Hurricane Expert Maue: ‘#Irma may bomb to Cat 5’ again

Yikes. Half of Florida is covered by clouds from Irma already.

As predicted, Irma is intensifying in the warm waters north of Cuba. Dr. Maue has been very accurate though both Harvey and Irma (not to mention many others), but in this case I hope his opinion is dead-wrong.

In other news:

Some comparison, size matters:

UPDATE:

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142 thoughts on “Hurricane Expert Maue: ‘#Irma may bomb to Cat 5’ again

  1. What a monster. Pressure dropping again. If Dr. Maue and Joe Bastardi are right this storm will be talked about for a very long time.

    • Lying scuzzbag Mikey Mann will dine out on it for years to come, and none dare ask him about the 12 seasons without any major land-falling US hurricanes.

      • Why would anyone that doesn’t have to misfortune to be in one of his classes be afraid of that little turd? He is afraid to debate and only makes bombastic statements and give lectures. The only time he seems to publically get questioned is before a congressional committee! Little wimp has probably blocked more people on his twitter account than he has followers.

      • He is quick to sue, but delays forever when countersued.

        He will regret suing Steyn.

        Like all bullies, especially little bullies, he can dish it out but can’t take it.

      • who gives a damn what Mickey mann may say in years to come or what you think he may say? There is a major storm heading for landfall and its going to be destructive.

        Having defied most modellers and predictions in turning very late to make its northward turn, it now looks to be heading back to a more central hit on south Florida .
        http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-07-24-1-100

        Current heading at time of posting looks like NNE.

        While latest track predictions show it just brushing the west coast near St Petersburg the current movement will take it on a much more central path into the Everglades.

      • Actually tracking now to hit the Keys east of Key West. The feature that has caused the turn eating into the convective bands on the storms west side. Seeing that makes it less likely it will reach CAT 5 before landfall I think.

    • About five decades ago a contract employee working at the Johnson Space Center showed me a map of strike probabilities of hurricanes located in various parts of the tropical and sub tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The distant location that had the best chances of hitting the Texas coast was located in the Florida Straights. The probabilities were based on past hurricane history.

  2. Looks like the center is poised to pass must north of Veradero Cuba. It has been moving directly west since two P.M. according to the readar picture I have been watching. The NWS track posted then placed the track through the center of Tampa at that time. They said it would heading WNW and projected a nearly immediate radical turn to the north. This storm just keeps moving west of the projections. The trend of discarded tracks have steadily have been moving west. It has missed the turn to hit Miami. Now it looks like it is trending to do the same with Tampa. If I lived in Pensacola I just might be starting to feel just a little nervous. And If I lived in Mobile I might be sitting up straighter and looking closer. Storms in the Florida Straits have been known to track rather well to the west for a time.

  3. It is a monster. What I keep wondering is how it is going to make almost a 90-degree turn north? What has the ability to make something this massive “turn on a dime”. The modeled paths look almost like a “hockey stick” to me?

    I was in Atlanta for Opal in 1995, not a fun time.

    Regardless, my prayers are for everybody in its path.

  4. Have been wondering if the track would be further west than predicted e.g. into the Gulf. The track has been generally westward so far (now roughly WNW) and strong winds are coming from the north east so will Irma swing nearly 90deg to track straight through Florida?

    I’m no meteorologist but am following this closely on windy.com:-

    https://www.windy.com/?20.530,-71.147,5

  5. Ouch. This part is going to hurt. Godspeed to those who have to deal with tonight and tomorrow.
    Miami and Ft. Lauderdale have been spared, but Tampa, St. Pete, etc. are in for a rough time.

  6. Am monitoring NOAA buoys in the keys and south FL, and seems like many are off line or broke.
    The ones that appear broken, seem to fail in under 50kts of wind.

    • Take some notes and screen shots. There has been a pattern for several years. With the way Irma has been presented there will most likely be a lot of high level CYA. I hope Irma is a squib but many are likely praying for the disaster they forecast.

    • Hmm . . I’m seeing some people online talk about low (considering) wind speeds reported in Cuba, and inconsistent radar info . . as though some sort of pysop intended to scare the heck out of us is perhaps being played out . . ????

