Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says tonight:
Oh my … Hurricane
#Irma just entered “beast mode” … incredible convection flaring. Satellite estimates now > T 7.0 and Category 5.
He adds:
There it is T 7.0 140-knots Category 5 satellite estimate from ADT (raw) GOES-16:
Tonight’s
@NHC_Atlantic will likely put Hurricane#Irma 120-hour location over or very near tip of South Florida. Begin preparation steps.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK (From NHC)
——————————
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.6 North,
longitude 56.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph
(20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over
portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early
Wednesday.
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (235
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure just estimated from a Hurricane Hunter
plane was 939 mb (27.73 inches).
Irma’s projected location on Sunday Morning:
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Maybe something for the Tips and Notes, but there has been a recently published paper that casts doubt on the GHE. It carried out an empirical experiment to ascertain the effect 9if any)
See: A Novel Investigation about the Thermal Behaviour of Gases under the Influence of IR-Radiation: A Further Argument against the Greenhouse Thesis
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-novel-investigation-about-the-thermal-behaviour-of-gases-under-theinfluence-of-irradiation-a-further-argument-against-the-greenh-2157-7617-1000393.pdf
Hopefully, this paper will be discussed in this site.
Hopefully it won’t, as this site is for discussion on climate science and that’s not what that is.
Please see:
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/11/new-sham-journal-OMICS-climate-science-denier-ties-heartland-institute
Hah, Griff, of all the sources I would trust for information…..desmogblog is on the bottom of the list. Not to say what they say is or is not true, I would just never click on that link to even check the veracity. There are other Warmist blogs that aren’t so……..eh, I won’t say it.
Hilarious that Griffie thinks he knows what science is.
Desmogblog is for clowns who already are true believers who avidly sick down the constant crap they push.
Ye gods, desmogblog…
No wonder you are so spectacularly scientifically illiterate!
Now go and apologise to you-know-who, you slanderous little liar.
Great, let’s have a discussion on whether there is a GHE. That ought to be good for at least 1000 comments.
The website windy.com has excellent animated renderings of both the GFS and European models. I pray for the people in its path and will ignore the predictable Jeremiads from he AGW people.
Of grave concern for Floridians, especially should Irma get into the Gulf before turning Northwards. The potential for storm surge damage from the Keys to Tampa-St-Pete is ginormous.
That is what I think will happen. Tampa Bay magnification of dirty side storm surge will be very bad.
Cool satellite animation of Irma . http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10848&y=10848&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
Terrific video. Also check out frontal boundary entering NC and VA.
Be patient. Takes a while to load.
We also have a strengthening La Nina as well. Which makes the Atlantic have a more active Hurricane Season.
Crickety, it looks like another if forming off Africa before this one hits! argh….
You know – it’s been a while (1-2 years) since I’ve read comments here at WIWT and have to ask: when did the comment field become a Reddit smart ass-style of comment infused with religious and political bashing?
This used to be a place for technical discussion. What has happened? Where have the manners gone?
I suspect some comment fields lend themselves better to snarkiness than others do. This one is a perfect example. The direction the hurricane will take is based on chaos. We know all the high level events affecting the path, such as the Atlantic high and the impressive cold front in the continental U.S. We also know that there is limited wind shear. What we don’t know, because of the chaotic nature of the system, is the actual path. This leads to non technical conversation, since no one really knows.
Then of course, in the last year, the warmists have become a bit more drive by in their comments. I have only just started posting here but I have been reading this blog for at least 7 years and I have noticed that since the U.S has pulled out of the Paris (unratified) Treaty the warmists have become almost dishonest in their postings. That, however may just be a symptom of the heightened tensions in the U.S. between liberals and conservatives.
Frankly, I think religious and political leaning is unimportant, except where those leanings unduly influence thought in regards to policy on AGW.
As to manners? Well, manners only work when all parties agree to use them.
Warmunistas have always been dishonest.
Dear Andrew Cooke your comment at 11:59 sept 5 “But we will not know how bad it is till it is a day out from landfall on the US coast”
In the meantime several islands would have already been subjected to the Hurracane’s destruction of life and property. They will be trying to do the best to recover, but from your comment and to some extent much of the argument is about the US not the USA but US.
Andrew don’t these islanders matter to you?
Ron
They matter. How are you going to move the hurricane? (And, by the way) the Clinton’s earned some 100 million net profits for their “charitable foundation” by re-routing funding and donations to Haiti after a hurricane. And never sent any of it to the Haitian people.
Global wind map. https://earth.nullschool.net/
Looks like it cross the anilles and head WxSW into the Caribbean. From there to slam into Honduras.
Thank you Walter. While it does not give projections, the earth.nullschool gives a beautiful picture of wind fields, moisture content, temperature, and wind speed.
Stan.. it makes projections up to 5 days into the future, if you use the arrows. You can also wind it backward, and look at the history.
I note that many here do not realize that the wind map is a simulation, not the actual wind measurements. It is generated on one of the supercomputers that float around modeling things. Some of the data points are real, but the vectors are the results of simulations.
I am no expert on hurricanes or any weather for that matter, but with earth.nullschool, I can clearly see the intensity of the wind fields unhyped by the various media hypesters. True, it is a simulation, but a simulation based on current data coming from the weather satellite and updated every few hours.
If it takes out Florida it’s karma for this guy’s existence…. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/harvey/2017/08/29/florida-professor-fired-calling-harvey-instant-karma-fortexans-voting-republican