This is one of those posts I wish I didn’t have to make. Dr. Ryan Maue, hurricane expert and friend of WUWT has advised us that the worst case scenario is going to happen for Florida:
No longer any spread or uncertainty about landfall of Hurricane
#Irma … this is happening for sure, unfortunately.
He’s referring to this collection of forecast model paths:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) concurs:
The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore says:
5pm track from from NHC paints a grim picture for the Keys and southwest Florida. NHC brings #Irma to Cat 5 160 mph before hitting the Keys. pic.twitter.com/aZAu24xQCR
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 8, 2017
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/082055.shtml
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:
Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3 inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Best wishes to all, we hope for the best possible outcome under the worst possible circumstances.
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Storm Surge Prediction for Biscayne Bay = 10 to 12 feet
I wish they would include a tide chart with these graphics.
Article is bullshit. Every 8 hours the turning point is 60 miles further west. By the time it “makes” the turn it’ll be offshore and the S.S. will barely come on-shore.
As someone who just went thru Harvey all I can offer are my prayers for the safety of the people of Florida and anyone in Irmas path.
Should have turned north by now, but it seems intent on visiting Cuba first.
Notanist
Bah humbug! Originally, the paths were up central FL, then they shifted (as a group) across FL to the east coast, then just off the east coast headed up towards Savannah, then back right up the middle of FL. Now? Up the west coast over top of Tampa.
Exactly RA!
I have never seen anything at all like the inanity on display for the past week.
…… to explain is the CURVE TO THE NORTH. from Sat. 2 pm on….. why doesnt the H. stays right on its track to the West? If it does not go into the curve….it was all balla-hoe and alarmism to scare the little guy in Florida….on the VENTUSKY weathermap the
Est West air flow is very strong….. why should the H. outcome be a South-North track?.
I would rather guess the track is along the Cuban coast and it would end in Alabama.
Volunteers please!
weltklima,
Hurricanes are steered to a large extent by the weather features around them. Irma continued to track west because of a high pressure system north of it advancing west as it did. Now in the SE US there is a low pressure system or “trough” and the wind flow around it expected to steer it to the north. It’s more complex than that but those are the highlights. To learn more about why watch the video from Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits titled:
“Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 8, 2017”
Here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Robert Anson Heinlein? None of that is a comfort to my wife, she is angry and scared, Boy is just scared, this is the first time he will go with me into, well, whatever it turns out to be. He was too young for Katrina. Comes a point. And I really don’t want to do this again. Want. Not actually a word that applies to reality.
Thanks RAH…… it seems your weather map is months behind. Open please the
http://www.ventusky weather map and the SE US has a high of 1020 hPa (check the
air pressure map) and the wind flowing with 30- 40 kmh from Northeast to Southwest
over Florida, and not the other way around (check the wind map). This wind flow is increasing in speed…I do not see that the H. would move against the wind flow and a “trough” is also absent. I believe there must be some fake news in your map, left over from Obama time..
FLA has had several days evac notice, those who willingly remain had best be prepared for what is coming. Plenty of multi-storey buildings in the region, get your asses in them. Now. Get above flood level and stay to the interiors. Don’t be stupid, stay away from windows.
“those who willingly remain had best be prepared for what is coming. Plenty of multi-storey buildings in the region, get your asses in them. Now.”
Hey, assmunch…how about you STFU?
Now.
Really? People should not do anything to protect themselves? (snip) mod
Twenty million people should invite themselves in as guests anywhere they can find a multi story building?
What?
Every word is contemptible.
You write in a condescending and officious tone that goes way beyond insulting, without even making any sense at all.
Is it your everyday habit to tell millions of people what to do and do now?
And then make that thing you tell them a jackass impossibility?
You must be real great to work with, and lotsa fun at parties.
I can just about believe you must work in government making policy at the bureaucratic level.
Your comeback takes the cake.
Follow your idiotic orders or they are not doing anything?
Is that all the possibilities your mind can conjure.
I am gonna break it to you not gently.
You are a jerk, and have no idea what you are talking about, and are as persuasive as a loud drunk that falls staggering out of a barroom door into ones path.
Im struck by the thought of what a mass exodus would look like with Electric vehicles.
Yea, visions of nightmare. Actual self powered vehicles have a hard enough time in these situations.
I think it would look like a lot of people walking
If an EV runs out of power in an evacuation, it would be harder to recharge it and stop it from blocking traffic than it would be for a fellow evacuee or rescue worker (in a helicopter maybe) to pour a few gallons of gas into a gasoline-powered car.
Can you imagine a bunch of EVs trying to drive through rising salty storm surge? Short circuits, uncontrolled discharges….. electrocution hazards.
