As I mentioned a couple days ago, what used to be Hurricane Ophelia would likely hit Ireland as an post-tropical system. That happened today, with the storm at tropical storm strength.
There’s the usual caterwauling among climate alarmists that this storm has set “unprecedented” records, mainly because it was the 10th named Atlantic Hurricane this year. But, as I pointed out, this happened three times before, over 100 years ago. Those who’d like to pin Ophelia being the 10th named storm this year on “climate change” would have to explain why the same thing happened three times within a space of a few years over 100 years ago, when the planet was cooler. From NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER:
NASA sees Hurricane Ophelia lashing Ireland
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided a thermal view of the clouds in hurricane Ophelia as it lashed Ireland. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission core satellite provided a look at the rainfall that was affecting the Emerald Isle.
The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core observatory passed directly above Hurricane Ophelia on October 14, 2017 at 12:56 p.m. EDT (1656 UTC) when it was a powerful category three on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale with sustained winds of close to 115 mph (100 knots).
GPM’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments collected data showing the locations of extremely heavy rainfall with [sic] within the hurricane. GPM’s radar unveiled intense downpours in the northeastern side of Ophelia’s eye wall that were dropping rain at the extreme rate of over 8.4 inches (213 mm) per hour. GPM saw rainfall in other intense feeder bands producing rain at a rate of over 3.9 mm [sic] inches (100 mm) per hour.
At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, a 3-D animation revealed the height of precipitation within hurricane Ophelia. The animation was produced by combining data from GPM’s radar (DPR Ku band) with heights of cloud tops based on GOES-EAST satellite image temperatures.
The National Hurricane Center said that that the rainfall GPM observed would be affecting Ireland. Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.
The 3-D animation showed storm tops in the northeastern side of Ophelia’s eye wall (bright yellow) were shown by GPM’s radar reaching heights of above 7.6 miles (12.4 km). The structure of hurricane Ophelia’s eye wall is clearly shown with this close-up virtual flyby above the center of the tropical cyclone. GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.
On Sunday, Oct. 14 at 11 p.m. EDT/AST, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia. The storm had transitioned from a hurricane to a post- tropical cyclone and was centered about 220 miles (355 km) southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland near 49.2 degrees north latitude and 13.3 degrees west longitude.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph (70 kph). On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday, Oct. 16 and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph (140 kph) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western Norway by Tuesday night, Oct. 17. The estimated minimum central pressure was 969 millibars.
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite measured temperatures of Ophelia’s cloud tops as it passed overhead early on Oct. 16. The VIIRS instrument aboard captured a thermal image of Hurricane Ophelia over Ireland on Oct. 16 at 02:54 UTC (Oct. 15 at 10:54 p.m. EDT). Coldest cloud tops appeared northwest of the center, showing that the upper level of Ophelia was pushed from wind shear.
NHC forecaster Berg said “the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia’s center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal.”
On Oct. 16, the U.K. Met Service Chief Forecaster Paul Gundersen said that Ophelia weakened on Sunday night and was no longer classified as a hurricane. However, the UK Met Service expects hurricane force winds of up to 80 mph across Northern Ireland, and some areas bordering the Irish Sea.
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National Severe Weather Warnings are in place for Northern Ireland, and other western and northern parts of Britain for Oct, 16, Monday afternoon and evening. For updated forecasts and warnings, visit: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk.
This image from earth.nullschool.net shows post tropical system hitting the northernmost part of Scotland as of this writing.
The NOAA National Hurricane Center is no longer tracking the remnants of Ophelia.
However, the UK Met Office issued a statement:
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia will bring stormy conditions to western parts of the UK today (Monday 16 October).
Although this ex-hurricane will bring impactful weather to many northern and western parts of the UK, the forecast for other areas – such as South East England – is for warm and mainly dry conditions to dominate.
Met Office Chief Forecaster Paul Gundersen said: “Ophelia weakened on Sunday night and is now no longer classified as a hurricane. That said, storm force to hurricane force winds of up to 80mph across Northern Ireland, and some areas bordering the Irish Sea will result in travel disruption, power cuts and some damage to buildings such as tiles being blown from roofs.
