Post-Tropical storm Ophelia hits Ireland

As I mentioned a couple days ago, what used to be Hurricane Ophelia would likely hit Ireland as an post-tropical system. That happened today, with the storm at tropical storm strength.

There’s the usual caterwauling among climate alarmists that this storm has set “unprecedented” records, mainly because it was the 10th named Atlantic Hurricane this year. But, as I pointed out, this happened three times before, over 100 years ago. Those who’d like to pin Ophelia being the 10th named storm this year on “climate change” would have to explain why the same thing happened three times within a space of a few years over 100 years ago, when the planet was cooler. From NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER:

NASA sees Hurricane Ophelia lashing Ireland

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided a thermal view of the clouds in hurricane Ophelia as it lashed Ireland. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission core satellite provided a look at the rainfall that was affecting the Emerald Isle.

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite took this thermal image of Hurricane Ophelia over Ireland on Oct. 16 at 02:54 UTC (Oct. 15 at 10:54 p.m. EDT). Credits: NOAA/NASA Goddard Rapid Response Team

The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core observatory passed directly above Hurricane Ophelia on October 14, 2017 at 12:56 p.m. EDT (1656 UTC) when it was a powerful category three on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale with sustained winds of close to 115 mph (100 knots).

GPM’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments collected data showing the locations of extremely heavy rainfall with [sic] within the hurricane. GPM’s radar unveiled intense downpours in the northeastern side of Ophelia’s eye wall that were dropping rain at the extreme rate of over 8.4 inches (213 mm) per hour. GPM saw rainfall in other intense feeder bands producing rain at a rate of over 3.9 mm [sic] inches (100 mm) per hour.

ophelia-suomi

GPM core observatory passed directly above Hurricane Ophelia on Oct. 14 at 12:56 p.m. EDT (1656 UTC) GPM’s radar unveiled intense downpours in the northeastern side of Ophelia’s eye wall that were dropping rain at the extreme rate of over 8.4 inches (213 mm) per hour. GPM saw rainfall in other intense feeder bands producing rain at a rate of over 3.9 mm (100 mm) per hour. Credits: NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce

At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, a 3-D animation revealed the height of precipitation within hurricane Ophelia. The animation was produced by combining data from GPM’s radar (DPR Ku band) with heights of cloud tops based on GOES-EAST satellite image temperatures.

The National Hurricane Center said that that the rainfall GPM observed would be affecting Ireland. Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

The 3-D animation showed storm tops in the northeastern side of Ophelia’s eye wall (bright yellow) were shown by GPM’s radar reaching heights of above 7.6 miles (12.4 km). The structure of hurricane Ophelia’s eye wall is clearly shown with this close-up virtual flyby above the center of the tropical cyclone. GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

On Sunday, Oct. 14 at 11 p.m. EDT/AST, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia. The storm had transitioned from a hurricane to a post- tropical cyclone and was centered about 220 miles (355 km) southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland near 49.2 degrees north latitude and 13.3 degrees west longitude.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph (70 kph). On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday, Oct. 16 and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph (140 kph) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western Norway by Tuesday night, Oct. 17. The estimated minimum central pressure was 969 millibars.

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite measured temperatures of Ophelia’s cloud tops as it passed overhead early on Oct. 16. The VIIRS instrument aboard captured a thermal image of Hurricane Ophelia over Ireland on Oct. 16 at 02:54 UTC (Oct. 15 at 10:54 p.m. EDT). Coldest cloud tops appeared northwest of the center, showing that the upper level of Ophelia was pushed from wind shear.

NHC forecaster Berg said “the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia’s center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal.”

On Oct. 16, the U.K. Met Service Chief Forecaster Paul Gundersen said that Ophelia weakened on Sunday night and was no longer classified as a hurricane. However, the UK Met Service expects hurricane force winds of up to 80 mph across Northern Ireland, and some areas bordering the Irish Sea.

###

National Severe Weather Warnings are in place for Northern Ireland, and other western and northern parts of Britain for Oct, 16, Monday afternoon and evening. For updated forecasts and warnings, visit: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk.


This image from earth.nullschool.net shows post tropical system hitting the northernmost part of Scotland as of this writing.

Wind vectors – Ireland and UK

The NOAA National Hurricane Center is no longer tracking the remnants of Ophelia.

However, the UK Met Office issued a statement:

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia will bring stormy conditions to western parts of the UK today (Monday 16 October).

Although this ex-hurricane will bring impactful weather to many northern and western parts of the UK, the forecast for other areas – such as South East England – is for warm and mainly dry conditions to dominate.

Met Office Chief Forecaster Paul Gundersen said: “Ophelia weakened on Sunday night and is now no longer classified as a hurricane. That said, storm force to hurricane force winds of up to 80mph across Northern Ireland, and some areas bordering the Irish Sea will result in travel disruption, power cuts and some damage to buildings such as tiles being blown from roofs.

National Severe Weather Warnings are in place for Northern Ireland, and other western and northern parts of Britain for Monday afternoon and evening and everyone in these areas should prepare for longer travel journeys and ensure they take the necessary precautions to ensure they and their families and property are safe.”

The rest of the UK will have a windy day, but wind gusts are not expected to bring widespread disruption.

more here


Note: there are two typos in the NASA press release indicated bi [sic} and strikethroughs. H/T to reader David Burton.

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149 thoughts on “Post-Tropical storm Ophelia hits Ireland

  1. “To me the converging objects of the universe perpetually flow, All are written to me, and I must get what the writing means.”

    –from “Leaves of Grass” (1855) by Walt Whitman

  2. There are a fair number of regulars on this site from the UK (this is the wrong time of night, I think for many to be online, though) and I wonder just how common this sort of storm is in Britain/Ireland.