Not to worry…Elon will stand besides the highway throwing batteries to his adoring throngs of people who do not care about no stinking ranges or no stinking recharge time!
Sadly, South Florida is about to get a real test of the substantial upgrade of its building codes. Dade and Broward counties are referred to as the HVHZ (High Velocity Hurricane Zone). Much of the code was written after Andrew and focuses on wind borne debris protection – impact resistant glazing, storm shutters, roof/wall connections, mobile home tie down, etc. as well has higher basic wind speed criteria. But there is a limit to what can be done and remain economically viable. Other than large steel reinforced concrete structures, not much can deal with storm surge. Wind loads are proportional to the square of the velocity. Fwind(psf) = 0.00256 x V^2 (Bernoulli equation).
For a 100 mph wind the load is 25.6 pounds per square foot. At 150 mph the load would be 57.6 psf. If Irma maintains wind speeds at or above this level, it is going to be devastating. The effect of wind pressure can be amplified by openings in structures and negative pressures on the leeward. Much of the HVHZ requires structures to be designed for 90 psf or more. But there are undoubtedly many older structures built before the current requirements that are likely to be destroyed. And, there is a significant concern regarding the quality of new construction and adequate enforcement of the current codes.
Since it looks like a lot of the state will see HVHZ conditions, it will be interesting to see if Dade/ Broward come through better than other areas with less stringent requirements.
I certainly hope that the folks in Irma’s path have found adequate shelter and will stay safe.
Given current forecast track, the biggest problem will be storm surge from Naples to Tampa Bay.
We used CFAN’s track call 9/5 to decide to shelter in place in Fort Lauderdale. Unlikely to experience more than Cat 1. We survived a direct eyewall hit from Wilma at Cat 3 in 2005. Post Andrew concrete and steel building.
ristvan ==> You should be alright in Ft Lauderdale — you will have a storm, maybe even a big one, but if you don’t live on the waterfront or on a Florida canal, it won’t be that bad.
As of this morning, 10 am, the eye is dragging along the north shore of Cuba, which should bring down the strength of the storm overall – and the projected landfall keep moving a little west every cycle, now zero’d in on Sanibel Island.
We are hoping our friends in Punta Gorda have evacuated.
Wishing the best of luck to all Floridians. Protect yourselves first, your property second.
The one close friend I have in the region already put 1000 miles between him and Irma so I know he’s okay. Still hoping his home survives with little or no damage.
I wonder how many people are driving their electric cars out of Florida? Or are they just leaving them there for the elements to ravage?
I remember watching a documentary decades ago (excuse my ignorance, Im from Oz) that said that part of (I think Florida Keys) was built on sandbanks that were only geologically recent, like less than 20k years or something. That some heavily populated places were built on what was ephemera and could be washed away with enough of a cyclone. They said there were lots of retirees there and that the road routes out were a bit of a bottleneck, and that the sandbanks (with all the buildings on top) could wash away and lots of people die.
Does anyone know if this scenario is possible or likely under current conditions or was that decades old beatup?
The Florida Keys is a coral reef from the previous (Sangamonian) interglacial when the sea level was slightly higher than now. I’ve camped down there and it sure as hell isn’t sand. It’s coral limestone and you need a sledgehammer to get the tent-pins in.
So the Keys won’t wash away, but the storm surge will probably go right over them like it did in the Labor Day hurricane in 1935.
The barrier islands that line the East Coast and much of the Gulf Coast of the US and are widely built up, with cities and towns and millions of people and expensive real estate, are big sandbars though.
Mainly shaped and regularly reconfigured by huge storms like hurricanes and nor’easters.
Glad the nhc is forecasting this…..my uninformed look has the storm going over cuba, late turn, no keys, no florida. Will be interestng to watch…thoughts to all in her path.
If it goes the direction they say, Marathon and Islamadora in the Keys will be ground zero.
Better to be prepared and not need it, then to be unprepared and suffer the consequences. My reading of the baro-map suggests that it is possible Irma will not make landfall in Florida, but will follow a path of least resistance and continue to track westward. The keys look the most vulnerable, but actual Miami may get lucky. A hard right turn to the north is possible, but their is no sign of that happening as of 9/9/17 Z0300.
Looks like the whole eye of Irma went inland just south of Cayo Coco in Cuba – we’ll see where it emerges onto open water again…too far west and it goes into the gulf…
Do our hurricane planes fly into the eye of the hurricane when it’s over Cuba? I doubt it, they’ll get shot down.
