(Edited/updated) From NHC:
…EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS…
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE..
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey has
just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San
Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over
southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h)
and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h).
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 ending the “major hurricane drought” we have been experiencing in the USA.
#GOES16 captured this geocolor imagery of #Harvey as it nears landfall on the Texas coast. Get the latest info @ https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG pic.twitter.com/u0O9ChtJeP
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) August 26, 2017
#GOES16 captured this geocolor imagery of #Harvey2017 – now a category 3 storm – this afternoon. Latest info @ https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG pic.twitter.com/hGD22NpNTG
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) August 25, 2017
It is now 4324 days since Category 3 Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida on October 24th, 2005.
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/900740028665671680
Unreal … over 11 years with no landfall of a major.
They also estimate wind speed by pressure. Certain wind speeds are associated with certain pressures. Also, just looking at the latest satellite pics with a most impressive eye formed, the wind is strong with this one.
Now that the eye is on land, I am not seeing any surface sustained windspeeds higher than 80 MPH. Please chime in if you see one reported. Not from an airplane, and not a pressure proxy. Measured, sustained windspeed at 10metres elevation is what I want to see.
Yes, I agree.
I have a feeling that flooding will be the worst aspect here, not windspeed.Harvey is big and carrying a lot of water inland
Fulton Beach TX Wind 58, gusts to 74, top speed of 97 predicted (all in MPH).
So thus far Cat 1 on ground based readings.
Yes, the slow looping storm with long duration rain will be the problem.
Why problem? Although severe flooding is to be expected in the short term, Texas had an almost 15-year period of severe drought, meaning that the long-term effects of major rains would be beneficial to the water reserves of the state. Each medal has two sides, hurricanes are, at least for nature, also long-term for humans helpfull.
Who said Texas would have a permanent drought?
Many implied it, Hayhoe was one of them.
Note how it is not said, but implied.
So thus far Cat 1 on ground based readings.
Yes, the slow looping storm with long duration rain will be the problem.
NOAA calling a cat 4 landfall.
latest paths look like a wobble and then static SW of Austin.
Wet, wet, wet….
Here’s the problem. If NOAA is calling this a Cat-4 and it’s not on the ground and people are hanging around and doing selfies. What happens when a “real” Cat-4 comes ashore? This is where their alarmism will kick them in a$$.
NOAA wants it to be a CAT4 since they totally committed the the AGW BS.
They need to be challenged.
Fortunately, thanks to Al Gore’s internet, observers around the world can see the deceit.
Time for a congressional over site committee to look into this scam.
Joe Bastardi needs to help us.
EW3: Congressional oversight hearings accomplish nothing but a way for Congress to avoid doing actual work.
I am calling NOAA out on the Category 4 rating. There does not seem to be but one observation out of more than 900 to support a Category 3 rating. If this one single observation from Station ANPT2 at 8:42 PM at the bare minimum for the rating (96 knots) is disregarded, only a Category 2 rating would be justified for Hurricane Harvey. Observations are at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4. Where is the justification for a Category 4 rating? I am not pretending to minimize the danger or harm that a Hurricane like Harvey can/will cause to human beings and/or property. Otherwise, the Category ratings become meaningless.
You are right.
Do some key screen grabs.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260301
TCDAT4
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Harvey has continued to slowly strengthen since the last advisory.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated
700-mb flight-level winds near 130 kt, and there have been multiple
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of winds
of 110-115 kt. In addition, there have been winds of 135-150 kt
observed at 2500-3000 ft in the north eyewall by the Corpus Christi
WSR-88D. Based on these, Harvey is making landfall at this time as
a category 4 hurricane with winds near 115 kt.
In the end they may revise and call it a Cat3 based on 10 meter measurements
but the forecaster Beven called it a Cat4 based on 3 separate data sources (all above 10meters)
Wait till the dust settles and the flood waters drain.
without judgement. There is no need to go off half cocked.
Look at all the data. take your time.
From a warning standpoint?? ya I’d call it a CAT 4.
Mosher says…
From a warning standpoint?? ya I’d call it a CAT 4.”
—””’
What? What kind of test is that. So far it is a strong CAT 2 with one barely CAT 3 reading.
From a warning standpoint?? ya I’d call it a CAT 4….
..and then when people see how little actual damage was done….then what?….call it a cat 6 next time?
In a narrow area, it was cat 2. Otherwise, Cat1.
Comparisons to Carla seem to have disappeared once all of this became evident.
Extreme weather events like this one are part of the current climate so stopping climate change will not stop extreme weather events from happening. There is no know climate to change to that will put an end to extreme weather events. Maybe if we could just get rid of all of Earth’s atmosphere, high wind evernt would never happen but droughts would go on for ever and life on Earth would no longer exist.
