Hurricane #Irma just entered “Beast Mode” – satellite estimates Cat5

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says tonight:

Oh my … Hurricane just entered “beast mode” … incredible convection flaring. Satellite estimates now > T 7.0 and Category 5.

He adds:

There it is T 7.0 140-knots Category 5 satellite estimate from ADT (raw) GOES-16:

Tonight’s will likely put Hurricane 120-hour location over or very near tip of South Florida. Begin preparation steps.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK (From NHC)
——————————
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.6 North,
longitude 56.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph
(20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over
portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early
Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (235
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure just estimated from a Hurricane Hunter
plane was 939 mb (27.73 inches).

Irma’s projected location on Sunday Morning:

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175 thoughts on “Hurricane #Irma just entered “Beast Mode” – satellite estimates Cat5

    • >>Praying for everyone….

      If god had any influence, she would reduce the winds to just 10 miles an hour. The fact that she will not do this tells us that this god is either:

      a. Ineffectual or incompetent, and cannot even control the weather, let alone anything else.

      b. Not always present, and goes off on long holidays elsewhere in the universe. She must be a busy lady, after all.

      c. A malevolent deity who likes stirring things up, like a child poking an ant-nest to see the ants scurry around repairing their nest.

      So which is it??

      Ralph

      • Don’t atheists have anything better to do than be snarky when someone says they are praying for someone or something?

        You do realize that it appears to be a Pavlovian response? Ring the bell and bam, you’re frothing at the mouth.

        Eh, let it go. If their prayers are heard, great. If not, no harm no foul.

      • Well Ralph, first we must break down your own assumptions. First, based on your first sentence, is that you expect god to stop a natural cycle just because it will affect humans, how very self centered of you, though in all honesty we are all self centered in our nature, so we all expect god to do something just because it affects us. Second, you assume a gender, so already you have placed said god in your own little image box, once again something we are all prone to do. Perhaps, instead of trying to state a “fact” upon something you seem to know little about, you should ask the question instead: “If god created everything and has control over these processes and laws, why doesn’t he/she/it stop it?” It’s a good question, but what is the true answer, and if there is a true answer, would you even accept it? If not, it may be better to not ask the question at all and live in ignorance of whether there is a god or not. If that offends, then I’m afraid you have a nerve that is easily struck and might be worth exploring why someone’s prayers bothers you so much.

  1. I’m sincerely hoping a lot of that energy dissipates as it goes over PR, DR, Haiti and Cuba, preferably with no loss of life.

      • This looks like a definite end the 12 y lull in ACE. To judge by the end of last ‘hurricane hiatus” just after WWII, there is going to be a serious ramping up of activity in the next few years, to levels somewhat highter than before it started in 2005.

        This may also be a signal that we are about to come out of the warming “hiatus” and into a period of Atlantic cooling. There is also a clue of that in Arctic sea ice recovery from the 2012 OMG low.

      • BTW, there was some under-counting of ACE during WWII but the trough was probably real and is strikingly similar to the present lull .

      • strangely enough the sub-Arctic atmospheric pressure ‘predicted’ both hiatus and the end of it

        (most likely coincidence, but on the other hand …… )

      • Greg is right, but he does not mention that it is a cooling atmosphere that makes the still warm Atlantic that serves as the heat source for hurricane. It’s the temperature differential that creates the heat engine of these cyclones.

      • Hope is fine, as long as you back it up with preparation in case the hoped for effect does not arrive. Just hoping and nothing more is a problem.

      • Greg – “and then there is reality”. It’s always nice to have a specialist on “reality”.Thanks for the comment.

      • ralfellis September 5, 2017 at 6:44 am

        “Greg – I presume your cyclone energy plot is inverted, yes??”

        Not sure what that comment is supposed to mean but there is a URL to the data source on the graph if you want to go and check whether it is the right way up.

    • Don’t panic. This is not important, it has happened before, errrr….. last week in fact. So what ever happens, as long as it has happened before, it has no significance and means nothing. Incidentally Irma appears to be headed towards the Orange ones HQ. Maybe there is a God after all. :)

      • Two only a week apart, that was unprecedented in the last 12 years ! 12 year gap was unprecedented but we’ll ignore that.