“National Severe Weather Warnings are in place for Northern Ireland, and other western and northern parts of Britain for Monday afternoon and evening and everyone in these areas should prepare for longer travel journeys and ensure they take the necessary precautions to ensure they and their families and property are safe.”
The rest of the UK will have a windy day, but wind gusts are not expected to bring widespread disruption.
more here
Note: there are two typos in the NASA press release indicated bi [sic} and strikethroughs. H/T to reader David Burton.
It wasn’t an exceptional storm in any respect – wind or rain, we get storms that give 90/100+ gusts on headlands and hills all the time.
By chance it arrived 30 years to the day after ‘the great storm’ of 1987 – which hit different areas – more England/Europe – but was far worse with massive widespread damage, millions of mature trees felled, 120mph gusts in England, higher elsewhere, and multiple deaths.
In fact TV programs gave more time to the anniversary of the great storm than the current one in the UK!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987
H H Lamb tried to class the great historical storms in North West Europe as to severity and effects. The “Great Storm of 1987” came in as #9. The complete list is here:
http://assets.cambridge.org/97805216/19318/excerpt/9780521619318_excerpt.pdf
As to wind strength it wasn’t even close to the top. The great storm of 1703, judging from pressure gradients, reached 150 mph (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale)
All known thanks, point is, even in living memory latest storm amounts to ‘nothing’ significant.
TTY – thank you, a really useful link. The plot diagram is particularly devastating to the usual “never seen before weather” brigade and the useful reminder that it was only after the 1880s that reliable measurement of wind speeds/severity really began.
I remain deeply sceptical about claims of unprecedented weather/climate events this last 50 years and this includes claims of unprecedented heat as well as cold.
About 75% of available wind energy was curtailed (switched off) during the storm in Ireland. Around 2200MW.
The sky turned Martian red in London yesterday… lights came on by 3pm.
Definitely weird (saharan dust/smoke from Portugal dragged in by storm to west)
Martian red? Must be all that extra CO2. Let us know if you see any giant tripod machines.
“Definitely weird (saharan dust/smoke from Portugal dragged in by storm to west)”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-41654436
There is a simpler explanation for that: the Martians are coming!
Martian red? Mars is actually a very boring beige.
Define weird. It was odd looking but is not that uncommon. It happens every few years.
I have completed an analysis of observations from bouys and weather reporting stations in Ireland during Ophelia. Highest sustained wind and gust was at Roches Point (Lighthouse), just south of Cork at 60/84 Kts.
The storm hit land at Valentia with a low pressure of 962 mb.
More info at http://www.weatherblog.uk/blog
So in short it was a rather strong storm with hurricane-strength gusts.
I’m out and about today and I’ve seen far greater damage from storms in the past. I’m well away from the coast, so didn’t get the worst of it. Average storm locally. I think the thing was, it tracked over the whole country.
The media had a field day!!
In the early 1800’s there was a storm known as “the night of the big wind” 25% of buildings in Dublin were damaged.
Now that was a storm.
No more leaves fallen off the tees than any other day this last week
Do we remember remember September, you know, that *REALLY* hot one we’ve all just been through – the one that really proves Global Gas Warming Catastrophe blah blah blah Theory.
Yeah you got it, *that* one.
Does this pic show up:
?w=1440&h=892
It kinda intimates that this storm started over ‘ordinary’ water, ran over a bit of slightly warm then went over some cooler than normal as it got near Ireland.
Remind me about how ‘warm water triggers hurricanes’……………….
Going back to Houston Harvey and all the rain that landed on hot, heavenly, hapless and harried by hurricanes Houston.
I recall the BBC Climate Muppet, whatever his name these days, was blaming all the rain on the Cassius Clapron Castuis Iron Effect (warm air and extra moisture, something ‘clever’ that warmists use to exaggerate the size of their willies. Not difficult for them)
Excel is great innit because it works out things.
