Guest Post by Werner Brozek, and Edited by Just The Facts
In order to determine if records are possible in 2017, one must know the previous records as well as the average to date and what is required for the rest of the year in order for a particular data set to set a new record.
For the five data sets I cover, records were set in 2016. For now, I am not concerned about the statistical significance of the records, nor the number of decimal places. I merely want to know if the record can be beaten this year. At the end of the year, I plan on reporting any records and how statistically significant they are.
The above table shows the average 2016 anomaly for the five data sets. For the two satellite data sets, we have anomalies to July giving a seven month average, but the others only go to June as indicated giving a six month average. Then beside “need”, calculations were done to see what is needed for the remaining five or six months to set a record.
For UAH6, an average of 0.796 is needed. There is no way that this can occur. That number was surpassed only once in February 2016 with an anomaly of 0.856. A very strong El Nino would be needed and it is too late in the year for one to form and affect things for the next five months. I expect UAH6 to end up in fourth place for 2017 where it is now.
For RSS4, an average of 1.12 is needed. There is also no way that this can occur. That number was surpassed only once in February 2016 with an anomaly of 1.132. As with UAH6, a very strong El Nino would be needed and it is too late in the year for one to form and affect things for the next five months. I expect RSS4 to end up in fourth place for 2017 where it is now.
For HadCRUT4, the last six months require an average of 0.80 to set a new record. While it is a bit of a jump from the present six month average of 0.746, a new record cannot be ruled out at this time.
For Hadsst3, the last six months require an average of 0.684 to set a new record. Only strong El Ninos are capable of giving these kind of numbers for Hadsst3, so there is no way that the last six months can achieve this average.Hadsst3 seems destined to end up ranked in third place.
For GISS, the last six months require an average of 1.04 to set a new record. While it is a bit of a jump from the present six month average of 0.94, a new record cannot be ruled out at this time.
If you are wondering about RSS3, it is in the same boat as RSS4 with respect to rankings and will likely end up in fourth place. While there is no change in the yearly rankings between RSS3 and RSS4, I think that RSS4 has made the possibility of a return of a long pause virtually impossible, even with a long and strong La Nina.
Of course I could be wrong here, but we are not likely to find out for years since it looks like neutral ENSO conditions will prevail for the rest of the year at least. As well, the length of time for lack of statistically significant warming has been greatly reduced for RSS4 versus RSS3. It used to be over 22 years, but now it is only 16 years. By the way, WFT only shows RSS3 at the present time.
In the sections below, we will present you with the latest facts. The information will be presented in two sections and an appendix. The first section will show for how long there has been no statistically significant warming on several data sets. The second section will show how 2017 compares with 2016, the warmest year so far, and the warmest months on record so far. The appendix will illustrate sections 1 and 2 in a different way. Graphs and a table will be used to illustrate the data.
For this analysis, data was retrieved from Nick Stokes’ Trendviewer available on his website. This analysis indicates for how long there has not been statistically significant warming according to Nick’s criteria. Data go to their latest update for each set. In every case, note that the lower error bar is negative so a slope of 0 cannot be ruled out from the month indicated.
On several different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 0 and 23 years according to Nick’s criteria. Cl stands for the confidence limits at the 95% level.
The details for several sets are below.
For UAH6.0: Since April 1994: Cl from -0.010 to 1.748
This is 23 years and 3 months.
For RSS4: Since August 2001: Cl from -0.020 to 2.755 This is an even 16 years.
For Hadcrut4.5: The warming is statistically significant for all periods above five years.
For Hadsst3: Since February 2001: Cl from -0.016 to 2.500 This is 16 years and 5 months.
For GISS: The warming is statistically significant for all periods above five years.
This section shows data about 2017 and other information in the form of a table. The table shows the five data sources along the top and other places so they should be visible at all times. The sources are UAH, RSS, Hadcrut4, Hadsst3, and GISS.
Down the column, are the following:
1. 16ra: This is the final ranking for 2016 on each data set. On all data sets, 2016 set a new record. How statistically significant the records were was covered in an earlier post here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/26/warmest-ten-years-on-record-now-includes-all-december-data/
2. 16a: Here I give the average anomaly for 2016.
3. mon: This is the month where that particular data set showed the highest anomaly. The months are identified by the first three letters of the month and the last two numbers of the year.
4. ano: This is the anomaly of the month just above.
5. sig: This the first month for which warming is not statistically significant according to Nick’s criteria. The first three letters of the month are followed by the last two numbers of the year.
6. sy/m: This is the years and months for row 5.
7. Jan: This is the January 2017 anomaly for that particular data set.
8. Feb: This is the February 2017 anomaly for that particular data set, etc.
14. ave: This is the average anomaly of all available months.
15. rnk: This is the 2017 rank for each particular data set assuming the average of the anomalies stay that way all year. Of course they won’t, but think of it as an update 30 minutes into a game.
If you wish to verify all of the latest anomalies, go to the following:
For UAH, version 6.0beta5 was used.
For RSS, see: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
For Hadcrut4, see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.188.8.131.52.monthly_ns_avg.txt
For Hadsst3, see: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3-gl.dat
For GISS, see:
To see all points since January 2016 in the form of a graph, see the WFT graph below. Note that it shows RSS3.
As you can see, all lines have been offset so they all start at the same place in January 2016. This makes it easy to compare January 2016 with the latest anomaly. The thick double line is the WTI which shows the average of RSS, UAH, HadCRUT4.5 and GISS.
In this part, we are summarizing data for each set separately.
For UAH: There is no statistically significant warming since April 1994: Cl from -0.010 to 1.748. (This is using version 6.0 according to Nick’s program.)
The UAH average anomaly so far is 0.306. This would rank in fourth place if it stayed this way. 2016 was the warmest year at 0.510. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 2016 when it reached 0.856.
For RSS4: There is no statistically significant warming since August 2001: Cl from -0.020 to 2.755.
The RSS average anomaly so far is 0.532. This would rank in fourth place if it stayed this way. 2016 was the warmest year at 0.777. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 2016 when it reached 1.132.
For Hadcrut4.5: The warming is significant for all periods above five years.
The Hadcrut4.5 average anomaly for 2016 was 0.773. This set a new record. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 2016 when it reached 1.070. The HadCRUT4.5 average so far is 0.746 which would rank 2017 in third place if it stayed this way.
For Hadsst3: There is no statistically significant warming since February 2001: Cl from -0.016 to 2.500.
The Hadsst3 average so far is 0.542 which would rank 2017 in third place if it stayed this way. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2016 when it reached 0.732.
For GISS: The warming is significant for all periods above five years.
The GISS average anomaly for 2016 was 0.99. This set a new record. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 2016 when it reached 1.34. The GISS average so far is 0.94 which would rank 2017 in second place if it stayed this way.
A Personal Note
With rare exceptions, I wrote a monthly piece for the last four years. However over the last few months, I stopped writing as I went through a dark valley. As far as I know now, I had bone cancer since last December. However there was little sign of it for several months.
Then the pain got worse with each passing month. Before my 16 hour operation on June 8, I was taking 12 strong pain killers a day. However that does not mean I was always pain free before the operation. Often the pain would come back before I was supposed to take the next pills. Then it would take a half hour for the pills to kick in.
Fatigue was another issue. Before the operation, I always seemed to be tired no matter how much I slept. As well, the things that I was told to expect as a result of the operation are not for the faint of heart. Many people prayed for me and I thank Jesus for His help getting through it all. I am still recovering, however I am thankful that my right eye was spared, although it was close!