        If you don’t like hurricanes , don’t live in the tropics.

      • Gareth, ignorance seems to fit you nearly as well as vindictiveness.
        Pettiness and vicious meanness are clearly right up there as well.

      • Thanks Gnome and David ! You elegantly demonstrate my hypothesis that many US sceptics do not understand satire.
        As a result, a sceptic owes me a pint of Bass tonight Cheers.

      • Gareth,

        The problem is that your satire is the belief of many people; see their comments on this site and others. I can name several people I know that believe to be truthful that which you write as satire. I am not one of them, but I do argue with these people (friends and family).

      • So Gareth, let’s clarify what you are saying.

        Are you REALLY saying this has NEVER happened before?

        Or…….are you just a typical AGW Troll?

      • Ya Gareth, do you think Trump will be there when it hits? Oh that’s right there will be real people there get their lives destroyed. This is pretty much the worst comment you have ever made here.

      • Sadly my tongue in cheek comment seems to have upset the usual punters. However, it was a bit of satire on the usual responses to climatalogical disasters like this where posters queue up to explain it means nothing, it has happened before and therefore it is of no significance. This is shortly before the right wing Alex Jones fans come out , fists swinging accusing all and sundry of being “warmunists” and other such nonsense. Of course these daft comments don’t raise the same sort of ire as my jabs. Not sure why.
        Maybe I am hitting sensitive spots? Maybe I will never have Griff’s ability to go for the jugular, but the responses to my post show I am heading in the right direction. Many thanks to you all for following my posts so carefully. I promise I will try and maintain a modicum of input.
        Meanwhile lets hope the people of the Caribbean have some resilience to this looming disaster born of experience.

      • Gareth, now that’s just funny. Griff? Go for the jugular? Heh, LOL!

        I just finished laughing out loud at the top story and now you just keep me laughing.

        So, Gareth, is this one REALLY the end of the world? Heh. You just need an uncut beard and a signboard.

        For the record, this is a bad one. But we won’t really know how bad till it is about a day out from landfall on the US coast. There is too much between here and there to know for sure. And……we don’t know whether or not it has anything to do with global warming, just like we don’t know if the previous 12 year drought has anything to do with global warming. We can guess…..but sheesh, that’s not science.

      • Gareth, I think most people here understood it was satire. The problem is that you satired a strawman. When you see claims of “unprecedented” being refuted here, it’s only to say that it can’t be used as proof of cagw if it has happend in the past (pre 1950 or so). I’ve certainly never seen anyone make the argument that because something isn’t unprecedented, it can’t be important or dangerous.

      • Satired was supposed to br satirized.

        1) write
        2) post
        3) proofread

        Looks wrong, but it must be right because that’s how I always do it.

      • “Gareth, ignorance seems to fit you nearly as well as vindictiveness.”

        Gareth is a self-confessed Socialist.

        That’s all you need to know.

    • Probably not much dampening from Haiti. They have cut down most of their vibration dampening CO2 scrubbers

      • It is alright! The DR side of the island still has plenty of trees. Haiti will have massive mudslides and flooding, casualties will be high, disease will run rampant, the UN will decry the state of affairs and demand America give them more money and the Clinton Crime Syndicate will illicit another barrel of donations which will not go to help the children of Haiti again, still.

  2. Hurricane IRMA
    As of 00:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:

    Location: 16.7°N 55.1°W
    Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: 145 kt
    Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
    Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb

  3. Looking at Irma five or six days ago, it’s early progress prompted me to say:
    “It’s storm on steroids. At this rate it will be a major hurricane in few days. It could devastate some of the poorest Caribbean islands if they get in her way. Let’s hope that it blows itself out before any land contact.”
    No chance of it blowing itself out; wish best of luck to all that may find themselves in the Irma’s path.

  4. Might need mass evacuation of 1 – 3M people from the Keys up to and including Miami. Just sent advice to my friend who has a student at “The U”. I wonder what advice they are giving?