      • Not pysop. Just playing with numbers to create an impression.
        Strange a PWS at Marathon airport is up and running after a 77MPH gust. Just 1 gust.
        But the NHC says hurricane force winds have hit the keys. Guess a gust is all that is needed.
        Can’t find any buoy stations that indicate anything above 60 kts, and most are in the 30s and 40s.

        [PWS = ??? (Private Weather Station) ? .mod]

    • It does appear to be turning. It has slowed to 7 mph from 9 mph, pressure is slightly falling yet wind speed is also falling. Eye wall replacement cycle?

      Wish it would just turn south and self destruct!

  7. I have to say I’m a wee bit confused –

    “Satellite objective intensity estimate from Auto Dvorak went from 5 to 6 in . .
    .”

    As far as I know, the usual intensity scale (Saffir-Simpson, I think) only goes as far as 5. Obviously, someone may have a scale which goes from 1 to 100, and claim that this hurricane is “unprecedented. Look, it’s a category 14 . . ”
    – according to the Mike Flynn Hurricane Assessment Algorithm, which no-one’s ever heard of.

    Why use Auto Dvorak? Bigger, more terrifying number? A “normal” category 5 is quite scary enough, thank you very much.

    Cheers.

  8. I’ve been following the storm tracks on Weather Underground. The motion of the center of the storm has been gradually slowing. Two days ago the center was moving at 16 MPH. Now (10pm Eastern time) it’s just 6 MPH.

  9. Creedence Clearwater Revival: “Bad Moon Rising”

    Lyrics:

    I see a bad moon a-rising
    I see trouble on the way
    I see earthquakes and lightnin’
    I see bad times today

    Don’t go ’round tonight
    It’s bound to take your life
    There’s a bad moon on the rise

    I hear hurricanes a-blowing
    I know the end is coming soon
    I fear rivers over flowing
    I hear the voice of rage and ruin

    Don’t go ’round tonight
    It’s bound to take your life
    There’s a bad moon on the rise

    I hope you got your things together
    I hope you are quit prepared to die
    Look’s like we’re in for nasty weather
    One eye is taken for an eye

    Oh don’t go ’round tonight
    It’s bound to take your life
    There’s a bad moon on the rise
    There’s a bad moon on the rise

    I hope everyone got their things together and got out of Dodge.

  10. Am still of the view that this hurricane will track more westwards then the models are suggesting.
    Noting the way the winds are blowing between the surface and 250 hPa. lts only the winds at 250 hPa which l would say suggests a northward track from where lrma presently is.
    Note also how the clouds pick up speed(hence the wind) to the east of the eye of this hurricane. Which l believe will have the effect of pushing the nose of this hurricane downwards, So forcing this hurricane to move westwards rather then northwards. That’s my ideas anyway, only time will tell if am right or not.

    • My thoughts exactly, but there is possibly more to it than just the 250Hpa wind flow. As Irma moves north, the flow has more of a chance to “grab” it and swing it north, and Null School has a large portion of the wind under Irma in a few hours time. As the “tug of war” evens out, there is possibly another force (coriolis) that nudges Irma north. What I would find interesting is to hear a point by point explanation about Irmas movements as it seemingly and repeatedly bounced off the coast of Cuba. Really the NHC does an excellent job, for us armchair quarterbacks, kind of easy when we can see what happens 3 hrs after the fact. Fascinating stuff though, Hope all remain safe and heed the warnings.

      • I appreciate the arm-chair quarterbacking of this thread. It is fun to speculate. I don’t know much about hurricanes, but I do know something about reading trends. I see two trends here:

        1. The westward trend. Every time they have revised the storm track of Iris, they have redrawn the new track to the west of the last track. A few days ago, it was going to go up the Atlantic coast of Florida. Then it was going to go right up through the center of Florida. Now it’s going to go up the Gulf coast of Florida. So I’m guessing that the next time they redraw the track it will be drawn west of the Gulf coast of Florida.

        2. The deceleration. Over the last two days there has been a steady 5 MPH per day deceleration in the speed that the eye of Irma is moving. Now (10pm Eastern Time) it is crawling along at just 6 MPH. If the linear deceleration continues it will stop in its tracks sometime tomorrow night. There was a precedent: Hurricane Mitch stopped in its tracks in 1998 before skittering off to the east-north-east.

    • There is a drag effect when the eye wall is partially over land as Irma was over Cuba for most of the day.