    • I don’t recall many wind storms when I lived in Waterford, but plenty of rain. Lots and lots of it. Sometimes months and months of drizzle. There is a beach south of Waterford that used to have a wrecked ship on the shore, must have been a fairly big storm surge as the ship was quite a way up the beach from the water line. There are many wrecks off the west coast so storms are a regular feature of the climate there.

      • I had a roommate/friend in Galway from An Rinn, in Waterford. Lovely county…had some great weekends there.

      • I was thinking along the same lines, Patrick…

        Oh, Ophelia is going to rain in Ireland.
        How will they ever know the difference?

        Now, poets and authors can again describe the wild wind lashing the coast of Ireland.

      • Last comparable storm was the 1986 storm which hit SW England. It is reckonned to have knocked over about 1/3 of trees in England, including four of the multi-centennial oak trees which gave the name to the town of Seven Oaks in Kent.

      • Greg

        From memory, it was 1987, and it was SE England which was badly hit which is where Sevenoaks is. I think 1/3 of trees knocked over is an urban myth.

      • October 16 1987.
        I was in Liverpool – at college – as a mature student.
        I switched on my radio at 0600 [still BST] – and heard
        “This is the Emergency Service of the BBC”.
        That woke me up properly, I can tell you!

        Nukes?
        Stock market crash?
        [No. That was the following Monday – ‘Meltdown Monday’ after ‘Hurricane Friday’!]
        Botulism in the water?

        None of the above – but a huge storm – probably the worst to hit Southern England since 1703 they say!
        But be aware that some statistics may be a little biased towards – or away from – records!

        Breezy in Liverpool. A neighbour had their dustbin knocked over, I believe.
        Spray on the Pierhead. Where the ‘Ferry Cross the Mersey’ leaves from!

        But the Southeast had a pretty fair drubbing.
        With most of the leaves still on the trees, there was a lot of damage to our natural arboriculture.
        Also, sadly,.18 deaths.
        Another storm, three years later – again with a stinger – swept through parts of Scotland.
        The ‘Burns Day Storm’
        See – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns%27_Day_Storm
        That quotes a much higher death toll – in and outwith the UK – than the Great Storm of 1987, but highlights that the Burns Storm hit ‘during the day’.

        Auto
        How I survive the warmth – today 17 centigrade – the Winds – yesterday we had 35 knots – of UK Weather (If I listened to the ca£amitou$ cata$trophi$t$), i have £itt£e idea!

    • Some pretty bad winter storms routinely hit the west coast. I lived in Spiddal in the County Galway and remember fields and carparks (lots) being filled with 2-3 feet of water across the road that separated the ocean from the hotel where I worked. The lot was at least 30-40 meters from the usual water level at high tide. And that was on Galway Bay! Árrann (the Islands off the coast) take the full brunt of Atlantic fury in winter. On Inis Mór, which is the largest of the three islands, there are massive rocks that litter fields and these rocks, in some places, are hurled 80 feet up and then several (even a couple/few dozen) feet back from the edge by Atlantic storms. And these are gigantic rocks, some of which would have to weigh up to (or close to) a ton. Because they are limestone, the islands each are a bit smaller following each such storm. Eventually, the Atlantic will consume them…but not from a rise in water levels (other than the rise that comes with gale-force winds pushing might waves!)

    • Scotland usually gets 2 or 3 winter storms with wind gusts up to 140 mph especially in the western isles, the further S & E you go the less prepared the natives are ( Southern softies), The west coast of Ireland has the reputation of being wet and windy, so should have seen similar. the most prolonged misery today was from the southeast quadrant of the storm with strong winds affectibg the Irish sea, that is the S & E coast of Ireland and the west coast of Britain from Lands end to Galloway which had storm force winds for over 12 hours

      • madmikedavies

        I lived on the West Coast of Scotland from 1966 to 1988. I never experienced a storm with winds of 140mph and only recall 2 bad storms with winds around 70-80mph. The Western Isles may get a few more storms but not two every winter and not 140mph.

        I now live in SE England and they are no less prepared for storms than anywhere else in the UK, there is just more property and infrastructure to be damaged.

      • Do you mean 140 KM/hr (87 mph) perhaps? That seems more likely. 140 mph would be Category Four hurricane force and worthy of notice.

    • Tom,

      There was a worse one in 1987. Although I admit sleeping through it, it toppled some mighty trees.

      I gather there was an even worse one called Debbie in 1961.

      Not commen, but not unprecedented by any stretch of the imagination except thermaggedonists ones.

      • I grew up in SW Scotland (in a house now surrounded by wind turbines) but had moved to SE England in time for the ‘Great Storm of October 1987’. My recollection is that the winds were not exceptional compared to what I was used to in Ayrshire, but they caused far more damage due to the much larger number of trees, many of them close to buildings, and less stringent building regulations regarding roof construction.

      • Gavin,

        I’m not aware of any difference in building regulations across the UK relative to roof construction. I worked in the sign manufacturing industry and wind loadings were calculated in the same way across the country including those attached to roofs.

      • I recall that storm well. I lived in Havant, Hampshire at the time an recall stepping over fallen trees on the way to work. Michael Fish said there would be a bit of wind. I didn’t care much for the trees, I just wanted all my underwear that was ripped off the washing line and deposited in neighbours gardens back.

      • The 1987 hurricane did so much damage to trees as the trees were still in full leaf. I well remember the wind howling at the windows on one side of the house, then a lull and then they were howling on the other side.
        I had been due to travel up to London by rail the next day but couldn’t as the railway lines at Fleet were blocked by fallen trees. I went up the following Monday…the day of the great stock market crash.

    • Not ‘common’ as in a daily occurrence. But not unknown either.

      This one is remembered 30 years later as it hit the most densely populated part of UK – London and the South East.