This is video on the ground in the eyewall as it went through Rockport, TX, one of the hardest hit areas. A lot of damage. https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/vb.290340114630959/521430981521870/?type=2&theater
BUT NOAA IS LYING… Phil says so
BUT NOAA IS TELLING THE TRUTH…Steven says so.
Steven ==> Why do you lower yourself to arguing with children (and childlike minds) who troll here and say childish things? It is embarrassing to see a grown man squabbling with nasty-mouthed kids…..
…it’s even more embarrassing to see that grown man trolling like this
Phil said he cannot find ANY ground based readings above a very weak Cat 3.
Can you?
Mosher reaches CAT 4 troll.
No Sheri.
I merely report what data they made the call on.
They dont lie when they report the actual three systems, one of them air force.
You all expect real time perfection.. and then whine and esk for edit functions for your comments.
funny.
forecaster did his job. If they want to revise they will.
Kip
why do you remain silent when you see the slugs here attack forecasters who are scrambling in real time doing the best they can?
have you no honor?
I note that the Rockport weather station anemometer appears to have failed at 9pm CDT, just ahead of landfall:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=rcpt2
Top recorded gust was 94kts.
Gavin S. has said that climate is average weather.
In all technical seriousness, assuming that hurricanes arive every 5-10 years, how long does the sampling period need to be for the average to converge to its “steady state” level?
Failure to adopt a proper averaging period and failure to keep track of the complete distributions of variable data leads to inappropriate attribution of causes. One such might be looking at Houston rainfall data to conclude that “recent extremes are greater”. This is particularly ironic if even more extreme events had destroyed their recording stations.
A lot of damage…I hate to have to point this out….but that’s not a lot of damage
Look at the news today. There is significant damage. Homes and businesses demolished.
Now, go to youtube, and enter “q00 mph” – and see actual 100 mph winds.
‘100mph’ not ‘q00 mph’
If rainfall tallies are anything like what is being predicted – as much as 35 inches in some places, then the cries of “climate change” and “extreme weather” will reach epic proportions. Of course, drought, as in the 2011 drought, are also “climate change”. Funny that.
It will be interesting if the rainfall is unprecedented.
Steven M, it will not be.
During tropical storm Claudette in 1979, Alvin, Texas got 43 inches of rain in 24 hours.
“As the water rose, the National Weather Service issued another ominous forecast: Before the storm that arrived Friday as a Category 4 hurricane is gone, some parts of Houston and its suburbs could get as much as 50 inches (1.3 meters) of rain. That would be the highest amount ever recorded in Texas.”
the cries of “climate change” and “extreme weather” will reach epic proportions even if it does not rain. They have already been written, just leaving a blank to fill in the name of the storm.
“Hurricane Harvey downgraded to category 3 storm as winds weaken, makes 2nd landfall:”
http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-harvey-makes-landfall-texas-category-storm/story?id=49412285
WOW….so they changed the definition of a Category 4 storm and will now say that we’re getting “more severe storms” due to climate change. Oh, that’s man-made climate change for sure.
KTRK-TV (local station) says at the moment the eye is moving NW at 8 mph, winds are 60-80 mph nearby (not necessarily what is used in official measurements).
At 3am central time. Beeville Texas should be in the worst of it all.
They report wind at 43 mph, gusts to 47 mph.
Stick a fork in it. Earlier this evening, the weather guys were saying this was going to take a tour of th eGulf Coast with wind speeds of 75MPH and higher. Nope, not gonna happen.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXBEEVI3#history
ABC news just now:
Copano bay is a beautiful remote area, very lowlying and lightly populated. Refugio is the largest town, off the bay on a relatively high area. All the houses on the bay are built for heavy weather. I may be passing through their on the way to Corpus Christi this coming weekend.
If I do, I will be certain to report what I see.
Refugio , reassuring name !
A lovely small town built where it is due to the wisdom of the Spanish in noting where the Indians stayed for safety during heavy weather. Fishing and hunting in the area is marvellous.
In a separate note there is a large windmill installation on the northeast shore of Corpus Christi bay. They are huge and hideous, visible from across the large bay. I can only wonder how they have fared through this storm….
I’m waiting for Gore to now claim that the number of hurricanes has increased 10,000% with the arrival of Harvey. Gore’s camera crew is now deployed to film footage for his next epic – “Inconvenient Death Storms”
I thought fat slobs were supposed to die young. So why is Gore still waddling around?
Read somewhere now down to Cat2, losing power rapidly. No figures for storm swell, so I just it is not a major problem.
Weather channel
NHC:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been
discontinued south of Baffin Bay. The Hurricane Warning north of
Port O’Connor to Sargent has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.
now reports of Cat1. It’s blown itself out.
No figures for tides and storm surge, With half moon we are at neap tide part of cycle, so no extreme tides.
Flooding seems to be the remaining risk.
So 1886 takes the record for worst storms for Texas.
That was a period of cooling too. See graph in initial comments.