      The cyclonic vortex is of course a fluid and not a rigid or semi-rigid tire. But the land under the eye wall imparts an orographic lift to the horizontally directed surface boundary flow. This in effect drags on that portion of the vortex. The drg effect would be greater if the land were on the advancing side of the vortex, so this setup it is weaker with the land on the retreating side of the eye wall (relative to forward motion).

      My question is do the forecast models model this land-eye wall effect? Or do they simply model using pressure patterns and measured winds and SSTs?

  11. Dr. Maue knows a great deal more about hurricanes than I ever will but it doesn’t appear to be strengthening yet. Slowed way down and probably about to make the turn north into water that’s in the U-80’s and away from Cuba, the land mass that helped to weakened it.

    It’s possible to get back to much of its previous strength very quickly. Hurricane Charlie did this with extremely warm waters in a similar location back in 2004…..going from 110 mph to 145 mph in just 3 hours……but time is running out.

    It’s obvious that over the past few days, the guidance has been too far north and east and has had to be continually adjusted farther south and west. Going from the east coast of FL to even off the East, to now along or even west of the west coast. The intensity has also had to be lowered, especially quite a bit today. Sometimes, observations/now casting can be very useful to improve upon computer models that are clearly having a consistent bias/error in the same direction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

  12. Irma seems to be headed to Nashville.
    Hours after NBC announced that Irma was “locked and loaded” for Mar-A-Lago, Irma has decided to become a Gulf storm instead.

    • Left social media has been in twitter nirvana with the thoughts of Mar-A-Lago getting trashed. But like November 8 2016, they will need to go cry in their wine.

      And the Left needs to understand that hurricanes and weather don’t care about climate change or who supports the alarmism. Point them to the thrashing Sir Richard Branson’s luxury island took.

      • Unlesss every one of those Left-leaning, twittering twits loses their job, Ken Storey has a heck of a lawsuit on his hands.

  13. Just a stray thought: How are the Tesla-owning people in southern Florida doing with their evacuation efforts? Bet it’s wonderful to try to find a charging station every 200 miles or so (maybe fewer miles, considering how slow the traffic is moving), wait your turn, then sit for, what, four to six hours (?) to charge the batteries.
    I can easily carry four, five-gallon cans of gasoline in my car, along with my more valuable possessions, and drive for over a thousand miles, if I start with a full tank. With two people taking turns driving, that could be done in less than a day. What’s the best a Tesla-owner can do?

    • It’s not just EV owners that have a problem y’know. Hydrocarbon fueled vehicles are going to get lousy mileage crawling along in traffic at maybe 20kph (12mph) in a tropical climate with the A/C running. So every few hundred miles, you have to find an open gas station that has gas. And possibly wait for hours to get to a pump that can service maybe 15-20 vehicles per hour (at most).

      I’m kind of dubious about evacuation as the survival strategy. If we give each vehicle 10m of lane (need a bit of separation) and assume 20kph, and assume an average of two people per vehicle (probably about right for a rather elderly population), we find that we can evacuate about 2000 vehicles per outbound lane per hour = 4000 folks per hour.

      How many outbound lanes? For the Florida Keys, it’s two max. One if you want to get supplies like bottled water and gasoline to Key West. Maybe one can evacuate the Keys in a day or so. But that just dumps the folks from the Keys into Miami-Dade where they can join the folks trying to leave an area with a population of almost 3 million. How many lanes out of Miami-Dade excluding US1 South to the Keys? Pragmatically – maybe 10. — That’s 40,000 people per hour. And that assumes no breakdowns or accidents or vehicles that run out of gas. And many of those 10 lanes run through areas where people are also evacuating.

      Not a great situation I think.

    • My wife’s Mercedes GLA 250 mini-SUV shuts down in stopped traffic–re-starts itself when you remove your foot off the brake. I find it uneasy give the fact that my 55 Ford would do the same until I finally figured out the idle setting. I suggest that it is a real great advantage when other vehicles are idling their fuel away in long traffic lines trying to get out of Dodge or Ford (sarc).

  14. If this hurricane manages to thread the Straits and miss Florida altogether (an event which now cannot be entirely ruled out), then not only are the forecasters going to look ridiculous, but their warnings are going to be all the less heeded when Irma finally does make a US landfall God knows where. Additionally, the massive scale of the Florida evacuation is going to do significant damage to the state’s economy in terms of lost wages and productivity, hurricane or no hurricane. The social dynamics post-Irma have the potential to turn quite nasty depending on what happens over the next 6-12 hours.