      And for one of our TV forecasters incautious remark ‘there isn’t going to be a hurricane’ only hours before it appeared – as if from nowhere.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

      • HotScot.
        I worked in the building industry at that time. Every tile course was nailed in Scotland, only every fifth in SE England

      • Remember it well, my conservatory roof was a write off, courtesy of neighbours pine tree. Tube and trains weren’t working, drove to work to the South Bank dodging fallen trees. At around 7.30 am chain-saw crews were already clearing the Victoria Embankment. One of our large satellite dishes fixing gave way and it was laying flat on its face, two smaller were still there while the third one was found behind the building.

      • In those Cold War days, how was a nuclear submarine at depth to know that war had (or had not) broken out.

        It is said that the very final act before unilaterally firing its missiles at Moscow was to surface and try to listen to the BBC’s Radio 4 – then available worldwide on Long Wave (AM). If R4 was unavailable, it was likely London had already been obliterated.

        For several hours post the Great Storm there was no Radio 4. We may have come close to a far greater consequence than the many ancient (and not so ancient) trees knocked down….

        But I guess we’ll never know…

      • Latimer Alder

        In those Cold War days, how was a nuclear submarine at depth to know that war had (or had not) broken out.

        The British nuclear missile submarines, like the US ballistic missile submarines of that same era, unrolled and floated out a bouyant, yet very long floating radio antenna cable. Long length meant it could get a long wave radio signal, but not a very fast band rate (few letters per minutes, but very reliable) at the water’s surface. So the ballistic boats would float along at low speed listening to the slow letters coming in (coded obviously) from the various Navy radio stations. One, obviously the most important, was “surface and get a long important message on the other radio systems.” Another, most likely, was words to the effect of “LAUNCH NOW, We are about to killed back here!”

      • We had video tapes locked in a safe, that were to be fed to the rest of the ITV network and transmuted to entire country in such situation. In 1989 when the solar storm blacked out Canada’s power grid, someone said ‘we better get tapes ready just in case’ but no one that happened to be around knew the combination.

    • In 1839, pressure got down to below 920. The hurricane ripped up most of the trees. The price of wood collapsed over night. I think pressure got to 950 with Ophelia.

      • How is it that people who call themselves “Climate Scientists” know so little about history, weather, and math?

      • Cobblers, define “increasingly common”. Remember 1952? No of course not, you haven’t been on the planet long enough to know what is or isn’t common. Or quantified the variability in any realistic manner from a mere handful of diverse weather events. What is common is an ageing, crumbling and badly overloaded infrastructure. Much of it constructed in Victorian times. Needs more civil engineers. Less pontificating politicians, hand wringing bureaucrats and organ grinder NGO monkeys fresh off the indoctrination merry-go-round in cloud cuckoo land.

  3. Winston Graham’s Poldark series set in Cornwall in the Georgian era between 1780s and 1820s often mention horrendous storms on the west coast. I suspect they were pretty regular occurrences in them days.

    • As did the years of the little Ice Age. With it’s onset came storm that literally covered entire village with sand! The book by Brian Fagan details a few of them.

    • Even the Azores Image is only indicating rainfall at about 80mm/hr in the northern eyewall and not the reported 213 mm/hr

      • The 213 mm/hr sounds to me that it’s in a small concentration of intense rain. As for the Azores Image, what is this? From a radar far away enough to not see below perhaps the 700 millibar level, which is often where a lot of water vapor condenses into precipitation? Also, I have found radar indications of precipitation intensity and precipitation accumulation to be inaccurate, with the weather radars in my area often disagreeing with each other apparently due to hasty calibration of radar precipitation products, and there is the matter of precipitation particle size affecting radar-indicated precipitation intensity so a typical size of precipitation particles for a given radar echo intensity is assumed for radar-indicated precipitation intensity. Smaller precipitation particles have smaller radar reflection to a great extent that outweighs their slower falling speed and greater number when a given precipitation intensity is achieved with smaller precipitation particles. In the opposite direction, extremely intense radar echoes in severe thunderstorms beyond the intensity typically indicated with red or sometimes reddish magenta (such as black, purple or white depending on the source of the interpreted radar product) usually indicate presence of hail larger than larger raindrops.

        Then again, the 213 mm/hour satellite indication could have an issue or two, but that intensity of rainfall – even in the usual event it can be sustained for at most a few minutes – is .14 inch per minute, which I see as being merely something I see every few or several years in the Philadelphia area when a somewhat especially intense soggy thunderstorm for Philadelphia has me in the couple-few square km of its heaviest rain.

  4. I spent a good part of the 1990s living in the western part of the County Galway, where the Irish language is still spoken. While there, I was fortunate to know and speak with many elderly people who were actual living repositories of history (and mighty story tellers!). One of the most widely remembered articles of Irish weather history occurred in January of 1839 – Oíche na Gaoithe Móire (link below for the interested)- “The Night of the Big Winds.” It was a legendary, hurricane strength storm that impacted the whole Island country. There was another of note aound 1808 and of course in 1961, Hurricane Debbie (I believe it was named) hit Ireland and killed over 100 people. As usual, the semantic value of the word “unprecedented” has been stretched beyond recognition by ignorami; those who write or “report” professionally, but are incapable of turning up even the most basic history on these topic, in their research. Displays of such ignorance don’t even produce embarrassment or shame anymore…and mór’s the pity for it. Eejits.
    http://www.irishcultureandcustoms.com/ACalend/BigWind.html

      • I wonder how many were missed before the days of weather radar. There have been three additional years where this has happened and at least two of those were in that period (before radar). Just how may more happened then that were too far out to be noticed? And the really big question: What was the cause of those powerfully active storm years all those years ago (like in the 1890s)? This too is important, is it not?

