This was the news from NSIDC on Sept 5th, 2017:
Average sea ice extent for August 2017 ended up third lowest in the satellite record. Ice loss rates through August were variable, but slower overall than in recent years. Extensive areas of low concentration ice cover (40 to 70 percent) are still present across much of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean.
Arctic sea ice extent for August 2017 averaged 5.51 million square kilometers (2.13 million square miles), the third lowest August in the 1979 to 2017 satellite record. This was 1.77 million square kilometers (683,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles) above the record low August set in 2012.
Ice retreat was most pronounced in the western Beaufort Sea. A large region in the Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea has low concentration sea ice (40 to 70 percent). Patches of low concentration sea ice and some open water northeast of the Taymyr Peninsula are also present.
While a record low minimum extent in the Arctic is unlikely this year, the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea is extremely far north. In parts of this region, the ice edge is farther north than at any time since the satellite record began in 1979. This highlights the pronounced regional variability in ice conditions from year to year. A couple of the models that contribute to the Sea Ice Prediction Network Sea Ice Outlooks forecasted significantly less ice in the Beaufort Sea in July this year compared to average conditions.
More here: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/09/the-end-of-summer-nears/
Today, here is the graph showing data to Sept 14th, 2017:
Source: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
According to the data (updated for Sept 15th) they helpfully provide in spreadsheet form, the 5 day average extent (current value being rightmost) for the last 8 9 days is as follows:
4.717, 4.696, 4.668, 4.649′ 4.649, 4.645, 4.636, 4.638, 4.649
The daily average for the last 8 9 days is (current value being rightmost):
4.635, 4.697, 4.641′ 4.628, 4.646, 4.611, 4.651, 4.651, 4.686
Source data from NSIDC: (local copy) Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v2.1.xlsx
Source data from NSIDC: (live link) ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v2.1.xlsx
It appears as if the melt season has ended, and a turn upwards has begun. Though, variable wind and weather could still force a retreat of ice extent, it certainly seems the daily extent value has started upwards.
Here’s NSIDC’s own graph with 2 standard deviations applied, it looks like 2017 is just on the edge:
Source: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
Now, let the caterwauling begin anew for the “Arctic sea ice will disappear any year now” meme.
The disappearing Arctic ice meme will eventually prove to be one of the simple things undoing CAGW. Others include the pause (with La Nina coming it will emphatically be back), the lack of accelerating SLR, the absence of the modeled tropical troposphere hotspot, survival of the Great Barrier Reef and polar bears, and renewables caused blackouts in Australia and UK. Things like temperature fudging will point to the underlying scientific misconduct.
Well. 1400 miles south of the north pole in the Edmonton area, we’ve had frost for the last two nights. Clearly climate change is on its way as winter approaches, and that’s the only climate change I’m concerned about. Gawd, I hate winter.
Regina here, Rob and I hear you. Edmonton winters can be brutal. I think a colder phase is on the way so enjoy what you have for now. Only two frosts by mid-September is actually pretty good. I’ve seen lots in late August in my 60 years.
Rob,
I live just north of you and you may want to check the distance from Edmonton to the geographic North Pole. ( at 90 degrees ). Not the North Pole in Alaska.
I did check it. because I wasn’t sure exactly what it was. However, now that you mention it, it does seem to come up a little short. The 1400 miles would be closer to the distance to the arctic circle.
parts of the west coast of scotland saw -8 in the early hours of sunday morning. a friend was at a wedding in oban and his bottles of water in the car were frozen this morning. the -8 was another friend driving home from a fishing trip ,recorded in the inverary area. there may well be warming, but it isn’t global.
They could have fixed that with a wee dram from the Oban Distillery …
I like the second diagram best because it actually shows the data for each year entire, not truncated to exclude the data when the Groke is out wandering, and ice is increasing again.
How do ice records correlate to Siemic activity in the polar regions ?
The stirring rod in the Arctic Ocean is the North Magnetic Pole. It is in the beginning process of sliding down the other side toward Siberia. We may begin to see cooler temps.
https://www.harrytodd.org
Read my theory and study the graphics. I would love or hate your opinions.
The North Magnetic Pole is moving at 55-60 km per year. 21% of the atmosphere is paramagnetic, the colder the better. Do you think this might change the climate a bit?
http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/poles/figs/pole_ns.gif
harrytod: If I read this chart correctly, sometime next year compasses at Greenwich, England, will point due north geographical and magnetic. Woo hoo.
The problem with Arctic ice cover rebounding is that it will probably motivate a re-calibration of the satellite methodology. Roy Spencer correctly predicted that the RSS satellite measurement system would be altered to show increasing temperatures.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/03/comments-on-new-rss-v4-pause-busting-global-temperature-dataset/
A decade ago, we were told that the melting ice in the Arctic was unprecedented and the Arctic would be ice free by 2014 based on the trend in melting ice.