  15. “Irma’s intensity has been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I’d rather wait to lower further until we’ve seen the full data set from the Air Force mission.” From NHC at 11 pm.

  16. In reading all the news, even NHC, the amount of “potential” death and doom adjectives is stunning.
    I understand the need to be cautious but all the “mights, coulds, etc” are getting weary.
    Even those espousing potential flood surges are all of a sudden hedging their claims with a lot of qualifiers.

    • As I listen to the breathless meteorologists on TV right now, I’m reminded of this.

      “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

      ― H.L. Mencken

    • I don’t agree with that assessment in this case. IMO most of the meteorologists are just excited and enthusiastic and I know the feeling from being a soldier. You train and study and learn the science and art in your field for years and then when the time comes and there is an opportunity to use it you want to do so. You want to prove your mettle and professional competence and test yourself even though you know that the very situation that is allowing you to do so is a terrible human disaster.. I think many of those you are referring to face a similar conundrum.

  17. Just a small point, but most of the cloud cover over the northern half of Florida is from a NorthEaster that came in yesterday, high wind, bands of rain. My sense is that the NorthEaster is stronger than expected and is playing a role in shifting Irma west.

  18. Photo of tree with bark stripped in San Martin, see with photo in http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/162643.
    It is the with photo in the series and shows bark stripped off a tree at fit off the ground. It is the photo of a grey SUV in the foreground with the tree in front of it bent double. Shot taken by Gerben van Es

    This is reputed to require 200 mph according to the wiki on the 1780 hurricane & many other sources

    Is it time to revise either the speed of IRMA or the 200 mph figure for bark stripping?

    • Bark gets stripped off trees by flying sheets of roofing iron. They’re everywhere in a strong hurricane and they are a major cause of death. A good hit from one of those can be enough to completely break a tree trunk.

  19. Irma is the logical result of nature. When sea surface temperatures rise to 31.7°C (89.1°F) in Key West (Florida), as an example, then the conditions for strong hurricanes are created. The heat of the water is energy for hurricanes.
    What has to be done is prevent that such situations can ever happen.
    1. Know the facts. Sea surface temperatures are more significant than temperatures above land and have to be available at every time..
    2. By all means one has to prevent sea surface temperatures reaching that high. The inhabitants of the coastal areas have to take profit of this huge energy, not hurricanes! Example: a sea water heating installation extracts heat from the sea water and uses it to heat houses. The cooled water flows back to the sea. More information: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/clues/files/hague
    3. By all means, the sea surface temperature in the environment of civilization has to remain below a certain level. Why not move an iceberg to a region in case of urgency?

    So, a whole (new?) discipline has to be elaborated. If people want to avoid yearly catastrophies regarding economic and social welfare, such studies are very urgently needed and have to be implemented immediately.

    • 1. Know the facts.:
      Folks in Florida don’t need to heat their homes in August and September ! An iceberg is a drop in the ocean [sic].

      “By all means one has to prevent sea surface temperatures reaching that high. ”

      That “new” discipline is called geo-engineering and will a catastrophic sorcerers apprentice job since we have very little true understanding of how climate works. Untill you understand something ( REALLY understand ) you can not fix or adjust it.

      Look at how much temps drop after Irma passes and you will get an idea of the scale of what you would need to do to achieve the same result.

      • I know, if you could take air from high pressure systems and inject it into cyclonic depressions we could stop hurricanes forming !! ;)

    • Central eye currently very defocused; ground truth 10m wind speeds in Keys and Miami are NOT EVEN hurricane force at this time.

      Claims of the power of this storm seem to overblown. No pun.

  20. Last night watching the Weather Channel reporting on Ivan as I was dozing off the young man, don’t know his name, reporting from Key West, said that several people down there had decided to ride out Irma on their boats!
    Darwin awards all around!

    • As long as you’re not near land that is probably a lot safer than being on land unless you’re in a cat5 building. No danger from storm swell at sea and much less broken glass and bits of 4×2 flying around !

      • I would agree with that assessment if the vessel were a ship of decent size. But a Boat?