So, does 27degC give you, in a typical Houston Hurricane what, say 15 inches of rain? That’s a big dump.
Excel tells me that if the BBC Climate Muppet was correct, the air temperature over Houston must have been 67 degC
Was that the case because if not it renders his willy even smaller that Korean Kim’s, but at least the fat little piglet Kim can blame rampant diabetes for the damn-near invisibility of his member.
“It kinda intimates that this storm started over ‘ordinary’ water, ran over a bit of slightly warm then went over some cooler than normal as it got near Ireland.
Remind me about how ‘warm water triggers hurricanes’……………….”
It does, and did for Ophelia.
(they need other things tho, like no wind shear aloft and no dry zone in the mid-trop).
It formed S of the Azores in a region where SSTs where in the region of 27/28C (a +2C anomaly BTW). It was advected north over cooler waters and transition into a post-tropical storm driven by cold air entering its circulation.
“Excel tells me that if the BBC Climate Muppet was correct, the air temperature over Houston must have been 67 degC”
I helps if you know what you’re talking about.
The term “muppet” is most apt with you my friend.
The Clausius Clapeyron relation does indeed show that a vast amount of energy is released by condensation of ocean surface evaporated WV higher in the Troposphere that falls as rain. Houston had the rain it had because that process continued for some days.
It’s called advection and is a common cause of high rainfall events, where systems become ‘stuck’.
temp difference, not absolute temps.. the absolute temp claim is a fallacy and shown to be ridiculous claims, in the historical record
What is this “ex-hurricane” thing? New climate change lingo to maximize effect? Former hurricanes are called tropical storms/depressions.
Look up the Monty Python sketch .. you know, the ‘parrot’ one.
But suffice because it was once a hurricane and is no more.
For the sensationalist press who would dearly love to call it still a hurricane.
The dead parrot is like the missing heat during the hideatus. It’s not dead, just hiding that’s all.
Ex Hurricane allows you to still say Hurricane, rather than storm.
That is the only purpose
Fast forward to Ireland in 2020 (sorry I’m not fluent with the local colloquialisms):
Daughter: The wind just blew the trash can lid off
Mom: That was ex-hurricane Ophelia
D: Ophelia was 3 years ago…
M: Hurricanes never die
D: How do you know it wasn’t another ex-hurricane
M: You have a good mind that asks questions. You should study to be a scientist
D: A climate scientist?
M: Uh, no. You ask too many questions.
The UK is now experiencing climate change in the form of storms and flooding
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28716-wavy-air-patterns-mean-uks-extreme-storms-are-here-to-stay/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28779-uk-rains-broke-river-flow-record-and-climate-change-is-to-blame/
Give it up Griff, I too can bore you with numerous papers saying the opposite – that are less selective/dishonest with the evidence!
UK reporting records go back around 250 years and there are hundreds of reports of weather far worse than what we see today, floooding far worse before urbanisation too.
unless you think weather started in 1988 that is, you are having a laugh, UK flooding is weak compared to centuries gone by
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Latimer Alder: How to be spectacularly wrong:
In an infamous weather broadcast in October 1987 Michael Fish wrongly denied claims a hurricane was going to hit Britain.
Hours after he said there was no hurricane coming “but it will be very windy in Spain” there was devastation across the UK that claimed 18 lives.
During the segment, he said: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”
By coincidence, like Annie (comment just above yours) I was also asleep in Fleet, Hampshire. My sister woke me saying the power is all out and we should go into the town center to see if we could get breakfast.
I had slept through the whole thing and it was quite surreal walking into the center of town having to go round fallen trees, many very large old trees and their resting places were cars, garden sheds, garages and for the most unfortunate – right onto their homes.
But (though I was now in Australia) did the UK not get hit with similar storms for 2-3 years – being dubbed ‘killer-storms’?
“In an infamous weather broadcast in October 1987 Michael Fish wrongly denied claims a hurricane was going to hit Britain.”
No he didn’t…. he was refering to a Carribean hurricane, and they don’t occur outside of the Maritime Tropics.
The day SSTs around the UK are ~27C then we truely would have ‘warmed’.
