Hurricane #Irma just entered "Beast Mode" – satellite estimates Cat5

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says tonight:

Oh my … Hurricane just entered “beast mode” … incredible convection flaring. Satellite estimates now > T 7.0 and Category 5.

He adds:

There it is T 7.0 140-knots Category 5 satellite estimate from ADT (raw) GOES-16:

Tonight’s will likely put Hurricane 120-hour location over or very near tip of South Florida. Begin preparation steps.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK (From NHC)

——————————

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by

an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.6 North,

longitude 56.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph

(20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today,

followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over

portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early

Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that

the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (235

km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is

possible during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140

miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure just estimated from a Hurricane Hunter

plane was 939 mb (27.73 inches).

Irma’s projected location on Sunday Morning:

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September 4, 2017 11:13 pm

We’ve got a situation.

scraft1
Reply to  Pat Childs
September 5, 2017 6:18 am

We always have a “situation”. Life is a “situation”. Would you care to be more specific?

crackers345
Reply to  scraft1
September 13, 2017 8:11 am

a situation that can kill
you more quickly and easily
than life usually presents.

jesusdidntgiveuponme
September 4, 2017 11:17 pm

That is a Monster of a storm! Praying for everyone affected by it.

Melvyn Dackombe
Reply to  jesusdidntgiveuponme
September 5, 2017 5:45 am

What good are prayers going to do.

tom s
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 5:54 am

Nothing. But it makes people feel better and worthy. But that’s about it unfortunately.

Go Home
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 5:56 am

thanks for the sentiment Mel, now foff.

scraft1
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 6:20 am

“What good are prayers going to do”. What do you know?

Melvyn Dackombe
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 6:20 am

For ‘ Go Home ‘ below.
My question was serious and I appreciate your highly technical and in depth reply.

Sheri
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 6:36 am

What good do sarcastic atheists do?

afonzarelli
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 6:45 am

Sheri… +1

Ellen
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 7:11 am

If you are going to have virtue-signalling, prayers are more harmless than most. And who knows? They might work.

Roger Hall
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 5, 2017 12:48 pm

You are so right. You might as well pee into the wind that is coming – that will have the same effect upon the storm.

jesusdidntgiveuponme
Reply to  Roger Hall
September 5, 2017 4:09 pm

It can’t hurt! Just because you don’t believe don’t criticize those who do!

Katy Fort
Reply to  Melvyn Dackombe
September 7, 2017 3:33 am

God is powerful, and praying does so a lot. God will choose to listen, and if he does people will be safe. (:

ralfellis
Reply to  jesusdidntgiveuponme
September 5, 2017 6:40 am

>>Praying for everyone….
If god had any influence, she would reduce the winds to just 10 miles an hour. The fact that she will not do this tells us that this god is either:
a. Ineffectual or incompetent, and cannot even control the weather, let alone anything else.
b. Not always present, and goes off on long holidays elsewhere in the universe. She must be a busy lady, after all.
c. A malevolent deity who likes stirring things up, like a child poking an ant-nest to see the ants scurry around repairing their nest.
So which is it??
Ralph

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  ralfellis
September 5, 2017 7:02 am

Don’t atheists have anything better to do than be snarky when someone says they are praying for someone or something?
You do realize that it appears to be a Pavlovian response? Ring the bell and bam, you’re frothing at the mouth.
Eh, let it go. If their prayers are heard, great. If not, no harm no foul.

timg56
Reply to  ralfellis
September 5, 2017 7:43 am

You forgot d) someone who loves even his most idi0t children, whether they mock him or not.