        I will once again transcribe here the experience of the skipper and crew of the WW II US submarine Tang when caught on the surface in a Typhoon south of Ryukyus Islands in October 1944. Keep that Tang was a 311 foot long vessel displacing over 2,000 tons surfaced displacement when loaded for a war patrol. And that submarines have a thick pressure hull and ride low in the water with a very low profile when on the surface making them relatively stable in rough seas compared to a DD or DE of comparable size and tonnage. Thus when buttoned up a submarine is much harder to broach or capsize than a conventional vessel of the same tonnage.

        Transcription with some snips noted for brevity from: Clear The Bridge” written by the subs commander Richard O’Kane (recipient of the MOH).

        “The immediate pressure on my ears told me that securing had already been in progress. That’s my exec, I thought. Not so pleasant was the last barometer reading before the boat was sealed, 27,8 inches; it left no doubt about the severe nature of the storm……………….

        Frank and I headed aft, hanging on as we could, but when we reached the control room Tang took a violent roll to starboard. I landed on the after end of the high-pressure manifold, with my face about a foot from the bubble inclinometer on the forward end of the low-pressure blows. It read 70 degrees, and there she hung, obviously broached by the seas…………………..we eased back to 60 degrees for a couple of rollers and then slowly righted………………..

        When submerged, looking through the scope gives the viewer the impression that his eye is just above the surface of the sea, at the position of the lens. When the boat is on the surface, it’s like looking down from a 55-foot tower. I was looking up at a single monstrous wave, so bit it had normal waves on its crest, which were blowing out into spume as it rolled in. Reflexes made me duck momentarily just before it hit, and then green water, solid green sea, went over the top of everything, burying Tang scope and all. Amazingly, the scope was still there when the wave rolled past………..

        Our present position was untenable, for we were being pushed ahead in addition to our own turns, and our total speed likely equaled the advance of the storm. We could thus remain in the dangerous semicircle for days, even into the Ryukyus to the immediate north……

        We had long since foregone the option of diving, for our ballast tanks were divided port and starboard and had individual floods and vents. A short-lived loss of stability accompanied any dive, and with rolls such as we were experiencing the down tanks would flood first and could capsize the boat……………………There was but one option; we had to turn in front of the seas that had just knocked us down………..

        [Tang successfully made the turn but was nearly knocked over doing so. Now we pick up after making the turn as the ship bucked up and down heading into the seas.]

        ……Of more importance was Larson’s report of no injuries; it seemed impossible, but a submarine lies so deep in the sea that it does not have the dangerous whip of a surface ship…………..

        For five taught hours they kept Tang on course, coached by Frank, me, and the OODs on the scope for the seas determined our heading. Quite suddenly the wicked seas changed to mountainous swells under torrential rains. The winds moderated, became confused. Were we in the eye of the typhoon…….? For a quick check we tried cracking the hatch to obtain a new barometric reading, it wouldn’t budge, held tight by increased atmospheric pressure. High pressure air was bled into the boat, a full half-inch, to free the hatch; the barometer read 28.4.

        [They were out of the Tyhoon. Later during the discussion between the officers]

        I recalled an experience at sea with a hurricane packing 100-knot winds and spoke conservatively when I estimated that the winds of they typhoon had half again the speed. In the height of the seas there was no comparison. We were not just guessing, for in the Quartermasters Notebook were recorded various periods during which the scope had been completely buried, the longest being 14 seconds. Sketching the wave crests in their most modest form, and arriving at their speed from the recorded frequency, Tang’s junior officers calculated that on occasions a minimum of 40′ had rolled above the lens of our scope. I would not dispute their figure nor would Frank, we had seen the waves, and 95 feet from crest to trough seemed conservative.”

        Nope, you can stay on some little boat Gregg. Me, I’m heading for the highest ground around.

