was in part, this dread associated with the loss of sunlight and colder temperatures in the NH, along with death. Comparing warming with cooling is a fatal mistake, as anyone knows who lives in the north. I can survive maybe several days or a week without water in a warm climate…I may only last a few hours or less in the freezing cold.

  21. I’m enjoying this . . .
    Paris exit.
    Steve Bannon.
    Kathleen White.
    Scott Pruitt.
    Arctic ice.
    Harvey Weinstein is the icing.
    THE LEFT GETTING ITS COMEUPPANCE

    • climate change science has nothing to do with the left and outside the US things continue as before.

      even in the US, 12 coal plant closures have been announced since Trump took office.

      arctic ice has in no way recovered… 11 years have passed and we are nowhere near 2006 levels.

      • The “Climate Change is going to kill all the brown people and the West has a moral duty to stop Climate Change by impoverishing itself cutting out CO2 emissions” is ENTIRELY the meme of the political Left.

        The political Left has been on this bandwagon since the very, very beginning – because it is self-loathing, and projects that hatred onto the “white” West. Nothing more self-righteous or self-loathing than a Lefty SJW.

        Even a cursory, objective glance over almost any Grauniad article (or similar Lefty rags anywhere in the Anglophone world) will demonstrate immediately the degree of antipathy the Left has, and that it entirely supports “WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE” unless the bad, bad West stops burning fossil fuels meme.

  22. Let’s be clear, if you believe in AGW you’re one of the following:
    Lazy.
    Uneducated.
    Opportunistic.
    Left wing.
    Criminal.

      • That is what you deal in Griff. “Utter nonsense”.
        Arctic sea ice is not in a “death spiral”. Greenland SMB continues the climb started last year. Multi-year ice increasing. Fat & healthy Polar bears abound. Over all SLR rate remains steady. There is absolutely nothing unusual occuring with the Arctic weather or climate that should alarm any rational person.

      • The Greenland SMB isn’t increasing Rah

        https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-greenland-ice-sheet-2017

        “Overall, initial figures suggest that Greenland may have gained a small amount of ice over the 2016-17 year. If confirmed, this would mark a one-year blip in the long-term trend of year-on-year declines over recent decades.

        The unusual year is mainly down to heavy snow and rain in winter and a relatively short and intermittent summer melt season. And the source of that bumper winter snowfall was the remnants of a hurricane that wreaked widespread damage 4,500km away in Bermuda.”

        The polar bear populations on the Beaufort Sea, Hudson Bay and around Svalbard are under stress (and nobody looks at most of the populations)

        The arctic is warming and the sea ice is in trouble

  23. More open water in the arctic during the fall, winter and spring, means more snow in the land areas bordering the arctic.
    Being further south and on land instead of water, this snow does dramatically increase the amount of sunlight reflected back to space.
    Additionally, the more snow there is, the longer it takes for the snow to melt during the short summer.

    • To see NOAA … animation, you’d think there is no more multiyear ice, defin d as ice that has survived at least one melt season. But their graph is misleading to me. The old ice mostly disappeared in 2007. Most of it appears to have been blown out. Since then, 9 yr old ice pretty much gone, but there is still plenty of multi year ice. After this year, there should be an increase in multi year ice.

      • There’s a lot of 2 year and ‘this year’ ice, all of it much thinner than in previous years. but 4, 5 year and older? not a lot.

        Old over 3m ice is hardly found any more.

        since the Beaufort keeps melting right out, the ice which the currents drag into the central arctic where it thickens up just isn’t being supplied any more -yet Fram export continues to take the remaining thicker ice out to melt…

      • griff, you and the other alarmists really need to get a grip. there are wedges of ice up there 50 metres thick, never mind 50 feet. they may well have originated from glaciers but with increased open water as seen last winter the extra fetch means there are huge slabs of ice that have piled on top of each other, many ten metres plus thick. you only have to look at recent arctic imagery to see this.

        overall thickness/ volume is a best guess no matter what anyone says. given the history of the people issuing these best guesses i doubt very much they are erring on the thick side.

  24. Bet dollars to doughnuts that if this continues, they’ll blame volcanos.

    I’ve been reading the past few months about volcanos and think the reason why is that its a preemptive move to condition the easily triggered snowflakes.