Matthew Benefiel
Reply to  ralfellis
September 5, 2017 8:58 am

Well Ralph, first we must break down your own assumptions. First, based on your first sentence, is that you expect god to stop a natural cycle just because it will affect humans, how very self centered of you, though in all honesty we are all self centered in our nature, so we all expect god to do something just because it affects us. Second, you assume a gender, so already you have placed said god in your own little image box, once again something we are all prone to do. Perhaps, instead of trying to state a “fact” upon something you seem to know little about, you should ask the question instead: “If god created everything and has control over these processes and laws, why doesn’t he/she/it stop it?” It’s a good question, but what is the true answer, and if there is a true answer, would you even accept it? If not, it may be better to not ask the question at all and live in ignorance of whether there is a god or not. If that offends, then I’m afraid you have a nerve that is easily struck and might be worth exploring why someone’s prayers bothers you so much.

scraft1
Reply to  ralfellis
September 5, 2017 9:37 am

Thank you Anthony Watts

Gloateus
Reply to  ralfellis
September 5, 2017 9:42 am

My prayers are always answered because they’re always the same, “Thy will be done”.

CodeTech
September 4, 2017 11:36 pm

I’m sincerely hoping a lot of that energy dissipates as it goes over PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba, preferably with no loss of life.

Greg
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 12:26 am

LOL, hurricane denial syndrome.
I’m sure we’d all “hope” for the same , and then there is reality.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 1:19 am

This looks like a definite end the 12 y lull in ACE. To judge by the end of last ‘hurricane hiatus” just after WWII, there is going to be a serious ramping up of activity in the next few years, to levels somewhat highter than before it started in 2005.
This may also be a signal that we are about to come out of the warming “hiatus” and into a period of Atlantic cooling. There is also a clue of that in Arctic sea ice recovery from the 2012 OMG low.comment image

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 1:21 am

BTW, there was some under-counting of ACE during WWII but the trough was probably real and is strikingly similar to the present lull .

vukcevic
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 5:16 am

strangely enough the sub-Arctic atmospheric pressure ‘predicted’ both hiatus and the end of it
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AHA.gif
(most likely coincidence, but on the other hand …… )

higley7
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 5:59 am

Greg is right, but he does not mention that it is a cooling atmosphere that makes the still warm Atlantic that serves as the heat source for hurricane. It’s the temperature differential that creates the heat engine of these cyclones.

Sheri
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 6:37 am

Hope is fine, as long as you back it up with preparation in case the hoped for effect does not arrive. Just hoping and nothing more is a problem.

ralfellis
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 6:44 am

Greg – I presume your cyclone energy plot is inverted, yes??
R

scraft1
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 9:43 am

Greg – “and then there is reality”. It’s always nice to have a specialist on “reality”.Thanks for the comment.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 12:47 pm

ralfellis September 5, 2017 at 6:44 am

“Greg – I presume your cyclone energy plot is inverted, yes??”

Not sure what that comment is supposed to mean but there is a URL to the data source on the graph if you want to go and check whether it is the right way up.

Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 1:34 am

Don’t panic. This is not important, it has happened before, errrr….. last week in fact. So what ever happens, as long as it has happened before, it has no significance and means nothing. Incidentally Irma appears to be headed towards the Orange ones HQ. Maybe there is a God after all. 🙂

Greg
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 2:20 am

Two only a week apart, that was unprecedented in the last 12 years ! 12 year gap was unprecedented but we’ll ignore that.
If you don’t like hurricanes , don’t live in the tropics.

gnome
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 2:37 am

Hey Greg – no-one who lives in any US state does live in the tropics

David A
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 2:44 am

Idiotic straw man comment.

David A
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 2:44 am

…to Gareth

hunter
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 2:51 am

Gareth, ignorance seems to fit you nearly as well as vindictiveness.
Pettiness and vicious meanness are clearly right up there as well.

Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 4:10 am

Thanks Gnome and David ! You elegantly demonstrate my hypothesis that many US sceptics do not understand satire.
As a result, a sceptic owes me a pint of Bass tonight Cheers.

richard
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 4:16 am

Errrrr- its happened before but worse.
Back in 1886 there were 12 that year- two were cat 4s.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 4:25 am

The troll’s ignorance is only possibly exceeded by his viciousness. But it’s a hit-and-run troll.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 5:48 am

Gnome: residents, of Hawaii live in the tropics.

Sheri
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 6:38 am

Really, invoke God when it pleases your adolescent psyche? You look like a fool.

Mike
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 6:52 am

Gareth,
The problem is that your satire is the belief of many people; see their comments on this site and others. I can name several people I know that believe to be truthful that which you write as satire. I am not one of them, but I do argue with these people (friends and family).