  5. The system moved further west than they were predicting and here (in Warrington) it was windy but not alarmingly so. One of the reasons there was a big rumpus about it was because it was the same date as a massive storm (not ex tropical) 30 years ago, which was a major event especially as it flattened many old trees in the south of the UK. It was forever rehashed because the night before the storm one of our weather presenters said that a viewer had heard a hurricane was on the way and that while very windy she shouldn’t worry. The damage to mature trees was exceptional and the images were iconic. Sadly some of the deaths attributed to that storm and 1 death from this one were due to chainsaw accidents with inexperienced people clearing fallen trees.

    The further north and west you go, the more experience the people and nature is with high wind. If this hadn’t been an ex hurricane, it wouldn’t have been that unusual. Curiously there wasn’t a lot of rain with this and outside of Ireland it’s been mostly sunny. There was a few hours of orange clouds, where dust from Africa and fires in Portugal contributed smoke to the air and most of the talk has been about that. It’s also very warm as the storm has dragged warm air with it. I don’t know what it felt like in Ireland and some of the exposed coastal areas but it would barely make my top 50 windy days.

    One thing occurs to me – we’ve never recorded what the end of a millennial warming rise looks like, let alone a cooling phase. I suspect we haven’t seen a fraction of what normal climate can do.

    • Yes, the guy Co Limerick got hit by second falling tree and fell onto his chainsaw. A horrific accident. But then you’d have to be a bit stupid to try to clear a fallen DURING a severe storm ( unless you were trying to save a life of a trapped person ).

      Tragic, all the same.

  6. As sad as it is, GAIA is lashing her religious warmunista cult following. Payback for weather cooking the climate !

    • Yes here in the east of Scotland, it was practically dark at 1400 hours. This was due to smoke from the wild fires in Portugal and sand from the Sahara reaching this far north, sucked up the this storm. Eerie and in past times would require some witch burning – I wonder if we could invent a new methodological term. As the good lady is over here what about the Hillary Effect.
      Btw where I come from in Co Galway when one of these storms hits, we take the washing in.
      In Florida they evacuate the state.

      • waterside4

        Perhaps Hilary is the witch!

        Anyone else think it’s more than just a coincidence the storm hit when she’s here?

        :)

      • “Btw where I come from in Co Galway when one of these storms hits, we take the washing in.
        In Florida they evacuate the state.”

        Not fair, waterside4! When you walk off the beach in Galway, you are already at a higher elevation than most of the coastal counties in Florida. You can hide from the wind, but you must flee from the water. Storm surge flooding is not a factor along the steep shores of Galway, but can be a huge and deadly problem in flat Florida.

  7. Post-Tropical storm Ophelia hits Ireland

    Anthony, IFAIK this was never a tropical storm , it formed in mid-Atlantic. So I don’t see how it can now be a “post-tropical” storm. Some media reports are referring to it as “ex-hurricane” Ophelia, though I don’t think that is a recognised meteorological term.

    It is now just storm Ophelia.

    It seems that you are using terminology which would apply to US storms which is not appropriate to this storm. As the site of a professional weatherman, it would be good to have technical accuracy.

    Maybe you could check and amend a necessary.

    • here’s the terminology:

      A post-tropical cyclone is a former tropical cyclone. Two classes of post-tropical cyclones are: Extratropical cyclone, which is frontal, sometimes still retains winds of hurricane or tropical storm force. Remnant low, which is non-frontal, has maximum sustained winds of less than 34 knots.

      Technically, I should have called it a “cyclone” however, NHC was saying on it’s very last update that it still contained tropical storm force winds, and that stuck in my mind.

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205031.shtml?tswind120

      Note the last line of this definition:

      cy·clone
      ˈsīˌklōn/Submit
      noun METEOROLOGY
      a system of winds rotating inward to an area of low atmospheric pressure, with a counterclockwise (northern hemisphere) or clockwise (southern hemisphere) circulation; a depression.
      another term for tropical storm.

    • Greg: “this was never a tropical storm , it formed in mid-Atlantic”: The definition of a tropical storm is one of storm mechanics and structure and wind speed, not the latitude where it forms. Although there seems to be a bias against calling such a storm a tropical one if it forms north of the polar front over water cooler than 26 degrees C in an area where there is not a meteorological agency with official responsibility for tracking tropical cyclones, like in the Mediterranean Sea.

    • The word ‘tropical’ in ‘tropical storm’ does not refer to the latitude at which it formed, but the process which generated the low pressure. Tropical cyclones are warm core low pressure systems, powered almost exclusively by the heat of condensation. Ophelia formed pretty far to the north (39.9 N), but was determined to be a warm core system and not powered by any baroclinic process. So it was deemed a tropical storm, and eventually, a hurricane.

      The structure of a tropical cyclone is also different from your typical mid-latitude low pressure system. A tropical system not only has a warm core, but is usually more concentrated, with the most intense wind and rain near the center of low pressure. Mid-latitude lows are cold core systems and generally have a larger wind and rain field. The most intense weather is some distance from the center of low pressure, usually along frontal boundaries that can easily extend over 1,000 miles from the low itself.

      Of course, there are times when low pressure forms with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, making it a bit of a judgement call. Over the last 40 years, I believe there has been a trend towards calling these systems ‘tropical’ more often than not, but Ophelia is not in that category. She was definitely tropical from the beginning.

  8. Guardian:

    Power cuts continued throughout the day and by mid-afternoon, 360,000 customers were without electricity. The Irish Republic’s Electricity Supply Board warned of further outages throughout the night.

    This is Ireland, so it could be quite some time before they get things fixed. Nothing moves quickly in Ireland.

    I know someone in Co. Limerick who was told it “could be ten days” to get the power back on. Luckily he has stock of wood and some candles, and battery powered radio to keep him entertained !