I have a unique theory on this. Over the last decade, the Arctic has been mild during the Winters vs historical averages, which is causing less ice to accumulate but recently, very chilly during the Summers vs average, which is melting much less ice. The Arctic is like a real world laboratory. In the Summer, the sun shines and warms for 6 months and dominates temperatures. Short wave radiation from the sun is more powerful than the weaker long wave radiation, that the surface of the earth emits and cools it. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly H2O(but in the Arctic-there isn’t as much H20) so CO2 has more of an effect. C02 increasing, traps some of that weaker long wave radiation all year round but in the Winter, there is no sun to compete or offset the effects. In addition, in the Winter, we have more open waters in the Arctic(vs 20 years ago for instance), which has led to an increase in evaporation and H20, which is adding to the greenhouse effect.
So the Winters in the Arctic have been dominated by the greenhouse effect of increasing CO2 and increasing H20 and have not been as cold.
The Summers are dominated by the sun, that shines 24 hours a day, despite increased greenhouse gases(year round) that trap some of the heat because the sun’s warmth(or lack of it) is greater than the warmth held in by greenhouse gases. Arctic Summers have been cool, with less ice melt recently.
The sun, last century, and until recently had been the most active in a long time. If it was been responsible for some of the global warming of the last 100 years, it would be impossible to separate the sun’s warming from the increasing greenhouse gas warming because they were in the same direction.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth
“IF” the sun is now cooling the earth, while increasing CO2 continues to warm the planet, comparing the Arctic in the Summer to the Arctic in the Winter may help us to separate the effects.
It could be that something like more low clouds during the Arctic Summer is causing a negative feedback from the increasing H2O and of course acting like an atmospheric “blanket” in the Winter.
Regardless, a trend for recent Summers to be cool and Winters mild is indisputable. The Arctic is a place where the effects of greenhouse gases are the greatest/maximized, as well as the presence of the warming sun(from all day long to none) is amplified. The recent pattern change in this important region is telling us something.
I just updated the daily data and the graph for Sept. 15th data from NSIDC, it looks even more like the corner has been turned.
If it has been, then only three of the past ten years had higher ice, i.e. 2009, 2013 & 2014. Since 1979, Arctic sea ice has never gone five years without a new record low. Its 2012 low will remain the record indefinitely.
But it appears that the pattern for Arctic temperatures we have seen for the last several years is staring to repeat. At or below mean during the summer months and over, sometimes well over, the mean for much of the rest of the year. It appears we’re entering a La Nina and yet the pattern seems to be holding just as it has during El Nina years. Why?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png
Ice forming
“Bob boder
Ice forming”
——————————–
Yes freezing actually releases heat. And yes, though the temperature is above the mean it is still well below freezing. However that does not explain the last several years deviation from the 44 year mean shown because ice starts forming about this time of year, every year!
I am just noting that despite the obvious changes going on now globally, the pattern in the Arctic appears to be repeating and I am wondering what are the possible explanations for the fact this?
actually there is more ice formation and melt. thus lower temperatures in the melt season and higher temperatures during the freezing season.
that’s just one basic, the other is that the deepest cold spots are traveling from over land towards the pole (the arctic is actually warmer then Siberia or northern Canada due to the ocean surrounding it so weather patterns play also an important role.)
like this in december 2016 a strong blocking high over Siberia made it there record cold while the same blocking high did create an inflow that followed the gulf stream, making it record warm over the Arctic.
The jagged record that exceeds trend temperatures is indicative of an open water, marine temperature environment. There is a great deal of information in this simple graphic. The trend shows lower air temperature due to ice cover insulating the atmosphere from ocean moderation in the past. We see the Arctic cyclicality in this.
Open water is heat being released and dumped to space. Lots of it! As the ocean cools (as it is now) we have a global pause until much of the excess heat is gone. When the ocean has cooled enough it begins to see greater ice expansion and summer retention. Both of these trends are self enforcing as the extent of ice affects the action of wind and waves on the ice. Once maximum ice cover is established, water temperatures under the ice where it is insulated and protected from wind, start to rise again. But globally, this is a cold phase as the Arctic ocean releases less heat to the atmosphere.
This is a major temperature regulator for the entire planet and I don’t believe it is recognized at all.
RAH
Let us assume the “average daily temperatures” (from DMI forecasts for 80 North, or other simliar actual temperature records from 75+ deg North latitude). I’ve got my doubts – The plotted fall-winter-spring temperatures have ALWAYS been higher than “average” the past 35 years, so why should we believe the displayed “average” line is correct?