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 7:05 am

So Gareth, let’s clarify what you are saying.
Are you REALLY saying this has NEVER happened before?
Or…….are you just a typical AGW Troll?

Gil
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 8:37 am

Gareth, am I supposed to know what “Orange ones” refers to?

Bob boder
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 9:06 am

Ya Gareth, do you think Trump will be there when it hits? Oh that’s right there will be real people there get their lives destroyed. This is pretty much the worst comment you have ever made here.

Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 10:56 am

Sadly my tongue in cheek comment seems to have upset the usual punters. However, it was a bit of satire on the usual responses to climatalogical disasters like this where posters queue up to explain it means nothing, it has happened before and therefore it is of no significance. This is shortly before the right wing Alex Jones fans come out , fists swinging accusing all and sundry of being “warmunists” and other such nonsense. Of course these daft comments don’t raise the same sort of ire as my jabs. Not sure why.
Maybe I am hitting sensitive spots? Maybe I will never have Griff’s ability to go for the jugular, but the responses to my post show I am heading in the right direction. Many thanks to you all for following my posts so carefully. I promise I will try and maintain a modicum of input.
Meanwhile lets hope the people of the Caribbean have some resilience to this looming disaster born of experience.

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 11:59 am

Gareth, now that’s just funny. Griff? Go for the jugular? Heh, LOL!
I just finished laughing out loud at the top story and now you just keep me laughing.
So, Gareth, is this one REALLY the end of the world? Heh. You just need an uncut beard and a signboard.
For the record, this is a bad one. But we won’t really know how bad till it is about a day out from landfall on the US coast. There is too much between here and there to know for sure. And……we don’t know whether or not it has anything to do with global warming, just like we don’t know if the previous 12 year drought has anything to do with global warming. We can guess…..but sheesh, that’s not science.

Mark
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 1:06 pm

Gareth, I think most people here understood it was satire. The problem is that you satired a strawman. When you see claims of “unprecedented” being refuted here, it’s only to say that it can’t be used as proof of cagw if it has happend in the past (pre 1950 or so). I’ve certainly never seen anyone make the argument that because something isn’t unprecedented, it can’t be important or dangerous.

Mark
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 1:35 pm

Satired was supposed to br satirized.
1) write
2) post
3) proofread
Looks wrong, but it must be right because that’s how I always do it.

catweazle666
Reply to  Gareth Phillips
September 5, 2017 4:48 pm

“Gareth, ignorance seems to fit you nearly as well as vindictiveness.”
Gareth is a self-confessed Socialist.
That’s all you need to know.

Bryan A
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 5:25 am

Probably not much dampening from Haiti. They have cut down most of their vibration dampening CO2 scrubbers

2hotel9
Reply to  Bryan A
September 5, 2017 5:58 am

It is alright! The DR side of the island still has plenty of trees. Haiti will have massive mudslides and flooding, casualties will be high, disease will run rampant, the UN will decry the state of affairs and demand America give them more money and the Clinton Crime Syndicate will illicit another barrel of donations which will not go to help the children of Haiti again, still.

tom s
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 5:55 am

Current track keeps it north of those Tropical Cylone shredders unfortunately.

leopoldo Perdomo
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 6:12 am

this must be a green energy after all. They only had to harness it and domesticate it

(::
Reply to  CodeTech
September 7, 2017 3:37 am

Me too, but just keep praying <3

ren
September 4, 2017 11:44 pm

Hurricane IRMA
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:
Location: 16.7°N 55.1°W
Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: 145 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb

ren
September 4, 2017 11:50 pm
ren
Reply to  ren
September 4, 2017 11:58 pm

High solar activity increases the energy of the jet stream in the north (accelerates it).

Greg
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 12:28 am

what sort of “activity” are we talking about here?

ren
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 1:48 am
ren
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 2:44 am
Greg
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 12:32 am

Useful link, there seems to be a strong front pushing down from NW, that may help protect Florida a bit and hold the storm off.

tom s
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 5:56 am

Unfortunately, probably not.