  5. I hope Trump has someone putting sandbags around Mar-a-Lago ;)

    The depth of the central depression is going to produce some serious storm surge. MSM will already be preparing a series of alternative “we told you so” articles to cover what ever happens next.

  6. Worst thing is, this will push public consciousness towards the global warming meme.

    That will do far far more damage than Irma will directly.

      • Hah!
        That guy doesn’t even realize how astoundingly ignorant he sounds. And to be honest, I hear my brother saying the same things.
        Incidentally, he (my brother) has never hear of “Michael Mann” or other prominent alarmists, doesn’t even realize that there is the slightest controversy about the hockey stick, and is clueless about what “peer review” even means, but feels obligated to make patronizing proclamations, constantly.

        It’s so sad what “science” has become.

      • Code Tech,

        Even sadder the cadre of genuinely scientifically illiterate journalists reporting on these self-proclaimed scientific poobahs for people like your brother.

        That was the brilliance of journalists like Nigel Calder and Matt Ridley, who had the credentials.

      • I got talking to a guy I’d never met before in a bar here in N. Cal., and he started lamenting to me about the state of the nation. He said “You know that Trump’s pick for the head of the EPA doesn’t even believe in science”? I know it’s shame on them, but how is it possible that seemingly educated human beings can fall for these parrot-brain, leftybollox slogans?

      • I saw that segment….thought Tucker was poorly prepared when Nye claimed the usual “settled science”. Tucker could have named a few prominent non-alarmist climate scientists such as Roy Spencer whose job actually involves measuring and analyzing satellite data.

    • Exploit to the unwashed masses they will. “Hey I got an idea, let’s exploit hurricanes, natural phenom that has occurred for millions of years and blame everyone of them on mankind. Yeah, that’s the ticket! (so many gullible people to be taken advantage of, RIGHT ALGOREHANSENMANN et al?

  7. My wife and i were living on St. Martin when hurricane Luis struck on 4th and 5th of september 1995 . It was pretty bad then . Hopefully preparations will be completed in time … Irma looks too close to miss the island .
    Our thoughts are with everyone there , best of luck to you .

    • At this point, just watchful waiting. Each new ensemble makes the north turn a bit further west. We might see TS force winds. I am laying in extra supplies today; go bag is ready if we need to evacuate (unlikely at this point). My hunch is Naples, Sarasota, and Tampa are in for a very rough time.

  8. I doubt that any Cane will equal Camille , 1969. I well remember that storm, which had perhaps the longest path of destruction ever – came ashore in Mississippi and went north into Virginia, which it flooded enormously and continued north. Max winds of 175 MPH , pressure 900 MB makes Irma look tame. Killed 259 people. Naturally, every generation thinks the events it faces are “unprecedented.” They are not, at least not this time.

    • Camille was the gold standard in terrible storms.
      The only thing that made it less terrible was that it was a compact storm and that it did not linger.
      It’s actual top speed according to the wind meter at Keesler AFB was 200 mph, by the way.

  9. The course is still western. Differential pressure 72 mb.
    Hurricane IRMA
    As of 06:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:

    Location: 16.6°N 56.4°W
    Maximum Winds: 125 kt Gusts: 150 kt
    Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb
    Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb

  10. The media has an intrinsic motivation to exaggerate any event which it covers. Has always been this way. It’s the nature of the beast. Only occasionally do we encounter calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events.

    • “Only occasionally do we encounter calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events.”

      Ratings, its all about ratings. Calm, thoughtful, balanced and rational coverage of events do not get the ratings that thoughtless, unbalanced and irrational coverage of events generate.

      • Interestingly, what the MSM presents to the general public are usually stories of pain and tragedy while the stories people send to each other on Facebook are usually uplifting.

      • Ratings lead to faux news. Choosing only the crises that draw the largest number of viewers. The news becomes Jerry Springer and Maury. Not news at all. Just an endless parade of failures.

