Hurricane Expert Maue: '#Irma may bomb to Cat 5' again

I would agree with that assessment if the vessel were a ship of decent size. But a Boat?
I will once again transcribe here the experience of the skipper and crew of the WW II US submarine Tang when caught on the surface in a Typhoon south of Ryukyus Islands in October 1944. Keep that Tang was a 311 foot long vessel displacing over 2,000 tons surfaced displacement when loaded for a war patrol. And that submarines have a thick pressure hull and ride low in the water with a very low profile when on the surface making them relatively stable in rough seas compared to a DD or DE of comparable size and tonnage. Thus when buttoned up a submarine is much harder to broach or capsize than a conventional vessel of the same tonnage.
Transcription with some snips noted for brevity from: Clear The Bridge” written by the subs commander Richard O’Kane (recipient of the MOH).
“The immediate pressure on my ears told me that securing had already been in progress. That’s my exec, I thought. Not so pleasant was the last barometer reading before the boat was sealed, 27,8 inches; it left no doubt about the severe nature of the storm……………….
Frank and I headed aft, hanging on as we could, but when we reached the control room Tang took a violent roll to starboard. I landed on the after end of the high-pressure manifold, with my face about a foot from the bubble inclinometer on the forward end of the low-pressure blows. It read 70 degrees, and there she hung, obviously broached by the seas…………………..we eased back to 60 degrees for a couple of rollers and then slowly righted………………..
When submerged, looking through the scope gives the viewer the impression that his eye is just above the surface of the sea, at the position of the lens. When the boat is on the surface, it’s like looking down from a 55-foot tower. I was looking up at a single monstrous wave, so bit it had normal waves on its crest, which were blowing out into spume as it rolled in. Reflexes made me duck momentarily just before it hit, and then green water, solid green sea, went over the top of everything, burying Tang scope and all. Amazingly, the scope was still there when the wave rolled past………..
Our present position was untenable, for we were being pushed ahead in addition to our own turns, and our total speed likely equaled the advance of the storm. We could thus remain in the dangerous semicircle for days, even into the Ryukyus to the immediate north……
We had long since foregone the option of diving, for our ballast tanks were divided port and starboard and had individual floods and vents. A short-lived loss of stability accompanied any dive, and with rolls such as we were experiencing the down tanks would flood first and could capsize the boat……………………There was but one option; we had to turn in front of the seas that had just knocked us down………..
[Tang successfully made the turn but was nearly knocked over doing so. Now we pick up after making the turn as the ship bucked up and down heading into the seas.]
……Of more importance was Larson’s report of no injuries; it seemed impossible, but a submarine lies so deep in the sea that it does not have the dangerous whip of a surface ship…………..
For five taught hours they kept Tang on course, coached by Frank, me, and the OODs on the scope for the seas determined our heading. Quite suddenly the wicked seas changed to mountainous swells under torrential rains. The winds moderated, became confused. Were we in the eye of the typhoon…….? For a quick check we tried cracking the hatch to obtain a new barometric reading, it wouldn’t budge, held tight by increased atmospheric pressure. High pressure air was bled into the boat, a full half-inch, to free the hatch; the barometer read 28.4.
[They were out of the Tyhoon. Later during the discussion between the officers]
I recalled an experience at sea with a hurricane packing 100-knot winds and spoke conservatively when I estimated that the winds of they typhoon had half again the speed. In the height of the seas there was no comparison. We were not just guessing, for in the Quartermasters Notebook were recorded various periods during which the scope had been completely buried, the longest being 14 seconds. Sketching the wave crests in their most modest form, and arriving at their speed from the recorded frequency, Tang’s junior officers calculated that on occasions a minimum of 40′ had rolled above the lens of our scope. I would not dispute their figure nor would Frank, we had seen the waves, and 95 feet from crest to trough seemed conservative.”
Nope, you can stay on some little boat Gregg. Me, I’m heading for the highest ground around.

But that trough to the west, the very same one that steered it to the north from Cuba, is stronger than anticipated. and causing considerable sheer. It is really having an impact on it in the WNW. It still looks to me like it may even cause Irma to go a bit further east than forecast making landfall a bit earlier and further south down by Naples. This truck driver, with his limited knowledge, that never doubted the storm would turn north and Impact Florida when it was coming over Cuba, just doesn’t think there is a chance in hell of it becoming a CAT V and highly doubt that it will even maintain CAT 4 strength. What the eye does will be a prime indicator on radar of what is happening and the eye right now has been deteriorating pretty quickly. But that’s just my opinion.