Jeff L
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 7:15 am

Actually, just the opposite as the trough is also amping up the ridge to the east & the hurricane & riding the south edge of the ridge, pushing the storm west towards FLA & decreasing the possibility of re-curve prior to hitting the US

scraft1
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 9:49 am

JeffL, please explain what a “ridge” is. Is it simply a frontal boundary?

billw1984
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 6:13 am

September is the worst month in the Atlantic/Gulf, followed by August and October. All three have a lot more hurricanes than July, November.

vukcevic
September 5, 2017 12:30 am

Looking at Irma five or six days ago, it’s early progress prompted me to say:
“It’s storm on steroids. At this rate it will be a major hurricane in few days. It could devastate some of the poorest Caribbean islands if they get in her way. Let’s hope that it blows itself out before any land contact.”
No chance of it blowing itself out; wish best of luck to all that may find themselves in the Irma’s path.

R John Muench
September 5, 2017 12:33 am

Might need mass evacuation of 1 – 3M people from the Keys up to and including Miami. Just sent advice to my friend who has a student at “The U”. I wonder what advice they are giving?

Greg
Reply to  R John Muench
September 5, 2017 12:52 am

Run! Run now !

john
Reply to  R John Muench
September 5, 2017 4:43 am

To go out and protest Irma in the streets.

philincalifornia
Reply to  john
September 5, 2017 4:53 am

Oooooh, that’s not nice. Funny, and wishful thinking too, but not nice …….

tom s
Reply to  john
September 5, 2017 6:00 am

Plug in some LED’s and get a Prius, quick. That’ll weaken ‘er!

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  john
September 5, 2017 7:07 am

Maybe Antifa can organize to lay a whoopin’ on Irma.

Greg
September 5, 2017 12:56 am

I hope Trump has someone putting sandbags around Mar-a-Lago 😉
The depth of the central depression is going to produce some serious storm surge. MSM will already be preparing a series of alternative “we told you so” articles to cover what ever happens next.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 12:58 am

BTW doesn’t Mar-a-Lago means something like “swamp lake” ?

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 1:02 am

OK, it means sea by the lake or sea lake , sounds a bit “floodable”. No?

MRW
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 1:03 am

No. It means sea by the lake.

MRW
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 1:08 am

Mar-a-Lago’s been around for what? Since the 1930s? It’s been through Andrew and a bunch of other hurricanes.

Gloateus
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 11:09 am

It literally means “Sea to Lake”.

Gloateus
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 11:12 am

MRW,
Yup, Mar a Lago survived Cat 5 Andrew. Let’s hope that Irma doesn’t pass over the whole length of FL, rather than just crossing south FL, as did Andrew.

Doug Huffman
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 4:53 am

Nyaah. I am sure that he has insurance.

Sheri
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 6:40 am

Unless the useless hurricane has the audacity to change course and miss Florida. In which case the MSM will be devastated instead of Florida. Win/win in my book.

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 7:09 am

Ooh, Liberals rejoicing at other’s calamity for political gain. That’s nothing new.

Reply to  Greg
September 5, 2017 9:20 am

Speaking of storm surge, there is also a Full Moon for the next 3 days.

2hotel9
Reply to  goldminor
September 5, 2017 7:57 pm

A point I did not realize until about an hour ago, lots of balls in the air. As it were.

Leo Smith
September 5, 2017 12:56 am

Worst thing is, this will push public consciousness towards the global warming meme.
That will do far far more damage than Irma will directly.

MRW
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 5, 2017 1:00 am

Guess you didn’t see the Bill Nye segment on the Tucker Carlson Show Monday night.

CodeTech
Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 3:12 am

Hah!
That guy doesn’t even realize how astoundingly ignorant he sounds. And to be honest, I hear my brother saying the same things.
Incidentally, he (my brother) has never hear of “Michael Mann” or other prominent alarmists, doesn’t even realize that there is the slightest controversy about the hockey stick, and is clueless about what “peer review” even means, but feels obligated to make patronizing proclamations, constantly.
It’s so sad what “science” has become.