Regardless. If the recent Arctic sea ice extents have been consistently all year “below average”, then in fall-winter-spring open ocean waters are losing significant amounts of heat energy (greater evaporated water masses, greater water-to-air heat losses from LW radiation, convection and conduction) than if sea ice is present. Greater heat transfer into the same air masses flowing past mean higher air temperatures, all else being the same.
Check out others years- and you see the same many times. Look at 1972 or 1984 and even some earlier ones.
as you say there is more open water than 20 years ago at this time of year . as a result there is more initial freezing, more heat being released.
Sorry folks we have had record forest fire season here in British Columbia. That is all the proof needed to prove run away climate change. We are burning up I tell ya, I only a few years left. Oh wait a local climate scientist with his house in the forest just did some remodeling updates, what the…
Yup, sorry. Utterly predictable after the pine beetle killed millions of trees and left them as nothing but an incredibly combustible resource for any lightning hits or careless cigarettes. We are sharing your smoke further East if that is any consolation.
Fire needed to keep pests under control.
Yeah, but all that smoke kept the West cooler than it would have been under clear skies.
Filtered out sun yet higher CO2. Which variable controls temperatures. Hint: not CO2
I heard that 58 was the record, but may have been surpassed by now. Understandable since there are many many more open roads going into remote locations. More campers probably more scrub as well.
“Now, let the caterwauling begin anew for the “Arctic sea ice will disappear any year now” meme.”
People should read the ipcc reports which suggest a date out beyond 2040. If you get your science filtered through the press then you really are not getting the science. Moreover criticism of the MSM version of the science is lightweight skepticism.
Remember when skeptics went after the real science…those were the days..
People should also listen to what IPCC officials say when they are being honest.
“one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy….This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore.”
IPCC official Ottmar Edenhofer
Mosh,
These predictions aren’t from real scientists?
http://climatechangepredictions.org/categories/arctic_sea_ice
Mosh,
Did IPCC predict that Arctic sea ice extent would grow after 2012, with no new low being made after five years?
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=605
“In a more recent study, there is good agreement between Arctic sea-ice trends and those simulated by control and transient integrations from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the Hadley Centre (see Figure 16-6). Although the Hadley Centre climate model underestimates sea-ice extent and thickness, the trends of the two models are similar. Both models predict continued decreases in sea-ice thickness and extent (Vinnikov et al., 1999), so that by 2050, sea-ice extent is reduced to about 80% of area it covered at the mid-20th century.”
You are aware, are you not, that GFDL’s models fail miserably at predicting a year in advance, let alone forty years?
Climate is cyclic, not linear, as assumed in the simple-minded extrapolations of “models”.
“Out beyond 2040”,huh. How convenient. Meanwhile, back in the real world, there is simply no sign of that happening, and no reason to believe that it will.
Jon Lovitz has this covered. “Out beyond 2040? Yeah! That’s the ticket!”
Mish says…”Moreover criticism of the MSM version of the science is lightweight skepticism.”
1. There is plenty of skepticism applicable to the IPCC. You know, using activist articles to make CAGW claims. Ignoring hundreds of peer review papers critical of CAGW.
2. Failure to criticise both the “official” science and the MSM is to ignore the common political agenda infecting both.
What real science,Steven? Mann? Hansen? Jones? Fools and liars! The models? It isn’t even a theory. Just a poor and failed hypothesis with a collection of high priests and sycophants standing round begging for alms and crying, “I saw it move!, I’m sure I saw it move!”
Funny how they keep pushing that date out, year after year.
name the date beyond 2040 and we can have a bet. if we are both dead by the deadline 🙂 our kids/relatives can carry out the money, car, house transfer depending how brave you are when it comes to the stake.
Back in 96 my atmosperic Chem instructor said we have 20 years, based on the science at the time. PhD chemist. Probably still there telling the new crop of chemical engineering students the same thing.
It’s bullshit. I used to buy into this stuff as well. Don’t feel bad.
It didn’t take me as long to clue in, since I have a background in the hard sciences
Seems to be some strange post hoc editing of the “climate record” at DMI:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
It didn’t have that record low in end July and sudden icing at the beginning of August a few days ago.
Yep, don’t underestimate the resourcefullness of OSISAF which is transforming the “operational product” into a “climate data record” showing far less ice. Click the DMI chart (just above) to see the latest chart (15th September) which shows the data fiddling much more profoundly.
Yeah DMI hasn’t liked all the attention they’ve gotten the last few years. Especially over at Tony Hellers place.
I note a further extension of the downward revision today. At this rate they’ll end up pretending tat the minimum is below 2016’s.