    • Actually Greg it’s the other way around. Due to the careless management of the distribution grids in the UK after privatisation, their storm performance went from bad to worse with customer supplies in some cases not being restored for up to 2 weeks. There was even a parliamentary investigation into it. Frequently, ESB was asked to send many network technicians over to the UK to assist in restoring their networks after storms. I don’t recall the opposite being the case – ever.

      • PM May has offered help but the Irish asking Britain for help may be more than they can stomach. They’d rather stay in the dark.

        You are probably right that ESB is getting people to expect the worst and hoping they can do better than the worst.

        We will see tomorrow if the lights are back on but I doubt it.

    • btw the ‘ten days’ is nonsense. This is done simply to manage expectations. If you say 10 days and get supplies back in 2 days you’re a hero. If you say a day and it takes you 2 days you’re the pits. ESB staff aren’t stupid and know well how to treat their customers and manage their expectations. As they are quite uncertain given the scale of outages they are just playing it safe. There may be a handful of customers (long single-customer remote feeders) who will take a couple of days but 90% of all out now will be back today or tomorrow.

  9. On the other side of the storm, extreme hot air was blown in, including sand from the Sahara, 3,000 km away. We had two successive record hot days now since the measurements were kept in 1901 at Ukkel, Belgium, about 10ºC above the average for this month.
    Although not directly linked to “global warming”, one of the weathermen warned that this could happen more frequently in the future…

    Hope everybody gets well in Ireland and Scotland, without much damage…

  10. The luck of the Irish applies here, how lucky they are that Ireland is small, unlike the UK they don’t have well-funded academics that do very nicely thank you out of writing papers that insinuate that the country can live off wind power. The Irish know that high pressure systems can kill their entire wind fleet, now they know that the same can happen with strong storms.

    • climanrecon

      Where in Ireland are you specifically referring to? The Republic, or Northern Ireland which is still part of the UK. Both have excellent Universities.

      And whilst I hate using Wikipedia, sometimes it’s useful for illustration:

      “As of 2017, the Republic of Ireland has 2,878 MegaWatts (3,916 MW all-island) of installed wind power nameplate capacity, and 1 MW of solar power.

      In 2015 wind turbines generated 23% of Ireland’s average electricity demand, one of the highest electric grid penetration values in the world. Ireland’s 226 wind farms (276 all-island), are almost exclusively onshore, with only the 25MW Arklow Bank Wind Park situated offshore as of 2017.”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland

      They too are consumed by the madness.

      • Yes, they have embraced wind power big time, but Eirgrid knows that they must maintain almost their entire conventional generation capacity. Not sure how much the average bill payer knows about that.

    • I live in the north east UK. I am getting increasingly depressed at the alarmism over every single weather event. After telling us for years that local weather is not relevant to climate change, it is surprising how often the alarmists use localised weather events to support their CAGW myth.

      There are very good reasons that trees shed their leaves at this time of year, one of them being that we are entering a perfectly normal storm season that has happened every year in autumn since I was a child.

      My workshop roof was torn off in a severe storm in November two years ago that went largely unreported because it only affected the north east. Similarly we have had major flood events from storm surges during easterly weather systems at this time of year that also go unreported. The UK media is largely London-centric or south-centric and they rarely report on weather events (or anything else for that matter) in the north of England. We had -20c and 3 feet of snow here in 2010 and life carried on as usual but the media reported it as the county grinding to a halt because idiots in London and the south were incapable of coping with the 3″ they got down south.

      Yesterdays storm was grossly exaggerated. It was nowhere near the scale of storm that hit us in 1987. I was actually driving during the 87 storm and it was extremely frightening, with entire woodlands being flattened before my eyes. It took my father and I some 6 hours to get home (10 miles) due to having to cut our way through dozens of fallen trees. I was also out driving yesterday (through the centre of the met office yellow warning) at the height of the storm and quite honestly it was like a light breeze in comparison to many storms we’ve had where I live over the last 15 years I’ve been up here. Even during my previous 40 years living in both the south and west of the country I have experienced numerous storms in autumn/winter, many severe. It is perfectly normal for this time of year IMHO.

    • It was the Met office ‘Amber Warning’ (:-))

      A low sun refracting through a mix of dust from North Africa & smoke from Portugal’s Forrest fires. not enough rain to wash it out of atmosphere before it got to UK.

    • Currently, the clock tower known as Big Ben is shrouded in scaffolding, so this photograph was not taken today.

      • Mr. Taylor, I assume you are not English,
        This is not photograph of the Elizabeth Tower (with Big Ben clock) it is photo of the Victoria tower, and yes photo was taken yesterday as you can see here

      • To clear confusion, there are two towers Victoria (south) and Elizabeth (north). The Elizabeth tower has a well known large clock and a rather loud bell which was originally named ‘Big Ben’

  11. So far, in Ireland; 3 people killed by trees (2 in cars hit by trees, 1 by chainsaw).
    A lot of tree & roof damage, power & water cuts.
    Ferries between Holyhead and Dublin have been cancelled.

    Here in North Wales, the other side of Irish Sea (& ~120 miles from storm track) we had sustained winds of 50 to 60mph with highest gust of 90 at Aberdaron .
    At around 16:30 we had one of 82 followed by a (short) power cut, so jumped in car & went to Treadour Bay to witness 30ft waves smashing into the rocks; air filled with salt spray & foam (up to a mile inland). Very warm 20°C. (10°C above normal)

    Travelers were left stranded as flights, trains, ferries were cancelled and bridges were shut.

    All now getting back to normal, 9°C, wind down to 23mph sea still confused with 15ft swell, blue sky & sun just putting his hat on.