MRW
Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 3:31 am

Code Tech,
Even sadder the cadre of genuinely scientifically illiterate journalists reporting on these self-proclaimed scientific poobahs for people like your brother.
That was the brilliance of journalists like Nigel Calder and Matt Ridley, who had the credentials.

philincalifornia
Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 4:59 am

I got talking to a guy I’d never met before in a bar here in N. Cal., and he started lamenting to me about the state of the nation. He said “You know that Trump’s pick for the head of the EPA doesn’t even believe in science”? I know it’s shame on them, but how is it possible that seemingly educated human beings can fall for these parrot-brain, leftybollox slogans?

Marv
Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 5:13 am

“… seemingly educated human beings …”
There’s your answer.

Mayor of Venus
Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 12:18 pm

I saw that segment….thought Tucker was poorly prepared when Nye claimed the usual “settled science”. Tucker could have named a few prominent non-alarmist climate scientists such as Roy Spencer whose job actually involves measuring and analyzing satellite data.

tom s
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 5, 2017 6:05 am

Exploit to the unwashed masses they will. “Hey I got an idea, let’s exploit hurricanes, natural phenom that has occurred for millions of years and blame everyone of them on mankind. Yeah, that’s the ticket! (so many gullible people to be taken advantage of, RIGHT ALGOREHANSENMANN et al?

MRW
September 5, 2017 12:59 am

Joe Bastardi was been worried about this for over a week. weatherbell.com/premium. Free daily update on right.

Rasmussen
September 5, 2017 1:08 am

My wife and i were living on St. Martin when hurricane Luis struck on 4th and 5th of september 1995 . It was pretty bad then . Hopefully preparations will be completed in time … Irma looks too close to miss the island .
Our thoughts are with everyone there , best of luck to you .

MRW
September 5, 2017 1:10 am

Ristvan, que pasa in Fort Lauderdale?

Reply to  MRW
September 5, 2017 7:47 am

At this point, just watchful waiting. Each new ensemble makes the north turn a bit further west. We might see TS force winds. I am laying in extra supplies today; go bag is ready if we need to evacuate (unlikely at this point). My hunch is Naples, Sarasota, and Tampa are in for a very rough time.

arthur4563
September 5, 2017 2:17 am

I doubt that any Cane will equal Camille , 1969. I well remember that storm, which had perhaps the longest path of destruction ever – came ashore in Mississippi and went north into Virginia, which it flooded enormously and continued north. Max winds of 175 MPH , pressure 900 MB makes Irma look tame. Killed 259 people. Naturally, every generation thinks the events it faces are “unprecedented.” They are not, at least not this time.

hunter
Reply to  arthur4563
September 5, 2017 2:47 am

Camille was the gold standard in terrible storms.
The only thing that made it less terrible was that it was a compact storm and that it did not linger.
It’s actual top speed according to the wind meter at Keesler AFB was 200 mph, by the way.

ren
September 5, 2017 2:19 am

The course is still western. Differential pressure 72 mb.
Hurricane IRMA
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:
Location: 16.6°N 56.4°W
Maximum Winds: 125 kt Gusts: 150 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb

arthur4563
September 5, 2017 2:22 am

The media has an intrinsic motivation to exaggerate any event which it covers. Has always been this way. It’s the nature of the beast. Only occasionally do we encounter calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events.

Marv
Reply to  arthur4563
September 5, 2017 5:17 am

“Only occasionally do we encounter calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events.”
Ratings, its all about ratings. Calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events do not get the ratings that thoughtless, unbalanced and irrational coverage of events generate.

Marv
Reply to  Marv
September 5, 2017 5:24 am

Interestingly, what the MSM presents to the general public are usually stories of pain and tragedy while the stories people send to each other on Facebook are usually uplifting.

Sheri
Reply to  Marv
September 5, 2017 6:44 am

Ratings lead to faux news. Choosing only the crises that draw the largest number of viewers. The news becomes Jerry Springer and Maury. Not news at all. Just an endless parade of failures.

2hotel9
Reply to  Sheri
September 5, 2017 7:39 pm

It bleeds? It leads. Morals, facts, or reality be damned.