What hit was a mid-latitude depression.
“Hours after he said there was no hurricane coming “but it will be very windy in Spain” there was devastation across the UK that claimed 18 lives.”
He actually said “Spain into France”.
I watched the forecasts that week (working as a meteorologist at an RAF base in Lincolnshire) leading up to the day and it was always going to be v windy just over the Channel.
It is also commonly thought that the lack of warnings saved lives as few people were about (happened overnight) trying to mitigate its effects.
What was missed, because of a dearth of observatons back then in Biscay, was a ‘jet streak’ that caused explosive cyclogenesis of the wave depression and turned it left.
The national press of course made a big thing of it (they live in the SE/London area).
Fish did a program yesterday in the South ‘Inside Out’, dispelling all the myths about his infamous forecast – it’s amazing how the collective memory is forged by the press reaction after, and not what he actually said.
He did predict strong winds, it was not technically a Hurricane, and he was actually referring to the real hurricane ‘Floyd’ with his patter.
Bill Giles delivered the last forecast that night and got it just as as ‘wrong’
Correct Grim…..
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hurricane-fish-storm-deadly-michael-weatherman-prediction-wrong-false-a7995356.html
I got lashed in Ireland a few times. Last time was at Flaherty’s in Dingle.
The three years with 10 named hurricanes over 100 years ago; of course that was pre satellite. At that time, a storm like Ophelia would not have been labeled as a hurricane.
We dont call it a Hurricane, we call it “a bit of weather”.
It should be noted that the Irish Meteorological Service classified Ophelia as a Storm when it hit Ireland, On the subject of those people who believe that this activity indicates pending climatic disaster and despite such activity having occurred in the past (e.g. late 19th century) these people still persist in the extraordinary belief that mankind is responsible. In my view unfortunately this belief will be almost impossible to shake and can only be likened to religious fundamentalism and consequently nigh on impossible to shift.
This held belief will continue to make it harder to get people to open their minds to logical and objective thinking in the climate change debate. I fear therefore that governments and those in control will just perpetuate this belief as it appeases the majority of electors. This is sad when one considers the billions that is being, and will undoubtedly continue to be, spent in pursuit of “solutions” to attempt to control the climate.
Yes. Ireland was not hit by a Hurricane landfall, and any claims to the contrary are patently false
Which doesn’t mean that those claims will not be repeated….ad nauseaum.
Good points Patrick – from your namesake.
As a large majority of the Irish population are still practising Catholics they listen to the global warming New religion coming from our crazy Pope. Just this week he stated that global warming is one of the main reasons for world famine and the new Muslim exodus.
This despite the Sahara greening and record crop growth due to the magic gas – carbon dioxide.
I also notice that the little sister of the Biased BBC (RTE) is going strong on the ‘possible connection’ between this wind and global warming.
I did not notice any mention of all those useless windmills being shut down – due to too much wind!
I live in Limerick in the south West of Ireland. Storm Ophelia was severe but by no means exceptional – Xmas eve storm 1998 and storm in February 2015 were far more intense and destructive. Similarly I remember a number of storms in the 1970s flattening many trees in the golf course across the road from me. Also storm Ophelia discharged hardly any rain which limited its effect, although it did a fair bit of damage to trees as many still had most of their leafs, as one would expect in mid October. The most remarkable thing about the storm, however, has been the tidal wave of hyperbole, exaggeration and false links to CAGW from the usual suspects.
Chris, I couldn’t agree more.
Our Irish Minister for Stupidity (Sorry, Climate Change!) has announced that we will get a storm like every 5-6 years from now on, “because climate”. He called for more money to combat this (what a surprise!)
I believe it is rampant opportunism, gullibility and political pandering to the CAGW lunatic fringe.
Of course, he could be that stupid…..