  12. never really had any effect at all in SE England
    nothing like 30 years ago

    sunny and 12 C with a 12mph SW wind

    yesterday was 23C!!! skies looked like strong milky coffee

    but it passed us by

  13. I’m in Pembrokeshire South West Wales and we had it pretty blowy for a couple of hours when power went down for a while. I had a fence blow down (it was on borrowed time if I’m honest) but the patio table and chairs are still in place. We get these winds fairly often.

  14. Growing up in Dublin in the 80s I remember going to school and the winds so strong you could not breathe if you were walking into the wind.

    We had a similar storm 60 years ago, when the world was in a cooling trend too.

    Claiming weird rainfall is the new lie by the usual suspects.

    My mother (late 60s) is currently holidaying on the east coast, staying in a mobile home, and she calls it a bit of weather, and NASA NOAA and all of the king’s scientists are trying to claim doom. That tells you all you need to know

  15. My records for the Northwich area of UK (20miles west of Manchester Airport) show a peak gust of 32km/h at 8 pm yesterday. Apparently fiights were cancelled at the airport earlier in the day in anticipation of this disruption. We sustained damage to a tree when a small branch was brought down. It is good to see the fabled resilience of the British in times of such adversity./sarc

  16. Here on the exposed western edge of Gwynedd in North Wales it has been and gone. Peak gusts of 90mph recorded yesterday at Aberdaron (1500hr GMT) and Capel Curig (1600hr GMT) with gusts peaking over 80mph for 6 continuous hours at both. At Valley on the nearby island of Anglesey gusts peaked at 81mph (1500hr GMT) with gusts over 70mph for 7 continuous hours. Numbers from the Met Office before they get ‘quality controlled’. The wind was warm and mostly from due south and it did bring a lot of Sahara sand and probably some contaminated air from the forest fires in Portugal as there was a slight smell of burning on the air.

    I’ve known worse storms here and today is just another day…

  17. My wife has relatives in Kerry – so has been concerned for their welfare…

    In the meantime – as we now live on the south coast of England – I ate my lunch in the garden under a parasol with the temperature about 70F and no wind…… before the sky went beige and the sun turned red…..

  18. I live (obviously) on the east coast of England and without any great effort can find evidence of severe storms, gales is a frequently used description, in the North Sea way back:
    3 March 1877 thirty six vessels lost with 215 men and boys (boys were often employed on traditional fishing smacks and trawlers) drowned leaving 164 orphans.
    Worse was a terrible storm in October 1880 given as force 11 and described as a “nor’easter”.
    In March 1833 there was an even worse storm in which 255 souls were lost.
    In 1894 a huge gale from the SSW raged for four days from 10 to 14 Nov taking 20 lives. That year also saw a huge blizzard on 22 December from the WNW in a year that was notably bad for terrible weather.
    These storms caused terrible loss of life among people earning their living from the sea and more than capable of dealing with most of the conditions the North Sea could produce, not landlubbers straying into an environment that they were not trained to deal with.

    A particular irony watching the BBC news hysteria yesterday was a reporter in Ireland trying to hype up what could only be described as a gusty scene behind him while in the sea someone was swimming (really not a great idea as it was rough but hugely deflating and amusing to the reporter’s attempt to describe the end of the world as we know it).

    What I have not witnessed since I was a very small boy living in Broadstairs on the Kent coast of the the English Channel is a colossal thunderstorm that lasted all night with continuous thunderclaps and sheet lightning. It was an extraordinary storm, even allowing for my impressionability at that age. I was going to speculate about whether thunderstorms of this type have got less frequent, but it is only an anecdotal thought and only likely to set some fool off on a biggest change ever.

    • I have speculated about the number of thunderstorms in the UK. It has seemed to me that there have been fewer and less fierce ones in recent years. I haven’t actually kept a written recrd, regrettably, but I remember ferocious storms in the summer in England when I was a child but there were markedly fewer during our years back there this century. It will be interesting to see if they increase again.

  19. It wasn’t an exceptional storm in any respect – wind or rain, we get storms that give 90/100+ gusts on headlands and hills all the time.

    By chance it arrived 30 years to the day after ‘the great storm’ of 1987 – which hit different areas – more England/Europe – but was far worse with massive widespread damage, millions of mature trees felled, 120mph gusts in England, higher elsewhere, and multiple deaths.

    In fact TV programs gave more time to the anniversary of the great storm than the current one in the UK!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

      • TTY – thank you, a really useful link. The plot diagram is particularly devastating to the usual “never seen before weather” brigade and the useful reminder that it was only after the 1880s that reliable measurement of wind speeds/severity really began.
        I remain deeply sceptical about claims of unprecedented weather/climate events this last 50 years and this includes claims of unprecedented heat as well as cold.

  20. The sky turned Martian red in London yesterday… lights came on by 3pm.

    Definitely weird (saharan dust/smoke from Portugal dragged in by storm to west)

  21. I have completed an analysis of observations from bouys and weather reporting stations in Ireland during Ophelia. Highest sustained wind and gust was at Roches Point (Lighthouse), just south of Cork at 60/84 Kts.

    The storm hit land at Valentia with a low pressure of 962 mb.

    More info at http://www.weatherblog.uk/blog

  22. I’m out and about today and I’ve seen far greater damage from storms in the past. I’m well away from the coast, so didn’t get the worst of it. Average storm locally. I think the thing was, it tracked over the whole country.
    The media had a field day!!
    In the early 1800’s there was a storm known as “the night of the big wind” 25% of buildings in Dublin were damaged.
    Now that was a storm.

  23. No more leaves fallen off the tees than any other day this last week

    Do we remember remember September, you know, that *REALLY* hot one we’ve all just been through – the one that really proves Global Gas Warming Catastrophe blah blah blah Theory.
    Yeah you got it, *that* one.

    Does this pic show up: https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/september_2017_map.png?w=1440&h=892

    It kinda intimates that this storm started over ‘ordinary’ water, ran over a bit of slightly warm then went over some cooler than normal as it got near Ireland.