Rob
Reply to  Marv
September 5, 2017 6:53 am

Good news is no news – to the media.

tom s
Reply to  arthur4563
September 5, 2017 6:11 am

I will waste not 1 min of my time watching any of these fools. I’ll read, not watch.

hunter
September 5, 2017 2:42 am

The hurricane drought is over.
Perhaps building so much at sea,level and next to known sources of flooding will turn out Rob a strategy we will abandon, or at least modify.
But that discussion is for another day.
Right now our thoughts and hopes go out to our fellow Americans. In S Florida, facing a likely very tough time.
God speed you all and stay safe.
May your preparations be sufficient.
We’ll be there for you.

David A
September 5, 2017 2:56 am

The latest…
.CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 924.5mb/143.0kt

CodeTech
September 5, 2017 3:18 am

So as I’ve been saying for years now, when hurricanes return everyone will point their fingers at “climate change”.
Maybe we need a post documenting several of the more active hurricane years to remind people what COULD happen within the range of normal “climate”. How about 1992? Or if that’s too recent, look at 1961, or 1950. 1900, anyone?

Eustace Cranch
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 5:16 am

The deadliest hurricane is history was in 1780. 20,000+ killed.A record not likely to be broken, ever.

Ray in SC
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 9:02 am

Eustace, Where did the 1780 storm hit?

Gloateus
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 9:59 am
Gloateus
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 10:01 am

The deadly hurricane season of 1780 played a role in the American Revolutionary War.

Ray in SC
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 10:34 am

Thanks Gloateus!

Gloateus
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 10:44 am

You’re welcome.
The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 was a Cat 4. It was likely the most intense hurricane to hit New England since European colonization.
The Great Hurricane of 1780 was a Cat 5. Maybe a “6”.

Ron
Reply to  Eustace Cranch
September 5, 2017 6:11 pm

About half of those that died were on woden ship the British and the French navies were trying to anialate each other. But we’re caught without climate models and airplanes that can look down and project the path of the storm. All your comment proves is that there have been safety improvements at sea since the days of wooden sailing ships.

tom s
Reply to  CodeTech
September 5, 2017 6:13 am

The general public is naive and easily swayed especially with accomplice’s in the media and leftist/activist/marxist “scientists”. I just tune out. Can’t take it. I come here for levity.
30yr in the field meteorologist.

ren
September 5, 2017 3:46 am
Curious George
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 7:41 am

I don’t believe they can measure this directly. It must be a model. What data does the model use?

scraft1
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 9:54 am

Curious George. Good point.

September 5, 2017 3:50 am

Puerto Rico . . .
You ugly island . . .
Island of tropic diseases.
Always the hurricanes blowing,
Always the population growing . . .
Lyrics from West Side Story.
1957

ren
September 5, 2017 4:07 am

Current position of hurricane.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00930/rx9zl2kvom21.png

September 5, 2017 4:57 am

lots of warm water.
how did that happen

rbabcock
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:06 am

Oh let me guess.. it’s in the tropics?

Curious George
Reply to  rbabcock
September 5, 2017 7:44 am

Hurricanes never happened before evil civilization poisoned the atmosphere with evil CO2.

Eustace Cranch
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:09 am

The same process that heated the water in 1775, 1780, 1813, 1893, 1900, 1928, and 1969.
Of course you know that but you couldn’t resist the pointless snark.

tom s
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:14 am

Gee, musta been my use of AC this summer. Sorry about that.

scraft1
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:29 am

It’s summertime Steve. It’s hot out.

MarkW
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:45 am

It’s summer. Happens every year. Perhaps you’ve heard of it?

Ian W
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 6:52 am

It certainly did not get warm from downwelling infrared. Even you Stephen can work out how many joules would be required for that warmth and realize that the idea that a few watts of infrared penetrating a few microns into the water can raise ocean temperatures to the levels they are at. It is an impossibility. How do you live with the cognitive dissonance?