    • That would depend upon whether it interrupted the trend.

      There were unusually low ice years during the cooling trend from the 1940s-70s, just as there were higher than usual years during the warming trend from the 1980s to 2010s.

    • It has to drop a heck of a long way to reach MWP low extents,

      and even further to the often zero summer sea ice of the first 7000 or years of the current inter-glacial we are BLESSED to live in.

    • Until well into August this year it was tracking at ‘third lowest’ on extent.

      the ice is thinner than in previous years…
      this year was colder than in recent years in the central arctic… that’s not likely to be a permanent change…

      Only unusually cold (for present times) weather saved us from a record this year: we will definitely see a new sub-2012 record within 5 years.

      and when it happens, how can the skeptic view answer?

      • Yes Griff …. the ice is thinner, and it is supposed to be thinner. The question going forward is what happens over the next few decades. I’m certain that back in the 1930s minimum, there was less 10 yr old ice just like today. The NOAA animation I referenced earlier starts at the cycles maximum, so one would expect more older ice to be present. It has gradually blown out, melted. We now appear to be at a cyclic low …. and if history serves as any indicator, by 2040, there will be more 10 yr old ice than today. OTOH …. there are those who think over the next 20 or so years, the ice will disappear due to global warming. The evidence for such is to flimsy to mention, and is mostly wrapped up in a belief, and alternative agenda. …… but the question going forward will be answered in the future …… not in a mindcraft game (computer model)

      • Dr D the lowest point in the last cycle was probably 1943… we are way beyond 60 years after that. And much lower extent etc than in 1943.

        The arctic is definitely warming… why on earth is it going to change trajectory now?

      • griff, i am willing to bet my house with a legally signed document with anyone (against their house) that thinks the arctic sea ice extent will drop below 1 million square kilometres anytime in the next 20 years. so far not one single alarmist has been willing to take this bet up, not one. you are all full of s***

      • re griff
        **The arctic is definitely warming… why on earth is it going to change trajectory now?**
        I call definitely BS on that statement griff. Show us some real MEASUREMENTS.

    • Say it has happened before and will happen again. It is after all weather. As Joe Bastardi said recently remarking on the hype of hurricane Ophelia. “History counters hysteria”. A concept alien to the snowflake tools, but understood by their handlers thus the efforts to revise the history or to not present it by cherry picking the start and end dates of the data they present.

  25. For the 15% of us males that are color deficient, we would appreciate fewer, more dispersed colors and perhaps symbols to separate the lines of information.

  26. There is a weather website in the UK which has several forums including climate change. There has been for several a thread each year on the Artic sea ice and anyone not claiming the ice would disappear completely each year was basically forced out of any kind of discussion. It has been incredibly quiet this year and a person who compiled stats on the sea ice extent surrender in August and never bothered with any more updates.

    • a link to this website would be appreciated. it would appear there could be hours of endless fun on there ;)

  27. I’m puzzled. Here in the UK, the BBC has not had a single news item on this rapid refreezing of the Arctic ice….

    • Perhaps they haven’t reported it because it is simply doing what it does every autumn when the sun goes down, and is entirely within norms.

      • They sure reported the prognostications that it would set a new minimum this summer though. That didn’t happen and that was news, but did the BBC give that fact coverage? Did they go back to the “experts” that said it would or could happen to find out what they had to say? Have they delved into why the “death spiral” is not spiraling? Have they asked why the SMB of the Greenland ice cap is growing when so many “experts” have said it would continue to decline?

      • “Have they asked why the SMB of the Greenland ice cap is growing when so many “experts” have said it would continue to decline?

        In a warming world there is expected to be snowfall over the icecap, however the glaciers will also carve more mass into the sea.

        “Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr.”

        https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

      • “because it isn’t really happening”

        Do you never tire of lying on behalf of some of the most unpleasant, exploitative individuals on the planet at present, who can buy and sell the likes of you for the change in their pockets?

        You’re entirely without self-respect.

  28. Some day all those obsessed with Arctic ice cover will find that they have grown old and weary and only then will they realize they wasted most of their lives on a fool’s errand.

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