    Remind me about how ‘warm water triggers hurricanes’……………….

    Going back to Houston Harvey and all the rain that landed on hot, heavenly, hapless and harried by hurricanes Houston.
    I recall the BBC Climate Muppet, whatever his name these days, was blaming all the rain on the Cassius Clapron Castuis Iron Effect (warm air and extra moisture, something ‘clever’ that warmists use to exaggerate the size of their willies. Not difficult for them)

    Excel is great innit because it works out things.
    So, does 27degC give you, in a typical Houston Hurricane what, say 15 inches of rain? That’s a big dump.
    Excel tells me that if the BBC Climate Muppet was correct, the air temperature over Houston must have been 67 degC
    Was that the case because if not it renders his willy even smaller that Korean Kim’s, but at least the fat little piglet Kim can blame rampant diabetes for the damn-near invisibility of his member.

    • “It kinda intimates that this storm started over ‘ordinary’ water, ran over a bit of slightly warm then went over some cooler than normal as it got near Ireland.

      Remind me about how ‘warm water triggers hurricanes’……………….”

      It does, and did for Ophelia.
      (they need other things tho, like no wind shear aloft and no dry zone in the mid-trop).
      It formed S of the Azores in a region where SSTs where in the region of 27/28C (a +2C anomaly BTW). It was advected north over cooler waters and transition into a post-tropical storm driven by cold air entering its circulation.

      “Excel tells me that if the BBC Climate Muppet was correct, the air temperature over Houston must have been 67 degC”

      I helps if you know what you’re talking about.
      The term “muppet” is most apt with you my friend.
      The Clausius Clapeyron relation does indeed show that a vast amount of energy is released by condensation of ocean surface evaporated WV higher in the Troposphere that falls as rain. Houston had the rain it had because that process continued for some days.
      It’s called advection and is a common cause of high rainfall events, where systems become ‘stuck’.

      • temp difference, not absolute temps.. the absolute temp claim is a fallacy and shown to be ridiculous claims, in the historical record

  24. What is this “ex-hurricane” thing? New climate change lingo to maximize effect? Former hurricanes are called tropical storms/depressions.

    • Look up the Monty Python sketch .. you know, the ‘parrot’ one.
      But suffice because it was once a hurricane and is no more.
      For the sensationalist press who would dearly love to call it still a hurricane.

      • The dead parrot is like the missing heat during the hideatus. It’s not dead, just hiding that’s all.

  25. Fast forward to Ireland in 2020 (sorry I’m not fluent with the local colloquialisms):

    Daughter: The wind just blew the trash can lid off
    Mom: That was ex-hurricane Ophelia
    D: Ophelia was 3 years ago…
    M: Hurricanes never die
    D: How do you know it wasn’t another ex-hurricane
    M: You have a good mind that asks questions. You should study to be a scientist
    D: A climate scientist?
    M: Uh, no. You ask too many questions.

    • Give it up Griff, I too can bore you with numerous papers saying the opposite – that are less selective/dishonest with the evidence!

    • UK reporting records go back around 250 years and there are hundreds of reports of weather far worse than what we see today, floooding far worse before urbanisation too.

      unless you think weather started in 1988 that is, you are having a laugh, UK flooding is weak compared to centuries gone by

  26. Latimer Alder: How to be spectacularly wrong:

    In an infamous weather broadcast in October 1987 Michael Fish wrongly denied claims a hurricane was going to hit Britain.
    Hours after he said there was no hurricane coming “but it will be very windy in Spain” there was devastation across the UK that claimed 18 lives.
    During the segment, he said: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”
    By coincidence, like Annie (comment just above yours) I was also asleep in Fleet, Hampshire. My sister woke me saying the power is all out and we should go into the town center to see if we could get breakfast.
    I had slept through the whole thing and it was quite surreal walking into the center of town having to go round fallen trees, many very large old trees and their resting places were cars, garden sheds, garages and for the most unfortunate – right onto their homes.
    But (though I was now in Australia) did the UK not get hit with similar storms for 2-3 years – being dubbed ‘killer-storms’?

    • “In an infamous weather broadcast in October 1987 Michael Fish wrongly denied claims a hurricane was going to hit Britain.”

      No he didn’t…. he was refering to a Carribean hurricane, and they don’t occur outside of the Maritime Tropics.
      The day SSTs around the UK are ~27C then we truely would have ‘warmed’.
      What hit was a mid-latitude depression.

      “Hours after he said there was no hurricane coming “but it will be very windy in Spain” there was devastation across the UK that claimed 18 lives.”

      He actually said “Spain into France”.
      I watched the forecasts that week (working as a meteorologist at an RAF base in Lincolnshire) leading up to the day and it was always going to be v windy just over the Channel.
      It is also commonly thought that the lack of warnings saved lives as few people were about (happened overnight) trying to mitigate its effects.

      What was missed, because of a dearth of observatons back then in Biscay, was a ‘jet streak’ that caused explosive cyclogenesis of the wave depression and turned it left.

      The national press of course made a big thing of it (they live in the SE/London area).

  27. The three years with 10 named hurricanes over 100 years ago; of course that was pre satellite. At that time, a storm like Ophelia would not have been labeled as a hurricane.

  28. It should be noted that the Irish Meteorological Service classified Ophelia as a Storm when it hit Ireland, On the subject of those people who believe that this activity indicates pending climatic disaster and despite such activity having occurred in the past (e.g. late 19th century) these people still persist in the extraordinary belief that mankind is responsible. In my view unfortunately this belief will be almost impossible to shake and can only be likened to religious fundamentalism and consequently nigh on impossible to shift.