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 7:12 am

You know Mosher, if you could convince your heroes Al Gore and Michael Mann to stop using their AC units, SUVs, airplanes, and be vegans, this might not be happening.

sy computing
Reply to  Andrew Cooke
September 5, 2017 8:57 am

Andrew Cooke said – “…and be vegans…”
Or not.
Lettuce is ‘three times worse than bacon’ for emissions and vegetarian diets could be bad for environment
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vegetarian-diet-bad-for-environment-meat-study-lettuce-three-times-worse-emissions-bacon-a6773671.html
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10669-015-9577-y

Mark
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 5, 2017 11:56 am

Mosher, looks like you got a lot of good answers. I hope you’ll use some of what you learned here in your models. And remember, there’s no such thing as a dumb question, so feel free to come back next time you’re having trouble.

Latitude
September 5, 2017 5:02 am

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says tonight:….and this morning most of the models have shifted west again

Reply to  Latitude
September 5, 2017 7:49 am

For whichnI am personally grateful.

MRW
Reply to  ristvan
September 5, 2017 10:42 pm

So are we, ristvan, when it comes to you.

2hotel9
September 5, 2017 5:10 am

ren? I have been watching this track for last 3 hours, http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5 and damn if I can see any northward drift yet. If she does I think she will move over south FLA and into the Gulf. Holding current course she may go back over water after PR/DR landfalls and move into Caribbean proper.

ren
Reply to  2hotel9
September 5, 2017 7:04 am

Yes, it will.
Hurricane IRMA
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:
Location: 16.7°N 57.8°W

2hotel9
Reply to  ren
September 5, 2017 7:40 pm

I hate being right. I really do.

ren
Reply to  2hotel9
September 5, 2017 7:39 am

The pattern is typical.comment image

Khwarizmi
September 5, 2017 5:18 am

A new toy was conveniently made available today that allows you to see the action, near live, via GOES16 (or Himawari 8), full disc, Geocolor:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

tom s
Reply to  Khwarizmi
September 5, 2017 6:18 am

Nice.

scraft1
Reply to  Khwarizmi
September 5, 2017 6:31 am

Cool. Thanks.

Reply to  Khwarizmi
September 5, 2017 9:27 am

Very nice +10.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Khwarizmi
September 5, 2017 3:44 pm

Annnnnnd, it looks like there is another system forming to the east of Irma. >:-p

MRW
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 5, 2017 10:43 pm

Yeah, Bastardi says something beginning with J.

richard verney
September 5, 2017 5:50 am

Maybe something for the Tips and Notes, but there has been a recently published paper that casts doubt on the GHE. It carried out an empirical experiment to ascertain the effect 9if any)
See: A Novel Investigation about the Thermal Behaviour of Gases under the Influence of IR-Radiation: A Further Argument against the Greenhouse Thesis
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-novel-investigation-about-the-thermal-behaviour-of-gases-under-theinfluence-of-irradiation-a-further-argument-against-the-greenh-2157-7617-1000393.pdf
Hopefully, this paper will be discussed in this site.

Griff
Reply to  richard verney
September 5, 2017 6:55 am

Hopefully it won’t, as this site is for discussion on climate science and that’s not what that is.
Please see:
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/11/new-sham-journal-OMICS-climate-science-denier-ties-heartland-institute

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  Griff
September 5, 2017 7:15 am

Hah, Griff, of all the sources I would trust for information…..desmogblog is on the bottom of the list. Not to say what they say is or is not true, I would just never click on that link to even check the veracity. There are other Warmist blogs that aren’t so……..eh, I won’t say it.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Griff
September 5, 2017 7:23 am

Hilarious that Griffie thinks he knows what science is.

timg56
Reply to  Griff
September 5, 2017 7:56 am

Desmogblog is for clowns who already are true believers who avidly sick down the constant crap they push.

catweazle666
Reply to  Griff
September 5, 2017 4:53 pm

Ye gods, desmogblog…
No wonder you are so spectacularly scientifically illiterate!
Now go and apologise to you-know-who, you slanderous little liar.

scraft1
Reply to  richard verney
September 5, 2017 10:01 am

Great, let’s have a discussion on whether there is a GHE. That ought to be good for at least 1000 comments.