  21. As of 6:15 AM Irma just barely a Cat 4 – 130 MPH (129 is a Cat3) it is a very weak Cat 4, and estimate is for “perhaps slight increase in winds before Florida landfall” From this vantage point a strong Cat 4 or weak Cat 5 seems impossible. Hurricane center has it as a Major hurricane (over 110MPH) halfway up Florida, then a hurricane (over 75MPH) until just crossing into Georgia, where it becomes a Tropical storm (over 39MPH) .
    Miami impact seems relatively slight : only wind gusts achieve hurricane force, and just barely – 75MPH – in fact estimate shows no hurricane force winds on the east coast – looks like for the entire east coast of Florida, Irma will just be a tropical storm.
    The west coast of Florida will be most affected : Storm surges 5 to 10 feet all along the west coast, but Naples perhaps 15 feet. Don’t see how a body of water as large as Tampa Bay and its rather small entrance can be affected very much by a surge this small. Disney World hotels remain open, park closed. Tampa, Sarasota, Naples, Ft Myers face the biggest impacts – all with estimates of 8 to 12 inches of rain , gusts over 100MPH but no avg wind estimates provided. Rainfall should be no problem – I lived on the west coast for years and saw rainfall totals from storms (not hurricanes) much, much larger than this.

  22. I’ve come to the conclusion that these Simpson scale hurricane categories are misleading and useless. Use MPH and get an accurate wind force measure. Cat 4, for example, covers a very large territory – 130 to 156MPH, and thus tells you almost nothing, even if you know the definition of Cat 4 (which few do).

    • The scale is fine, as certain common damage is likely to occur at each category. CAT 5 is pretty much most every wood house flattened, trees snapped. ( I have yet to see true CAT 5 damage from Irma except from storm surge and spin off tornadoes)
      The problem is the primary criteria for labeling hurricanes ( ground speed readings at 10 meter height, one minute sustained) is being ignored, when in the past it was the ONLY method along with air pressure.
      Harvey was a CAT 2 from ground based readings with a singular peak gust of 132 mph. Previous CAT 4 in Texas had peak gusts of 172 and three over 150. Harvey was damaging because Harvey hovered over Houston, a subsiding city built on a swamp.
      The Labor Day hurricane had 175 mph sustained winds and a long gust at an airforce station of 200 mph, then the instrument broke. Irma is a bxxxx, but is not remotely as strong as the Labor Day hurricane. Storm Surge damage and isolated tornado damage will be very bad however.

  23. landfall very soon between Big Pine Key and Key West : KYWF1 being nearest reporting station. Air press. below 965 mbar , not a record breaker !

    Wind speeds now dropping as enters the eye. 10m wind speed did not quite make it into “hurricane” levels of 64 kt

    Not sure what altitude they are measuring 129 mph .

    • Latest forecast from NOAA for Marathon in the Keys. ( Looks to be about 15 miles from the eye wall on the strong , eastern side of Irma…
      …HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT …
      …STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT …

      * LOCATIONS AFFECTED
      – Marathon
      – Long Key

      * WIND
      – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
      – Peak Wind Forecast: 70-90 mph with gusts to 110 mph
      – Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Monday
      morning
      – Window for Hurricane force winds: until this afternoon.”””””

      The earlier was calling for CAT 3.

      • Thanks David, where did you get that warning with Cat 1 All I can find is the earlier ones with 130 mph winds!

        Where is the official landfall windspeeds?

    • Amazing hype.

      Labor day storm reality

      Formed August 29, 1935
      Dissipated September 10, 1935
      (Extratropical after September 6)
      Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 185 mph (300 km/h)
      Lowest pressure 892 mbar (hPa); 26.34 inHg
      (Lowest recorded in continental United States)
      Fatalities 423 total
      Areas affected
      The Bahamas Florida Keys, Southwest and North Florida (Big Bend)

    • Hi Vuk, yes nice webcam view.

      But in Cornwall (England) we wouldn’t call that rough. Looks like about 40mph to me. Is anyone here an expert on estimating wind speed from the bend in palm trees?

      Of course, that is the East coast – West will be worse.

      Rich.

    • Windjammer webcam of the beach in Lauderdaleby the Sea is deceptive. About 400 yards offshore is a major coral reef stretching from north Miami almost to Palme Beach. It about the fishing pier length again further out, and the first of three reef bands is only about 5 meters deep. I am in north Fort Lauderdale about a mile south of Windjammer, directly on the beach. Waves breaking over the reef are about 15 feet, some higher. Spectacular sight when the rain lets up enough to see it. The waves do not have enough fetch to reform before they reach the beach after crashing on the reef. So the shore sees 4-6 feet. We presently have wind ~70 with measured gusts over 85.

  24. Hi Rich
    wind speed is the post above,
    “Of course, that is the East coast – West will be worse.”
    My brother is just 3-4 miles inland from the webcam location and decided to sit it out. Building is recent (built for at least direct Cat3), as long as his apartment’s windows don’t explode they will be ok, I hope.