  11. The hurricane drought is over.
    Perhaps building so much at sea,level and next to known sources of flooding will turn out Rob a strategy we will abandon, or at least modify.
    But that discussion is for another day.
    Right now our thoughts and hopes go out to our fellow Americans. In S Florida, facing a likely very tough time.
    God speed you all and stay safe.
    May your preparations be sufficient.
    We’ll be there for you.

  12. So as I’ve been saying for years now, when hurricanes return everyone will point their fingers at “climate change”.
    Maybe we need a post documenting several of the more active hurricane years to remind people what COULD happen within the range of normal “climate”. How about 1992? Or if that’s too recent, look at 1961, or 1950. 1900, anyone?

  13. Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says tonight:….and this morning most of the models have shifted west again

  14. Maybe something for the Tips and Notes, but there has been a recently published paper that casts doubt on the GHE. It carried out an empirical experiment to ascertain the effect 9if any)

    See: A Novel Investigation about the Thermal Behaviour of Gases under the Influence of IR-Radiation: A Further Argument against the Greenhouse Thesis

    https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-novel-investigation-about-the-thermal-behaviour-of-gases-under-theinfluence-of-irradiation-a-further-argument-against-the-greenh-2157-7617-1000393.pdf

    Hopefully, this paper will be discussed in this site.

  15. The website windy.com has excellent animated renderings of both the GFS and European models. I pray for the people in its path and will ignore the predictable Jeremiads from he AGW people.

  16. Of grave concern for Floridians, especially should Irma get into the Gulf before turning Northwards. The potential for storm surge damage from the Keys to Tampa-St-Pete is ginormous.

  17. We also have a strengthening La Nina as well. Which makes the Atlantic have a more active Hurricane Season.

  18. You know – it’s been a while (1-2 years) since I’ve read comments here at WIWT and have to ask: when did the comment field become a Reddit smart ass-style of comment infused with religious and political bashing?

    This used to be a place for technical discussion. What has happened? Where have the manners gone?

    • I suspect some comment fields lend themselves better to snarkiness than others do. This one is a perfect example. The direction the hurricane will take is based on chaos. We know all the high level events affecting the path, such as the Atlantic high and the impressive cold front in the continental U.S. We also know that there is limited wind shear. What we don’t know, because of the chaotic nature of the system, is the actual path. This leads to non technical conversation, since no one really knows.

      Then of course, in the last year, the warmists have become a bit more drive by in their comments. I have only just started posting here but I have been reading this blog for at least 7 years and I have noticed that since the U.S has pulled out of the Paris (unratified) Treaty the warmists have become almost dishonest in their postings. That, however may just be a symptom of the heightened tensions in the U.S. between liberals and conservatives.

      Frankly, I think religious and political leaning is unimportant, except where those leanings unduly influence thought in regards to policy on AGW.

      As to manners? Well, manners only work when all parties agree to use them.

      • Dear Andrew Cooke your comment at 11:59 sept 5 “But we will not know how bad it is till it is a day out from landfall on the US coast”

        In the meantime several islands would have already been subjected to the Hurracane’s destruction of life and property. They will be trying to do the best to recover, but from your comment and to some extent much of the argument is about the US not the USA but US.

        Andrew don’t these islanders matter to you?

      • Ron

        Andrew don’t these islanders matter to you?

        They matter. How are you going to move the hurricane? (And, by the way) the Clinton’s earned some 100 million net profits for their “charitable foundation” by re-routing funding and donations to Haiti after a hurricane. And never sent any of it to the Haitian people.

    • Thank you Walter. While it does not give projections, the earth.nullschool gives a beautiful picture of wind fields, moisture content, temperature, and wind speed.

      • Stan.. it makes projections up to 5 days into the future, if you use the arrows. You can also wind it backward, and look at the history.

    • I note that many here do not realize that the wind map is a simulation, not the actual wind measurements. It is generated on one of the supercomputers that float around modeling things. Some of the data points are real, but the vectors are the results of simulations.

      • I am no expert on hurricanes or any weather for that matter, but with earth.nullschool, I can clearly see the intensity of the wind fields unhyped by the various media hypesters. True, it is a simulation, but a simulation based on current data coming from the weather satellite and updated every few hours.

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