D P Laurable
September 5, 2017 5:53 am

The website windy.com has excellent animated renderings of both the GFS and European models. I pray for the people in its path and will ignore the predictable Jeremiads from he AGW people.

eqibno
September 5, 2017 5:57 am

Of grave concern for Floridians, especially should Irma get into the Gulf before turning Northwards. The potential for storm surge damage from the Keys to Tampa-St-Pete is ginormous.

Reply to  eqibno
September 5, 2017 7:51 am

That is what I think will happen. Tampa Bay magnification of dirty side storm surge will be very bad.

scraft1
Reply to  eqibno
September 5, 2017 10:07 am

Terrific video. Also check out frontal boundary entering NC and VA.
Be patient. Takes a while to load.

Thunder98
September 5, 2017 6:38 am

We also have a strengthening La Nina as well. Which makes the Atlantic have a more active Hurricane Season.

September 5, 2017 7:12 am

Crickety, it looks like another if forming off Africa before this one hits! argh….

LearDog
September 5, 2017 7:24 am

You know – it’s been a while (1-2 years) since I’ve read comments here at WIWT and have to ask: when did the comment field become a Reddit smart ass-style of comment infused with religious and political bashing?
This used to be a place for technical discussion. What has happened? Where have the manners gone?

Andrew Cooke
Reply to  LearDog
September 5, 2017 9:17 am

I suspect some comment fields lend themselves better to snarkiness than others do. This one is a perfect example. The direction the hurricane will take is based on chaos. We know all the high level events affecting the path, such as the Atlantic high and the impressive cold front in the continental U.S. We also know that there is limited wind shear. What we don’t know, because of the chaotic nature of the system, is the actual path. This leads to non technical conversation, since no one really knows.
Then of course, in the last year, the warmists have become a bit more drive by in their comments. I have only just started posting here but I have been reading this blog for at least 7 years and I have noticed that since the U.S has pulled out of the Paris (unratified) Treaty the warmists have become almost dishonest in their postings. That, however may just be a symptom of the heightened tensions in the U.S. between liberals and conservatives.
Frankly, I think religious and political leaning is unimportant, except where those leanings unduly influence thought in regards to policy on AGW.
As to manners? Well, manners only work when all parties agree to use them.

Gloateus
Reply to  Andrew Cooke
September 5, 2017 10:17 am

Warmunistas have always been dishonest.

Ron
Reply to  Andrew Cooke
September 5, 2017 6:01 pm

Dear Andrew Cooke your comment at 11:59 sept 5 “But we will not know how bad it is till it is a day out from landfall on the US coast”
In the meantime several islands would have already been subjected to the Hurracane’s destruction of life and property. They will be trying to do the best to recover, but from your comment and to some extent much of the argument is about the US not the USA but US.
Andrew don’t these islanders matter to you?

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Ron
September 5, 2017 6:37 pm

Ron

Andrew don’t these islanders matter to you?

They matter. How are you going to move the hurricane? (And, by the way) the Clinton’s earned some 100 million net profits for their “charitable foundation” by re-routing funding and donations to Haiti after a hurricane. And never sent any of it to the Haitian people.

Walter Sobchak
September 5, 2017 7:25 am

Global wind map. https://earth.nullschool.net/
Looks like it cross the anilles and head WxSW into the Caribbean. From there to slam into Honduras.

Stan Vinson
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
September 5, 2017 7:39 am

Thank you Walter. While it does not give projections, the earth.nullschool gives a beautiful picture of wind fields, moisture content, temperature, and wind speed.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Stan Vinson
September 5, 2017 9:42 am

Stan.. it makes projections up to 5 days into the future, if you use the arrows. You can also wind it backward, and look at the history.

wsbriggs
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
September 5, 2017 7:53 am

I note that many here do not realize that the wind map is a simulation, not the actual wind measurements. It is generated on one of the supercomputers that float around modeling things. Some of the data points are real, but the vectors are the results of simulations.

Stan Vinson
Reply to  wsbriggs
September 5, 2017 8:52 am

I am no expert on hurricanes or any weather for that matter, but with earth.nullschool, I can clearly see the intensity of the wind fields unhyped by the various media hypesters. True, it is a simulation, but a simulation based on current data coming from the weather satellite and updated every few hours.

Kenw
September 5, 2017 7:50 am
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