Last post tonight – good night all – hope for the best…
There was a comment on this site within 24 hours that Cuba allows our hurricane planes over its territory.
No radar will see it in these clouds anyway.
I currently in central Florida, waiting out the storm in a Disney resort hotel.
Looking at the latest wind speed forecast map, I see some good news.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?#wcontents
Looks like Miami has only a 30 to 40 percent chance of getting Category 1 windspeed of 74mph. Let’s hope that Westward trend of the last six hours continues!!!
Don’t you believe them!
There are several eggspurts here who have already ordered the handwringing over the loss of Miami to commence.
It is so sad that Miami ever had to ever get hit again by a hurricane…some people have friends there for golly sake.
If the storm hit farther away and has lower max sustained winds, the wind and storm surge there will be far worse that a closer landfall.
I know, I would not have believed it either!
And add up the forward speed with the faster wind speed listed to get and amount Miami will be wiped out with…the guys who measure wind speed do not take the readings with respect to any actual ground surface.
I know!
I would not have thought is was possible to specify a wind speed without respect to the fixed surface either…but there ya go!
The weird part is, in this storm, unlike in every single other one we have ever seen, the measured wind speed will be HIGHER that the max quoted for the whole storm, instead of not having one single location measure a speed anywhere near the stated intensity.
That is what bad storms and panic artists do.
My business partner lives in Boca Raton, cement-block home, hurricane shingles, generator. You live there, must be aware of the events of the past.
This is the Information Age. Much more data than we have ever had before, and all these claims about “Unprecedented,” well, shall we say, Unfounded claims.
Of course it has happened before.
Just not in the last 100 years of our 4.5 Billion-year-old planet.
And also, not since several million people moved to South Florida in the last couple-three decades.
And also, 1992, remember Andrew?
And one more thing, they tell you Ocean surface temperatures are Unprecedented, another lie, we have no reliable data.
Love the Mass Media, so helpful….
Um, I am pretty sure Bad hurricanes have hit most every spot in Florida at least once in the past 100 years.
So far not this year yet. I for one am waiting to see if and when and who and how bad.
Looks like turn to the north has begun.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=42.43999863&lon=-71.5&zoom=8&pin=&rad=1&rad.type=00Q&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0
EWE,
Link takes you to the Boston Mass. area…. nicht sehr gut!
I’m one of the few libertarian/conservative in this swamp.
(Am ex-USN. EW3 was my rate/rating there)
Sorry, it’s late and I’m tired. Missed the meaning of your post.
Not sure how to get a proper link, but if you dig into wundermap (small wunder) you’ll see what I mean.
No thanks. Show us please.
We are all tired.
You already dug in, said something, and now want us to do some research?
also, you can zoom out until you see the area of interest, click on it, and then zoom in.
do fine adjustments by holding ‘mouse’ button down moving cursor across the screen.
Change lat=42.43999863 to lat=25.5 and zoom out until Cuba comes into the field of view.
thanks,
also you can zoom out until you see the area of interest, click on it, and then zoom in.
do fine adjustments by holding ‘mouse’ button down moving cursor across the screen.
The worst case scenario IS about to happen?
Or MAY be about to happen?
There are a lot of so called worst case scenarios.
So far none of them have occurred, and yet here are so many grown adults crying in their coffee about something everyone knows damn well is just a matter of time.
All this useless beauty…
I am having a hard time believing that ragged mess without even a completely closed eyewall anymore is still the monster that tore into those islands. Dry air is now appearing to entrain into the center…there are convection free areas within a few tens of miles of the eye.
Yep, some of the images linked by ren seem to show its structure is breaking up and dispersing having touched the coast of Cuba.
TPW for the body of the storm has dropped from 3″ to 2.5″ , since it’s running right along the coast of Cuba this is going to dry it further and disperse a lot of its energy.
I hope the failed forecasts of the last few days did not lull people on the north coast of Cuba into a false sense of safety.
The hurricane eye is now moving along the north coast of Cuba.
The jet stream pushes in the North Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/h5-loop-rb.html
Good thing Miami has been evacuated.
Jose will also move west.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
ren, both the “rainbow loop” IR image and total precipitable water maps seems to be showing Cuba is defusing and dispersing Irma.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-62.96,35.63,631/loc=-68.630,36.678
looks like the southerly incursion of the jet stream has exerted enough pressure to shift the track slightly south of what was predicted a day or two ago making it hit Cuba, which at that time was not in its path and delaying the turn north which has yet to materialise.
Sure will be ironic if Cuba ends up saving Florida.
Jose aint going to amount to a hill of beans. Maybe add some pain to those islands which are trying to recover from a full hit from Irma but not much more.