Steven Mosher August 25, 2017 at 8:30 pm
You forgot the cry of adaption not mitigation
If you live in an area prone to environmental danger adapt or move on. The Somerset levels have the same problem in UK the population will pay £200m to save 600 properties from flooding. Why am I paying to protect people who needed to consider the risks when they purchased properties.
Yes I believe in adaptation before mitigation.
we dont prepare for the weather of the past
Hurricane, tornadoes and flooding rain, it is a terrible event regardless of the final wind speed. If you want to help those affected:
https://give.salvationarmyusa.org/site/Donation2;jsessionid=00000000.app30108b?df_id=27651&mfc_pref=T&27651.donation=form1&NONCE_TOKEN=3A53A5C38DFA352E5611D258EAEBAC18
God protect the survivors and God bless America.
Most tropical weather is not tgat bad.
All of it is natural.
The vast majority of people are merely inconvenienced by storms.
It is long past time to back off the overwrought emotional responses.
Storms have and will be with us always.
The focus needs to be on those relative few impacted seriously.
The exception proves the rule. The end of the “hurricane” drought emphasises the length of that drought.
So, one storm ends a drought?
It will be fun if this one flyer/exception does not change the extrapolation into the future.
Weather prognosticators have no doxastic comittment or Skin In the Game (the title of N. N. Taleb’s next popular book).
Aw, come on Doug. You know how this works.
11 years and 10 months without a major striking the shores of the lower 48 was just luck! But a major striking anywhere in the lower 48 is confirmation of AGW/Climate change.
During the so called “Hurricane drought” the “scientists” decided that the “relationship” between Tropical Cyclone intensity and AGW/Climate change was very “complex”. But as soon as a couple more majors strike US shores that “relationship” will no doubt become simpler, like it was before, immediately after Katrina.
I lived across the ICW from where H. Hugo’s eye came ashore. Lots of hysteria, little consequence, even of H. Hugo there.
Hugo was pretty bad north of its track. Pine forests flattened with tree trunks snapped like match sticks. The National Guard wouldn’t let me drive all that far south of Myrtle Beach, so I walked and saw beachfront houses that had been up on twelve foot poles smashed two or three blocks inland, when I got down towards Surfside and Murrells Inlet. I sure was impressed.
Current radar indicates it has moved pretty far inland and has not yet stalled.
With the eye so far inland it must be weakening quite a bit.
My friends in Corpus Christi had windsvwell under 100 mph.
We in Houston are having strong but not flooding rains so far.
Streets in my flood prone area are still open and safely passable.
The winds are definitely tropical storm level, blustering, wet and extremely humid.
Our power went out for a few hours when a local transformer blew. Our wonderful neighbors let us tap into their generator and we kept the refrigerator going, but the power was back on in a few hours.
The storm bands, now that the eye is inland, are coming at such an angle that the rains tend to train long ways across our area, dumping rain with fewer breaks. This increases flood risks for Houston metro area.
So if the storm does stall in its current position we may see some of the flooding start.
Headed for the San Antonio Austin area it looks like now. I was in training at Ft. Sam Houston in San Antonio when Hurricane Allen came ashore near Brownsville in 1980 and came up our way as it dissipated. Some genius opened the fire escape door at the end of our barracks bay which was about 4 stories above the ground to get a better look. It took three of us pulling on the bar with all our strength to get that damned door closed.
None of our friends evacuated….they are all fine….gens up and running, they are making breakfast
Said there’s some trash and limbs down….
Still being reported as a CAT 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 215 kph, gusts to 270. No disrespect to those at the centre of this but the Aussie MSM are blowing this out of proportion.
Hyping far distant storms….or ignoring them….is a time honored double.
The story of Noah is perhaps the most ancient example of this….
BBC too.
Despite ‘No fatalities (sic – Zero is singular) confirmed’. Thank goodness
I think they mean that, so far, no fatality has been confirmed [but, unhappily, could be in the coming hours/days].
And – ‘unprecedented’: – here it is: –
“Recovery efforts and the clean-up in the wake of Hurricane Harvey will take “years”, officials say.
“This is going to be an unprecedented, long and frustrating event for the state of Texas,” the head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, Brock Long, told MSNBC.
“The recovery from this disaster is going to be years,” Mr Long added.
The storm has destroyed homes, severed power lines and forced tens of thousands of people to flee.”
From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-41060671 downloaded at 1830z/26 August 2017.
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BBC now says –
Live Reporting
Posted at 20:17 [Auto – British Summer Time = 1917Z/26th]
“Breaking
One dead in Rockport
Rockport’s mayor Charles J Wax says one person is known to have died in a house fire that started as Hurricane Harvey passed over the city.
It is the first confirmed fatality in the storm.”
Very sad that someone has died, but does 1 dead – even ten if, unhappily, there are other fatalities – is congruent with a category 4 storm?
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