Yes and the fat red blob at the end of the DMI current year trace is also unhelpful. I guess they don’t want people to notice short term changes until they’ve had a chance to edit them.
Et tu, DMI? Then fall, Arctic data.
Glad to see NSIDC can measure the ice down thousandths of a square kilometer. Where are the error bars?
“Extensive areas of low concentration ice cover (40 to 70 percent) are still present across much of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean.”
Totally unprdicable………..Unless your a lukewarmer:
CITATION: M.G. Wyatt, et al., “Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century,” (Climate Dynamics, 2013).
“The stadium wave forecasts that sea ice will recover from its recent minimum, first in the West Eurasian Arctic, followed by recovery in the Siberian Arctic,” Wyatt said. “Hence, the sea ice minimum observed in 2012, followed by an increase of sea ice in 2013, is suggestive of consistency with the timing of evolution of the stadium-wave signal.”
Interesting – has anyone else noticed this correct prediction from Marcia Wyatt?
Predictions which come true are extremely bad etiquette in the climate science community. Marcia should attend the Naomi Oreskes finishing school.
I have laboriously analysed the NORSEX Sea Ice *AREA* which is available as (messy) daily data. I get that 2017 came 7th lowest (not 3rd – looks like NSDIC have been cherry-picking again!)
Lowest area was: 2012 (2,945,225 sq km)
2nd lowest area : 2016 (3,312,976 sq km)
3rd lowest area : 2007 (3,569,654 sq km)
4th lowest area : 2011 (3,816,815 sq km)
5th lowest area : 2008 (3,820,534 sq km)
6th lowest area : 2015 (3,892,008 sq km)
7th lowest area : 2017 (4,073,056 sq km)
It is interesting to see how close 2011 was to 2008. I will now do the same with the NORSEX Sea Ice Extent daily data.
Also higher than 2010 in NSIDC (from Charctic graph):
2012: 3.387 million sq km
2016: 4.139
2007: 4.155
2011: 4.344
2015: 4.433
2008: 4.586
2010: 4.615
2017: 4.636
2014: 5.036
2013: 5.054
2009: 5.119
Good point. According to the NORSEX data too, 2017 and 2010 sea ice AREAs are quite close to each other.
7th lowest area : 2017 (4,073,056 sq km)
8th lowest area : 2010 (4,120,683 sq km)
I feel that 2017 was higher than 2010, but only because of a late season freak storm which piled up the growing ice and made for a very late lower low.
I have now analysed the NORSEX Sea Ice EXTENT I find that 2017 came 6th lowest there but is almost a tie with 2011
Lowest Extent: 2012 (4174968 sq km)
2nd Lowest Ext: 2016 (4671393 sq km)
3th Lowest Ext: 2007 (4734297 sq km)
4th Lowest Ext: 2008 (5126552 sq km)
5th Lowest Ext: 2015 (5184488 sq km)
6th Lowest Ext: <> (5255825 sq km)
7th Lowest Ext: 2011 (5260785 sq km)
8th Lowest Ext: 2011 (5533058 sq km)
QC failure . . .
Lowest Extent: 2012 (4174968 sq km)
2nd Lowest Ext: 2016 (4671393 sq km)
3th Lowest Ext: 2007 (4734297 sq km)
4th Lowest Ext: 2008 (5126552 sq km)
5th Lowest Ext: 2015 (5184488 sq km)
6th Lowest Ext: **2017** (5255825 sq km)
7th Lowest Ext: 2011 (5260785 sq km)
8th Lowest Ext: 2010 (5533058 sq km)
The arctic surface temperature does not rise much above freezing during the summer but it also tends to flatten out during winter it does not keep on falling until the sun rises again in summer. I think that the surface heats up in summer and gives kinetic energy to the atmosphere which expands but when the surface cools down in winter the atmosphere contracts and gives this kinetic energy back to the surface which gives us the symmetry shown in the graph, the temperature does not keep falling because there is an atmosphere.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
2SD are not really relevant; 3SD are far more staistically significant and qhould be the only scale to be used.
Rather the temps don’t keep falling because there is liquid water near the surface. Water, even if not freshwater, tends keep temps around 273K. Seawater over +30C is rare, but so is seaice under -30C.
To Donald Penman was that.
It was just a thought but if it was just because the heat lost is greater than the heat gained than surface temperature should keep decreasing until that situation changes.
The Arctic ice has definitely passed minimum now.
Aargh probably, not definitely. Some people never learn.
Even if you are right, fingers crossed you can be wrong.
I am hoping for a big uptake but it is a hope not a declaration.
Javier really needs to consider proxies v reality.