  25. looks to me like it will be a weak CAT 3 by the time it reaches the Florida mainland. That cooler dryer air to the west that steered it north is kicking it’s ass. The eyewall has lost integrity. And with more and more of the bands going over Florida to the east and the feature to the west impinging on the western bands it sure seems pretty certain now that Joe Bastardi and Dr. Maue were correct about the track but are not even going to close on intensity. Such is the way it goes forecasting these storms.

      • But that trough to the west, the very same one that steered it to the north from Cuba, is stronger than anticipated. and causing considerable sheer. It is really having an impact on it in the WNW. It still looks to me like it may even cause Irma to go a bit further east than forecast making landfall a bit earlier and further south down by Naples. This truck driver, with his limited knowledge, that never doubted the storm would turn north and Impact Florida when it was coming over Cuba, just doesn’t think there is a chance in hell of it becoming a CAT V and highly doubt that it will even maintain CAT 4 strength. What the eye does will be a prime indicator on radar of what is happening and the eye right now has been deteriorating pretty quickly. But that’s just my opinion.

  26. High solar activity (geomagnetic storm) caused an increase in jet velocity in the north. As a result, there was a cutoff of the jet stream in the eastern US. This loop blocks the hurricane over Florida.

    • Really? As far as I can see, the eye hasn’t touched land yet. And where has a Cat 4 135mph sustained wind been recorded?

      Rich.

  27. Judging from the satellite images, looks like Key West is having a sunny morning.
    Be willing to bet that there are a lot of folks enjoying a breakfast beer!

  28. Irma landfall between Key West and Vaca key. Both NDBC stations less than 60 knots sustained winds.
    Wind speed measured by surface anemometers nearest the eyewall are showing less than hurricane threshold for the Saffir-Simpson scale which is 64 knots.
    Looking at radar the heaviest band in the storm is to the east at Fowey Rock NDBC station FWYF1 that has anemometer height of 44 meters above sea level. The 7am recording shows maximum sustained winds of 63 knots. Time plots at any of the NDBC stations show all surface winds below hurricane.
    Vaca key station nearest the east side of the eyewall shows 46 knots measured by anemometer 9.6 meters above sea level.
    No surprise that the NHC and the hysterical media are claiming Category 4 at the same time.
    Real time videos of reporters standing around show palm trees in winds consistent with the NDBC stations which are tropical storm force winds.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

  29. “Irma’s eye has just crossed Cudjoe key in Florida. 106 mph max wind gust.” t

    “A 91 mph gust was recorded at 7:55 a.m. at the NWS Office in Key West.”

    “According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Irma crossed Cudjoe Key just east of Key West around 9:10 a.m. EDT, with maximum SUSTAINED winds at the time estimated at 130 mph and a central pressure of 929 millibars.”

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas-forecast

    ===========

    Is it even a catagory 1?

    NHC is BS as has been for several years.

    • Let me see if I can understand. The National Hurricane Center estimated the SUSTAINED winds at 130 mph and yet max measured gusts were 106 mph. Yea … I get it!

      Drain the swamp but flush the NHC!

    • The 106 gust was measured on nearby Big Pine Key just to the east, not on Cudjoe Key. Regardless, Big Pine was still within the eye. 130 sustained? What a joke.

  30. If people want to keep an eye on winds speeds recorded by buoys, use the link http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.0n&lon1=80.0w&uom=E&dist=150&ot=A&time=8 .

    Fowey Rock, FWYF1, see http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1 , has been recording the highest speeds for the last few hours, between 60 and 70 knots, i.e. Category 1 Saffir-Simpson. Interestingly Fowey Rock is on the Miami side. Hurricanes going north typically have the highest winds on the east side, so perhaps, emphasize perhaps, Naples isn’t in too much danger as the eye approaches it. There could be higher winds on land of course just to the east of the eye.

    Does anyone have a link to the nearest NWS station to Naples?

    Rich.

  31. Homestead Air Base station KHST, south of Miami and not too far from the sea, stopped reporting winds after 11am having had a gust of 62mph out of a sustained wind of 28mph.

    Enquiring minds want to know: did a gust take it out or is the NWS trying to starve its customers, you the people, of accurate information?

    Rich.

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