Joe Bastardi documents 3 storms since 1961 that are comparable to this storm. You have to scroll down to the Saturday Summary to get the video:
https://www.weatherbell.com/
I’m surprised he didn’t post here – unless I missed it…
Could not compare to Debbie in 1961
Faith in 1966 went way to the north of Ireland
In addition , extreme phase 5 MJO in october favored enhanced activity in the exact area Ophelia came out of. The reason we know that is because research from Vitart at ECMWF shows the correlation of phase 4/5 in the eastern atlantic WHICH MEANS IT HAD TO HAVE HAPPENED BEFORE if there is a correlation. Bottom line for intensity of wind, Harvey was no Carla (1961( ,and a slew of other storms in Texas ( its rain aspect was because it was caught in cold trough, the product of the phase 2 of the MJO that set off the hurricane burst) Irma was no Donna in Florida and Ophelia was no Debbie in Ireland Peace out
Thanks Joe,
I went to Penn State for a year in 1962 and majored in civil engineering. I have been tracking hurricanes since the early 1950’s. After a year at Penn State I switched to commercial art and ended up at the Phila. College of Art.
At Penn State I spent a lot of time climbing Mt Nittany and the mountains south of there, and playing the piano in the girls dorms (they all had a piano) instead of studying.
Joe Paterno was an assistant coach when I was there at State College…just sayin…
A hurricane remnant (Debbie I think) passed up the west coast of Ireland in the early 1960s
In the last days (I think 28th) of August, 1986, the remnants of Hurricane Charley of that year, described back then by meteorologists as a ‘post-tropical cyclone’ crossed the Atlantic and then Ireland southwest to northeast, before finally dissipating to the north of Scotland, on a track very similar to that of the Ophelia. The track of Charley 1986 can easily be found in the archives of the NOAA. While there was not so much wind as with Ophelia, an extraordinary amount of rain fell in the Dublin area (which is usually drier than the West averaging about 35 inches per year) causing the worst flooding Dublin had seen for decades, and passing into local folklore simply as ‘Hurricane Charley’.
Ophelia 2017, on the other hand, brought very (but not unprecedenedly) high winds and surprisingly little rain, as well as peculiar features such as unseasonably high temperatures and Saharan dust on its eastern margins (over Southern England)
Ireland gets anything from 2 or 3 to 10 or 12 Atlantic storms (or ‘deep depressions’ as Met Eireann, the Irish weather service usually calls them) in a typical Autumn-Winter season. The rarer events, when hurricane remnants originating in the tropics re-constitute themselves as extratropical storms, occur every couple of decades, and seem to combine the characteristics of a strong (but typical) autumn/winter storm with some unusual features inherited from their tropical origins.
Ophelia’s track was forecast by Met Eireann (no doubt with the assistance of information shared by weather forecasting services of other nations including the USA) with a high degree of accuracy as to track, intensity and timing of arrival, for more than 48 hours before its arrival at Ireland’s south coast on Monday morning. Met Eireann and the Irish government authorities undoubtedly helped save lives (3 lives were tragically lost in accidents, all relating to fallen trees) by issuing severe weather alerts and closing all schools, colleges and public offices in the country on Monday and by successfully urging many private businesses to do the same, in an attempt to persuade people to stay indoors during the (daytime) storm.
The previous storm having similar intensity and destructiveness to Ophelia took place in January/February of 2012, if I remember correctly. Since it did not have prior history as a named hurricane, it was not as highly anticipated, nor given such international media coverage, as was Ophelia. On that occasion, as appears to be happening again with Ophelia, the thousands of homes and business with electricity cut off, mostly by trees falling onto power lines, had power restored within a few days at the latest by teams of engineers and electricians working day and night. Meanwhile, as is happening again now after Ophelia, a massive amount of work went on all over the country to clear fallen trees from roads and secure wind-damaged buildings.
Here in Ireland, hype linking Ophelia to climate change is not so noticeable as you suggest in your article. We just clean up as quickly as possible and get back to work and school, mourning those died in accidents but at the same time quietly thanking God it wasn’t worse. In short we’re fairly used to winter storms…..
ESB claims to have reconnected about 70% of those affected by power failures, leaving something 90k peeps w/o power.
Fair play fellas. Keep it up.
Many foreign crews from UK and France arriving.