    This held belief will continue to make it harder to get people to open their minds to logical and objective thinking in the climate change debate. I fear therefore that governments and those in control will just perpetuate this belief as it appeases the majority of electors. This is sad when one considers the billions that is being, and will undoubtedly continue to be, spent in pursuit of “solutions” to attempt to control the climate.

    • Yes. Ireland was not hit by a Hurricane landfall, and any claims to the contrary are patently false

    • Good points Patrick – from your namesake.

      As a large majority of the Irish population are still practising Catholics they listen to the global warming New religion coming from our crazy Pope. Just this week he stated that global warming is one of the main reasons for world famine and the new Muslim exodus.
      This despite the Sahara greening and record crop growth due to the magic gas – carbon dioxide.
      I also notice that the little sister of the Biased BBC (RTE) is going strong on the ‘possible connection’ between this wind and global warming.
      I did not notice any mention of all those useless windmills being shut down – due to too much wind!

  29. I live in Limerick in the south West of Ireland. Storm Ophelia was severe but by no means exceptional – Xmas eve storm 1998 and storm in February 2015 were far more intense and destructive. Similarly I remember a number of storms in the 1970s flattening many trees in the golf course across the road from me. Also storm Ophelia discharged hardly any rain which limited its effect, although it did a fair bit of damage to trees as many still had most of their leafs, as one would expect in mid October. The most remarkable thing about the storm, however, has been the tidal wave of hyperbole, exaggeration and false links to CAGW from the usual suspects.

  30. Our Irish Minister for Stupidity (Sorry, Climate Change!) has announced that we will get a storm like every 5-6 years from now on, “because climate”. He called for more money to combat this (what a surprise!)
    I believe it is rampant opportunism, gullibility and political pandering to the CAGW lunatic fringe.

    Of course, he could be that stupid…..

  31. Could not compare to Debbie in 1961
    Faith in 1966 went way to the north of Ireland

    In addition , extreme phase 5 MJO in october favored enhanced activity in the exact area Ophelia came out of. The reason we know that is because research from Vitart at ECMWF shows the correlation of phase 4/5 in the eastern atlantic WHICH MEANS IT HAD TO HAVE HAPPENED BEFORE if there is a correlation. Bottom line for intensity of wind, Harvey was no Carla (1961( ,and a slew of other storms in Texas ( its rain aspect was because it was caught in cold trough, the product of the phase 2 of the MJO that set off the hurricane burst) Irma was no Donna in Florida and Ophelia was no Debbie in Ireland Peace out

    • Thanks Joe,

      I went to Penn State for a year in 1962 and majored in civil engineering. I have been tracking hurricanes since the early 1950’s. After a year at Penn State I switched to commercial art and ended up at the Phila. College of Art.

      At Penn State I spent a lot of time climbing Mt Nittany and the mountains south of there, and playing the piano in the girls dorms (they all had a piano) instead of studying.
      Joe Paterno was an assistant coach when I was there at State College…just sayin…

  32. A hurricane remnant (Debbie I think) passed up the west coast of Ireland in the early 1960s
    In the last days (I think 28th) of August, 1986, the remnants of Hurricane Charley of that year, described back then by meteorologists as a ‘post-tropical cyclone’ crossed the Atlantic and then Ireland southwest to northeast, before finally dissipating to the north of Scotland, on a track very similar to that of the Ophelia. The track of Charley 1986 can easily be found in the archives of the NOAA. While there was not so much wind as with Ophelia, an extraordinary amount of rain fell in the Dublin area (which is usually drier than the West averaging about 35 inches per year) causing the worst flooding Dublin had seen for decades, and passing into local folklore simply as ‘Hurricane Charley’.
    Ophelia 2017, on the other hand, brought very (but not unprecedenedly) high winds and surprisingly little rain, as well as peculiar features such as unseasonably high temperatures and Saharan dust on its eastern margins (over Southern England)
    Ireland gets anything from 2 or 3 to 10 or 12 Atlantic storms (or ‘deep depressions’ as Met Eireann, the Irish weather service usually calls them) in a typical Autumn-Winter season. The rarer events, when hurricane remnants originating in the tropics re-constitute themselves as extratropical storms, occur every couple of decades, and seem to combine the characteristics of a strong (but typical) autumn/winter storm with some unusual features inherited from their tropical origins.
    Ophelia’s track was forecast by Met Eireann (no doubt with the assistance of information shared by weather forecasting services of other nations including the USA) with a high degree of accuracy as to track, intensity and timing of arrival, for more than 48 hours before its arrival at Ireland’s south coast on Monday morning. Met Eireann and the Irish government authorities undoubtedly helped save lives (3 lives were tragically lost in accidents, all relating to fallen trees) by issuing severe weather alerts and closing all schools, colleges and public offices in the country on Monday and by successfully urging many private businesses to do the same, in an attempt to persuade people to stay indoors during the (daytime) storm.
    The previous storm having similar intensity and destructiveness to Ophelia took place in January/February of 2012, if I remember correctly. Since it did not have prior history as a named hurricane, it was not as highly anticipated, nor given such international media coverage, as was Ophelia. On that occasion, as appears to be happening again with Ophelia, the thousands of homes and business with electricity cut off, mostly by trees falling onto power lines, had power restored within a few days at the latest by teams of engineers and electricians working day and night. Meanwhile, as is happening again now after Ophelia, a massive amount of work went on all over the country to clear fallen trees from roads and secure wind-damaged buildings.
    Here in Ireland, hype linking Ophelia to climate change is not so noticeable as you suggest in your article. We just clean up as quickly as possible and get back to work and school, mourning those died in accidents but at the same time quietly thanking God it wasn’t worse. In short we’re fairly used to winter storms…..

  33. ESB claims to have reconnected about 70% of those affected by power failures, leaving something 90k peeps w/o power.

    Fair play fellas. Keep it up.

    Many foreign crews from UK and France arriving.

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